WTA US Open Semifinal Picks – 9/9/26 (Ep. 704)

0:00the tennis gambling podcast on the sports game podcast. Now we're going to be brought to you by the free real football contest 3K up for grabs and today at sports game.com slash free roll. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast. Showing the sports game podcast. So now we're currently Wednesday night. September 9th or an 8 PM Eastern time. I'm Roscarri Schellier who here to us, which gears talking about the women semi finals taking place on Thursday. The men semi is taking place on Friday. They're going to alternate for the rest of the week for the tournament. Or here to break down the upcoming matches. They are very nice on paper. Hopefully they're entertaining. But either way, it's been a very fun last couple of days in the US open. Or in getting into the women's upcoming matches for Thursday in a few minutes. Before that, the reminder to support the show. Like subscribe on YouTube. Also find the podcast audio only on Spotify or Apple. And we usually be reading any review there. Pause check out the merch store. We have a lot of great tennis merchandise on the merch store. Sweatships, T-shirts, mugs and hats, different colors.

1:00Very affordable. Think like the options that we have on there. And last but not least, make sure to check out the fundraiser that we're having as Estrubians trying to raise some money for Columbia after the earthquake happened. So check out the actual fundraiser by going to sports, combined with a small slash relief to help out today. So moving on into the recap of the last episode. Now for the lock and dog, we're going to recap the plays where We're going to recap the plays. We are not going to fully deep dive them. We're going to try to keep this consistent. We're going to keep the women's matches together. And the men's matches together. So break down the lock and dog quickly. Segway into the women's quarter finals onward into the women's semis. For the lock and dog, though, ended up splitting. Oh, he had Tiafah money line at minus 142. Epic comeback. I'll get into that tomorrow. But either way, Tiafah, if job done at minus 142, cashed lock. For the dog a bit annoying. We did predict Koshanov would win the retirement with all blocks would quit midway through the match. And he did as Koshanov won in two and a half sets.

2:00Alcharez, though, lost the nepik to Shelton. Not going to deep dive that either. For the point is Alcharez sabotaged the parlay. I'd only regret to read it all because Alcharez is the greatest fifth set player of all time. And he lost to Shelton. He had a mini-break lead in the V tie break as well. Didn't get it done. But either way, the point is Koshanov won as easily as I thought he would. But Alcharez as a deducer sabotage the parlay is what it is. But overall thought that the episode went well. And we're going to segue into the women's quarterfinals right now. So moving on to the quarter final recap. We had a couple of marathon matches all throughout the quarterfinals. Every single quarter final match on the women's side did not end in straightsats. So for the actual first match, SavoLanka got pushed to the brink by the Wimleton champion. In Nozcava, SavoLanka got the job done in three. One of the finalists at tie break, 10-7. It was close. It was tied three-three. Then SavoLanka won three straight points. Parade is in separation. And eventually got the job done on her first match point.

3:02I won't point out though. Nozcava was up a break into the third set. And SavoLanka broke back into the three-four return game. Nozcava though was two games away. But unfortunately that was too far away. SavoLanka came back and won. And Pagula though lost the first set to Navarro. Came back in one in three. Nice win for her. I cannot say it was that dramatic. Pagula I will point out was actually up a break a couple of times in the second set. Got the job in the breaking again to win six-four. And then eventually did end up getting down a break early in the third set. Broke back immediately. Then broke again to go up four-two and held on to win. And then broke out off a break point in the final service game. But got the job done six-three in the final set. So those two matches were fun. Moving on into the matches for Wednesday. Robacana lost the first set to Zhang. And then she won in three. Important win for Robacana. Because not only is that her first ever US Open semifinal appearance.

