These NFL FA Moves Are Creating the Most Fantasy Value - Stealing Bananas

0:00Has the news been getting you down? I'm Megan McCartle, and I'm here to help. I'm the host of a news show from Washington Post Opinion, called Reasonably Optimistic. And it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now. Every Wednesday, I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward. It does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are. No, I am a believer in America, and that's worth fighting for. Join me Wednesdays on YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Music Breaking down all the biggest news from the NFL's tampering period. That's what we're talking about today. I'm stealing bananas. I'm going to find the ceiling. You can find the ceiling. It's newsletterbengrette.substac.com. With me, as always, it's Sean Siegel. You can find off his great work over at Rotovist. We've had the two day tampering period, which is really just like the announcing of contract.

1:01It's supposed to be when teams can negotiate before a free agency is official, but they've obviously already negotiated before this. Now we just hear the deals as soon as the tampering period opens. So we've just moved the tampering period up. There's always tampering. There's always discussions taking place before. There's supposed to be discussions taking place. Lots of deals. Obviously, because deadline is per action, we also get trades. We get the Max Crosby saga. All of these things. So many things happening in the NFL in this couple day period, even before free agency officially opens, and all of this stuff does get finalized. It's a very fun time to be analyzing the way that the league feels about various players. What we think about how these players are going to fit into different offenses and how they'll be utilized and what that means for fantasy football going forward. A lot of new information on a variety of different topics from costs to different stuff. We like to talk about the macro sort of real NFL takes

2:03as well. Are these guys worth the money? Are they this? Are they that as opposed to just the pure fantasy response? At the same time, I was looking at an article I wrote, Sean. Actually, it was on this date last year. We're recording this on March 11th. I was just looking out at this morning, and I noticed that it was written on March 11th, 2025. And in that post, I had some sharp takeaways, like the work the Bears did in the trenches on both sides of the ball was going to be really positive for them. They had a great 2025. Some skepticism about nausea, Harris's contract with the chargers and DK Metcalf's fit in an Arthur Smith offense with the Steelers, which Metcalf had a better year than I would have guessed, but still was not worth what people wanted him to be worth in fantasy. But I had a whole section called Seattle's moves that were hard to follow and talked about being really skeptical of what Seattle did. We've talked about it on the show. I talked through that throughout the off season last year as we move forward. Remember, later in the off season kind of understanding that if Seattle was going to be good,

3:03it was really going to have to be through the defense was the point that I kind of came to by August. And clearly, they did that. Clearly, these takeaways from free agency last year on Seattle were very, very wrong. I was very skeptical of saying, I don't know that the time. Yeah, I don't know. That's just, that's one that I've, I've worn a few times, but I've also been reminded of being wrong on the Seahawks as recently as like the last couple of months because there's people that are really mad that, you know, had a take wrong last year. So I'll just go ahead and mention that one. As a precursor to say that these early free agency reactions, tampering period reactions are not always going to be right. You know, we don't have all the information yet. We don't have the draft yet. We don't know a lot of different things. Sometimes teams do stuff in free agency. And then they kind of step on it later. I mean, Kurt Cousins a couple of years ago and then they go and draft Michael Penix in the draft. And you're like, well, everything I thought that the Kurt Cousins contract meant, I think differently about now.

4:03I think they have a very different view of the quarterback position than I thought that they had. So I'll, and I just mentioned Naji Harris. They went and paid him. What I wrote about last year was a smaller deal than I expected. It was only like five million guaranteed for a guy who had played all 17 games all four years of his rookie contract and ran for over a thousand yards all four years and wasn't one of only like five backs since 2000 who had opened a career doing that. And the other ones were all good running backs. Like this is a former first round pick that the league was like, yeah, we all know he's a former first round pick. But the dealers were the only one dumb enough to use him as much as they did. Obviously, he's had some other stuff go on with the fireworks instead of everything. But they signed into a pretty small deal. People got really excited about him or some people did. They stepped on that with the Maureen Hampton pick a few months later. So, and then there's trades. There's all sorts of things that will still happen throughout the summer and down the line. This is just a very start of team building. And yet, obviously, there's so much that's happened that we want to talk about. So we're going to, we're going to talk about it.

5:05Yeah, and I'm. The fact that we don't know the future is what makes all of this exciting. Right. And all of it. So much fun to chat about. And as you sort of hinted at there and talked about in some ways. Some of the ways you can be right and some of the ways you can be wrong are almost unrelated to these free agent discussions in that. You mentioned how the Falcons make the selection then in the draft of PENIX could be changes things with the Seahawks. You know, and for anyone who wasn't paying attention, they did win the Super Bowl improved and wrong. It was the emergence of Jackson Smith and Jigba that made everything else work. And so there were some things that they did right, obviously. And the main thing being that they have a true genius as a head coach. And I think that that's important to look at both from a tactical perspective and a leadership perspective that we don't have maybe that many instances

6:06of coaches who really feel both of those signature head coaching types of roles so well, where you're the best person with the exes and os. And you're someone who not everyone is going to be Mike Tomlin, not everyone is going to be Bill Parcells. There are different ways to put together a team where your guys are out there competing for you with everything they've got every week. Certainly, MacDonald seems like he's that kind of guy, even though he has a different personality than some of the folks. Andy Reed, I think, is another great example of him. We gave him a hard time, obviously, and our coaches draft, because that was forward looking. Andy Reed, not necessarily, again, a Mike Tomlin type, but a players coach who makes that work. Many players coaches don't make it work at all, right? The players enjoy it, but the team is terrible. But if you can be an effective players coach while you're also the person who's going to be the best player in the team. And, again, that's the question about Andy Reed now, right?

7:07Is he still out on the horizon of what everyone wants to do? And maybe some of the things were inadvertent, right? He was always criticized for throwing too much. When, in fact, that was the cheat code in so many ways that allowed his Philadelphia Eagles teams to be so good, even with Don McNab as the QB. Well, you have that with the COX, but you also have this Jackson Smith and Jigba eruption. You can see someone who is on the team there, certainly with some of these guys who are going into year five and occasionally into year six, we do see, and this is one of the things that Blair and I have talked about on the site at length. You do see situations where the breakout comes after free agency because of the team change. And so I don't think that we can ignore that with players. At the same time, but all the things you and I were talking about before the show started, is that when we have a lot of information about Alec Pierce, about Wendell Robinson, about Romeo Dobbs, and it would certainly be a surprise if they can make the same type of move that a JSN is a non free agent did to elevate their teams.

8:13Basically, we're dealing with full teams at the NFL level. So many players, the interaction of these players, a ton of uncertainty, but certainly for agency does matter and the tactics matter. I think you could argue that both of the QB decisions for the Falcons were wrong. Certainly to put them together was wrong. One of the things that is so much fun about free agency or interesting, again, from a tactical perspective, is that it comes first. And that creates an interesting situation at running back. Where you can imagine a world in which the chiefs approach running back differently if the draft comes first. But when you have essentially said, okay, we went after Breeze Hall. We didn't pay enough. We didn't get him. And we continue to see that that matters. That the Seahawks were basically able to win a Super Bowl in which everything was shut down, except for that. And the chiefs have a pretty good defense.

9:14Right. How could we do this? So you have the sort of piece. If you're essentially looking at a market that has two different making players, one in free agency and one in the draft, you have no room to miss. You've got to go ahead and get the one that happens first because there are no guarantees for the other part of it. So that is interesting. But I think that some of these teams who are making these big wide receiver splashes, there certainly is the tactical question then of, should you have actually tried to go out and address wide receiver in free agency for number two's and number three's that you're having to pay like, you know, mid-level or low-end number ones, even in a weak-ish draft, we still have, you know, five or six receivers projected to go in the top 40 picks. You're not guaranteed to get your guy. But there is a lot more upside to being right in the draft

10:14than there probably is with these free agent moves. Yeah, that was a big talking point I saw on social as well. I do think that's a pretty well-known feeling right now around the league is that in free agency, you're unlikely to get a huge win at the what you're probably going to overpay a little bit at the wide receiver position. I thought that Pierce contract was wild. I was posting about it a little bit on social. There seems to be a hope that he does some things differently. Just to like, ground my Alec Pierce position with some data, his collegiate profile was not particularly strong in terms of like the per route stuff that I like to look at. He didn't run a ton of routes either. But until his fourth season, he didn't have posted targets per route higher than 19%. Then in his final year, he gets up to like 22%. His efficiency fell a little bit that year as yards per route

11:14in those final two years are both above two, which is good, but they're not like meaningfully, they're not like massive numbers for a high eight out player at the college level. And particularly he's not earning a ton of volume. He's a high eight out guy is eight out all four years of college over 15. And then you go to the pro level, first two years doesn't earn targets on a per route basis has yards per route around one, which is not good. The second year was lower. It was a point eight five. His first year was one two five. And then the last two years has been very good. The numbers have been better on a per route basis. So you're paying for those last two years, but the targets brought still not really really strong, which I mentioned because targets brought predicts itself pretty well. It's important number as far as what a player is. The key stat for me is that both of the last two years that you're paying for, and he's been very good as yards per target the after the target efficiency have been over 12, both years. He's been really strong. He's made a lot of plays down the field.

