Bonus Episode: Sweet Election Victories From The 1990s

The 2019 election is on, but to look forward, we always need to look back, and we go far back into the archives to look at the events of elections from 1992 and 1993. But that's over 25 years ago: are age-old events from history still relevant today?

Of course! The similarities between UK Labour leader Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Bill Shorten in 2019 are striking. Like Shorten, Kinnock had been ahead in the polls for almost three years and everyone was backing Labour to win. And he also faced attacks from the Murdoch-backed media, culminating in the infamous and grammatically-challenged newspaper headline: "It’s The Sun Wot Won It".

The election systems are slightly different in the two countries: Australia has two-party preferred and compulsory voting; the UK has first-past-the-post and voluntary voting. Shorten is still favoured to win here, but we think he'd be looking at the 1992 UK election campaign for all the things to avoid; the biggest issue would be hubris and assuming victory just falls into the leader’s lap.

Scott Morrison will be trying to emulate Paul Keating’s feat in 1993 of winning the unwinnable election. Yes, in a two-horse race, anything is possible, but Morrison is not Paul Keating, he leads a very damaged Coalition, and is papering over all forms of corruption (alleged). So we still think it's very very unlikely.

But don't forget the big clichés: the only poll that matters is on election day, and it's not over until it's over.