Bill Kristol: Throw the Bums Out

0:00If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium. It has offline downloads, so you can watch without Wi-Fi. Background Play. So you can lock your phone and it still plays, baby. Oh, and it is completely ad-free. Yes, I said it ad-free. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Hell eligibility varies, terms apply, cancel anytime. Hello, and welcome to the Bullwork Daily. I'm your host Tim Miller. I just a scheduling item this week if everybody could bear with me. I'm traveling around a little bit and so we've got some great guests coming out this week. I'm not sure I'm going to be quite as on the news as I always am. And so go download the Bullwork Takes Feed because we've got some of the else's on it.

1:02Someone at the Bullwork is on the news no matter what. I am for starters tomorrow night going to be at Dartmouth at the alma mater of colleagues Sam Stein and we'll be together with our friend Liz Smith. I think that's at five o'clock at the aptly named Rockefeller Center for our people. So if you're up there and you hamps your Vermont, come hang tomorrow night and then I'm popping around a couple of other obligations. One other thing I didn't want to shout out, please keep in your thoughts and prayers the family of Deb Weiss, longtime Bullwork listener, commenter, viewer. She passed away over the weekend and we got to meet her at the Minnesota event. She had a long running battle with cancer and it was really inspiring. It was an emotional couple of nights in Minnesota and it was really gratifying to get to meet her and I was happy that I don't know if we're able to provide some comfort or for somebody that really cared about the country and wanted to know their people out there fighting.

2:04While she was fighting her cancer so shut out to Deb Weiss and her family. Bill Crystal is with us today. It is Monday of course and Bill you are with us then as well. Now I remember meeting Deb Weiss. She'd asked to come up and have a photo taken with us and she was clearly suffering from cancer and it was very moving. As you say it was an emotional end to an emotional couple of days and so I obviously had a she and her family and our thoughts and prayers enjoyed Dartmouth. It's a nice little school. It's kind of. It's not really but it's it's not how it is. I spoke there just a year ago. Kind of a four man's version of some of the other. One might do you and Sam Steinke discuss that. You should raise that probably on the panel. It's kind of a good talking point there and they'll appreciate it. For me it's I feel happy that like Sam and Liz you know tried hard in school in high school. They tested very well. They worked hard to get into Dartmouth as for me not really but I think I'm kind of the top bill tonight having not been brought into the Ivy. Yeah they're your supporting cast so that's that's good. You'll want to stress that at the beginning of the panel too.

3:04I think and I think if they put you up in the very nice and they put me up in when I spoke a year ago. There's a very good like authentic hand over donut shop right down right up block away. It's famous in Dartmouth not really outside Dartmouth. You'll want to go there and to mention that in your mark. I got a lot of credit somehow when I got there that I before so I had I was writing one trust that one and I remember going out of seven a.m. to get a coffee and I got a donut and a lot of credit for the locals for you know, patients. I like their fame donut shop whose name is escaping me. There's only one. There's only one is a baseball to out hand over donuts. I'll see you there tomorrow hand over donuts. All right. I want to start just briefly on you know because we covered a lot last week Springfield that our colleague Andrew Eger was back in Ohio over the weekend. There was a funeral for Pierre-Dommer-Sbel which is just devastating right about that in morning shots and then later that same evening Trump has this rally in a date and suburb. Among the things that struck me from his newsletter was that there were a bunch of other speakers.

4:08You know Vivek spoke. He tried to pick up a small child and was unable to drop the kid. John Hustead running for Senate spokes and other Republicans. Republicans that are you know right now subjecting this torture torment onto their neighbors, the Haitians. None of them said anything about it. And then you know Trump was not so timid he got up there and there were some deport deport chance and he started talking about Springfield and how it used to be a great place and we're going to make it a great place again. He kind of overlooked the fact that there was mass layoffs at Springfield plant over the weekend as well during his stewardship of the economy but I was wondering what you made of all that. First of all wonderful piece by Andrew and really moving and important. I would say reporting what a contrast the the tragic funeral then Trump's kind of good task rally. You know I spoke to Andrew obviously several times when he was out there and we talked and we did a show yesterday people could watch if they wanted to see Andrew reflecting on

5:10what he had seen yesterday morning on I guess it was Spurk on Sunday. But what struck me the most I hadn't realized from the reporting actually it shows how endured people out of Trump I'd skimmed to obviously a couple of reports of what Trump had said before talking with Andrew. They didn't even mention the fact that he he as you say no one else raised Springfield out of certain about a priority or attack maybe if nothing else. The rally was went 20 miles away at about three or four hours after the funeral. Yeah I don't know if it was attacked probably fear. Well yeah they they they'd be booed they figured by the medical political fear yeah I don't know no our political fear they know they're not a winner yeah I don't know yeah fair enough anyway so they didn't raise it for a different reason as you say and then Trump went out of his way to raise it I mean it wasn't as if the crowd chanting to port to port I believe followed on his endorsing the mass deportation agenda and then he read that horrible poem if it's a poem the steak thing you know yeah with reference to immigrants was sickly presumably therefore in that context to the Haitians who've been so horribly persecuted there and

6:13and pointlessly and easily persecuted and against the wishes of Ohio elected representatives not that they've done much about it but at least they've said it was a bad idea Mike DeWide and others so yeah I mean Trump the grotesque of the Trump rally was for our home in the conversation I had with Andrew both off air then on air yesterday but also it is peace this morning. I mean obviously the economic plans are working as we mentioned the layoffs in Springfield like there's no golden age you know Trump was always better at and all demagogues really are better at identifying somebody to blame somebody to point his little tiny finger at you know rather than actually doing things to help people and you know we're seeing that in Springfield we're seeing the other big story over the weekend the way in which it's a parallel I guess to the grotesque of Trump's rally is as you point out like it gets glossed over a little bit because it is such a dog bites man thing it's just like Trump oh Trump holds a rally and they have a racist chance

