123: No Rescue

0:00Welcome in to this weekend Bitcoin episode 123. My name is Chris, Chris LAS dot com Jupiter broadcasting dot com. Well here we are. We just got done having some fun with cheap money and limitless AI optimism helping Bitcoin turn back around. And then this week those things started to peter out. They're both reversing just as an energy shock seems to be nipping at our feet with inflation. So it brings up the question, what happens when the Fed can't rescue the market, but they have to do something for their own credibility. They have to do something and how will Bitcoin respond to what is undoubtedly just going to add more pressure to the situation. That's why we started with macro.

1:08We got to start with energy this week. It seems to be the clear and present danger around the world and there have been recent developments that are reducing supply and causing people to panic about energy crisis. And I'm saying it apparently it's the oil executives. Oil right now pulling back a little still 103 on WTI Brent also pulling back slightly after hitting its highest level since May yesterday. Top oil executives now saying that the global fuel crisis is already here. The US strategic petroleum reserve hitting its lowest level since November of 1982. And President Trump now weighing the use of the Defense Production Act to boost refining capacity to help bring down energy costs. Okay, so that's the state of things and this next clip kind of gets into the military dynamics that led to the recent supply crunch. Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure under attack putting upward pressure on global energy prices and pressure on the White House to intervene.

2:09These satellite images show the critical Saudi east west pipeline before and after drone strikes. Saudi Arabia blaming Iran backed militia in Iraq. This comes as Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claim to control multiple strategic islands in the Red Sea and the port city of Mocha, expanding their ability to disrupt Saudi exports or any commercial shipping here in the Bob El Mendebs straight threatening a one to punch to global oil supply as Iran obstructs shipments in the state of Hormuz. President Trump saying this when asked if Iran is behind the strikes on the Saudi pipeline. I like the problem with Axios was first to report Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman personally called President Trump twice last week urging him to launch strikes on the Houthis. What a night. Any new aggression will be met with broader and more intense operations. Back in the U.S. the impact on drivers is getting more painful gas averaging $4.31 a gallon and diesel hitting another record high of 623.

3:12Yeah, diesel is the real problem boy I'd love to see $4.31 a gallon here in Washington. The cheapest is the tribal gas which is about $5.10 and diesel is easily another dollar more than that. And it's painful. Diesel is really the one of particular concern because we all know this everything basically goes up when diesel goes up. It's one of the key inputs to the economy because so many things move by diesel or involved with manufacturing a creation of food or housing etc etc. Diesel prices go up everything goes up and I've been saying now for a few weeks the longer this conflict has gone on the more the knobs of pressure get turned up on the energy market. The bond market gets harder to control. We've been witnessing that you know Buffalo Bessons just kind of pissing in the wind with his buybacks and the world economy ends up getting squeezed from both ends we get inflation and you get also the risk of stagnation. We are now in a total rock and hard place. And this is a total 180 from where we were back in February. This is Stephen Major.

4:14He brings up how much things have shifted since just before the conflict started. Back in February of this year before the war in this region started that was on the 27th of February. The yield on 10 year treasuries was below 4% and the market was implying three cuts. Here we are. Six, seven months later we've got 5% 10 year yields and three hikes. So one thing I would say is that you've had a six rate hike move in the space of six, seven months. That's 150 basis points. That explains the entirety of that 10 year yield shift and a bit more really. I think that a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds and it tends to talk about fiscal policy and the same breadth as being bearish and about the supply of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you. I just don't really see it. The term premium hasn't gone up. People have been claiming that it has. It has not gone up. You can see it on the blue boat terminal.

5:14The curve is flattened because it's been pricing in the rate hikes. Inflation expectations are controlled. Spot inflation is a bit higher. So I could see one hike and then next year we could we could be back into the easing mode. It's the wall in this region that has ruined the best late the best laid plans. The best laid plans. Who's best laid plant pants? Buffalo Besson, of course. He said he was the house and the market said, okay, sure. Hold my beer. The US 10 year yield has now hit its highest level since 2007. As we've seen it pass that handle we fly for you at the top of the program. 5.01.87. We're now at 502 on the 10 year. This is inflation fears linked to rising energy prices concerns, managing around government and corporate borrowing levels as well. All of these moves happening. This new milestone for the 10 year treasury yield as the Fed prepares to kick off its two day policy meeting. Market's pricing in an over 90% chance of a rate hike tomorrow

6:15and fully pricing in a second move higher by the end of this year. Let's bring in Van Ram across the asset structures of Bloomberg Amlife for more venue joining us out of Fertuitous moment. We just passed that highest moment since 2007. Talk us through the factors that drove us here and how significant it is going into that Fed meeting. Morning Stephen, good to be talking to you. So look, I mean, there's been a huge seismic shift in demand for funds, demand for capital investment capital fundamentally. Because if you rewind the tip back to the pandemic, we are at that time, most governments could raise funds at 0% or near there, but go on all those days. And remember, be not too far off the negative rates regime as well that prevailed just before the pandemic. Now we are in this situation where there is increasing demand for investment capital, whether it's AI-led binge or whether it's government's funding wanting to fund their deficits. The demand for capital is huge, whereas the supply of funds has remained more or less the same. So I think that's shifting up the equilibrium rate for funds, the neutral rate.

7:18So I think that's what is being on yields at the longer end of the cuff. Yeah, they love to speculate. They love to breathlessly speculate. But of course, raise rates they did. It is a rate increase. The first of a cycle, a unanimous decision to raise their benchmark rate, a quarter point to three and three quarters to four percent. 16 members of the committee anticipate another increase this year. Only two would hold here. Kevin Warsch, the chairman, does not submit a dot. Eight, almost half. See, another increase, another rate increase next year, while six call for no change. Four, see rate cuts in 2027. One of them calls for rates to fall to three and a quarter percent. Almost as significant, they raised their long run view. Essentially, the neutral rate to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in June. Who cares what they think, like any of that long term stuff matters? But let's get into the press conference for a few moments. This was Warsch's big moment because the question was,

8:21is what do you actually do it? Would he risk popping the AI bubble? Would he risk angering Trump? Would he actually raise rates? The bond market clearly wanted him to do it. He walked out there and he kind of gave us his summary of their thinking. Good day. In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to three and three quarters to four percent. In support of the federal reserve's dual mandate, the committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the bank system. As noted in the policy statement released just a short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. In part to geopolitical developments, A.K.A. the conflict with Iran. Warsch says that the key issue really though came down to just inflation being too high for too long.

