A Numbers Game | October 13, 2026 | Hour 2

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1:00To ghost-hound houses because they have unfinished business or because you have unfinished races, there they are. It's further evidence that everything happens for races. The numbers told the story now is now. Swandles 80 to believe in analytics. This is the numbers game with Yolalixander on Vison. Our number two of the numbers game at Vison, these sports betting network Vison.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriSexam Channel 189, skill Alexander, Skelly Bidlett. Yeah. Megapod tomorrow, West Reynolds is our guest. Woo! West Reynolds, I was a Reynolds. Yes, annual guest on the show, looking forward to that. He's got to wrap up his college football pod with Tim Murray and then he's going to hop on over, talk NFL with us on the Megapod. I like it. A good timing to get West Reynolds because he can maybe give you some insight into this Indianapolis Goldstein that I have. Yes, very little feel for it might be playing in survivor. Talk me out of playing the Coltsons survivor. Scan the QR code for more if you want to check the Megapod and all the beating the book podcast offering,

2:05including guessing lines if you miss it in the in the live version as well. Still to come. Jeff Erickson from Roto Wire going to talk football at baseball with us. Mark Bortchard on the ALNNLCS. But first drew Densick from his spot in the LBC Long Beach, California. He joins us now courtesy the progressive guest line whale underscore cappers where you can find him on Twitter. He's the cohost of the deep dot podcast with Andy Molotor was happening true. Oh, not too much. How you guys doing? Doing very well. How was your week five in the national football? To get to see the NBA. A bit to start. Oh, God. What do we do? What about the how about the Celtics this preseason? Oh, mama, like this team looks like they could be a sleeping giant in the east. I gotta tell you, they might have hit some they might have hit some some serious home runs this off season. I'm liking the Celtics. All right. I'll lead into this before we get to that young scrappy Paul George before we get to football. Have any season long NBA stuff you wanted to share with us?

3:08Well, I like I actually do like the Celtics. That's not a joke. You're right. Season log NBA stuff. Other than the Celtics, I think you're betting against the win totals at the top of the board. This is the reverse of what you've had the last five years where there have been five to seven obvious tanking teams that are just giving away wins to the teams who are trying in the final third of the season this year with in some part due to the rules and some part just due to the fact that all of the tanking teams now have accumulated assets over the last couple of years and are going to presumably try for a full 82 game season. I think is going to just flatten the win totals in general. So I would pretty much just try to steer anyone clear of betting against the teams going under on the low numbers and going over on the high numbers because you could have pretty well printed pretty much printed on that strategy in I guess many, you know, like I said, like the last five years, I'm pretty sure you would have just come out ahead if you took over the top five under the bottom five.

4:08But to me, it feels like this is a very different paradigm this year. Kind of curious to see how the new rules affect some of the, you know, kind of major stars in terms of offensive efficiency. The new main new rule being the a the off on push off and how closely that's called the players that that's going to most significantly affect I think are SGA and Luca Donchich. So we'll be watching pretty carefully to see what happens there and they're really going. What's your health? I don't think what's your hunch that it's called called very close or is that just like an NFL preseason my hunch is that the first two weeks of the season are going to be pretty unwatchable basketball. Because there's going to be an aggressive attempt to call it. And I think there's going to be an aggressive attempt by defenders to not flop per se, but accentuate when they feel that type of off arm movement to kind of secure the call. So, you know, if you if you like elegant flowing no no stoppage basketball, I would say tune in November.

5:14Because I think the first couple weeks are going to be rough hang. But, you know, kind of in that vein, who does this help helps when B MVP case. He's still out there in like the two to one range, which I think is wrong. This is basically like what is his fair for making 65 games. And I think what he proved last year in this postseason run is that he is like perfectly reasonably durable enough to expect he's going to get the 65 game criteria. So, um, Yokech is, you know, it's kind of the wild card here. I'm against the nuggets pretty aggressively right now at price. I think they've done a very poor job of constructing a roster that really kind of supports his strengths. And then yeah, FSGA and Doncher, Char and anyway impacted efficiency wise by the new rules. Then, you know, that all of those guys mentioned are clearly tier two behind when B. I noticed you skipped over Yannis. People are gushing over Yannis here in the preseason with the EU.