7:16like what more is there to cover about that like there's no news there it's not the new part of news but it's it's pretty telling that that's what was happening amidst all the horrors that are happening in Springfield meanwhile shut it to the Washington Sun to cover this here is another story in that same vein the crypto firm that runs Trump's meme coin was playing to hold another dinner I remember the first one they did right after he got in as president this one would be quote the most exclusive dinner in the world and evening with three legends and president Donald J Trump for the 185 largest holders of the Trump coin we should note that the number of legends promise dropped from four to three on Wednesday initially it was four so I'm unclear which legend dropped out of the dinner but there'll be three there the top 29 purchasers will be invited to an additional VIP reception with the president well the four biggest will also receive a Trump watch like this is and this is just straight bribery and the Trump meme coin has no value so this free will not follow crypto just to kind of understand like it's only value is in the

8:18sense that other people are going to purchase the coin right and so if you have other people purchase if you people buying lots of Trump coin in order to want to go to this dinner you know then the value of the coin will go up Trump family will get richer people that work for the company will get richer the other holders of the coin will you know offset some of the losses that they've had because the hell he's going down so much since his last dinner but um so that's all this is like it's just a straight bribe it's like you can and it's not even to donate to like a Trump pack or whatever I get straight into the family's bank accounts so it's like hey you go by our stupid coin and if you're one of the top 185 you can come to this dinner who are the top 29 you can hang out with the president and I like it is it is not in any way different from saying hey if you bring a bag of cash to the White House like we'll let you see the president right like that is all that that's all this is it's just an additional form and am I right that they don't release the names

9:19of these people right since it's a private business they don't have to right so we don't know who the 29 biggest bribers of Trump are that's right and the last time the reporters out there you know because I think it was that is Virginia um uh clavine going from memory um on that but so like you would recognize some faces right if you came and uh and that's where you know there were some people who got partens was the corrupt crypto guy just in sun chinese national corrupt guy got part in and is now putting a bunch of money into the Trump family so I you know at some level I guess if you want to show up to the dinner and you're a notable um or you're in the market for a pardon you might get spotted by one of the people out there but no but right other than that like you can you can give to this coin and and total anonymity at least for now and we'll see what what our friend Robert Garcia and the and Jamie Raskin and folks on oversight are able to to tease out from that yeah the the corruption we'll talk about it every week and one probably should and one thing so we've been down that road before but it is so astounding and so shameless that

10:22it's worth reminding and I do think this is an issue where don't you think politically it's done him it's under more harm with the public in a way than it has with you know reporters and elite types who've known this was going on it's not that he just countered it internally I do think for the it is so shameless though and so obviously wrong you know also because of those state of the economy it's only things that maybe you could have got away with this if the economy was good but just people are looking at this and it's like okay like the president's literally getting bribed like his family is getting richer and richer you know I think there have been some Democrats who've been particularly good at tying these things together right and it is kind of incumbent on not position party to to do that effectively right and Tallerika has been really strong on this basically you know talking about making direct tie between the Trump family and the corrupt oligarchs around him getting rich and enriching themselves you know while people struggle and while people's gas prices are going up and while he's doing nothing to improve the economy for regular folks and so let's I want to kind of go through the midterm state of play here

11:27with you all right so we have a spate of new polls out from New York Times C&A over the weekend that are pretty good in certain some places we can really get high on the hope you'm here and a little bit of mixed bag of some other places in Alaska we have Peltola plus seven in Texas Tallerika plus six and notably Hinoosa and the governor's race up four in the New York Times C&A poll of Texas Ohio we've shared Brown plus three Amy Acton plus four in the governor's race in Iowa that you've got Ashley Henson the Republican leading by one over Josh Turrick and then Rob Sand leading by 11 in the governor's race and then in Kansas we have our guy Adam Hamilton in a tie 45 45 with Roger Marshall with a libertarian taking five percent so that's kind of the top line number you pointed out bill the Trump favorability number which I think is pretty striking here on social media I'll just read it Alaska Trump's at 41 percent favorable 56 unfavorable in June it was just 47 49 so significant

12:33drop to minus 15 in Iowa he's minus 18 40 favorables 58 unfavorable in Kansas minus 15 40 percent favorable in Kansas for President Trump and Ohio 38 percent favorable 59 percent unfavorable and in Texas he's at 40 percent unfavorable so as high watermark there was Alaska at 41 percent significantly down from June all states the Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024 yeah I mean that gives you a sense of what that's why it's a way for right you win states by 10 points and you're your favorables at 40 basically it all those states now and correspondingly your Senate candidates losing a three of them tied in one and by one point in one it is a real wave and that this confirms it for me and it seems to you know the Senate races are they're individual factors and that's probably why some of them are plus six and seven and others were plus three or even yeah that's a pretty startling number and so early of Trump is at 40 in those states what's he adding states that were five points better for Trump in 2024 45 47 he's not at 50 probably so a

13:34lot of states like Idaho yeah Idaho's yes I know yes I know but are obviously in the Nebraska's of the world anyway I'll get a couple of those in a second but it is a very striking and this is a New York Times Seattle they took 600 voters in those states each of those states it's a national quality poll most state level polls are a little they're real polls they just go through the kind of controls and complicated waiting that I've got to say the time Seattle does pretty seriously and if you read Jonathan Cohn's account of it it's pretty remarkable Nate Cohn Jonathan Cohn I'm sorry our Jonathan Cohn yeah the the other cone his account of it it's pretty careful so I take these numbers pretty you know pretty seriously yeah I did too it kind of matches what I would expect it I mean the Peltola number I think Alaska is very challenging to pull that I can bring up seven who knows I mean maybe but the rest of them match kind of what I had thought I think I was going to be the toughest again if you look at that main those four main races of Alaska Texas Ohio and Iowa like the idea was that Democrats need to win three to get to 52 which is a

