WTA US Open Final Picks – 9/11/26 (Ep. 706)

0:00The tennis gambling podcast and the sports game podcast so network is brought to you by the free roll football contest three cab for grabs and today at sports gambling's comm slash free roll. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast and sports game podcast and now we're currently early Friday morning's 10th or 11th around 2 30 AM Eastern time. I'm Roscarri Show. They're break down the women's title match in the US Open between Robocona and Sabalanka. Break down that match taking place on Saturday. We're day early. The men's semis are taking place today. Women's finals is going to be on Saturday. But you know what? I had some free time figured why not might as well get the show out of the way because we already have lines for the actual final. So get into the breakdown of that match in a few minutes for that. They're minor to sports the show. Like subscribe on YouTube also find the podcast audio only on Spotify or Apple SGP and tennis game podcast and we'll be reading interview to help the show grow on those two platforms. Also check out the merch store. We have a lot of great tennis merchandise there.

1:00Sweat shirts, t-shirts, mugs, hats, different colors. Very affordable. Think you'll like the options that we have and also a reminder to check out the fundraiser that we're having as a full company as we're trying to raise some money for Colombia after the earthquake kind of destroyed a decent portion of it. So check out the ones again calls once again. If you want to help donate, go to sports gambling's comm slash relief to help out today. So moving on into the recap of what happened for the women's semi-final matches or a reminder the men's semis haven't happened yet. So those lock and dog picks are still pending. But for the women's episode we crushed it and they're sweeping nice easy I'd say winners for us. For the Lockwood Sableanka team total over 12 and a half minus 110. Every match she has against Pagula is exactly the same. It's competitive and Sableanka usually wins. And we've seen this in the US open the last couple of years. They went to the three sets last year. They had the final couple of years ago. 7575. The point is Sableanka just seems to always be there. And the fact is we know Pagula is usually good to keep at least one

2:04set competitive. That's what happened. A Sableanka they were on serve at 5.5. Sableanka eventually won the first at 75 then broke a couple of times to win the second set. Handily 62. But either way, never end out. Sableanka did get to 7 in the first set. And that resulted in a nice easy win for us. For the dog not exactly once again that straight forward. But Rabaka has been showing in the last round or two how she's willing to basically just lose the first set and then come back and win in three. Same exact result that we saw in Canada when they played it about a month ago where Goth won the first set. Rabaka did not panic in Toronto and she came back and she won in three. Fun match in general. Rabaka knows the new number one in the world and she definitely lived up to it in the final two sets of the match. Did choke serving for the match. But no big deal. Goth missed a slam by about 20 feet on match point. And that resulted in a nice break and a win for Rabaka. I still can't believe she was plus one eleven when the lines opened up. She closed the like minus 120 which is what I

3:07thought she should have been. But I know Goth had the home crowd behind her in America. The Rabaka was literally just I'd say she just became the number one player in the world. And she was immediately a dog in her first match afterwards on her best surface. So thank you. We appreciate it. The plus one eleven and either way a nice sweep for us. A four of the matches though just to go into a bit of a deeper dive. Pagula really couldn't do anything. I'm not going to blame Pagula because Saba Lengu just played out of her mind. Saba Lanka won 74% first serve points and 65% second serve points. Pagula had one break point in the entire match. Of course she did not convert it. But Pagula gave it a run early then eventually the wheels fell off. She only won 24% of her second serve points. That's not going to get it done against Saba Lanka. But she's playing very well. She's playing with a player who one is annoyed that she'll also remember one ranking. And two is a player who's desperate to win her third straight U.S. Open because she is not one of Grand Slam all year. It's pretty fitting

4:11on the women's side that we started the year with a Robocana Saba Lanka hard court final in the Aussie Open. And now we've come full circle and we have the same exact outcome to end the year between Robocana and Saba Lanka. Should be a fun match up though. But Robocana looks great so far in the event and to try to keep her rolling here into the final on Saturday. That's for Robocana. Definitely not an easy win. But Robocana is at least as far as I'm concerned. She's definitely improved the mental aspect of her game lately because normally when you're looking at Gough in this environment in New York, it can get rowdy. And when Robocana historically had some issues when it came to her mental focus and sometimes she would waver when the going got tough. But she lost the first set. She didn't panic. She was up a break in the second set. Blue that too. And said, you know what? We're going to break again when the set then move on to the third. And she did a good job. Just simply put, like you're looking at Robocana who blew a couple of break points midway through into the three to return game. Then she ended up getting the break finally. Then she got broken

