2026 Midterms Polling Update

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the range beat. It feels like it's trying to divide people. We got clear facts. Maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News reporting for America. Wait, this is a soda? Yeah. And it has protein? 10 grams. No sugar? Zero. And it actually tastes good? It's skypop. Skypop protein soda delivers the refreshing taste you want from a real soda. Chris and delicious with 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and just 45 calories. So you're not choosing between great taste and real benefits. You're getting both in every sip. Skypop protein soda. Reach for the sky.

1:00Get your skypop protein soda now at Target, Albert Sands, Bonzer, Ralphs. Hello, it's your partner, Big Boy. Big boys, neighborhood. 30 years ago, Jay-Z gave us reasonable doubt. Now, think about that. 30 years. And look at everything that came after. We're talking about the music, the influence, the way he helps ship the culture. 25 grams is the rock and roll hall of fame and records we still live with today. And when it comes to Jay-Z, I'm a fan first. So to see Jay-Z celebrate 30 years like this, oh yeah. That's special. I flew to New York to see Jay-Z 30 in New York. Now, Los Angeles, we get a chance to see it right here. Jay-Z 30 is going down in Los Angeles, we're talking two nights at SoFi Stadium. October 23rd and 24th. Get your tickets right now to experience it. That's right, Jay-Z 30 Live Nation.com. Grab your tickets. Hey, everybody, it's me, Debbie C'mon Bell. This season on my podcast, Who's With Me, I speak with Bruce Lee's daughter, Brandon Lee's sister, and my friend, Shannon Lee. Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy

2:03and giving my energy to that. You're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life. Listen to Who's With Me with Debbie C'mon Bell on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Sensational News in the heart of South Coast. Skyline OC, Orange County's tallest residence, is now selling from the 600s to 3 million. Experience sun-filled modern residences with stunning views, resort-inspired amenities, and a prestigious address celebrating the quintessential OC lifestyle. Unlock priority access to new condo inventory and limited time buyer incentives. Visit skylineiHeart.com. Call the media. Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Garrison Davis. Joined by Robert Evans. Hello.

3:03Hello, Garrison Davis. How are you doing today? I'm doing okay. I'm really, I'm getting prepared to vote. I'm... Yeah. I'm psyching myself up. Just like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps told you to do, huh? I think that's what we want to start with. This isn't... In general, this episode will be kind of going over the midterm polls as they are in early October, kind of what we can get a sense of the election about a month out. Now, there were just a few weeks away from the election. But a few weeks ago, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Friends of the pod. Sure. At this point, man, it's... One bad day, full solidist, full... Full... Full Maoist, at this... I mean, that's more... It's a slightly differentist, but... A few weeks ago, the IRGC released a 26-page letter, not short. Yeah.

4:03Not strong on brevity, the IRGC. Addressed to the American people, a spokesperson from the IRGC, told Reuters, quote, The American people are not knowledgeable about many developments. We believe if they knew more, they would think differently and take other decisions, unquote. You guys might have more faith in the American people than I do at this point. The start of the letter and how its addressed reads to the honorable people of the United States of America, the scholars, the students, and the members of the media. I think that last part is important because at least some of them know that the American people are not reading a 26-page letter. This is going to be... Most they read by journalists. This is going to be read by nerds on Twitter. And... And nerds on Twitter. Yeah. Now, I actually was able to get a short video. The IRGC also released a short video kind of summarizing the letter. And I will... We'll play that here for Robert. Here comes Robert. Robert.

5:03Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. Robert. So that's, yeah, that's the special... That's the special video. Yeah, that really is. That's something else. So there's a few sections before. The bulk of the letter is arguing why Iran is the victor in the war, concrete evidence of Iran's victory. They have a section on the meaning of, quote, death to America. Yeah. Which reads, quote, death to America does not in any way express any ill will toward the American people who have themselves suffered through the same oppression. Death to America is a prayer for the eradication of the diabolical ruling elite whose seat of power is in the White House. And the letter goes on to say that the IRGC and the people of Iran have no feeling of hostility toward the American people. And then they ask, how can the US be saved? And this is what leads to the bulk of the letter, which is essentially trying to get Americans to vote harder. Oh, which...

6:04You're, you're finished vases of. Oh, man. But there's also a few other interesting kind of like a name drops here. Quote, God will come to the aid of the American people if they decide to change course. Thankfully, Americans are waking up to the truth over the past two years Americans have participated in numerous demonstrations in cities across the US to express their outrage at Israel's genocidal actions in Gaza. Moreover, the no kings rallies that swept across the US last year in the IRGC were a nation right repudiation of the burgeoning autocratic tendencies within the American government. These powerful manifestations of collective action or evidence of a national awakening spreading through the US. Holds show that the majority of Americans, especially younger Americans, no longer wish to be complicit in their government's crimes against other nations. Unquote. Part of what makes this so funny to me is how dimension-clean opposed it is to the messaging coming out of like, you know, US-based like Maoists or like anti-imperialists.