9:25Yet for more than five years, inflation has been running above target. So our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long. It's almost a meme at this point, but Warsch loves to go on about how he's different than J-POW. This regime doesn't give forward guidance. We don't want to distort the signal from the market. We need to be able to read with the markets telling us and not have us influencing the market. We don't give forward guidance. He goes on about it all the time. We don't do it. This won't surprise you. I'm not in the forward guidance business. No. The decision we made today was a sober decision, serious decision, responsible decision, one that we have been preparing for and thinking about in my 110 or 20 days here. You know, he doesn't give forward guidance. And yet throughout this press conference, he implied over and over again that what he said a couple of months ago at Jackson Hole

10:31was basically forward guidance. Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline, not to a decision. I define the standard for action. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied. The committee's unanimous vote shows our resolve to achieve price stability on a time-lear basis. We aim to ensure that credit and financial conditions are consistent over time with our mandate that relative price changes in some sectors of the economy do not broaden. That inflation compensation in market prices stays low. And that inflation expectations remain well anchored. So what he's saying here is this is what I told you at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. And look, now I'm coming, I'm following through on what I told you.

11:34That is forward guidance. And then he did it again. There's been a pretty wide ranging set of data, including the labor markets that the economy has strengthened. You might have heard me say that in Jackson Hole a few weeks ago. It's a judgment that I have and the committee has. Second, inflation trends. I said in Jackson Hole, trends matter. I said in Jackson Hole, we need to look outside the window and interrogate reality. So we're going to play this game. We're going to play this game where he's going to sit there and tell you to your face that he doesn't do forward guidance. That you're silly for thinking he does forward guidance. He's not in the business of forward guidance. And then he's going to tell you what I just told you previously was forward guidance. And if you followed it, you knew where we were going. I hate these games. I hate these games. And I hate all the ceremony around a 25 basis point rate increase. All of it is ridiculous. It's like it's it's just it's just such an old system. And I find it so tire tireism. And it's the new face of it. He's not as good of an actor as

12:34the previous face. The previous face was a much better actor. But Bitcoin didn't really seem to mind too much. It kind of shrugged off the rate hike. I think it was already priced in. Much like it seems the clarity act was. So this is kind of the other macro thing going on for Bitcoin this week. For some reason, for a brief moment, the crypto lobby felt like this week was their moment in time to get the clarity act moving again because the Senate was returning from break and they saw a window of opportunity. And they seemed to feel like it was going to happen. Box Business countdown is on for the vote on the clarity act. The bill clarifies federal rules and regulations for digital currencies and tokens and divides oversight between the securities and exchange commission and the CFTC. The Senate's procedural vote on the bill is set for tomorrow at 2 15 PM Eastern this after months and months and months of. You know, the hype is real when they have a countdown clock on screen 22 hours 49 minutes 38 seconds until clarity act vote. The hype is real set for

13:42tomorrow at 2 15 PM Eastern this after months and months and months of grappling and arguing. So it needs 60 yes votes to advance to a full Senate vote. Last night, Republican Senators sweetened and tweaked ethics and banking provisions in order to broaden bipartisan support and quill democratic opposition. Crypto exchange coinbase has been front and center in pushing Congress to support the landmark bill. On the eve of the test of the Clotter vote shares right now are up nearly 10 percent. First on Fox Business Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins who live to game out the chances of passage tomorrow. Brian, there are 53 GOP Senators and for passage, all Republicans would need to be on board along with seven additional Democrats. All right. So spoiler alert, we know the clarity act did not pass or did not pass closure. So as we watch the remainder of this clip, which I'm not going to play much more of, let's try to analyze what Brian miscalculated here. Where did Brian miscalculate? And let me know what you think. What are you hearing about how members are

14:46lining up? Well, pretty optimistic that we're going to get more than 60 votes tomorrow. There's been thousands of hours of work put in by both sides of the aisle over the last few years to get to a really good bipartisan work product. And it's time that we finally got some clear rules in America for crypto for consumer protection to give new tools to law enforcement to ensure that the future of the financial system can actually be built here in America under the US regulatory perimeter. So this vote tomorrow is a massive moment. We're going to see who's in favor of American leadership in finance and who's against it. So there's no do overs. Well, that's true, but you never know until it actually happens. Oh boy, wasn't she right? You know, and you know, I think the reason I he maybe this could be one read is I think he thought they had really made all the compromises necessary. The original House bill was 257 pages long. Then the Senate committee got to work. They started doing a negotiations with the Democrat caucus in July of 2026. The merged updated

15:48text went to 616 pages. And then the September draft that we just got like 48 hours ago before the closure vote was 635 pages. The vast majority of that I'm Bry Ran it all through Groc. The vast majority of that is contributions by the Democrat participants. They were it was additions that they wanted a lot around KM KML or what is it? Not KIC, but AML anti-money laundry and those types of things. And then of course the ethics provisions and things like that. It seemed like they also came to some kind of understanding around stablecoin yields. I think Brian gets a lot of flack for that because he fought for that back in January, but they did seem to come to some sort of understanding around stablecoin yields. Not quite as ideal as what Armstrong wanted, but they got an understanding with the banks. That was something, but they never really got through the ethics stuff. I mean, they kind of did on paper, but the next day the clarity act went for a vote and it failed to move forward. John Stoltzus, we just got breaking news. The US Senate has voted 50 to 49 against

