2026-27 NBA Season Win Totals | Eastern Conference Over/Under Predictions

0:00Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all, only out of my doubts. Show button here. Football season is finally back. And prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players, pick more or less on their staff projections and submit your lineup. Then, sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season, all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with the deals to start the football season, giving users a new promo every day during stack September. And now, prize picks is available nationwide. So what are you waiting for?

1:00Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on prize picks. What you want? Download the app today and use code BlueWire to get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. Prize picks, run your game. Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all only at McDonald's. Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all only at McDonald's. What is up, fellow sickos? I am Dan Favalli coming at you with the 1v only, this certified fan tab you as Mr. Grant Hughes. Are you tired of hearing my voice or grants voice? Yes, but yet. Because we're not stopping anytime soon until the season gets here. We got a lot of content to put out.

2:00We're starting our win total predictions, which if you would like to join our annual over-under competition, that will be going live as of following the Thursday podcast, which will be our Western conference over-unders. You can get, we'll send those directly to our Patreon and Discord members, but you could find that eventually be in the link to the podcast in YouTube description. You can win some nice prizes and prove that you know ball, more so than me and Grant. But before we get to our Eastern conference record projections, win totals, excuse me, we'll do full record projections at the end of the Western conference pod too. Grant, how the heck are you doing? I'm relieved. I thought when you led in with the, are you tired of hearing me and Grant talk that we were going to just do a tight 60 minutes of silence where we just sit here and breathe? So that would have been interesting to try, but I'm glad that's not what we're going with. Maybe that's a Patreon pod. Just, do you think that pod would do well? We'll sit here, stare awkwardly at the screen for like, what do you think, like 30, 45 minutes and see how many people tune in? That might work.

3:01I will say we have not really ventured into the performance art category of podcasting yet. And maybe there's an audience there. It's, it's, it can say, probably something to try. We've had multiple requests that we need to bring back the like honorable judge, Grant Hughes when you did your monologue. So that might need to be the, we got to get you a, what do they call? There's the gavel and the role of the president. Have there been requests for which I've had mold. There's at least two people, which is mold was going to say mold. You figure it be two. You figure like that's still half our audience. Right. Got to give him what they want in that case. So in the interest of whole disclosure, we're not going to be doing our full on record projections just yet. Those will come after the Western conference pod, but I did go through mine before we were doing this. My first pass through Grant, I emailed you about this. I had to cut 49 wins from my docket, which I don't know if that's normal. I'm going to try and remember it for when we do it next year.

4:0250 wins seems like a lot, but that's an entire team season. I want to say at some point in the last couple of years, I had a similar number of which it seems impossible because you're putting in these wind totals and you don't feel like you're way off. But then you end up with this huge gap. You've got to close by peeling wins off from somewhere. And whenever that's happened to me, I end up just hating every projection that I have now because they're all like second thoughts. You know, first thought was what led you to a plus 49 or plus 50 win total. So you have to like talk yourself out of what you originally thought. That always makes it tricky. But because I forgot we were supposed to do that this time. It's just going to be over unders. And I will say I did not find this all that easy. It's easier than wind totals because you just it's binary. It's one or the other. Whereas you're not you so you're not pinned down to a specific figure which will come later this week. But I did not have an easy time with this. And we we've talked about this a little bit leading into overunders and just in general.

5:03But this this is the first real exercise where we are seeing the uncertainty attached to the lottery reform because to me, I don't know how you you could speak to this too. Clearly the temptation is to go with almost every over based on where these numbers fall or at least it was for me because compared to years past with some exceptions right there. These awful tankers and we spent a bunch of time thinking who's going to steer into the skin, which we don't anymore. But I my first instinct on almost every one of these was seems low. I think they could beat that number. And I almost went with just I still have way more over than unders. But I think struggling with this based on what you told me about your Eastern conference picks. I think you're going to run into some problems when you go through your record project. I'm going to have to you I might be more you said you're 49 wins too many in the conference or total in the in the league in the league. I was 49 wins too many. I might be 49 for the conference at this rate.

6:04I don't know. We'll see. I'm curious to see if you end up tracking yet. I'd like to know where you end up because I want to know if 40. It's be funny if you have to cut like a hundred and five. That's not possible. It's like, well, I guess the Wizards are going to win two games this year because it's the only place I can pull for. I will say there were a couple teams and I think it was out of spite for them doing things that I just vehemently disagree with. Well, I was y'all smashing this under. That's what you get. Yeah. Well, and for me, in a lot of cases, it was just like, well, somebody's got to lose. And so I just pick and I picked teams that I just don't respect or they did dumb stuff. This is again, this will be a spoiler for the actual records. But like when you're looking at teams that don't have to be afraid of landing in the relegation zone, that's where you start to pull. That's where I started to pull wins from. But you also just, I don't know if we're going to have the 15 or 19 win team this year. Maybe we do. My my overrunners will not won't come up in this conference. But my overrunners say there's going to be one at least. So we'll see. Shout out Kings for Thursday.

7:05Shout out Kings. Would you do we want to start? We'll go off a bed at a. Yeah, we'll begin with the Atlanta Hawks with an overrunner of 43 and a half wins. Where you take us take us through the Hawks or well, so they won 46 last year with the wind differential of a 47 win team. So this is a classic case of 43 and a half. Why are they why are they so much worse than they were last year? I mean, surely like Dyson Daniels won't shoot 18% again. And a Kong Wu's taken steps forward and Jalen Johnson got reminded. He needs a bag in the playoff. So he'll come back better. Alexander Walker's a stud that you know, just go down the list. They got my column back. There's all these. Okay. So why can't they win 44 games to hit this over? And I think you and I both. Came at this similarly and we're just not persuaded by the record inflating that Atlanta did down the stretch last year against bad teams. It's like you can parse the stats however you want.

8:06Like 18 and two, I think over a stretch and there's a bunch of Milwaukee's in Washington's and you name it's in there, even even some Western conference anchors. So I mean, do we want to reveal where we're at right now? Do you want to do? I've already telegraph where I'm going. But do you have anything to add or should I just say my where I'm going? The other variable to for me is that I don't know how much he's going to play right out of the gate. But there's I'm assuming they're pretty invested in Kingston Flemmings and the learning curve for a rookie point guard who I think you can argue when you look at this roster despite there may be being more talent overall. They do still need the idea of Kingston Flemmings as a not even as a score, but it's just like a creator, someone to work off the dribble. And if they play him regular minutes, I'm not saying he's going to submarine their wins hotel, but that combined with the improvement from other teams. Yeah, or the improvement or stasis from other teams in the Eastern conference, I think could end up hurting them. I mean, and just to put a maybe put a bow on it, if you just take that 18

9:10and two against terrible teams and adjust it for, okay, maybe some percentage of them won't be giving games away. And they're, I don't know, 12 and eight, which is still a good run. Like you're under now. So I mean, like that, that was kind of what did it for me is trying to think about what happened. What if that entire quarter of the season isn't just populated by pushovers? Like that, that's going to knock off several wins. And so actually, I actually feel okay about this one having talked through it, but that number is low on its face, right? Coming from a 46 win team that just didn't lose talent. Right. Like that's the idea that this is what I think will run into a lot here is the team could be just as good, maybe a little better and still win fewer games. Just because I do believe one of the results of the lottery reform is there'll just be fewer wins like available. And what I can't square away is there will always be maybe that team that

10:11just doesn't care and maybe wins over put the injuries. That will also be a factor. But just don't you think by default, they'll be fewer of those where it's like there's three or four teams in every or let's say at least like two or three teams in every conference every year. It's done. And then there's going to be teams like post trade deadline who are just done. Maybe let's even look at that number. If you set the over under on three and a half teams that you're not worried about playing after the trade deadline truly, I might in the east, specifically, I might take them. I take the under. Yeah. I think we probably should have talked. It occurs to me now, but let's talk about it. But maybe this would have made more sense as a preamble. So what we should assume odds makers believe is that lottery reform is going to clump teams in the 40s and 30s more densely than it used to. There are going to be fewer teams with wind totals in the 20s. Certainly the teams fewer teams with wind totals in the 50s, let alone the 60s. Are we sure that's right? Because the basis of that belief that things will be more clustered towards the

11:15middle is that while you take tanking out and that just means you have more competitive games down the stretch of the season. Therefore, the wins get more evenly distributed. What if like what if injuries, which he may be becoming an increasing issue with teams not shutting guys down? Like they get shut down. Like what if injuries get us right back to the same wind spread that we've always had? And this is a huge overreaction by odds makers that don't like us, don't actually know what the impact of lottery reform will be. I do, I do think there's a chance that this narrower spread of victory totals and then and the closer clumping of all these overunders is actually just a mistake. Do you think that's a possibility? This is just something I've been like kicking around. It's kind of a Zag, you know, just for for the hell of it. But I also could be convinced. Yeah, I wait. I'm laughing in a chat regularly or so odd scene, Grant and Dan switching spots did someone get demoted or get punished for a bad take?