7:08Oh, yeah, like the US far left absolutely. Yes. Yes. There's so much, so much more generous to the American people. And yeah, that's something that's really that's really funny to me as for the vote harder section. We'll just read one paragraph here. Your response may be that you do not accept these atrocious actions, but are powerless to do anything about them. This answer, however, is not acceptable. You are the ones who empower with your votes. The government had allowed to do what it wants, although American politicians often win your votes through deception of false promises, as Trump did. You can change the makeup of the government if you apply the criteria for good leadership and choosing the people you vote into office. See, guys, I got to tell you I smell that EC. First off, I've voted every time I've gotten the chance pretty much. I don't think I've ever empowered anyone with my votes. You know, it's one of those kind of Adam Curtis moments. Yeah. We have the IRGC advocating the ideal of electoral politics, something that does not exist really in Iran.

8:13Either it's consistent with there's that one famous interview with an Iranian cleric where he's like as Alexander to talk to who I'm sure all Americans have read one set. He's like, guys, you are way overestimating us. So yeah, if you have any sort of anti imperialist impulses as per as per the IRGC, get your voter registration up to date. Get your voter registration card and get out there. If you're in line, stay in line. That's right. So part of my newsletter was released is because it is just a few a few weeks away from the midterms. We are less than a month away from the 2026 midterm elections. And so I thought we should do a little update on polling and take a look at some of the close races. Sure. So whatever talking about the current makeup of Congress right now in the house, 218 seats are held by Republicans 214 by Democrats.

9:13And there's one independent who coxes with the Republicans 218 seats are what's needed for a majority. This has been a very a very a small majority that the Republicans have been able to hold on to in the house these past these past few years. The political report is forecasting that the Dems will pick up around five to 15 seats in the midterms, likely putting them in charge of the house with anywhere between 220 to 230 seats. And this lead in polling the and their projected victory has only grown these past few weeks. It's not becoming a closer race for the Republicans. No, this things don't look good for them because gasoline costs all of the money in your pocket now. That is a huge factor. That's a big part of the reason. I'll go over some of the kind of main issues driving the election person polling and gas prices is like number one or number two. Yeah, I have trouble imagining anything other than other cost of living stuff being like a larger impact on voters.

10:15Something that is interesting, the redistricting across Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah, well, like they have a minimal impact in the results like in total. There's obviously for the people actually impacted the people whose votes are being diluted, especially not that this is not bad or a problem. It's just they have fucked up enough that it's not going to benefit them to the extent that's that's what it seemed like. Yes, that like they're not going to benefit the way that they were. No, so I don't want to you discount the impact of the erosion of the voting rights act by any means or the just larger structural issues as part of the engineering mandering. But in analysis by Harvard estimated a net gain of only two seats for Republicans in these midterms, though other estimates give them a few more seats anywhere between five to nine. So we're looking at somewhere between a couple seats. I think nine is probably a bit optimistic. Yeah, for the Republicans around two to five seats. They could net because of the redistricting measures and could might.

11:17Yeah, even that gain will likely be undone in the coming years going into 2028 when Virginia is able to push forward its redistricting again, which they tried to do earlier, but because of a procedural error, it was shot down. So that that will also net Democrats a few more seats that will start to kind of even things out. And then we had this whole little fun redistricting for nothing. Yeah, it's a real just a marker of how badly they have botched their their starting, you know, position going into this administration. Just kind of a catastrophic series of political decisions. We'll see if any of that matters, but it really does highlight how pissed off people are. Now obviously the Senate is kind of the big question here. Yeah, will Democrats be able to actually take the Senate will be able to control all of Congress not just the House? Yeah, currently the Republicans have a 53 seat majority plus a Federman and the vice president who can vote.

12:18So which is so that kind of really throws a wrench in all these numbers. The the Federman factor and the Vance factor. Yeah, the Democrats just have 45 seats plus two independence, who caucus with the Democrats like Bernie Sanders. So essentially things actually sit at like 54 to 46 adjusting for independence and Federman. So Democrats really need a net gain of like four to five seats to be able to have the Senate be a more of a competitive, you know, voting, voting arena. Also, you know, considering JD Vance. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot next month. So Democrats will need to flip around four to five seats, like I said. And one of the seats Democrats have wanted to flip for a long time. And especially this year is main with Susan Collins. One of our worst lawmakers. Yes. And Republicans, as I reported on ED a few few weeks ago, the public I did that great investigation into into military con tracking corruption and a bribery like evolving Susan Collins.

13:27So Union logger Troy Jackson is trying to unseat Collins. Right now this race leans D or is a toss up. Marist has Jackson up four points ahead of Collins among registered voters. But with a margin of error of 3.8%. So that's essentially still almost within the margin of error. This is going to be a very close race, right? A margin of error like that. This is still basically a toss up. Other polling shows roughly the same results. Jackson up a few points, but within the margin of error. Per Marist among the main electorate, 57% think Collins will win. That's not saying 57% want Collins to win, but they think that will happen. Right? That's what they think is more likely. A survey from the main people's resource center found Jackson ahead among independent voters, 58% to 33% for Collins. The main people's resource center is a progressive leaning institution.

