Your questions about the Iran war, answered

0:00Ready and this is the daily off. This is the daily off. This is the daily off. Oh, now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to the daily off. It's Thursday the 26th of March. I'm Zara Saidler. I'm Sam Kuzlowski. This week marks one month since the US-Israeli war with Iran began. As the conflict enters its fourth week, peace deal talks are underway, missile attacks continue across the Middle East, and the economic impact is being felt around the world. Today we're going to do something a little bit different. We are going to bring in the TDA team into the studio to get their biggest questions about the war answered. Alright Sam, I have loved having you here to say I'm Sam Kuzlowski. That was the easiest podcast ever. I'm actually going to kick you out now and get some members of the TDA team who you might not have ever heard on this podcast

1:03to ask us their burning questions because I don't want to just presume what the questions out there are. I want to hear them and then we'll try answer them. Love it. Let's go. Alright, off you go. Hi Rosa. Hello. Come have a seat. Okay, so Rosa, the idea for this podcast actually came up because you and I were having a chat in the office and you asked me a question and so now I very naturally brought you into the studio to ask me on my what your question was. Yeah, by our way, hopefully I can answer it. So I think we hear a lot about peace deals and I was wondering what negotiations actually look like. If you'll see here, you know, negotiations stalled or you know, other lingo touched that. I don't know what negotiations look like. Is Trump in the room? Is someone from Iran in the room? Yeah. Who's there? What's going on? How does this happen? Yeah, great question. So I guess we'll start with the latest news because I think that's the thing that we've seen with the headlines about, which is that Trump has put forward a plan to Iran for a peace deal. And that hasn't been made public, so we don't actually know what's inside of that.

2:06But we do know that it is addressing Iran's ballistic and nuclear programs. Now in terms of you asked about how does the negotiation actually happen, the New York Times has found out that Pakistan is the intermediary. So yeah, it's really interesting. Yeah, yeah. So what happened was Trump proposed this plan through Pakistan. So Pakistan gave it to Iran from the U.S. And why Pakistan? You might be wondering. Yeah. Well, it turns out that Pakistan's head of the army is actually really close with Iran's Islamic revolutionary guard call. And so because there's that relationship, they can act, you know, on behalf of both and pass messages throughout because these two sides are in active conflict. So the likelihood of, you know, the head of Iran's new regime and Trump sitting in an office is very unlikely. This is the way that those negotiations have gone. And we've seen in other conflicts that there are other countries that mediate between. So this time, yeah, it's Pakistan. And so we don't know if Iran's going to actually accept that, that peace deal.

3:11We haven't heard from them that they will when Trump said earlier in the week that he had put forward something Iran called fake news. And so it's very hard to know what's actually happening when we're not in the room and these things aren't made public. All we can go off is what the leaders are saying themselves, which is a deal's been put forward. We don't know what happens next. Yeah. Thank you. That's actually really helpful. Oh, good. Thanks, Rosa. Do you want to check who else out there in the office is ready to come in and ask that question? I will do that. This is a very new way of doing things. It's a new age. Thank you. Okay. So we now have Lucy in the chair. Listeners will be very familiar with you, Lucy. What is your question about the current conflict? My question is, so the US and Israel are both striking Iran. Are they 100% aligned? Could one of those two countries sign a deal and the other one continue the war? Yeah, it's such a good question. I was just talking to Rosa about the facts that there's been a peace plan that's been put forward by the US. We don't even know if Israel's endorsed that peace plan. Yeah. It's co-ridden, co-authored, or if it's just one or the other.

4:13Yeah. I mean, the facts are that the US is Israel's closest ally and they entered this war together. Yeah. And they said that they were entering for the same reason, which was to end Iran's nuclear capability. Yeah. Since that time, though, analysts have pointed out that their motivations might be a bit different. So it does appear that Israel is looking for complete regime change in Iran. Yeah. They want to remove the threat of Iran and its ballistic missiles completely. Yeah. I think you and I have spoken on this part a number of times about the facts that Iran funds and trains a bunch of proxy groups in the Middle East. Things like Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and so Israel has made very clear that they want to end that. Yeah. Whether or not the US wants to go that far, though, we don't really know. And so it does appear that the US is leading those peace negotiations. And just because Israel and the US got into this war together, it doesn't appear that they have to get out together and that, you know, we know Israel is in Lebanon and they've got ground troops invading Lebanon at the moment.