12:17Well, I just issued a one that could be called a bad take. So we'll see if we flip flop here. I really don't know what to think. But you're the one after looking at the overunders, it is clear that lottery reform is factoring in to those projections. And I wonder if by seeing those now I did, I told you I did my wind projections, then looked at I've seen like I've obviously had we've been talking with guests who are making their predictions for specific wins. But so I've seen them like floating around the ether, but I wasn't looking at them while I was doing wind projections to try and not influence. But it was very clear even as I was going through. I don't have a 60 win team in a Eastern conference this year. I just don't have that mean either. No, but we had two in the West last year in the Spurs and the Thunder. And I think you could talk yourself into saying, there's how it would be a 60 win team in the West if you really wanted to. Yeah, or it looks a lot like it did before and pistons win 60 again or somebody, you know, I just I think you lean one way or the other. I think logically what the odds maker seem to believe makes sense,

13:17which is that if you if you significantly reduce the number of teams that are not trying, then the last last years, jazz or grizzlies collectively win three or four more games than they would have otherwise, right? Like maybe maybe that has that effect. So I think I am leaning that yeah, there will be more records clump towards the middle. I just I don't know. I'm increasingly kind of thinking I don't know if anything like it's a if we end up it if we get to the end of the year and the win distributions are pretty close to this past seasons, it's not going to surprise me because there are going to be teams that get just destroyed by injuries and it won't matter that they're that they're tanking or or whatever. So I think maybe maybe there's a way, you know what I'm doing is probably trying to justify how many overs I have because it's me saying like I don't think it's going to be as different as you do. Outsmakers. So this is how I win.

14:17They do you think that there's a chance where we just might see there's more separation in the West and in the East is where it's more clumped together because I had a harder time objectively picking excuse me wins for the East and I'm wondering if I don't know if you did your entire legal overunders at this point. I know you didn't do record jet, but if you're saying you have 10 overs, I'm assuming that you feel similar about the East. Yeah, the East. I actually haven't tallied up how many overs versus I've done my overunders for the West. Okay. My guess is I've got more overs in the East than the West because I think there are just more good teams in the East, right? Like there's more teams that you could just talk yourself in to the Eastern Conference in general. Yeah, I talk myself into the Wizards right now. It's fucking do it. All right. Well, so we both so we both gone under here on this will spoil our and we also will identify what we think is our best quote unquote bet. I do not bet. So this is not betting advice, but bet best pick. This is a vital lock something in spoiler alert. The Hawks are not one of them. You told me they want 49 games. I'd be like,

15:19you know what? You made some great points. Okay, let's get to Boston. Oh, do we have to? Yeah, we do. This is easy. This is easy, Dan. So what is there? They're over underset at 50 and a half, which is that's like so they won 56 last year. They lead down. 60 should a 160 based on their point differential. So file that in there. The conventional wisdom is now suggesting that, okay, yes, you lost. Jay on Brown for a player who's probably he's not Paul George is worse than he's a less valuable player than Jay on Brown right now. I won't listen to arguments of the contrary. Sure. But what you're doing is adding Jason Tatum to a full season and having Paul George rather than having Jay on Brown without Jason Tatum, I can talk myself into that team being pretty darn good. And I will what I'm wondering with you is I came and I actually did their win prediction. I was surprised at how easy I was able to talk myself into them going over this.

16:21Even though I don't view them as a viable championship threat. Is that inconsistent logic? No, not not at all. That I think that is in fact the correct way to think of the Celtics. You get to have it. You get to have it both ways here. I went even more simple. Okay, 56 wins a year ago, better point differential than that. If you take a team and say you can either have Jay on Brown or you can have Jason Tatum, Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, I think I'm taking the ladder. And I think I'm going to assume that the lab. I know Jason Tatum played last year, but what was it 16 games or what like I'm just saying it's just replace Jay on Brown with Jason Tatum for a full season. Then add Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, then price in some growth from these players, these role guys we all love. Then price in Joe Mozilla's a maniac and then also price in probably a little like skittish after picking their under last year and we're never going to let that happen again. Like I think Boston has a great chance to be the number one seed in the east, but we can

17:23still agree that they're a worse playoff threat because they don't have Jay on Brown. Like those two things are not logically inconsistent. In fact, like that's been a most of our analysis, right, which is like this, this Jayland Brown trade probably makes the Celtics less dangerous as a postseason team. Agree. But as a regular season wins factory, I feel better about Boston than almost any other team in the certainly any other team in the conference. I was going to say the league, but there's a couple. So is this your is this your best pick? I'm ready to talk myself into that. I want to get through this. But right now, like if this number had been 53 54 ish, I still probably would have gone over. If you were to talk I went over as well. If you were to talk yourself into the under it starts with Paul George misses a ton of time. Jason Tatum has to miss some time. Yeah, or just isn't the same. And then you could say maybe they don't get as much growth from some of the swing players, but it also could be what if Mitchell Robinson misses time. Yes, you still

18:23have name ESK down Luca Garza, but what if that just isn't as effective your center rotation and then downsizing? I but I don't know like they just they beat the good teams last year in the regular season. And if Jason Tatum is going to be available for 65 games, if they game it out that way, he's going to play 32 minutes a game or whatever it is. This team feels like they're going to go over 50. So I went over and I was I was surprised because I thought they were going to be the team that I started stripping wins away from. But it was just I don't not like the way the Celtics are. I think they just took a step back with their championship equity. So after an offseason of just destroying them from what I thought was inconsistent logic on their part, I kind of felt like I was being a little inconsistent here. But no, it's not. I think like to just take two factors then. Just another way to get there. I don't know why I'm trying to convince you we both agree. But like it's really tough to find a team that plays harder than Boston. And it's really tough to find a team that is more committed to just winning the math problem.

19:24Throw those two things together and you're winning 50 plus. Like it just if you've got decent talent which they have more than decent talent. So I don't know if this might be my best bet, but I'm I would like to talk through some other teams with you first. Can you talk us through what is the Brooklyn nets is over unders there? It's 24 and a half. And man, that's a low number and they don't like it's really low. They do not control their 27 first right. That Houston's got that or via swap I think. They added Julius Randall who might be a floor razor. Maybe Dave Ron Sharp is a net neutral with replacing Nick Claxton as the starter. We like Noah Clownie a lot. We like Yeg or Joe, Joe Man. Why am I going under like why can you what's it that's where I'm going. But I it's tough. It's a low number. Right. And I went under as well. I have them. What I influence you if I tell them about how many wins I actually have the

20:25math. Is that going to ensure you're not going to remember later. No, I'm saying you not want me to share them. No, it's all I have them. I have a 24 wins and my logic here is they didn't do anything. I know Julius Randall in theory should add wins to the table. They didn't do anything this off season that makes me think they're going to be chasing wins. And so I could see them. Michael Porter Jr. doesn't have an extension that makes him more likely to be traded. Michael Brown Jr. is another rookie guard who was beginning the season injured now. We found out has an ankle injury. The center rotation. I liked Dave Ron Sharp. After that, the Mo Wagner and his Danny Wolf playing center. Are they going to to downsize from there? I don't I think Nick Claston probably slipped the past couple of years, but the rim protection numbers like him better even than a day Ron Sharp. And so does this team have what are they on defense? Do they have the personnel to be more aggressive? I would argue if Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randall are going to be playing a lot of minutes together along with one of Joe Man or Michael Brown Jr. The answer is probably no. Well, and the other the the the I'm glad we're talking about this is you're making

21:28sort of like highlight a couple things that I have questions about. You asked what they're going to be on deep and what are they going to be on offense? They were the worst offense in the league last year. They were 30th and offensive rating. And you're telling me you're going to give a significant share of offensive touches to a rookie now. In addition to like like into Randall Randall might help, but also I mean, part of the reason Randall is not on the wolves anymore is that he was not good enough as a playmaker and a secondary role to stay there. So like I think offensively, he's taking the kids golfing. All right. Sure. So I think he's got a great role model. Did you just like did you see the the golfing anecdotes? I haven't I haven't I've heard my Kell Brown Jr. broke a club and people were trying to take their shirts off. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, you know, okay. As a golfer. Yeah. I'm not a golfer. You are. That's is that not allowed to take the shirt off? It might be frowned upon. It might be frowned upon. There are some places that force you to tuck your shirt in still like let alone taking it off. Is it Chris Paul's golf course? Does he? So yeah, are they going to be worse on offense or defense answer? Yes. So I mean,

22:32did you you landed on 24 wins? So obviously this is right on the borderline for you. I had them at 29 initially that number. Okay. And then yeah, so the offense I can talk myself into because I actually think Randall just having someone to soak up that volume will make things easier on Yeg or Joman or Michael Brown. Do we mean after media day is probably a terrible idea? Because you have Michael Porter Jr. saying he wants to be the best off ball offensive player in the NBA, which I'm like, if he says that while looking at this roster, I'm not going to subscribe to his podcast, but like that. I respect that view. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So you could talk me to the offense. I think even Julius Randall might help them get out and transition more a little bit. But the defense, I don't know what it's going to be. And they're the team that doesn't have to concern itself with the record. And I think if they were really concerned about taking a step in the win lost column forward this year, it wouldn't have been much trade. Nicholas claxed in for Julius Randall in the right to move up five draft spots. That's they have key on Alice. They have Mo Wagner. But I don't think those are guys that are going to meaningfully turn you into a 30 something

23:37win. Well, those guys, I think there's one over two of them have mutual options, but they signed several deals with team options to it. It feels like a lot of the players that they brought in in free agency are designed to be moved to. So you could have a bit of a time. Michael Porter and potentially if they trade Michael Porter, Jr. I think they're just substantially worse from a functionality perspective in offense. He's arguably there. I mean, he is their best player, right? Is that a bad Julius Randall's the one who's most likely to make an all in B.A. team still, I think. So you would have the history says so. All right, we're both under there. I'm glad you're with me. I was feeling a little nervous about what we do. We have any disagreements yet. We're about to try to get a new job. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire. Try them all only at my dollars. Show button here. Football season is finally back and prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in line-ups

24:37if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in line-ups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players, pick more or less on their staff projections and submit your lineup. Then, sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season, all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with the deals to start the football season, giving users a new promo every day during stack September. And now, prize picks is available nationwide. So, what are you waiting for? Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on prize picks. What you want? Download the app today and use code BlueWire to get $150 instantly in line-ups if you win your first $5 lineup. Prize picks, run your game.