14:30Obviously this race and main has been a big shit show to say the least. And since Jackson has taken over as the nominee, Democratic Party's abstinence have really swooped into Maine. And trying to keep Jackson on a tight leash. Jackson's campaign has not replicated the Platner style like intensive town hall strategy. I think that would be a bad idea. Like it would be really obvious if he just tried to be a grand platner without the scandal, right? Yeah, I let's try to be a grand platner, but I think it is the style of campaigning is very different. Yeah. Jackson's on his accessible to the electorate consultants have tried to keep him from doing Q&A's at the events that he does end up doing. They've been dissuading him from talking about ice and Israel and Palestine. Great. So they've really have been trying to keep him keep him on a pretty tight leash. There's a story in New York magazine a few weeks ago that kind of details how Democratic establishment consultants have been trying to lead the Jackson campaign.

15:34That if people are interested in that specific topic, I recommend they check out. So this is one of the races that Democrats really do need to flip if they have a chance of winning the Senate. And it is theoretically possible. He may be slightly ahead in the polls, but only very slightly, but I think this is essentially a toss up. Especially looking back at 2020 when the Democrat in that race also was a little bit ahead and Collins still ended up walking away with it. Yeah. I think they're, I mean, they're both trying to avoid having another platner who gets out of control of them and is saying shit that the DNC does not want to have to stand by. And I think they are also hoping that platners campaign at least did enough damage to Collins that she isn't going to be able to like pull out a win this time. Maybe that'll be the case. You know, that might wind up being a play that works. Definitely. It's not a great position to have someone who was doing as well as platner had been doing get dropped out with a scandal that fucked up.

16:37Like that's a, that's not easy to handle. Yes, especially mobilizing that many people who were already kind of disillusioned with politics, giving them that sort of hope and then having that hope be ripped away. And then those people who maybe some of them who even still want to, you know, be politically engaged, the Jackson campaign is not letting them touch the campaign with it with the time to pull, which you maybe understand the reasons for. But there's a lot of like grassroots, you know, very like working class oriented activists who want to be involved in some way that are, that are not being tapped. Yeah. As strong as Platner's campaign was, it was because it was built on the work that they were doing. Yeah. Not just him as a person. Yeah. So that those are sort of complicating factors in this race. And you know, it's a complicating factor in this podcast episode, Garrison. The fact that we have to pivot to ads in order to pay the bills. We have to pivot to ads right now. Yeah, that is a complicating factor in our lives. So do with 10 grams of complete protein that tastes like your favorite soda.

17:40Meet Skypop, zero sugar, only 45 calories and no misleading collagen fillers. Skypop protein soda. Reach for the sky. Get Skypop now at Target, Albertsons, Vons, or Ralphs. Hello, it's your partner, big boy. Big boys neighborhood. 30 years ago, Jay-Z gave us reasonable doubt. Now think about that. 30 years. And look at everything that came after. We're talking about the music, the influence, the way he helped shed the culture. 25 Grammys, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and records we still live with today. And when it comes to Jay-Z, I'm a fan first. So to see Jay-Z celebrate 30 years like this. Oh yeah, that's special. I flew to New York to see Jay-Z 30 in New York. Now, Los Angeles, we get a chance to see it right here. Jay-Z 30 is going down in Los Angeles, which I'll be two nights at SoFi Stadium. October 23rd and 24th. Get your tickets right now to experience it. That's right, Jay-Z 30 LiveNation.com. Grab your tickets. I'm Hamza. And I'm Martin. And we're the hosts of Out of Character. It's a podcast. I know.

18:40There's a lot of them to listen to these days. How are you going to get to us? Well, there's a specific reason why you should listen to us. We are the best podcast in the entire world. I swear. I know. Bold. But why don't we list some of the things we might talk about on a regular episode? So, sometimes we'll talk about, I don't know, the Uber driver we just had. And how nice they were, or if we tip them or not, come and find out. Sometimes we'll talk about that weird news story from last week. It's the one you're thinking about. Trust me. Or maybe we'll talk about music and what's happening in the underground or drama and music or TV shows or the Med Galen, what the actors wore. What we're saying is we're not afraid to talk about everything under the sun. And if you want to see what that's like, come join us. It's a place where everyone can hang out, anyone, wherever you're from, whatever you're like, you're welcome. Listen out of character from Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Pods, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Melissa Jeltsin and in my new podcast, what happened to her? I'm bringing you new stories and conversations every week.

19:43Stories about women whose deaths were too quickly ruled a suicide. She was starting to get worried and get scared for her safety. Stories of survival. The only difference between me and her, frankly, was a little bit of luck because by all rights, I should be dead. Cases that everyone else called closed. They can't convict her, right? Like, she has so much evidence. These stories all start in the same place. With a woman failed by a system that didn't believe her, that didn't protect her, that didn't see her. No child should ever experience that. And we were babies. She did all of these grave things and came out and spoke about it and he got a year. I never know who that devil is because he's wearing disguise. Sometimes it's a police uniform. Listen to what happened to her on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Sensational news in the heart of South Coast.