6:17I mean, okay. No bad news. Not in no, no, I don't, I don't think, I don't think realistically the heat are contenders for a top three seed in the east, which is what they would they would have to be like a one or two seed. I think in the east for him to get the serious consideration. I think also I'm just maybe just too many times recently burned by when Yannis has been healthy early in early going of these seasons that it's just like. Bet everything positive on Yannis and Yannis is team because like if he's going to play like this, then no one in the east is stopping him, but. You know, his, his durability is now a huge, huge question mark based on the, you know, the signal we've gotten the last four years and. Expect him to give you 60, I think he is a lower likelihood to make the 65 game threshold then all of the rest of the stars by a significant amount. Okay, give me the drew Dinsik top five east and west.

7:17Let me look top five in the east for me. I have nix number one right now as far as neutral power rating Celtics number two I have pistons number three I have raptors number four. And I have the calves number five I have the Pacers six of the heat seven and I have the sixers wow sixers eight yeah that's the big that's the big difference between your numbers and the eastern conference. Market to win the conference six years would be the yeah only behind the nix. Yeah, I hate this team composition. I'm trying to take my personal feelings out of this. Please do. I really am mad because I'm mad at them I wanted to see them kind of lean into a Tyree Tyree's maxi build. And instead they're kind of taking usage away from him the way that they're.

8:42And I'm like, I'm not going to be a fan of the defense and it's like and then some nights it's going to be like well. All of that's the resting is your is your show tonight buddy like go get them you know and I feel like what a young player when you do that to him you can absolutely disrupt some of their you know kind of. Getting into the flow maybe Nick nurses a good enough coach that that just doesn't happen and everything goes fine but. Obviously and you know it could very well come down to we get to April and they play their way into the playoffs and Joel and beat is healthy and everybody's ready to go and I could have a very different opinion at that time but. Right now I feel like they're kind of in a me asthma of the middle class of the NBA where they could find themselves 10th and I wouldn't be shocked wow did you have the same experience I did Kelly when he was going through that when you got to five and six and then seven. So I was actually said to myself did I miss the sixers yeah a little bit. I get it there's a lot of there's been a lot of discussion in the offseason juves obviously just mentioned a lot of it.

9:46I mean how is the usage rates there's too much high usage guys on this team it's going to be a bit of a mess fitting together i'm kind of still in the camp though of like there's too many good players on this team I think regular season. I'm going to challenge that. The back to the back to back but what do you have yeah I can't project with high confidence more than 40 games from indeed I don't think I ever will from this point till the end of this career so you 40 games out of the beat great just who's the backup center minutes on this team. That's true yeah that's have you looked at like it is is Lebron really going to play the four on this team like can he play the four he's going to have what how much how much more how much. How much did like how much did you know yeah his defense regress so aggressively last year how much does he have left I have huge questions and i'm i'm willing to die on the hill that jaylen brown was a product of the Celtic system much more than he was a product of you can go anywhere and be just as. A productive and I think his efficiency stats will ultimately win out in this conversation about how good of an NBA player he is you guys should fight.

10:52I hate I hate your dyns. I think it's the one thing we're going to agree offer sure with this team like we talked about 51 and a half wins like we talked about the last week it sucks to see that some of these guys getting away of the development of the denny obvious of the maxi of the VJ and Portland thing makes me as angry as the as the sixers. Of course, the thing does with sixers by the way before you go to the west before you go to the west i don't want to leave it hanging me asma highly unpleasant foul smelling vapor or fog or dark oppressive atmosphere surrounding a place or situation well done. Yeah well done yeah and then in parentheses the southeast the southeast. What's your west rankings. West for me is spurs number one thunder number two and there is a there is a a an index card splitting my fair rating for those teams right now so basically no gap huge gap after them i have timble of three I have the rockets for I have the nuggets five I have the warrior six and then.

12:00The next cluster of teams is difficult to separate but of the next cluster I would take the upside of the jazz is the seventh best team in the west is kind of a fun. Things could come together and they could look they could look a lot better than people realize. Yeah biggest difference maybe there between the market and what you're saying is the rockets who are getting. Steven Adams and lead back right now that's huge I don't know how much Steven Adams matters at this point but for the lead it's going to matter a ton I think the rockets are a top four team in the west I can see them third honestly. Yeah and that's addition by subtraction because read shepherd then gets fewer minutes at the same time. Don't tell my mom a son of that okay. He was tired of fighting with him over read shepherd yeah Kelly's just picking fights picking fights man alright we will get to the NFL which week six. His bets maybe a little thought on the last night football game that you learn anything from either team. What did he learn if so it's a numbers game at visa these sports betting network.