5:15back serving for it. But then I said a second ago, she broke back again. So Robocana's definitely had, she's always had the physical talent and the overall fluidity of her her background strokes to just dominate the tour. The question was if the mental, that's a component of her game would catch up to the physical skills that she has. And knock on wood, she's one match away from winning two grand slams in the same year. But golf, well, she fought hard. At the end of the day, golf, we know, I don't think she has as much talent as Robocana. She wins by just sheer determination and sheer grit. And she almost did it again in this one. Golf actually won 64% of her second serve points, which is insanely high for her standards. And by comparison, Robocana only 156%, but golf only won 58% for her serve and Robocana won 76% for her serve. And that was the story of the match. But overall, it was even at the end of the day, you're looking at the total points and Robocana outgained her by blue who was six in that one. But point is nice when for Robocana, as she's,

6:18once again, number one, no matter what happens in this match, you can save a linka, but it would be a nice stamp to end her grand slam season to start with a winner and then end with a winner in the Aussie Open and in the US Open. So overall, a pretty fun overall collection of matches in the semi-finals. I'll put it this way. The Pogula one wasn't exactly the most competitive, but it was nice to see just Sabelanka playing at arguably her peak. I mean, she played out of her mind in that match. And if you're watching, and you can tell as it was unfolding, Pogula can't do anything against this girl. And that's what happened in this one. And we had the exact, I don't see polar opposite, but we had a pretty nice blend of dominant performance and just a solid war into the semis. And we saw Gough and Robocana push into the brink and Robocana got the job done as she ended up winning in three, but a nice sweep for us and overall solid episode, obviously, we'll try to sweep again for the final. Unfortunately, the silver lining is we did win the dog, but at what cost? Because we

7:19had Gough to win the tournament at five to one. And of course, that ended up going down in smoke. But at least we did win every single quarter that we had. It was pure chalk, but Robocana was 490, which was a very nice price as well. Pogula was 2 to 1. Nice profitable tournament for us for the outrides. And we'll move on into the final in a few minutes. Checking the comments section though quickly. I see Josh stopping by. I see Drew stopping by. And overall, we're going to get into the picks in a second, but I wanted to recap what happened in these semis first. Before we get into the actual breakdown of the two matches for the one match. I mean, for Saturday, the title match, or my other brought to you by our sponsor, check out Edge Boost. So it is the Veeze debit card built for online gambling. I don't have to point five percent cash back on eligible gaming spending. And zero dollar deposit fee plus instant 24, 7, 365 access deposits that clear in minutes. Also a great sign up deal. If you are new to Edge Boost, sign up today at you. It's got to spend it sign up. They had an exclusive offer of a hundred dollar deposit match. Simply sign up deposit $100.

8:22What support know that it should be in send you and they'll max the $100. No questions asked at you was that I open with it should be in for a one time $100 deposit match. We're also brought to you by Clutch Parallel Ace. Clutch Parallel Ace have you covered with data back predictions, predictions are updated live during the games, which means we'll be getting updated odds, their repitch basket and possession. Also make sure to check out the very easy and simple news dashboard on the platform. One stop shop for research, plus the opportunities and a reminder, best part, get them on free with the code at www.hutchparallelase.com promo code SGPN. Hey, the Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finished going through the recap of the women's

9:23semis. Time to move on into the matchup between Robocona and Savalanka for the US Open title. Now for the actual head Ted, it has been very close in the head Ted. Currently Savalanka is a head 10 to 7, but Robocona has been good lately again, Savalanka. Savalanka won the last meeting in Miami, but I checked on the last two one in Miami and indeed Wells, but of course Robocona won the most important one this year. The Aussie Open come back in three. Robocona has actually quietly had some success against her. I said Savalanka is won the last two. Robocona had won the previous two. They've split the last eight meetings, the last 10 meetings actually. So five and five and the last 10, which suggests this match should be an absolute banger and should be a very competitive one from start to finish for the odds though. Savalanka is about minus 148. Robocona is around plus 117 for the over under 23 and a half games minus 110 on the over minus 121 on the under for the actual game spread. I see around minus a half for Savalanka minus