4:03She's officially the new number one player in the world. Regardless of what happens moving forward. She is the number one player after the US Open. Congratulations to her. Well deserved. Sabelanka we know of course can still win the US Open title. But the point is Robacana now. New number one happy for her. And either way. Definitely a fun match as Zhang. After winning back to back sets in a five-nothing comeback. Eventually ran out of gas. And she ended up losing in three to Robacana. Last but not least arguably the match of the round. Either this one or the Sabelanka match. But on Dreeva won the first set six-two against Gough. Then had a double match point in the second set tie break. She also had a break point in the five five return game. The potentially served out for the match didn't get it. But either way we had double match point at six five and seven six in the tie break. Didn't get it. Gough ended up winning the tie break. And then eventually Gough, double broker and one six-two in the final set. Fun match. Nice result from Gough. A classic Gough match.

5:04We're shooting to look that great. But she just outwilled the opposition and got the job done in three. So all four quarter-finals ended up going the distance. Very fun round on the women's side. And Gough got the job done. So we have a decent amount of Americans left. So far into the US Open. Both men and women. We've Shelton and Tiafo. Somebody's guaranteed to make the final out of them. And we have Pagula and Gough. In theory it is possible to get an American final between Pagula and Gough. So that's an option there. But either we'll see how the Americans look over the next couple of days. For the recap though, of the outright for the women's events so far. Yeah, we absolutely cooked. We made a lot of money for the outright. Now I will point out we did pick a lot of chalk which worked out perfectly because we had pure chalk into the event. I know that the women's tour is viewed as being upset, heavy, and normally I agree. But I thought it was a pretty weak overall field in terms of depth. And as a result, we ended up getting a lot of winners at pretty decent plus money for the sake of the quarters.

6:07First quarter we had Savileka by herself at plus 110. That worked out as Shandida winning in three. Second quarter we did lose Mukova at 450. But we had Pagula at plus 200. That worked out well too. Third quarter we had a guaranteed winner actually. We had Andriva at 410. Double match point would have been nice. But we still had Gough at 175. No complaints there. Last but not least we had a bomb. We had Spayateka at 150. But we also had Robocona at a crazy price or a minor that she retired in one of her last matches prior to the US Open. And we bought the dip. Robocona was at 490 to win the quarter. And chew on. So either way we ended up sweeping the quarters. We got all four of them right. All four plus money including a nice 490 on Robocona. That's definitely a solid outright episode for us. And we're not done yet. Even though Andriva was at 410 and that would have been a nice price for the quarter. We do have a silver lining because we still have Gough to win the event at plus 500.

7:11Now we did lose 5 Tech at 550 and Mukova at plus 3000. But we did sacrifice a little bit of value on the quarter outright for the sake of our outright tournament winner. So Gough is still in it somehow at 5 to 1. Against Robocona in the next round. Not going to be easy. But definitely a fun women's event so far. Mainly chalk. It feels like the men's and women's events kind of switch places because normally the men's event is pretty chalky. But of course Alcarus ended up losing. Sinner's not here. We have Gashanov and Asemi. We have Tiafo and Asemi. A lot of I'd say randomness on the men's side. Women's side though pure chalk. But you know what good for us. Chalk pays sometimes and it will pay for us throughout the entire quarters and hopefully for the title as Gough is still alive at 5 to 1. However, this is going to wrap it up though for the recap of the outright. So we'll move on into the actual breakdown of the upcoming matches in a few minutes. Before that, the amount of the brought to you by our sponsor. So check out our sponsor edge boost. The Visa debit card. Go for online gambling.

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9:15the phrase that pays. Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish going to the recap of the women's quarter finals and move on into the preview of the women's semis moving on to the first match on the card we have a match up taking place between Pagula and Saba Lanka Saba Lanka minus 178 I see Pagula at around plus 161 over under in games around 21.5 or 22.5 even money on the over 21.5 though is minus 131 sets Fred Saba Lanka to nothing is a plus 153 Pagula to win a set is minus 174 over 2.5 sets. Now for the head to the face off a decent amount of times and Saba Lanka has normally gone the better of Pagula she is 9 and 4 lifetime in the 13 career meetings. However, Pagula has won two of the last three a she beat her in Berlin earlier this year on grass lost in the WTA finals last year in three but