25:42What's up everybody? If you're listening to this or watching this, could I interest you in getting some bonus content, some ad-free content? If only, there were a way. Dan, could you tell me, is it possible? Could it be done? There is a way! Go to patreon.com slash hardwoodknocks NBA. You can get this episode ad-free as well as two bonus episodes per month. And since we are previewing the season for every single NBA team, we do have extended versions of our team look at us where we're doing a behind-the-paywall segment with every single one of our guests, which have been a blast so far. So, that's patreon.com slash hardwoodknocks NBA where you can also get other perks like discount and merch. You get access to our discord and in passionate versions of Grant behind the paywall. Like, some of the episodes that have come out behind the paywall, Grant is in rare form. Do you really want to miss any of that? I know I don't. I'm just glad you didn't say there's no way because that would have been of waste of our time. And now, back to the show. Okay. The Hornets. 38.5 wins after trading. One of the 10 greatest players in NBA history.

26:48I just can't, I can't fathom this one. Dan, what if I told you they had a 53-win differential last year with that, with that make you feel good about picking them to win like 14 fewer games and hitting this over with that help you? You don't know. You know why? The bread and Miller's shoulder story. He's back and taking contact is I guess that's encouraging, but it just oh, well, I'm already dealing with a hamstring injury. That's that's where it's hurting a little bit, but okay, so keep keep going. Why are they so much worse? Do we trust the playmaking on who's their who's their best passer or best table setter right now? I mean, it has to be Kobe White, doesn't it? It's not Dennis Rooter. It can't be Dennis Rooter. It can't. It cannot be Dennis Rooter. If even if it's Kobe White that looked at data on when it was so small, I think it was fewer than like 300 possessions or something, the numbers are good when he played with Cong and Ipple, bread and Miller and no Mello. You have to do that for an entire season. He was, yeah. So this is a team. They're super interesting on offense and get to a lot of spacing.

27:51Heavy liners, but they just have a lot of guys. I don't think that you can look at the Mello ball trade as anything other than not even an investment in Brandon Miller and Concaniple, because if they were that invested in Brandon Miller, where's the extension? If that was a move about Brandon Miller to me, they're looking at the bigger picture. And I think this is a team then where yes, they will stay out of the relegation zone. Maybe they'll hover around the play in. I'm going under and boy grant, do you want to know the number? I have them penciled in for. This is after this is after years of being a hornet's optimist when it comes to their over under. I'm going to guess you have them at 30 wins. 33. Okay. I I really should take the under here. I really should just you took enough overs based on your so many overs. I this this is this should be an under because the Concaniple hamstring thing is that's feels like a significant issue. The reason I have an over at the moment, unless I talk myself out of it is there that's a

28:58significant fall from what their pace was last year. I know it's like 44 wins on the ledger. You could probably make some of the same criticisms about the quality of opponent when they ran really, really hot, but they also ran really hot for like three quarters of the season. Then you make the Mello ball argument. I have I have no counter to the fact that like that offense was phenomenal when he was out there other than like well, it still worked pretty well with Kobe White in that in that role. I think my overall theory here is that Kobe White can be close enough to what Lamello did and there can be enough growth from other young players that you may not get to 44, but I do think you can get to 500. So I'm going to stay with the over here and I will concede that it doesn't feel great right now where I'm at. So we finally have a disagreement. This is a team at my burn me. I guess I just don't. What is their defense? It's not yeah, it's they don't. You're going to, especially if I

30:01with cannibal and Miller, like neither of those guys, I mean maybe Miller gets there, but neither of those guys is just down on a wing. Right, if you're, are you playing Honest Stein's Bach at the five, is not really going to play some five. Those lineups are going to be you have Moosa Diabata. Okay, great. I don't know is your defense. Ryan Calcbrenner's fine as a rim protector, but is the anchor of your defense. I guess Grant Williams also injured. Make sure. Could this be a top 10 offense? Couldn't it be a top 10 offense with white cannibal Miller, Nasrid, or Diabata in there to just create extra chances. Like I do think there's top 10. I think it's possible. And then we just look out for the 10 as a podcast, the official party line company line as we are out on the Hornets. I'll take the on. All right, I'm going over to Chandler SV 13 says to be fair, they were number 12 and defense last year with bad defensive players too. Charles Lee, I've talked about this always get you to like, gets more out of his players. So yeah, there is that, but I don't like what is the ceiling on this defense? They were top five in defense after Thanksgiving last year. I think when you,

31:05they weren't playing like if you're going to play Nasr Steinbach at the five, I think that's a downgrade defensively right like just by virtue of having those minutes. Yeah, yeah. I think, well, you got Roy so Neil and Grayson Allen, this teams offense. So it was fifth last year. It can't be 10th with a bunch more shooting and Kobe White getting in there and like, maybe Miller's healthier and better. I think this could be a top 10 offense. And then in order to hit 500, you just need to be like 20th on defense or better, which is a big fall off from last year. I just, I could see it. I could see it. If I'll say this, if the Hornets are over 500, Charles Lee better be up there in the coach of the year. I mean, we like him, right? Like we, I guess we'll see. We'll see Andrew says not talking me into a top 10 offense either after looking, he gets it. Andrew gets his grant. Why can't you get it too? Why can't we else get it? So we have our first disagreement. Great. What we disagree on the Chicago Bulls grant 29 and a half wins.

32:06I don't think we will. I had to go under here just because and and it's the right thing for them to do. But I think you want to really see what Modus, Bazzell is going to do with the ball in his hands. And I think you want to play Caleb Wilson as much as you possibly can and as, as exciting as he is, rookies are bad. And so he's going to drag down the overall numbers. I would imagine unless he really is, you know, Kevin Garnett. So I just, I think Chicago is fine with this. I think it's too bad that they adopted this posture now as opposed to five years ago. But I just don't see, I don't see a way for the Bulls to be anything but short of like outside the play in mix realistically. I don't I don't see the talent there. I, who knows, like, like, like how the, what the coaching staff's priorities are going to be. So I don't know. If you can talk me into going over here, I'm interested, but I feel pretty good about the under.

33:07The number is low enough to where if you just look at their top five players or top even top six. So just giddy, powell, buzellis, Wilson, claxon, trade zones is good. Could you talk yourself into right if those guys are playing a bunch of minutes. This team is hovering like low 30s, the high 20s. But after that, it gets one, Caleb, both of them, by the way, are rookie. So we like him long term, but we don't know what he's going to look like immediately. Is he going to come in and start shooting and like hitting threes like he was it summer league? How much is he'll be? He'll be have the ball. He'll be bad. He's going to be bad. Like, I mean, he'll probably be bad. Although we've seen some rookies that have been pretty good on deep. It's just, but it's such a rare rookie that's a positive player. Who's there? Seven best player? I gave you the top six. Do you already say trade zones? He six. So their top six to me would be powell, giddy, trade zones, buzellis, Caleb Wilson, Nicholas, claxon. Then you were picking from a pool of Zach Collins, Patrick Williams, Dan Swain, Isaac, a Coro, Leonard Miller, Noah, a San gay,

34:11Jalen Smith is probably the answer. Is either him or a Coro, I would say. So yeah. I mean, because we mentioned it for Smith, that's probably right. Yeah. We mentioned it for some of the net skies that have to I mean like Norman Powell is pretty clearly designed, that deals design to be traded, right? Like I mean, and novice awesome says Tiago splitter might get more out of these guys than, uh, really don't have any had these guys like really gas in it on offense. And I wonder what splitter is going to do the same. I just, uh, I mean, the best thing you could hope for from splitter is that he sees buzellis as a denny obdea type and it's just what you get a similar leap in terms of the playmaking share. Well, so here's here's my question though, I'm not saying the bulls aren't invested in modest buzellis, but he's also not this regime's guy. Aren't they more like true that with Caleb Wilson than buzellis put like put the ball in his

35:12hands at time. You mean? Yeah. I would love to see it. I don't know. But that's that's you want to ticket to the under. It's Caleb Wilson primary playmaker as a well, the other thing too. We haven't even talked about a little bit trade zones, Norm Powell. I think those are two guys that are they on this team. Yeah, Powell's deal is meant to be traded and then like you maybe even clad. I don't know. So are you going under? You're going under. I went, so I went with, I don't want to speak that I go with I want 26 wins. So I went under with them. Uh, so we're locked up there again, shocker. Uh, high from out here. Cleveland Cavaliers 48 and a half. Where are you at? Great. So I think you I went over. I you don't think you sound so miserable about it. No, I, well, because all these teams can't go over. I don't, although maybe I'll just stick with my whole the odd makers are going about this all wrong and the records won't be that different. But the Cavs won 52 last year. They won was a 64 the year before that. I guess, I guess you could say

36:16they're a little bit thinner because like no way, no streus, but maybe Tyson's even better this year. And then obviously Peyton Watson, like you might you might go, you know, 10 deep or whatever, but like your top eight to nine or maybe even better. If you, if you lose hardened, you still got down to Mitchell, if you lose Mitchell, you still got hardened, there's just like there's so many like what's the disaster scenario here? Like realist, like what's a realistic disaster scenario, which I understand is like a paradox, but it does feel like the Cavs are pretty well designed to hang around the high 40s, low 50s, even with some injuries to me. I in the regular season, it feels as if they could lose any one of their top four guys, one for just a stretch of time and be fine. Yeah. And that I mean, is it I guess maybe that mobility might be the big one just because of what he does defensively for this team, but you know, you're still Jared Allen. My concern and this would matter for the regular season, they just feel not as deep. And so it's