13:10Some of the most important design choices are the ones that go unnoticed the details that together make an experience feel intuitive comfortable and above all exhilarating. At acura that means looking closely at how every detail can make your experience behind the wheel more rewarding every lesson learned and every idea refined becomes part of what comes next and it lives inside every MDX ADX and integral that's precision crafted performance that's acura. Hey what's up guys it's Hayley Bailey okay I need to tell you about something I just got you to premium it's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi. Because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst I get out free I get back room play and there's like a ton more in there you should try it if you like YouTube you'll love YouTube premium. Try it now for two months free at youtube.com slash premium try eligibility varies terms apply cancel anytime that's a mouthful. The numbers game on decent these fours betting network back on the numbers game live from circuit you know Kelly Drew Dinsick hanging out with us real quick before we get back to Drew.

14:22Skittles 83 hey Gil Miss guessing lines yesterday so maybe you said this but as I was watching the Niners Hawks game Sunday couldn't stop thinking Eddie Murphy no take the paper both teams tried to let the others deal one will catch the podcast today thank you Skittles 83. It's the old famous Eddie Murphy sketch for Saturday live somebody years ago no go ahead take the paper. Somebody here Chris he Kelly sounds way more like that guy from it's always sunny in Philadelphia I get that I get from voice I get Charlie. Yeah a lot yeah Charlie day yeah chance copper but I think Kelly would want Josh Allen to play him in his bio that was a great chance. And then Rick Oliya man I add my two cents about the actors to play the numbers game crew in the future of the movie Gil Robert Downer Robert Downey Jr. Wow Kelly breath pit there we go there we go now we're getting more accurate. Physic the guy that plays Jamie Lannister who's that David throw it's oh crack you the actor is a crack Hugh Jackman and wish

15:24never denzel Washington your welcome he says those seem fairly accurate. Drew Dinsick kind enough to join us again for a second segment here all the picks because Drew's about to vomit out a whole bunch remember for subscribers Vs and dot com six Vs and pro intro offer is still available side of hers little is 99 not only those bets but exclusive betting split that power prop tools and matchup analysis access to all betting guides Vs and dot com slash subscribe before we move on from the NBA so some of the season win totals you have played are. I get we got to do some some qualifying here sadly i did all my work on this last week and got filled on 12 and the numbers are moving like aggressively so my three favorite overs have all gotten totally cooked here three favorite overs were the raptors over 45 and a half that's out to 143 I liked the jazz over 37 and a half that's out to 131

16:26and this one is absolutely stunning I played the have rockets over 47 and a half flat 110 it's out to minus 160 so that that's I'm sup I I'm a little. I'm going to look caught by surprise that there's that many Houston that much Houston support out there i'm going to have to do some soul searching on whether I should come back on that one and see if there's value on the other side because I feel like too big of a move couple my unders got steamed pretty aggressively too I had under on the horn it's 39 and a half that's out to 167 which feels like an over reaction nuggets under 45 and a half that's out to 138 so the those are the five that I played that i'm like pretty stunned at how much they moved the stuff that I played that is still very very widely available and actually is gone against me the Celtics over 51 and a half is plus 112 you can bet that right now for better than I played it sixers under 50 and a half is minus 112 that's about basically right about what I played it under 61 and a half plus 117 available that is better number than what I played it and then

17:34there was one oh yeah magic under 43 and a half plus 112 is available that's a better number than I bet but not all that different from what we were talking about in terms of who I'm higher low on relative to market I'm higher than market on the raptors the jazz the the rockets the Celtics I'm lower than the market on the sixers the thunder the hornets the magic okay before we get to you or the nuggets before we get your NFL week six picks and Mikey P on Twitter says based on how that first segment went with Drew I think he'd rather talk horse racing darts or wine or anything else other than week five or the other film but I do want to see the list of entries for the breeders cup classic cars wait wait wait wait wait we got 12 runners in the breeders cup classic I'm this is going to be one of the all timers you're not ready to handicap it for us yet are you no I actually don't have anything on that I mean holy week it's always like you're getting I know I keep getting calm guard by the okay so one question about week five I know I said it about the Rams bills last night let me just leave it open ended

