10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast. Here's what you missed. People wake up and go, oh, damn, wait and hold up. They changed all of that? Yes. It's real. This is a wholesale attack. It is targeting black people in every federal agency. It's raw. White folks have never allowed that reckoning to last more than a decade. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network. And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the I Heart Radio App Apple Podcast. Or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, guys. Ready or not, 2024 is here. And we here at Breaking Points are already thinking of ways we can up our game for this critical election. We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade the studio, add staff, give you guys the best independent coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, it just means the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that. Let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.

1:01Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. Good to see you, Ryan. People live for the town. Where are we going to go this way? I'm going to put both my fists. I hope you guys like my new remote digs. But we do have an amazing show for everybody today. Bro show. Wow. This is actually easier remote because I can see this beautiful little bar that we have down there. We're going to start off with the situation with Iran. Ryan, we believe Galibov might be a free month trial subscribe because he is regurgitating. Ryan Grim, exactly. And we're talking explicitly about the 10 year bond situation. We're going to give everybody an update as well on these terror attacks, both the UK, who is now claiming that there are strong indications that Iran is tied to the so-called explosives attack, even though no explosives were found against that airbase. In addition to some new details that we're learning about that alleged hijacking,

2:04which potential, you know, which a potential hijack situation, suicide attack, very strange kind of situation happened on that fly Dubai fright from Israel to Dubai. We're also going to talk about the midterms. There's some new leaked data or sorry leaked audio from Ken Paxton, in which he admits that the GOP midterm convention in Texas actually hurt his numbers. That's with some additional reporting that's coming out about Hispanics and South Texas, flipping against the Republican Party. Rokana is actually going to stop by he's going to join us and talk a little bit about AI. He has a new bill that he has released, which is banning super intelligence. Bill Gates in addition has joined the Ezra Klein podcast. It's some interesting stuff there from Bill. I don't fully trust everything the guy has to say, but Ryan and I are going to break that down. And then Christopher Leonard, who is one of my favorite authors, has a new Atlantic story about the Thad delusion. Chris is just one of the best people whenever it comes to anti-monopoly, corruption.

3:07He's written phenomenal books. Ryan, I think you, you guys are friends. And thank you for booking him in. I'm really excited to talk to him about that. Yeah, it's a really essential story because he's looking at the complete collapse of our missile defense system while we're still pretending like we're going to continue operating in the Middle East as if that wasn't a physical constraint on our ability to do so. That's right. All right, Ryan, take us away. Pitch master. Well, we actually do have a very significant new pitch now because, okay, go to breakingpoints.com, you sign up for the one month free trial. According to new reporting, the new AI agents that are developing are making it much easier for people to cancel their subscription. Apparently, it's driving something like it has the potential to drive something like a 50% collapse in subscription revenue because when people are reminded by an agent, hey, are you still, you still want to keep paying for this breakingpoints.com subscription?

4:07It was supposed to be a month free. Now you've been here for like two years. People are apparently like 50% more likely to be like, you know what, actually time's your tight. I bought a barrel of oil, oil price crashed. I can't afford it anymore. Our entire business model relies on people forgetting that they're paying for this. So what we need to do is basically double the number of people who are subscribing to this show so that we can afford to lose the people who are going to be reminded that they know long, go on a watch it. Plus also, we got to get some sympathy subs here for soccer. No, no, no, I've given up. Ryan, it's all yours. By the way, people did sign up for my Baklava pitch. I don't know if you know about this. I said that 50 people signed up on our Tuesday show. I would buy Baklava for our entire staff because I mistakenly said Baklava instead of Balaklava. And so I am now on the hook Baklava and Apple T for the entire crew. I will have it for all of you whenever you come into the studio. So thank you to everybody. You're going to cost me a fortune, but it is what it is. There's actually a Michelin star Turkish restaurant very near our studio.

5:11And so that's what I will be getting for our entire crew and our staff. And enough people will forget to cancel that you'll be able to afford the Baklava. I will be able to afford the Baklava. That's exactly correct. Okay, let's go ahead and start with this Iran situation. Let's put it up here on the screen. I'm going to set it up. It's up and Ryan, I'm going to let you explain why exactly this is so significant. So the yield on the 10 year treasury has now served to a 24 year high, quote, relentless selling pressure has driven the yield on the 10 year US treasury note to a 24 year high. A new marker that provides further evidence that the economy has entered a new chapter of higher borrowing costs. That is a key benchmark for interest rates on all types of debt. The big yield on the 10 year note has climbed to 5.3% in recent trading, pushing past is 2007, intraday peak of 5.3% in May of 2002. So in the wake of the dot com boom, Ryan, can you put this in context for us? Because I know you've been following, you know, the Iranians, communications on bonds and yields.