16:56advancing that crypto regulatory bill, the Clarity Act. We just had Brian Armstrong of Coinbase on yesterday. He said he was very positive about it. Looks like this has not passed. They needed 60 votes. There are 53 Republican senators. They needed seven Democrats. We're not sure of the breakdown, but some Republicans may have been against this. Let's take a look at Bitcoin. It is falling three full percentage points now or $2,596 to $76,042. Really retreating from the 81,000 that was some high that it made. No, the Warren types, they gave their speeches that they always do that didn't really make sense because they say things that just aren't true about the bill. But the more nuanced arguments, I think, were out there as well. Even when I listen to those, I don't really think they add up. I don't think the reasons to vote against Clarity add up. And I say that as somebody who I really couldn't give a crap if Clarity passes or not. I don't

17:58think it really matters to Bitcoin along when I've talked about that in previous episodes. But objectively looking at this, I think the Democrats played Lumbus and her friends. They played them for more than a year and they got so many compromises in this thing. And then they used it as essentially a weapon in the midterms and they all voted against it anyways. So I'm not buying the reason they're putting out there because to me, it looks like political strategy and not so much about the ethics stuff. I am one of the lead sponsors of the Clarity Act that was also there on Genius because I believe that this is an industry that absolutely positively has to be regulated and has to protect consumers. I've been very clear all along that, you know, there is no way that we're going to put our head in the sand and pretend that crypto isn't here. We have close to 70 million Americans who already own cryptocurrency. So it's very important that we regulate this industry. And I've been clear about that all along. We also have to make sure that innovation continues to grow. But what we must do when I was clear about this is have very clear ethics in place to

19:03prevent the grift and the corruption that we have seen from this administration from growing. I was abundantly clear that I would never support a proposal that allowed the president to continue the grift and the corruption without being checked. It's a very sad thing that they just didn't have the moral fortitude to hold this president accountable for the grift and corruption. Divestment is what was required. I was also very clear that we wanted to make sure that the Department of Justice was not the sole enforcer of violations that we wanted to have. The state attorneys' generals are able to do that enforcement as well if the Department of Justice because we've seen they have become a complete joke making sure they're so unserious we wanted to make sure we had that additional protection. Sacrifice the I guess a perfect for I don't know. This is about Trump and we're not going to get a clarity act passed. The overall crypto as important as it all is you and Democrats are willing to hold it back to true point about Trump's

20:05corruption. That is what's happening. And I hope their plan is once they win the midterms to get around to turning this thing around and making it their bill because otherwise they're blowing a massive massive situation up over small ball politics. And the massive situation that they're blowing up isn't consumer protection. It isn't the anti-mondering stuff that's all going to make it worse. The treasury needs a domestic buyer for their debt. Badly, very, very badly. And we have a bunch of dopes running the country that don't realize what they're what they're playing with here. Or if they do, they're just maniacs. So it's like it's like it's like it's either they they they want to hit take a shot at Trump so bad that they're willing to risk the bond market, especially at a moment when we don't really have enough buyers. It's like clear that we don't have enough buyers. And they're willing to or they don't understand

21:07the situation and they don't understand what they're voting on. And I just don't know which one of those two things it is. And the things they do say about it like the divest your stuff. Well, the way it goes right now is he either has to divest or it goes into a trust. But the reality is he's made his money. The money he made was from a pump that no longer exists. He cashed out and he made the bulk of the money from selling a company not from selling the coin. He sold the stablecoin made him a ton. That's where he made the bulk of the money was in selling a corporation. So this whole thing is just really, really weak. And what ends up happening now is there's no ethics provision, right? There's no rules. And it is seemingly the genius, the genius act is now the law of the land. So the stablecoin protections that the bank wanted for stablecoin yields also don't exist now. So the banks don't get their protections. And there's no ethics provisions at all as a result. So this is a really, really, really big blunder. But they'll be able to spin it as a fight against Trump that they want. And that's all that matters. But as if to toss a bone to a starving dog,

22:13house, U.S. Chairman, fresh hill, I think his name is. I'm sorry. I don't really follow the their names too closely. And this they end up making, unless they end up for some reason showing up in the show multiple times. But it's Congress, Congressman Hill, I think he might be in the clip here. He's introducing the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill into Congress as of today, which to me, looks like it's a bill to codify what Trump has done as an executive order around holding Bitcoin. We will also bring for consideration today, HR 89 57, the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026, introduced by Congressman Begich from Alaska. This bill establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a separate, separate digital asset stockpile within the Department of Treasury for federally held Bitcoin and other digital assets that the government has acquired through justice and law enforcement efforts, seizure, criminal or civil forfeiture. Yeah.

23:16This is a common sense measure that brings digital assets held across a variety of federal agencies under the careful custody of the U.S. Treasury consistent with oversight, strengthening the security, transparency and accountability of these now government-hilled assets. It'd be interesting to see why this one wouldn't be able to pass. I mean, it's just really codifying something they're already doing. Okay, I got a question for you. Do you think we're done with the Clarity Act or will it be back with a new name next year? Personally, I hope it's dead. I really do. I don't think we need it. Let it go. I liked the developer protections that were in there for some things, but I want to know what you think, though. Do you think we'll get a little ninja return? It'll have a new name and it'll be a Democrat bill. I don't know, next year. Boost in and tell me what you think's going to happen with that. Just because I think the whole thing is it's some sort of game that we've all been getting strung along. Feels like that's what this whole thing. This the whole last year was just all play in politics.

24:19I don't want it. Tell me what you think. Boost. You put a broadcasting.com. Well, you can support the show by doing what you do. If you want to buy, sat on the river, use my link in the notes. The Bitcoin, well, the great way to stack sat in the USA and Canada and they don't hold the wallet you do. It's a self-custody platform for you, not them. Then if it's time to sell, sell, hmm, yeah, I guess you can consider that. If you want to get something with a gift card and you want to go sats to gift card, the Bitcoin company.com link in the notes brand new look on their website. You can log in with lightning. You go sats to gift card in just seconds. I wanted to buy a blueman onion for the wife or her birthday. I went and looked it up. They got four different ways you can get a blueman onion with sats on the Bitcoin company. The fold card. You want to pay your bills and stacks ats. You got to pay them anyways. Myzl stacks ats fold card. Then salt lending strike.