18:37what team I Rams obviously dude so did I what what team or teams either to the good or bad did you have the biggest adjustment on based on their week five performance oh that's such a tough question I thought you were basically say which teams have just absolutely stuffed you in a hole this season oh okay I was gonna say the Rams because uh believe it or not I I had positive closing CLV on the Giants week two against the Rams dark gets hurt they'd ever even sniff that one through you answer you answer Rams have any questions you want to answer forget what I'm asking just you just go back to back to I'm just like like stunned like this four week performance of me digging and the Rams sagging is incredible yeah yeah against them week two they they shine uh a back-to-me week three they below a 16-point can't possibly lose this game but the Broncos in week three um faded them week four uh the Eagles absolutely collapse in the second half uh and then back them week five and uh Sean McVase special teams

19:43ghosts of seasons past uh apparently still very much in the building um so uh yeah I the Rams uh the Rams have buried me this year single-handedly a couple of those games were the highest confidence play the plays I had all actually all three the last three weeks I had biggest stakes on the Rams against and and the market was with me and two of them too so I'm I'm I really I don't know where to turn at this point betting the Rams actually you just need to stop I suppose um but the team that I adjusted the most uh after the performance we saw um I and actually that's a tough one to call too because mostly my adjustments are mostly based on injuries uh so like for you for usual um if you if you want to me to try to take away like the injury aspect of it uh who got the like the like the um kind of the most impressed by or like the teams that are kind of trending up um it's uh I mean the the the Bengals offense is finally starting to kind of come into the shape

20:50that you expected even with injuries to the um you know to the wide receiver group uh burrow is starting to get a little bit hot uh that's exciting um I'm back towards like where I was pre-season prior expectation for Drake May so my Patriots numbers closer to where I was to start the season for that offense um so they're kind of out of the hole that they had dug themselves without bad things were going for them early on um um um up uh I would say that uh um I've finally kind of caught up to the market on what fair should be for the Niners even though I've always had Brock Pertius kind of Brock Pertius shanhand QBOC uh price has always been a top three for me um I've kind of begrudgingly starting to give that defense the respect that they deserve based on the performance we're seeing from them um and uh yeah I think just in general my my number adjustments were pretty soft um what about with injuries I guess is the big one what about with injury with Eagles I'm

21:52expecting Lamar I'm expecting Lamar back so my Baltimore number this week compared to last week is much better um Eagles are getting a bump for me with Devante Smith back for that skill position the group they had out there I had rated it as a two out of ten uh in London and I'm going to be closer to a six this week so that matters a lot for uh for the fair for the Eagles offense um offensive line still is a low number for me but uh but relatively compared to where they are typically rare error um I'm still I think the Eagles are a plus team um I like the you know kind of a segue there I like to lay the Eagles minus uh one this week I think um this is a a little bit of like people the buy people have kind of forgotten that the Panthers are coming into this game without too healthy cornerbacks um they're without you know without their starting cornerbacks uh I think that Smith back against that unit is kind of unlocks a lot of the field for the Eagles offense and they should snap out of it a bit uh so I laid one with Philadelphia and

22:56that's actually probably my favorite side of the week uh and you know in general I think I'm higher than the market on the Panthers but um uh but not high enough to say that they should be power rated better than the Eagles which is what a minus one would suggest what else did you land on week six besides the Eagles week six I got uh douse Cowboys Moneyline back to the well there one of the reasons I week five was so forgettable is the Cowboys eliminated me from survivor so the seasons over um sorry man the uh Cowboys Moneyline plus 100 I think is a fair play against the Packers I think the Cowboys have a relatively narrow range of scoring outputs here they get to 31 pretty commonly whereas I think there's a wider range of possibilities for this Packer Squad which uh kind of depends on you know how well their offensive line plays I think the Cowboys D-Lime could have a huge step down competition going from playing the bucks to playing the Packers and could be pretty disruptive in this one and hopefully that happens because uh I would like to

24:01avoid uh um Christian Watson embarrassing the secondary which could very well be the case but uh Cowboys for me uh Jets plus seven and a half even though I upgraded the Patriots I think seven and a half would suggest that the Patriots fair is like plus three I mean the Jets are squarely by market a minus three they've barely budged all season I think everybody kind of knows exactly who they are um to be a seven and a half point favorite at home suggests that the Patriots are getting overrated by the market to me um so I took the seven and a half and I'm I'm a little bit uh uh that that's one that almost feels like uh what do I what am I missing here I think the Jets are going to get some healthy players back on offense I think their past rush is going to be disruptive against a unit that's missing Will Campbell um and uh Remindry Stevenson now the only option out of Backfield that's a minus for the Patriots. Do you think of what I'm thinking more and more towards the Coltson Survivor sorry Drew what survivor they never heard of it. Drew Dinsick ladies and gentlemen thank you Drew appreciate it. Bucking ears man.