12:14And that's a really important skill set. We know explosives are at a premium in the NFL right now. This guy gets vertical and wins at the catchpoint. He's made some strong plays over the last couple of years. It's also really highly volatile efficiency metric. Downfield efficiency can come and go for guys. He's been really good two years in a row. And yet not on huge target volume. That's why I mentioned the targets prop being lower. And then the key stat what that I was saying was that his eight out both years has been over 20. This average depth of target over 20. And so that like there was a report from Stephen Holder, a coldspeaker reporter that they're talking about eight to 10 targets per game for him. I posted eight targets per game. The low side of that would be like 136 per game. There's only eight receivers in the NFL that had more last year. You're talking about the most elite target earning number ones in the NFL. I mean eight. He's got to be ninth in the NFL on the low side of that in total targets for a guy that.

13:14And it's only two good seasons really. And I'm not saying the college stuff was bad. But for a collegiate prospect. It's not it's not dynamic and people made a lot of. I remember when he was coming out. Some people had out pierced a lot higher in their film grades because they blamed it on Desmond Redder. And we've seen the Desmond Redder probably wasn't a very good quarterback prospect. And maybe there was something to that. I'm not saying Alec Pierce is a bad player. I think he's actually probably a very good player. But as far as the amount of money they just paid him. I mean, it became the highest. Why do you have a contract of all time? Which you know, these markets always get reset. But. Massive massive money for a guy that's probably a vertical threat. A really good one and an important role player. But market forces push an important role player to. Now he's got to be like a top 10 wide receiver level producer. And the a dot's going to come down. He's not going to be over 20. But we're in the data. We're in the info. Like what I'm talking about is you have eight years. You have all the four college years matter. I mean, obviously they're. Not the most relevant at this point this far along.

14:16But it's still a data. And then the four years in the pros. You have all of this information. He's never had a targets per out over 17.5% in the pros. And you're going to say that is eight. That's going to come down. He's going to start winning all these other routes. I do think, you know, we've talked about with the RPOs and the Shane Steichen offense and the first read stuff. Michael Pittman got a lot of that over the years. Tyler Warren was getting it early last year. My expectation would be that out Pierce is going to get a lot more of that in the early part of the year that they're like. Turning him into a true number one. But you're you're paying him like a guy you expect to do a lot more than what he's been able to do. Just in the data that I'm referencing. And that's not all that he is. Or has to be in the future. We constantly talk about how these things evolve. But I mean, the interesting thing for me here, Sean, is that they transition tag Daniel Jones. That paid out Pierce the big deal at the 11th hour. And then they agreed to a deal with Daniel Jones. It was a two year deal. And some of that is just the way that these things work. And they got the leverage in this and that. And once they transition tag, they guarantee 37 million.

15:16And then they got to where they're guaranteeing Daniel Jones something like 60 million. Maybe Daniel Jones never accepts that deal before that. But it is one of these things where you look at it in hindsight. And you're like, man, if we would have got that Daniel Jones deal done before the tag, we could have tagged Pierce. Pay them top of the market money for one year. And seen if he could be this player at a lower eight ought to can earn consistent volume in the intermediate ranges and produce in those ranges. As well as the deep stuff. And do all this other stuff before we sat into a huge deal because if you had tagged Pierce a year from now. If he was great and he does everything that you're paying him now to do, you can go back and give him a huge deal. And great. I mean, you just gave him a huge deal. Like, you know, you're going to pay him what you're paying him anyway. And some of this is like, how much more is it than like it's a top of the market deal. But how much more is it than some baseline? Like, you're going to pay him 20 million a year anyway. How much more is whatever, whatever it came to? 30 million a year, what are 29 million a year, whatever it ended up being?

16:18114 million over four years, 28.5. It's a bump because it's free agency. It's a bump because you had to have it. There was also reporting that he could have got even more in on the open market. And you wanted to turn down high for deals. Yeah. So I mean, the whole thing of it is, is just a commentary on, you know, the reality and the practicality of free agency and what it all is because it's not. I mean, I don't, the cults needed a player like that. And you have to pay to get one. And if they didn't get it from him, they would have wanted to give 20 million to someone like him. So how much more is the extra eight and a half million per year? I mean, you can, you can say this a lot of different ways. If he's very good, very efficient as a vertical receiver. And that's a very important skill set to the entire passing game. But what, when we talk about it from fantasy Sean, all the stuff we just talked about is relevant to the context of. Is out here is going to be 140 target receiver like the beat reporters are speculating.

17:19I would say I'm not going to project it that way. I'm not going to draft it that way. I think his contract and what it means. And the trade of Michael Pittman is really good for the guys that already operated at the lower eight dots in an effective way. Tyler Warren and Josh Downs. This show is sponsored by better health. How do you handle stress, pressure, burnout and stay in sharp when things pile up with work, family relationships, expectations, goals, all those things roll. Then you start to factor in social media and all those different things. It can be challenging in 2026 to get the balance right. I've mentioned previously, but therapy was something that helped me to develop some healthy coping skills around those. Whether that's with friends, family work. Therapists helped me understand my relationship with those relationships before I started therapy with expectations and not those expectations placed on others on me, but my thoughts of their expectations and how that impacted what I expected of myself.

18:25Therapy isn't just for facing major challenges. It's a valuable tool for anyone looking to improve their wellbeing. It's challenging to make time for therapy, better help, make scheduling and attending your weekly sessions easy because it's all online. You can do phone video or message chat and with over 30,000 therapists, better help is the words largest online therapy platform. Prioritize your wellbeing with better health. Visit betterhelp.com slash rotoviz to get 10% off your first month. That's better help HGLP.com slash rotoviz. We had Alec Pierce up to 12.2 points for a game last year because he scored 29 in week 18. He had scored zero the week before. He has six games a year ago where he scores 10 points or fewer. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll do that again when you have a complete shift in usage. But this is something where I think this will be a big win for the cults from a reality perspective and probably not even certainly not from a cap management type of perspective.

19:35But when you think about winning in 2026 where you want to have this specific mix of attributes where you have the elite vertical receiver and Alec Pierce, you have one of the best if not the best one of the best. Young tight ends and where you have Josh Downs who can flourish underneath. You put that together with Daniel Jones with Shane Steichen calling the shots and with Jonathan Taylor, this should be again the type of offense that it was over the first half of last season when Daniel Jones was healthy where they are scoring on an absurd percentage of possessions and you're putting yourself in the mix to be a super bowl contender. You have the Houston Texans as really a Seattle Seahawks like team in that division. You have the Jacksonville Jaguars who very easily could be the best team in the NFL next year.

20:39The cults to do what they want to do. I mean, they needed Alec Pierce. It can be a win from that perspective and then also set up as a big trap for fantasy. One of the things that happened in 2024 is that according to SIS, Josh Downs posted a higher yard per route that season than Alec Pierce posted this most recent season and then he fell from 65% snaps to 59% snaps. In part because you have a healthy Michael Pittman and in part because Josh Downs is small and gets dinged up and isn't necessarily going to be an every down receiver regardless. But when you do have Josh Downs who is fantastic underneath. One of the most reasonable assumptions about the Pittman move is simply that you need to free up targets for war and downs and that you think these guys can do what he did in a way that is both more dynamic. And then also potentially freeze you up schematically to do more of the things. You don't have to force those targets to Pittman who Pittman played well last year.

