2026 Lessons Learned & Playoff Updates! (10/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

0:00Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports Got a fantasy question email fantasy baseball at CBS hi dot com get ready to win your lead Now here's Frank Scott and Chris what did we learn this season the raise on the Yankees that is for sure Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday October 6th. I am Frank Samful joint by Scott White today on the show We will discuss our 2026 lessons learned how will they shape some 2027 philosophies perhaps some draft strategy as well But we will start with some playoff updates and I realize People might be listening to some of these podcasts at different times in the off season So it gets a little wonky But I feel like we have to react in the moment or at least I do because what when I just watch Scott was a complete

1:00embarrassment meltdown that I feel like I've seen 10 times in the past 10 years with this Yankee team and It was it was just a rough watch I realize everyone else out there is just like reveling in this and absolutely loving the Yankees just Completely crap the bed here in October But yeah game two just ended they had the same number of errors as hits in the game for errors for hits And it is just incredibly incredibly frustrating to watch as a fan Just a complete and utter embarrassment. It just feels like the Yankees shouldn't even be on the same field as the raise right It's just they shrill up in these huge moments and and you would expect after What happened to the world series a couple years ago? We're all the Dodgers players punk the Yankees and said all you got to do is put the ball in play and they they just you know They'll they'll mess up they were right and they continue to be right like nothing is changing here man So the razor up to zip and I don't have a lot of confidence. That's that's where I met Scott

2:02I feel like I'm doing New York talk radio right now like you just you just went off on a bunch of stuff I don't even know about I made the Yankees are really good I think the razor really good and I think this is basically the ALCS and so Razor up to nothing I looked it up Well, I just did a quick search on AI so maybe AI is wrong, but it's seven times and the LDS has a team come back from down to nothing including The Yankees in 2001 against the A's Don't try to give me hope. I'm just you know, it's it's never over Meanwhile the last time the last time we talked I was convinced My braves were gonna lose to the Phillies And that obviously didn't happen and now the series against the Dodgers is tied with With sail and Mally not of having even pitched yet this series and them not having played a home game yet this series So you know, there's feels pretty good hope I

3:04There's home for you huge. There's hope for you. I'm just saying like I you know it things fortunes can turn around quickly even in the playoffs and Razor tough though. Raise got a lot of good but Yankees have a lot of good pitching to but the rays do and that's When in doubt you give the side with pitching the edge Which is why you still have to give the Dodgers the edge in the brave series, but you know, there's there's chance You know what the gamble paid off for the braves not to start Chris sale in game two Which I understand was a massive decision, but on short rest and they went out and won that game and that series is tied Game three Chris sale going up against Yamamoto that could very well Decide the series there between those two teams and you're right Like the Yankees still have freed and Carl Sourdon set up for game three and four But look you just watched the race every year. They're just so buttoned up and they put the ball in play And they play good defense and they run the bases right. It's like the Yankees are just the complete antithesis of all that

4:05When's the last time the rays won the world series trying oh well they have I was gonna say they They have more No, I don't think that's true there. I was gonna say they have more world series appearances in the Yankees do in the past like Decade but I don't know they both been there once right in the past. I don't know whatever it is It doesn't matter I think I won the race twice in their history right and then the Yankees twice going back to 2009 so I think the Yankees Because the first time the race went wasn't 2008 2007. Yeah, so they basically have the same number of world series appearances in the past 20 years Let's call it so damn yeah, any who yeah Jurassicson in game one took a no hitter into the eighth inning so that was good too Looking around some of the other series who the white socks kind of I know you just said this feels like the ALCS The rays and and the Yankees but The white socks kind of have like this team of destiny thing going on right now Like they're coming through in the clutch. They're going with these like just crazy pitching strategy

5:08We saw this with the Tigers either last year or two years ago where they just Throw a bunch of different relievers and and guys all over the place and it's it's working right now I mean if you're a guardians fan going to Chicago after having Messick and Gavin Williams pitching games one and two It's pretty yeah pretty rough go there. So we'll see what happens I mean, that's what teams have to do don't have good rotations. That's yeah It's basically like the Braves have two starters Really that they're willing to actually start in the playoff game That's why you're getting these three inning Ray Curz starts and Dylan Dodd and I mean, there's just These these piece it together with all various bullpen arms going longer than they have all season But yeah, it's it's worked well for the white socks. I think the deeper you get into the playoffs is the harder that's gonna be to do Anything can happen It's so I'm not gonna sit here and guarantee that whoever wins this raise Yankees world see uh Raise Yankees series is going to the world series. I obviously can't guarantee that but

6:11Whoever wins it should be the heavy favorites and and the ALCS I I do feel comfortable saying that much on the other side in the national league Major league baseball or the Brewers somebody has to figure out what to do with like this Raptor situation It actually happened in the raise Yankees game here in game two as well where Spencer Jones hit went off the Raptors And it fell down and I think it was Victor Mesa who just caught it and it just it's an out But I guess the rules are at the R.I. Like if someone hits the ball off the Raptors It's just like still in play and we saw that come into play in game one of that series between the Brewers and the Padres Ty France hit a moonshot would look like it might have been a home run I don't know I don't know if it definitely would have been a home run But it was kind of trending that way and it just Hit off the Raptors came down and checks Trio caught the ball and Then in game two speaking of Trio. I mean he comes up Huge spot bases loaded against Mason Miller go ahead to run single there and just like two awesome just stars of the game Go ahead to head Mason Miller. I mean they overextended him. I think a little bit it sticks out save

7:15But you know obviously his control was waning there and and Trio took advantage But yeah, it's gonna be pretty hard for the Padres to come back from that So yeah, I don't know. I mean it looks like where we're dialed up for Brewers in the NLCS and then we'll see what what your what your braves can do against the Dodgers got any thoughts on the the Brewers Padres series That's probably the one I paid the least attention to It's been great. It's it's two great games Yeah, I they're up to nothing the favorite is up to nothing and so You know they head back to San Diego now maybe maybe that put gives gives the Padres a chance to get back in it but I'd like Obviously the Brewers A very strong team and they have very strong advantage now so Probably the Brewers are going to then LCS. Yeah, and I think this is an interesting theme and we were just talking about some of these white socks Relievers openers that they're just using them in different roles

8:17I think relievers who could be starters for next season. I think it's a nice talking point to kind of just bring this back to fantasy because Hagen Smith Grant Taylor and then for your braves what did he a Fwentis has done so far in game two against the Dodgers It was three and two thirds one hit one run three strikeouts there But he's basically been nails in the postseason and he's been great all year long as well I think all three of these guys are really talented Relievers and it'll be interesting to see I don't know for sure that all three will be starters next year my guess is I I would probably Lean that way as of now I think each of Hagen Smith Grant Taylor and Fwentis could be in their respective rotations But what they've done in the postseason the way they pitched in the regular season I would be very excited about those guys as potential sleeper candidates as starting pictures next season Yeah, I think rightfully if that happens and and I think it's very much an if right now, but We've heard Obviously all came up through the minors of starters and we've heard rumblings of that throughout this season and they were all dominant out of the bullpen