5:13Yeah. Will they remain there if the war ends? We don't have answers to this, but it's a really good question. Yeah. And I mean, the kind of getting into it together, but then maybe pulling out of it separately. It also goes to those ballistic missiles you were talking about where as far as we know, Iran doesn't have the kind of missiles that could go all the way across the ocean to the US. Yeah. But it can strike Israel as we've seen. Exactly. Yeah. Thank you so much, Lucy. Thanks, Sarah. M. A very, very warm seat for you there. Often on the pod. But this time you were messaging me a question from across the office. Yeah. What is it? I wanted to know what are the political implications of this in the region? What are the other big players in the Middle East saying about this? So I've compiled a list of things that they're saying. I guess I'll start with Saudi Arabia because they've been the strongest and their language has been the strongest against Iran. Okay. So interestingly, Saudi Arabia's crown prince is pushing for the war to continue. He thinks that this is a historic opportunity to reshape how the Middle East looks.

6:17Right. And it feels. And he argues that Iran poses a threat, a huge threat to the rest of the region. And so he wants the US to continue this war. I was quite surprised by how strong that rhetoric is. We know that in recent years, Saudi Arabia and Israel have normalized relations a bit. Yeah. But that is very strong words from the Saudi Arabian crown prince there. And a strong ally with the US in recent years. Exactly. Okay. So that's Saudi Arabia. Then we have the UAE. Now, we know that the UAE has been almost hardest hit by this war. Yeah. Australia had to send an aircraft to help protect Australians who are there because the ballistic missiles from Iran to the UAE specifically to Dubai are really significant. A major port for international travel. Yeah. Exactly. Airspace was closed and impacted by that. Exactly. The UAE has said that the constant attacks by Iran have led it to rethink its security and could lead to strengthening ties with the US.

7:21So we had an adviser to the UAE's president say on X that this is the cost of Iran's misguided calculations. So they're suggesting that that's backfired and that the result of Iran hitting the UAE is that they will then pivot to form stronger bonds with the US. The UAE is against the military action, I suppose, that's affecting it directly. Yeah. And that's pushed it to support the US more. Yeah, exactly. And then we have Lebanon, which is in a bit of a different situation. So in regards to Iran, Lebanon has expelled the Iranian ambassador this week. That was the latest news. And they've said that he has no role there at the moment. That said, Israel is pushing forward with a ground invasion of Lebanon and Lebanese authorities are strongly against that action and have pushed back against that action very publicly. And so while they are against what Iran is doing and they are expelling the ambassador, they are absolutely not supportive here of what Israel's plans are for Lebanon.

8:27Okay. So very layered, very complicated. Exactly. And then Qatar finally, they are just supportive of diplomatic relations. They're suggesting that this needs to be settled through diplomatic channels. And they said, we will live next to each other and we will be neighbors and we have to find a way to live next to each other. So they're taking more of that, we need peace for all of us approach. Yeah. Exactly. And it's so fascinating to hear all of that nuance because when you look at a map, all of these players exist side by side, so closely packed in in this part of the world. Yeah. But incredibly different approaches and responses. Exactly. And thanks for your question. Thanks for your answer. We'll be back with the rest of the deep dive after a short note from today's sponsor. All our producer, who is usually on the other side of the studio, was listening into this chat and has a follow-up question about what Lucy just said. What was your question, Laura? Yes. Okay. So Lucy just said that Iran can't hit America because their missiles just can't go far enough geographically.