21:41I think he's going to be good with the Pittsburgh Steelers and yet you could certainly argue that a lack of dynamism there if he's got to get his targets that it actually suffocates the offense a bit. You mentioned all the things that you don't know about Alec Pierce. And Pierce is a receiver who over the last two years combined has evaded two tackles. Now on the types of catches that he makes you don't necessarily expect to have a lot of evasion right you go and you search specifically for you filter for 15 plus area targets for Pierce and for Jamar Chase and you get similar evasion numbers on those very deep targets. But overall you get these great numbers for Chase because he is extremely dynamic. The point is that even though there's no evasion there for Pierce it doesn't mean that if he's deployed underneath that those numbers you know would stay at zero I mean they're going to go up. But we don't have evidence that he can actually it's just another point where you don't have evidence that he can fill these other roles or that you would really even want to use him that way.

22:47And so from the perspective of target earning I think you've got to be very skeptical about what the cults are saying in part because none of these kinds of statements are ever grounded right anytime someone's signs are running back they state a number of touches that is wildly out of whack with just the number of opportunities there are in a football game you go through and you look at what a team has said that is going to be the touches for their individual players. Like twice the number of snaps that you get on offense each week so exactly as you're saying somewhere between what he's done and what they're saying is where he'll come in you do expect him to be efficient. This is an interesting one but it sets up as a trap for fantasy but a fun one right I mean I'm excited to see what he does and and certainly if people who are enthusiastic about him draft them all the time if this Indianapolis offense explodes again when I know we do occasionally get these fifth year. Bumps but they are usually because a team that didn't have a player is then able to unlock them not that a team that already had him is suddenly like oh you know what we should use this guy differently.

23:54So what about the guys that did change teams because you you mentioned Wandaile and Romeo dobs we get them on to new rosters I think Wandaile's interesting from the perspective that his main skill set is earning a bunch of volume he's been a high. Per route target owner you know through his collegiate years and then at the NFL level and now he goes to team in Tennessee where my read on their offense last year was that they basically I mean we talked about it when we did a draft show recently when we did our first underdog draft together and I think we took Chimera D.K. obviously have L.A. O. Manor as well I felt like they took these two rookies on day three and had no option but to run them in a bunch of routes and so the fact that they got a bunch of routes as rookies is often a positive. Interestingly I think that would be something to be argued as a positive for Romeo dobs whose rookie year wasn't necessarily amazing but the fact that he got in the field so much early ended up showing

24:55an ability to grow into you know a stable number two type profile where in the early years we gave dobs a lot of grief for the after the catch efficiency he would really struggle to you hate it. We struggle with some drops but he struggled with stuff like on the sideline where like just get your two feet in balance he juggle a ball and go out of bounds and it would get ruled and complete on a ball that just had to be a catch. But he took the yards per out run up these last couple of years importantly this past year. This this after the target efficiency stuff is getting more cleaned up in the profile I don't remember seeing it a lot watching all the games I used to write about it a lot say knows man he left points on the field again drops are a huge deal but it's it's exhausting when it's constant and it can lead to a lack of playing time as a result like players can lose work and routes and never and never. Went that way for dogs and he actually cleaned up some of it as he's gotten a little older so I think he's gotten better more consistent more interesting as a player. And some of that goes back to hey got on the field early earlier than you would have expected first draft capital and those were positive signals and so you could make a similar case when I go back over to this Tennessee situation for those guys but I think the interesting thing with those guys is they got on the field.

26:09In a situation where they had to I mean all they had was Calvin Ridley Tyler lock it was clearly over the hill I think when you looked at his profile and they ended up you know really granting his requested release in season. Ridley only runs like a hundred routes before he gets heard and ends up missing the majority of the season. He had a decent per out year and we're in 160 routes by pffs numbers had a decent year. Ridley and I think. Could still be a reasonable producer he's not so so old. Not a guy that I'm like jumping to to draft but he's going really really late in early drafts so when I wrote up the. The field tippers piece the piece where I talk about all the different receiving profiles are on the league I did say that I thought his early price was. Worth looking at because I think it further does get back to a healthy season and run 500 routes that he's going to return value in best ball formats where he's got 150 80 p or whatever it is.

27:10But other than him I do think the young guys are probably not. I mean you don't want to you don't want to act too quickly but I gave the take on the on the draft stuff that sometimes you do want to act quickly and. If I'm not really willing to give him a ton of credit for just getting on the field because they kind of had no choice but to get these guys in the field I don't know who else they would have played is more of a team building issue. Then you look at one down Robinson you say okay this guy comes in what's the offense going to look like. Probably going to run the ball a decent amount but can ward when he's back there is willing to throw it he doesn't take a you know a massive number of sacks he's willing to sling it around a little bit. I think it takes sacks at a decent clip you probably know better than me what his profile was there but. I felt like he was one of these not on the Jacobi percent level but even if he's not a great quarterback he's one of these quarterbacks that can elevate past volume for an offense because he does. Take throws into maybe even tight windows and some of these things.

28:11I mean give me a guy who's a known target earner in one down Robinson in that offense and I'm at least interested if he's running rounds against a lot of guys that don't earn a lot of volume. Doesn't mean I'm going to be like massively all in on one down Robinson because there's some limitations to that profile as well. The dobs thing I mean they got a decent price on him he wasn't massively expensive and the patrons did need to develop the receiving core I don't think it prevents them from potentially trading for a J brown or somebody later in the summer Brian Thomas whoever it may be. If they were able to add like an a J brown with a Romeo dobs and I think you're talking about a pretty good one to step to address your receiving core in the off season. But yeah I mean tops is probably not going to be a number one or take another step I mean all these guys are probably limited and you have to pay quite a bit and create and see for what what did you think about the Robinson tops. Today's show is sponsored by strawberry dot me let me ask you something do you think championship athletes got to the top by guessing no they had coaching every elite athlete has a coach watching their form calling the plays and spotting the blind spots they can't see themselves that's how championships are one.

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30:21Now I am a believer in America that's worth fighting for. Join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Robinson is just fascinating because you talked about how difficult it is to get to 140 targets and Robinson has done that both of the last two years which even people who are paying really close attention I think would be surprised by that. The fact that he did it in 2024 and didn't gain 700 yards is maybe one of the most incredible accomplishments from the perspective hitting the two ends that you could possibly do. He comes back he does it in one last game in 2025 does go over a thousand yards. His yards per reception obviously have to jump significantly more than two yards there yours for target just one or the two yards per reception jumps much more than that. One of the things that's interesting with him is that a lot of the profile there where he's catching the ball underneath and then does get good yak is what you would expect when you have all of these underneath targets.

31:26That doesn't mean that everybody can do it right is what you expect from the players who are specifically filling that role and can do it. And so if you're both drawing targets and then you're getting those yards after the catch that's certainly encouraging there. The thing for me is that we've always sort of hope that one Dale would be dynamic would be an interesting NFL player in a different situation. And then and even he has you know alluded in the past to the desire to have some more vertical routes. I mean brand able is the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. So we have this situation where it's like right back to filling this role that was still frustrating for everybody over the first four years of his career. But as you pointed out we're talking about fits I think with these teams who have gone ahead and splurged and that's probably the same thing that you're getting with the patriots where one of the reasons that Drake may is a viable MVP even if you know even once we know about what happened in the playoffs where you have four bad games is that he has no one to throw to all of the magic

32:40from his 2025 season came with non starting caliber players maybe even non replacement level players starting and running routes out there for the patriots Romeo dobs is above replacement level. The question is probably by how much right talking about somebody who I mean the packers are probably very happy to let go so they can run their offense now with Christian Watson and read and then their young second year breakout player in Matthew golden. Then the thing that doesn't really fit for me here or I think it's tricky about dobs is this the player who does a lot of things well and can be used all over the field but doesn't really have a signature element to his game which in that way it probably makes you less of a tactical fit for most teams. But maybe a better fit for a team that simply needs a starter right you think about dobs he can be used all over he's got that a dot that's sort of in the middle he does he made some tackles he had his best season in 2025 from a catch perspective now that's

33:54still a little bit of a concern he comes in with pretty bad numbers for his first three seasons as a rookie he has an 11% drop rate that's very disconcerting in 2024 he had a 77% on target catch percentage which is catastrophically bad. So then you do get the good year or the solid year in 2025 very few drops still on target catch percentage that is so so the concern for me would be that these patriots receivers don't get open but when they were the target of the past last year their ability to catch the ball and or just the the flukiness of what you got from a full season from a catch rate perspective was astonishing we talk several times about how the sea hawks and the patriots basically went through the entire season with virtually no drops from the receiving core. If you have some like dogs who's going to separate a little better who's going to allow you to do a lot of things who's going to be that replacement for Stefan digs which is I believe how they have described him.