14:36Federman proof majority assuming they also hold on to Maine and Michigan and I've always felt that Alaska Texas to know Iowa are the best options because Iowa I do think it's tough ask of the people of Iowa to vote for a Democratic Senator and governor the Republican Ashley Henson is a good candidate I mean disgusting but you know not as obviously disgusting as Roger Marshall and some of these other Ken Paxton for example and so that makes sense to me the other thing I thought you were going the other way of where is Trump's approval and some of these other states where is Trump's approval in Maine and Michigan if he's at 40 in these states and he's down in the low 30s you have to imagine and this is why I just continue to be more bullish on on Abdul-Altzayad and Troy Jackson that some of the other folks out there and I think it's always good to be vigilant and to run through the tape and I think Susan Collins has a stronger brand than the Republicans running in these red states but it's just hard to imagine where Republicans winning and states where Trump is in the 30s favorability right I mean one other little thing that maybe too

15:41little to maybe it's just random but I think it's sort of interesting Trump's numbers have dropped four or five points in these states since in three months since late June when the last time New York Times C.E.N. upholded so it's Apple St. Apple's comparison nationally I look it up and the Times average example Trump's down a couple of points from over the last two months he's been drifting down but you know it's been a pretty slow process nationally in terms of approval you know sort of 39 to 30s happens something like that in these states which are the weaker Trump states are not that weak because they're better than plus 10 but still not not the Trumpiest Trump states and in states which have been very competitive of the last few months in terms of paid media advertising at earned media Trump's numbers have gone down more and these races have opened up in a democratic direction you could say from that that the more voters are learning or the more advertising there is the more attention there's focus on the race the worse the Republican does not buy a massive amount but buy a couple of points yeah and if that were to continue through October that would be very important obviously in these states but especially in Iowa and Kansas which

16:43are yet to even and maybe in a few other states I mean anyway I think it's an interesting little phenomenon and that would be true also congressional districts does tell me Democrats should really I mean I don't know this is the time for people to get money honestly because the Republicans will outspend the Democrats in October but minimizing that margin and really focusing democratic resources where it could matter seems to have mattered over the last three months yeah I just look at Texas for an example I mean they spent tens upon tens of millions of dollars in the airwaves going after Tallerico calling him Taller Frico and talking about all the genders there are and all this other cultural or nonsense it's been the whole ad campaign and his saverability hasn't dropped at all and meanwhile Trump's favorability is going down significantly in the state over that period as you said from you know 44 52 in June to 40 58 right now I that's just where the movement has been I think we'll see one potential learning from this is you know going back to the 24 campaign you know the big ad that everybody talked about is that you know Kamala's for the them Trump is for

17:45you and it's was kind of like everybody focused on the they them part of the ad but the you part was an important part of the ad like the Trump being for you and and and a lot of these center races particularly in Texas they're just running the Tallerico's for they them part of the race and that doesn't really seem to be resonating you know when when there's no counterbalance now again who know like maybe there's undercounting of people maybe you know maybe there's response bias maybe we'll feel differently about this November but just based on what we know now that's a potential I think interesting development I think all these Senate candidates that you think are I'm saying this in a non not making a value judge which is so analytically I think it's stronger candidates than Harris probably didn't have her baggage much of that baggage was not her fault she was vice president in the Biden administration which is in office and unpopular none of these people is I'm right about this is an office I think or if they're an office their state represent share it has been an office yeah but you've been out charak is a state representative and Peltola was in Congress so yeah but

18:46they're out and they're not guilty event they're they're running as challengers and this is a good year to be a challenger yeah right for sure Harris couldn't really write as a challenger yeah no she couldn't and just is another thing because it's really solved the discourse out there with people trying to rerun the Harris race and learn lessons from it's like in some ways Harris ran a kind of a more establishment race of course she was the vice president as you mentioned she also is from California she was a senator from California and a black woman and like all of that you know kind of created an image of her as kind of like you know for some people to establishment and for other people to liberal right and like a lot of these candidates you know don't have any of those issues their local candidates running local races they're not they don't have the incumbent baggage one interesting kind of discussion I've been saying and I think this is probably not going to happen but the money sink for Ken Paxton is really pretty astonishing and they they might spend they will spend more money on the Ken Paxton Senate race than George W Bush spent in the primary and general

19:50of his 2000 presidential win just as one example it'll be probably a quarter of a billion dollars put in total and Ken Paxton and you just look at that and it's like man Tal Riko as numbers continue to be high you almost I feel the Republicans have to be tempted to throw in the towel in Texas which is kind of a crazy thing to say but you could take all of the money you're spending to save corrupt disgusting Ken Paxton and use it to cover all of these other races because all these other states I'll ask a I will get there they're all small states I don't think that they're going to do that but that's an interesting dot exercise now totally and and the $200 million you spend in a race is much less valuable than the 20 million for the 2 million right I mean I mean I mean even holding constant so to speak the size of the states you know you just your marginal return from the 5,000th time you show an ad is just going to be less the theme about the Democrats is their comment as their socialists their radicals but it doesn't quite yet especially in a midterm that ultimately is a referendum on Trump that's the main thing to be said