25:20Both of those great ways to get access to your Bitcoin without selling it via their lending options links to that in the notes as well. No official relays. But if you use those links supports me and I've used those companies so far, so far I haven't gotten rugged. So links to that in the show notes support the show by doing what you do. And now it is time for the boost. Let's do some boost. Okay, let's do some boost. You guys that's how the show keeps on going. It's a value for value podcast. I got no sponsor came that close to having called card be a sponsor and then I was like, I don't know about that. My instinct is like, I don't know about that value value. And then boom, everything blew up. So here we are. We're value value ride or die as far as I can tell. And right now we're surviving. And J.Cube helps us do it with 65,000 sets. I hold that which will kind of comfort. Boom. Thank you, J.Cube for being our baller. Do to be in a hurry. I will opt out for the boost boost. I will opt

26:26for a boost boost. Oh, you're going to opt for it. I see how it is. You're going to opt for the most select most prized boost sound effect. You're just going to opt for it. I see a top apologies for the lack of proper discourse. You know what? I'm going to give it to you, J.Cube for being our baller. But boost boost boost boost boost. There you go. We're going to give it to you for being the baller. Thank you sir. Appreciate you. Thank you for being our baller booster. Just a hotdog came in with 26,000 sets. Just a hotdog rights long time listener first time booster hope the sickness fades. Awesome. I can show. Thank you for doing that. And I'm like 87%. Can you hear it a little bit? I'm like 87%. But it's like that last 10 to 15% that because I don't stop working, I think will probably last three times, three times longer than it should. It's okay. It only affects my ears and the way I sound and the taste of food. But I'm all right. Thanks just how I should

27:28complain. I really am okay. As my grandpa says, I can't complain. Derivation Dengus comes in with 23,924 cetotis. Oh my god. This drawer is full of broodloats. I forgot to boost last week, but a couple of episodes ago, someone mentioned that a live ISO might not have enough entropy to safely cray waltz. I researched this before building mine. And with a modern kernel, it's basically a non-issue using Git random is recommended because it blocks until there is enough entropy. That's right. That's right. There are two ways to get random numbers via the Linux kernel. And one of them will block until it has sufficient entropy. That is true. So make sure you're using the Git random function because it blocks until there's enough entropy. And you configure the kernel to be even more conservative about what entropy sources it trusts to harden things further. Stay safe out there. That's a great boost. That's a great boost. Thank you very much. Appreciate that derivation. Good tips. And yeah, we did do a Linux unplugged on that. And that's a lesson learned.

28:29It used to not block. And so you could just get random numbers that were not sufficiently random back. And applications would just continue right along. Lovedown Babylon comes in with 21,337 satosis. You're doing very well. Hi, sir. Luke's lot here. Hello, lurks. You Adam Curry and others inspired me to start my own podcast. Lovedown Babylon. My first episode drops to do. Via fountain. A multifaceted show about personal healing technology, inspiration, big ideas, and changing the world. By the way, 21,337 is a elite satoshi boost. That is very, very true. Thank you for helping us. Help you help us all. And congratulations on getting the show launched. A lovedown Babylon. Check it out on fountain FM. OB comes in and it's good to hear from you, lurks. OB comes in with 21,000 sats. Sorry for your loss. That sucks. Pregnial. Get it back. Less is more. Recap Wednesday show is a great reference to emergency pods. Ah, thank you. Yes, still no movements on the peg out. The liquid network is moving again, but the peg outs have not been

29:33resumed. Let's hope the price doesn't crash in the meantime. Barely going to get by with the skin of my teeth on this one, I think boys. Thank you very much, though. Thanks for thinking of Gene Beans here with 9,444 satoshi's. It's over 9,000. Here's a get well soon. Sats combined with a few. How did I forget to boost last week? Please do cover the liquid stuff. As for when an emergency podcast is warranted, my threshold would be when there's something actionable. That's what I was thinking, Gene. If there's nothing I needed to actually do with the time since the window, then it could just wait for the normal show. I'd also combine them to when not taking action is likely to have negative financial impact. Yeah. Raises a bunch of uncomfortable questions is code for I've never been a broken money. I've never read broken money and have no idea how this stuff really works. I forget what who said that, but yeah, that does sound like the code for that. Thank you, Gene. Good to hear from you. The Alistrix is here with 15,000 Sats. Since feel better, Chris. Thank you. I am feeling better.

30:35Ish, I am feeling better. Ish, thank you. Phillip is back with 2026 Sats. This is a tasty burger. No mess. He's just value. Thank you, Phillip. Good to hear from you. Nakamoto 6102 is here with 5,021 Sats. Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days. Thank you for the value, no need for emergency episode unless it's something immediately impacting my security of funds. Yeah. That makes sense. That makes sense. It's a good guy. He's a real good guy. No, he's a great guy. Yep. I agree with you on that. User 26 is here with 2,112 Sats. Axelrod Snot Boost. You're emergency broadcast regarding the cold card, with spot on and appreciate it. But I don't know if your model would be and what the model should be, but if there's value and a timely update from a sober voice like yours, cheers. Thank you. Well, there you go. Appreciate that. Ace Acrimons here with a row of ducks. 2,222 Sats. The Fed holds steady on interest rates. No need for emergency pods, just continue great reporting on After Effects. They did not. They did not. I, you know what, though, I kind of felt like they would. Although a 25 basis points

31:40raise isn't going to mean much. If they keep doing it, though, that's another story. It does make everything a little bit harder for the White House and the situation with Iran. It does, I think, make the bond market feel a little bit better for a minute, though. I'm glad. Thank you. Thank you, but Ace. You get Ace. You get credit for putting yourself out there. Great jobs are a round of applause for you. Thank you. Hey, Ace. Good to hear from you. Redbeard Jake is here with a row of ducks. I got here from the Vance Grow podcast. Twib is no agenda for Bitcoin. Thanks. Wow, that's quite the compliment. Shout out to Vance. And I'll settle for being the best podcast in the solar system if I can get away with that. Thank you, Redbeard. Cronkodonk, the doggo comes in with 4,444 Sats. He's out looking up for all my duck. Thanks for fighting signal while you were sick. Appreciate you. Thank you. It does mean a lot. Magnolia Mayhem's here with 2,999 Sats.

