ATP US Open Final Picks – 9/12/26 (Ep. 707)

0:00The 10th ScanLinning podcast and the Sports Game Podcast network is brought to you by the free referral football contest. Three cap for grabs into today at Sports Game Podcasts.com slash free roll. And welcome everyone to the 10th Scan Podcast. We're on Sports Game Podcast. Now we're currently Saturday morning, December 12th, around 11 a.m. Eastern time. I'm Roscaro Shulke. They're breakdown the final episode of the US Open. We're here to break down the men's final on Sunday between Shelton and Zverev. So break down that match taking place on Sunday. Our reminder, the women's final is taking place on Saturday. Men's final is taking place on Sunday. We did the women's episode already yesterday. So you're on my thoughts on their Bach and Encevelinke match. We are decobrated to check that episode out. But we're back once again here to break down the men's final and we'll see what happens. Before we get into the actual breakdown of that match and recap what happened in the semi-final matches on Friday. Our reminder to check out the fundraiser that we're doing for SGPN for Columbia.

1:02This is if you want to help out the cause, go to Sports Game Podcasts.com. So I sure leave to help out today. So moving on into the recap of the lock and dog picks for the men's semis. Overall decent episode. We got a lot of it right. But unfortunately we did not sweep for the lock a painful loss. We had the Gashav and Zverev over 37.5 and minus 121. We just need to get Sean off to win a set. And unfortunately he punted away the second set tie break and the third set tie break. He played well as a whole but Zverev was just much better on the big points. Gashav led 5-3 in the second set tie break and he led 6-4 in the third set tie break. Two set points. And he blew it. I ended up losing in straight sets. Zverev is very good at tie breaks. Gashav is not. And we saw Gashav basically just break a couple of four hands on these big points. But Gashav lock anytime you're up 5-3 and 6-4 in two separate tie breaks.

2:02You got to like your chances to win at least one set instead. It didn't happen as he ended up losing in straights. So it is what it is. But no regrets. Gashav had opportunities in those tie breaks and failed. So pick a ball off there as Zverev did win three. Nothing for the dog though nice and easy win. We had Shelton to win and both players to win a set. At plus 130 the exact script I thought was going to happen. Atiyahva came out firing. He won the first set and then Shelton killed him for the rest of the match as Shelton did eventually break. Currency of a double fall to win the match in four which we had. So either way nice one for the dog. Not asleep though. Once again the lock was a very good read as far as I'm concerned. But Gashav just choked and a bunch of big spots in the tie break is what it is. But now we move on into the title match on Sunday. Want to recap though the matches in particular individually of four of the semis. Well, Kishano at the end of the day played well. I mean you're looking at the actual numbers here and Kishano have actually landed. 74% for serve and the problem they got right into was he only won 50% second serve points.

3:06So when he landed the first serve he was in a great spot because he won 78% of those points. The problem was the second service kind of done doing and it felt like whenever he did not land a first serve. Zerab had a golden opportunity to win a point and Kishano could not get into really any of the same situations with Zerab serve because Zerab won 75% for serving 60% second serve and Zerab's always a high percentage for serve guy. He landed 68% for serve. He had 15 aces like he ended up getting broken one time in the entire match. Cursey of a double fault. But I believe that's the only time he's been broken in basically the last three matches combined. Give or take so Zerab has been serving out of his mind. Kishano had a hard time actually creating chances over the course of the match. Same with Zerab. I mean Zerab didn't break him for the last two sets or for the last set and a half either. But the point is there every day has been playing very well. Yes, the path these had to actually reach the final is a joke.

4:09But you're looking at the season that he's had and he had the collapse against Alcoraz in the semis of the Aussie open in five sets. He won the French open first ever Grand Slam lost in the final in Wimbledon to center and now he's in the final again. Shelton so you're looking at Zerab was having an incredible season in terms of Grand Slam. You can argue that the results outside of Grand Slam have not been that great. But the point is you're looking at Zerab who. Assuming he gets the job done on. Sunday he would be three matches away from completing the calendar Grand Slam like he's had a really really good season. Yes, I understand that a lot of it had to do with the injuries to Alcoraz and to center center. Of course, had the heat issue against run below in the French open to make it even easier for Zerab. But he was very good in the French open in Wimbledon. Of course, he served out of his mind, center beat him in four. But the point is Zerab's having a great season and it's not his fault that he made the most of a pretty fortunate situation for him, which was center and Alcoraz being either compromised or on the shelf for months.