34:56And that guy goes out there and does some of those things but also drops some passes unless you have gotten more aggressive with your offense you're not doing as much sort of clock killing and clock suffocating from the perspective of deploying or Monterey Stevenson or the like. Then I mean those drops are going to be a problem because you're simply not throwing the ball enough if they throw the ball more if you unlocks the passing offense and you say unlocks the passing offense for someone who just had a spectacular passing season but obviously we're talking about being able to do it in the games that matter you could have some trade offs there. I love that point about dobs as more meaningful for an offense that just needs like a baseline competent player that's basically the case I was making for Robinson and I mean you were talking about what he did in 2024 but one of my central points about why it was draft one 2025 was that. 2024 was an outlier basically the way that that happened like he was going to have to have some areas and things are going to have to shift.

36:01The same way that talking about out here seven 20 yard eight ought is. Even both of the last two years is it's very unlikely for him to do it again next year it's going to come down for Robinson it was very unlikely that he wouldn't get some type of additional. Area yards or bump or like his yards protagonist can be as. Ridiculously low as they had been. And they did use him under table before table was fired more vertically early in the season he had the huge game in Dallas. And a long touchdown catch and then another catch I think went down inside the 10 but like a couple like 40 yard catches in that game in like week two. So anyway it'll be interesting to see how. He's used with Kim Ward because I thought a lot of it was quarterback driven and then you get under you know Russell Wilson that was part of what I thought with Robinson was you put him with Russell Wilson you put him with Jackson dark was a vertical profile as well and there will be some area yards.

37:02That kind of quarterback is willing to push it down the field if Robinson catches or earns a lot of volume in the underneath ranges and then it's able to also. See higher a dot volume I mean I think he could be an interesting player these are I mean. Not the most exciting names they're kind of actually boring names that we've started on you referenced earlier the chiefs the running back position we've talked about it a bunch for them over the years. One of the things I thought was funny was as a Pacheco got announced to the lions. I saw a tweet from one of the big accounts that was like what's the new nickname for Gibbs and Pacheco is like their pictures what's the new nickname because they've been Sonic and knuckles Gibbs in David Montgomery and I was like Gibbs and Gibbs is back up like in my head like what I say Pacheco's not David Montgomery this is not a one to punch they drop they they signed a backup running back because they need running back depth. The details of the contract came out Sean and it's one year and it's like 1.2 million it's no money and I was wrong about Javonte Williams contract last year not matter if that was 3 million I mean that was more than twice as much as Pacheco.

38:15And typically when you see a contract like this it means obviously people were not breaking down the door to go get Isaiah Pacheco that's what we've been trying to say for the last few years. That Isaiah and some people say it was the injury that changed things for Pacheco even when he was at his best he was a run to daylight guy who had athleticism but wasn't efficient you know I once had a probably my most viral tweet ever that I wrote that whatever there they say some running back sir you have no wasted movement and Isaiah Pacheco is whatever the opposite of that is which is constantly seems to be exerting a ton of energy to stop into the ground and all those things. But what we've wanted for the chiefs is players that can add something to what's blocked and what's there and what the defenses are doing and that's so much when we talk about the players we don't recognize that it's not apples to apples but man when you play the chiefs if you're the back for the chiefs what you run into is. When what the chiefs run into when the ways the teams play them is a lot of DBs on the field dropping into coverages doing the rotational things the whole game plan is about how can we fluster Patrick my homes how can we create issues for Patrick my homes we'll try to stop the run as well but if we give up a hundred yards Isaiah Pacheco on the ground we're that's probably a positive in some ways and that's something you and I talked about going back a few years.

39:39They needed someone who could make teams pay for those defensive game plans a little bit more Kenneth Walker to me is a really good fit from that regard the issues with Kenneth Walker have been that he bounces things too much sometimes he's not a great success rate runner a lot of those things you put him in an offense that generates. He generates yards before contact because of the personnel that forced defenses into generate space to run to and gives a guy like Kenneth Walker the ability to get down field and then uses dynamism he is a better runner than an Isaiah Pacheco or whatever else the chiefs meaningfully better than a cream hunter any of these other guys at the second level in terms of the mist tackles forced in terms of the big play ability in terms of turning. A play where he gets a toss on the perimeter like he did in the postseason several times for Seattle and gets guys moving and then finds cut back lanes and and picks a spots in terms of into an explosive run he's one of the best in the league at that he's a dog Walker winner in college he showed that a Michigan state right this is a profile.

40:42That if you give him daylight to run to he's going to be able to create some explosive plays are you excited about the fit with the chief I have not heard your take on this you talk a lot about the chiefs and running back position you wanted breeze hall. It was comical when I told you about the trade details to you that the chiefs would not be willing to give up a third for breeze hall at the time in season last year we've talked a ton about how john and Taylor instead of. Clatter words a layer a few years ago would have been way more meaningful for this offense in all of these ways that's a home run hitting running back that gets downhill when you give him a crease that's he's been hitting home runs even in the Colts offenses that are not giving him as much cover from the quarterback position in terms of what the defensive personnel is on the field and what the schemes they're running are they don't have to worry about Daniel Jones and yet Jonathan Taylor still running for long touchdowns. Is Ken Walker for the chiefs as good of a fit because to me he's not Jonathan Taylor but to me it's it's you're going to get the best version of that player I think it's a really good signing.

41:47Well you and I have been very high on Walker since his rookie season and there certainly been some moments where that worked out really well for us right and there was a moment where it worked out really well for the Seattle sea hawks which was the 2025 playoffs. And I mean you've got to try and check a little bit of that bias and a little bit of that enthusiasm let me say bias I mean we would argue that it's. The proper evaluation of how good this guy is but you know when you've been an enthusiast you want to make sure that it really all does track I had floated to you. A week ago with the rookie stuff that maybe Jeremiah loved to the chiefs was not that great of a fit and I mean you lost it there you like that's that's taking it too far. The interesting thing here with Walker will be how his style fits with the chiefs because at least on the surface it seems like it could be sensational.

42:57So I want to read you a few stats that I think in the end end up being pretty. Absolutely is here right so we look at Isaiah Pacheco for the last four years these are just the total numbers. I just want to cut it I hope the audience is on the edge of their seat like I am because I have no idea whether you're going to conclude that this is a positive or negative but go to the stats. Actually I will do this in order starting with 2022 we get a 9% evasion rate for Isaiah Pacheco. 2023 12% 2024 5% which basically just means you're kneeling down in the backfield and then 2025 is 9%. So 2024 I guess he came back from the injury as well I was going to say that was before the injury but some of that was he did return. I guess most of that was was I'm trying to sorry to he only played two games before the injury most of that was actually post injury okay so.

44:06And people will note that the yards per carry numbers did really drop when we talk about that 2022 season where he averaged 4.9 yards per carry right on a per carry basis obviously fantastic a 9% evasion rate. Contrast that with Kenneth Walker who in 2022 was at 22% and 2023 25% and 2024 30% blowing away the rest of the NFL. And 2025 23% so we get a lot of three at a Pacheco's high was 12 12 then the other thing is you know what's the blocking like what's the fit like what are the teams doing to incentivize the chiefs to run. So we can and again some of these numbers are not going to be maybe as helpful completely out of context if you're not used to looking at what the normal numbers are but the contrast are just so fun right we look at Isaiah Pacheco and the stuff percentage.

45:09In 2022 it's 12% then that's extremely up 2023 17% not quite as good 2024 14% 2025 9% stop rate Kenneth Walker we're talking about with the Seattle blocking and the way that the team has wanted to run this we have 2022 24% stuffs not hit at the line of scrimmage. That's 38% but just find out stuffs 24% of his carries are stuffs. 2023 22% hit at the line of scrimmage 42% of the time 2024 22% stuffs and then 2025 19% stuffs the 2024 one then he was hit out the line on 48% of his carries. So now again you can you can say that some of that is because he's running side to side and spent a lot of time with Charbonate was Charbonate meaningfully better no so Charbonate we know doesn't spend as much time back there.

