What is the GOP convention happening this week?

0:00This message comes from the Center for U.S. Voters Abroad Foundation. All U.S. citizens abroad may request an absentee ballot to vote in the 2026 election. Visit registerabroad.com to get started. Every presidential election year, political parties hold conventions. You know the deal. Supporters, party bigwigs, they all meet to pick their candidate and really talk about their platform for the upcoming campaign. This year, though, Republicans are holding what they're calling a midterm convention. Will it work? It's the MPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Tamer Keith. I cover politics. And I'm Mara Lioson. Senior National Political Correspondent. Tam, let's just start with this convention. What is it? Where is it? And most importantly, why is it? So it is in Dallas, Texas and it will be on Wednesday and Thursday nights. And the thing that you described that happens every four years, that is not this.

1:01There is no official party business. This is really just a television program, an infomercial, a Trump rally over two nights. There are a number of speakers that have been announced. President Trump is the headliner, both nights. One interesting side note is that the NFL season also starts Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some competition for eyeballs and it's not clear how much coverage this infomercial is going to get. But then it can be sliced and diced and put out over the internet. And in this clicks economy, that is worth a lot. It seems like President Trump is going to be front and center on this thing. But can you tell that broadly about the messaging outside of Trump in terms of the things that we think Republicans are going to focus on in this convention? Well, you can't get outside of Trump. He is the center of the Republican political universe. So what they are going to be talking about is President Trump's

2:07accomplishments. That's the way they talk about it. The focus in terms of issues is lowering costs and raising incomes. It's securing the border and protecting American values. So these are broad topics that we're expecting them to address. There will be members of Congress speaking. There will be the president, the vice president, and lots of those like regular people affected by the president's policies, who you see at every sort of convention. That will be there too. I think one thing that is notable is that not all vulnerable Republicans will be there. There are something like 45 competitive races between the House and the Senate. Fewer than half of the people running in those competitive races will be speaking at this convention up on stage. I mean, Mara, what do you make a political strategy here? Doing an entire midterm convention, Senator on a president who is historically unpopular at a time, would that kind of complicate the lives of many Republicans running

3:11in many of these races? Well, there are two different strategies here and they're completely uncompatible. One is President Trump's strategy. He believes that Republicans do better when he is either on the ballot or front and center. He has told voters, I want you to pretend please that I'm on the ballot, just come out and vote and show up for it. But lots of Republican operatives and members of Congress who are running for reelection do not subscribe to that strategy. They think that an unpopular president, President Trump has approval rating somewhere in the high 30s to low 40s is a drag on Republicans and they'd be better to run their own races and not be seen with him in Dallas at this convention or anywhere else. And that's the real problem here. I mean, Donald Trump has a firm iron grip on his party. Nobody would dare tell him what he's trying to do is unproductive or unhelpful for Republicans. But he firmly believes this. You know, he believes if everything is about him, his party will do better. And polls do show that Democratic voters are far

4:14more energized about these midterms than Republicans. So there is an energy problem. Trump believes and some of his advisors that if they can generate excitement with this convention and other things to make voters, you know, the term is low propensity voters. And Trump's base has a lot of these people, people who voted for him in 2016, voted for him in 2020, voted for him in 2024, but didn't vote in any of those midterms. There are a lot of voters, in fact, on both sides of the aisle, who are much more motivated to vote in a presidential year. But but also we know that this time at this moment, Democratic voters are much more motivated than Republican voters, which means they are more likely to actually vote in these midterms. One way to look at these midterms is that there are two opposing forces. One set of forces are

5:16organic. The motivation of voters, the intensity that clearly is on the Democratic side turn out. We see Democrats turning out with higher numbers in special elections and primaries. The polls are favoring Democrats. The incumbent president is unpopular. He's not taking a back seat as unpopular presidents have done in the past. His issues are unpopular. tariffs are on data centers. Then there are all these other forces that I would call structural forces that are helping Republicans money. They have vastly more money than Democrats. Individual Democratic candidates might have at raised their Republican opponents. But overall, Republican super PACs, campaign committees have much more money and the Supreme Court just made it easier for them to buy advertising. The other structural advantage is Jerry Mandering. That clearly goes for the Republicans and the possible diminishment in the use of mail-in voting. That has the potential to really help Republicans. So this midtermer is going to tell us which of these forces is stronger.