32:42This show has the best artwork. You think? Thank you, Mayhem. I appreciate that. Gosh. Derivation Dinkus is here with a row of ducks. Almost forgot to make a prediction. I think the fat holds. Oh, man, another one. Me too. Oh, man. Bring up the holy hand grenade. I think we all got that one wrong. I mean, I started to be fair. I did, I don't know if this is true for some of you too. I started changing my probability probably about Monday, especially as the situation started getting worse with energy in the bond market. I'm like, okay, well, now the market, see what happened is the market kind of forced his hand a little bit. The market sort of is like, if you don't do this, we don't think you're legitimate. And so if he didn't do it, it would have been a disaster for them. I mean, I'm not here to sit here and play Fed Whisper, but that is a fascinating, he really had no choice. It's crazy. I just don't like my, but my meta takeaway from all of it is I cannot

33:43believe we are subject to the system. Thank you, Derivation. Orange might be here with 5,000 Sats. The traders love the ball. No message, just value. Thank you very much. Read BTCs back with 2,142 Satoshi's. You're supposed. Excellent fiat system weather report. I pay attention to the legacy financial system like I pay attention to the weather. It doesn't change anything long term, but it's nice to know when a storm is coming. That's a good way to think about it. Yeah. Yeah. And again, like Bitcoin is your crop, right? It's your harvest and you want to protect your crop and your harvest and you want to know when it's the right time to buy more or not, especially if you take any kind of leverage in a kind of loan. Nice one, Reed. I like that. You make me want to be a better man. Ripcord is here with 2,000 Sats. Everything's under control. Keep up the great work. Thank you, Ripcord. Appreciate the boost. Sleaks? Sleaks? That's a thing. Every time. Every, it just me every time. Come through with 9,999 Sats.

34:44I have to disagree with Lynn Alden's nothing stops his train thesis. Clown car feels more accurate. Nothing stops the clown car, huh? Yeah. The reason why she goes with the train, I think, is just because the size and weight of it, you know? And everybody knows what a train wreck looks like. Thanks, Sleaks. Appreciate you sticking out my horrible butchering of your username. Can you be Bitcoin guides here with 5,432 Satoshi's? That's not possible. Nothing can do that. Hey, Chris, I love the thumbnails. A little hidden Easter egg in each episode. Nice touch. What two are you using to make them? It's sort of like a process of elimination, right? Because as I'm working on the show, I have an agent called number one and she's dedicated to helping me produce the show. And I'll iterate on the ideas because as I'm working through the show, I'm always kind of working through the thread and sort of the macro theme. I'm building pictures throughout the week of that mentally and then trying to translate that into a picture. And so I'll come up with a couple of themes and ideas. And then the machine can send that off to a couple of like the one I'll go through

35:48first because it's cheapest as mini max. And I can kind of get most the way there. And then if mini max doesn't get me there, usually like a chat GPT. We'll do it. They have, so they've just recently improved their image generation or like do a pass on it. It sort of bounces it back and forth. The real true answer is there is not one path. Every week, I'd say it changes and my options change. So it's kind of like rolling just rolling with the punches on it, but I've been having fun with it because I'm generating the artwork from sort of the same threads. I'm iterating on the ideas. And what my agent does is like, I'll be like, it's the agent assumes I'm wrong about everything. Numbers, names, dates, amounts. If a thing actually happened or not. So I'll be like, you know, the threads raising rates this week and the agent has to then go fact check that. Yeah, okay. Yep. Yep. I see. This is actually supported. So as we sort of, we work together to develop that out, that ends up feeding into the artwork. So it kind of comes directly from the DNA.

36:48It's in its DNA. So I hope that answers your question, Kiwi. Texans here with 2,1112 Satoshi's. No message, just value. Thank you very much. Appreciate that. BTC Needless here with 2,100 Sats. I wonder if I got that right. I don't know about that, but I like it. Okay, here we go. So Madoo Cafe at 5805, Uork Boulevard in Highland Park, Los Angeles is accepting Bitcoin payments via the square POS terminal. A cafe, huh? In Los Angeles. Love it. We should give more reports like this. If I'm ever in the area, I will go there and I will buy something with some Sats. Thank you, BTC Needless. Nice to hear from you. A bliterator $9.18 Cent in $25 of Fiat. I hoard that which you're kind of covered. Too bad at all. With all the self-custody a custody entropy and sidechain chaos going on lately, I'd like to remind everyone that Satoshi's original stacks still sits with the simple SIG P2PK with Rob Publiki's visible to all and

37:54hasn't budged besides a few cents a hell. Bitcoin's fine. Boosty, Mick Booster's so. Boost! I love that common sense right there coming in. Thanks, Dad. Thank you, bliterator. We got a free member's boost. Yes, if you're a Jupiter party member, you can boost an episode per episode once for free. At verse 317, Boosted, I think a good threshold for an emergency episode is if there's any user action required and if it's a critical issue. Like for the cold card vulnerability action was required, emergency episode required. For the liquid hack, there was nothing we could do as users, no emergency episode required. I agree, I think the one thing that I was thinking about the liquid is if you had a significant amount of funds in there, you might like to at least know what's going on. But the benefit of waiting until the scheduled episode was I had a couple of days to collect more information. And so that was because you couldn't take immediate action, I decided to instead to wait to give you more information. And so that I think that's yeah, I think that's a good land spot. Thank you everybody.