10:27139. Robocona plus a half is plus 107 for the over 2.5 sets. I see around plus 125. Give or take tie break is at plus 123 for the team total is Savalanka at around minus 140 for the team total over 12 and a half under plus 105. For Robocona, I see 12 and a half at around minus 113 on both sides. Now for the matchups in general, you're looking at the path so far and Savalanka has been dominant. She's only lost one set into the entire event. Coincidentally, it was a solid player who's wimbledon champion in Noscova, but she ended up being Pagulans straight sets, be Noscova in three final set tie break, be Tausan, beat Rokomova, be a relative unknown Russian player, Yatseko in straight sets and Beesorio in straight sets. So initially a pretty easy path. I mean, no offense to Tausan. We know in America, she can be pretty dangerous. But the fact is Savalanka got her into the once again, round 16, which was a pretty decent draw for her. And Noscova was tough.

11:31She got through that and she owns Bagula, not exactly a shock that happened. Robocona though was cruising early on, be floating, be it Buzas, a Monero, and then a beating, a star of Bootsava, all in straight sets. So Saka, she destroyed in straight sets. Then Zhang won the first set. She came back into one and got one the first set. She came back and she won. So based on what we've seen recently, one argument it could be made that Savalanka first set should be an option because Savalanka has been really good throughout the entire tournament in first sets. In fact, you're looking at Savalanka so far into this entire run and she has not dropped a first set at any point. So Savalanka, when the first set and the match could be intriguing, if you think she's going to win, Pulsman overbought, and it's not going to be, I'd say, that worried about winning the first set, because she's proven back to back rounds against Zhang, a former Grand Slam finalist, and also against Gough, who's won two Grand Slams. And she's proven that even when she drops the first set, she can come back and win. So I do think the urgency will definitely be on Savalanka side into this first set. I also want to point out that you're looking at the overall serving numbers

12:37and Rebalka has actually been better in terms of first serve points percentage wise. She's winning 79.9% of her first serve points. Savalanka is at 72.3%. However, there's a tradeoff. Savalanka is landing roughly 8% more for serves. So Savalanka is winning a smaller percentage, but she lands a lot more of them. So that kind of balances out. But Savalanka is also better on the second serve, winning roughly 4% more second serve points. Now for the break points face, they both have not faced many. Rebalka in his face 17. Savalanka's face 21. Both players have been quite good at serving, so far in the event and a reminder of Savalanka only faced one break point against Pagula in the the entire semi-final. Now for the match up, Rebalka of course has had success against Savalanka in Grand Slam this year because she won in the Aussie Open. However, Savalanka had a lead in that one and kind of let it go. So the question is if Savalanka is going to choke or not in a Grand Slam final as a minus 150 favorite give or take? Or will she finally win her first Grand Slam of the

13:42year and silence a couple of the doubters? Also a bit of a chip on her shoulder after she lost an opponent ranking to Rebalka no matter who wins this match, Rebalka will be number one next week. So you know are you this bit of a chip on her on her shoulder? Kind of similar to like Michael Jordan beating Carl Mollon in the finals after Mollon won the MVP. But the argument is their crazy athletes may be an extra piece of motivation might help along the way. But for the match up in itself, I think it's going to be a pretty simple over for me. I see a very close match. I think we end up getting three sets in this one personally. You are looking at each of the meetings being pretty competitive this year. And in fact, I want to point out that in the head Ted, 10 of the 17 career meetings did not end in straight sets, including two of the three meetings this year, which did not end in straight sets. So 10 and seven to the over two and a half sets and it's plus 125. I really don't mind that. I think Sabahlenka and Rebalka know both have moments. And I think one of getting another war like we saw into the Aussie open. However, the question is pretty

14:46simple. Do I think Sabahlenka is going to win? I think she so far has played better than Rebalka in this event. The problem is 140 in change feels very expensive considering the fact that Rebalka is number one in the world. And the fact that Rebalka and we know has given Sabahlenka problems winning seven career head to head meetings. So I think the answer is pretty simple for me. I think it's going to be close. I would pick Sabahlenka. But for that price at minus 143, it has to be Rebalka in her past. I think 143 is insane. I think that she should be like minus 120 minus 125. She should be favorite. But I think Rebalka and getting this respected against Goff, we saw that went a bunch of steam came on her and she ended up winning a minus 120. And now we have this match or Abakina is basically like plus 120 and it feels very disrespectful to the number one player in the world who also won the only hardcore grand slam this year. So Sabahlenka though,

