‘Ask Me Anything,’ and Why Ravi’s Kyiv Visit Left Him So Worried

0:00Who says Halloween only lasts one day? With Wayfair, one night of Halloween becomes a whole season at home. From larger than life yard decor and moody lighting to festive accents for every room in the house. Wayfair has what you need to make Halloween feel like magic all in one place. Because the best Halloween memories aren't made in just one night. They're made all season long. Shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. That's w-a-y-f-a-i-r.com. Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, foreign policies editor-in-chief. This is F.P. Live. It is time for our regular AMA episode. We've gotten tons of questions from all around the world, and I'm excited to take a stab at them. One of the reasons we picked this particular week for this AMA is because I just got back from a trip to Kiev. I wrote about it for F.P. We're going to leave a link in the show notes, but I know some of you want to talk about it as well.

1:03So there's that. But there's also the brick summit from last weekend, the Iran conflict, energy prices, Xi Jinping's forthcoming US visit, the UN General Assembly, and so much else to chew on. So let's just dive straight in. As we always do, I handed the mic over to our executive producer, Donna Shurn. We've gotten so many great questions, but as you mentioned, I think we have to start with that Ukraine trip. I know there's so much interest in what you saw there. You wrote a little bit about that train attack on the way out. Can you tell us about that incident? Yeah, sure. So I was there for a national security conference that has held annually. And what usually happens with this conference is that there's a diplomatic train that goes back from Kiev to the border with Poland. I was on that train along with several other European dignitaries. There were four sitting national security advisors, at least one sitting foreign ministers,

2:08several other powerful ministers from European countries. There were US congressmen. And what happens with this train is that it stops right before the border where there is a passport check, basically. And our train, it turns out, was just ahead of another train that ended up being hit by a Russian drone. And this was very surprising to us because we did not expect Russia to send a drone at basically such a high level gathering. I mean, we thought that we would have strength in numbers that the profile of some of these attendees would mean that the Kremlin wouldn't dare. But then also, there's the fact that Russia has not been attacking trains that far west of Kiev. So it was a surprise all around. I should say the train that was hit had been evacuated. No one was heard or injured. But we left Ukraine really feeling like Putin wanted to send Europe a message.

3:12And the message was, stay out. Don't come back. Don't interfere. That's pretty scary. But I'm glad everyone was safe. I'm glad you were safe. And also, you wrote in thinking about that attack that it got you worried about the future of drone conflict in Ukraine. Can you tell us what got you thinking about that? Conventional wisdom has been that drones and the use of drones in this war were Ukrainian advantage. Like a boon for Kiev. Yeah, they really were. And I should point out the drone that did come our way was an armed drone. But it was one of the older Iranian shahead drones that Russia's been using for quite a few years. And these drones, they traveled pretty fast, but they're not that fast. In other words, Ukraine has the ability to shoot some of these down. And the further they go, partly because of their speed, you usually have enough time to evacuate if you need to, as I said, to shoot down.

4:21And also just to be clear, we weren't complacent in our trains. But I also didn't feel a great sense of fear because we were in very good hands. And the organizers have an amazing track record of keeping us safe. All of that said, I did leave Ukraine feeling very worried about Ukraine this winter. And part of the reason is that for the last couple of years, I think one of the big narratives of this war has been that Ukraine has been really smart about how it's innovated with drones, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side. So being able to shoot down Russian incoming, but then to also be able to attack deep into Russia with what is known as the FPV, the first person viewed drones. Some of these could be connected to fiber optics. Some of these could be mobile. But basically, Ukraine was at the cutting edge of this kind of innovation so much so that when the Iran war started, a lot of US

5:24Gulf allies were asking for help from Ukraine in that how do you stop these Iranian-Shahed drones and how do you fight back? The big thing that seems to be changing now in the last few months is that the latest iteration that Russia is using of these Iranian-Shahed 136 drones, and this one's called the Gharan 5, it is essentially a version of a cruise missile. I mean, this can go at nearly 400 miles per hour. It has a range of about 600 miles. It carries a 200 pound payload. That's explosive capacity. It costs about $100,000. More than souped up drones. These are cruise missiles. And as we've been discussing on this show and other places, Ukraine has completely run out of missile interceptors. And it doesn't quite have the clear technology to be able to shoot down a drone that is coming in at that speed.