38:56I appreciate the feedback and I like it. We're all on. I'm sorry, I'm proud to have a lot. Appreciate that members boost too. All right, let's break it all down. Let's summarize it up. Let's see, we had 23 of you stream sets as you listen to the podcast and collectively, you all stream 39,000 and 70 sats. You're doing very well. Not bad. Thank you very much. When you bring it all together, you take our fiat boost and you can bring it at current market sat rates. That brings our total this episode to 332,525. That to me feels like we're getting pretty close to a pretty good amount. If you break it down to an hourly rate, figure this episode probably took me about 12ish hours on the median. It may be more, maybe less, probably more. It's sort of like where I figure like, okay, you know, current means not living on that, but future me might. So I appreciate that amount right there. That's kind of where I break it down in my head. And I really do appreciate the support because this show really I want, I want this show to be able to go for as long as we possibly can and document this journey that we are on. And it's going to take, it's going to take

39:58just a putting your head down to the grindstone and pushing forward both for me and from you as an audience as we learn and just things continue to develop, especially with the midterms coming up, going into the end of the year. And then who really knows what next year looks like, but it feels like the possibilities for Bitcoin over there in 2027, both good and bad are absolutely endless. So my goal is to keep the show going. I do need your support for that. boost.ubitabricastying.com is one way to do just a one off contribution. I like that because not only does it get a message on the show, it's if it's above 2000 sats, but it also is a signal. It's a signal that I can use later on. It's a signal I can use during the week. It's something I do look at to decide what episodes perform the best as far as the audience is concerned and all of that. And it's something that matters more to me than downloads or something like that. Memberships are also a great way to just put your support on autopilot, Jupyter.party for the membership for all the shows or there is a membership option just for the show in fountain FM. Heck yeah, everybody who supports the pod, I guess I don't usually say that. The pod, the pod, the pod cast. You're doing

41:02very well. No, no, but I do really do sincerely appreciate it and I hope we just keep on going. And it wouldn't be great if here we are in a year or so looking back at things like these rate hikes and go, remember how we all thought that was going to be such a big deal. Let me tell you why it wasn't. In the meantime though, I do think there's something that's kind of a big deal that we should talk about. I think I was early in the community to say the AI pump is directly tied to the market liquidity. The Bitcoin needs to be successful. The US economy needed the AI pump and anybody who was watching the way this thing played out originally saw where this is going. The big tech companies have been responsible for the market pumps for the last few and this was their latest and biggest pump and the economy needed it more than ever and the total near focus

42:03that the economy took for a while and AI has meant that not only do we have this massive liquidity black hole that we have built up, but it's responsible for a considerable portion of GDP growth in the country. So what happens when the AI pump starts to be sabotaged from within? Let's begin this hour with a new demand to slow the growth of artificial intelligence from the top ranks of the AI industry. Anthropic CEO Dario Amade says one of his biggest concerns is AI's ability to improve itself and build its own next versions. He says if left unchecked AI could quote, outrun our ability to understand and control these systems. Other industry leaders, such as Sam Altman and Elon Musk agree with him. In an interview with Jolene Ken for CBS Sunday Morning, Amade admitted the industry has not always told the truth about the dangers of AI. Listen, this has been an interesting little back and forth because a couple of months ago, the narrative was the industry has been too negative Dario has been too negative. He's freaked everybody out. We

43:04need to reverse messaging and you saw even Sam Altman kind of walk it back a little bit and say we were probably too pessimistic. Now I'm kind of thinking it's going to be an error of abundance. That was just a couple of weeks ago. Now we're back to we haven't been telling you enough how it's going to kill everyone. District has not always told the truth about the dangers of AI. Listen, in terms of the dangers of the technology, I won't lie to you. There are real dangers and I think for too long the industry lied to people about the fact that this technology had risk. The idea was that they would present it as positive as problem. We've never done that but too much of the industry did that. Nothing is new here. Nothing, which is why it's not really moving the market. And why do it silly the narrative around the whistleblower had to leave to get the message out there that then the CEO is willing to go on every single morning program and say exactly what the whistleblower said. And so it starts with telling the truth. Yeah. So what could an AI slow down mean for the economy

44:08and the markets? CBS News Business Analyst Jill Slesinger is here. Good morning. Good morning. All right. So what impact has AI had on the economy up until now? And how could that change if these leaders decide to slow the development? I think that it is pretty stunning to hear a leader say like, oh my god, we've been lying to you. But trust me now. So I think there's a little dubious part of this. But when you look at AI growth, there's sort of two parts of it. One is the buying of the AI services and the other is the build out of these big data centers. And according to economists, this is accounted for about a third to a half of US growth last year, this year going into next year. So if that is going to be pulled back, we could see growth slow down. Yeah. Yeah, you could. If it's nearly responsible for half of GDP growth, yeah, you're going to see growth slow down. And writing on that AI pump has been that annoying debt to GDP ratio, the better the GDP, the better the ratio, the worse the GDP, the worse the ratio and the worse that plan to grow our

45:10way out of that debt goes. If the AI pump slows down, there's no growing out of that debt, not to mention the investors that get rug just three months ago, there was talk about them being five trillion dollar companies when SpaceX was trying to IPO. Now we're talking about slowing things down with slowing things down also probably means less profits. Well, maybe it could actually mean some rent seeking as well. It seems like a long shot to me, but all of this would likely slow down investment. If that well, it's not a long shot. It's a real possibility at this moment. It seems like a real possibility that all of this could slow down investments that would result in an overall economy slowdown. And if nothing else, a slow down in the IPO's big and small. What we heard over the weekend from Anthropics CEO and how others have responded, Leslie Picker has a look at how these safety concerns are impacting the AI IPO pipeline, but we'll start with you, Kate. Good morning. Hey, Carl. Good morning. So Anthropics CEO Dario Amadeh shocked the tech world with

46:15this essay on Saturday, the CEO proposed a three step plan aimed at really tempering how fast the most powerful AI models are going to be improving. It does include a situation where you'd have third party evaluators. He talks about safety standards and an international coordination as part of this Amadeh has argued for safety in the past, but all of this is taking on a new urgency. He talks about that urgency given some of the recent panic around the risk of this technology at all snowballed. Last week, we talked a lot about this after Anthropic researchers tweeted about the existential risk and then talked about AI labs quote gambling with our lives. The two new concerns that Amadeh flags, he talks about AI developing a lot faster than expected and then examples and one example in particular of open AI agents hacking into the startup Hugginface. He called those AI agents a fanatically devoted collective. I'm not sure why he's choosing to use language like that. The Hugginface breach shows us a couple of things. It shows us that open AI didn't have proper