20:45Skyline OC, Orange County's tallest residence, is now selling from the 600s to 3 million. Experience sun-filled modern residences with stunning views, resort-inspired amenities, and a prestigious address celebrating the quintessential OC lifestyle. Unlock priority access to new condo inventory and limited time buyer incentives. Visit skylineiHeart.com And we're back. How do you feel about North Carolina, Robert? Of the Carolinas? Definitely my favorite. That's that's so true. Actually, the best of the Carolinas. Top 50% Carolinas. Start everyone in South Carolina. Not apology. I did not apologize. South Carolina. You need to know that. Well, North Carolina could also be one of the states that flip for the devs. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is facing former R&C chair, Michael Wattley.

21:46What a name. Who is running to replace Republican Senator Tom Tillis. Those are both silly names. Have some sulfur spec. God damn it. This race is leaning Democrat. This is not a toss-up. Yeah. Polls from late September have Cooper ahead five to 13 points. Yep, that's pretty good. And last week, a Republican Super PAC pulled 30 million dollars of ad money out of the state to use in other races. So that's a sign that at least even among some Republicans, they're kind of giving up on this. Roy Cooper is a pretty strong candidate for this state. I should say, as we're going through all of these sort of candidates, this is not it can happen here endorsing any candidate just because they belong to one party or another. Not our thing. I'm just talking about this in terms of what the Democrats want in order to take back power and the sort of how these candidates relate to each state. Roy Cooper is a relatively liked figure in North Carolina.

22:47That is reflected in the polling for this. His campaign has also helped by the fact he's not going up against in the company. He's not going up against someone who voters already are familiar with already like who they just want to keep in power. He's going up against a new guy, a former R&C chair. So this is one of those states where the Democrats will probably flip. You can kind of count this on the four to five states needed to flip. This is the most kind of certain one. There'd be a massive polling error if it goes the other way or some sort of fuckery. And just to just a total misread of the situation on the ground. One of the more interesting kind of surprises is Alaska, which could also flip for Democrats. Former Democratic Congressman Mary Peltola is going up against sitting Senator Dan Sullivan. Peltola is definitely running more as like a centrist, very pro fossil fuels in Alaska. Yeah. Progun to her campaign slogan is fish family freedom.

23:50Yeah. That makes sense. Not a terrible slogan for running Alaska. Not bad for Alaska. And rather than attacking Republicans, a lot of her campaign messaging is focused on taking on quote, DC. It's very much like Alaska versus DC. Yeah. Corruption is a massive issue for the whole electorate. So that makes sense. Yeah. Kind of the obvious play. And really prioritizing Alaska as like a its own special interest because it's so different from every other state. Part of Peltola strategy is trying to attract certain Republicans. So why she's not really going hard against Republicans per se, but attacking a sort of like DC swamp establishment. That's her main strategy here. New York Times, see on a poll from late September to early October has Peltola up seven points. Yeah. That's a pretty solid lead. Alaska has been wavering the last couple of elections between blue and red. So this is not like a sea change, right?

24:51It's kind of an incremental change in some of the, the, and obviously the disaster that this administration has pushed things further along than I think it otherwise would be, but this is, it's been moving in this direction a while. Yeah. And like Alaska hasn't had a Democratic senator in like almost 20 years. This would be significant event. It's just happened. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn't mean to say it wouldn't. I've just been like this pattern has been occurring since before like Trump too, right? And obviously there's this general pattern of in the midterms usually, especially the house, but sometimes the Senate as well shifts to the opposition party. The OCCP politics 101. This is a very basic pattern. And what we're looking at is this could be even stronger this year than some years previously, probably not as strong as 2018, but taking back the Senate and the House would be huge, especially because of how far they have to go in the Senate in order to retake it. Yeah. Now the race in Alaska, this definitely used to lean Republican, right? This was not seen to be a very competitive race, but recently this went to a toss up, right?

25:54And now some models even have it leaning Democrat. So this is one race for this been a lot of movement. And JD Vance was dropped in to Alaska to campaign for Sullivan last week. Something that they may not have needed to do or thought they needed to do a few months ago. But now this is competitive enough that they're sending in the vice president. Will JD Vance actually help Republicans win the state? That's certainly debatable. But I don't know if I would be putting JD in as my pension. That's the thing, right? I don't know who I put in as my pensioner right now in their Republican bench, but it would not. Vance would be the bottom of my list. Like honestly, send in Federman. No, let's get it back to the list. But yes, he'll do better for you in this. Federman to campaign for the Republicans would be, I think, probably a smarter move. Yeah, you could convince him to do it. What a nightmare. What a horrible situation. It's a thing's are really bad, buddy.

26:56Things are really bad. I know when like we were getting shot at by federal agents in Portland, things were bad, but things are a lot darker. Yeah, well, I'm about to get maybe shot at by federal agents in like 20 minutes. Yeah, because they just shot a dude with an actual gun in New York. Time is a spiral. Yeah. Let's talk about Texas. Sure. Yeah. I'm excited to talk about Texas because this is the first time I get to be like a little optimistic about more than like two Texas elections actually. So yeah, I'm excited. Let's talk about Tala Freco. Tala Freco. It's in terms of the set of the big, big question is Texas with James Tala Rico going up against Kenny Pax. Can Paxton? K Pax is I like to call him. You probably didn't see that movie, Garrison. It's not good. No. No. I did just see out of sight the Steven Soderbergh movie. I don't know if I've seen that one. From like the 90s. It's like it's like the proto-Ocean's 11.