46:19Interestingly enough Charbonate in 2024 was hit at the line on 53% of his carries and then last year 46% his stuff rates 24% and 22% now we know that what they do to overcome getting hit at the line is very different. They have two very different running styles and profiles but what they're dealing with in terms of getting hit at the line and stuffed at the line of scrimmage is similar. The chiefs are going to offer such a different environment than we're talking about someone so with Kenneth Walker we got a couple different things right we have an ability to evade tackles both force missed tackles and broken tackles at rates that are at the very top of the NFL but we also have a back with plus plus speed. And when you put those two things together I mean you're talking about like a March on Lynch type of back with a Jonathan Taylor type of back where you have the the evasion and you have this run the daylight.

47:21The question is always is he going to still bust a lot of runs because he refuses just to take what's there. But in so many ways this is the perfect fit for him because what's there when you have Patrick my homes and the opposing defense is saying just run it we don't care what's there is going to be a lot right you have so many situations where the before so one of the things that was always just the biggest contrast and football is the chiefs especially I believe in 2024 had these crazy numbers in yards before contact and yet no 20 yard runs. Right you go and you look at the 20 yard runs for the chiefs over the last couple years and I even wrote that going into this last year was that it was almost impossible for their offense to stay at the levels that they had had in terms of 15 plus runs and 20 plus runs and then things melted down and they did it again. We know that the passing is the most important thing in making your offense work we know that having a high pass rate and having high pass efficiency is going to be incredibly important.

48:24And yet what Walker does for the chiefs should be somewhat similar to what Derek Henry did in his first year for the Ravens what say clon Barkley did in his first year for the Eagles what Jonathan Taylor was able to do last year when Daniel Jones was healthy and then what Kenneth Walker actually did for the Seattle Seahawks in helping them win a Super Bowl where there were no effective classic plays basically in the entire game. No guarantees but this is the perfect fit in terms of the right guy for the chiefs and for Kenneth Walker's perspective obviously I think it's got to be the perfect situation for him and to come out where he could get the chiefs and get a great contract certainly a win win. That will be one of the most fun players in situations to analyze those numbers I mean you basically just that's what I was saying on vibes that I feel right that Kenneth Walker is going to have room to run right he's not going to be getting stuff as much all of those elements those numbers very very fun certainly didn't do anything to temper that enthusiasm.

49:29Sean let's go to another receiver we got Mike Evans to the 49ers I was a little bit optimistic about Ricky Pierce all in my field tippers article a big part of it for me was that he could have legit like pretty clearly become the number one what I think is fascinating about the Evans ad who everyone's pointing out is very similar to like what Brandon I you did in the offense a higher eight guy going to run verticals but also in breakers out breakers but downfield but Pierce all last year took a huge step forward in targets per route and he also jumped multiple yards and eight odd he was at a 14 yard eight odd last year targets brought up at 18% was a very good year to volume on a per out basis jump for Pierce all who everyone wanted to point out after you're one dealt with the gunshot wound a lot of other things throughout that season I still thought there were some concerns including after you came back from the gunshot wound you got a lot of volume early and then they went away from from a long time and then they got him some more volume when their season was done in week 17 and 18 and it felt more like there are manufacturing stuff for him then he was really sort of earning it and during the brief period where they were just trying to be competitive and they had healthy guys they this is his rookie or he wasn't getting a lot of volume and I think he answered all of that for me in year two more consistent volume at a time when he was

50:52hired death with again efficiency that the thing about him that you'd be optimistic about with Pierce all his efficiency after the target he's athletic he had that in college he had it as a rookie he had even better efficiency after the target in year two and Kyle Shanahan's often should be helpful there create yak opportunities and all those things. So there was a reason to be like okay Pierce was probably not going to be a 140 target receiver but he can be efficient per target and he's probably going to see targets and he's going to have a high eight odd and this stuff's good Mike Evans 14.48 odd last year Ricky piercels 14 a dot he had an 18.2% targets per out I'm saying that was a bump up multiple I think it was about four percentage points higher than his rookie season. Evans last year was still at a 26% targets per out at his age I mean it's way it's a different plane and this has been Evans in his whole career now 26 is high for him in the later part of his career he's more in the low 20s typically. But piercels a guy who was not hit 20 yet in terms of targets per out despite passing games that have needed that frankly over the last two years for the Niners brand I you can

52:01play it over the last two years where piercels been playing a lot because he got hurt early in 2024 when piercels hadn't really made his debut yet last year to one Jennings really struggled they needed as much as they could get out of pierce all last year. Think you had a really great year Mike Evans is a guy who still at his age earns a ton of volume per out or always has with Tampa and that's been the. Defining feature of Mike Evans career to me when I look at these per out things in this profile it's always a stronger targets per out at a higher eight odd then really should go together like when we're talking about out pierce a big part of the reason that when you have a twenty eight odd you can't earn massive targets per out is you got to run 20 yards down the field right those routes take long to develop it's different and that's why people are saying the Colts made you some different things with him etc Mike Evans throughout his career despite the fact that most of his route tree is pretty vertical and there's going to be place where the ball goes out quick to Chris Godwin or somebody else when he actually gets down field and Baker Mayfield or whoever's quarterbacks are Tom Brady anybody has had time to sit back there and look down the field.

53:06More not just more often than not but more often than almost any receiver in the league Mike Evans has created a place for his wide receiver to throw the ball vertically and so he gets a lot of volume for how high his eight odd is I think the fit is really interesting because I think he does make a lot of sense operating in the spaces were brand and I you was operating I think he can still be very good I think he'll be efficient because of Kyle Shanahan because of that offense George Kittle coming off in a kill these tear there's talk that he could be ready early in the in the season but probably going to miss a decent amount of the season I would guess and maybe not be the same guy christian McCaffrey ran the most routes of the running back position last year and yet we know he's not the picture of health forever can't be if he doesn't stay healthy and you know I mean that would open up a lot of targets whatever other running backs on the field is not going to get as much volume however you do have a lot of time. George McCaffrey you have George Kittle in this passing game if those guys are healthy you're talking about elites at both of those non wide receiver target earning positions running back and tied in and so it really does come down to like okay who's the wide receiver is there room for two receivers how does this work Mike Evans to San Francisco is pretty intriguing to me

54:26and I do think it's a little bit of an overlap with pier saw where I still think pier saw can be an efficient player off of that it may even open up stuff for pier saw but probably he's like a clear tier below Evans in target earning like a clear number two type of thing as far as the wide receivers and the you know targets per out in the weighted targets per out which is going to factor in a dot which I like to look at. Are you thinking about the same way or do you think that pier saw being the younger player ascending player a big part of this for me is that's hard is that Evans is old right and pier saw is young and is ascending and yet Evans profile as a guy who three year college early to clear elite production profile in college and then like 15 years of elite production volume wise at depths in the pros and pier saw was a guy coming out of Florida that he had questions about the ability to actually be consistent and earn volume and all of those things and that's been a concern at the NFL level getting up to like I said in 18% targets per out what that symbolizes for me what the conversation was last years it's sometimes he's taking too long to get out of his is breaks there was actual actual talk about that out of 49ers camp that

55:36that parties like ready for him and the timing's not right because he's throwing too many jokes in and these things there's a sudden this required a wide receiver and all of those types of things so pier saw ascending player Evans declining player but whatever their peaks are when you look back at their careers 20 years from now massively like tier breaks in terms of what they actually are as consistent separators and round runners and those things dating to collegiate profiles dating to lots of information there so help me parse it am I wrong with Evans at his age that he could still be a tier better than pier saw or should we think the pier saw as the young guy going into your three is still like a really strong play has the news been getting you down I'm Megan McCartle and I'm here to help I'm the host of a news show from Washington post opinion called reasonably optimistic and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a pattern who see a path forward does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are you know I am a believer in America that's worth fighting for join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts

56:50I want to ask you about the fit here because in so many ways so Mike Evans is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and when you think about what he's done with a thousand yard seasons with the ability to do it as a vertical receiver you're talking about an all time great and so we want to make sure as I go into some weaknesses I want to stipulate that right the question would be if he is now more of a Portland Sutton type of player where you have some verticality but there's a catch and fall down type of element to it that especially in a Kyle Shanahan offense where so much of his genius is figuring out how to get his guys the ball a whether wide open but then be you then have the ability to run and if in that way Evans isn't one of the worst fits that we have among you know various the problem is just you have very few players to choose from right we talked about how the earlier guys at the beginning of show are underwhelming for big contracts