6:27That's something that is nearly 400 miles per hour, faster than a bullet train, just to put that in perspective. And tech executives in Ukraine that I spoke to said that it'll take several months for Ukraine to really figure out how to get ahead of this latest innovation from Russia, the jet-powered drone, and figure out how to shoot it down. So I left quite worried because we're coming up against the cold months now, and Russia's been developing about maybe 3,000 of these jet-powered drones a week. That means that, you know, the winter season, it'll probably have tens of thousands of these drones ready to go. And it could shoot them at all forms of civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure. And what this is going to end up meaning is that Ukraine could lose energy supplies, power supplies. It could get very cold, very dark for the Ukrainian people.

7:31And they don't quite have great defenses here. They continue to keep asking Europe and other countries for patriot missiles, other forms of defense. But again, I mean, the way this war is working, you simply can't have enough. And we know that in another arena, Iran, America's kind of running out of patriot missiles and thought interceptors. So, you know, usually we've seen that defense has kept up with offense, but now it seems like in the latest sea saw in this war, it looks like offense has the upper hand, and that really makes me worry for Ukraine. Yeah, I mean, it sounds very clearly like the wartime tactics are evolving and changing as we speak, which brings me to a question from Gianluca Fleggo. He has read several essays and F.P. and then other magazines and says that in doing so, it's a little hard for him to get a clear sense of who's actually in the ascendancy. Is it Ukraine or is it Russia? What's your take on that, Robbie?

8:35It's a great question. I think this war has swung. Momentum has swung month to month, season to season. One could have made the case a few months ago that Ukraine was in the ascendancy. It was really beginning to attack Russian energy installations. They had made Putin fearful to the extent that he low-keyed his victory day parade, which he cares about a lot. The war was beginning to come home to Russian people, and Russia, of course, was losing about 30,000 people a month. So there were many reasons to think that Ukraine was somewhat in the ascendancy. Given everything I just said about the new jet-powered drones, I have reason to believe that we may be watching now a swing in momentum towards Russia, in which Russia will be able to attack Ukraine much more efficiently than it was before, and Ukraine will have fewer defenses than it did

9:37before. All of this begs the question, Donna, where is this leading? To me, it's still unclear that the diplomatic track is working out. We saw Trump's confidence, Stephen Whitkov and Jared Kushner go to Moscow, and then they came to Kiev as well. Really, from everything we learned of what they said, they discussed with Putin. It did not inspire much confidence. Kushner spoke at the conference. I was at remotely, and there were moments where the audience was laughing at him when he said, for example, that Putin cared a lot about a peace process. So there's a lot of mistrust about this particular US-Russia track of diplomacy. And I think if you look at this from Putin's perspective, it doesn't seem like he actually intends to end this war. If you examine how he controls pretty much every aspect, every mechanism of power in Russia, he has, in fact, every incentive to just

10:44keep going to the bitter end. And again, he doesn't care about broad metrics like GDP growth or the welfare of his own people. I think he really is haunted by history, by Catherine the Great, Peter the Great, and Ivan the Terrible. And he compares himself to them, and this is a legacy play for him. So he is going to try to win at all costs, and as those costs get higher, he may not back off, and there's every chance that this war could just continue for a long time to come. And of course, it hurts Ukraine very badly. The question, as always, has been, if Europe and the United States know this, and if they're investing in Ukraine and they're trying to help it win, why not go all the way? And that really is the big debate to have on this. Obviously, the Putin angle you just shared is not one that you saw in Kiev, but what did you know this in Kiev? That would be difficult to understand from the news coverage that we get to read here in the States or outside of Ukraine. This is a question I should mention from Eris, who wants to know

11:52a little bit more about the daily life, the mood, the resilience, or the exhaustion. How are people talking about the war as you move through Kiev? It's very humbling to even try to answer this question, Donna. I was in a security bubble. I was there for a very short period of time. And what I saw was a tiny, tiny slice of something that may not even be reality. So all of that said, from speaking with as many Ukrainians and regular people as I could possibly speak with, I got a sense that they are as resilient and unbreakable in their spirit as they have been from day one. I mean, they have surprised the world on the upside with their courage, with their bravery, with their innovation, in holding off a country that is far, far bigger in every single way, every major metric, population, economy, size, military might. And they've survived. They've

12:55taken the fight to Russia. But it's clear that the stresses are continuing to show in very real ways. And I think one key change is that the heart of Kiev had been relatively unaffected by the war, in sharp contrast with much of the eastern part of the country. It looks now like that is beginning to change. Just a few days before we got there, Russia had attacked Ukrainian security office headquarters in the heart of the city. And that was a sign that they could get there. They could hit anyone they wanted to when they needed to. There were several other strikes on Kiev, installations in Kiev, on steel plants, for example. And I think regular people in the city are beginning to get hit in their residential towers. There's a sense that this is coming home, even in the heart of the capital. And as Russia begins to target passenger trains, for example, even west of Kiev,