27:57Okay. It's the hottest I've ever seen George Clooney. He plays like a serial bank robber. That's a good role for him. Who keeps going to jail, prison, then he breaks out and then it kind of cuts between a few different timelines as he gets into a sort of doomed romance with a federal marshal played by Jennifer Lopez. Okay. I was going to say I've seen this movie and then. Well, no, I have seen this movie with J-Lo. Yeah. I have seen this movie. It's hard to tell because like the first half of that description is like 18 different George Clooney. He's like a bank robber. He keeps going to prison. No, especially like the late 90s early 2000s. This is like his role. He has this like on lock. The hottest bank robber you've ever seen. Yeah. People love a criminal. Speaking of Ken Paxed. Not doing great in the polls. Yeah. Marist and New York Times, Lashliana, have Talleriko up six points as of late September. With a recent Fox News poll showing Talleriko at 51% to Paxton's 49%.

29:01Not good for old K-Pax. No. There's also this big enthusiasm gap that the Fox News poll really focused on. Among mega Republicans, 64% say they're extremely interested in the midterms. But for non mega Republicans, only 50% is extremely interested in the midterms. So that's almost like a 15% gap among Republicans for how much they're invested in these midterms. Wow. And this difference does not exist on the Democratic side. The Fox News polling has Democrats broken down into two categories. Similar to you know, mega and non mega. They have DSA Democrats and non DSA Democrats. Which is funny on its face. DSA Democrats are at 68% non DSA is at 67%. So basically no gap. Geez. And I think this has less to do with Talleriko's specific characteristics as a candidate and everything to do with the fact that Ken Paxing is the literal Christian devil.

30:06Yes, he is saying that people want to see him beaten. Yes. But I mean, these numbers are not just interesting because of the gap between mega and non mega Republicans, but also mega Republicans are at 64% for enthusiasm versus Democrats are at 67, 68. So that's that that's a few points ahead just for enthusiasm against the mega kind of hardcore. And the other really worrying part of this for Republicans is that out of the percent that say that they will vote mega is at 76% non mega is at 65%. That's an 11 11% gap. And similarly, this gap does not exist for the Democrats DSA or otherwise. That is really interesting. And it says a lot about mega Republicans that they have so hard core. Completely given up any kind of like moral. Do not care for their candidates. Do not care does not matter at all. In a lot of the country, Republicans and mega Republicans are synonyms, but that's not the case in a lot of Texas.

31:09Like Texas has a lot of Bush Republicans still. Yeah, I mean, like those people still likely are going to vote for Trump in the presidential elections. Absolutely. But oversimplifying their like all of their politics to mega is a I think it's a sort of theoretical mistake. Those people are not some of them are, but because there's there's a chunk of Republicans that look like they're going to Tallariko, but it's not a huge chunk. No, it's more that some of them just aren't going to vote or are going to put in like a protest candidate. You know, I've read some interviews that stands with like Republican voters who are on sort of the Bush Republicans side of things being like, I'm just going to put in a protest voter something, which in this instance is just as good as voting for Tallariko in terms of stopping Paxton from winning again. Because the Republicans who have some degree of moral fiber left are also disgusted with Ken Paxton. He's gross on that topic. I don't know if you saw this. Ken Paxton's ex-wife who was a Texas state senator, yeah, was tapped for an election ad where she does not even say her ex-husband's name.

32:11No, just a big people to vote for the quote Republican ticket to see on the team. I want to play the ad. Yeah, God, this is great. I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton. People have asked my thoughts about this election and turns out I have some. Let's talk about the elephant in the room. In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team. That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd. Let's hold the line together. Texas Paxton is responsible for the content of his advertising. Rousing won't even say a name. Rousing message. Crazy stuff. Wow. Wild stuff. Hold your nose and vote for my shitty ex, the psychopath. Especially because she starts by saying, let's interest the elephant in the room. And then doesn't. Does not interest the elephant. Can't bring herself to say his name.

33:11Oh my God, that's amazing. It's one of the most incredible political ads I've ever seen. That's as good as I may as well play this one. This is technically a house, a house ad. Unfortunately, we're going to drop it here in the Senate section, but in terms of talking about political ads. This is an ad running in Ohio in response to a series of anti trans ads that the Republicans have been blasting in the airwaves. Seeing these ads, they're a complete lie. Records show not only is this woman actually from Texas. She didn't have any surgery as a minor, but John Houston, he protected men who abused young girls by voting in the Senate to block the release of the Epstein files. Maybe that's because Houston took $116,000 from associates of Jeffrey Epstein 10 times more than any other senator. John Houston should be ashamed. I'm sure Brown and I approve this message. It's that easy. It's that easy, folks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

34:11The ads made for you, really. If the Republicans want to make, quote unquote, protecting young girls, the center of their politics, they fucking handed you the silver platter that the Epstein's right there. Yeah. It's frustrating because Taleriko has fucking recently made some kind of bows to the anti trans kids in sports panic, shit, which was very, very, watchy, flippy floppy not standing firmly where he should be certainly. No. And I don't think that's helping him. Honestly, I think the primary thing helping him is that compactness and the bomb of the monster. Yeah. He's awful. He's the devil. Like, and to run against the devil, you simply have to not be the devil. I guess it's harder than that. Trump won. And also offer people real things as well. I think I'm not being fair to the campaign. Like he has run a much better campaign than that. So I'm also just saying like in general, I think the sort of running as just not Trump has that, yes, that's not one as a strategy. That's not enough. Taleriko has worked hard to portray himself as other than being a Democrat, like a Texas Christian that Texans can, you know, find respectable, right?