9:24I think Hagen Smith got the least attention Because he wasn't up for the majority of the year like those others two were playing a prominent role in their bullpins But Hagen Smith 18 appearances one start This year 129 ERA 0.96 whip 13.2 K per nine And this was a guy who had major control issues in the minors. I didn't even in that role is 5.1 walks per nine So that's That's something he's going to have to get a handle on to work as a starter but overall he dominated and we have seen In over the last couple years especially You put a dominant reliever in the starting role and it's it's tended to go well Uh, even for like Griffin jacks this year I know there was some skepticism. He would be able to to handle that transition, but it went really well Um, and we've seen a lot of those transitions in recent years actually turn out very well

10:27Yeah, I'm trying to remember there were even bigger ones two years ago. I guess Chris boobitch was one went well It's how trouble staying healthy. Yeah, I feel like the first one recently in the past handful of years was like Seth Lugo did it And then it really just kind of became a trend Trying to remember who else was another who did Michael King. Yeah, that's another one Hmm, I can't remember he and C more is kind of in that mix, but he's kind of in back. Sure I feel like there was somebody huge last year that we're just not think enough Uh, but yeah, but that's plenty of examples as it is Again, I'd be pretty excited the skills for all three of these guys again Hey, Gensmith, Grant Taylor, Fuentes I probably would rank Hagen Smith the lowest of the three although he had the highest prospect pedigree Just because of the control and some of those issues that we've seen so far in a very small sample But yeah, the control for Grant Taylor and Fuentes just looks better and the stuff plus numbers on all three guys Look really really good. So well, this wasn't quite I got a few more examples here just scanning through my rankings He kind of he took a more sir Q. It is route there, but redebors

11:31Yeah, like it seems like If a team Feels like they have somebody who can be a great arm in a rotation They almost use the bullpen is like a finishing school, you know, like they're not quite there the talent is there But they just kind of need to To put it all together and the bullpen helps them accomplish that For whatever reason. I mean yeah Another example would be drew rasmussen for that matter. It was they'd go back a few years for him But uh seem to do the trick patent tolly spent some time in the bullpen down the stretch last year not a long time But sometime yeah A lot I like it again three names you need to know for next season Hagen Smith Grant Taylor and diddy Fuentes If you're watching us on youtube Thank you for being here make sure to hit that like button and stay subscribed or if you haven't subscribed yet Subscribe will be here two times per week and till the end of December and then we'll start to ramp things back up as we

12:35Turn the calendar to the new year. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this Welcome back fantasy a baseball today We'll run through some news and notes and then we'll get to our lessons learned and how that might shape some strategy for next season But the latest news we usually get a bunch of you know once teams get eliminated from the playoffs We start to learn about okay. What's this guy dealing with what's that guy dealing with and so we did get a bunch of red socks updates Gar crochet is on track to have a fully healthy normal offseason apparently could have returned sooner But the red socks is really wanted to take a cautious approach with crochet who they've obviously given an extension and Expecting crochet that was the guy that was the huge one that is the guy yes Yeah, the bullpen to the Transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. Yeah, that was so on this is good news god I still have no idea where he should rank among starting pictures for next season. I think He probably has the widest range of outcomes right now Yeah, I think Chris mentioned this if you wanted to rank him as like a top 15 starter

13:38I don't think that's crazy if you ranked him at like SP 35 and I don't think that's crazy either forget crochet I think there are enough good pictures that people are going to be able to talk Them selves out of crochet. There isn't the desperation That uh maybe at other times in in the not so distant past there was for a high-end pitcher I think uh, I think we'll see him drafted More from a safe not sorry Approach and that would put him closer to the closer to 30 probably in the rank is I haven't gotten around to actually ranking them but just Just doing a little bit accounting in my head. I think that's where it's gonna end up Yeah, I will point out though with crochet If you are an early drafter, I would try to take advantage of any Massive discount you can now. I mean if you're a really early drafter if you're as crazy if you start to draft in like December January things like that

14:39But if we see him in spring training look anything like himself I mean that is somebody who's that's gonna completely skyrocket So just keep that in mind with garracroche Roman Anthony is not expected to require surgery on his injured right hand Craig Brazlow said the team is still gathering information as Anthony aggravated the injury And then some during the postseason remember he was dealing with There was like a wrist thing going on in the season and then there was a finger and then obviously those things Got made even worse in the postseason. So It's I would say I Want to find out more about this. I'd like to get a clean bill of health on on Roman Anthony before I Buy back in. I'm sure it's still gonna be a pretty big cost on him A oldest Chapman pass is physical which was the final hurdle needed for his $13 million player option to vest for 2027 so he'll be back with the red socks Likely as their closer and Mickey gasper is expected to be sideline four to six months after undergoing biceps surgery We did get some mariners updates as well Cal Raleigh underwent to brideman surgery on his AC joint in his left shoulder

15:42He is expected to be fully recovered by the start of spring training So I think that in conjunction with the oblique injury very easily could have explained this massive drop off For Cal Raleigh this past season And I think maybe the same could be said for Josh Nailer who underwent surgery to repair the Triangular Fibro cartilage in his right wrist whatever that is He first heard his wrist in early august And then he went home or listen as final 41 games after the injury Nailer also expected to be ready for spring training Josh Nailer was also bad before his final 41 games So I don't know that I buy that as much but the Cal Raleigh things got I mean you have shoulder surgery and you had no bleak Feels like pretty good excuses for a bad season Yeah It could be I mean Nailer especially he had apparently been dealing with this since mid-June And at that point it looks like he had about I don't know exact I don't have an exact day for when it started but

16:43Looks like he had about eight home runs Yeah as of June 12th he hit his eighth home run Um, so that was With the season what about 40% over And then afterward he hit just two home runs the rest of the way. Yeah, that's pretty massive Yeah, I think that That goes a long way to explaining his bad season Cal Raleigh it's it's interesting He actually how did he search to the finish line and there was a mechanical adjustment tied to that he raised his hands to To get to elevated fastballs better and it seemed to work um if you Go on to CVSports.com check out my latest article published. It's it's what you missed What you missed after football started Where I break down It'll basically August and September of the season highlight the the biggest um biggest developments across the league So that you can just you know whether or not whether or not you tuned out when football started you can just

17:47Poor over everything that happened a good little recap for you. It's long But it's not as long as it would have been obviously if you were paying attention to the day to day in July and August And I think it's worth doing because it's quake bullet point form You're gonna get a lot of facts in there including just how good Cal Raleigh was at the end of last season I think it was like Again, my browser is frozen so I can't tell you but it was like an OPS over a thousand over the last three weeks or something like that Mm-hmm Moving past the Mariners Byron Bucks didn't had these stitches removed from his surgically repaired right hip last week And has begun the rehab process He is expected to be ready for the start of spring training as well Spencer steer underwent successful surgery on his right wrist He suffered a partial tear tear of the tendon sheath in his wrist in late July He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training I believe Jake burger had a similar surgery last off season And he was back in time for spring training and actually had a Quietly solid season in like a Jake burger way So perhaps that could be some good news there for Spencer steer