20:50obviously Trump's numbers remain the driving force but I think the secondary but not not on important forces the failure to be able to demonize the Dems and I what do you think do you think anything is really sticking at this point I'm a little bit obviously but not much right remember all the Fox and Wish can I stay after my mdani what in New York and then after I say it was nominated in Michigan that's the face of the Democratic Party it's going to be easy to turn all these other guys into those people not so much I mean I'm really happy I'm going to even church else I eat until I say eat actually since you right it was actually Michigan but I was going to say his numbers are a little soft compared to the rest of that but I mean I think else I was going to win handily but his numbers are a little softer than kind of his peers in these Senate races but like that's really the only evidence of anything and I saw some you know discussion kind of on background and this some of the Beltway Rags of a Deleek and from Republican strategist basically admitting like the else I had Piker 911 stuff just isn't working at all and like they're not seeing it working in the numbers which isn't surprising to me

21:55once the night start getting cooler there's nothing better than getting into a really cozy bed at the end of the day bundle in yourself up feeling some warm sheets a soft duvet that extra layer a little extra layer that's nice it's not really I mean for me I'd rather just have it be summer and I have no sheets but unfortunately this is what we're at now you know coming into the cold season I'm going up to New England as soon as the show is over so I've kind of need some fucking warm sheets and covers there and I hope that the hotels that I'm staying at must the sheets from our friends of Quince Quince doesn't just make comfy clothes that I've been wearing for you it also makes hotel quality bedding using premium natural materials designed for lasting comfort they got 100% European linen that's woven from premium flags and get softer with every wash while their organic cotton bedding is breathable soft and made for every day comfort

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23:56that's the best way to support our show I want to go to our sleeper racists we said we're going to do this once a week last week as mentioned Bill crystal had the Idaho Senate race and he just kind of went way deep okay for you know the deep cuts I was I was a little more modest you know I was I was choosing a race that was like in in the likely Republican in the cook rankings rather than the three deepest red states in the country but I would be like Bill crystal's boldness before you do this week I want to mention you you fly this from his point of view the race that I mentioned that's like Jessica Killing running color of springs district in Colorado color of five she's running against Jeff crank I think I got a quasi misspoke last week so just this quick question of Jeff crank that is his real name Jeff crank great name very apt name for the Republicans in the cycle I know him because he's been around Republican politics forever in in Colorado but he's only been the rep for this district resolio's Doug Lamborn seat but he's a long time operative more

25:00of a tea party type than a mega type and Jessica Killing's campaign had a pretty brutal ad that they put up tying him to the Epstein cover up let's watch that my sister Virginia was one of Jeff Re-Ebstin's victims she spent her life trying to expose the truth after she died we promised to carry on her fight but our own congressman Jeff crank refused to meet with us then when he had the chance to expose the truth and release the Epstein files he repeatedly voted to cover them up for Virginia and deserve better pretty powerful I mean I do think that Epstein has has dropped a little bit down from kind of the Democratic messaging just because Trump has stepped on so many rakes there been so many opportunities but I still think that it's something that it's compelling both for swing voters but also you know in a midterm exciting year side to to engage to throw the bombs out and tamping down the other side and you imagine if you're a Colorado mega Republican you're like who is this guy Jeff Cranks not doing anything he's covering up the Epstein files why am I

26:04wasting my time to go vote for him I think that's potentially effective in that regard I agree Ohio I think Epstein's been a little more of an issue where as you say the Democrat is a hit by four points for governor and three points for Senate and it's because one of the main Republican donors in Ohio less waxed her turns out to have been a very close associate of Epstein and the big donors to the Republican Party there so yeah I think I said this the other day but I was talking to Governor Polis a while back and his big bold bell crystal style prediction was that Democrats could win all eight districts in Colorado and have an Edo House delegation I've thrown at the the Boburt seat and the Jeff Cranks seat as the two or the ones that I've recommended people contribute to I think are potentially getable the Cranks seat is the most goodable then you have heard out there in Western Colorado and then I think it's a feedback from you that I didn't mention the car to eighth district which is Manny Rutt and all handsome Manny I talked about him with Jesse Layreck in the podcast couple weeks ago the reason I didn't mention him is just because I like that is a northern Denver suburbs basically up to for Collins

27:07and handsome Manny's kind of a lefty type candidate and I just I think that in the suburbs like the Democrats are gonna sweep this year so I've been trying to focus on more red districts and like and identifying good candidates running in red districts rather than you know kind of more left candidates running in purple districts but if that's your cup of tea that that's Colorado eighth district is also you know one that Democrats are going to need to win all right let's go to your pick for this week Bill unless you get something on that no I don't and you know last week I was focused I've been focused the last few weeks on the Midwest Iowa great plain states Kansas to Brasca maybe South Dakota and then Rocky Mountain Idaho the reach the reach state of those but I think there's a lot going on out there with and special issues that are hurting Trump out there Tara is most obviously but also the war at diesel fuel and so far now okay I want to go south this week these are less extreme these are more to miller ask for diction it's kind of plausible but a little bit of a reach you know I mean let's what about Florida and South Carolina for the center races I've been I mean dubious about the South is the toughest to crack because the

28:09white working class voters are deserting Trump no question if you look at some of these the internals and the polls including the times Santa Poles which really are worth looking at the at the cross tabs but the white working class up in the north and the Midwest tends to be less evangelical so the evangelical white working class is the toughest not to crack there are a lot of them and really a lot of them in in the deep south obviously but quite a few in Florida and South Carolina but a the polling shows those races pretty close and she nicks and basically tied I think in Florida any Andrews behind a few points Lindsey Graham sister in South Carolina Florida I don't know people just decided it's impossible because the Sanctus went so big it was a one one one and a half points state in 2018 the last time there was a big term for Trump Trump wanted by 13 points 13 point one in 2024 which is less it was same as you want to last goodbye it's a little less than anyone I owe in Texas by so if I owe in Texas or in play why shouldn't Florida be in play that's my my attitude there against the undistinguished incumbent I think it's safe to say Angie Dixon at a