35:20Yeah. We'll talk a little bit more about Texas, but first, here are some ads. What if your soda actually did something for you, introducing Skypop Protein Soda. Skypop Protein Soda has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and real delicious soda taste. Skypop Protein Soda. Reach for the sky. Get your Skypop Protein Soda now at Target. Hello, it's your partner, big boy. Big boy's neighborhood. 30 years ago, Jay-Z gave us reasonable doubt. Now think about that. 30 years. And look at everything that came after. We're talking about the music, the influence, the way he helps shed the culture. 25 Grammys, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and records we still live with today. And when it comes to Jay-Z, I'm a fan first. So to see Jay-Z celebrate 30 years like this. Oh yeah, that's special. I flew to New York to see Jay-Z 30 in New York. Now, Los Angeles, we get a chance to see it right here. Jay-Z 30 is going down in Los Angeles, which I'll be tonight at SoFi Stadium.

36:22October 23rd and 24th. Get your tickets right now to experience it. That's right, Jay-Z 30 LiveNation.com. Grab your tickets. I'm Hamza. And I'm Martin. And we're the hosts of Out of Character. It's a podcast. I know. There's a lot of them to listen to these days. How are you going to get to us? Well, there's a specific reason why you should listen to us. We are the best podcast in the entire world. I swear. I know. Bold. But why don't we list some of the things we might talk about on a regular episode? So, sometimes we'll talk about, I don't know, the Uber driver we just had. And how nice they were, or if we tip them or not, come and find out. Sometimes we'll talk about that weird news story from last week. It's the one you're thinking about. Trust me. Or maybe we'll talk about music and what's happening in the underground or drama and music or TV shows or the Med Galen, what the actors wore. What we're saying is we're not afraid to talk about everything under the sun. And if you want to see what that's like, come join us. It's a place where everyone can hang out, anyone, wherever you're from, whatever you're like, you're welcome.

37:26Listen out of character from Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Pods, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Melissa Jeltsin and in my new podcast, what happened to her, I'm bringing you new stories and conversations every week. Stories about women whose deaths were too quickly ruled a suicide. She was starting to get worried and get scared for her safety. Stories of survival. The only difference between me and her, frankly, was a little bit of luck because by all rights, I should be dead. Cases that everyone else called closed. They can't convict her, right? Like, she has so much evidence. These stories all start in the same place. With a woman failed by a system that didn't believe her, that didn't protect her, that didn't see her. No child should ever experience that. And we were babies. She did all of these grave things and came out and spoke about it and he got a year. I never know who that devil is because he's wearing disguise. Sometimes it's a police uniform.

38:30Listen to what happened to her on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. Last year we had Mike Bickdottel, Sam Darnel on the field after the game. But that was last year. If you're a football sickle like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show. It is in the name NFL Daily fresh content in your feed every day all season long. Matthew Stafford coming off his MVPC. On a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford. Big time trades that shake up the NFL. AJ Brown is loose. And of course those Seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trope. The Seahawks win Super Bowl 60. They are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest. If it's happening on a football field, NFL Daily will cover it.

39:30Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. I did want to mention one more thing about the K-PAC campaign. Paxton Cinnett campaign recently put out a series of missing posters demanding proof of life for James Tallahuret. A little less than two weeks ago he took sick with the flu. He got diagnosed on September 30th. And after that he had to attend a Hispanic Business Council meeting via video that had been scheduled to attend in person. He told attendees I'm running a fever and I'm at my most contagious right now. And I guess I've been shaking too many hands on the campaign trail so I want to keep everybody safe. He stated that if he passed his illness to somebody's grandmother or baby, he couldn't live with himself. Totally reasonable thing. But Paxton's campaign put out this like old West looking like wanted poster of him demanding proof of life

40:30because he's been absent 12 days from the campaign trail. They're doing the fucking Mitch McConnell bullshit. Yeah, it's nonsense. He's been making statements. He's just not, he's sick. That happens. He's booked for a CNN town hall in October 14th. There's been a pretty bad illness going around. I think there's probably a few. There is a cold. There is a there is a COVID strain. And he's young for politics. But he's also at the age in which flu's in shit hit yard. Yeah, like he's not not a baby. I did see a clip from the president in the past few days talking about this. And he said that Paxton's hiding because he's been forced to eat meat when running. And so he's been vomiting up meat all the time. And that's why he's not what not visible. Donald, what the fuck? Because Trump's been, Trump just learned what veganism is. Yeah. And he said he said he said it really funny. And it's been like the main thing he's been attacking, Tala, Tala Freco with is that the fact that he's like a ledger. Alleged vegan, right? Because he's not a vegan.