37:23after you go through, so we know what they're starting five is slide Peyton Watson in there. Then I'm assuming it's Jalen Tyson and Sam Merrill of their top two reserves. If you're expecting Jalen Tyson's been good, but is he going to continue to make progress? Sam Merrill should, I think, he'll absolutely be fine, but after that, it's yeah, like, his own. Yeah, I don't feel comfortable with that. I overstated it. I was like, oh, they're top eight or nine. It's really their top seven that are very good. But then after that, it's you're counting on a lot of guys that have not come through in the past. So yeah, I don't know. I think, I mean, you also got a factor in, if you want to go under here, isn't there some potential for there to be like, whether it's with Atkinson or just the general mix, hard and having this kind of security is a little scary. It's like, this gets a little stale. And there's, and there's, there's just kind of, oh, these guys are kind of over it playing with each other. I mean, it's, you know, we're just coming off media day where everybody's super amp. So it feels like a crazy thing to say. But if you were

38:26choosing a team to kind of just for whatever reason that other coaches and getting through or this mix of players aren't getting the like Cleveland would be on my list for that. Like more so than Boston or more so than Detroit or more so whatever. The other goodies team. So I'm still going over. But I, you, there's a lot of cases to be made for the under. I'm just partly because that's a high number relative to the rest of the league. I went over as well. I have them at 50 and I initially had them at 53. Well, see if I change my win projections at all. I'll keep them in lock step with my over underpicks though. I, I just think in the regular season this team, I tried to think the way that Donovan Mitchell played without during those James Hard minutes or how the catchers really didn't want it to be a primary ball handler in the playoffs. Got him my head and said, well, what if James Harden's getting older? He's been a gamer. He's played. What if this is the year that he doesn't? And I'm just like in the regular season, Donovan Mitchell kind of as you're all everything has already worked for the cast and they've won a bunch of games doing it. By the way, the other thing here is dealing with injuries at like 52 wins last year while

39:30training for James Harden mid season. So my argument for even dragging them down is they feel a little shallower. There's a big, there's too big. Like I guess you're used to playing with James Harden and you get a training camp, but there's a couple new pieces in Peyton Watson and James Harden like integrating him still relatively new and also just the East is better. And so that's really my only my only way to bring them down. So I went over as well. I'm more I'm more bought into it than you are though. Sounds like and maybe a little bit. Yeah. Detroit. This one's tough because as we record this, there are over under 48 and a half. They won 60 last year. Jalen Duran remains unsigned. I'm assuming he's going to sign. Would you? I talked about this with Mr. Tupor. I'm coming out of media day, but when you go through the numbers on the Jalen Duran, if he signs the qualifying offer and then leaves for a four year max contract next year, it's less. Yeah, it's not $500 million. So he would have to be pretty pissed at the pistons. You've reached the emotional point of no return. So my guess is that he's just going to sign a long term contract. And while

40:35this might be a contentious relationship between him and his agent and the front office, I don't think that bleeds through with his teammates. I don't think so either. I think he's going to take whether maybe it goes to 210 or something, but my guess at the moment is he's going to take the 200 million. Like because I don't know how how disrespected you need to feel to say no to $200 million guarantee. That's just still feels like posturing to me. He might be upset like genuinely, whether you think that's reasonable or not, but he's going to take the money and then he's going to play. So I think I don't I've been really hard on the pistons. I think they made a huge mistake in not getting more playmaking and just assuming shooting will fix everything. I don't I still my criticism there is that like you you failed to make yourself better for playoff purposes, which isn't what we're talking about here. So regular season one, we also disagree on that point. Yes, we do. We do. Regular season wise, I'm not seeing a reason to knock them down

41:40a dozen plus wins from last year. If you think a star Thompson's going to improve, I'm on the fence there, but that's another way forward. Even if Jalen Duren is not an all NBA player, if you think Ron Holland might have a little bit more. If you think a full season of Jenkins in that secondary playmaking role creates better results. Like these are all reasons to say they can win 60 again, which is not what we're discussing here. It's can they win 49 to go over and I think they definitely can. Novice awesome. O3 says John Collins seems like a downgrade from Tobias. I think if you're looking for shot creation. Yes, as a willing three point shooter and a screener. I don't think he's that I don't think he's going to be a downgrade and why I'm bullish on the pistons is also I don't have them winning 60 games. Spoiler alert. I think that they improved the spacing without getting too far away from their defensive identity of we're going to be physical and force a bunch of turnovers. They didn't who did they get rid of that impacted their ability to

42:41generate a bunch of turnovers and get it to offense that way. Isaiah Stewart, but he played he did play 1300 minutes last season and they also force turnovers less often when he was on the court. So that look they I will say I am surprised that they just moved Isaiah Stewart and the challenge her like negotiations went this way. So there's definitely a downside to this team. I ultimately think that I have them at 51 wins. So it's nine fewer than last year. I think that's a symptom of the Eastern Conference more than the state of the East more than I am much lower on the pistons. Yeah. Honestly, I think they could win 49 games if Paul Reed is your starting center and they get some crappy back like Kate Cunningham is going to be a top seven MVP candidate conservatively right and like this team defend like I think 60s a lot 60s tough I don't see that happening again. But if I'm if you force me to pick a team in the East to win 60 regular season games, it might just be them in Boston. I don't know who else I would really talk. I don't think

43:44the Sixers have that kind of ceiling. For example, the spoiler will get there right like. Yeah, no way to fall and still get over here. I'm going through it in my head and I think you're right is that it's Detroit and Boston would just be the picks. Like because Toronto, Quas is not going to play enough games there. Right. Right. Yeah. I'm trying to like could Orlando just like blow the doors off like everyone's healthy and that's the team. I don't think you aren't going to let themselves get there. No, even if they could do you think the pistons are more likely to win because they have the same overrunner as Cleveland of both 48 and a half who's like the person that I've been 51 and Cleveland at 50. So I have good. There it is. Detroit's more likely to go wild to say because don't you feel or do you not feel better about the top end talent? Inquit like put the top five against Detroit's top five. Who are you taking back you? I think I'm just more worried about like a hardened total collapse at his age or something or a Mitchell injury. Kate just feels but knock on wood. I'm sorry if something happens. Kate feels bulletproof to me and like you have fucking asshole. If you have that guy.

44:48You have that guy in the absolute like beginning of his prime years. I mean you can only be so bad with with with that dude as long as he's healthy. The Indiana Pacers 43 and a half wins. Did you know they they were leading in game seven of the 2025 NBA finals before I mentioned that several times in discussing the Pacers leading into the seat. So I never know how to approach this shocker. I'm going over again because that's just what I'm doing on every team. Why are they going to win 43 or fewer games? Is the Halliburton sucks now? What are we doing? Well, one, you have to imagine that they're going to manage his workload at least a little bit. Two, I think people are concerned about the of each of Zubat's dynamic. But also they're already talking about his impact for offensive rebounding. And if they're going to let him crash the offensive glass. I'm just a paschal seeachim will fit next to him. If you wanted to build I'm going over as

45:51well. I think the Pacers are being I don't know that they're going to reach their ceiling during the regular season. Yeah. But if you're if you're asking about a 50 win candidate and we're assuming all the top players of every team play in 65 games like the Pacers would be a 55 win team to me. Where I do actually start to worry the bench could be pretty rough. I like a lot of the guys. But it's teaching McConnell didn't look great last year. Kelly of the junior is a good signing. But does he do enough of what you want on offense? Then is he going to provide you with enough defense? Does it happen for Ben Shepherd this year? What is Jaros Walker to this team? Obe topping like some of the lineups with him in the front court have been great. So they have depth. But I don't know if I feel as bankable about it as maybe I did it in years past, which is they didn't do it like Benedict math. It's not on this team because that's why I feel much worse about that. I say a Jackson's not on this team. They're probably going to be deeper than people because all the guys that I just mentioned like even Jay Huff is all right. Is your second big man or third big if it's behind obi fourth big behind obi top and sure. So I have them as did I pull

46:57wins away from them. Let me double check. I had them at 48 initially. I dropped them down to 46, which is still comfortably in the over. So I'm over on the Pacers. Yeah. I just I think I think they're offence is going to be phenomenal. And I think defensively they've got enough guy. I could just you know, I don't know if I if you said what's your biggest concern from this about this team aside from how many games does Tyres Halberd play? Yeah. I mean, that's that's like one that's concerns one through 57 I think on the list is just him. I would be concerned that they it looks to me like they have a top a good top seven that I like, which is Seattle Halberton, Seattle, Zubat's, Nemhard, Neesmith, Ubrei, Altho Topin in there. And my concern would be that you just don't get enough from the likes of McConnell and Walker and Shepard, which maybe that maybe there's a trade to be made there too by the way with with like Walker salary is big enough that you could do some interest in McConnell for that matter too. I guess

47:59depth. I guess it is depth, which I think is what you highlighted first is after that top six seven guys it's your your your your I mean, it's it's scary that Walker matters a little bit here I think because nobody's sort of yeah, yeah, I think that's that's a concern. If there's a team that's one just in Champagne trade away from winning 55 plus games, it's all that's awesome. Show button here. Football season is finally back and prize picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right. If you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. On prize picks, you simply pick two to six players, pick more or less on their staff projections and submit your lineup. Then sweat it out as you watch your picks play out live. It's the best way to get more locked in on game day. Make all the picks you want. This football season all in the same app. Also, prize picks is going crazy with the deals to start the football season giving users a new promo every day during stack September