6:16And you're putting it together really with Galibov's intended strategy. Yeah, and whenever you start seeing time horizons that blow past the great financial crisis, like in other words, none of this was as bad as during that period in time. Because now you have to go back to 2002. This is a real danger zone because when you see this velocity of movement, that is the real concern. Because I've seen people say, oh, well, the moving average over the last 50 years is more like 6%. So it's not even that big of a deal. It's like, yeah, bro, because you're factoring in like 20 plus percent at some points in the 1980s. And like surging interest rates in the late 1970s. What we're talking about is that the entire system that we have developed over the last quarter century has relied on stable low interest rates. And when you start moving with this amount of speed, it's going to start breaking things. What things it breaks, we don't exactly know. And it was very funny yesterday on the show. We talked about how this kind of affirmed one of the kind of finance, bro posts that Muhammad Galiboth had made several months ago.

7:23And a couple hours later, he put out an even crazier one, crazier in the sense of, whoa, it kind of punches you in the face. But it's actually kind of useful to walk through it. So let's put up a two. This is the post that Galiboth put up yesterday. And you look at it like, oh my god, what are we doing here? But if you break it down, it actually is fairly straightforward. And so his formula here, omega t. So basically means this is the stress on the house. And the house is a reference to when Scott Besson said, I'm the house now. He's a big trader. He used to trade against the house. He's saying, I'm the house. I can basically set the terms. And so I'm going to beat all of the traders. Since he said that, he is getting absolutely smashed by everybody who's trading against the house. Anyway, so what Galiboth is saying here. So the ability of Iran to put stress on the house, he's arguing it's weight over capacity.

8:26Weight is basically the debt weight. Like how much debt the United States is carrying over its capacity to hold that debt plus Iran levers. What plus what Iran is able to do? What he's saying here, because there's a division there, if the debt goes up and our capacity of pay it goes down, it has kind of an kind of exponential like amplified effect on us. So he's saying our debt weight, so the next formula here, our debt weight is going up because we're running into a maturity wall. We have a whole bunch of two maturity wall means we've got all these two year treasury bonds. And others that are coming do that we're going to have to refinance at much higher rates. So that's going up pile of debt. That just means that debt is our debt is gradually growing as well. Yolds are going up, yield velocity is growing up. That's all obvious. Now the capacity of the US government to respond to it, he's saying, is going way down. Because there's less room for the Federal Reserve to mess around.

9:26Fed parking lot is talking about the way that the kind of repo market has collapsed. It used to be a lot of money market stuff. I mean, it used to be a lot of treasury bonds. There's not as much treasuries in there. There's no growth. He's saying our economy is kind of slumping along. Not exactly true. We're still growing a little bit, but not keeping up with inflation. Foreign buyers are way down. We've talked about that on the program, you know, the Japanese, the cross the board. And then dealer capacity. That's basically big banks. That big banks don't have the capacity to buy treasuries like they did anymore because they are struggling as well. Because as yields go up, the value of the treasuries that they hold goes down. And so they have then less, you know, basically capital that they can then dispense and then use. So his overall formula at the bottom there, Iran levers are going up. Energy prices are going up. Bonds are going up.

10:29And federal and federal interest rates are going up. And his final formula at the bottom, he's saying that you're going to see the stress on the House rise from now until November election day. And then rise through 2027. What's important about this is that he has his eye on the prize, which is what he's calling stress on the House, which is stress on you, stress on the American, stress on the American public, whereas the US is focused on tactical things. So he's, in other words, Iran is focused on everything, Omega. And we are looking at how many barrels of oil or how many tankers did we get through the straight of Hormuz today? Disconnecting that from, well, what's the price of oil? And more importantly, what is the price of oil doing to the price of diesel? And what is the price of diesel doing to inflation that is driving up interest rates? Like we are so many layers away from fighting about what matters.

11:32It's almost comical. Like it, great, good for us that we're getting more oil through the straight of Hormuz. Like that's an impressive operational feat on the part of the US Navy, and we should acknowledge that. But if Iran is still able to keep oil prices over 100, diesel prices sky high, and interest rates threatening a global financial crisis, then what we're able to accomplish is impressive. A for effort and showed up, you get a trophy, but like trying to win. And there's no evidence that we're winning here is what Goliath is saying. That was a Ryan GPT analysis, much better and more full than whenever I asked Claude, please translate this into plain English. But genuinely very helpful. Let's put A3 up there on the screen. There's been a lot of talk from the United States about how much control it has of the straight of Hormuz. Yesterday, trade wins, which is a freight trade journal said that several ships were attacked in the street of Hormuz as Iran had launched fresh strikes.