25:11A number is game on decent these sports betting network. All right listen to this Kelly one on a hands your football Sundays. These since got you covered with our new quad box of scores and in game odds check this out okay tune in keep with every game score spread money line total updated up to the minute is the action unfolds use us as a second screen by pulling up the V. Sin watch app on your phone or tablet even better you can add it to your YouTube TV quad box to keep up with the actual games and live odds all in one place three games on your screen plus V. Sin keeping you on top of every number that's how you watch Sunday like a sharp plus break an injury news right on the ticker no more flipping between apps are refreshing your sports book it's all right there next to the games you're already watching find V. Sin on YouTube TV and add us to your quad box this Sunday or download the V. Sin watch app V. Sin the sports betting network how cool is that love that love that I believe this is the brainchild of one John Brown who has been doing amazing work for this network since day one Jay big but I remember that old show we used

26:15to do called prime time action and you know you did a lot of live betting track and do recall and you know John Brown Rob Marino trying to even think who else I say a wrinkle help design so much of that and this is just keeps developing year after year and this is that's an awesome tool to have on Sundays so great looks good too we get tweets be to the book square bob 2022 there was a holding call early last night they clearly had no impact on the place result do some refs call that and some refs don't and that's the reason some refs crews are known for a lot of flags and some aren't either way I'm sick of it I'm sure there's someone that that goes on he said hey Kelly at the end just that's high guy that's great I mean that's very much an NBA third right it's the it's the I'm driving to the basket like okay he got fouled let me see if he makes it or not because I'm going to blow the whistle if he misses it well square bob I this is exactly what I'm talking about which is I get it some flags you have to throw but clearly this year I don't know if it's by edict I don't know if there is by edict and they've got to have another counter edict to and say hey we got a

27:18we got to slow this down there's too many games where it's an unwatchable experience with flags you can't call the tiki tack ones and maybe that's just a kill I just I don't know perfectly what the answer is good and this is two weeks in a row of me watching almost every snap of the jaguars games just the jaguar specific that was brutal it's it is tough to watch to your point but 80 plus percent of them I'm like well yeah yeah it's penalty it's penalty uh delm on the gap radio kill what was your first radio job just curious mine 1986 wfm v blares town new jersey playing top 40 carts eight dollars an hour um I had a music video uh show tv job before I had a radio job five dollars an hour uh the CBS affiliate in DC working for the music video connection hell yeah love that first radio job uh real radio wky stc

28:20john landon john broke even i oh here are the actors playing us he said gill out exandor jason bateman kelly Seth rogan bill crack a burger joe dee as Todd wish to have Paul jimati good call out on wish to have to see a body oh that's great i was like used bateman for you we were just passionate last week mile marker four twenty fessikets played by joe peschi gill morgan freeman i'm more than freeman i'll take it kelly ray liota as Henry hill in goodfellas narration and all crack man gets played by the godfather let's get this on the big screen okay you know what i can see ray ray liota bit i could be another one of my uncles and then one day a penguin took a step nobody knows why will you will you be betten chiming in on how exciting quote unquote Josh Allen is let us not forget late in the first half alan gesticulating the key on Coleman go deep only to throw ball so short that i'm surprised we didn't get a josh allen does will levis me out of it but this is this is but this is also what's entertaining about josh allen skill there are brain dead interceptions i

29:21mean this was where who was trying to defend him yesterday with the jade daniel's thing i'm like no josh josh josh out and couldn't do something like that the support what makes a better tady to the turnover factor too it's not gonna work can't be the most entertaining thing in your life not in sports either oh real real quick before we get to power rakey's i just want to comment on the drew drew ginsic segments before us i had two favorite parts one was the very ending where off mic lamenting his survivor knock out on the couch goes fucking ears give me every time that was number two the most to me though the the overriding favorite part of those two segments was do you ever see the Saturday night live sketch the george washington sketches with Nate bar gotsy i felt like i was keen and Thompson saying and in a in this world won't every man be equal and then there's a pregnant pause and jr goes you asked about the temperature like you just have one one no part of the any end of the line yeah whatever you want it doesn't matter what my question i just answer whatever you want to ask your own question and answer yourself going i'll be back in four minutes

