#236 Bob Elliott: 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' as Negative Growth Surprise Ahead

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 236.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Elliott shares why the economy faces a likely growth disappointment in 2025. He explains how both Fed policy and the new administration's focus on restricting immigration, cutting deficits, and increasing tariffs look less positive than expected. Elliott points to extremely high growth expectations priced into both stocks and bonds, while noting professional investors are showing the lowest conviction levels in nearly a decade amid policy uncertainty.

Links:

X: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited

Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/

0:00 Introduction and welcome back

1:02 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" market outlook

2:50 Analysis of Fed policy and fiscal expectations

4:39 Discussion of inflation and tariff impacts

6:19 Growth expectations vs reality

7:36 Key risks for 2025

9:27 Bond yields and stock market valuations

14:12 Consumer sentiment and partisan impacts

16:38 Tech bubble comparisons and market setup

17:19 MAG-7 vs broader market earnings expectations

19:39 Fund manager positioning and low conviction levels

23:09 Retail vs professional investor positioning

25:52 Concerns about market timing and catalysts

28:37 Gold analysis and Eastern demand

31:46 Closing remarks and contact information