12:37Three tankers were impacted by quote, unknown projectiles. So that really does kind of, you know, it really crystallizes, I think, Ryan's entire point, which is, look, we are spending inordinate amounts of money to get Hormuz traffic to around pre-war levels. It is vulnerable at all times to people with surfaced air missiles with, you know, who, you know, sea mines, IRGC, they could keep that up for years. At the same time, it requires, as we remember, Marines who are boarding armed merchants, you know, merchant ships that are frequently being able to be targeted by cruise missiles, blackhawk helicopters hovering as the cover of night as a convoy makes its way through. I mean, this is, you know, Sal, from what's going on with shipping contextualize it effectively is like a light world war two-esque strategy from the Atlantic Conway. And that really hit home for me because that was at a time of existential crisis for the United Kingdom and for our millions of troops that were stationed in the UK and eventually who, you know, were landed on the European continent.

13:47This is not that, right? Like this is just to reopen this waterway and there's no end strategic end in sight where Iran just goes, okay, we're done like the Nazis did whenever Berlin fell, right? So let's put a four up here on the screen to show how they're still grappling with all of the immediate crises. This exactly gets to Ryan's point around diesel where, by the way, you know, we just hit a new fresh all time high just yesterday White House is holding crunch talks on diesel export ban as the midterms near. So even though Trump has waffled on diesel export bands, they say a to present the president with options, including curbs on international devils sales. So it might be kind of a light diesel ban as in like curbs or quotas as opposed to an all out ban evaluating all options on the table. Everything is geared towards lower domestic fuel prices and no decision has yet been made. Remember that even the Republican energy secretary Chris Wright basically said, guys, this would be an incredibly stupid idea and very counterproductive.

14:51Something our friend Rory has been making the point of and by the way to his point, let's go to the next part. Just yesterday US diesel prices are now at a fresh all time high above $224 a barrel and it has something to do with the end of the month when contracts expire. There's like a cycling element that happens for everything a diesel nationally today is about two couple like 10 cents almost off of the real all time retail high of $651, but you will soon find that barrel price price reflected in what you are paying at the pump. And I just think generally I saw the White House kind of celebrating or at least some Republican supporters of the war celebrating the fact that you had a 10 cent reduction. I'm like, okay, well, it's more than double the entire price. So we're going to see a few more 10 cent increments Ryan before we start declaring victory over any of this and until you know eventually I was it was interesting Ryan we weren't able to get it into our show.

15:57But did you see yesterday was the first time in probably modern US history in the lifetime of many of our viewers that there is not an American force at least acknowledged on the ground in Afghanistan or in Iraq. And that should have been something for celebration except for the fact that we are currently at war with the rocks neighbor Iran and that there are tens of thousands of troops that remain in the region actively engaged in combat for another stupid Middle Eastern war. So it caused that should have been for celebration as instead just highlighted the idiocy of our establishment. And the timing is kind of ironic because the troops were there to protect oil supplies effectively and to guard the House of Saud. And right after Iraqi militias apparently it was them who blew up Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline. One of the who these apparently came from the Iraqi side. We leave. Like not that we like it's like well when we were there we weren't able to stop it anyway.

17:00So I guess guess we might might as well move out. I kind of think there's a decent chance of curious for your take that Trump actually does enact this at some point. It's October 1st today. You know we're just under a month away. Mail and ballots are out in some places they're going out across the country fairly soon. The election is basically coming upon us. And all the analysis is that you would get in most parts of the country a tick down in diesel prices in the immediate few weeks after the announcement. And then all hell breaks loose right after that. And Trump is you know these are very very much a live to fight another day kind of person. So if he can get a two week kind of reprieve not not total reprieve but at least you know some breathing room. And his advisors tell him yeah but then you know right after that it's going to cause enormous problems. He's like well after that what like who Trump does not care about down the road. Whether you believe Tucker or not in the least like well I'm going to die anyway.

18:03That's kind of his entire attitude towards life. Like don't tell me about what's going to happen Friday. I'm just I'm fighting on Thursday. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast. Here's what you missed and the argument is do you want to win if you don't win you have no power. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests and they complained about the very thing to receive. It's wrong. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off I said this is exactly what I'm talking about. You're going to scream at Chanel but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bag. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the black information network. 12 seats. Those are moving south. So if you Democrats you don't wait to 23 you better be hitting the ground going hard in the south now.