6:16I mean, with this convention, though, Tam, I want to go back to this idea that you mentioned of the kind of roughly half or less than half of the candidates running these competitive races showing up at this Republican midterm convention. A lot of things in President Trump's eyes are a sort of fieldy test. I feel like we see them all the time. I feel like every primary we talk about this, all the different ways that he's sort of testing people's loyalty. Is there any risk for these Republican candidates who decide not to come to the Trump pollusa of President Trump and his team kind of turning against them or at least giving them less resources? Or I don't know. There's just a lot of different ways that having the incumbent president, even if he is unpopular, being against you as a Republican candidate also doesn't seem great. Yeah, and I don't think I fully have the answer to this question. Some candidates simply really do have scheduling conflicts. Some candidates really, truly have deleted references to Donald Trump from their campaign websites. So I think that midterms in theory are 435 different house races with

7:18different dynamics in every race and the candidate should be able to run their own race. President Trump is trying to nationalize it. And to some extent Democrats wouldn't mind Trump nationalizing it and making it all about him too because he's unpopular. Vice President JD Vance was asked about this at the White House press briefing last week that he conducted. And he said, you know, it's not a big deal. The president and the vice president can go on TV on this convention and make this case and you know, some front line congressman somewhere, you know, like they don't need to do that speech at the convention. They may be better served by staying home. Now that's JD Vance. JD Vance is not Donald Trump. Donald Trump like an elephant never forgets. But you know, it's unclear how much he is being told about who's not going to be there. And you know, like there are a lot of needs all over the country for the campaign war chest that the president has

8:19under his influence, let's say. Can I just bring one example about how Trump's desire for revenge does have its limits? Yes. It kind of goes against the narrative. He did endorse Susan Collins incumbent Republican Senator from Maine. The only Republican Senate incumbent running this year in a state that went for Harris. She voted to convict Donald Trump after January 6th. This was the second impeachment he'd been impeached in the House and the Senate's job was to convict or not. And she voted to convict and he still endorsed her. So even Donald Trump might not go after every Republican who decided to be a no-show for the convention. I see. So you're basically saying he might pick his spots a little bit more this midterm seat. He likes winning. He does like winning. He hates losing. And you know, in Maine, for instance, he doesn't have an alternative. Right. And I mean, the money speaks a lot of the words to here, though, in terms of these, there's this super PAC, MAGA Inc., which has this giant war chest that you mentioned, Tam. And there's been a lot of reporting about the anxiety among

9:24some Republican candidates over the fact that a lot of this money, millions of millions of dollars are just sitting there and have not been spent and have not been allocated across the country at this point. Mara, do we have any sense on when this money is going to be spent, how this money is going to be spent or whether it's going to be spent this midterm year? Well, we know that some of it is being spent already. He's already put $10 million into the Texas Senate race, which is kind of an extraordinary thing that Republicans have to put any money into a Texas Senate race, but he's doing this on behalf of his hand-picked nominee, Ken Paxton, who has raised much less money than James Talarico, his Democratic opponent. The president is sitting on more than $400 million in his super PAC. He has said he's going to spend it, but so far, we've only seen him spend it in Texas. However, he has plenty of time and plenty of money. This is probably the most significant way that he can help Republicans. All right. Let's say a quick break and let's talk about how Democrats are pointing a message as the midterms get closer right after this.

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11:54And we're back. So, Tame, I want to talk about Democrats and their strategy this midterm year now. Labor Day traditionally seen as the time when campaign season really ramps up. How would you describe how Democrats are thinking about messaging their platform this year? So, talking to Democratic campaign officials, it is very clear that their message is the economy and the cost of living. Things are too expensive. One strategist I talked to said the number one, two and three issue for voters is affordability and that is what Democratic candidates are going to focus on. You know, there may be a side mention of AI data centers, which are unpopular or a side mention of corruption and people in politics getting ahead while regular people can't afford to buy a house or feel like the American dream is out of reach. But it really all comes back to the economy, which is a big shift from 2024. When the message coming from the top of the

13:00ticket on down included a big focus on democracy related issues and Donald Trump is a threat to democracy and included a large focus on abortion rights and abortion access. That's not really the headline of the Democratic pitch right now. It's an affordability campaign. I feel like, Mara, we've talked about this a lot this year too. Even when Democrats do touch on these other issues, I feel like with data centers with corruption, they still seem to be trying to find a way to connect it back to that main theme, right? Yes, and they have to and they are because there's so much corruption they would say because Donald Trump is making sweetheart deals for his friends and his family. That's why your prices are going up. The Iran war is unpopular. Why? Because it's causing you to pay more at the pump. He wants data centers. He says without data centers, you'll be backward and poor. But people don't see that. They see data centers making their energy prices go up. So I think that Democrats have stumbled upon a message that works and they're trying to weave it into everything that they're running against. I mean, we've established