29:10pretty good good editorial candidate David Chal I use funding pretty well against the bad Republican Democratic candidate so I'm sort of bullish on Florida big state expensive state South Carolina small or state seems a little crazier on the other hand that was a 17 by 18 point state for Trump in 2024 people kind of have the image of South Carolina is being like I don't that's not quite right 18 points is a lot but you know it's four points more than the states that Trump Republicans have now in danger of losing these little more of a swing I looked it up though in 2020 that famous race for Lindsey Graham crush Jamie Harrison after the Democrats spent a hundred billion dollars there maybe not the best expenditure in 2020 that was a 10 point race I don't know is it unreasonable to think that any Andrews could run 10 points better against Lindsey Graham sister in in the off-year election the midterm election of 2026 when Trump is a 35% naturally he's probably under water as South Carolina actually it's not unreasonable to think that South Carolina is very much in place so Florida and South Carolina for the Senate okay I look I'm twice bit

30:15on well I'm only one's bit but you know Democrats are twice bit on South Carolina I predicted Hillary to win South Carolina 2016 on TV so I I'm trying not to go down that path again and then you mentioned the Jamie Harrison debacle it's tough I like both of the candidates I think full work listeners are probably me hearing from both of them soon and we're gonna be in Columbia I think there are literally two tickets left for the Columbia South Carolina event so go get it right now the block.com slash events if you want to come hang out and we'll talk about the any Andrews race there with the locals and I look Angie Nixon is so it's such a spidfire I like her she is running what I would say is the model race for somebody that comes from the left flank one of the problems as we kind of discuss the DSA type candidates I going forward is that in Democratic primaries DSA was very invoked this past primary season will be next one I don't know we'll see that it's still seen as a little bit of like baggage kind of in the general election like it's kind of weird even pro DSA people I've seen some of them be like don't call our candidate socialist and it's like well

31:18you you join the DSA I know you know it's a little bit of a mixed bag so she's one of these that's kind of I think it was like a normal liberal progressive candidate that like comes a DSA member to get a little boost you know in primary but she's running I just think a very sharp race that she dispenses with all of the baggage that some of the other candidates from that kind of faction have struggled with navigating some of the tougher questions on that stuff so anyway I think she's a strong candidate Florida's tough I I think that what we might end up learning is that Florida is now the base of the Republican Party not Texas if it does turn out the David Jolli because I look because I my point is David Jolli and Angie Dixon I think are running good races so if it turns out that they still lose by big numbers and Talleriko wins it just might say more about I think the demographics of Florida you know Tampa or Landau Jacksonville like these these are democratically different places than Houston Dallas Austin San Antonio that's my main caution of Florida as I

32:19just I kind of think that the suburban Orlando people are meaningfully different than the suburban Dallas people at least from the voting kind of standpoint we'll see yeah I agree with that and that people who do I put some of what it to me the other days the the Afro-Middle class or wealthy people who've moved to Florida who there are a lot are different from the Afro-Middle class people who've moved to Austin Texas right or even maybe Houston Dallas suburbs and so yeah that's a little better for the Republicans on the other hand I mean Trump benefited hugely in 2020 and Republicans did subsequently with the swing in the Latino vote obviously in Florida yeah I do wonder about that now I mean with obviously immigration stuff so we know for sure the bottom is falling out in Texas and we're seeing this I mentioned the Bobby Polito race last week and that guy that had Tana senior he's running like 30 points better than Trump was running in his district again the Hispanics are different to them like is that is that happening in the Cuban community than his whale and we'll find out I think they're both good to flag so in the Andersen angi next and my pick is for this week is Zach Dembo running in Kentucky six I was at

33:22a wedding this weekend Kentucky that's good to you you decided you decided I was being you know you didn't want me to be outfliking you here yeah I don't want to get hold of you I built crystal on the predictions I was in Lexington this weekend I went to Keen about my friends to shout out Thomas and JT they got married congratulations and went to Keenland and there were some more work people of Keenland let's just say this I was recognized more at Keenland than I am at LSU games so I think that there's a meaningfully difference between Lexington and Baton Rouge just anecdotally as far as the demo there the district is seven points more Republican than national so I think that that means it's less Republican than South Carolina so it's still a little bit more reasonable than what you have thrown out there candidates Zach Dembo is Lexington native navy Jagger officer prosecutor was teacher in Mississippi so I just has a great bio long time Lexington family he's running his Ralph Alvarado who is from California moved to Kentucky was on the Matt Bevin ticket as the

34:26lieutenant governor lost to Andy Beshear so he's a loser then he moved to Tennessee moved back to Kentucky to run again he was investing there's some Medicare fraud scheme happening in legislature there he was wrapped up in that investigation he's maha little wishy washy on the vaccine stuff I don't know you know Lexington Kentucky it could some of the capital college town it's a little bit of a stretch but the Democrats have a stronger candidate and it's not crazy to think that that would be potentially gettable so there we go I'm throwing the I'm throwing Kentucky six under the map I mean I slightly ridiculed not ridiculed but slightly raised a it's like you know an eyebrow back Kentucky but of course that was stupid to me because Kentucky's elected a Democratic governor twice in a row Andy Beshear probably won that district that congressional district has probably been reapportioned if one they'd usually do the math for you on this it's probably won that district by a bunch of points right I mean you won the state so that is obviously we're Democratic the most of the state so it's not like they've never voted for a