49:04and now prize picks is available nationwide. So what are you waiting for? Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on prize picks. What you want? Download the app today and use code blue wire to get one of your $50 instantly in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. This one grant Miami Heat 44 and a half. What just feels for a team that just straight. Over we're going over on everybody. Could we just assume that you're going over to hold on? Yeah, I think I have two more under so there's more halfway through. Look, what did they hold on? I want to get this right. So they won 43 last year. And you're telling me adding, you know, I know they traded for real players. But come on. Okay, no, the obvious counter is the health and the depth and whatever. We don't believe in the heat

50:04enough. There's only here's the thing. There's only one way to me that they don't win 45 or more games is because Yannis gets hurt for an extended period of time. That is you could lose BAM. And if Yannis is still going to play in 70 games or something, I'm going to hit the over. The numbers, this is someone who's worried about what Yannis will look like on his next contract. Him the lineup he uplifted in Milwaukee last year. Insanity. And they won without him and granted now there's the late season noise in there. They played at a 25 when pays without Yannis last year. So this is a dude that is just worth so many wins on his own. And I think some of the concerns about this team aside from the health are even just a little bit overblown. The shooting, I'm not as worried about it. It's okay. It's okay. It's part of my junior and Clay Thompson are removing ties. It's not just go stand in the corner and so that takes care of that. The defense, neither of those guys are going to help you there. But you have BAM and Yannis. Wiggins is fine. Davy on Mitchell, Drew Smith being in the rotation. Pelle Larson just has good positional

51:07size. If there was a big concern for me, it's probably it's the ball handling because there's you trust Davy on Mitchell or Pelle Larson more. Is it a fatal floor that that's the question that we're asking? And then how do they generate offense during the non Yannis minutes, which I guess gets looped into the ball handling a little bit. But in a I wouldn't even say an ideal scenario in the median outcome scenario. Is it in a Yannis place 33 minutes a game and appears in 65 games and this team wins high 40s low 50s? Yeah, that's how I look at it too. I just the I guess, I guess if you if you really think Yannis might be like he's kind of gone over like past a point of no return health wise, which the trend is not great. But unless you really think, I mean, we're in like him bead territory. We're like 40 games isn't promised or something like that. I don't I can't go under unless that's where we think we are with Yannis. And I share all of your concerns going forward about him. I think if you want to criticize this trade, it's like

52:09you you gave up you gave up so much for a guy that you're just going to get his bad injury prone years going forward like maybe, but I don't think we're there yet with him where where it's just a total like even like a Kauai first most of his Clippers tenure. We're not there. If you're betting on who's going to appear more games this season, choir, Yannis, you're betting on Yannis, right? I think you have to because because like if he's like Kauai is going to rest back to back. So he's healthy. I don't think Yannis is going to do that this year, right? Like I don't think there's any way that happens. And the other thing too is I think it's yes, he's finished now. How many seasons over the past like four or whatever injured this past year. I don't we don't know the full story, but he wanted to play in the book, said no. And so like the 30 something games is artificially deflated to me. I went with let me see. Again, I ripped wins away from so many teams and he's double checked this. I had them at 47 wins. I even had them at 48 initially, but got I'm telling you 50 wins over is a lot, man. That's just that's just so many. Andrew Willet would bet on Kauai playing in more games than Yannis. My question to Andrew Willet is why? I'm just genuinely curious. He goes every like that's one

53:17of the things that's being undersold here. We're not on the raptors, but just one of the things that's being undersold here is it's cool that he has a great relationship with the training staff. It's like 10 years later guys. I don't know. Like do you want Kauai playing in 70 games if you're the raptors? No, of course. Okay. He's also and this isn't this isn't an insult. You could put him who's going to be more accepting of a maintenance program? Yannis or Kauai? Yeah. Kauai's lived his whole life on a main thing the last decade on a maintenance program. What are we talking about? I lived my life one maintenance program. One maintenance at a time. So we're both over on the heat, which is funny because I destroyed the trade for Yannis. The Milwaukee bucks 26 and a half. Do you need to give us the caveat? Like is there a caveat on this team? Over. Come on. There's really NBA players on this team. Are you scaring Burt? No, I don't know where he is. He's not interested in over under. He's not a gambler.

54:22Okay. 26 and a half. That's a low winds hotel. It's not, I mean, we just did, we went through Brooklyn. Brooklyn's lower. Look, I'm going to say some names. Okay. I'm going to say to you some names. And you stop me when you say like I'm not interested in this player as a like a decent NBA contributor. Tyler Hero, Miles Turner. Stop. Stop. I mean, I'm just going in order. Stop the two players. No, there's more. Let's see. Ryan Rollins. That's an NBA player. We like Ryan Rollins a lot. He's 24. What if he's like a 20 and 10 guy next year? I don't know, it's possible. What if he like the pistons? I mean, you're mouth of God's ears. Hi, my name is Jr. Kalo where? AJ Green, Casper, Sir, Coach, Jonas, Gary Trent Jr. We'll see where Gary Trent Jr. is. But like, there's a carousel of hurt. Brain Burries, we like, who's bunjang? We like, Kim Porter Jr. Not a good dude, but has been a pretty effective NBA player

55:23in stretches. Like here, there's real players on this team. This is not, this is not a Sacramento. This is not a, who else is just, I mean, Brooklyn even, there's real players here. 26 and a half. Like, I got to go over. Here's my thing. What's the over under on the number of starting lineups they play this year? I'm going to say 40.5 is going to say it's bigger than 26 and a half. Yeah, for sure. This is a good coach too. We like him. I think he's a very good coach. I think that this team is going to be, as of right now, is going to be a future rebounding team. I don't know what they look like defensively. The positional size isn't great. And the other thing too is I'm taking in the idea of mid season trades plural that make them worse. This isn't a team that controls its own draft picks. They're not going to worry about the relegation zone. And it's not, for them, it's not even about, like, what is, how do you measure success or failure this season? You really almost can't. It's, do we get any progress from these,

56:23look, some of them, by the way, Tyler Hiro, Jaime Haka's junior, Kevin Porter playing for next contract. They're not all going to finish the season on the same team. I know Bucks fans, you should be bullish on Ryan Rollins. He's a $4 million player option next summer. Are the Bucks just going to want to turn around and pay him $25 million a year or 15% of the salary cap or whatever? He's a trade candidate. They're going to make moves that make them worse because the goal of this season is to be closer or have a better chance of finding your next franchise corner stone. They don't, who's the player that's most likely to be that on the roster right now? You default, you, you probably default to one of the future picks that they own. I like Brandon Burries. I don't really know how to feel about native meant. I love Ryan Rollins, but like, those are the only three realistic candidates. And I don't find any, like, Brandon Burries would have, even if he's the next Derek White, they, he's still not the answer, right? God, you're making a good case here. I did yell over though. So I feel like,

57:24now your neighbors are going to, yeah, they're going to think I'm a liar when I, so what do you, what do you have? Do you have them like going significantly beneath 26? I have them, I have them at 12 and 70. So I have them at 25 wins. Okay, so you're right there. So I could, if they win, so that means you could see them winning 27, right? For sure. They're like, they're sort of like the Memphis Grizzlies, which is fun, they have Taylor Jenkins, but they're Memphis Grizzlies East where there's, there's a lot of just guys that you like, but I don't know that they co-alasant to this good enough basketball team. And when you, what's the, here's on a night tonight basis, night tonight basis, pick one team in the East that you are confident Milwaukee is beating next season. I mean, Brooklyn, that's, so there's one. Who else do we have? Like night tonight. I think they're pretty, you got a, I think Washington probably looks a little better. Yeah, you run out pretty fast. That's true.

58:26Yeah, this, first of all, the only answer is Charlotte. They can, I mean, they can hit the over and be the second worst team in the conference if they win. They could. That's a part of this is it. We're not trying to hand out 12 overs in the, yeah, well, you're maybe you're not. Well, on my way. Okay, you're making a good case here. And I do need another under. I hadn't really considered enough of, because what if I said this, this roster is on the team through, like, maybe they trade one or two guys, but for the most part, this is the roster that plays the full season, assume normal-ish health, whatever that means for guys like hero. I don't know. Like, this, this is a 30 something win team, I think, based on the personnel and the coaching. But the points that you're making about, I guess, the modern lottery era equivalent of steering into the skid, not not losing on purpose, but, but trading away, can like current talent for future stuff. They're pretty clearly positioned to be one of those

59:27teams. So I think you have talked me into the under. I wasn't even trying to convince you, but I am also sold that you will be thanking me when you go to do your record projections. And don't write like you need to pull in. I don't need to give 27 to the books just by default. All right, I'm changing it on my sheet. You did it going under. Don't feel good about it. When they're this low, but it's two year point at the top of the podcast, there might just still be these teams where they're clearly rebuilding their win told those are super low. In the in the previous lottery era, I guess you've got a factor in if they have their pick or not, this team would have been a no brainer under, right? Because they're going to sell off. They're going to be tried to be as awful as possible. They just traded on this tank for years. The other thing I wanted to ask you though is so this team is clearly to you skews offensive oriented, right? When you're looking at the person now. Yes. I mean, hero, Turner, Rollins, Hawkez, like there's in some shooting, AJ Green to just like there's there's a real there are real offensive lineups here.