10:20beater and Wuhan in three as well in fact each of the last four meetings have gone to a third set including the US open last year a Saba Lanka beat Pagula in three after dropping the first set so Pagula has given Saba Lanka problems before I'd say she normally fall short but the matches are competitive and as a result you are looking at what should be a fun match up on paper now for the path so far both players have been quite good Saba Lanka. Saba Lanka has been dominant to a very easy path though beat a story in straight sets and that are beating an unknown in the second round there in straight sets as well. Pagula has dropped a couple of sets and that are beating Ruse in straight sets beat Kennen in straight sets which was an absolute gift I mean Kennen stinks. I should be Fernandez in three lost the first set there handle it came back in one be Kristaya in straight sets and beat Navarro in three so for the match itself Saba Lanka should be favor I mean the problem is she is not one a grand slam all year so we have seen her get to this point but she tends to choke any of the semis or the final but she has won back to back US open titles so maybe she'll finally get the job done and win her first grand slam of the year.

11:44Now for the pricing I think it makes sense I think Saba Lanka should be favor she's being Pagula multiple times in the US open before including the final in the US open a couple of years ago so I think Saba Lanka will win Pagula is simply put reliable she's consistent but Saba Lanka definitely has the fire power to bully her around the court and we know Saba Lanka serve has given Pagula problems in the past so based on that I am going to go with Saba Lanka in this one I think she'll win I do not see it being easy to do. I don't mind the over they've had four straight three setters and we have seen a couple of seven five and seven sixes in those matches I like the over in this one I think Saba Lanka will get the job done I'll go Saba Lanka in a very competitive two I will not pick three but I'll go Saba Lanka like seven six six four something like that but I don't mind the over in this one. Pagula can definitely win a set and maybe even win the match I mean she has split the last four against Saba Lanka and she's won two of the last three. So it's not like this is some impossible task given to Pagula.

12:48Maybe she wins for once in the US Open crowd behind her, but I'll go with Sabalanka, but I'll go with Sabalanka in the over as my thoughts for this one. Moving on to the next matchup, we have golf taking on Robocona. Robocona shockingly is a dog. A Robocona is around plus 1-11. Golf's around minus 1-23 give or take and you're looking at the over under being around 1-22 and a half. The set total, the over 2-1-1 sets around plus 1-30 for the game spread. I see basically minus 1-1-1-1 for golf plus 1-1-1-1 for Robocona. If you want to go for the actual team totals, you can get either player 12-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. They played about a month ago, give or take in Toronto, and we saw Robocona win in 3, but they played in Toronto 4 years ago and got 1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. Not many meetings between them. In fact, the Toronto meeting that Robocona won was the only meeting between them 4 years

13:49and Robocona did end up having a great comeback as she won in 3. For the path so far, golf was cruising, dropped her first set against Andriva. No shame in that, she almost lost, but a nice comeback win nonetheless. Beat Sunmes on round 1, the Pendoza competitive straight sets in round 2, beat a Buksa in round 3, Yolvich in straight sets. So beat Buksa in straight sets, beat Yolvich in straight sets, and then fought off some match points against Andriva as she came back and won. For Robocona, same exact story. That was the first time she's lost a set all tournament and then beating a Froden in round 1, beat a Buzas Menero in straight sets as well, beat Stara Boutseva in straight sets, beat Osaka in straight sets, and beat Zhang in 3. Both players are playing very well. The head tag is really kind of non-existent, but most recent meeting about a month ago, Robocona did win in 3. Now look, simply put, I'm shocked, Gopps favor in this match. She was my pick to win the event, so I'm rooting for her.