9:31But can they hit other countries outside of the Middle East? This is one of the most common questions that we get. So I mean, the short answer is that anything is possible. It would be remiss of us to say with certainty that they wouldn't hit other countries. We know Iran has been targeting countries in the Gulf. So for example, the UAE has had the most missiles and Billy and I spoke about that on a pod a few weeks ago. At the moment though, Iran is just targeting US interests in those countries. So things like military bases or airports, whatever it is. They haven't, as we said, hit America. And they haven't indicated that they would in any way try to do that. However, this week, the language shifted a bit. And Iran warned, and I'm reading directly here, that parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations would not be safe for its enemies. So that is really broadening the scope. I mean, that's not just talking about hitting military targets in the Middle East. That's saying that if this continues, they could expand what those targets look like.

10:34And I think the only other thing I would add to that is that even if Iran doesn't directly hit another country with a missile, so we've said that those ballistic missiles can't go that far, we do know that they direct attacks on other countries and that they've been responsible for orchestrating those attacks. So in Australia, authorities found out that Iran was behind a fire bombing attack in Sydney against Sydney's Jewish community. And so behind the scenes, they've been orchestrating attacks. And it could be that those sorts of attacks increase, not necessarily a direct attack on the country. If that makes sense. Okay, yeah, that makes sense. Okay, Brill, thank you, Ola. Thanks, Ola. Sam, welcome back to the podcast. Good to be back. The seat is warm. We've missed you. You and I have been speaking almost every day for the last however long, three weeks about the price of petrol. Of course. That is, of course, because it has shot up exponentially as a result of the war in the Middle East. Specifically, what are you interested in knowing here?

11:34I keep thinking about bringing it back to our situation right here in Australia and trying to pinpoint if there's any thoughts around when fuel prices could actually drop. Like, how long let's say that there was a resolution tomorrow? Yeah. How long will we see these prices for? Yeah, look, don't have a crystal ball. But do have an expert that I spoke to about this. So in our team spoke to David Smith from the University of Sydney. And she basically said what you just put forward. Like, if it ends tomorrow, does that mean that the next day fuel prices drop? Unfortunately, his answer was absolutely not. Got it. It's because the backlog that has resulted from things like the Strait of Hormuz being close for so long and everything just adding up over time means that that backlog will then apply after the war ends as well. So he has suggested that when you shut down any big element of infrastructure, it takes a lot longer to then get it starting again. And so he thinks that it could take quite a while for things to start feeling normal again in terms of prices.

12:37Of course, we're talking about if that war does end, we don't know if it will. And so if it doesn't, then we can expect these prices to just grow and grow and grow. If it does end though, he said it's even possible that those prices will never normalize and that we will have a new normal of $2.60 or whatever insane amount we have all been filling up at. That will be the new normal. Crazy. Like a new precedent. A new precedent that people are looking at going, well, it could happen again. Yeah. And I mean, at one point, petrol cost under a dollar. Yeah. And that was the norm. And then it shut off and never really fluctuated that dramatically down again. And then of course, we had COVID and all of these things have forced the price up. And hypothetically, this could be one of those events that the new normal is that you don't get petrol under $2.30. I've been seeing a lot of really interesting stuff around about how the increase in the cost of fuel can also impact things like MRI machines or other elements in our society that don't directly take petrol from a petrol station

13:40but need the things on those ships to operate. Yeah. I mean, a flight to Melbourne, for example. If you've looked at getting a flight, they're going up quite significantly. Interesting. Sam, while you're here, we may as well wrap up the pod. Let's do it. I do hope that these questions were the ones that our listeners were thinking because, you know, our team is a bunch of young people who are experiencing and feeling and thinking about the same things as all of you are. So hopefully these have answered your biggest questions. Unreal. So thank you for indulging us with this slightly different episode of The Daily Ours today. If there are questions that we didn't answer, throw them under the question box in Spotify and I will be sure to answer them as soon as possible. We'll be back later today with your evening headlines, where I'm sure some of the topics of today's pod will come up again until then have a beautiful day. My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arranda Bunjelang Calcutune woman from Gadigal Country.

14:41The Daily Ours acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander nations. We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.