47:16network isolation. They were using a proxy. They weren't using a proxy. They weren't using a proper sandbox and the sand quote unquote sandbox. They did have had a proxy to have an internet connection. Number two, Hugginface has a massive security problem because the way that Hugginface was accessed was these agents found public API keys and access Hugginface using valid API credentials. So this wasn't like some sort of cyber swarm that was manipulating its way into hacking Hugginface's infrastructure so much as it found legitimate API keys and then it used the API. Dario knows that. Dario understands how this technology works. He's choosing to use language that makes it sound scarier. He's choosing to use language that demonizes it. And if you want my take, all of this is getting a little hysterical. It's getting a little like COVID again where there is these experts that are coming out that is freaking certain people out and you're seeing certain political leaders

48:18take advantage of that, especially around elections to really spin everyone up. And Fox Business has their making money program with Charles on it. He points out that we're kind of seeing another boom around the AI boom and AI adjacent boom, which is a network of people and companies that are making money off of AI Dumerism, some of whom have direct financial ties to Anthropic. Money. All right, so an interesting session, right? Of course, we're going to give you my take on a few things, but the AI boom or doomsday boom, I should say it continues. It's actually shifting into a sort of overdrive here, media overdrive, stoking affairs, of course. Here's your latest cover, Time magazine. There's one such thing about this. So they put the abide, some of the writers down here to these writers, those associate with Tarbell Center. You're not familiar with it. It's an AI doom organization. It's controlled by Dustin Moskovitz. Okay, who is he? A major investor in Anthropic. He was a major donor to Kamala Harris. Are you connecting these dots, folks? In fact,

49:22in a past year, Tarbell bylines have appeared five times in time, not counting this cover, and that was 19% of the AI story. So automatically, it's going to come from this AI doom point of view. They also got a position 33% of the dispatches, AI stories, 26% of the law fair stories. It only underscores that this is very much a political campaign as much as anything else. Now, to be sure, investors have always fredded about the downside and adventures have always worried about their creation. We'll get to the downsides. I'd like to know, who do you think is benefiting from AI doom orism like this? Who benefits from screwing up the economy, screwing up a pump and screwing up jobs? And, you know, here's my take on the AI thing. I think AI is like a great tool. I think it's a fantastic accelerator. Steve Jobs called the computer a bicycle for the mind. I think AI is a motorcycle for the mind. It's an incredible force multiplier. And I'm all for it,

50:24especially local local open source AI. That's I am so excited about the possibilities there. And I think we're really just at the starting line. I think in years we'll look back and we'll think it was quaint that we use so much markdown and that we didn't use like something more structured and more token efficient for these machines, something built for these machines and all these kinds of little things that we don't even think about now. We're just beginning to figure out some of that workflow. And the open source models are just getting better and better. I've been listening to people say they've canceled their open AI and cloud subscriptions and they just pay for deep seek a version four flash as they need it on demand. And it's like 2% of the cost. So why not? So I think the models as a five trillion dollar business were never going to be very viable. And I think Darios never run a company before. This is his first time as a CEO. And now he has this trillion dollar company, this two trillion dollar company he's responsible for. Sam Altman's been

51:27the CEO of one other company that was essentially just soaking VC funds and never really intended to be successful. And now he's running a trillion dollar company. And I think they're freaking out that they sold this thing and it's not something that's actually capable of what they have sold it. Not not it is not a matter of capabilities. Tech wise, it's a matter of capabilities profit wise, money wise, because the model is getting commoditized by China, by open source models. It'll be by Nvidia. I mean, all of this is happening just a week after the Nvidia hugging face announcement, where Nvidia went all in on open source. So it seems to me that there's no putting that monkeys pop back in the bottle. Open source AI is here. Face torrents just launched hugging face alternative that uses torrents to distribute models. So now you've got torrents for open source models and weights. We're just getting started here. There's nothing open AI or inthropic can do about that. And it's going right at their business. And it doesn't mean they don't have a business. But it probably means

52:31they don't have a five or 10 trillion dollar business. And at one point, anthropic was talking about being the only company in existence. I don't think they got that. It's way more likely I'm going to run on meter day. I for 85 90% of my jobs. And I'll send 10% of my workload up to the fancy frontier models for whatever fancy thing they're offering at that time that my local model is yet to offer. That's their business case. And that ain't a five to 10 trillion dollar company, right? They all need to be the size of Microsoft within five years. And I think they're looking at this going, we can't do that. But if we all slow down for safety, we at least save face. We save face to the world, to China, and to the investors. We save a little face because we're being responsible. Look, we've just figured out how to develop the automobile. And now we need all to agree how to make the automobile safe. That'll be better for everyone in the long term. That's the spin. That's why we're going this route. That's why they're using this narrative. It also happens to work fantastically

53:32for some of their investors politics. But that's an aside. And so I think it's interesting that I'm not the only one thinking this way. And that Bloomberg seems to be giving air time to individuals that also are going down this line of thinking question. We spoke about a couple of months ago when I was last on things have gone from bed to worse. And let's just step back for a second because there's so much day to day volatility. This announcement, that release, et cetera, et cetera, most recently all this stuff over the weekend. I mean, Tom, I'll think about this. You have a commodity that's deflating at like record speed with debt that's being built up at record speed. Like what could possibly go wrong? Okay. So every day, you know, every week, it's another model that comes out. And then the Chinese could do it for 95% off. And now there's noises about, you know, Trump maybe he's going to ban Chinese AI, whatever. As we said last time, I think this is going to be the biggest misallocation of capital in history. When people say is it worsethin.com,