18:50Here you go Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh final 32 games so a lot longer than three weeks 256 batting average 10 homers 935 OPS Yeah, that's that's pretty Cal Raleigh like Even before even before this surgery news on the shoulder Yep, and the Arizona fall league is up and running some big names that are competing right now in the AFL We have Sebastian Walcott of the Rangers at Wardo Cantaro of the Dodgers Caleb Bonnermer of the White Sox Argin Nemala of the angels who actually saw a homeward here on Monday night Aiden Miller of the Phillies Zahir Hope of the Tigers dax killby of the Yankees I don't know how to pronounce this guy's name. I know that he is a prospect that is skyrocketing right now But I could not find a clip of a reporter or a broadcaster saying his name anywhere On hi bell on hi bell go mess is that what is that what I would guess? Okay, so on hi bell go mess of the royals He's only 17 years old and he's in the hours on a fall league that is Pretty interesting stuff price reiner of the Tigers Tate Southazine of the

19:54Braves Zayon Rose who was the sixth overall picked by the royals in this year's draft So very interesting selection of players the royals sent out someone they just drafted and another who is only 17 years old Harleen Susanna of the Nationals He actually pitched over the weekend and his first pitch was 103 miles per hour So he is a hard throwing a righty a name to know to meet your croissants of the d-backs typeede of the Cardinals Boston Smith of the Mariners somebody I know you like Scott Nathan fluelling of the rays Jet Williams and braille and pain from the Brewers and ike Irish from the Orioles Last name here well-being that friend Siska of the Guardians who Has kind of fallen off a little bit as a prospect, but in his first game when five or five with a sock and a shoe So tonight's little start there to the Arizona fall league and chris and i will be out there in early November As part of first pitch Arizona and uh really hope I get to see daxe kill me that that's the one I want to check you on But um, yeah, I'm sure we'll see a bunch of prospects while we're out there all right scout Let's get into some of the lessons learned from this past season and

20:59How it might be if at all shaping any of your strategy for next season So why don't you kick us off here a lesson you learn this past season Okay, I don't know how many of us supposed to come up with um, I would say three, but you know, we could just Go as far as an hour will take us. Yeah Kristen it Join us for this one So that gives us a little more time Uh, okay, so I'm going to say my first lesson learned here is uh Could phrase it a few different ways discount over opinions Or you're not going to outsmart anyone anymore or don't look a gift horse in the mouth ever Or take what's given to you uh, that's that's the general idea here and I've talked about it before Uh, the other one I've talked about is uh, no intentional player strategy. That's kind of a riff on heathcomings No intentional position strategy Which is Short end is nips nips of course. Yeah, um, so

22:05I kind of the my favorite way to phrase it is you're not going to outsmart anyone anymore Though that's probably the least revealing way to phrase it. It's it's the idea that Our ability to assess players to assess how good they are has kind of flattened it's The data for evaluating players has come so far and Says as much as I feel like it can That it's hard to get an edge that way anymore A particularly when you're if you're playing against people who Really dig into the data who really study this stuff You're all going to kind of arrive at the same place on players. There's some room for disagreements It's usually Around things that It's nor it's nor it's more like hunchy stuff like how much I think this guy's going to play It's not it's not purely how good it how talented is this player

23:05Everybody's kind of in agreement on everybody Not literally, but for the most part and so how do you get an edge that way it more often than not I have found that if you disagree with the consensus on that You're going to get burnt you can't outsmart the consensus So I think the best way to get an edge now is to just Instead of targeting your guys instead of saying okay, I'm going to take Kyle Bradish and round four because I think he's that good You take whoever happens to slide because somebody else is going to jump in and grab some of their favorites It always happens every draft is not exactly the same And there will be a chain reaction that causes someone else to fall because of that And that's the best way to gain an edge is to just Always be willing to take the player who slides And of course the most obvious example from that this year is is p crore Armstrong. I was not

24:09His biggest fan by any stretch and yet he ended up being my most draft to player Because it happened so many times in drafts that he would just he would just Like pretty much the first half of round three and every draft I did if I was if I was drafting there he was up Nobody ever reached to take him earlier A lot of times he would slide Again toward the middle around three instead of going early And so I just kept taking him And it it went really well But it's hard to come up with a specific player example because it's not really that kind of advice It's Anyone whoever it happens. It's not going to be the same guy every draft right yeah so That's that's something I've talked about a little Both heading into this year and I think heading into last year too But I think I'm going to lean more into it ever next year because

25:09For the most part looking back at all my drafts whenever I reached for one of my guys Instead of just accepting appropriate value or the discount that was available there It didn't go well and when I did accept the discount it did So My follow up is how far do you take it though because Are you willing to draft a player like you you vehemently don't like When you dug into the numbers you were legitimately worried about that player You said something similar to that about p-crombs rung But I don't think that you were completely against drafting him You just didn't I did not you had some opinions you had some worries But how far do you take it like If there's a player you legit do not want at all and he's like whatever the coverboy for your busts article Are you still willing to take even that player if he falls like a round pass ADP or something like that like how far do you Take that strategy That's a good question. I'm not sure I have a good answer for yet

26:10I would say my general answer is I am less invested in who I think is a bust Then who is available to me in a value? So I will come up with a bust article I have to I have to and I will do my best to highlight players that I think are overvalued Uh, well, you know what I'm not even sure that's true that's not That generally Certainly in the last five or six years that hasn't even out been how I've approached the bust article It's been who do I think has bottom out potential not just who do I think is a little overvalued But you know, let's say I think for example James would Oh, wait, you know like How how right did that turn out to be in being in my bust article this past year not not not very right no Yeah, I I don't think I'm going to be that invested. I I know I drafted a lot of players on my bust list from this year And for the most part those bust calls turned out to be bust themselves. So

27:10You just end up leaving too much value on the table now It gets tricky because again Since everybody It kind of lands in the same place on every player How do you even identify what a bust is this kind of gets to the p-craw-arms strong example because How did he consistently fall to me? It's because a lot of other people had him as a bust Right, and I I don't think I actually included him in my bust article just because I already knew I was From drafts up to that point that I was going to end up having a decent amount of p-craw-arms strong, and I just didn't want to have to Square that circle throughout draft season but when you're trying to I don't know the whole concept of a bust right now. I would say okay. Let me let me just sum it up with this