13:59as it goes even further into Lithuanian airspace, most recently, potentially even Polish airspace, I think the fear is across Ukraine that this is ramping up, that there's no end in sight, begin to hit home a little bit more. So it's a mixed picture. I think the people are so incredibly resilient. They also realize that in many ways they are the tip of the spear for the rest of Europe, but they are tiring. And that's very hard to see. And we'll be back in a minute with more of Foreign Policy Live. Remember, you can catch these conversations live and on video on foreignpolicy.com. Subscribers get to send us questions in advance in addition to a range of other benefits, including our magazine. Sign up. DC to New York City a little over two years ago. And as you can imagine, my closet space shrank

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17:03Here's a question from Pierre Leblanc. It's focused on energy. At the start of the conflict, there was a real sense, and we talked about it on the show, that oil prices could go up as high as $200 a barrel. But that never happened. And so Pierre asked, why is that? And what do you think will happen with energy for the rest of the year? Yeah, this is a great question. You know, we knew before the war that Iran would potentially shut down the state of Armoos through which about a fifth of crude goes through every single day. And that represents around about 20 million barrels a day if you assume that the global market is about 100 million. This is just broad strokes map. And without that 20 million barrels a day, the price of oil would just skyrocket well past the 6070 barrel mark to 150 200. And that didn't happen. It went up to about 100 110, but it didn't go higher than that. And part of the reason

18:07Donna is that a few things happened simultaneously. Saudi Arabia began to move about half of its supplies through an east west pipeline, which came out at the other end in the Red Sea. The UAE also had a pipeline. It could shape half of its supplies out. The US drew on its strategic petroleum reserve. China also drew on its reserves. And it also tamped down on demand. So all of that strangely, all these different moves that were not in concert, but were happening separately, they ended up meaning that, you know, about 70 80% of the oil that needed to get out found its way out. And meanwhile, the other 20 to 30% of the shortfall was met by a drop in demand as prices rose. And as China kind of became a little bit of a swing consumer on that front. We're now seeing that some of those factors I mentioned are beginning to change. And that's why all prices have ticked up. They're kind of hovering near about 110 dollars a barrel right now.

19:11And they may yet go higher. And so what's happened in the last week or so is that the Houthis in Yemen bombed the East West pipeline. I mentioned the Saudi one. That's meant that Saudi Arabia can no longer reroute a lot of the crude oil that it was rerouting. And then meanwhile, this is the big black box. But China, it seems like has started by encrood once more to add to its strategic reserves. And this probably means that in China's calculations, it had used up some of its reserves. And it wants to dip back into the market, even though prices are high. So it's probably doing this in the knowledge that it going back in means that this hurts the global economy to some degree. And maybe it's okay with that. Interesting. You've been arguing for a long time that the US has overreached. But Sean Redder wanted to know what your take is on nothing stand right now. I'm curious if that overreaching

20:16assessment has changed it all over time. It's evolving. I did argue at the start of this war that the United States overreached. And I stand by that. I think the war wasn't necessary in the way that Trump went about it. And that the United States had all these maximalist goals without a clear plan for how to get out of it. And I think everything that's happened since has has borne out that thesis. But while that may be true, I think it's also probably true that Iran has also overreached to a degree. It is unclear how it gets out of this war. It is unclear the longer this goes, whether it truly gets more out of this delay to peace than the United States does. You know, one key statistic I've been looking at is how the blockades have been affecting each side. And so our viewers know this, but there's an Iranian blockade and there's an American blockade

21:17of the state of our moves. And it turns out that the Iranian blockade is actually leakier than the American one. So Iran has not been able to ship any of its oil since about July. None of its tankers are able to get out. But the Gulf states have increasingly been able to get some of their oil out, maybe 30 to 40 percent of them, according to tankartrackers.com, which tracks these things. So all of that means that the global economy is not hurting as much as the Iranians might want in terms of exerting pressure on America. But meanwhile, Iran is actually suffering the most in that it's not being able to make money off of this current moment with elevated oil prices. And then most of all, its people continue to suffer not only from elevated energy prices, but of course the fact that there are all of these heavy sanctions on Iran. They're not able to import the goods they need and their people just suffer more broadly. So all of that tells me that there

22:22is a serious sort of pain point for the Iranian people. And while the regime itself may not care and they may make sure that the people feel all that pain and that they are relatively insulated at some level those costs add up. It makes the regime even more unpopular than it clearly is. And then you have to ask the question, what are they actually getting out of this? If you are not hurting the West as much as you want to do and you are hurting a lot. And so I'm beginning now to feel that much as though America overreached Iran may also be overreaching. And it would have been in their interest to try and find some way to end this. You may recall when there was the memorandum of understanding over the summer, I had actually argued incorrectly. It turns out that I thought the MOU would endure. And that's because I thought this was genuinely in the interests of both sides. And it didn't endure because Iran then launched attacks. It wanted to make sure that it got more out of this moment. I just don't think that bet has paid off for Iran.

