Voters decide whether Virginia enters redistricting fight

0:00This week on up first with President Threatening a Target Iran civilian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges, even as gas prices in the U.S. continue to climb, what are the chances of an end to the war in Iran? Listen for updates every morning on the latest overnight news on up first. Find us on the MPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamer Keith. I cover politics. And I'm actually Lopez. I also cover politics. And Chad Khalil from VPM News also joins us today. Welcome, Chad. Hey, thanks for having me. Absolutely. Today on the show, Virginia voters have two more weeks to decide whether their state joins the redistricting race, which could in turn decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives. Chad, explain what Virginians are voting on exactly. Right. So this is a ballot question. So it's a yes or no question. And a yes vote would amend

1:03Virginia's constitution in a way that allows the state legislature to draw congressional maps in this sort of off-cycle schedule, which is before the upcoming 2026 midterms. And a NOVA would not do that. And it would keep the current way of doing things, which is a bipartisan redistricting commission. How did this ballot measure end up on the ballot? So it was very fast to answer how. So usually Virginia amends its constitution over two years, but we kind of had an accelerated schedule to get maps ready in time for the midterms, if this is to be successful. So the last sort of action was during the legislative session earlier this year. And the legislature sent a bill to the governor who set this referendum date. Right. The state in 2025 in November gave Democrats a trifecta, which then gave Democrats the opportunity to seek this redistricting. Ashley, let's put this in the bigger context.

2:11This is not the first time on the podcast that we have talked about a mid-decade redistricting push. Nope. This has been going on since 2025. And you know, if this passes, what this means is that Democrats will have effectively beat back a big national effort, started by Republicans, notably President Trump last year. And this effort was to give the party heading into the midterms because Republicans were scared that things would look bad this year and that they would not fare well in the midterms. And I mean, I can run through all the states that have done this so far just to recap the started with Texas, Trump asked Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map to add about five more seats that are favorable to the party in response California. Democrats started their effort to do a sort of similar thing in Virginia, whereas to get a ballot measure in front of voters there to create five more favorable seats for Democrats, that past court seemed to be okay with both. So those are definitely going to be in front of voters during the midterms. And then, you know, you had North Carolina and Missouri,

3:12they also passed. They created a few more seats for Republicans. Ohio and Utah for different reasons. It was more like court orders and statutes. They had to redraw their maps. But those both ended up being a like nominal edge for Republicans. It wasn't a big redraw like you saw in Texas. And so if Virginia's get what could be like what is it four more seats in Virginia, that could pretty much mean this all ends in a wash. And this big effort, all the time and money, all the resources, all the political capital that has been used since last year to do this ends with no party having any meaningful edge heading into the midterms, which would be pretty ironic. So is Virginia the end of the road? We are now in the midterm election year. primaries are happening. What's left? Yeah. The calendar doesn't look good for any future prospect for the exception of Florida, which already has a special legislative session on the books that at the end of this month, pretty much around the same time. Virginia's ballot measure election wraps up legislators in Florida will be considering a redraw their map. That is also just like Virginia,

4:14I mean, I know we're going to talk about this. That is also not looking super for sure. There are Republicans there who don't want to make currently safe seats less safe in Florida because Democrats just flipped two legislative seats there last month. And one of them happens to be a stayhouse seat that covers Mar-a-Lago. And they're like, I don't know, maybe like making existing seats less safe in Florida is not a good idea because it looks like a lot of voters that we depended on last time around are not going to be there for us. So it is it is an open question whether Florida will get that done. But that seems to be the only state that sort of left pending right now. Chad, early voting began a few weeks ago now. You've been out talking to people. What are you hearing? I've been mostly talking to people at polling places that are voting early. And I you know, I was kind of surprised because this is a weird calendar and a weird election in a lot of ways because you know it's one it's hyperpartisan but it's also not on paper partisan. You're not voting for a Democrat or a Republican but parties want a certain outcome. But even though it's

5:20sort of in this odd calendar and the question is unusual, there's still a lot of voters that are coming out. So this off off your election is getting similar amounts of early vote that we had in the 2025 general election. So if you look at a number that's two weeks out from that November election date and then you know today were two weeks out from the April election date, they're kind of comparable numbers. Yeah and you can't really draw any meaningful you know information from this in terms of how this is splitting partisan wise because Virginia you don't register with a party. So the only information that you can draw is like how did these voters vote in the past primaries like which ticket did they get. And so far it's looking like a mix which is pretty surprising because so far in special elections it's been Democrats who have been really dominating not to say that is not going to be the outcome of this. It is just looking less and less like clear what the picture is like how this is all going to shake out right now. Yeah I mean Ashley you covered the California ballot measure and it was pretty clear how that story was going to end. I think we have