30:22you asked about the temperature ladies gentlemen it's time for power rakey's let's go yeah one kill i was those only one can empower up w tu e datens classic rock w tu e well done all right power rakey job on the tweeters i've still got like six more to go w tu e they're like big on Tuesdays yeah i don't know i kind of thought that same thing all right so i have a new entry at number 10 oh hello carolina panthers idle and they move up to 10 they were just on the outside looking in for me um vacated spot panthers get it Vikings remain number nine they beat new orlands brakos remain number eight they beat the chargers the jaguars remain number seven they beat the eagles the ravens remain number six they beat the falcons was snoop huntly ravens almost got it upgrade for me they i believe they you know what

31:25no comment till i see my arrows chiefs were idle they remain number five the only differences i have this i mean this is really not a movement kind of weak for me bills rams traded places because the bills beat the rams on the road bills go to three rams go to four bills up to three rams down to four from three and then the 49ers beat the seahawks 49ers go from two to one seahawks go from one to two that's it for me it's all i changed carolina being the only real news i really i can't i can't make the Vikings any higher dude i hear you the offenses is better i will give them i can't make them higher even at five and oh the brakos are the shakiest of my top 10 probably at number eight i had to get rid of them finally well yeah but they still managed to win uh listen i don't know how the we all went through how the jags had to win you know what they had to do to win that game against the eagles had nauseam yesterday i still think they're a top seven team in the NFL me too um the raven certainly don't go down if anything they went up chiefs didn't play and then i for three of the best teams in football to me are in the nfc west though i must admit rams get

32:28it together we still have the same thing this is where i'm not gonna let go of this until we really feel like something moves but i think this week even more so than when we said this last week there's a top seven yeah and i think you could really argue this order a lot of different ways um and and i think as we go on here week to week it's i'm less thrilled about what's at the top like there's no great team individually separating itself i think um agree i did bump up and kind of like drew said i've been a little bit lower on them because of the defense and because of the injuries i did my biggest mover this week was the 49ers 49ers i moved from seven just from that outside of that group right or or the back end of that group i moved them up to two bills back up to one so bills one for me 49ers go to i'm hanging rams at three but i'm still like they're two and three get it together but like they're still so damn good yeah like i'm a believer in this team long term and just go to pukes every play it's unstoppable he's incredible maybe the best winery see

33:31you for the game ravens four so they did slide down a spot with you but i'm uh for me but like i'm with you Lamar back like this team still really good jags down a spot remember all these teams dropping a spot though because i moved the 49ers all the way up jags five not really a ton of movement here right jags five chief six c hawk seven then the one team i found who's interesting doing this exercise you pull up EPA numbers and profile focus the Detroit lions are in the top three of both of their ratings so i'll show them a little respect they i mean the offense is definitely more in sink here the past couple weeks and moving the ball far more easily than they were the earlier in the year so i moved the lions up but this is really like i would like broncos i had to get out there was a couple of these teams that it's kind of sick of looking at bears i moved down to nine a loss for them last week i'm still holding out hope this team is pretty good once Caleb Williams gets back and then Vikings 10 hey i there there's still a lot a lot left to be desired with that

34:32Minnesota team i'm with you gill like but they're undefeated they're undefeated i guess they're still in my top 10 lions have beaten the saints jets and cardinals beat up on the teams you got to beat up on saints jets and cardinals combined record is doing this here let's see two and three two and three one and four one and four right yes two and three one and four so that is four and eleven mm-hmm all right so the guy they got to be i mean it's an easy schedule all year too right this is said in the off season so yeah keep exploiting i don't know if that makes you one of the best teams in the NFL but i thought it was interesting to see that and what we're going to talk to Aaron shots tomorrow notice he was not one of the services that are a stat services i brought up because Detroit is 15th and DVOA so right middle of the pack oh is the updated for this week already yeah yep um Aaron shots from ftn sports on the show tomorrow creator of dva o a yeah i think we're we're in line again top seven teams of the top seven teams we have a slightly different order

35:33but it is some combo of bills niner's rams ravens jags chiefs and see hawks i don't think a lot of people would disagree with that i don't think so either and then after that you know pick your poison i also i wouldn't take offense with any of those seven teams if you were like this is the number one team i believe in i'm trying to think if i would with any of them the bills defense sucks and it's a joke yeah jags too many penalties i can't make them one either coming back on a numbers game right here at feces some of the most important design choices are the ones that go unnoticed the details that together make it experience feel intuitive comfortable and above all exhilarating at acura that means looking closely at how every detail can make your experience behind the wheel more rewarding every lesson learned and every idea refined becomes part of what comes next and it lives inside every mdx adx and integra that's precision crafted performance that's acura if you like youtube you'll love youtube premium it's destroying athlete creator and youtube