28:11I think in the early rounds Of course, I am going to To Be a little more wary of certain players, but if the value is obvious, I'm just going to go for it In the later rounds, I'll probably be more particular about players. I target because there's less consensus there anyway right and It'll be different, but really with the early rounds I'm probably just going to accept whatever value comes to me and let the team kind of build itself that way. Yeah I think it says more about just the state of Fantasy in general and I don't think this is just particular to baseball. I think Really football baseball basketball. It's like People are so smart now and to your point It's a lot of people are landing on the same conclusions on players and so it's where do you find that edge? I struggle with something like this because Every year I come on this exact podcast lessons learned and I need to remind myself and everybody To get your guys because to me I get more frustrated throughout the course of a season when there's a player

29:15I really like or like that is going off and he's not on my teams Then if I draft players that Fell to me that I didn't necessarily want and I just drafted them because they were good value and it turns out They're bad, right? Like I get more frustrated by the former. Just not having those guys on my team You know, I had south steward on a few teams. I had canceled it on a few teams I had chase burns on a few teams, but like these were guys that I really liked and I just Get more frustrated at myself for not having them on like every team But isn't that kind of an emotional Aren't you using your emotions to drive you in that case like I can relate because that that was Something I often felt too and it It's obviously a different experience if you only have a fantasy team or two every year and you It's hard not to get emotional in that case then when you're like us and you have 12 15 fantasy teams and like

30:16Up guy who's somebody who's on your team and this league is on somebody else's team and another league and then so how how heavily can you root for anybody in that case, you know Um, so I get it. I get that there is an emotional draw there. That's that's hard to resist But I know that In the days when I would get more emotional about that it was because I was often writer than everybody else I was more right about the players I singled out as this guy's going to be a breakout This guy's going to have a huge season And so if I didn't get it it was like well my My pick was someone else was being rewarded for that and and that was where it hurt But that doesn't happen nearly as often anymore. So I can kind of let the emotional part of it go There's no better feeling emotionally than than actually winning Yeah Now I totally I totally get that point too and I can admit that I I know that I definitely

31:21And the most Emotional one here on the podcast just in terms of like on a night-to-night basis, you know, I kind of overreacted times and Um, I let things like that affect me and it does kind of get to me at times, but It's it's It's an interesting strategy and something you bring up for next season and that'll bring me to One of my lessons learned because I think it kind of ties in together pretty well here it and Don't be afraid to try something new. So I won and a labor this year Even though I didn't have a set plan of players that I wanted in the auction And that is the first time I have ever showed up to an auction where I didn't have a Plan a plan b plan c at every position. I normally go into every auction With that mindset and I had all the auction values, you know fan crafts auction calculator plug in all the settings and L only leagues like I knew how much players were worth It did help that I got to see the al labor auction the day before so I kind of had an idea in my mind of like okay

32:25These players are comparable. Let's see how much they go for tomorrow But that's the only way that I wound up with both Ellie Dela Cruz and Fernando Tati's junior on that team Scott something I would have never done in previous years in an only league To get two first round caliber bats. I would never do that. I usually always you know spread the wealth But they went for way cheaper than they should. I think I got Tati's for like 31 and Ellie for 33 And typically these are players that are like pushing $40 even in an Anna only league Yeah, I just kind of gobbled up the value wherever I could and then you know, I had some other lower and Ideas of players that I wanted like if I need steals go after nnessim new Nia's for cheap who I wound up getting on that team Um, but then just other guys that I was just kind of neutral on where look if the price was right I think I got Brian Reynolds and he was fine. He had like a Brian Reynolds type year, but That strategy of just like Kind of what you're saying no intentional player strategy in the auction Just kind of grab the values where you can that is something that was very uncomfortable for me and even after the auction ended

33:30I hated my team. I was like, oh my god. I hated the way that turned out and then one the league so Yeah, maybe try something new Yeah, at the point about the auction the more specific point you're making is um Something I've tried to change the past couple years too again because I realized what used to work really well for me Isn't working as well and I it's kind of along the same lines of what I was saying is It the players The players you are specifically targeting is also what a lot of other people are specifically targeting because for the same reasons You probably decided to specifically target them and so if you go in with that narrow of a focus. Yes, it helps You say state disciplined in a certain respect But if if multiple people have gone into that auction targeting that specific player There it's gonna be hard for all of them to stay that disciplined, you know, yeah

34:31Um, and then on the broader point if you not being afraid to try something new I kind of did the same thing in the podcast league The original podcast league that had to had points one Where I don't know if you remember but two of my first three picks were starting pictures Now one was crochet one was sale I'm not saying that's why I had a good season in that league But I went to the semi-finals so clearly it didn't prevent me from having a good season and uh, no you made it to the finals in that leagues got No, not uh had to have points one. Yeah, you lost in the finals. Yeah, even better I made it to the finals in that at points league despite uh Going against my usual head to head points Strategy, you know, that's the more forgiving format for starting pictures So I like to load up on hitters the hitters who really excel in that format in the early rounds Just everyone else was doing it. So I had to I kind of took what everyone else gave me which was the starting pictures And it's still it's still turned out okay. Yeah, I think in a way it's kind of um a humbling experience, right?

35:33Like what we're talking about is that you know for years we we had something that Worked or we thought worked and you know, you want to be right about players and we're still gonna have players I don't want people to listen to this specific episode and say oh wow like these guys are just you know We're they're not gonna give opinions on players anymore. We're still gonna have opinions and we're gonna tell you which players we like Don't like who's overvalued who's undervalued things like that. I think Perhaps this specific lesson learned in strategy is more so for like industry or expert type leagues But I mean in home leagues people could know a lot as well and so I think it can be transferable But um, yeah, I don't know your things I don't want people to get the wrong idea like we're still gonna have tons of opinions on players and things like that But um, yeah, just basically Gobbling up the value where you can and and don't be afraid afraid to try something different So a couple early lessons there. Let's take our good If I could kind of tailor since I was himming and hauling around your question of uh, what happens How much are you going to avoid your busts in the early rounds to a certain degree that's baked into my rankings

36:39I don't go overboard with it But you know, I downgrade players. I don't like a little bit So it is going to be kind of a marriage between how much is this guy sliding in ADP versus how much is this guy sliding in my rankings and that will help keep me honest in terms of um Of of not overvaluing a bust pick of mine, but again the the broad General takeaway is I'm going to be less tied to my specific but the bust picks than just How clear of a value as this guy in the draft all right? Let's take our final break when we return We have more lessons learned from this past season right after this Welcome back fantasy baseball today. We're going through some lessons learned how it might shape our strategy for next season And it's got to throw it back over to you you you started your first lesson was about your nips. What's your second lesson? I have a lot to say about this one Saves are still one of the worst uses of draft capital I feel like there's been a lot of pushback to this lately and

37:44We'll get into wine a minute but It is undoubtedly true just think through the logic of it all relief pitchers are extremely volatile Because it's small samples They have small arsenals where it wouldn't take much for the things to go wrong for them Short track record usually because they're so volatile they they fizzle out quickly And so going into the year you know unless it's a long established dominant closer and even sometimes then you don't really know What's going to happen with them? The only relief pitchers in that only relief pitchers in the closer role can contribute and that role itself is volatile Not just the how the pitchers perform but how likely they are to stick in that role if they lose that they basically lose all of their value Winner relief pitcher pitcher flops and isn't giving you saves these next to useless When a new one enters the role He can be just as good as some of the best and we there were tons of examples of that this year