6:21some actual suspense here in Virginia. Yeah I mean California look very different states this is a blue-ish state very recently became a Democratic trifecta you know this is a state that has a lot of independent voters and yes Republicans too a lot of Republicans so it is not like California where there were it's a majority Democratic state where they were mad at Texas that also was a very like motivating force when I was talking to voters there they were very upset the beef between California and Texas these two big states. I lived in Texas for a long time I could tell you for some reason this beef was always like sort of in the air and then the electoral prospect of you know Texans getting more seats for Republicans anyways. It was a very different situation and you know Virginia's election is happening at a time where Democrats are looking like the situation isn't as bad as it was potentially looking last year because Republicans were chatting about creating a deeper edge for themselves heading into the midterms and now it's not looking like that's panning out and so I just wonder besides the fact that the electorate looks different the

7:23politics looks different yeah this one's a harder one to call. So Chad what are what are the voters you're talking to you saying? I mean there's a mix that you hear a lot of them kind of repeating some of the talking points that that adds have been giving them so you have people that are against the vote saying you know two rights don't make a wrong Jerry Mandering's bad but you also have people on the other side of that saying Jerry Mandering is bad but you know this is something that we kind of have to do because of the actions that Republican Legislatures and around the country have done so I was in Hanover County which is just north of Richmond and I talked to Doug and Randy Berlin they were voting yes but they didn't sound that stoked about it. We're not really crazy about the Jerry Mandering process but you know people say well if fight fire with fire you know is that good or is that bad I mean it's probably not really good but in defense of liberty you know we feel that it's something that we we need to come out and vote for.

8:24As the way things are going out of their states I feel like this might be the only way to level the playing field for all states. These people are voting for it and they don't sound that excited about it. What are the people who are voting against it saying? I picked up on some anger frustration one gentleman that I talked to said like we shouldn't even be here like this is a ridiculous that we're out here voting on this I spoke to another person who was talking about how everything the Democrats are saying that the Republicans are doing they're actually doing so the Democrats are saying that the Republicans are Jerry Mandering but actually by this vote they're trying to Jerry Mandered Virginia. I gotta say those yes voters sounded exactly like California Democrats to me that is exactly the feedback I got. No one was clicking their heels so excited to vote for a partisan Jerry Mandered. Remember these states passed independent redistricting reforms that was what voters wanted and having to vote against it you know some people probably having to vote for and then against it in this case is an awkward position voters at writ large do not like partisan Jerry Mandering but there's being sort of forced in this position for a myriad of reasons

9:29mostly the Supreme Court allowing states to do this and saying that it's you know it's okay and you know politicians like Donald Trump saying like hey if I can I will. When voters as recently as 2020 we're voting on getting rid of the legislature doing redistricting and going to a bipartisan commission I think it was like 66% of the vote so there's a recent landside victory for that movement. All right well we're gonna take a quick break and we will have more in a moment. This week on up first with President Threatening to target Iran civilian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges even as gas prices in the US continue to climb one of the chances of an end to the war in Iran. Listen for updates every morning on the latest overnight news on up first find us on the MPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back and I'm a Virginia resident people have been knocking on my door. I have a whole stack of mail here that includes yes and no and various arguments and even what appears to be a

10:33fake local newspaper arguing for the ballot measure. Chad you have done some reporting on the tactics both by the pro and anti-redistricting campaigns. Can you tell us what you've seen? Yeah so the no campaign so as a reminder this is the anti-redistricting campaign. They have put out a lot of mailers which probably are some of the ones that you got in your hand there but a lot of people are saying that they're confusing. Yeah I'm looking at the headlines on bipartisan leaders agree rigging districts is wrong. If you had to guess who that was and it's got blue and red and then another one says vote yes to level the playing field in the midterms. One of those is a yes and one of those is a no and it's all pretty muddy. I mean one of the ones that was the most sort of like took me aback the most part is this political action committee that's associated with the the no campaign has sent out flyers that include images of the KKK and you know police chasing like little black girls during the civil

11:35civil rights movement and it says just like Jim Crow they want to silence your voice whereas you have a lot of the black democratic establishment here in Virginia most of the leadership in the legislature is black are pushing for a yes vote. I mean Jerry Mandering is confusing to most voters. I don't think any like most voters that you talk to understand how this works. This is where political messaging is ripe for creating even more confusion and especially because so much money is being spent in this. I mean especially compared to like we were talking about California in California there was not this like you know barrage of of ads that voters had to sift through because I mean a lot of it is pulling was looking like there's no need to fight here. This is going to be an easy one for Democrats. Obviously that's not the case in Virginia. The other side is looking like hey this is a place where we could persuade voters but it's a complicated issue. It's like a very technical process and you know how you message this is like it's kind of difficult. I mean you're