23:26Big of you doing it when you're wrong, Ravi. But yeah, I mean it sounds to me like we've talked a lot about the pain thresholds that both countries both sides are facing and it sounds like that calculus. You're seeing that change a lot too. This brings me to a question from Stuart Kaplan who wants to ask how this will change US presence, US strategy in the Middle East at large. There's so many unknowns here because the United States hasn't publicly admitted how much damage it's faced to its bases in the region. I mean, according to some media sources in New York Times, Wall Street Journal and others, some 17 US bases have been damaged to varying degrees. There is one in Bahrain that has been so significantly damaged that the US could no longer use it as a major base. And so it's biggest tankers, warships needed to go a couple of thousand miles to the south to Diego Garcia, a joint base with the UK to use as their refueling base.

24:31I mean, all of that suggests to me that the damage to American interests in the region is quite extensive. And when the dust settles on this, I think, you know, the first thing the Pentagon needs to figure out is how to repair these bases, how much money to spend on it, how long all of that takes. But then after that, there's the broader question of posture given everything that's happened, given how this war actually ends up, how much of a presence you want to maintain in the region. And you know, one more thing that I've been thinking about in the last week is that as I digest and truly understand the extent to which Russia is developing and deploying jet-powered drones, you have to wonder if they got the initial tech from Iran and they share some of this new tech back with Iran. If Iran then ends up getting the ability to use these souped up drones which actually act like missiles, what that means for security calculations for the United States and

25:35the region, but also all of its allies, you know, if we're truly entering a world in which offense is much easier than defense, then it begs the question, how many places do you want to defend in one go? And I think American policymakers will be thinking hard about that question. And the other side of that question is also how much the allies in the Gulf are going to be welcoming of US as a security partner after after all of this continues to play out. Yeah, that's a great point. Something will definitely keep an eye on and keep covering here, but to turn the page a little bit here, several subscribers wanted to ask about China. I just want to name check them Ben Nafton, Guang, Wang, John Hooker. There were others as well, huge topic for our subscribers. But Xi Jinping just embarked on a world tour. He was in New Delhi for the Brick Summit. He is headed to DC soon to meet with Donald Trump. I'd love to know a little bit about your sense, I guess, of

26:38first his seeming rapprochement with India and then zooming out a little more how Beijing is thinking about its relationship with Washington. Yeah, that's a great question. And also before the Brick Summit in Delhi, she was also in Bishkek where they had the SCO meetings, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. So he's been on a bit of a diplomatic tear. The India-China question is very interesting. And the strange thing is that the big player here is actually the United States. And there are two points really to explore here. I think way back in 2020 when India and China had a skirmish on their border in Galwan, that one incident ended up meaning that India moved further away from China. It put all these sanctions on Chinese products. And then it also tried to move closer to the United States, really seeing the US as a hedge against China

27:43in the region. And so despite a lot of reticence in some circles in New Delhi about America's reliability, India seemed willing to be a little less non-lined than it had been in the past. And try instead of you closer to Washington. That was a trend line. It had been a trend line for decades, but it really accelerated because of China's hostility in 2020. The strange thing now is that we're seeing the opposite thing happen. I think for both India and China, the United States has been an unpredictable sort of partner country rival. So for China, of course, the two are very clear rivals. And China needs to look for other ways to find partners and allies. But I think the big change here is for India as well. India now sees the United States as unreliable given the tariffs that were slapped on India. And a host of other reasons, America's becoming more

28:45friendly with Pakistan, for example. So there's a real sense in India that if America can't be trusted, then maybe relations with China should be improved. And I think that's what we're seeing with Xi Jinping's visit to New Delhi for the Brick Summit. His first visit in many years. India and China are not going to be natural allies. They are not going to be best friends. But in part because of the actions of the United States, I think they are moving closer together a little bit. They are seeing some convergence of interests, but there's still a lot more that separates them, than unites them. I think that framework is also an interesting way through which to look at how China is seeing the United States ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to Washington. I think this relationship now is contradictory in many ways in that there's some stability at the top.