14:03that the political headwinds are kind of moving in their direction for no other reason. Then just the fact that it's hard to run in a midterm year when you are the party in power, right? But what do you think Democrats are worried about at this point? Lots and lots and lots of things. But I think that specifically they have a kind of mirror image problem that the Republicans have in Texas. And that's in the state of Michigan where the Democratic Senate nominee Abdul Al-Sahyd is even at this late date still struggling to unify his party. And Democrats are very worried about that race. Michigan is a battleground state, but it's mostly blue and it should be an easy state for it to pick. Democrats have to keep Michigan. They have to keep New Hampshire. They have to keep Georgia. And then in order to get control of the Senate, they have to pick up four in a universe of only six, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. So they have a real uphill climb in the Senate. I would say that they are much more confident, cautiously confident about the House.

15:08You can almost imagine the sort of like hand-ring stories, Tam, that if they were, if Democrats were able to win Alaska and North Carolina and Ohio, but then lost Michigan and end up not having control of the Senate and a 50-50 Senate with JD Vans of the tiebreaker, like it would be, I don't know, it would kind of like blow up the entire media ecosystem. Well, yes. And I think if that were to happen, then all of the progressive momentum at trying to convince everyday Democratic voters that, yes, progressive ideas can win, that would be dramatically eroded. But that's a big if. We don't know how these races are going to turn out. I'll say that in New Hampshire, the primary is actually happening today. And on the Democratic side, there is another one of these more establishment versus more progressive DSA style candidates. But it's such a late primary that Democrats really are nervous. The likely Republican nominee is a well-known name in the state of New Hampshire. And so every time a party is spending money to

16:14protect a seat that is currently in their hands. So Michigan and New Hampshire both have retiring Democratic senators is money that's not being spent on these reach states into more red areas. And this is also the case for Republicans, though. If they are struggling in Texas, they aren't able to spend as much money in, you know, say Michigan or in Georgia. That's right. And you know, there are some things that make Democrats feel a little more optimistic. We've got a series of polls that now show that the share of Americans who say identify, this is party ID, identify as Democrats has actually grown. Democrats really have been in the tank. Their brand has been terrible for quite a number of years. But the latest data from Gallup shows Democrats with a 10 percentage point advantage over Republicans when people are asked what party they identify with, including independence. And this is not just a trend that they're finally going in the right direction.

17:15These are absolute numbers. Now, it's also true that in a midterm election, the outparty generally is seen more positively. But it's something that Democrats can feel good about. Yeah, I was talking to a Democratic pollster and political consultant John Anceloni who said when Republicans lose, Democrats win. So if Republicans are unpopular, then even if Democrats are also unpopular, it is still better for Democrats. So he is pretty optimistic in this moment. What else are you guys going to be watching before we go just in the next couple of months? Well, I'm going to be watching this convention. And not getting very much. And not watching the NFL. Well, I mean, like, you know, there's a multi screen experience. I don't know how good the Wi-Fi will be in the convention hall. But you know, we'll see. Yeah, you know, I am definitely watching for whether Democrats really are able to stretch into redder states. This is an existential question for Democrats going forward. So I guess that's what I'm watching for. Yeah, Democrats have to be able to compete in red states. Just because of the

18:16way that the American political system is set up, states that have a lot of acreage and fewer people are advantaged. And those are the red states. And they have to learn how to do better there. And I think that they are learning in places like North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska. Those are places that Democrats feel could offer a template for the future. All right, we can leave it there for today. And before we go, just a quick plug for a virtual event that we're doing for our MPR plus supporters next week. It's on the midterms and the races that could decide the control of Congress. We're also going to be doing a live question and answer during the event. And it's going to give you a chance to ask whatever questions your heart desires to me, Tamra Keith and Mara Lyson. Whatever questions you want, whatever questions have popped into your mind during this podcast. All three of us will be there. It's next Thursday at 2 p.m. Eastern 11 a.m. Pacific over Zoom. And for our plus supporters, check out our bonus episode from August 30 for details on how to register. If you haven't joined plus yet, what are you waiting for?

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