14:52But at the same point, Robocona just became number one in the world. And I don't know how she's a dog to Gopher. We just saw her win on a hard court against her. We know Gopps service still a liability and has not been as big of a liability so far in this event. But Robocona is playing out of her mind so far in this matchup and Gopps still only won 31% of her second serve points against Andriva, and she double-faulted 12 times. You can't give away that many points to Robocona. I think that's going to go poorly for Gopps, to read off the serving number so far, Robocona's better and basically every area. She's winning roughly 10% more for her serve points and roughly 4% more second serve points. And to compare, break points faced, Robocona's face 12, Gopps face 24. So I think Robocona should be favor in this one. Plus 1-11 is simply put incorrect. I think that it's an argument about maybe a pick them at minus 110 apiece. But Gopph, I get the crowds behind her. I get she's one of US Open before. But I do think Robocona is the more talented player and with the firepower she possesses,

15:57she can definitely take control of a lot of rallies against Gopph and I think that she'll do so in route to a win. I hope I'm wrong because we have Gopphed when the event in 5-1. Robocona is playing out of her mind, new number one in the world and she's a dog immediately in the first match after becoming number one in the world. I disagree with it. I think Robocona should be favored. I am going to go with Robocona here at plus money. Gopph can definitely win. I mean, they had a war about a month ago. But I do think Gopph should be getting plus money and the fact that she's blindly minus 120. Mainly because she's in America, I think is an insane misprice. Gopph is a money line choice here as my play for this one. I'm going to wrap it up though for the breakdown of those two matches. I don't mind the over now and either. I would go Robocona in three. So I don't mind the over 2.5 sets. But the price is pretty cheap. So that's kind of why I stayed away from it. But I don't mind maybe even going for the over at like 22.5 or give or take.

16:58I mean, 22.5 is minus 110 minus 111. I don't mind that. I think you'll get a marathon. That's kind of my thoughts on that one. I know you're wrapping up though for the break down the woman semi-centen who went into the lock and dog picks for getting to the lock and dog or mine are the brought to by our sponsor check out on fantasy. So they have a brand new promo for the interval season. Check out the opportunity to become a millionaire down on a dog jump into keep your million. Start the million dollars and head your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side of hit zero. You're officially out. They get their all 20 rounds and you walk away with numbers left in bonus funds and a reminder great sign up deal because the most likes this can now get a 50% deposit match up to one came on his funds are on fantasy promo code SGPN. We're also worth by CalShi on CalShi trade spreads money ones total features a much more great prices for college and for pro football also check out the great sign up deal trade 25 bucks and a 25 for free over on CalShi if you use cottage PN at sign up that's CalShi promo code SGPN.

18:00Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish going through the preview of the women's semis in the US open time to move on into the lock and dog picks for the lock I'm going to go with the team total into that sabbelink a match give me sabbelink a team total over 12 and a half at minus 110 absolute bargain a sabbelink is going to over this number in six of her last seven matches against Pugula ironically the only time she didn't go over was the last match which went to three sets. So the one time she actually going under she got bagled in the third set and it was still a marathon but you've seen four straight head to head matches between them not end in straight sets. Pugula has been close to beating her in the US open before but she normally fall short we saw three center last year even the the US open final had I believe it was two separate seven fives in there or seven six and a seven five point is though I think sabbelink has a couple of past to get there either she wins with a seven five or seven six in straight sets she goes to three and at that point she either wins or loses and you're

19:03probably in good shape but the fact is she's going over this number in six of her last seven against Pugula I think minus 110 is very generous I'll go for that as my lock for the show for the dog we're back on on the money line at plus one eleven I'd be shocked if she closed as a dog in this one golf has been good don't get me wrong even entering the event she was in good form but the fact is Robocona was disrespected pre tournament because of injury and she looks fully healthy new number one in the world yes she dropped the set to Zhang but she ended up winning the last two sets pretty comfortably and she's dominating the serve numbers by comparison to golf she's winning roughly 10% more first serve points and roughly 4% more second serve points golf though double faulted twelve times against undriva if that happens again she's got problems and Robocona also just beater in the three sets about a month ago like the overall price I think Robocona should close like minus 120 but plus one eleven is a pure home advantage over reaction as far

20:05as I'm concerned I will fade God for the price give me the new number one as a dog somehow at plus one eleven as my dog for the show once again the locks and be on Savilein got team total over 12 and a half a minus 110 for the dog in your back in the money line at plus one eleven and wrap it up though for the show back once again for the men's semis in the US open till next time good old tall view and all of your bets bye everyone