19:08Roland Martin unfiltered on the I heart radio app Apple podcast. Wherever you get your podcasts. The other thing is what do we know about this current administration Trump is obsessed with what rich people say and every rich person in America who's involved in the oil business is like please don't do this. You will irrepably damage our business and you also look I mean I don't think it cares entirely what foreign leaders say but you know the Japanese and the South Koreans and all of these other countries. Are putting on a full court press behind the scenes from what I understand basically saying sir do not do this you will destroy our modern economy and you will basically have to send us out on the black market or to have to try and buy diesel from Russia or from any of these other countries if you're going to do this to us it will severely damage our relationships not to mention Europe I believe it's like 41% or something I just saw a number in which they're heavily reliant on imports Europe right now so the United States is the diesel refiner of last resort because Russia was taken offline and Ukraine has even more taken their diesel exports offline there's a few other markets but right now it's a very easy place to do business with the petro dollar with existing business

20:25relationships and as I've always said here you know we're going to talk about Texas one of the reasons why I don't think that the economy is as much of a drag is that there is a significant part of the state I'm from there who are actually making more money than they ever have in their entire life. They're they're making generational wealth in the city of Houston and at the port of use of these guys I mean they will retire in the next couple of years only because of what's happened here with the Iran war is I mean you know when you are a ship freight and you can charge oil freighter you're charging a million dollars a day you can pay off your entire ship according to Sal in a few runs and you're in the black for the rest of your life when you previously had thought this is like a 30 year fixed rate type mortgage situation so that is a fundamental you know difference I think just regionally in our economy but it does highlight you know the squeezing of what's happening put a six on the screen because this shows what's happening in the European markets where Russia just yesterday extended the diesel export ban until the end of October there's a couple ways that you could read this number one Russia's obviously pissed at Trump Russia they don't mind high diesel prices right now as much as it's also hurting their economy and the Ukrainian drone attacks which continued as of yesterday but overall this is putting tremendous pressure on the diesel market the other is that the Ukrainians have just done so much damage they may not have the

21:53country to not be able to export period and already we're actually seeing some of the consequences of this in our own economy let's put a five B guys I sent this this morning about how American truckers we actually have 16 trucking companies now so far which have filed for bankruptcy as diesel costs so and everybody is going to start seeing this you will see diesel surcharges if you you know I don't know like if lawn companies I heard a story of being a lawn mowers people or high hiring out for yard service just being like oh wow our bill went up and the companies like yeah man like we have diesel costs you know like we have trucks and things that we have to do and this will obviously show up in overall inflation and so tying it back to that Galbauf tweet where he put out his complicated formula the general TLDR was is he's like look the yields are going up and according to his formula and also according to a lot of the current analysis is that the bond market is not going to recover just because oil comes down now that we kind of are in this runaway government spending cycle in addition to the loss of US prestige in addition to the massive boom in artificial intelligence spending you have created this kind of runaway

23:11brain bond problem where even the diesel industry I was just reading yesterday they told the White House they're like this entire thing could end literally today and for a full year diesel will not return to where it was just because of the damage that's now been done to the market and that's without China so if China reenters we're going even more sky high then 224 dollars barrel and quick side question why is why are Democrats doing so well in Texas despite the fact that parts of it are absolutely booming well first of all candidate quality great question we'll talk about this in our midterm block but I mean something that we have highlighted here on the show is you could make an argument polling wise that the state of Iowa is more in play than the state of Texas yeah and I think that's true what's happening in in I think that diesel is the story where people in Texas is a lot of money down there there's AI cap X Ben boom I mean there's a lot of rich people that are down in Texas whereas in Iowa you have a farming rely economy and you've been doubly screwed by tariffs and your high diesel prices you don't you don't produce diesel in Iowa you are a consumer largely of diesel and so that kind of highlights like that's why I think there will be some a limited amount of regional disparity and you know it's kind of like the bell curve where you know where you fall on that really matters and I feel like Iowa is on the tail end of a state most to be

24:39negatively affected by two concrete policies of choice by the Trump administration last thing a seven Ryan I mean I think you wanted to hit this where I mean this is just kind of like weird behavior from the United States apparently Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the country after the United Nations do you want to do you know anything about this very yeah yeah I can tell you for a fact that they were planning on staying for a I don't know how long but well into this week because I was you know in talks with interviewing Araqqi who while he was in New York and there was no plan that he was you know leaving on Monday and so yeah according to this reporting which is which I understand to be true after they hit some impasse and negotiations Rubio is like just all right everybody out like just just go and there and this was after they had already denied visas last minute to a whole bunch of kind of high level not just support staff but very high level members of the Iranian delegation