35:28Democrat in Kentucky six you know it's I think those that's I think that's a good pick I'm with you on thank you I'm with you on that one thank you Bill you know I'm an over researcher particularly when it comes to hotels and travel stuff I want it to be good I get disappointed in myself if we get to have a little getaway and doesn't turn out that the plan is exactly right like I'm not really ain't all about most stuff that that's something that I'm ain't all about and I'm sure that you all you have something that that you're like that about and there are other issues though where you just you just want somebody to make it as easy for you as possible you don't want to be the one doing all the research and that is certainly the case for me when it comes to life insurance luck quote is life insurance broker that does the homework for you the license agent shop over 100 policies and find you a better rate for free with slight quote giving life insurance is fast free and easy the whole process takes about 15 minutes answer a few questions or agents shop the carriers for you and you get your quote tailored to your specific situation even if you've got something

36:33like high blood pressure or diabetes select code has been doing this for over 40 years the reviewers are rave and you can just add me to that pile shopping for the quotes are so easy it's fast something that I needed to do you know I'm in middle age now I don't want to waste a lot of time on it and select quote hooked me up easy cheap recommend get your free quote at select quote dot com slash bulwark that select quote dot com slash bulwark select quote dot com slash bulwark they shop you safe all right well we're staying in the south I want to yell at the former soon to be former senator from North Carolina another place for you know there's we'll see everybody in Charlotte in a couple weeks time to us as a book out called how to lose friends and antagonize presidents it's kind of a bold name for the book there I don't I can antagonize I kind of puffing yourself up a little bit I don't know how quite how antagonistic he was but there's a 60 minutes segment on them last night

37:34that one of my friends texted be almost caused from the stroke out and so I decided to tune into that as well get my blood pressure going last night I want to play a little bit for that around here if you're in motion you're generally ahead and if you're not then you're behind keeping up with Tom Tillis on Capitol Hill is not for the faint of heart he knows the US Capitol inside out the passageways staircases the Capitol subway system the president called Tillis a talker and complainer not a doer I respect the president I still feel like we have an odd relationship where I've clearly made him angry but it took years before even made the first negative comment about me but I react to anybody on this earth the same way if you come at me with with what I think is unfair or incorrect data I'm gonna come back after you so there's that clip I don't I don't know if that's really right I mean has he come back after Trump

38:37did he go back right after him it doesn't doesn't really see it feels like he thinks he's attacking Trump more than he actually is yeah no kidding I mean oh god I've glad I didn't know about this I would have said well I wouldn't unlike you I wouldn't have felt obliged to actually tune in I would do and so my memory of last night will be the excellent fantastic walkie brewers walk off hit winning the game against the Padres and San Diego and Milwaukee actually with the crowd going wild as opposed to was Ross Delfat the host or interviewer well they've taken on Trump yeah maybe you're not aware of not like you never tried to grab a truck just TDS ties but those guys have had the muted sophisticated analysis of Trump it's really done a lot of damage to Trump it really helped save the country from him Tom Till look at all those courageous votes Tom Tillis cast and said it yeah the one um against the tax bill when they stored the votes anyway he probably would have 30 five would have folded right if they didn't have

39:38the votes anyway so it's just two guys telling each other great job that's their modest criticism of Donald Trump over the past fucking 10 years my main reaction to that is I'm taking people behind the curtain a little bit I've invited Tom Tillis on the show probably a dozen times and it's fair I would understand why Tom Tillis might not want to come on the show because as as we just demonstrate it neither of us are particularly impressed with him but I will say this I have definitely come for him and I've come for Tom Tillis many many times um the person who confirmed Trump's entire ridiculous clown cabinet and and like was confused and didn't think that the attorney general or the Trump himself would part in all the January 6th rioters I mean Tom Tillis like doesn't seem to be aware with what is happening around him because he just fully goes on board with everything that Trump wants and then at the end is like well I mean I mean we only know that this was going

40:40to go bad it's like well yeah we all knew Tom we all knew you've been a total coward in a weakling and you think that you're a tough guy and I'm just gonna say if if somebody comes for you you come back for them invites open baby invites open come on anytime we can hang out I'll fly to North Carolina you can come on the show anytime they're so tough such a fighter of anybody that criticized you you'll have nothing but time in your hands next year because you quit the Senate rather than trying to actually take on Trump you can stay in the race could have tried to take on Michael Lotley and Roy Cooper but you didn't do it you quit because you're scared of Trump and so I don't know maybe you're scared of me too we'll see one other Tom Tillis clip I do have to play now that my damners up let's turn to bat hold him responsible for the struggle in the Iran war because you've said that you supported the initial decision to go to one end you know I think that they got so caught up after the immense success of the first strike that Hegseth probably didn't listen to his best military advice and say now we should probably move to a different

41:44posture he's calling for Hegseth to resign you know I'd like to think that most of the time the president would be surrounded with people who would finally say Mr. President if you do that I'm walking out this door there's a Russian expression if only the czar knew which means people don't want to blame the czar when bad things happen they want to blame his advisors but in this case with Trump it's on him right in the end whoever he has around him well he's the czar Truman famously said that the buck stops here get a good line I get that but Truman had great advisors what it's Trump it's Trump I mean I access a fucking buffoon and you can turn to run the Secretary of War to be the Secretary of War like that's true but like it's Trump Trump like is on board for everything like this whole like good star bad boy are thing he's got going still even when he's not running for Senate again like what is the wake up it's fantastic that Tillis raises I guess the famous Truman

42:52the buck stops here thing which makes the point therefore that analogously the buck stops the Trump someone must have told him that once as like a bit of a rebuke and he is now figured out his answer to that which is well but Truman actually had good advisors so the buck didn't stop the Truman so Truman was I mean what you know who picked Trump's advisor who picked the advisors who confirmed the advisors like Trump did you did a Jew and Trump Tom Tillis and Donald Trump you guys did this and then till it's like I supported the war at the start like why if you thought that hegs up was so bad why would you support us like starting a war of choice with a run what what was the different tack rostin that's that follow question what was the different tack you wanted them to take like once the war started he was like we're so it was so successful the first couple days it's like welcomed any war like there's so many cliches about that like yeah um you know anything uh you know what's the let's the old line about how like everybody has a plan till