29:46There's been between Trump and Xi more meetings, more messages that they want to stabilize the relationship. And yet at the same time, we know that competition has intensified. The rivalry is becoming more heated in a range of domains, whether it's critical minerals, whether it's AI, whether it's primacy in the Pacific. So all of those things put together mean that I think we're just entering this era where these two countries will be bigger, more open rivals. And they'll look for different ways in which that rivalry plays out. And in China's case, just to come back to the summit tree, I think Xi Jinping sees all these various groups. The SEO, I mentioned bricks, there's ways in which to project power, ways in which to be seen as some sort of a spokesman for the global south, for the developing world, which it may not necessarily be. And these groups, of course, a lot more divides them than unites them. There's no sort of ideological underpinning

30:53for a group like the bricks, which includes Iran and India. But I think the fact that Xi Jinping is seeing these as a power projection tool, again, tells me that all of this is in some ways in opposition to the American-centered view of the world, or America's running of global order. And she sees this as a great moment to highlight the fact that Europe and other American allies are not so happy with Trump's White House. Let's talk a little more about Trump's White House. Stephen Moore wanted to ask just generally what you think Trump's foreign policy might look like in the coming months, and specifically if his party loses in the midterms, which are coming just around the corner. Some of this question might line up, some of your answer, I should say, might line up with your recent essay, which talked a lot about why and how Trump has peaked.

31:54Yeah, I mean, so just to recap the key point in that essay, I do think Trump has peaked in terms of his coercive powers globally. And that means he has less military power and might to be able to threaten other countries or start new wars. We all know that US munitions have been depleted, both offensive and defensive. And that means America's less able to project power. And then there are a variety of other reasons US tariffs have made other countries regions even look to strike bilateral trade deals, multilateral trade deals that bypass the United States. So there are all kinds of reasons I think that some of Trump's coercive powers are now declining. And that means that in many ways he has peaked on the global stage. He'll still be a disruptive influence, a powerful influence, but he won't have the powers he had before the

32:55Iran War. I think that that it's safe to say is the chief reason why I think he peaked and is in decline. But in terms of what might happen after the midterms, I mean, if we assume that in these midterms, the Democrats win the House and maybe come close to winning the Senate or win it, what is clear is that Congress, which had lost its voice completely on a range of issues, will maybe be able to find that voice when it comes to foreign policy. So being able to ask tough questions about the Iran War and its legitimacy, tough questions about the Venezuela operation and its legitimacy, gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, Trump's future potential plans for Cuba or even his current ones to try and kind of in a vice-roy like way, imperial way to use Venezuela's oil. I think Congress has mumbled about how all of these things don't quite line up with what they want.

33:56It has mumbled about things that it has seen at the Pentagon that it's unhappy with, the mass firings of top generals and commanders, for example, the anti-DI, anti-woke policies that have ended up firing some seriously good talent in the military. We'll see those voices emerge more strongly, but I think most of all, the global point is key here because a lot of countries and companies have been keen observers of the way power works in DC. You know, for the last 18 months or so, they have tried to flatter Trump. They have tried to get him the gifts that he wants. They have tried to use other things that he likes, whether it's cryptocurrency investments or critical minerals investments to get into his good books. And my suspicion is that as they smell, that Trumpism declining, as they smell any sign that Trump has less coercive power that his military might

35:01is diminishing even the slightest, then countries and companies will change how they act. And I think that is a really interesting trend line to try and look out for in the coming months. Now, there'll be really interesting to track and to follow here. But for now, that's about all we have time for Ravi. Thank you so much to all the viewers for these great questions. Thank you, Ravi, for taking them on in the spirit of open conversation. I can't wait for the next one. But back to you. And that was our AMA episode. A big thank you to our viewers and subscribers around the world who sent in terrific questions. Lots more coming up as we mentioned. Next week is the UN General Assembly. And I will be bringing you a whole slate of fascinating conversations from there with policymakers and world leaders. Thanks for tuning in to FP Live. Donna Shun is our executive producer. Justin Craig is our technical director. Dan Efron runs our podcast division. And I'm

36:08Ravi Agrawal. I'll see you next time. Who says Halloween only lasts one day? With Wayfair, one night of Halloween becomes a whole season at home. From larger than life yard decor and moody lighting to festive accents for every room in the house, Wayfair has what you need to make Halloween feel like magic all in one place. Because the best Halloween memories aren't made in just one night, they're made all season long. Shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. Wayfair every style every home.