25:43and I know that they were they were scrambling because like the people that had all of different contact lists and everything they were blocked from coming and so the entire delegation was kind of a mess you know and then they put on all these bizarre restrictions about you know what they're allowed to do while they're here just a lot of kind of petty humiliation which the which the US had kind of you know at least in spirit committed not to do when when the US agreed to host the United Nations to say like this is not your this is not your pet that you're allowed to use for your own purposes it was supposed to be this is for the entire world and it we're going to base it in New York but you're going to allow people to come there who you're in a cold war with you're in a hot war with and and you're going to be cool about it and we're not being very cool about it Yeah Ryan I'm trying to do a history when is the last time that the US was at war with a sovereign nation recognized by the United Nations where the UN where they were basically the counterparty lasted long enough to be able to have a diplomatic presence in the United States

26:54I just asked Claude apparently North Vietnam was never in the UN maybe Libya you know I could I could maybe got to go back and check like maybe Gaddafi had somebody at the UN yeah he probably must have right exactly It certainly must have had somebody at the UN Iraq right Iraq right but then that collapsed in three weeks So I'm like you know this kind of is an unprecedented situation it's by the way actually was as you know Ryan a lot of people warned about this whenever they put the United Nations in New York they're like why would we put it here you know what if we have problems with with the United States so maybe they were right and especially when you're not a nuclear power like the Soviet Union okay let's get to terror Didn't catch the latest role in the Martin unfiltered podcast here's what you missed and the argument is Do you want to win if you don't win You have no power it's real those are the very people who I always say and vote against their own economic interests And they complained about the very thing to receive it's wrong. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes

28:00Was not going well with a lot of black men Roland Martin unfiltered I went off I said this is exactly I'm talking about y'all go scream as Chanel But you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bag catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the black information network 12 seats Those are moving south. So if you Democrats you don't wait to 2030 you better be hitting the ground going hard in the south now and download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHot Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts Turning out to two of these alleged terror incidents We want to give everybody an update on that is really hijacked situation. Let's put this video up on the screen multiple video Released from many of the passengers who are on this fly Dubai flight where the details officially that have come out Describe two pilots in the cockpit the copilot allegedly tried to put the plane into a dive while stabbing the main pilot

29:07According to the Israeli officials the pilot who was stabbed was able to fight off his copilot and actually open the cockpit door Which enabled both two reserve pilots who were on the plane to come in and safely landed in addition to some of the passengers To actually secure the copilot who had been trying to crash the plane apparently they did it with a wired headphones So a lot of the wired headphone community is speaking up on that one the one of the survivors of that attack met with Prime Minister Netanyahu Yesterday immediately after returning to Israel guys like you put that video on the screen He described it saying quote I pulled the yoke up and I stopped the plane's dive It's lucky I had from aviation experience from the Mayday air crash series Which is I believe on YouTube or in some video format and so Ryan I know you and Emily covered a lot of this yesterday

30:09Of course you also have good sources and others. I don't blame people. There's a lot of skepticism around this I don't I mean I certainly do As well whenever it comes to at least you know obviously any precipitating attack which could cause a major international incident I don't just say that because it's Israel we're literally about to talk about this with Iran and the UK as well I'm curious to where your head is at and any reporting or any other details that you think are relevant What's so interesting is that if you I Haven't seen a pole of the American public the sense that I guess so many people are expressing so much skepticism obviously there was a knife fight Uh or at least it was some kind of fight with sharp objects that led to You know what an enormous set of injuries to the other pilot Clearly the plane you know plummeted you know, so you know all of these all of these things happen But people are very much questioning the timing of this what how like how how did this come about

31:12uh, it's We've kind of entered this this period where it whatever News event comes about you're gonna get a huge number of people who are like It minimum waiting to see waiting to hear more information about this before Before jumping to Before jumping to any conclusions on it. I don't know. What are you hearing Well, you know, I haven't heard anything specific obviously the Mayday crash one was highlighted to me by a lot of people I read it just because I mean it is you know plausible Of course it to happen as you said the passenger is literally covered in blood And immediately met with Netanyahu kind of where I fall on this is that I do think All of the details described did happen just in terms of the way that it's come out And I think that Netanyahu is exploiting it for domestic political purposes because he is the head in an or because he's going into a knife fight election And this is kind of you know the whole reason and pitch that he's making to these really people So it's a lot like October 7th where you know, you have a horrific situation