58:00but when you have a Mike Evans and throughout his career the genius is the route running and the ability to get open at intermediate and vertical depths and to draw so much volume and then he's this red zone score and especially with Tom Brady was a red zone score that you know more or less on parallel so that's a massive weapon is at the best fit for the 49ers and then the other problem that we have is that we don't really know where he was last year and if you don't know where a player was in the previous season it's very difficult to make any kind of solid projections about where they will be in their age 33 campaign right we've now entered this territory where all bets are off at least to an extent you have the 2025 season he has the hamstring strain early that's going to limit him to an extent then you have the play where he suffers the concussion breaks his collarbone misses a big chunk of the season and then comes back and plays some at the very end well that already kind of predisposes us to a case where he's probably not going to have this normal numbers

59:07but in 2024 you finally have some decline in the ADOT the target depth on completions is well down the target depth again on completions last year is down and then in sort of a funny again sort of Portland Sutton-esque stat he averaged 1.2 yards after the catch last year which among receivers with at least three targets per game ranked 98th so I mean that's going to change in a Kyle Shanahan offense you're going to have yards after the catch the question is are you going to have enough to generate or to justify the contract to make him a good fit is that going to be enough to make him the guy that they build the offense around in contrast to as you mentioned the rising young probably not star but the player who I think you could argue does fit what they want to do and now might actually be unlocked off of Mike Evans in 2016 Mike Evans was a 23 year old age three player led the NFL in targets was his breakout season

1:00:16he had had a really strong year that year before but only scored three touchdowns and as a rookie he had a thousand yards and 12 TV so when I say break out season I mean I mean he was like I think the overall wide receiver one like he was like he's an elite fantasy receiver he had already broken out by most metrics I have his yards after the catch perception that you're at two you said 1.2 last year the knock on Mike Evans this whole career has been that he's a catch and fall down guy his entire career and so it is interesting at his high eight odds that you know he's never actually added a lot he's been a contested catch guys uses physicality his hands his body control even in his prime in his best seasons now that's that's an outlier most of time he was over three yards after the catch per reception in the more recent seasons he was over three the fact that he fell away to 1.2 to your point last year was bad his yards per target and Ben just also to make sure we're calibrating right in the 2015 to 2018 time period where we're talking about 16 game seasons he had three years out of four with over 2100 area yards

1:01:21in his career sense have still been very good especially including a 2023 was the one kind of big bounce back season but as vertical as he remains like that chunk from 2015 to 2018 and you could definitely be like just catch him like immediately go into a ball if you can generate that many area but so the 2015 and 2016 I'm saying are the highest weighted targets per route of his career 2017 and 18 lower weighted targets per route and by a chunk than each of the last three years so even the last three years the big difference is the route volume and so you're talking about the total area yards his area yards per route was still strong last three years you said 2023 they were still there he also 24 was the best yards per out run of his career he only played 14 games so we didn't end up with quite as many area yards that year he's coming off 2 2.3 yards per out run seasons going into 2025

1:02:222025 is a bad year lowest yards per out run of his career lowest yards per target by like a yard and a half like way lower and this gets to your point about there's no yak there was also no efficiency it was only 227 routes and he played hurt it was the fewest routes he's run his whole whole career he's 33 I think there's everything you said is very valid at the same time 2025 objectively bad year 227 route sample both 23 and 24 were so strong on paper to me and not like requiring massive yak numbers or anything different well the 2024 season as I'm saying on a couple of different sources here you I mean you do have that meaningful a dot decline and so it's interesting from the perspective of how efficient that season was that that's the Liam Cohen season certainly if you believe the Kyle Shanahan can do similar things and that he hasn't declined in the time in between

1:03:22then you're going to be pretty fired up about it because like that's more flexibility and more genius in the play collar than maybe what he's had at other times in his career and yeah to be clear I don't I mean I'm never going to be like he's super excited about drafting a 33 year old receiver and I'm looking at the the underdog response and right now I've in Zadipy 57 is higher than I thought it was I mean that's in the fifth round I don't I mean I guess I thought you'd get a little bit of a discount Pierce also 79 I was thinking they were going to win closer I'm not tracking the movement right now very well but I guess I thought Pierce I thought they were close maybe Evans has risen since the signing I don't know don't take my word on any market movement stuff because again I'm not drafting really at all but the market as I'm looking at it right now has Evans multiple rounds higher than Pierce all and in a range that I'm you know I'm in our conversation right now I'm the one that's being the devil's

1:04:23ad for the kid in supporting him but I don't even want to draft him there like that's that's pretty aggressive I think when you think about Christian McCaffrey in the offense and you think about George Kittle coming back and being a part of the offense and you think about the skills stuff and the potential fit stuff that you just talked about I think that's very real I mean is my Kevin's one at the end of the fifth round an hour draft that we did a couple weeks ago that we did the show okay so he's been going that high okay yeah I mean you go look through his career it famously has the thousand yards stretch all the way until last year at least a thousand yards every year of his career not a tiny years over 1200 you know he has multiple seasons he actually had three years in that stretch where he didn't even get to a thousand and ten yards he got a thousand and one one time a thousand and six and then a thousand and four in 2024 couple in the a thousand to twelve hundred range as well his peak seasons he had a fifteen hundred yard season in 2018 he had a thirteen hundred yard season that twenty sixteen season I mentioned those are the only two times he's hit thirteen hundred he had in twenty twenty three twelve

1:05:28hundred and fifty that's the only other time he's gone over twelve oh sex his whole career this is just pure yardage and some of it is that he's played like fifteen games more often than he's played sixteen and decent amount as well back when it was sixteen game seasons but he's often be reasonably healthy actually only have four wide receiver one finishes in fantasy is is pretty shocking oh and where I was going to go he said we all wide receiver two so you're still doing fine but as good as he has been again all time great to only to have played that long that many you know long of a healthy stretch and only have the four you know top twelve finishes that's surprising to me because where I was going to go with it was to say that even with the yards being limited that the production spend it through the touchdowns he has six seasons of double digit TV six of eleven or more touchdowns and you're saying that only four years because it does reinforce the point I was just making that a lot of these years the yardage was not elite and my point there was going to be

1:06:31if he has a thousand yard season but doesn't have double digit touchdowns because it doesn't quite fit the exact same way in terms of the red zone role because what they what Kyle Shanahan does in the red zone it's probably less likely to be just throw it up to Mike Evans right it's going to be a little bit more scheme it's going to be a little bit more movement and things there's going to be plays that go to like how you check but a lot of it is going to go to christian McCaffrey is what it's going to be it's going to be runs or short passes to McCaffrey he's going to score a lot of touchdowns it's tough for Mike Evans to come on to this team he's never had a running back on his rosters that was a 20 touchdown running back right like in in Tampa Leonard for net for a stretch there was scoring some TVs and things but Mike Evans has been their goal line back for like a long portion of his career that's not the way that Sam friends offense is I would not going to so I guess my question would be do we have so we have some risk there but is there potential to get what we just saw from Devonte Adams where the team is like we spent money a declining superstar why don't we

1:07:38set him up to lead the NFL in touchdowns even if the other elements of the performance aren't there and that even in the fifth round especially in basketball where you're looking for those touchdown spikes that he's actually pretty undervalued still these prices well I mean if he scores 14 TVs like Adams any would be and part of what we're talking about with all these touchdowns is a skill set that we often talk about like the contested catches and those things are challenging I think with Mike Evans even though he's 33 there's irrefutable evidence that he's when you said like you know in some ways one of the best receivers of all time he's legitimately one of the best receivers of all time at the catchpoint like as far as using his body orienting himself and being able to bring in difficult to catch passes because again the high eight out stuff the ariards the ability to bring it those are always lower catch rate plays and he has made it a whole career on winning in like often with a safety bearing down on you and double coverage where you have to be physical you have to be tough and then winning

1:08:40in the red zone again where it's condensed where a second defender is coming down and you have to be physical you have to be tough you have to get up at the at the apex you know when at the catchpoint when a contested catch whatever sometimes contested catch stuff is not particularly sticky I think we have overwhelming evidence with Mike Evans that as long as there's not an age cliff component that he has a skill set that if they wanted to do what you just said if they and we know the calcium they there are their offices are not the exact same but they are somewhat linked and they they do kind of pull off each other at times maybe Shanahan saying I saw what the Rams did last year with with the Vonte Adams the looks that were getting down in there you're always going to get one on one on the on the perimeter because they don't want to just give you an easy run and I like the idea of being able to have a man beater on the perimeter in a physical jump all situation which is basically what the Vonte Adams was like hey just go win on a fade route and he was winning every hour slant or whatever and he was winning like every single