1:00:28I just feel as if they're way like so the box without Yannis on the court last year, 23rd percentile of offense. When you take her that to the half court, they're actually in the 49th percentile. Shout out Ryan Rollins, man. I guess Ryan Rollins and hero. I'm just I guess not as sold that they're going to be a good offensive team. Clear the palate. Sorry, clear path, clear path, pal. Excuse me. Do you think a lack of tanking will show as a separation and coaching talent creativity? Ooh. Well, look, I'm clear. How did you heard that every every NBA team plays the same way? Haven't you heard that? Here's what it will do for I'm most confident is it'll remove the ability of analysts like us to say about guys like Will Hardy and like Brian Keifer, whoever like well, we don't really know. I mean, we kind of think we do know about those two guys for just as examples, but I think you won't go through multiple seasons where you say, I we you know, we can't really judge this coach because you know, he's been like the goals been to lose or the goals been to play the wrong lineups at the time. Like I think it removes that.

1:01:31Will it reveal I guess the the the corollary to that is that yeah, you will see coaches like actually trying more stuff creatively since it you know, they won't be penalized for like finding something that works when you're supposed to be losing, you know. That was a good question. Oh man, this team, the next the reigning champion New York, next we have to call them by that 51 and a half. They won 53 games last year. I don't know how much you saw from the media take quotes, Grant, but I immediately lowered my projection by two or three. Seems like people would like their money now, please. They everybody would like some money, please. I have heard a lot of talking with doing I don't know if I've announced on the podcast doing some work for locked on nicks and speaking with John Wallace, who's very optimistic about this team and his around the team. I think is I don't mean this as an insult is like infected me a little bit with yeah, like they're not going to care about the money or the contract situation. There's going to be no championship hangover. I was looking at some historical data and seeing like how the like average champion

1:02:34net rating like is impacted the following season. Yeah. If favors some type of a slump, whether it's because of a championship hangover or not. So that is all to say. I went under. I have them at 51 wins on the button. Let me make sure I stayed there. I didn't go back over. Did I know I was I wasn't a good I was a terrible New York where I went with 51. The contract stuff, if they don't hash out the extensions, I do think this team has shown it is not immune to distractions. We were I sat here. I'm not saying I was I clearly was wrong. In February, I think it was when Carthie Tows randomly brought up losing Cameron Payne is this inflection point for the team less season and said something is rotten. This team's not right. That was an overstatement. But clearly, when you have Josh Hart and Cara, the town saying it could become a distraction. I'm afraid that it could become a distraction seems like it's already a distraction. And on top of that, beyond it is just they don't like the regular season isn't there barometer for success anymore. And I think Mike Brown will try and spread. And honestly, if you're really never going to go into

1:03:35the second apron, yeah, you better spread the wealth and get some minutes for Moadio R.A. for Tyler Colick. Because if you're going to lose, do Smith-Bride after this season, I think there's going to be spread the minutes out. Maybe you see some lower minutes totals for certain guys. I think this is still good team. I have a 51 wins. So it's close to there. But they were a team where I went. I don't know, but they're not going to be really going for 52, 53 wins again. And I as good as they played in the playoffs after game three of that Atlanta series, I don't view them as that much better than the rest of the east. Like they're not just going to roll through this conference. I'll, they're not going to be the 61 team is my point. No, I agree with everything you said. This was this was actually a very easy under for me. And I can say that while acknowledging I think the nicks are probably the best bet to make the finals from the east. I don't know if that's actually true. But I mean, they're they're probably going to be my pick to come out of the east. But it's you don't in terms of do you not feel good? It's not that I don't feel good about it.

1:04:36But you could talk me into more teams beating them in the east. Then you can talk me into the number of teams beating OKC in the West. Right. That's all to say, though, that neither of us view them as the team was likely to be the number one seed in the east. Like I mean, I don't know. Like there's just I don't think that's I would be shocked. I'd be surprised. Right. It's not shocked. It'd be oh, the next best team the east. But I'd be pretty surprised if they have the best regular season record in the east. I think I would just add like there's a handful of guys that really matter that are on the wrong side of 30 now. They played 100 game season last year. Like they, you know, they got to do I would imagine that all the hoopla that you've got to deal with as a champion is like 1.5 X because it's a New York team. And because it's a team that had one in 50 years like that that that all just add maybe the flip flipping it makes it a little crystallize that better for me, which is to say, what is the argument for them being better during the regular season than they were last year? Like where where are you put like they're not deeper.

1:05:37They aren't younger. They don't have more to prove that you know, they like it. They don't have there's there's all this all these there's no factor that that is signaling to me that they're going to put the the pedal down and you know that they can or will put the pedal down for another 82 games before the playoffs. Like I just I just don't see any reason for that. The other thing too is I really for the minimum on trade drumming perfectly fine. Yeah, there's there's a real drop off in center play and it's either you're not going to go into the season with the third center or it's going to be Drew U-Banks or James Wiseman at this point or you make a trade for one which cash you a question maybe I'm too in my next silo for this. Are you I've seen a lot of why wouldn't you just trade dousmic bride for a third big? Why are you trading dousmic bride for a back like not no one's going to crack your starting five but you're going to trade him for the backup

1:06:37who's going to play 12 or 15 minutes a game in the playoffs. I just don't seconds sure you're trying to move pecome daddy is contract I've just seen too many people think you you have to move do's and get another big and it's I guess the nicks have a lot of guards but there's also from a value proposition perspective. Well, I don't know that the guy you would get for McBride is so much better than someone you could sign off the scrap heap to to a minimum that it justifies giving him up. That's more the way I would look at it. I think you could get you pretty close to who you could trade him for for nothing. Would you do dousmic bride who says no dousmic bride from Musa Diabate? I would do that. I think I would do that. I will do the hornet say yes though because they need no they could use McBride's defense but they also have a lot of guards and who says they're starting center. So and but then I guess I said yes but does Diabate do what the nicks need from that backup spot? I guess he's a very change of pacey kind of guy from drummond. I get you know he's a good offensive rebounder too. Yeah he's not as physical as a drummond or a robin.

1:07:41If you were trying to get some of the Robinson magic at a discount maybe Diabate in his own way could kind of do some of that. I don't know. The other thing too is we root for the hornets to trade Diabate to the nicks because that immediately makes my underpick on the hornets. You're just not ready for the caulkburner explosion. Look out. All right. Another one. I know. 44 and a half. All they did basically was change the coach. And would they win last year? They pulled the nicks right? The next change the coach won the title. So by that logic the Orlando Magic or 2027 NBA champions. They won 45 last year. I know I've cited this when justifying it over a lot but their differential was like 41 wins. They're best or they're preferred lineup of uh Sugs, Bane, Franz, Palo and Windle Carter played like 400 possessions or something like that. 19 games in the regular season. 19 games.

1:08:41Isn't there an argument that a different coach and say 30 games from those guys gets you over based on winning 45 last year. And you only need to get to that number again this year. Like why? So this is where well the east is just better and they're going to play real teams every night. Comes in. I don't what's the what's the case for them to win fewer games? Is I guess in my point then last year. Here's the first of all. Thank you, Nova's awesome. What we can hit this like as so the case would be the sample size on Palo and Franz winning together is big enough and we've concluded that they can't. I don't I don't agree with that. I think I think this is the year though. Would you agree Dan that if you do get that big sample and maybe this is more of a playoff question. But if those two guys aren't part of one of the best lineups in the league, which actually by the way, they're like plus 11 in there when they're preferred starting five last year. Then maybe you move on from one or the other. The other factor

1:09:41that we've talked about for years now is that there's only so many levers to pull. You just change the coach. The next lever to pull is trading one of your big expensive pieces correct. So this year I do think is very likely to be a maker break thing. But I think here we talked about it. This was the right call to try with this group again in a new coach. Now you think? Correct. And to Nova's awesome O3 question and thank you for the Super Chat. I don't know how you can sit and look at the sample and then how the offense was run and just declare that those two can't win again. And like that's where the concern is is on offense. And it's I don't know that they've won. There's the availability issues for sure when it comes to fronds over like a couple of these seasons. But more for me is a lot of your your turn my turn stuff in Orlando. The bigger thing for me has been really bad spacing, really bad spacing. This is a team that got Desmond Bain and saw his three point attempt rate decline for much of the season. And you look at the like it was only it was under a thousand possessions last year 914

1:10:44plus 6.6 points per 100 possessions with Paulo and Franz on the floor. 67th percentile of offense. You would like that to be like a 114 offensive rating and an effective field goal percentage of 56 like that's just like knowing what those two bring you defensively like Paulo with his size is probably I think he's a little bit more switchable than people give him credit for. Franz is always competed on that side of the floor as well. There's concerns here. But I don't my biggest thing is even if the coaching doesn't work out this season. Do we see them get out and transition more together on the floor? That's something that I don't think they've tried enough. Even if that doesn't work, can you still make the case that the environment around them still isn't optimized when looking at the complimentary talent? Yeah. I think you probably have to move one of them because of how expensive they are. But I think I like I'm just not sold on this idea that if it's if it's a four gone conclusion these two can't win together. I think it's because the magic failed to create the environment for them to do so before they were on these mega deals.