32:15Which then you know kind of morphs and turns into something for bigger domestic political purposes for example BB had actually previously even said in his Campaign speech we can put the next one up here on the screen We have indications that ahead of the elections our enemies will try to attack us. So look I mean these people again are trying to port the Portrait as a false flag And all of that and I am I remain deeply skeptical of many international terror incidents whenever they're immediately described Just because you and I have done this for long enough where we know that the details all dramatically change in a matter of 24 to 48 hours But generally where I land is I do think you know mostly what's described has happened just there were children on board You know, they're screaming obvious. There's a horrific situation. There's damage to the plane the landing in Saudi Arabia UAE and Saudi who also I mean, I don't think you have a ton of incentive to comply all basically confirming many of the details But largely I think of course, you know

33:16In many ways like United States politicians any politicians a security incident like this can be a rallying cry And of course hijacking airplanes is something that kind of harkens back to a long period of Israeli history both in terms of LL flights and other incidents that have happened many times over the last 50 or 60 years in particular Why it's actually hitting home quite hard in Israel But anyway wanted to make sure that we showed everybody all of that Let's also then get to this UK Fairford situation We're frankly I think there's a hell of a lot more Questions as of right now with the prime minister Andy Burnham now saying that they have strong Indications that Iran was connected to this plot. Let's take a listen strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF effort But of course it remains an ongoing Complex and serious police investigation and of course we are working closely With our colleagues in the United States of America

34:19So it's ongoing I have held a cobra meeting as I've been here at the conference in Liverpool We are on top of it in every possible way imaginable Police in Gloucestershire our counterterrorism police have done an outstanding job I thank them for that. We will say more in due course, but we can confirm Our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part All right, so strong indications and yet again here the details you're like hold on a second Let's put the next one up here on the screen apparently One of the guys in this so-called plot actually called 999 which is their emergency line before the arrests were made at the base Now here's the problem Ryan is that the current narrative from a lot of the press is that that's why These suspects were apprehended But you and I know that actually what happened is that this farming woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night

35:23And that she's the one who called the police and So what they're trying to spin it as is that this guy had called the police he got cold feet And had called them and alerted them and maybe they were watching But it kind of obfuscates the exact details through which the arrest went down in the first place by this woman Driving down the road in midnight who saw these sketchy vans We also know for a fact that there have been no explosives found that it's all just been you know petrol as they call it We don't know if it was diesel or whether it was gasoline which would validate you know a lot of the speculation in the UK That actually was just a bunch of general dogs trying to steal diesel while the diesel price is so high So look the UK prime minister saying this obviously is a big deal But a lot of the details still remain very strange Yeah, and if you you listen to Burnham and you read all the news reports in Europe about it They keep saying now we have suspicions that

36:23Iran and Marco Rubio said the foreign powers would be involved with it quote it or what happened at the They like What what happened Like what what's the it here the it three got five lads and like three vans were outside this base and this lady called the cops on them they got arrested They found that they had Petrol in their vans Then nothing else like so what's what's the it that are Iran was like Take take a bunch of petrol and pour it on the chain link fence outside the Base and then light it up like what like I You've looked into this more than I have I think what is the it that Iran is allegedly Supposed to have been involved with here like if there's no explosives There's nothing that there there's nothing that ties them to any break-in effort like what's the it Let's put the next one up there guys which really highlights Ryan's questions here

37:24So the mystery over the base as police find petrol but no exclusive Mired in confusion a quantity of petrol was found in the vehicles acting suspiciously and a major incident And again, you know you have this guy who apparently called the police on himself or at least again That's with the Wall Street Journal and some of the other western media are reporting But it doesn't comport with the fact that the whole thing was busted because this woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night By the way, Iran has responded be eight we can put their statement up here on the screen They say pia this is from their foreign minister orachi Prime Minister Burnham says the UK government can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part in the fair for an incident I can confirm Iran's belief that releasing supposed terror suspect working for foreign states really says it all You are barking up the wrong tree so a denial or I guess of denial in part That this wasn't anyway in Iranian sort of alleged attack

38:28I don't know. I mean you can't really trust either of the figures that were involved here I will say you know there's been a lot of skepticism and I remain firmly in it But I do want to give you know I want to give credit to Treetoparcy who immediately in the aftermath Did say he's like look the IRGC did say that many of these foreign bases which give you know basing rights or you know or or allow The United States to take off from there to bomb Iran are now vulnerable to attack in the immediate aftermath I immediately said I didn't think it would make a lot of sense I thought it would be absolutely shocking Because to attack an airbase in the middle of the UK would almost certainly bring the UK more into the war Which is not in Iran's direct interest and it would also you know rally around the flag and I can only guess if the Iran war is double digit You know or like you know triple digit whatever popular on Unpopular in the United States. I can only imagine what it is in the UK