36:35maxor youtube premium enhances how i use youtube with awesome features like offline downloads so i could download my favorite training videos before i hit the gym so no wi-fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day plus i get ad free videos background play and so much more youtube premium is like youtube got some extra gains try youtube premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium trial eligibility varies terms apply cancel anytime and a number is game on visa and fees for spending network do not forget about the sharp plays on math transparency with records updated daily a i betting analysis real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros scan that QR code for more at sharp plays dot com kill Alexander Kelly bydlin Kelly has been in the uh the break perusing dva numbers yeah what do you got just some just some fascinating offense defense splits to me because this this feels like a theme

37:40that's just growing year over year in the NFL teams that have great offenses and terrible defenses and then we have a few that are the opposite right the great defenses with terrible offenses the bills second in offensive dva away 27th in defense of my god okay second in 27 second in 27th i'm just gonna go with the big these are like the bigel uh separators here panthers ninth in offense 21st in defense was that the panthers lions 10th in offense 25th in defense yeah cowboys this is what this in the bills of the biggest cowboys fifth in offense 30 second in defense and your Arizona cardinals 13th in offense 28th in defense so bills and cowboys the bills and cowboys the bills and cowboys the biggest what's the biggest opposite uh that would be the minnesota minnesota Vikings yeah makes sense first and what 30th and first yeah 30th and first offense defense wow still 30th in Seattle Seattle 20 second on offense second in defense whoo that's bigger than

38:45I thought yeah they're having trouble a little matriculating the ball down the field a little more this year and the san francisco 49ers one and four one offense four defense yep pretend top five book yep yeah uh let's talk some baseball mark bortard base winner joins us now from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert you can follow them at basewinter dot com at base winter on twitter the man is smiling before he gets on air how you doing mark it how can I not be smiling there was a historic game and probably people were just watching Georgia alabama college football but historic game on saturday night where they're the most i mean how how how could you not love this the most strikeouts in a nine inning game not only in the postseason but in the history of major league baseball uh by the guardians and it it really was was cool uh they came down from the dead and I I mean I've I had a lot of bets on cleave on which made it even better but I think from just from a fan standpoint I mean how cool is that I bet you the share of the

39:49Georgia alabama game was better than one of the historic games in major league baseball history deal see the college football fans are their heads are exploding and and I will let me give the counter argument to this because I love baseball right but that game there were just you're talking about game five now between the uh was this game four game five now already forgotten game five game five between the guardians and the white socks there were just two postseason nine inning games that have run longer in the pitch clock era than that game do you love all I mean the first four games of that series I think it was 49 pitching appearances like do you love a series like that where there's just pitching changes left and right I mean even the most baseball purist has to sort of wins at that I love it I I'm a big fan of Tony LaRousa and where he used to pick he there used to be a guy they called him the magic man I think he was Majenski he was a left handed specialist and they'd bring him into phase one batter every every like in the seventh or the sixth and so I like the what

40:53major league baseball study if you bring a guy in he's got a phase three or I get to the end of the inning and so I keep that that keeps it in check no I thought that was beautiful especially if you're Gavin will you I love Gavin Williams I mean how can you not right I try to apologize for even dare you Gil I'm happy for the Williams family I would be interested Gil in seeing the um you know maybe George out of them okay maybe I can understand people watching that like that's that's a pretty marquee game but there's probably somebody uh but just San Diego State boy see no as boy see state and Fies no state there's a lot of money on that one yeah what what what what what if I if the if the Cleveland game beat that one yeah if you love pitching changes Saturday night was the day for you um okay uh can I just show you this graphic let's before we get to the uh to your picks here this is uh the Milwaukee brewers this was a graphic I want to want to do justice to the people who tweeted this out this is um let's see this was from earlier today caught this from Ben