1:09:40time because he's always been able to do that Evans a slightly different player but same same concept potentially if if Shanahan seeing it that way I could totally see that too I mean it's a it's a fascinating one to see where he fits into this offense I do think for the reasons you're talking about I don't think we should expect a ton of yards I do think you're playing for touchdowns it's a little bit of hey if you're in a half PPR or you're in a standard league I'm I'm more excited about my Kevin's then if you're playing in a full PPR format and best ball probably more excited about my Kevin's because the way that the touchdowns are just going to you know hit your line up and you don't have to worry about down games whereas in managed I don't know that I necessarily want to be making that bet I want to try to find really you know PPR managed I want to try to find really consistent breakout players that are putting up 1500 yard seasons every week and I mean for the season and then every week you're having the huge volume and the way that way that plays in a you know weekly league is a little bit different so maybe it's a you

1:10:40know a little bit of a format specific thing but did you comment on pierce all it all there really I was curious what your thoughts are on him as it relates all this I think I would just echo your notes there I think we still have a very wide range of potential outcomes with him in part because I don't think that we know what the target landscape is going to look like and I don't think that we know yet and part of this is based on the fact that they significantly over drafted him based on let us say so we don't really know what he is and so if you don't know what he is and you don't know what the target landscape is going to be then at the right price which it does really seem like we're getting you can bet on a breakout at least to a certain level of shares then you were talking about the the fantastic at one of the things that I did want to throw in but overlooked a moment ago was another element where I'm saying we got a

1:11:40small sample from Mike Evans last year because he missed a huge chunk of the season I think we can basically throw it out but it was a weird season and one of the ways in which it was a weird season is that if we look at some of these guys who are very controversial not controversial who were awful last year there's nothing controversial about Jerry Judy he was terrible last season he had a 47% completion percentage on balls targeted to him and had a 77% on target catch rate Devonte Adams who had all the forced touchdowns was at 53% completions on a 78% on target catch rate Mike Evans actually slid in between those two guys with 49% completions on a 78% on target catch rate I mean at a certain time you do get old I don't necessarily think that's where we are with Mike Evans but it was his play along with

1:12:42all of the drops from Annika Buca Buca was slightly worse than Evans in those numbers did make it very difficult for Baker Mayfield to consistently keep drives alive and led to obviously a reshuffling there with the overall offense. I'm looking through the different deals trying to think about what people would like to hear us pivot to on the note of us kind of parsing a veteran receiver I am interested in DJ Moore or did we already talk about DJ Moore? His trade was announced just after we finished recording last time. So we didn't get chance to talk about him yet to the bills. Another one where the 2025 numbers are really pretty poor. In 2024 was poor as well but in a different way he was still earning some volume but the efficiency was really bad and that really poor offense where everyone's efficiency was really pretty bad.

1:13:44I think I was a little bit defensive of Moore's like yards per out run from 2024 from the perspective that basically no one had good yards per out run there was the really high sack rate in Caleb Williams rookie season so you have a lot of routes that don't even generate a target at all I think Moore had the highest targets per out even though well Keenan Allen was was in that offense as well and he had a slightly higher one but his yards per out run Allen's were even worse from a doonzane's even worse as a rookie that 2024 team the past game was just really really bad obviously had Shane Waldron and then Shane Waldron and Eber Fluss both get fired in season. 2025 for Moore the efficiency the after the target efficiency actually rebounds a little bit but the targets per out completely crater new career low he was all the way down to a 14.3% targets per out in 2024 by comparison when I said it was he was still earning targets he was over 20% he'd been over 20% every year since

1:14:47his second season you have to call it back to his rookie year to find a year where he wasn't a 20% plus targets per out guy which is at least like a good you know secondary wide receiver number if not you know some of his best years like clear number one numbers he gets up to a 25% targets per out in 2021 and was working with with Joe Brady at the time Brady I think was fired in season in 2021 was the OC for the Panthers in 2020 in 2021 is now the head coach of the bills who traded for Moore give a suck around pick to get him guaranteed some money in 2028 that they apparently did not need to guarantee they think he's got three more years in it he's still only 29 it's an interesting one I think I'm I'm willing to be optimistic here even though the profile this year was pretty poor because again it's it's something similar to like the Wanda Robinson thing where it's like nobody on the bills is a number one it's a little bit like

1:15:48my optimism for Stefan digs going to New England last year I guess is a good example where there were some concerns in the in the digs profile in the previous years but I wasn't confident that digs wasn't still a very good player and yet you know there's a lot of excuse making there a 1.22 yards per out run last year almost no volume being earned on a per out basis yeah with that I go back to you know from the off season Ben Johnson was talking about mostly defending Moore but there was like rumors that he was like the attitude wasn't right and some of that stuff and more with you know that actually Moore's been doing really good and he's trying really hard and all of these things and and yet throughout the season it didn't really seem like Moore was super engaged in his role in the offense or any of that stuff they were using a dunesay a little bit more like specifically in certain concepts early in the year a dunesay at times struggled with efficiency on the other end on the other end of that but I

1:16:48think it helped his volume certainly and then obviously late in the year you have the emergence of Colson you have the emergence of Luther Burton guys that are getting a lot of volume Moore is I believe he's 20 not he's going to 29 in April here so he's not he's 28 right now as we're recording this is going to play as age 29 season this year he's not meaningfully over the hill we talked about how some of these guys that make their killing with y'all like ball in hand we were a little concerned about it with Samuel last year at age 29 changing teams can he still be a lead at that skill I think I'm going to be a little bit optimistic man this is probably the best situation to be in on Moore for me in a while I've been you know I was early in his career famously a big time Moore fan and then wasn't into him when he was playing with Justin Fields and stuff and he had some good years and we talked about this a lot I think he's probably become cheap enough at this point that I'm I'm

1:17:50somewhat interested in age 29 what do you think? Moore is fascinating because I mean he seems like the guy who would have been the perfect fit for the 49ers and obviously different teams have different things that they can do to make these moves and get the guys that they want but you have someone who in 20 24 averaged six yards after the catch per reception and one of the things that was great about that season for him is that he had a men's number of underneath targets now the vertical targets in 2024 completely disappeared but you look at some of the other seasons of his career and he's got tons of success at that vertical level and one of the things that he has worked through in his career is very bad coaching quarterback play at times the majority of the time he's with the Panthers and then he moves to the situation with the Bears where he certainly could argue that with Caleb Williams they didn't use him that as you

1:18:51discussed the offense was a train wreck in Williams rookie season and then last year has a more peripheral piece that you know that caused a lack of motivation that then sort of was reinforcing in terms of not being as big a part of the game plan as he probably deserves when you go through and look at his evasion rates since 2020 they're consistently high when you look at the yards after the catch per reception in the recent past you know they're good to great and this is just so similar to the dig situation where digs was a receiver who had had seasons with the Vikings where he was targeted almost exclusively at the line of scrimmage and other seasons where he then targeted exclusively vertically and you're thinking to yourself if the person has shown that they can succeed if they can survive in both areas and why wouldn't you use him all over the field the bills did Stefan digs blew up as a star I mean we're talking about DJ Moore late in his

1:19:51career where there's real collapse risk and at the same time I think you can make the argument that he's perfect for what they want to do and or just that if you are the only guy who is a difference maker and you have Josh and I think that James Cook is good but there's absolutely no question that being in an offense where defenses are laser focused on Josh Allen that it helps cook in multiple ways both and that he's not the focal point of the defense but also that Allen's strengths amplify what Cook can do if you take more you take this commitment that the bills have made to him you look at the target landscape and you're probably not to the extent that digs did but you're looking at a fantasy eruption in the making right here DJ Moore would have to be very bad in 2026 to not thrive in this environment and it's possible that that he will be certainly it is discouraging that Ben Johnson wanted to go in a