54:36not as bad as calm history rhymes. It doesn't repeat. I read something interesting the other day. Not original thought. I felt this fellow put it brilliantly. He said, you know, this AI thing, it's kind of reminds him. It's kind of like if you if you took dot com, emerged it with the great financial crisis, I all the Ponzi finance schemes of housing, it's kind of what you got. Oh, boy. So what aren't you buying here? I guess in terms of the concept of AI, one, I mean, I think we're all kind of an assayable. We're trying to every day learn a little bit more what this means, what it actually is. To me, it just feels like what we're talking about five years ago, which was big data. And it's just another term, but I've been told no, no, no, this is a new way of computing. This is a new way of processing information. And it requires a tremendous amount of computing a power, which requires a tremendous amount of capital. And that's kind of what you got to get your head around. You're not buying that? No, we all use AI. I use AI. People servicely attack me on sub stack and X because oh, you use AI. Yeah, I like AI. Okay. Doesn't mean it's a good

55:40good investment. It's like, you know, Peter always talk about, you know, the difference between the product and the stock, right? The question is, is AI, if you do reverse engineer the math, and you look at the trillions or spending on catbecks, and just reverse engineer and say, okay, how much of gross profits they need to make to justify that? And in turn, what are the implied revenues that you need to justify that? Lier's figure, but figures don't lie. And so the question is, is there going to be an acceptable return on capital, all those trillions of dollars are being spent, or is this just going to be, you know, a hundred billion dollar tam, and you're going to answer your commodity business, and there's going to be no margins. That's the issue. And that could be what it is. I mean, that really could be what AI ends up being to a degree, unless they can really innovate products on top of that, which they very well might, you know, focus on particular services and needs. And they could make a ton of money if they could get into medical, for example, not saying I want them to, but they'd sure love to make a lot of money. The irony of it all, I think, is we could look back at the second half of 2026, as the time when the AI industry sabotaged

56:46their own pump from within. And if we're going to go down this route, if we're going to slow it down, if there's talks of an FDA for AI, just today, actually, and Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Steve Bannon and others have called come together to call for a complete pause on AI development, as we figure all of this out, because it's always easy to raise the, well, we don't know what we don't know argument. You can raise that at any point, and you can kind of just imagine all kinds of things when you say, well, we don't know what we don't know. So let's pause. And I think what what will happen is you will end up with a very stark have and have knots with access to AI. And I don't often say this, but I think Larry Fink has this right because the man understands incentives. I think the delays in the build out of AI is only going to make AI the domain of large firms. We have shortages in so many countries of inexpensive energy. We have shortages of chips

57:53and memory. And as these shortages continue, it's a very expensive of build out AI. And it's with that expense, it's more the domain of large companies. And the faster we can build out more capacity, the more we can democratize and make it available for everyone. And I think the dichotomy that we're facing right now, it's a populism that's pretty in the slow down because we have not articulated and defined what best practices. And I think that's obviously urgently necessary. But the irony is it actually slows down the democratization of technology. And technology works best when it's dispersed across society. And if we are going to see the societal delays, whether they're in Europe or let's say New York State, it then creates a longer guide path to make this technology a little

58:54more. And that's one of the real critical issues. These delays make it harder, not better. But we do need the guidelines. We need the best practices to be doing it. And I think this is going to be one of the more serious conversations about how do we make this technology available for everyone? The Fiat system is going to shoot itself in the foot over its own hysteria on this one. So let's just take a look at the bigger picture. Energy is getting more expensive. The Trump administration is going to have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to ease that. The bond market's getting harder to control, forcing worse to raise rates and show ease tough. Washington can't agree on the rules around any of it. So Besson's going off and doing his own thing. And the gross story that we've all been counting on is undermining and sabotaging itself. Every one of these problems eventually comes back to just I think a basic question. Who controls the money? Who says the price of capital? And who gets rescued if any of this breaks? Because it's not you and me

59:57individually, right? Bitcoin doesn't fix an energy shock. It doesn't fix a broken Congress. It doesn't fix a freaking bond market out. Doesn't help it. Doesn't fix it. But it does give you an asset outside of all of that detached from the bailout community. It doesn't worry about forward guidance on the long term. Doesn't require a 12 to zero vote to set the price. Doesn't include any rescue. There's no rescue with Bitcoin. But at least it's not involved with all of this, right? Like in the short term, sure, as the market discovers price, yes. But long term, the case for Bitcoin is so clear. And when we watch all of this go down, it's so obvious. So stacks ads. Stay humble, I say. Let's check in on the state of the market speaking of sats.

1:01:10Rappin up at Block height 967,325. Bitcoin priced US dollar one are 76,130. That puts our sats per dollar 1,314. We are down 39.7%. Getting very familiar with this price range, aren't we? 345 days since our all-time high. You savages. Our retarget date is just around the corner, September 18th with an upward adjustment of 4.7%. Total reachable nodes on the network at 26,766. We are up slightly since the last episode 0.3%, but down 2.8% for seven days. Transaction fees below. One sat per v bite for immediate transaction. So if lightning pegs open up, it'll be cheap. A boy can dream. But the Bitcoin network itself. Well, that remains strong. Tick-tock next block. Always keep your gas in that Bitcoin. Links to what I talked about and more at this week in

1:02:24Bitcoin.show. Back catalog on some of these topics can be really useful. Every show includes a transcript in chapters 2. You can point your clanker at. Also an MP4 if you like to go that route. These clips generally have visuals. Let me know what I did with a boost to boost.jupiter-bracasting.com. The show does try to focus on the signal. Aron, what's going on? Not the politics or the emotions that tries to sift out the signal. So that way you can plan for yourself, your friends, your family, your future, whatever it might be. So you can let me know how I did it with a boost right there. And don't forget, I also want to get your take on if we're going to hear from the Clarity Act version 2. And if you really want to shoot for this guy, why don't you come up with a new name? Something better than Clarity Act because they're going to need a new name, right? They're going to have to rename that thing. So you could toss that in there if you want as well. All right, that's it for me. Thank you so much for joining me on this week's episode of this week in Bitcoin. This week in Bitcoin.show is the website jupiter-bracasting.com for Linux unplugged and the launch. We did some really good episodes on random numbers on the launch. And we got into some of the AI stuff two episodes ago. So there's some all over the place.

1:03:26Lump and launch. Definitely check them out. And I'll see you back here next week.