1:11:45Does that make sense? Yeah. No, I think I want to get back to to novice awesome question because there's like the sample sizes one factor. I do think just from a what can the guys do well versus what don't they do well or what have they not so far done well. There is a real sort of friction or clash between Franz and Paulo because they're both best with the ball. They both have pretty limited off ball value and they're both extremely highly paid. That's a that's a version of the setup the Celtics just opted out of and these two guys have proved not even a fraction of what what Brown and Tatum have proved. But I think the shelf life is relatively short here. If Franz comes out and shoots 40% from deep or Paulo, I don't know which is more likely like or and and Sweeney has them moving off the ball and like actually drawing attention without it like I'm open to the idea that this can work but just on its face this is those two guys are not

1:12:48complimentary players right like that at the very least we can say that it's not like a synergistic thing where one makes the other better other than you've got a guard both with really good defenders. So maybe somebody has an easier matchup so the name otherwise when you say they're not like what would what would make them synergistic is that one of them would need to be a point guard that is that we're kind of it's one or the other I think it can be two it can come from two directions it can be skill development where one or the other becomes the type of spot up or movement shooter that defenses have to freak out about when they don't have the ball or the new offensive scheme that we see sort of weaponizes them together as cutters or they the screening actions are tricky because they're similarly sized I don't know if you're going to get a lot of real advantage situations using both in picking roles but it can be sort of schematic and tactical or it can be skill development but at the moment they're both suspect outside shooters that are best with the ball in their hands so that's not ideal but I don't I don't think they're locked into that they're

1:13:53both young enough to wear the right coach or the right skill development can change that this is all to say I'm going over and I feel pretty good about this one well that so the the question to though was would you have moved one of them already though no because that's the last lever that's the last lever you pull and you pull all the other ones first we're down to it now because if this doesn't work then you've already pulled the others and even if you believe it's not their fault specific even if you believe it can work just financially it can't how are you changing the team yeah this team is wildly expensive now and and they're locked into that until they make a change and yeah no I I wouldn't have done it yet I would have been tempted I think but but I again we're not that far removed from we forgot this that palo last not this most recent postseason but the one before did stuff that had us thinking well this guy's making an all NBA team they and he just disappointed last year so we're not there's there's there's some outs here I think who who concerns you but like when you're looking at the interplay or the coexistence of fron's and palo that's

1:14:56interesting uh who concerns who concerns me more well I would I think it's palo but that's partially because he's supposed to be so much more than fronzes okay that makes sense I'm really worried about fron's a shot I think it looks like shit and it's just like it's got a real issue but um palo is supposed to be the guy and he's just not efficient enough as a scorer doesn't do enough other stuff yet maybe maybe that'll change uh as my hardwood knocks branded magic shirt might imply I'm going over here as well I have them at is it 47 wins yeah I have them 47 wins uh would not they're just healthy though like jaylon sucks is on off split like this could be a 50 win team but they're their depth does worry me a little bit like to get more of the overarching like snapshot of this team where it's okay you're starting five assuming they're available dynamite we like Anthony black like Tristan de Silva's fine like Vooch I guess is a backup five makes a lot of sense here so they

1:15:57have a lot of guys but you could reach a point where it's oh is Jamal Cain a little bit too important to this team so like that that would be my hang up but I have them I have them over and it wouldn't if if you were to pick I think more likely to go under like 44 and a half or win like 48 like win more than I have them I'm still gonna take the over I think so too yeah they're like an outside they're one of the teams you could talk yourself into being a 50 win candidate I think could you talk this team into how is that for a segue Philadelphia 76ers 50 and a half uh this would be a good reminder that these lines are definitely influenced by the amount of public action on the team and so the the sixers are that shiny new new squad 15 and a half I mean they got a lot of talent on this roster Glenn great and I make can I try an argument on you and it's not even like one that I'm making but just like respond to this please VJ Edgecomb and Jalen Brown if healthy for a lot of games and a decent supporting cast which the sixers have you know Dean Wade Simon's there's

1:17:03Barlow there's there's like real players here is that a 500 team is that a 44 win team just just say exclude LeBron and imbede from the picture entirely you've got Edgecomb you've got Brown you've got a solid enough supporting cast can you win as often as you lose with that group so Maxi still on this hypothetical team and Maxi fucking a like of course I don't know why I started him yeah Maxi Edgecomb Brown solid supporting cast am I putting too much value on the the backup center rotation then or would be the starting row center rotation in this is it we're playing a lot of Dominic Barlow there or you need aerial hook porti or a dem bono to play so you have to populate those are eight minutes a set of minutes yep from those three you get six to five minutes a piece however you want to do it what's the alternative over under for them uh can they be can they win 42 games yeah yeah dude I think they came with those three guys so then the question is what

1:18:06are we tacking on to that how comfortable are we with 10 more wins from LeBron and Joelle imbede if they if they combine to play if they combine to play 82 games those two guys do you win 10 more do you win five more man you're making me rethink my pick this you miss so pre compelling that so that is how I approached it that is how I have at the moment in pencil have them as an over but the thing is you really could just assume you get nothing from imbede and you get this is the year LeBron can't keep doing it and I don't know what that means it's not they're both not going to play zero games but they both might might play 25 shitty games or imbede might play between this will be a we're gonna do like an episode with some of these lines but what is the over under the number of games that they're preferred starting five actually plays in it's not a I would say like what's a quarter of the 20 21 and a half or yeah 20 and a half or something

1:19:10and that seems that seems like a lot yeah I mean it's I'm sure this is not the right way to approach it but I really did persuade myself with the whole like take get nothing from LeBron and imbede how good is this team and it's now I think it I think they win more than they lose with those top three guys you're probably right but here's what I I went under I have them at 47 wins which is just like you really taught me that I need to bump them up to I don't know where my other four victories are coming from at that point though yeah your imbede is going to miss time and then I don't know what the center rotation looks like on that night how do you hold up what helps is that edge comb jaylon brown and maxi traditionally play but is there any downside or initial impact of the lineup is kind of shuffling because imbede is out a bunch and then even if it's there's no suffering from there there's a chance that the the fractured version of this team co-laces better than the full strength version of this team just because I don't I think this is gonna work out

1:20:11I think they're going to be a more way more dangerous playoff team and they've been yeah but they have some they talked about this the the theme of their media day was the word sacrifice came up a bunch of times the word alpha came up as well and that that was really fun. jaylon brown was not biting right so it's going to take time for them to figure this out and that's why ultimately think when you have that especially on offense they're going to need just figure out what that dynamic looks like is that dynamic interrupted because of it meets availability and that's that helper hurt them figure out their offensive identity and then defensively basically no one asked them about defense uh during media day dominate bar that was up there he called them he's like we're probably one of the most switchable teams in the NBA and he was naming Lebron himself dean Wade and jaylon brown is reasons why and it's I can get on board with a lot of those guys maybe not Lebron yeah so that made me believe oh so it was Dominic Barlow with the five a default to so there's enough questions to where even if you think this works out it feels as if

1:21:17it's gonna take time for me and time plus I assume Lebron's gonna play in like 65 on the button if not could you I'm not saying he would think this way but isn't Lebron now the type of player would be I'm gonna play in 64 to take myself I don't have to like get it you should I be on an all in me oh I maybe I would have made it if I was eligible so I don't know I think you more likely cut the other way because he could figure out how to manage himself through 65 games just to just to hit it and you like a dog fall in the air the under feels I don't want to say dumb but risk ear for the reason of like jaylon brown edge com and maxi all just play yeah and then Lebron yes this could be the year but even when he's dealt with injuries like it's never been the year right right I'm going I'm gonna stay over um while acknowledging like we haven't really this team does have like true catastrophe potential for like personality wise or just like fit wise or or whatever like it's a low I think it's a low percentage chance but sometimes when you do this when you bring in

1:22:23like really big talents and personalities to a team that already has some it just goes sideways especially when like you know Brown's not towards the end of his career but Lebroncher is when you do the like get the game you know one last ride with this like put like what are the Lakers team with like Carl Malone and Gary Payton or like those rocket teams that had Scotty Pippen and Charles Barley and like this isn't that but there's a I'm not confident in the over I just I really am so that this is a very good team without and beat and Lebron doing much what's more likely that they finish with the best record in the Eastern conference is currently constructed or they trade joe and beat I guess I have to pick that they finish with the best record I don't think you can trade joe and beat the Toronto Raptor man these the the end run on the uses is pretty difficult yeah Toronto Raptor is 46 and a half don't know if you heard but they traded for choir Leonard we signed an extension uh where are you at with them I'll do the same math they won 46 last year

1:23:27why are they worse tell me why they're worse they quit you're saying that Grady Dick and a Torn Achilles Brandon Ingram would have been more helpful than well to be fair bread in Ingram wasn't playing on a 20 kills right close to last but we don't know that look how long it took for this injury news to come out who's to say I I didn't watch that closely he might have been hopping around the whole time and I just didn't pick up on it so his screen navigation was shit no I right like 40 if you think CMB is going to be better if you think quickly finally stays healthy if you think uh Scotty Barnes has like a fraction of a leap to make which maybe that's conservative choir is just better than Ingram if you what's the ex games of choir Leonard equals uh 70 of Ingram and Grady Dick oh 40 like 35 I don't know all right it's got it's got to be in the 40s you he has to play more than half the season okay I think you can do that I'm not sure

1:24:30you can play two thirds but I think you can play you can play half what does this T how do you feel about this team when choir is not if choir is not there I I think it's still I think between Barnes and quickly and bear it is what he is maybe Jacobi Walter CMB I think the defense is going to be awesome either way um I think offensively if Barnes can can build on what he did before he got hurt in the playoffs like I I just you know what he did in the playoffs I think it's I think it's I think it could win 46 games you know with very little from choir potentially right like there's enough trend arrows pointing up on some of their key guys that it's pretty easy to be optimistic before you even get to they added a guy that's one of the five or 10 best players in the league whenever he's healthy I found when I was trying to I start out by saying what would be the case for me to go lower and I harped on choir's availability and then well what if they play there was talk about them playing a lot of CMB with y'all a hurdle I don't know what that looks like offensively and then if you're doing that it kind of takes away from one it takes away from one that how many