5:20And even in this tournament because Alcoraz of course was not at a hundred percent entering and Shelton beat him. And now Zerab's reward is taking on a guy who he's dominated so far in his career. We'll see how he looks on Sunday for Shelton. I mean, he's been very good so far in this event as well. Tiafo and the end of the day, the issue that I have with Tiafo is the same that I've had for the rest of his career. The first serve is just not good enough and then really came back to bite him again. He had three aces in the entire match. Tiafo's second serve though is really just not good. And that's why he has problems because he doesn't land enough for serves. So any time he ends up getting into a bit of a slump with first serve, I'd say percentages. The second serve is going to beat his Achilles heel and we saw that happen on Friday night. As for example, Tiafo only landed 57% for serve and the only one 38% second serve points. So Tiafo's first serve when he lands it is solid.

6:22He's got 78% for serve points, but he misses so many of them that the second serve really is just a rolling, basically like mid 80s, like 85 miles per hour in Shelton. Can just load up and rip beforehand, even run around the back in some spots and just take control of the point. And I felt like that was really what happened over the courts of the final three sets. For comparison, Shelton won 77% for serve points, which is neck and neck with Tiafo, but he won 54% second serve points. So he had a 16 point edge in that stat. He had 20 aces, so he had 17 more free points than Tiafo just based on the aces. And Tiafo faced 11 break points, but the second serve is a problem for Tiafo. The first serve percentage is a problem, which is correlated to the second serve issues. And Tiafo at the end of the day, I thought would end up losing a two Shelton. One is because of that same issue, the second serve and second of all, I just think Shelton is better. At this point, and we saw Shelton beat Alcaras.

7:23Whether Alcaras was healthy or not, the point is Shelton actually did what a lot of people thought, including myself, was the impossible. Tiafo has tried that before. He's gone to five sets against Alcaras before. But it feels like Shelton has a certain ceiling with his overall firepower and with his game that Tiafo really just doesn't have. I think Tiafo is a perfect example of a good and not great player. He's had a couple of good runs to the semis in the US open. We know he also made the final, it's an adi. I know of course Alcaras and Sinner were not available, but he ought to try to say. Tiafo this year has had a pretty good last couple of months, but for his overall career, he's always been a good, not great player. And I do think the serve limits his ceiling. And I'm not sure if he's going to fix the serve or not, because he's been around for a while, and he'd have an objectively solid past couple of months. He won in Hala, so he won a title, a 500 title on grass. We saw him make the final of 1000 event.

8:24Lost in three to fees made the semis in the US open. But watching him play his serve is just not good enough. And it's why I don't take him seriously into these big matches. And it came back to the bottom and him double-faulting on match point to lose to Shelton. I think was the perfect way for that match to end based on how I broke it down. And based on why we took Shelton to win and both players to win a set as the dog. So Tiafo, look, he's able to go to run, but that serve is just not good enough. It's going to be a serious problem against good opponents. And we saw that happen again. And he probably should have lost the Mikkelson the round prior. So a nice run for Tiafo. Shelton, though, into his first ever Grand Slam final. We'll see if he ends up beating Zarev on Sunday trying to the first American to win a Grand Slam title. American mail to an a Grand Slam title since 2003 and erotic. A reminder though we did have an American in the US open final a couple of years ago. Fritz did lose to center in straight sets.

9:25I think people forgot that actually happened. So we have seen American in a final recently, but nobody's won. So I'll see what happens. But either way, nice one for Shelton, nice win for Zarev. And we split the podcast, the lock and dog, but a bit of a heart breaker there for the lock for the recap though of the outrites. We do have one pending still for the event or a reminder that we did a pretty decent job on the outrites for the quarters. Mainly Tiafo and A to one. I will carry that actual I'd say segment, but we still was very up at 333 to win the event. So I know he got a price that was worse than what other people got because some people took it before center got rolled out. We waited just based on how the episode that they got recorded as center already dropped out. But 333 look, we knew he had an easy path going in. It was even easier because all the rain players basically lost in his immediate section. And Gashana of making a dream run into the semis was a great deal for Zarev. But we do have 333 indirectly on the Zarev money line already for the final again Shelton.

10:31We'll see what happens. The one match away from catching an outright, which would be nice at 333. Nothing else to really add. We can't recap the woman's final is that it happened yet. I will give a shout out though to Cineo Kova and Tausen who won again in doubles. They ended up beating an American pair in the final. So Cineo Kova and Tausen the best doubles paired by far on the women's side. Cineo Kova is an all time great doubles player like she's an absolute monster and they won again. So good for them. Nothing else to add though. Time to move on into the breakdown of the men's final taking place on Sunday. Before we get into the breakdown of that match or my other brought to you by a sponsor edge boost. These debit cards built on online gambling earned up to 0.5% cashback on eligible gaming spending. Zero dollar deposit fee plus instance 24.7 3.5 access to deposits that clear in minutes and a very good signup deal. So today at edge boost at edge boost.io. He's code to be on a sign up to claim your exclusive offer.