12:37explaining a ballot measure to override a technical thing that voters had to weigh in on several years ago. So I'm not surprised that a bunch of money being spent is creating a lot more confusion. You even have the part of this where people voters don't necessarily know if they're going to be redistricted or not because you can see the PDF of the map but you can't zoom into like the basically the census block sort of level like you know the reporters or you know political wanks would do. So that's another level of confusion or murkiness, opaqueness, whatever you want to call it that's in the process too. I mean funny side note my very local paper where I live one week had a story that said our congressman would still represent us with the new maps and then the next week they ran a correction and said actually we don't think our congressman would still represent us. I do want to talk some more about the ads because it's also just people are being bombarded with television ads and they are in fact quoting the same people. The side supporting the measure

13:43has ads with none other than former president Barack Obama and the opposition also has ads quoting things that Obama said in the past. You know this really does represent a reversal of how Democrats have talked about gerrymandering in the past. I guess this is just where we are. Yeah I think it's also just confusion is a really useful tactic for political campaigns depending on how you want to do that. And I think given that this election is in April there's not a deer or our next to the name. You have the complicated pieces of you know where am I going to get redistricted? Am I going to get redistricted in the first place? You know it makes this election really ripe for that sort of confusion. I mean Democrats are also kind of in a bind here right? Like of course the more progressive elements of the party have been complaining about redistricting for decades now you know being a scourge on our democracy but at the same time the base of the

14:45party is saying we need you guys to fight back. We feel like you're not doing enough. And this was a very blatant partisan power grab started by President Trump. And I don't know how the base would feel if Democrats did nothing responded with literally nothing. And all these Republican states, Jerry Manderd and and got I don't know like upwards of 10 seats to favor Republicans how the base would feel then. It's a tough one but you know also let me remind you Republicans are pushing currently right now within the same year sometimes within the same sentence. They're saying it is okay for some states to Jerry Manderd but we don't like it when the Democrats are doing it. So everyone is in a tough position here they're having to within a same conversation pick both sides or within the or within a decade taking two different positions on the same issue. A lot of Democrats here are really you know they also just want something to put the brakes on Trump. And if there's a Democrat controlled house that does that you know I think there's a lot of frustration in terms of the way that Democrats in the minority and in the Senate

15:47haven't even been able to to kind of put checks on the president. Actually you mentioned earlier that this whole mid decade redistricting battle could wrap up this month with Virginia's vote and then that special session in Florida. But does this end here or are we now talking about just never ending redistricting battles you know the census will come out and then maybe the mid decade and like does it ever stop? Well it's hard to tell but this did open the door for this to become a new reality like a new thing that Americans have to deal with every couple of years whenever there's a tough midterm coming up for the party in power. You know there also is a situation where states might redistrict earlier than we think again because the Supreme Court has the Voting Rights Act before that there could be a ruling on that outcome which could prompt a bunch of states particularly in the South to redraw their districts. The Supreme Court like I

16:50mentioned has said this is okay they said you can redistrict for partisan gain and as of this moment states cannot gerrymandor along racial lines meaning they can't take race into account when they redraw their maps that could be pretty much over depending how the Supreme Court rules on this case before them right now but yeah it's an open question if it depends how this all shakes out if Republicans get a little bit like if there is evidence that this helped them not lose as many seats as they were expecting and by the way Republicans are expecting to lose seats that's why so many of them are retiring who knows they might draw the conclusion that this is worth it for us in the long run and who knows Democrats might feel the same way they might say like look this worked for Republicans in the past and as I mentioned there is not much to stop parties from doing this in the future except for the idea of real representation for voters who want to maybe want to know who their member of Congress is and maybe have a relationship with that person or people in their office if

17:50there's constant change and districts are drawn to favor the parties whichever party then voters get less of a voice yeah and you know I had I've mentioned this before on the podcast but the one of the results of this is there there are fewer competitive seats heading into this midterm which means Congress is likely to be less representative of of the country for the next couple of years well on that note um let's leave it there for today Chad Khalil from VPM news thank you for your reporting thank you and before we go the situation in Iran is changing quickly and we are keeping an eye on it so hit the follow button wherever you get your podcasts and you won't miss a thing I'm Tamar Keithite cover politics I'm Ashulopez I also cover politics and thank you for listening to the NPR politics podcast

18:54this week on up first with president threatening to target Iran civilian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges even as gas prices in the US continue to climb what are the chances of an end of the war in Iran listen for updates every morning on the latest overnight news on up first find us on the mpr app or wherever you get your podcasts