1:25:34minutes to CMB play with Kauai and Scotty Barnes and then it's also oh okay so if those two guys are on the court the next big that's going to regularly get minutes for this team is Trace Jackson Davis are you a are you a can I interest you in a Nate Biddle I don't so uh but this is all to say those they felt like micro concerns and with Kauai it's just you always have to kick in the health and I think if he a reasonable goal I would say is can he play in 57 to 60 games if that's what you're hoping for from him I think that they can get to 47 pretty easily which is what I have them penciled in for now if you tell if you just guarantee me he played in 65 I'm probably bumping them up to like 49 51 but I'm just not Kauai is such a wild card there because they have to look and think Zach Lowe's made this point like a trillion times now Kauai has not like played in a second round playoff series since 2020 or whatever right and so you that that is Toronto's end game after giving up what they did and then signing him to that extension as you want to play deeper

1:26:37than that I think they're going to meticulously manage his workload so but if you told me he played in 65 plus games I'm probably putting them in like 49 50 I think he's I think I feel good about him playing 50 games and I think for me that's still enough to hit the over here um I I just think I think there's enough guys I think there's enough potential for organic growth in the non Kauai division to to make me feel pretty good about it yeah I mean if you get a step forward from Jacoby Walter would be the one and even just you're right about the defense too is Jamal shed being on this team just like RJ at least has good positional size so yeah all right so we're both over here final team the Washington Wizards at 33 and a half grand okay so somebody's got to lose some games I like to start by noting that which we also use I also know that your own over underpick suggests that no they don't uh fair point fair point uh I'm going under I think that it's while it is intriguing to think about

1:27:46trea young and Anthony Davis kind of book ending a bunch of young guys I don't believe enough and trea youngs impact anymore or ability to stay healthy and I certainly don't believe in Anthony Davis staying healthy or being on this team for for for the whole season to offset the fact that in between those two guys is still a really young roster that has not played a meaningful basketball game yet in most cases that and so I like almost all of Washington's young players individually like I think Saur has real potential and obviously Kishan George the bans that I think is going to be great um less high on trade Johnson but I've heard enough podcast guests say the trade Johnson's actually better than that to to take that to heart I still just think there's I mean you kind of can treat a lot of these young guys as rookies in the sense that they are about to start playing games where people care about the outcome in the NBA for the first time in their lives and I think that's an adjustment period um 33 and a half is just high enough to where the wizards can almost double their win total and still hit the under say one like 17 last year so

1:28:51you know you oh they're going to add 12 more wins still comfortably under so that that's another word route that I go to get under here that your last point to me was the most compelling one where it's they could double their win total from last year and then it's still a question of oh is this they're still 34 yeah yeah this is also saying that I'm going over anyway there's more talent on this team there's a ton of depth whether it's coherent depth you could question that I think AJ DeBonza media day talking I really do try to take everything on media day with a grain of salt but him just mentioning that he's excited to play off the ball more because you see number one picks come in and sometimes their workload is too heavy if that's a mindset he's coming in with if they're even able to move tre young away from the ball or get them off the ball quicker as they did during the few appearances he made last season this team it just wouldn't shock me if they won in the 40s if you get reasonable availability from tre young and Anthony Davis Keeshaan George if he's well we know already good I don't know what they look like defensively

1:29:55if he owes as if they don't have that stopper aside from Balaoukoula Bali and do you want him on the floor if you if you need shooting what is AJ DeBonza look like as an off ball shooter so there are questions and the floor could certainly fall out beneath them there's also the rumor which I don't understand that they're interested in jow and dern a jow and dern side and trade they pull that off I probably feel worse about this team I honestly don't know but I think the path to them being under is clear but if I don't like if if Anthony Davis and tre young are each playing in 55 to 60 games is it still an under for you uh that makes it harder I think I think I am going under largely because I think that the the the real like disaster potential is fairly likely but if you said that what'd you say 65 games how many for both 50 to 55 to 60 yeah that's that's going to be hard for them to hit that under uh if that happens but I think I think one or both of them will not

1:30:56hit that number I think I think there's a reason to have serious questions about both the organization and the coach so that like those are factors that I'm that I like don't trust the organization anymore after what they do with tre young and keyf is the guy that like basically everybody thinks he's not a good coach it's just that there haven't been stakes to show that that's actually true right like I think at the consensus is he's regarded as not as one of the worst coaches in the league fair or not like okay prove let's see now because you have what kind of amounts to a real team minus the inexperience so I there's kind of like whether it's health whether it's the experience of the roster whether it's these big name guys not having it anymore coaching organs like there's a lot of ways for the under to materialize here I say all that while acknowledging if they won 45 games it would not be that hard to understand how that happened if I know that sounds like a totally wild swing from

1:31:57what I just said but I think we kind of both see what the breadth of the possible outcomes here right because I think you could just talk yourself into some of their base lineups being killer and when you just the way you fought the fiddle with the personnel that so I have them I don't have them much over I have them at 30 I have a 37 wins that's pretty comfortable you know many more wins you're over here different roster so not crazy but you don't really see those jumps but it's just I still think like the the process I wonder if the process behind how they have trade young under a contract poisons the well of perception of the team where it's they yeah out of their mind to do this therefore straight young isn't going to be good right well it's like a like the reason that I we both I think but especially me we're so out on Phoenix last year is because it's like these guys are idiots they don't know how to run a franchise and we didn't stop to think like spoiler alert that's the coaches good they all played hard and there's some some talent here it just it's more they still don't know how to run a franchise well they don't now but

1:32:59yeah listen I will not I'm gonna make the same mistake going under on the suns again by the way but it won't be a mistake this time man okay so you had you talked me into one extra under so now I've got six unders and nine overs that feels less egregious than five and 10 feels it about six nine seems okay I ended up having I did I change anything no so I had eight unders and seven overs so I was a pessimist which is you ridiculous it also really affected your numbers that you did the wind totals and were forced to be realistic about all these teams I'm sorry I have eight overs and seven unders welcome to the side of positivity they're really great there's splitting right down the middle though is so I like is I feel like this would have been room to be a nine six territory depending on how you feel about teams in the west to wrap up though what's your best bet slash pick so I'm having a hard time moving off of the Boston over is there anything else that really makes me feel calm I mean even that Boston

1:34:07one seems kind of wild to go over you talked me out of the Milwaukee over which for a minute there I was ready to put it in that kind of it went from your best bet yeah it was just look I was going to consider it can't be the sixers over that's ridiculous would you so would it help would it help if I gave you mine please I'm I was narrowing it down between Indiana and Miami okay I'm going to pick Indiana over 43 and a half is my best bet that's a low number that's a that's a really the only way you don't hit that is it is a halibur in injury I think which coming off in a kill these injury maybe isn't the far outside scenario well and and if I go Boston it's not like Tatum's in that different of a situation like they tore them you know pretty close in time originally are you thinking about the heat at all because I go about the honest injuries we're so many injuries with all these teams but oh hold on we're thinking about this all wrong clear path pal says bulls under feels pretty safe would not disagree would not disagree with that

1:35:11I'm sticking with Indy I'm gonna go to I'm gonna take the Boston over and I'm gonna go the bulls under if I had to add a second one I think that's great great call so my best over pick we could do it this way I'll go the pace or is 43 and a half my best under pick is it just the bulls you know you know what fuck it Charlotte under 38 what man how things have changed I thought you were a believer you well you were a believer in one guy and that guy's gone so I'm actually a believer in like most of the guys that are on the roster right now but this is just this is the penance that they will pay I like I was gonna say before you pick Charlotte like there's gotta be one of these teams with a high 30s low 40s that we've got to go under there's so many mid 40s you know what's your least confident selection I mean washing you know I'm probably Philly just because it's so like I had to really work hard to get there with the whole like how good is this team without 40% of their starting five yeah that gives me a lot of pause I think I mean I might have to say

1:36:19the Charlotte over is one I don't feel super confident in but I'm sticking to my guns I don't know just because I have them at 41 wins I'm gonna go with the hawks is my least confident pick because I could I you could talk me to them winning in the 30s too but I wouldn't if they just rip off a bunch of wins they have the depth and just like talent I don't know if it's high enough and talent though yeah what do you think I don't know how how we would go through this like what not what number feels like so close to right I guess this is just another way to frame the which what's the toughest decision you had but I think like like Toronto at 46 and a half it's like oh that feels because you I don't think you pick them to win 54 but you definitely don't pick them to win 38 it's just it's right in that range somewhere a lot of the teams in the mid 40s are really hard a Boston was so I had them at 51 Boston was that hard for me I think you could also make do you think to mix it 51 and a half is one or you sure that was yeah that was I mean I don't think they're going to win 42

1:37:22but but like 50 to win 52 after a title and you only won 53 last year I just like that was a pretty easy under for me while still again want to be clear I think they're the best the most likely team to be in the finals from East so you have anything else or are you ready to ready to get out no I think I think that'll do it thanks everybody for listening watching if you're in the chat really appreciate you no I was awesome thank you for the super chat again please remember to rate and review and subscribe until your friends and enemies and the best way to support the podcast as we remind you every time is to join our patreon patreon.com slash hardwood knocks NBA ad for you episodes or you do members own members only as well never plug that I'm bad about that too plug it plug that as well um with the patreon subscription ad for you episodes two bonuses every month discounts on merch access to our discord links for that the youtube podcast description of coverage you would like to support the podcast we appreciate your support that's the that's gonna do it we'll be back later this week

1:38:24with the uh western conference overunders and wind totals just to really uh me sharp yes I guess anchor myself to to numbers that I will be rooting for in against all season um yeah so that'll be fun uh talk to you guys next time shout frank milagena apologies Jared Allen