11:32100 dollar deposit match simply sign up deposit $100 on support. Know that that should be in sent you and will max the $100 edge boost.io. We're going to be in for a one time $100 deposit match. We're also brought to you by clutch parliaths. So clutch parliath is recovered with that of bad predictions and a reminder to check out the very simple and easy to use dashboard. One stop shop for research plus the opportunities and best part. Get them on free with the code. You've got it signed up clutch parliaths.com promo code SGP. And the NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our 32 NFL team previews. And of course your chance to win $8,000 NFL future with Welcome back everyone to the 10 scan podcast finished going through the recap the men's semis. Time to move on into the breakdown between Shelton and Zverev taking place on Sunday.

12:35Moving on into the actual odds here's variables between minus 130 and minus 150 the shop around Shelton's around like plus 120 give or take. A four of the over on the RC 42 and a half massive total. It makes sense though because both guys are very good at serving. For the spread as he's very between half a game and minus one and a half. So shop around. People's ever one you want for the set spread you have Zverev minus one that sets at plus 143 Shelton plus one that sets a minus 182 and the money line. I said before is not too expensive. So if you want to go for Zverev or Shelton to win. I feel like that's definitely a pretty decent approach compared to the set spread unless you're picking one way traffic. Now for the actual three nothings if you want to go for one way traffic you can get Zverev in straight sets. At around a plus 370 you can get I actually saw a couple bigger prices like 4 to 1 and also you can get Shelton to win in straight sets at about 5 to 1 to keep that in mind.

13:39Now over 3 and a half sets by the way is that minus 245 the under 3 and a half sets is at plus 195. Ty break in the matches minus 480 to tie breaks is at plus 112 a team total for Zverev's around 21 and a half different take and Shelton's also around 21 and a half or 20 and a half. So for the head Ted it has been very very lopsided. Zverev's own them so far into their careers they have played five times Zverev is five and all against them. In fact the only set that Shelton ever won was the first ever set since it's an addy two years ago you won the first set then Zverev came back and won in the three but Zverev has one five straight sets against Shelton. Now I will point out that no meeting between them has been a grand slam meeting so maybe 3 to 5 is what Shelton needs compared to 3 out of 5. However they did play a couple of times last year in fact they played four times last year and it was eight nothing as there are in terms of sets so no meetings this year but Zverev has had his number and you question if Shelton is going to be able to withstand the overall consistency that Zverev has in the rallies man on the back inside.

14:54They played in the last meeting in the e2b finals and we saw Zverev winning straight sets and at no point that Shelton even generate a single break point into the entire match. Now Zverev I know in the middle of that Koshanov match had not been broken in the 37 straight service games then he double-faulted immediately on break point to give up the break did not get broken after that. So Zverev might be in a spot where he has been broken basically one time in the last like 45 or 50 service games so he is very very tough to break. He bounces the ball at least 80 times per serve but you know what it works for him and the fact is his first serves filthy his second serves also pretty good and Shelton's second serve will definitely be the deciding factor of this match. In that last meeting the had need to be finals last year Shelton won I believe it was 24% of the second serve points and that's why you saw Zverev break him in the first set.

15:55But the point is I do think you're looking at a spot where Zverev in general has been really good in Shelton in the head to head and it makes sense conceptually because even though Shelton has a lot of firepower the shots selects could be questionable. The unforced air count can be high the back can't be quite streaky as well. There are some consistency issues with Shelton's game and Zverev has been a wall for the entire event. Now for the path so far a reading off the actual opponents now both guys have had interesting roads mainly because Shelton's road has been hard in terms of competition where Zverev has been extremely easy from start to finish. For Zverev ended up beating son of go in five beat Halus in five beat to be low in straight sets. Meet our deri and straight sets beat his angel in straight sets and be ca shana of in straight sets which isn't same like he's only faced two ranked players into the entire tournament and our deri and to be low we know are both clay guys first an absolute joke of a path for Zverev but once again not as problem and he has one in straight sets.