41:30Yes. Like no, even if you were a vegan, if you wanted to win a major election in Texas, you would lie about that. Yeah. That's almost more of a disqualifying factor in Texas politics than being a Democrat. But yeah, that's been the main thing Trump's been trying to attack Tala Freco for. Is this alleged vegan status and the idea that Tala Freco is having to fake being a meat eater and has gotten sick from eating meat and is thus vomiting. And that's why he's out of the spotlight. Yeah, of course. That's definitely it. Simple, you basic stuff. Politics 101. Yeah, politics is something or other. The gubernatorial election is also going to be this year for Texas. And this is like the first time in a while that it's looked actually kind of competitive. Gina Hinojosa is running against Greg Abbott, who is right up there with Ken Paxton in terms of being an evil scumbag. Like he is just a monster, although a much more popular monster than Ken Paxton is with voters.

42:34But even so, Hinojosa is giving him a run for his money. Right now the real clear politics average trend has Abbott at 48.1 and Hinojosa at 46.4. But there are several polls that have Hinojosa ahead, including you, Gov. The New York Times, Ciena Pol has her up by three. Marist has her up by three. Okay. Recon, MR, Ciena has her up by four. Now, obviously there are some like Telomundo has Abbott up by seven. Okay. Box has Abbott up by five. And there are definitely more polls that have Abbott ahead. But this looks close enough that like it's being considered by a lot of people to be a toss up or close to a toss up. It's competitive. It's competitive. Like she really could pull it off. I'm not saying I think that's the likeliest thing to happen here, because this is still Texas. And I just can't be that optimistic about the gubernatorial race. But I would love it if Gina could unseat Greg Abbott because he is just a fucking monster.

43:34And yeah, she's running a really good campaign. Yeah, she's currently in the House of Representatives representing the 49th district. The Texas House or the federal in the Texas House. She's a state legislator. The Texas House, okay. Got it. Yeah. And she worked for the AFL prior to that. She's been a lawyer for quite some time. She was part of the legal team that sued Tom Delay. The Hina Yoses are like a prominent North Texas family. I went to school with one of her, I don't know if it was her kid or like a cousin or something. But like the Hina Yoses are like a prominent wealthy family in North Texas. So it's very interesting that she's and I haven't enough of a deep dive. I think a lot of what's helping her is just the general unpopularity of the Republican party right now. And I do kind of suspect that Greg Abbott is being dragged down a little bit by Ken Paxton too. Like that, that just the general, the overall trend. And also like I think Hina Yoses probably benefiting from some of the enthusiasm that Talariko's campaign has helped to generate too, right? Obviously she's also made a lot of really good moves on her own that have increased enthusiasm.

44:38But in general, I think because Texas looks competitive in a way it really hasn't. It's benefiting probably both candidates a lot. Just that that is bringing more people out to volunteer. It's bringing more people out to donate. Creating this impression that like this might be a winnable fight has done a lot. Yeah. So that's one to keep watch on again, I would say a gun to my head Abbott's still probably gonna eat out a victory. But I can't say definitely, right? Yeah, he does have that sort of like incumbent advantage. And that's another factor with the Talariko Paxton thing. Paxton does not have that incumbent advantage. I think Corbin would be a much harder candidate for Talariko to beat. This wouldn't be an election if Corbin had won the primary. That's why we were sort of softly excited when Paxton won. Yes. As dangerous as it is for Paxton potentially be in the Senate, he has a much bigger attack radius or attack surface. Attack surface than Corning does.

45:38Another one of these kind of long shots. It's actually, I would say the biggest long shot for a flip is in Florida with progressive Democrat Angie Nixon running against Ashley Moody who took Rubio's seat. The best poll for Nixon as of a few days ago is by Florida politics. And according to them, the race is at a tie, 45%. But a recent poll from Stetson University has Moody leading 51 to 40. So 11 points. You go up poll from late September to early October has Moody five points ahead with 5% of likely voters still undecided. Though actually as of just a few hours ago as of recording, we're recording this on Thursday night. Florida politics did another poll which shows Moody at 47% and Angie Nixon at 45% within margin of error. So slight difference from the last poll that had them tied.

46:38This is one of those races that the Democrats as like the DNC is not actually expecting Nixon to win. So like they're not really pumping much money in or really any money in. So like they're not helping. All of this is the result of just Nixon being a really good politician. Like the fact that the race is this close. And like in the Nixon sort of like like sleeper candidate. Like I was not familiar with Nixon until the primary. And I've seen since then I've watched videos of her working in the state house from these past few years. And then campaign appearances. She is great. She is really good. A really clear communicator of working class issues, issues impacting the black community in Florida. Right. This is Florida state. We often like reduce to kind of the worst of the worst people. But there's a lot of like good people in Florida as well. They just haven't been represented in in politics for almost as long as I've been alive. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it gets forgotten. But there's like a reason why the 2000 election hinged on Florida.