39:30Especially with the labor government that barely wants to be involved in this in the first place And this would only give them the security reason to do so. So that's just my general thinking Ryan Right, and they bailed these five men out And we don't know yet like what the guy told the police. It's there's some extraordinary gaps and In what they're telling the public because That's rather essential like what did he say when he calls? And your point is a good one Iran is very deliberately and conspicuously not attacked Israel because they like the fact that Israel Is currently not attacking them they can just go one-on-one with the US here uh Launching a terror attack inside the UK Like with with gasoline or pet or diesel or whatever like it's not going to have any effect It's not actually going to shut the base down a couple guys with bands all it's going to do. Yeah, it's like heightened the UK's willingness to participate In the war against Iran. So yeah, it doesn't make sense. You can't who knows but

40:33So far The the quote unquote major incident that keeps getting described Um has not actually been described like what we're talking about here Totally agree. All right, let's get to midterms Didn't catch the latest roll in the martin unfiltered podcast here's what you missed and the argument is Do you want to win if you don't win? You have no power. It's real Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests And they complained about the very thing to receive it's wrong. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes Was not Going well with a lot of black men roll and martin unfiltered. I went off. I said this is exactly what I'm talking about Y'all go scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same bag Catch Roland martins daily commentary on the black information network Seas those are moving south. So if you Democrats you don't wait to

41:38You better be hitting the ground going hard in the south now and download Roland martin unfiltered on the iHot radio app Available podcast or wherever you get your podcasts Turning now to the midterms some crazy leaked audio from Ken Pax in the senate candidate in Texas where he says That Trump's midterm convention in Texas actually dragged his numbers down. Let's take a listen So The numbers Little muffled with there to be honest with you when we did that with the midterm convention and dropped our numbers Everybody's numbers dropped. Yeah, not good as Ken says in the most eloquent language that he possibly can as usual that we can expect From him Trump was even asked about this in the oval office. Let's take a listen

42:40President there's a report that Ken Pax spend was complaining about your midterm convention and he felt like it hurt him What's your reaction to that? Well, I haven't heard that but I can tell you that the convention was amazing As you probably know we had 107 million views think of that we had Over a hundred million views angle 107 the NFL had 25 million views So we had four times what the NFL did and You know, it's possible that could be true. I don't know if it's possible But other people will help greatly. This was a national convention midterm convention never been done before Um, and we went directly against the NFL was just the timing worked out that way And we had a hundred and seven million versus 25 million views which was a big story in the entertainment world and sports world What have been a big story if literally any of it was true It appears that the real number Ryan is roughly three million And I actually even called that at the time. I'm like you guys are really going head to head against the NFL

43:45Opening weekend. I'm like, I don't know Not not really in the advisory category if you actually want to get anybody to watch it My guess is they probably went on Twitter and counted all of those All that and tick tock and all of that together Which I'm sure the NFL could probably do that too and that will put that around a billion Yeah, right uh crazy stuff man, uh, you know generally I mean have you done I know you've you've looked a little bit into the Texas race with packs in and with taloriko What does taloriko world generally feel right now going into the last stretch of the election that That everything is coming together in All of the ways that they needed to come together like this was always going to be and still is a a huge uphill climb Texas is just so you know structurally difficult For Democrats to win in but they you know they they needed

44:47They needed packs them to win first off They needed taloriko to win so they you know they got the matchup that they wanted And even then if if trump had stuck with the mo you And we were looking at you know mortgage rates at 6% And you know gas prices at three dollars and diesel a little bit more affordable and you know Oil flowing through the straight of our moves without the necessity of you know seal team six You know dragging every every tanker through Then he probably gets close but Um, but not all the way there But with with this complete collapse It's adding to all of the rest of the anger at him and we can put up This this next element here the New York Times one C C4 New York Times sent people down to the border And you know got these got some of these classic interviews that people just just love of You know talking to a woman who cast her first ballot ever

45:48Uh for in 2024 or for Donald Trump but two years later after her brother was deported she feels angry Uh and betrayed Also then talks to a guy who runs a construction company who can't find uh workers Uh a pastor who led you know his congregation to the polls for Republicans Who is is now just trying to get them to even continue participating in politics because they're So so live it about uh The things that that Trump did you know the you know a lot of these voters along the west Texas border Thought that the border was out of control. They agreed with Trump on that Uh, they're they're not necessarily hostile to the whole build the wall argument that he was making They did not think that that also meant that they that he was gonna you know stand ice throughout all of the communities and and kind of so the amount of terror and when it comes to the you know construction companies