17:01In each of the last five matches each last four matches into the event so well it's been a very easy road of four Zverev. Now for Shelton I use had a very tough road always based on upside from players. I mean he faced Greeks born round one. He's had a really bad year but they're still upside on hard court and he won that one in four beat her catching four. Same story a bad year did win in Cancun though a recently in Challenger tour to his implying but better but still beat her catching a competitive four sets. Be choppin for who's been underwhelming all year as well. The city post in straight sets who's also been up and down. You want to title this year on clay up at the point is city pos have been pretty bad for most of the season beat Alcoraz in five. You'd argue that he was injured but still a win as a win and be Tiafo in four but still like there's upside he's been multiple HB champions in basically every single round of the event and Zverev had a bunch of buys as far as I'm concerned. So yes, there should be the more rested guy in theory but Shelton still you know going to be fine if he can overcome the marathon against Alcoraz to be Tiafo in four.

18:09He should be okay not to mention the fact that he had a day off of course on Saturday so I think both guys will be fresh I think we'll be fine but Zverev should be in theory the fresh regard now there is one set I have to mention of for this match a particular which is how good Zverev is against lefties. Now Zverev based on stats I'm not even exaggerating like no hyperbole he might be the greatest tennis player of all time against lefties his numbers against lefties are actually video game like and they are almost impossible to match. So Zverev just for reference this status real like I counted it multiple times it's a real stat Zverev in his last 45 matches against lefties large sample basically three years of sample in his last 45 matches against lefties he is 44 and one. He's lost one time against lefties in his last 45 matches there is against Tia there are some rooms about food poisoning in that one as well so an American did beat him as the last lefty to do so but 44 and one is absolutely diabolical Zverev is an absolute machine against lefties he's one of the best players of all time against lefties and he's never lost the shell.

19:39He's one 10 straight sets so I think that's very is probably going to win as spoiler I just showed the lock on screen and I think all end up winning I think she'll the maybe wins a set or two but I don't see him out last things there have. And there was no play factor then again we saw Zverev play well in the French open final did drop a couple sets to go bully we saw him play well against center did unravel a bit but the first couple sets were tie break so it was like Zverev play badly centers just an absolute maniac and center put out of his mind as you want in four but Zverev play well in the last couple of grand slam finals and yes you can argue that nerves will play a factor the American crowd will definitely be in favor of Shelton and Shelton. Should be in a very solid spot mentally to you know snap the drought try to win the first ever men's grand slam title from an American in basically 23 years but I also think it could work in a certain way against them where he might be a bit over excited maybe a little bit nervous and maybe ends up just spring balls all over the court of for the first couple of sets before he settles in we'll see what happens but 44 and one in the last couple of sets.

20:52Last 45 matches against lefties I just can't pick Shelton I just can't do it is very much a blues and then you know I mean Shelton served that was mind it means that probably Zverev choked away at least one tie break and he's been really good in tie breaks. I want to say that Zverev is 29 and 14 I think in tie breaks he's either 29 and 14 or 30 and 14 but he's been incredible and tie breaks all tournament as well you want to two tie breaks against Kishanova he won a tie break against our dairy won a tie break against the low and you want a tie break as well against Hallis did lose one of house to but the point is he's been a good tie breaker player all tournament Shelton we saw did a lose a tie break against the tie break early on against Alcaraz which you probably should have won did win the finale in the super break or so at least there's that but Shelton has been good not great in tie breaks Zverev is one of the best tie break players on the entire tour so based on that I do think you'll be finding an opportunity in theory where Shelton can maybe steal a set be a tie break but I don't see it I think I think Zverev is a winning you can argue that three nothing might be a sleeper call but I'm not going to go for that I think that he ends up winning in four.

22:10I think Shelton with the crowd will do enough to actually win a set but I don't think he ends up winning three so based on my thoughts of the match I'm going Zverev the fact is 41 and 3 is 41 sorry 41 and sorry 44 and one is 44 and one I can't ignore that the fact is Zverev is an absolute maniac against lefties and the price is pretty cheap actually for a guy who he's owned in their careers I gotta go Zverev as my thoughts for this one so I'm gonna go with that I do think that it's going to be an entertaining match I do think that once again Shelton maybe can win a set but that's kind of my ceiling of for him here I'm gonna have the drought continuing I'm gonna go for Zverev in my opinion in four as my thoughts for this one for the total look I understand why people want the over because I think a breaker too is definitely likely but at the same point like if I'm picking four sets I think the under might have some value like 42 and a half well I bet that probably not I'd rather go for the game spread you can find