38:45Louis Varlin Brian Baker Mason Montgomery in the second half Jacob Latz um I think i'm missing a couple of of big ones like that it it happened so many times that this guy you just plucked off the waiver wires And it was like you invested in an early round reliever Now the reason why i think there's been some pushback to this in recent years is because there's a consumer creator mismatch right now in the fantasy baseball space where most of the people who are Creating the content who are part of the big fantasy discussions who are in podcast on podcasts like this one They tend to play in a bunch of high stakes leagues How many is a bunch too many however many it is it's too many and so what that encourages is if If a team goes south They are and there there's a lot of motivation there for them to just wash their hands of it

39:48And then might still go through the motions with it, but it doesn't hurt If if a team flops it's just One of many entries they have and as long as a couple of those entries pan out they're fine That's that's what the average creator the perspective they're approaching it from the average consumer is approaching it from the perspective of I play in a couple leagues one maybe two with people I know And this is my This is how i'm invested in fantasy baseball this season If if a team gets buried in the standings It's gonna be miserable for me all year like i need to have something to play for And so you can't approach it with this You can't quite approach it with this Is Second place is the first loser mentality where being in first is all that matters like you want to be competitive so that the season is fun for you right

40:50So you know if the people who are playing in the high stakes leagues they're like I just want to not have to worry about closers grab the saves I need early And if that guy happens to bust well, I guess that team's just a bust But I don't think the average user needs to approach it that way and usually the average user And just isn't playing in leagues so deep anyway so that that helps create more turn on the waiver wire for the the upcoming closers And I think what also lends itself to this point is that There are so many different fantasy baseball league types and each of them feels very different in terms of how you attack Relevers and closers in those formats right so in a Typical roto league 12 team roto league. I don't think you'll see these astronomical prices on relievers where you know you have fab and things like that But a lot of the draft boards and the content we hear and see in the winter months are like draft and hold leagues Where there is no waiver wire and you have no choice but to

41:54If you don't get your closers in the draft then that's then you're not getting saved Like that is your only way that you're gonna do that so I do think there is a little bit of a disconnect in And again, this is very niche for like whatever people who are paying attention to draft boards and NFBC ADP in the winter months You're gonna see relievers go really high in those formats and that's because a lot of those leagues are You know draft and hold where you don't have a waiver wire to pick them up But then things just change very differently from like a home roto league a home head Ted categories league with daily lineups where You know your mileage may vary on how many relievers you want on your team How many are relievers you can actually use on your team? How many closures versus like Stoppers do you want on your team where you have guys that are just giving you ratios and then in head to had points It's a whole different thing because you're a lot of people are using sparps as their relievers and closures get devalued Like crazy in that format so it's To that point Scott, I think it even accentuates it even more because there are just so many different formats and so many different ways to play

42:55And it feels like relievers are valued very different In all the different formats Yeah, they are and and the deeper it is the bigger the risky take by going cheap on it in the draft Yeah And I'm never saying you should ignore it in the draft I mean and head to head points you can kind of ignore it But in anything else I'm not saying you should ignore it I'm just saying it's not something you should put a lot of draft capital and because It's very likely to be wasted draft capital on the front end and be It's the position where you can most likely make up for going cheap Doesn't mean it's always going to happen right but It's the it's your best chance of if you're going to go cheap anywhere and make up for it by backfilling off the waiver wire It's it relief pitcher So you know obviously I'm not I'm not saying that the people who play in a bunch of high stakes leagues They don't have a good advice to offer But you just have to remember when you're listening to it unless you're also playing that way Their risk reward calculus is a little bit skewed Yeah, and I don't want this to come off as any kind of like sour grapes for like there's a high stakes player listening to this because

43:59I think using high stakes ADP just in general is like a really good starting point for like people diving back into fantasy baseball and January or February Just looking at high stakes ADP to get an idea of where players are going I think generally is a good idea and maybe not exactly just like the number next to a reliever and what draft pick They're going But the order that the relievers are being drafted and I think that almost matters more than where they're being drafted Yeah in those specific drafts looking at I just you know put this together right now But the top 10 closures on the fan graphs player rater this year Here's where they finished and here's where their ADP was preseason So Mason Miller was the RP1 his ADP was 28 Kate Smith RP2 his ADP was 40 Jacob Latz was the RP3 his ADP was 730 Louis Varlin RP4 he was undrafted he did not have an ADP Brian Baker was the RP5 he was undrafted He did not have an ADP great Taylor was the RP6 his ADP was outside the top 500 Mason Montgomery RP7 ADP 748 David Bettinar was RP8 64 ADP Josh Hader RP9

45:07124 ADP you want to run RP10 41.8 so Very wide range of where players were either drafted or picked up It's basically like a 50% hit rate on the top 10 closures this past season and I don't do Many things right in fantasy, but the one thing I feel like I've done pretty well in recent years in in roto leagues in particular Is just the way that I've handled saves. I mean I'm typically the never never the first person to draft a closer. I usually get one of the Top ish tier closures like one of the top eight to 10 names And then I try to get someone that I feel pretty good about in like the 11 to 20 range It's very rudimentary But it it's actually worked pretty well like I typically and I don't really fall behind in saves and like any of the leagues That I play in there will always be some outliers, but it typically works pretty well It's like get someone in like the 7 to 10 range and ADP Someone in like the 20 11 to 20 range and then just take some dart throws late or play the waiver wire for your third reliever and

46:12Usually it turns out pretty well I think it deeply exists especially that's the approach I like most yeah My next lesson here Scott is just and you guys spoke on this last week I think reshaping my pitching strategy and get back to focusing on skills for pictures It's another one that this kind of feels so obvious, but I think for whatever reason I I've kind of slipped I've kind of Got away from this somewhere along the way And don't limit the upside shots that you take at starting pitcher So I looked through back through all my teams earlier today and I just had too many teams with framber Valdez and Tanner Bobby and and Merrill Kelly right it's this kind of Accumulator types where yeah, I know Valdez has done it for years, but He's a pitcher where his preseason ADP was sp20 He's not really a pitcher that's a big win, but it could have always wound up being a A big loss for Valdez just because he put so many balls in play and you know

47:13There was a change of scenery and just the way that you know, he's dealt with Kind of mental lapses pitching on the mountain just thinking about it now I just don't really see how that pick was ever going to be a big win for framber Valdez is like The sp20 and ADP I looked where he finished last year was like sp 38 or something like that So it's we didn't really get that big of a discount either I also like names like chase burns like canch litlar Treyis savage bubble Chandler we all like those guys those were like the obvious breakout candidate's coming in But I often said that I only wanted one of them on my teams to minimize risk And I don't think that's the right way to approach it and I know again you kind of mentioned this last week, but I think taking more shots on those potential For impact per inning per start basis type pictures is what we what I need to get back to and really focusing on skills And just taking more shots on those guys rather than the Kind of veteran inning eater accumulator types that like