43:52we get punched in the face the Mike Tyson line it's like that's true about anyway sure he had a good congrats on the first two days but like the whole fundamental problem was that there was no strategy for securing that success beyond it I mean I can't keep track of these if the handful of these cowardly Republican senators and exactly which ones they pretended to vote again you know which Trump policies or nominees they've very rarely voted against almost always when it wouldn't make a difference but to Tillis Tillis did not vote against blanche right I believe no tell us was someone tell us in Cassidy with the whole show yeah that's like how they're concerned I know Cornyn was in there too yeah yeah so right and then Tillis deferred to Cornyn and Cass some of his he was entry to share I can't remember to boy yeah it was an absolute so this was like recent right blanche thing was after all Tillis had learned all these horrible things about how important Trump's advisors were the cabinet right that's the thing you really and everything blanche had been deput it been there running justice basically under pan bonding then running out of sacking a

44:53territory general for several months then Tillis went along it's a great point because it's like okay even if you take Tillis's view of the world which is that you know Trump won and we wanted to be supportive and I trusted Mr. Trump the economy was good back the first time and so I want to give him a chance okay the blanche nomination vote was last month that was like five weeks ago you got to see a year and a half of how things were going and you still voted to confirm blanche after he was on the move Maxwell and you know we all know the whole thing it's come on the show Tom it'll be fun see this would be great content we'd love to have you and and you you told the nation last night that you'll come after anybody it comes after you so here we are always available for you a bit guy hey have you ever hit one of those this content isn't available in your region walls and you get really annoyed with proton VPN it's easy to change your virtual locations so you can access

45:53the sites and contents you need no matter where you are it's something that I ran into when we're at our live event Toronto last year I miss you guys in Toronto we got to go back to Canada in 2027 I think it's trying to watch out for you against all this we ended up losing so I don't know I guess the proton VPN would have been more would have sparked more joy if all is you at one it's still I was nice to have a chance it was nice to feel like I had a chance and I was able to thanks to our friends of proton VPN it's a secure VPN service design for people who want to prioritize their digital privacy and security it keeps what you do online private and let you access the internet like it should work open secure and on your terms unlike most VPNs proton is backed by a strong European privacy laws and years of expertise creating a safer faster and more open internet for everyone it all works seamlessly so you can be confident you're getting an extensive server network high-speed connections integrated ad blockers and compatibility services without restrictions over 145 countries you can watch your team and your traveling tip it's easy to get started right now proton VPN is offering our list is 70% off a two-year plan when you go to proton VPN.com slash

46:57the bulwark that's pr o t o and VPN.com slash the bulwark for 70% off your two-year plan that's proton VPN.com slash the bulwark speaking of Iran really quick big story today out is that the continued hormone is dreadlock is creating global food crisis international chamber of commerce chief said that available fertilizer capacity has fallen nearly 40% straight straight was disrupted this goes the way that it looks like it's going to go which is the midterms happen and then there's another escalation like we in addition to the energy shock that we're going through like we could be staring down the barrel so a major global food crisis disaster of the global four but even for here in America you know more increased grocery costs and geopolitically as Saudi who the war who the war has has heated up that that those who do some we crack hexath crushed back in over a year ago and was was prancing around talking about how devastating those military strikes had been and even the idiotic talking point I'd say the idiotic talk

48:02quite well but the you know the straight has been opened up sort of there are more ships going actually sort of close down again over the last few days but anyway the reason it opened up was people worked out very complicated workarounds which is good the market does do that and it's doing that at a hundred dollars a barrel for oil because so we're living these gas prices are what they are you know 30% high right so all this idiotic kind of you know pro Trump you know Trump adjacent talking point by the seven remaining Iran who also want to be defending Trump's policies there is ludicrous right I mean and totally ludicrous javiel wrote about this last week and by the way it's because it's around war hawks I don't you don't you don't engage much in the discourse as some others and I admire you for that bill um but I will say there's some discourse out there on the internet that some people may have seen about how us you me Sarah JVL are all like really excited to bring back the neo-con war hawk leadership to the democratic party and I just want to like say to like do any of those people that are offering that critique or watch the show it doesn't

49:04seem like it multiple times a week I continue to like rip democratic establishment for not being harder against the war I continue to think that the democrats should have a more clear consistent visible anti-war posture with the Iran war and from the minute this stupid war started we're all like this is idiotic when there were a lot of democrats including some in congress that we're like voting for continuing to fund the war and and we're being cautious and saying well I don't you know the itoel is bad like yeah the itoel is bad but this is obviously a strategically stupid war and we have two idiots running it and they have no plan and the democrats should try to recapture some of the like anti-war mantle that Trump took with his lies in the 2024 campaign like that's my view on all this and I don't I don't know it's it's a little confusing that I think people are misunderstood misinterpreting and it is a year-fault I guess what I'm saying bills I think it's your fault it's your fault yeah it is my fault also it's very confusing that you and I and I think

50:08most of the bullwork are very hawkish on Ukraine if you want to call that very bleached strongly it should be defended we could have done war on the Biden and certainly should be doing much work to help them now and to oppose Putin but that's like and people's heads explode if you're against the dictator invading a neighbor which was the case with a democratic neighbor and you think you should help it and it help our allies in Europe help it and that you're deeply skeptical about a unilateral unnecessary attack on Iran bad regime though that is it's like that's too complicated for people like us to be hawkish on Ukraine and against the Iran war I mean it's obvious it's kind I don't know why it's complicated because there are the two obvious positions to take for anybody with eyes and experience and you know an understanding of of you know what the likely outcome was going to be in Iran and and what is really happening in Russia and what what Putin's plans are but anyway whatever there we go that's my discourse take people have been clamoring for that another paperwork thing you should be working on if you get to my age or older