23:15Zverev out like minus 1 nav games a minus 1 and 4 I don't mind that there's a chance that that Shelton does not break in this entire match but there that's a possibility we saw him have no break points against as Zverev in the last meeting it needs to be finals last year now that courts faster than Arthur Ash but still like I think Zverev served is very very good and we know Shelton as a returner is not that great like we said Tiafo 178% was first serve points and Zverev lands his first serve and it's significantly higher clip than Tiafo if Zverev is gonna be flirting with around 72% first serve 70% I'm not sure Shelton's gonna break in the entire match so I got Zverev I'll go 31 I'll give Shelton one but I think the price should be a lot bigger on Zverev I thought he would be like minus 200 going in just based on how good he's been against lefties and how good he's been against Shelton but I think 130 to 150 is a very generous line I'll take the German I'll give these Zverev at minus 1 I'd say

24:2130 to 150 as my thoughts on this one you're happy up though for the breakdown the final between Shelton and Zverev to move on into the lock and dog picks before you get into the lock and dog picks remind of the brought to you by your sponsor on Rick fantasy so if you want to be millionaire this football season download on a dog and jump into the keep your million promo seven million dollars and head your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher lower keep whatever lands on the winning side but if you're zero you're out make the roll 20 rounds and you win whatever's left in bonus funds also great sign up deal so in select states new customers can now get a 5% deposit of 1k in bonus funds or a fantasy promo code SGPN we're also brought to by CalShi so they have spreads money loans total features much more on CalShi checking out for tennis as well great prices for football and college football to check that out also a reminder check out the great sign up deal to the trade 25 bucks gets 25 for free over on CalShi with the code if you've been it's signed up it's CalShi promo code SGPN welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finish going through the break

25:29down the men's final on sunday between Shelton and Zverev time to move on into the lock and dog for the show for the lock I'm going to go with Zverev to win I put it on screen already but I feel like it was pretty easy to deduce as the show was going on I just can't ignore the head and I can't ignore the numbers against lefties Zverev has had a week a week level of competition so far in the event but you know why these one four straight three nothings like I understand that each set's been or each match has had a competitive set or two Kishano have probably should have won at least one set but Zverev service still very tough to break the fact is he defends it very well he's very reliable on both wings and even if you find his playstyle boring you know what it's effective his court coverage is still very elite and Shelton we know can definitely spray balls in the doubles lane quite often so I can see Zverev really breaking down the forehand or backhand of Shelton as the match goes on not to mention the fact that Shelton's return game I think is really

26:34not that great and I think Zverev should be able to hold pretty regularly over the course of the match but for the actual numbers once again he's five in a lifetime again Shelton he's 110 straight sets I can't really ignore that 44 and one in his last 45 matches against lefties I can't ignore that either that's one of the most impressive stats I've ever seen in tennis a 44 and one is 44 and one I can't ignore that give me his very but a very cheap price I found 130 on bet rivers assign me up I like the price on that that'll be my lock for the show for the dog with those numbers I actually will double down on Zverev to win the match however I will throw in Zverev first set as well with the full match money line and that pays out at plus 125 in addition to the 44 and one set there's another crazy stat that I have to mention involving Zverev the man is an unbelievable first set player even in matches that he's lost as a whole Zverev has won the first

27:36set in the 30 of his last 31 matches he's won the first set in 30 of 31 the guys an absolute machine early in matches if he ends up choking it's usually the second set onward but he is an unbelievable first set player and I do want I do want to kind of question if Shelton will hit the ground running or if he's going to feel the nerves feel added pressure with the American drought on the line and maybe Shelton ends up struggling he also did just lose the first set to Tiafo so it's not like he has been that great in the first set of matches lately but Zverev is 30 and one in his last 31 first sets I can't ignore that and I already mentioned the fact that he's one 10 straight sets against Shelton the point is though I think that I think Zverev is going to win I think he's objectively better than Shelton by a pretty decent margin I think that Shelton's gotten better yes his serve can definitely break the 140s it was not 158 though that was a typo of from the

28:38actual Hawkeye but the point is we know that Shelton can force breakers can definitely serve bought his way out of trouble but I do think Zverev is proven over the course of their careers he's a much better player than Shelton and the head Ted suggested it as well but 31 and the last 31 first sets and I can throw that into the money line for the full match as well at plus 125 sign me up I love the price I will double down on Zverev but I'll throw in this little caveat to make a plus money that'll be my dog for the show so once again the lock and dog picks the locks and it be on Zverev money line and minus 130 for the dog I'm gonna go for Zverev to win the first set and the match at plus 125 double down there on these various money line grab it up though for the tournament back once again in about a week and a half we're going to China and we have Shenzu and Hengzhu however those events start on around the 23rd so we're gonna be off for about a week or so 10 days or so so if you're looking for tennis content apology is but I have

29:39nothing for you for the next week and a half back once again though for the preview and outrates of those two events in China till next time good or tall view and all of your bets bye