48:14Might pay off, but Why why wouldn't you just rather chew for much more upside and like the mid-slay round? So I gotta get back to that Yeah There may be a little revisionist history there with framber Valdez in particular because he seemed like a good value Going into last year we You mentioned he wasn't amazing in 2025 finish 38th I guess by the roto radar I'm presuming that was mostly whip in the RA because he's still at 13 wins and 187 strikeouts But but the previous couple years we had seen him as a top 12 type so to get him around 20 it seemed like a good discount But the broad point I think is is something I I've come around to too Uh, and I tried to implement it I think I implemented it well this year where Not going as far as Nick Pollock's stance of Just not caring about durability at starting pitcher because it's uh

49:16It's a hopeless Sort of calculation. I don't go all the way there, but I go most of the way there where it's Predicting how many innings a pitcher is gonna throw and a given year is Not something you're going to do very well. So you might as well shoot for as much upside as you can Particularly if you tend to go cheap at starting pitcher like I do you have to make up for Uh Some of your lack of investment there by taking bigger swings and taking more swings too that that's part of it because you know Some of those swings are going to miss and that's the harder part to pull off particularly in deeper leagues because Uh, so many teams are picking that That group of pitchers gonna run out faster you can't grab as many as you want but in a 12 team context you can grab an awful lot of Mid-round upside types and that's that's usually where I like to live. Yeah. I think a second part of this too

50:18It's to not worry so much about roll, but again Focusing on the skills because we had questions for the roles of each of these starting pitchers Coming into the season and it took a while for them to to get a spot in the rotation But we all knew that they had upside parker messic Logan Henderson Peyton Toli And maybe it's you know I'm not saying you have to draft and hold on to them But like if you get any inclination at like they're gonna be in the rotation or there's a chance for them to be in the rotation Like you have to pound and you have to be ready to go But these those are three names in particular. I think they all finish as you know top 20 starting pitchers this year And we had questions about the role coming into the season But we knew that they were talented pitchers. So it's just really want to hammer that point home and Focus on those pitchers more in the mid to late rounds of the draft and I will at this point mentioned Chris's Chris wanted to be on today, but he was feeling under the weather He did send his biggest lesson Stop being afraid of innings limits for pitchers which again kind of overlaps with everything that we're talking about right now

51:21And just really focusing on like per inning per start Impact and getting back to that All right, Scott back over to you. No, they're lesson. All right Your draft doesn't have to and probably won't define your team This is especially true and head-to-head Especially true in any league that that's on the shallower end in terms of how many players were drafted Which then makes for a more robust waiver wire. I went back and looked at both of my Podcast league teams which were head-to-head There's a 12-teamer the one I was referring to earlier where I took pitchers with two in my first three picks But there's also a 16-teamer so small lineups, but fairly largely I went back and look at my drafts in both of those I made it to the semi-finals in the 12-teamer Art the finals in the 12-teamer and the semi-finals in the 16-teamer so the result was good It was like six of my picks panned out in the 12-teamer and seven of them in the 16-teamer

52:23And the rest of the roster was just assembled on the waiver wire over the course of the year so like that's I think I think people get in the mindset of oh, I have to I have to really kill it in the draft and You know they start comparing how every team drafted how every team's draft turned out and get really Up or down about how their season's gonna go based on that but It's just a starting point. It really is and it's a whole season worth of putting this roster together Again, that's especially true in the shallower things, but I looked at some of my 15-teamers too At Tau Wars we talked about Tau Wars how bad some of my earliest picks are that's a 15-teamer that I won the league My first four picks were all pretty bad or Three of the first six of the first ten were pretty bad But early in early on in the season I picked up TJ rum field off waivers and an OBP league

53:28I picked up Liam Hicks off waivers to be my second catcher I picked up Jacob Lats off waivers. He obviously turned out this was a league where I really got burned on saves I drafted Josh Hader in Carlos Estevez and that was it Hader turned out fine in the long run, but I wasn't getting saved early. I picked up Lats. That was huge. Yeah, I picked up I those were probably the three picks pickups, but I but I know there were some others AJ Ewing There were some others that helped me along the way And and I wouldn't have longed the league without him TJ FBI I finished second in that 15-teamer My pitching I ran away with all the pitching categories. Well a lot of that was Tau's Bradley I picked up Peyton toly off the waiver wire I picked up Carlos Rodon eventually it took a while to pay off, but it did in the end Ian Seymour, you know like it's it's it's a never-ending process and Like you're not going to sink or swim with your draft necessarily I think this one also depends on What type of player you are and knowing yourself as a player because I feel like if Chris were here and he has talked about this that

54:33His biggest struggle as a player is probably in season management and you know free agency and fab and things like that So I think this particular lesson just depends on you as a player as well like I think you can miss on things in the draft as long as you are Diligent and you know putting in the work and things like that on the waiver wire and things like like just Knowing yourself as a manager. So I think that's kind of a second part to build off of that But you're right. I mean I I've gone to you know I mentioned first pitch Arizona last year. I went and somebody who won I think it was Mike Megger who we had on in the It last off season to help talk about auction strategy and he won the auction overall and I think like His highest price player was like you're on average who barely played last year and he won the overall right? So like no way like you can have a miss a big miss in the draft and still perform really well If you can gain excess value in other places I think you wound up with like you know Cal Raleigh in a 60 home run season. So obviously

55:35You know that helps a lot of it But yeah, you you can miss on some pigs. Obviously you need some big wins the way that you got with like p. Koran shrong But yeah, I do think that is a fair point there my next lesson is getting back to minimizing risk early So again, I looked through all my teams earlier today and I noticed that I had one or both of Kyle Tucker Gunner Henderson and Garrick crochet on Three different teams. I also had a lot of Michael Garcia I had a lot of Cole Reagan's I had those guys on at least three different teams and some of those there There's a lot of overlap with those players as well and I you tell me Scott if maybe this is revisionist history again Obviously, we all liked Kyle Tucker coming in like specifically on this podcast. We were higher than the consensus on Tucker But I think that there were risks there that we just kind of ignored right and I know Look first year mech first year in the Of a mega deal in a new city Like there are many times where that doesn't work out for a specific player

56:36He also had you know injury problems in the past So perhaps those things have just kind of added up for someone like Kyle Tucker I'm not saying he was a massive risk, but there were some risk there that perhaps we we just looked the other way Gunner I was still very in on this year I basically just took his injury excuse from 2025 and I was like all right He's gonna bounce back to 2024 form and that was never a guarantee Part of this is also just like eliminating assumption with early round picks and just focusing on players who have done it year over year who have had health year over year And that's like Garrick crochet was one of my most drafted pictures And it was just because he was usually the one that lasted the longest of the big three And he was the one that went cheapest of the big three in auctions And so I was open to drafting one of those big three starting pictures coming in And crochet when you think about it logically the big innings jumps year over year the past couple of years like I think that was a pretty obvious risk to Garcia I liked this underlying skill set. He was not very proven at all Cole Reagan's is someone that I was openly worried about