15:47we know is one back to back US Open titles. She's very comfortable in the spot. We'll see how she looks at this time around. But for the actual value, I think I have to go with Rebalka for the price. I really just don't see this price being warranted. I think Sabahlenka should be a favorite. But I can't take 143. I just can't do it. I got to go with Rebalka at this price. Even if I think that Sabahlenka is going to win, I think it's more of a coin flip. And I think Sabahlenka will eventually outlast her in three. I could be wrong once I got it before the over. But minus 140 something is something that I just cannot take on Sabahlenka here in this matchup, which has all of the I'd say characteristics of a potential war. You might get a better one in Sabahlenka mid match if it's in the third set at some point. So keep it on for that. But for me, I think for the value alone, it's got to be your Bacchina. But I prefer the over item on the team total route in this one. But I do think that for the pricing, Rebalka should be cheaper. So 120, I think is a

16:49pretty good deal. They're up and up though for the breakdown of the woman's final in the US Open time to move on into the lock and dog picks. Forget into the lock and dog or amount of the brook to buy a sponsor, check it on fantasy. If you want to be a millionaire, the football season, down on the actual platform, the app and keep jump into the keep your million promo. Start the million dollars and head your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. But if you had zero, you're out, make the roll 20 rounds in your walk with whatever's left in bonus funds and a reminder, a nice sign up deal. You've got some words in select states. You can now get 50% deposit match up to one K bonus funds on fantasy promo code SGPN. We're also worth to buy CalShi. Trade spreads, money ones, hotels, features them much more on CalShi. You can do Parallels on there as well. Great prices for college football in for the NFL. Also a reminder to check out the great sign up deal. Trade's one of my bucks and get 25 for free over on CalShi. If you use a code that should be on its sign up, it's CalShi. Kale, SHI promo code SGPN.

17:51Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finished going through the preview. The woman's final news open between Rebaka and Sabbelanka. Time to move on into the lock and dog picks. Said before, I thought the Sabbelanka money line was a little bit too expensive, but I did think she was going to win. I'm going to run back the play we had last episode. I'm going to go Sabbelanka team total once again this time over 12 and a half at minus 136. Sabbelanka has had a bunch of wars lately against top 10 opponents. In fact, she's going to over this team total in six of her last seven hard court meetings against top 10 opponents. We saw her go over this against Noskiva and against Bagula. But Sabbelanka usually wins these matches, but they're never easy. And we saw that the last two rounds. I like the fact that she tends to go over six and one to the team total over against top tier competition like Rebaka. Also, want to point out Sabbelanka, win or lose has gone over this team total in each over four grand slam title matches,

18:51who each of her last four grand slam title matches. Couple of tough losses in there, the keys for example, and of course to Rebaka earlier this year. And Sabbelanka still went over. So based on that, win or lose, I see a very close matchup that might go three. And I think Sabbelanka has a couple of paths to get there. Either she wins close like we saw against Bagula goes three and you're in good shape, win or lose the match. But either way, the team total is cheaper than the money line. And I think it's a good price. Give me Sabbelanka team total over as my lock for the show. For the dog I alluded to it before, it does overlap a bit with the lock. Give me the over two and a half sets at plus one twenty five. Bit cheap, but I understand it. Once again, the over two and half sets is ten and seven in the head to head. So we tend to see marathons here. And we have seen two of the three meetings this year. Go to a third set as well. Rebaka has been involved in a couple of close matches lately. Went to three sets against Zhang and against Gauf. So recently, she hasn't published some sets lately, which I think does increase the chances of it happening again here on a Saturday. And also I mentioned a grand slam final trend for Sabbelanka. Each of

19:58her back in his last, each of her back in his three career grand slam title matches did not end in straight sets. So her back in his head wore after war in these in these spots in grand slam finals. And three of Sabbelanka's left four grand slam title matches also did not end in straight sets. A lot of trends here that I think support the over I like the over anyway, because I think both players are going to bring the ray game, which should result in a very back and forth battle between two players with a ton of firepower. But for me, I see a close match up either way. Give me the over two and a half sets as my dog for the show. So once again, the locking dog for the women's US Open Final walks in to be on Sabbelanka team total over 12 and a half minus 136. For the dog, give me Sabbelanka and Rebaka over two and a half sets at plus 125. They're wrap it up though for the show back once again for the men's final. We'll do that after, of course, the semi final matches take place on Saturday. Till next time, good old tall of you and all of your bets. Bye, Roll.