41:54Verlander uh Ben Verlander put this out on on Twitter this is a graphic that basically is reflecting that the brewers are the ultimate outlier so he was diving in on the game pitching match up yesterday he found this is this is stat of the average degree of the barrel of the bat at contact point for each team now everything to the left because I know the graphic is small for viewers every need the left in blue there is the pull side contact point so everything to the right is opposite field contact points so let's say we're at the plate and we're a right-handed hitter let's just say right here right just the purposes of this graphic but this is all pull hitters to the left and all op-o to the right as you see 29 of the 30 teams are to the pull side there's just one to the opposite field that's the brewers now that speaks he's he says that speaks volumes to the team approach means the balls traveling deeper which has a ripple effect on everything else you're trying to do as a hitter allows you to recognize off speed for a split second longer spit on pitches down in a way keep pitches fair that you're normally pulling foul foul line to foul on approach the team with the best record at all baseball the brewers the only team doing

42:58something in this and they're not even particularly close to any other teams it's pretty eye-opening also he mentions you see the very top blue one that's way off outlier as a pull team shout out to the Minnesota twins all they do is pull the the base oh my gosh but there's the brewers on an island it's pretty amazing yeah I think that you know what's what's interesting about that organization is I I counted somebody tweeted out like they're they're analytics department today there was like 13 people in it so they're probably looking at that maybe that and then maybe this is where where the the oh the AI and all the depth of the analytics departments maybe they pick players who are really good at that no definitely you can there's there's different approaches there's there's guys who who think it's pole power and launch angle and that's kind of been the prevailing sentiment here recently with with driveline that sort of thing but you know there's there's different ways to do it I don't know I mean there's still not number one as far as base base runs created and you know you still got Dodgers and I think the Astro is believe it or not

44:02we're really high up there so it just depends on how you're evaluating teams and and you know the record is one way but that doesn't that takes a look at the defensive side too which which you know the brewers are pretty strong there how do you feel about the Dodgers chances of coming back in this series would you play at Dodgers adjusted series price yeah I was looking at that and what I did with Otoni's I took him out I don't think he's gonna play I think he's really hurt and the way Roberts was talking about it I actually put in De Paula and for Otoni anyway I priced at the five games they get you know you only got to win four out of five games now and I think the right price is Dodgers plus 203 and you're getting I think you can get 223 for the Dodgers so that would be the the play from a series standpoint that I would make okay you say again you would you would do the witch now you'd make the series I would play the Dodgers you would think if you get plus 223 I think it should be like plus 200 so you

45:03know a little bit of value not not a lot we're showing plus 235 yeah okay so that's good and that's that's with me putting De Paula in for for Otoni you know show he's hurt so I don't he's not doing any service by sput being in the lineup so I would I would be very surprised if he's if he plays tomorrow okay let's talk about the game today game two the rays lose to the Guardians Guardians take what someone's saying improbable one to nothing lead based on the fact that they were taxed the rays were not the rays had all the rest in the world Guardians get it done in game one what about today's game game two I love Cleveland I've got I think they should be the favorite here minus 127 I got Messick better than the starting pitcher for Tampa who's Peralta not much your state a little bit I got 12% better than average pitcher for that Messick and then 6% better for Peralta but the here's where you know my number is kind of differ from what the I see I've

46:04and I've I've got the the Guardians number one in baseball from a fielding standpoint they have the best fielding person in baseball as their catcher for framing runs and so that kind of pulls into the into the probability calculation I like their bullpen a little bit better I've got them ninth I've got the Tampa Bay rays 15th one of the things that's really interesting is gonna so I would play the Cleveland the other one that I like here and I played it last night and hit it was over 1.5 home runs and I priced at today I have it minus one's eight one 71 and send in the market I think it minus one 43 so if you can get that minus one 45 I think that's a good play over one and a half home runs combined both teams you know each each seem to hit one home run and you win your bet but one of the things that was pretty interesting to me when I was looking at the at the breakdown breaking it down from a probability standpoint is you have home runs per nine from the bullpen and the worst team on that is Washington 1.39 then the next team Kansas City 1.38 but the the

47:09worst team or the third from worst team your Tampa Bay Ray you know a kill of 1.35 so that goes into the equation I think Cleveland's a live play I think I like him in the series I like him the game and I like more than 1.5 home runs tonight wow I mean those are two very opposite viewpoints on the guardians from Joe she and earlier and from Mark Bortchard here loves how can you dude how can you not like Gavin Williams in game three oh I don't even know who you're gonna play I hear you I hear you and that's the only game he can probably start in like the first five of these based on usage in the previous series Mark thank you always inside you know my pleasure let's listen joy let's watch baseball let's go let's do it pitching changes baby baseball every game day you show up for your team now it's your time ask your prescriber about we govi some magla tied injection 2.4

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