57:38But I was just like so enamored by the skills. I had him as like an sp2 and multiple leagues, but Mm-hmm what you were just saying skydaz you can miss on some of your picks early on You can't miss on like you know Your your first three picks basically or like four of your first six or something like that And when I looked back at the teams that did really poorly it was like I think I just took too much unnecessary risk early on in drafts Yeah, I don't like taking risk early either But hindsight is 2020 and Like who didn't get burned by the first trump picked this year the person who took Bobby Whitt They were a little underwhelmed, I guess, but they didn't get burned. Okay, that's one You know obviously Paul skeens was a bust not as bad as crochet crochet got hurt But it wasn't pretty Terrick scubul missed a lot of time Ronald Akunia wasn't very good Yeah, we talked we talked about it. We talked a lot about this. I mean perhaps it's something that's just unique to this season

58:40But it was yeah looking back I think You can you can look at all of those guys and say okay. I should have been more careful with Jose Ramirez's age or Akunia having the the two knee surgeries, but Yeah, I don't know I Sure like Kyle Tucker the people who were worried about the second half injury with the cubs ultimately were proven right But I don't know that I would assess it any differently next time personally. I mean you're free too I don't think that was the biggest red flag necessarily among the first rounders. Yeah That that first year of a mega deal in a new city I know it's like kind of cliche, but a lot of times it really does not work out very well You look at you know Kyle Tucker and Boba shed, but even big your examples is like Francisco indoors first season with the mess. I know that was a trade, but then he signed the extension and Uh, like there was Bryce Harper's first year was not very good trade turners first year was not very good

59:40So that seems like one that that actually happens more often than not is like that mega contract first year in a new city type thing Um, which is kind of why I want to give Kyle Tucker a pass again obviously not in round one, but in round six Sure. Well, we'll see where that discount pops out, but uh, yeah, I just really want to focus next year early rounds Guys have yeah who have done it multiple years over who have had multiple healthy years over and over again So um, and then you know, you could take more risks as you get further into the draft It's a late round like I have no problem taking risk there But just kind of minimizing that risk early on in drafts I have a couple of honorable mentions here sky I don't know if you do, but if you want we could just kind of like rapid fire just rattles your Yeah, so some of mine are related to ones. I've already said don't be afraid to spend early This is a fab Specifically for leagues that use fab, which I think is the minority, but it's it's a big enough minority Don't be afraid to spend early a lot of those guys that I picked up off waiver wires

1:00:40Of the waiver wire early on I wasn't totally sold on But I knew that Obviously early in the years when everybody's going to be spending the most and when they have the most the longest span of time to make an impact to my team And that in the second half of the year The the fab bids were going to be much much lower because of all the money everybody spent So you know, I didn't go crazy spend in 300 dollars on a player. I didn't feel confident in but I tried to spend enough to win them If I thought I had a spot for them and a use for them You know jake of lats especially like I couldn't I couldn't imagine him holding on to the closer role all year Much less than being that good in it, but I just went for it because I needed the saves And I spent the fab dollars it took and it worked out really well. I that's that's your best chance of That's where you're going to get the most wins off the waiver wires early in the season. Yeah, I actually had

1:01:44A little bit of the opposite one that I wrote down here was that I spent way too much fab early on the season I just don't have enough in the second half And that could just come back to like player evaluation and and We talk about this a lot, but and I'm not making excuses But Sundays are really tough for us between like building the rundown and recapping a whole weekends worth of games And looking through all the games and putting our fab bids in like that's something that I struggle with so like I can put more time into that like earlier in the weekend things But I just noticed perhaps I was just bidding on the wrong players and I was just aggressive early on But I just noticed the second half of the season. I did not have like any money For those prospects that we're getting called up and in like August and beyond But here's the thanks frustrating. I didn't either Yeah, and I guess it was frustrating But how much did you really loot like how much of an impact were they actually able to make versus what the TJ rumfields did early on? Yeah, I always comes back to which players you actually won like I'm sure Yeah, if I look back on the teams where I spent a lot of fab it's like

1:02:46I probably just didn't get good players, you know like I maybe I just spent on the wrong guys And that's like a me thing that's something that I did wrong But I did pick up like I was pretty aggressive and The first or second week of the season. I think I picked up Brian Baker and Towers And obviously like something like that turned out amazing Yeah, I actually wound up trading him for Riley Creen just because I needed outfield helps so bad That trade probably happened and I don't know mid-may or something I was a little bit weary about like oh is this Tampa guy gonna hold onto the closer role year He obviously did and he turned out to have an amazing season And I need a lot of offensive help. I guess that can get into My next lesson here is just to have patience because At like the midpoint of the season in NL labor I was shopping Fernando Tati's junior to other teams for like just like two lower level assets I think I offered at some point for like Ian Happen Dylan Lyle right just to get guys and an only league that are playing every day And should be solid But if I did that I probably wouldn't have won the lead so it's like

1:03:49Have patience, you know, and that goes back to me as a player like I do kind of get emotional about things Something else and like Like maybe anybody would have made the same mistake, but I dropped Jake McCarthy in Towers which is a 15 team wrote a league with five outfielder spots I dropped them in I think mid or late April just because like the playing time was weird and the Rockies Had a bunch of outfielders and stuff But he turned out to be one of the biggest league winners in fantasy this season. So Patience patience is something that I would like to remind people of for next season I was laughing because one of the next one I have was kind of opposite of that. Okay. I think you're More right than this is, but I I did Recognize this year that there does come a point where it's okay to drop a struggling stud When is that point? Well, first of all, I think it's more likely to come up in a head-to-head league with fewer lineup spots to fill

1:04:51But basically if you get to a point where you're happy enough with your replacement, I was thinking specifically Cal Raleigh I drafted it and I drafted him in too many leagues unfortunately And it would have been easy to just stick with him in my catcher spot and just hope he turned it around But catcher being as deep as it is I'd pick up a Liam Hicks and one league I'd pick up a You know, I'd be at Gabriel Marrano or something I got to a point where it's like okay Cal Raleigh's just taken up a spot on my bench Let him go he did finish strong as I pointed out early in the show, but like I didn't really miss him You know, it wasn't it wasn't like this big disaster and it was Second half of the year by the time I did this I held on a long time, but I'm sure people who had Vladimir Guerrero First base being as deep as it is they eventually eventually Vladimir Guerrero became just deadweight for them again I'm talking shallower leagues. I don't think in the 15 team road o leagues you're talking about