47:40Yeah. And it was because it was really close. And I'm really interested to see what the results of this race is because this will indicate kind of how much Trump is hurting the Republicans. If it's like a really, really close race. If the results are really close. And then we'll also point to Nixon's strength as a candidate. And I'm interested to watch what she does after this election, whether or not she wins. Now, of course, there's the other close race, which is in Michigan, which currently leans Democrat with a dual L.C.E. Don average polling about 3% ahead of former Republican congressman Mike Rogers. Amarist poll from late September has L.C.E. at 51 to Rogers 44, a seven point lead. That's L.C.E. its most favorable poll. Only or time see on a poll from mid September. She'll also eat up five points. A fox poll has an up one point. If a dual wins, Dems could hold on to this seat, strengthening their chances of controlling the Senate, but this would not be a flip. So this is something that they really need to hold on to in order to have a chance.

48:40But this will not go towards the sort of four to five seats they need in order to flip. Before we close, I do want to just mention a few of the sort of underlying factors that could be influencing this election. One of the big ones just is Trump. And how much everyone hates him. He has a 36% approval rating, which is the lowest pre midterm approval rating in 50 years. Yeah, that makes sense. Not good. Not great for the Republicans. Not what you'd want. No, not what you would want. And remember, I was talking about the enthusiasm gap that the fox poll was showing. The latest KFF health tracking poll. It's from the organization formally known as Kaiser Family Foundation. They found a very large enthusiasm gap between parties in their last poll with Democratic voters, much more likely than Republican voters to say they're quote more motivated to vote this year. Way more than usual. It's 63% to 38%. That's a huge gap.

49:40Yeah. The cost of health care and gas. Tie as voters top affordability worries. A quarter of respondents said that they are very worried about affording each ahead of food utilities and housing. So 25% said they were very worried about affording health care. 25% said they're very worried about affording gas. So that's the tie. It's that you 50% of the of the concern. It's those two. The Democratic Party has a clear edge over the Republican Party on who voters trust to handle. Many top issues in the election, including cost of health care. 42% of respondents trust the Democrats more on these issues. For cost of living, 39% respondents trust Democrats more, about to 25% for the Republicans. And the cost of living was the top issue for both Democrat and independent voters. While Republican voters wanted candidates to discuss, quote, fraud. That's the big issue for Republicans right now.

50:41So, you know, JD Vance's task for us. The post kind of doge thing is they're really obsessed with this idea of fraud. And not really the type of fraud that Robert or I would talk about. You know, I think everyone's pretty familiar with how much we're all being ripped off all the time. And you know, scam culture is huge corporate fraud. The only culture. It's everything, right? And that's not what Republicans are interested in. They are wanting to kick people off the public benefits, right? That's the type of fraud that they are mostly interested in. To close, the most interesting part about this KFF poll though is the numbers around Medicare for All. Quote, two thirds of the public, 66%, said they favor Medicare for All. The highest share KFF has recorded since it began polling the idea in 2016. And this is the really crazy part. About half 52% said they would favor Medicare for All if it eliminated private health insurance companies,

51:42while 47% opposed. That is a huge change from like five years ago. This has been always been the biggest kind of protest against Medicare for All. Is the idea that it would take away your private health care. When respondents get told this in polling, historically we've seen support for Medicare for All take a big dip. This is the first time a majority of respondents have said they would still support Medicare for All if it took away private health care. To quote KFF quote, this marks a departure from one KFF last asked this question in October 2020. When the prospect of eliminating private health insurance companies led to lower support for Medicare for All at just 37%. So this is a huge thing. And I would be remiss to mention most of these candidates were talking about in the Senate, the Democratic ones, Troy Jackson, Angie Nixon, Abdul, Hellsade. They are running on Medicare for All. This has become a big, resurgent topic this election across the healthcare is a big topic in these midterms.

52:43And rather than doing this sort of peat bootage edge style Medicare for All who wanted to notice kind of vaguely talking about having a public. Right. These candidates are being a bit more strict about Medicare for All as like an actual policy and as a is a policy guarantee. I think Abdul's policy has has some slight differences where it does not completely eliminate private health care, but it says that private health care should become redundant and still has a focus on a universal single payer system, which is much closer to the Bernie Sanders version. And then there's sort of like half-assed versions that we've seen from other progressive candidates running for president like six years ago. So something that maybe two or three years ago I felt like it's kind of like a political, you know, by gone this focus on like Medicare for All is definitely coming back in a big way. And people are not nearly as scared the prospect of them not having private insurance because private insurance sucks.

53:44And even worse, like we're we're white like two years after the mangeyoni assassination, things still suck. Everyone still hates healthcare companies. Yeah, only hate them more as time goes on. So yeah, that is the kind of rough overview of the issues affecting the midterms and where the polling stands now just a few weeks away from November. I want to say third. Let's see if I'm right. I am right. Boom. I do a few more polling updates on executive disorder as we get closer to to election day. Absolutely. But yeah, that's all from me here. Yeah. Remember guys do what the IRGC would want you to do. We're not telling you to vote. No, the Iranian government. We're not good stuff. It could happen here is a production of cool zone media from one podcast from cool zone media. Visit our website coolzonemedia.com or check us out on the I heart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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