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52:15will has bank level encryption and secure sharing features the most important documents in detail stay protected trust and will affordable estate plans price with peace of mind go to trust and will dot com slash bullwork you get 20% off that's trust and will dot com slash bullwork while we are at russia really quick and it's maybe another plague and I gotta tell you I don't I don't I can't do another pandemic okay this is just I'm just speaking personally for me I cannot do it all right I don't know I think I'll have to create like a massive we might just have to create a bullwork molecule without the sex part like where we get a big warm big warm somewhere in Louisiana or Florida like a ranch and everybody lives together because I cannot be alone in my house again okay I'm just saying that that is my plan if we have another pandemic I we're gonna have to create a community with alcohol but the story here for anybody who's been

53:20trying to keep their ostrich on it can't get over I can't get over the bullwork molecule not sexual bullwork molecule no I even even not sexually it'll be very yeah I think maybe down south of you I'm thinking of volunteering our somewhat modest pleasant backyard here in Georgia Virginia but we can have two you know we can have two that's true and I guess a private plane that moves people the bull we're playing could fly us back and forth no problem yeah we're gonna need some more subscribers for that so go to the bullwork dot com slash subscribe if you want to support the potential need for a private jet if we have another pandemic here we go a 28 year old female laboratory technician at the earth's duks you know how to say that one or kutsk or kutsk I think it was in risk wasn't or kutsk in risk I'm pretty sure it was one of the one of the things you can control and risk okay anyway at the earth kutsk research anti-plague institute of Siberia a 28 old female laboratory technician died after being diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown origin a test tube broke at the anti-plague institute so that's not great

54:26a shishia you had on several times a bullcon sunday very good as an advisor on covid to Biden said this is the situation he's worried about for a long time he said it's the most likely scenario something bad happening not that a country with a weapons program decides to use it but there's an accidental release from a deliberate program he's saying the basequake if you look at you kind of various pieces of evidence what we know about this this is you know was a deliberate program that Russia was developing out in Siberia hopefully the Siberians stay there and so this blows over so to speak but I don't know it's concerning it's I understand it my knowledge of this of this subject is very limited but pdology or whatever the vice object matter is it's very limited I guess it's so fatal that you just get it and die so you know it doesn't spread the way people can get on you know spread something like covid right it's but that's also kind of worrisome

55:27that I was not reassured to read about how fatal this particular biological weapon is or whatever so yeah especially given that Putin is you know doing more trouble making in Europe more drones I mean more attacks it's concerning it's concerning luckily we have the best people in charge I'm sure very vigilant in monitoring all this you know and all of our actual Russia experts and all of our actual epidemiology experts have been running out of government so that kind of adds to my concern one other note of bad news over the weekend well we're doing that is down in Brazil looks like a full political comeback in revenge for the Bolsonaro family still in this grand clen green walled who's living down there but one of his sons flavio who's currently a senator is headed to a runoff for president he finished first place in the first round against lula socialist current president of Brazil so flavio and lula had to a runoff meanwhile a jayer balsonara's wife michelle was elected

56:29to the senate one of his other sons carlos was elected to the senate another son ran on was elected to congress and then his other son Eduardo who's kind of like a mega podcaster now he's in the U.S. because he's facing imprisonment a few returns and you know we're obviously the Trump regime is is protecting him here he's giving safe haven to a right-wing criminal here in this country and jayer himself is at prison at home is an home imprisonment but my son his son wins that will end i think it's worth mentioning obviously there's some differences between briselle and us but the parallels between the balsonara family come back and you know the worst case scenario laid out by a jvl about Trump family reemergence i don't know while we're catastrophizing about the uh russian deadly plague one of my big things that i'm concerned about is a victory for us in 2029 followed by a massive recession uh followed by the reemergence of the family and you're seeing

57:34a little bit of that in briselle i'm getting a little bit of 2024 flashback vibes right obviously chump street or come back after 2020 and 2021 and also isn't lula like 80 years old it is like running against by and he's the incumbent so maybe maybe you could have stepped aside sort of like president Biden there i don't know enough about presenting politics to know if there would have been a good successor if it's somewhat maybe they didn't want to vote for it out that if i didn't hurt didn't hurt it yeah i'm they had a big they had a big advantage in that respect too briselle's 80-year-old lula hits the treadmill to ease voter concerns about his age yeah what does that not give one why does that not give one great confidence in that in that campaign you know it's like fewer podiums in interviews more lunges and squats this is from a salpalo ap article oh boy it's been quite a show yeah do you have anything positive that just let's fill i don't have anything else on my notes here for the weekend no the way i loved i'd never been to lexington or to keenland and and it was lovely and it is tough to reemerge to kind of this run down i guess actually

58:43blue in lexington isn't that the family really i don't you agree that's a famous lexington thing that wasn't it it is yeah it's the bluegrass airport yeah i i'm not sure i'm not a scientist so i don't know anything about the irksok flag or about why the grass isn't blue but it was still still it's still beautiful and you know good spirits good bourbon and i'm going to need the bourbon i think it turns out depending on what else is happening in the news all right i'm off to new hamster after this we'll see everybody at dartmouth on twosday night and tomorrow luke guys we got somebody i really like coming back to the show so i'm looking forward to that so see y'all tomorrow bill appreciate you thanks i appreciate it catch you next week

59:43i was here in the world the world that you keep you can see it you're running like i'm gonna be on the street if i'm i'll try I can be the one and the two.

1:00:44And the one and the one and the one and the one and the one. I've suffered a lot. The Bullwork Daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, associate producer Anzali Skipper, and with video editing by Dante DeCicco and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brow.