1:05:53I'd never get to a point where I'm dropping Raleigh or Raleigh or Guerrero, but And I still think it's a rare thing that you should do with the player that high end, but it's not It's not unthinkable as long as As long as you're really satisfied with the player you have to replace them. Yeah knowing when to do it is just the hardest I have a story too about dropping Jack Caglione in the 16 team for the people league I dropped him he had a bad April and May not as big of an investment as a Raleigh or Guerrero, but Still somebody I drafted to be one of my three outfielders into 16 team league I could have really used his power production the rest of the way. Yeah, I think this specific talking point patience is more for those Sleeper breakout types and I get like you know if you're bordering out a month or two where you're not getting anything from these guys but Reminding yourself that there was a reason why you like this player to begin with and perhaps just sticking out a little bit long I know in season it's a little bit tougher when we're like talking about this every day and it's like we're getting questions all the time of

1:06:57Can I drop this player can I drop this player? But You like Jack Caglione for a reason I like Jake McCarthy for reason and Perhaps you just got to stick with that a little bit longer. My next one here is that um I liked and drafted George Kirby in multiple leagues this season But I didn't have a great reason for it. Basically my reason was just that He was going later than previous years and I thought that he was a discount but I found I find that whenever I've done that in years past it it usually doesn't work well for that player Scott like instead of having a concrete reason like a statistical skill-based reason of why I like this player just oh In years past George Kirby was like a third round pick now we're getting him in the six or seventh I'm gonna draft that player like I just noticed usually that doesn't turn out very well for me when I draft like that Well, yeah probably I'd probably agree that it's it's not the best reasoning when it's that early still So George Kirby was still the 65th player drafted on average

1:07:59According to fantasy pros. So it's still an early round pick. Yeah It there have been times I like I remember making the same argument for dance piece wants in a couple years ago We're normally he's like the 100th pick and we're drafted him like 160 now Okay, that laid I think that's reasoning enough If it particularly if you think it was just this Outlier season he had outlier bad season. Yeah, but obviously You're expecting not as many of those picks to pan out you really need your um What is that round six seven picked to to pan out? I didn't do don't need them to based on some of the other things we've said but it it hurts a lot more when he doesn't Right, right Anything else you want to throw out there's got for wrap up just the gen this kind of is overarching Of all my lessons learned don't be too sure of anything I don't know if it's just Our social media culture

1:09:00Everybody's got a hot take everybody's Uh wants to sound the smartest sounding the smartest doesn't win you leagues and I mean pcro arms strong again is the most obvious example of this nobody wanted to have to I feel like a lot of it is nobody wanted to have to defend Taking pcro arms strong. So I I don't want to look stupid. They're gonna point out what a second half numbers were and and I'm gonna have to I'm gonna have to You know, they're gonna think I didn't know that or something It's like no, it's fine. It's okay to take him even even if uh Even if a lot of people are gonna make you feel bad about it I think the most obvious example of this was Josh Hayder who I was talking about and I got him in round 10 of the 15 team league everybody was so sure because he was dealing with a balkie elbow and spring training His season was just gonna go down the toilet And so they let him go for this incredible value and yet still

1:10:03Nobody wanted to be the one to to say they didn't They that they took Josh Hayder at that incredible value because it means they're stupid They don't know that his elbows hurt or something. I don't know. Yeah, I feel like that's a big part of it Esok Paredes was another example of this everyone was oh sure He wasn't gonna get the abats and he went for I think I got him from around 20 and a 15 team league insane Um jacoblats picking him up off the waiver wire when nobody Nobody thought he'd really work as a closer Just because he got a couple saves and Kind of contrary to the point I made about fab not going all in on fab for the $300 pickup Because I was so sure that this latest call up was gonna be the savior And then you blow that many fab dollars on one player. It's still likely not gonna work out like you think it is Yeah, so just don't be too sure You know approach everything with some skepticism on both ends. Don't be too sure about how good a player is

1:11:05Don't be too sure about how bad a player is how hard he's gonna be Whatever if the value is there It's okay, you know like accept the value and it may not work out But you got him out of value if it does work out. It's it's gonna be great Last but all wrap up with here is an oldie but a goodie and I'm pretty sure some people were calling me out for this last year And I should have paid more attention to it. So if you're listening this late into the podcast on Tuesday, October 6th Please remind me again to not overreact to spring training stats Because bad it's like every year. I think it's just like a For me, it's like a mental thing. I'm just like so excited that baseball's back that I like I'm just so excited by what I'm seeing that it's like affecting me, but um I think in particular with the world baseball classic as well Everyone got so excited about like Vinnie pass Quantino and Jack caglione and what like team Italy was doing in the world baseball classic I remember I mean to caglione not live up to it. No, he mostly did

1:12:07So slow star you might have dropped him right? Yeah, right But like Vinnie P very clearly didn't I I wound up with him on a few teams. I still I remember I started to draft Robby right more Just because he looked good in spritran. I'm like What am I doing? Like this is like a veteran guy like maybe he's just like whatever He's off to a good start in spring training. Remember the mat McLean hype the guy who led All of spring training with a 1540 opus That guy that guy didn't have a very good season actually look at the opus leaders in spring training mat McLean max monthsy of the athletics not the Dodgers Dalton varsho luke keeshell who you know took about two months for him to get going Josh Smith of the Rangers Jordan Lawler with the debacks mat Walnar with the twins south stew worked that one worked Troy Johnson with the Rockies Ryan Ritter with the Rockies Cole Young remember we were planning to Cole Young He was like pedestrian this year, but Yeah, even like Jake burger Caleb Durbin Jordan back down the list like match Shaw I got it even have a place to play teach everyone feels pretty good. So like

1:13:08All right, you could pick and choose there was like one two three names there in the top 20 But like for the most part man. It's Spring training. It doesn't matter. Yeah, the Josh Smith thing. I was I was uh In preparation for this show I was looking back through some of my drafts and I noticed Josh Smith on a couple of them I was like what I had to refresh my memory. Oh, yeah, he had that big spring and there was some talk about Yes, I I think this is there was that one year What yeah, it was I think was a 2021 where like so many of the The pictures who emerged in spring training did hit yeah That was like Robbie Ray Carlos were done that year where they were doing something different and then they were both awesome it and I think Trevor Rogers too there were there was there was there was a handful of pictures like that and and so that kind of gave us this false confidence maybe that we've been having to dial back ever since I think it's fine if it's a late flier on a player who is having a splashy spring

1:14:13um, I think that's fine But you you don't want to be again. Don't be too sure of anything. You don't want to be So confident that this is the bounce back year for Matt McLean because he's having a big spring that you make him your starting second baseman when you could have had somebody uh Like and I don't know somebody much more proven than that Aussie all bees or Brandon Lau or whoever yeah Remember his 80p was cut in half like his 80p went from 200 to 100 because of spring training It was crazy stuff for for Matt McLean So I give everyone permission not that you need to my permission anyway But you can yell at me during spring training if I start to in that again We are gonna wrap there for Scott. I am Frank thinks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on apple or Spotify and we will be back again later this week Bye-bye You Caramount podcasts

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