46:49You they you know, I don't know what I don't know how they thought this was gonna go for them But however they thought it was gonna go Uh it went differently and They you know Trump Shocked the world by winning a majority of Hispanic right voters along the border. It reshaped his entire coalition It changed the game when it came to the demographic destiny of the Democrats and and what Republicans believed was was possible You know opened up this possibility of you know permanent majority coalition around kind of law and order and In a year and a half he you know squandered the entire thing and if he loses You know Hispanic voters along the border by 30 points then taleriko is in play now. You're the you're the local correspondent down there What what's what's your sense? Well, you know, I haven't been I actually haven't been down to south Texas in quite some time But it is a fascinating place. I will say in this particular case, you know to the extent let's say I'm angry with Trump

47:54Or a lot of people around Trump. It's for not if you're doing things that you know, they said that they weren't going to do I do find it really difficult to square voting for Donald Trump when your brother is an illegal Illegal Alien present in the nation and then to be upset whenever said person gets deported I will look I'll give her her do she says quote I knew he was going to start deporting people He was going to go after bad criminals true hardcore camellus rapists and killers She thought of her six children, but when her brother was taken into immigration detention after schedule check and she felt like it was a punch in the God I didn't think it would target people who were here I mean, I'm sorry like that's just and she even says I saw the sign mass deportation and I didn't believe that it would apply I mean in this particular case ma'am like you got to learn how to read I mean, I don't think that it was all that difficult to understand what the sign said or exactly what was explicitly laid out in the speeches and others

48:54You can talk on me, you know all you want and I think that's fair In some cases, but like in this in this particular case like you know same with the construction people who are like Oh, well, it's going to be harder for me to hire illegal aliens to work for my construction company I'm like that was one of the explicit goals of the deportation and administration strategy in order to force you to Raise prices and actually or raise wages and actually hire people who are here present in the country legally So all of that has said I guess it just confirms my theory that the median voter like basically here's whatever they want to hear You know in terms of how it will affect them because she does say like you said that they were worried about this string of people who were coming across the border And they were upset about that But what they also say really is beyond that it's the economic situation Quote the economic struggles seem to have only gotten worse shaped by the same forces at play and the rest of the economy Construction has slowed small business owners to the lost customers and restaurants and a construction site search lobbies

49:57Optimism about the second Trump administration has curdled into a deep sense of abandonment not all of it again related to ice a lot of it Still related to diesel and to gas which while I said previously in our show that gas prices were you know Were not as high in Texas. I think they're barely around four dollars a gallon compared to the rest of the nation around four 40 or four 50 it's four dollars a gallon is still very very high and so look I mean, I think you just have a community of people who had swung so wildly in the last 10 years That they are always up for grabs and that's why any idea of a permanent majority is foolish one of my books Which is over there right now not behind me, but I should put it up is the car bill book and I look at it all the time of 40 more years after 2008 and it should really be enshrined in a museum Because it was about the permanent democratic majority and how Democrats would rule the nation for the next 40 years And literally eight years later Donald Trump wins the presidency and then 16 years later

50:58He wins the national popular vote So what are the most debunked and discredited theories in modern politics? And I feel like a lot of the Hispanic, you know celebration Of a lot among a lot of Republicans after 2024 was the same I will note I literally talked about this. I said look one of the problems with you know with elections is thermostatic public opinion Where people shift wildly all over the place Depending on who is in power and so unless you actually deliver something for them Then you're really not going to have any sort of permanent elect permanent electoral coalition And I have which is what everybody keeps trying to do. I got an even more fun one for you in 2004 if you remember Karl Roves said there was going to be a 50 year A permanent Republican majority 22 years later Karl Rove himself is voting for Democrats I'll run the case so right. It's like Good boy Karl Rove Just took to the stage the Texas tribute vets and he's going to be voting Democrat for the rest of or for the first time in his entire life

52:03He's halfway through his permanent Republican majority and lost himself You know, Libs you can have Karl Rove. I've been around Just old enough to remember when he was the Steven Miller and one of the most vilified aids literally in the entire nation And I prefer it that way personally. Yeah All right, I think we have roconist any buy. Let's get to it You Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast here's what you missed people wake up and go oh damn Weim hola they changed all of that Yes, it's real. This is a wholesale attack. He is targeting black people in every federal agency. It's wrong Why folks have never allowed that reckoning to last more than a decade catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the black

53:07Information network and download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts This is an iHart podcast guaranteed human