1:20:53different direction as opposed to use him but we're now no longer in that environment are there other moves that you thought were so let me just throw some names out we have Malik Willis to the dolphins which is kind of interesting and also I mean the Cardinals were a big rumor there and I just really didn't want Tremick right back in the situation with a hyper mobile quarterback so I was I was pretty excited to see that they sign Garda Minchew and think they're just going to do Jacobi percent Garda Minchew but the Willis fit is interesting you get to a to Atlanta as a quarterback thing I say likely one of the more interesting maybe tight end landing spots of the Giants and then there's a bunch of running back stuff obviously you get ETN to the Saints you get Algier to the Cardinals some people really like that I didn't I mean two years 12 million not that much they also brought James Conner back on a on a adjusted deal the tray Benson stuff that I was trying to generate some high-plast time you and I talked looks dead but he's still on the roster and he's

1:21:54probably so the most talented play on the roster if he's healthy it's kind of one of these like flying the ointment things where he's on a rookie deal they're not going to cut him and if he does stay healthy and starts like generating some big plays that could be a problem for Algier I think I saw some people talking about Algier is potentially the lead back there like two years 12 million not a lot of money not something that I want to be super into gain well to the box you know I was talking about Bucky Irving potentially sharing a backfield with a more run first back like if they had brought back Sean Tucker being different than then Rashad White instead it feels like Bucky Irving is going to be sharing a back with a souped up version of Rashad White actually think that's pretty negative for Bucky Irving you got a really good passing down back in gain well I mean he's not like a perfect player or anything but he's going to play I think a little bit and so not my understanding this properly can you believe that they non-tendered Sean Tucker yeah that you're understanding it right now is a little bit like a Greg Omen who's been he does I think the whole NFC South now but he's been a a box guy was previously a

1:22:58box beat was talking about that that it seems like they're going to let him go that it was a bit of a surprise he was I saw him post about it there's a bit of surprise that there wasn't something there to at least try to get Tucker back in the fold as the RB three they use him as a kicker turner they use him on special teams and he's like a good RB three but it does seem like they are just letting him like letting him leave yeah weird that was my understanding at least as well so I don't think you're misunderstanding but yeah any of those oh Jayla Taylor got twenty three million dollars guaranteed from the Raiders when he had I mean his targets per route run the last couple years are like 11 percent I mean obviously the Vikings don't need him in route concepts they have a really good players but then is after the target efficiency it's like good but when guys are that low and targets per route it's like oh well they only get thrown the ball when the good players are covered they should have really good efficiency if they're really good players which I mean it can juice your after the target efficiency when your targets per route are so low just in the

1:24:00same way that if you're getting a ton of volume it's going to potentially negatively affect your efficiency his yards per hour on the last two years 1.07 1.06 after running 84 routes total across his first two seasons of four year career that is not that interesting and that is like just a guy the Raiders gave I mean it's it's modest 23 million guaranteed for team that's a lot of money is not a ton but like there's not even a clue be a tie in by the way he was the OC for Minnesota in 2021 Nailer was drafted in 2022 it's not even like they played like he coached him they missed by a year this stuff adds up for the Raiders who burned three draft picks on bad wide receivers last year they just keep like spending resource and this again it's not a ton of money but you're spending resources on players that are not difference making players they're like just a guy I don't know I thought the Nailer thing was weird you got a bunch of players that are back in their old teams JK Dobbins is back with the Broncos she feeds back with the Seahawks Travis Kelsey's back for another year with the Chiefs we were talking

1:25:00last year remember he's single one point the Chiefs probably just wish that he would have retired at a certain point and there was talk that he was going to leave KC which it seems like maybe KC feels a little bit like you were saying like they were like he just retired I guess we have to bring you back because like Patrick Mahomes and you like our business partners and like have a steakhouse together like yeah we know that your best friends with our franchise player but can you just retire anyway he's back he's 36 he and Rappaport tweeted at 36 Kelsey's play was at its usual level landing him in the Pro Bowl I just want to note that Travis Kelsey's career low yards per out run was in 2015 his second season 1.83 until the last two is typically over two until the last two years it was at 1.43 and 1.47 that's the player he's become the last two years not at the typical level and he's now 37 a lot of people will tell you the Travis Kelsey's the same guy I've seen that many times I don't know how you can say that but I threw a lot of names at you what do you what are you feeling well you

1:26:02talk about players who are going back to their teams so the Rashid Shaheed contract is interesting to me from the perspective of he is getting more money than Mike Evans and in terms of guaranteed money it's more than double it seems fairly absurd and yet it's also significantly less than Alec Pierce now his production last season was also less but I mean did the Seahawks just resign the exact so could his contract be bad and get the same time be a pretty nice arbitrage-ish type of play on what the cult stood with Alec Pierce you're not going to get him a sending to a wide receiver one role with JSN there but he's actually a player where if you now with the offseason may famously you have the trade and people are excited because Cooper Cup is playing so poorly and then Shaheed is

1:27:03basically just a special teams player but he's he's fast and being able to get over the top is important I think what you said is right there's probably a little overpaying at the same time probably exactly the fact that he adds elite level return ability in addition to vertical like legit vertical threat right those are not the return stuff with the the change in rules and stuff is is obviously important it's a it's an important thing to I think to do effectively I don't think you want to pay this kind of a contract just for a return specialist or anything but then we talked about with Pierce like the the ability to win vertically and threaten defenses vertically is one of the most important skill sets it's the one we often talk about is better for real fan real life teams and then fantasy teams at times when these guys are just running off safeties and things but especially with Jackson Smith and Jigba installed as your you know your superstar

1:28:03number one Shaheed is the perfect player to play off of that and you have Tory Horton coming he was a similar player to Shaheed in my mind he gets a little bit blocked now but you have some redundancy now in that if Shaheed gets banged up first stretch I think you're your two guy Tory Horton can play that role and you're basically just like yeah Cooper Cups a mascot at this point I mean that's part of why we were talking about the when I was at the beginning of the show saying oh you know I was wrong at the sea ox last year people kept telling me that blah blah blah I mean one of my points was like I acknowledge I was wrong many times but the other point was like you it you came in and said the the the note about some of what they did then and the fact that they were actually good because of the Jackson Smith and Jigba emerges in that stuff because the cup contract was obviously not helpful to them winning a Super Bowl I mean they spent they gave him a lot of stuff to basically be I don't know what way you want to call him he wasn't nothing but an aging version of himself

1:29:03I've made the case that they won more less in spite of Sam Darnold than because of as far as you know the credit that he's gotten in those things but yeah now I think Shaheed is a fit for working off of Jackson Smith and Jigba. It's good for Jackson Smith and Jigba that the 2026 version of this passing game is going to have not a meaningful target threat on a per out basis but skill sets that can attack defenses in a way that make it tough for Jackson Smith and Jigba to not again have a massive per out because the real thing with him is going to be like can he put up the same yards per out run that he just put up because the routes are going to be lower but he just put up these astronomical yards per out and targets per out numbers and my defense of JSN in that regard would be look at the guys that have done that recently in similar offices

1:30:03McShanehan style offices Tyree Kill in the Mike McDaniel offices was putting up ridiculous targets per out and yards per out for a couple of years of Miami and did it year over a year a couple of years in a row it didn't just rest and know where and then you go to the McVey offices and what Cup did and then really what Pukin Akua has done Pukin Akua targets per out the last couple of years meaningfully over 30% like really really high like 30% already elite and he's hitting like 35% on a per out basis their ability to target him more than a third of the routes he's running and defenses can't seem to take that away for whatever reason because of the way that the my understanding would be because the way that you're passing game fits together and the ways that you're attacking different space and then creating space for your best player to be the best player and win even though they're going to still try to double him or do soft coverage you know inoutcoverages like soft doubles or whatever

1:31:03yeah I mean the dolphins were able to maintain it year over year with Tyree Kill the Rams were able to maintain a lot of per out stuff that I think you're probably going to see Jackson Smith and Jaguar in the same type of situation next year we talked a bit about the Seahawks as it related to losing Kenneth Walker or we talked about the player they lost not so much how it relates to them the other couple of names that we had at running back if you're going to say there were other options for a team that really wanted a difference maker right but it's fascinating here and then I love Travis ETN if Travis ETN could have been on the chiefs early in his career it would have been absolute Christmas every day just so excited about that he has a big bounce back season last year but kind of under the hood it's not surprising at all that they want to go in the basal-tuton direction

1:32:03we talked a little bit about how good Kenneth Walker's peripherals were Travis ETN I think is a little bit disconcerting as the number two he's going into what seems like a very good situation there with the head coach who's been able to make Tyler Schuck and company viable but with ETN we have someone who actually was very good from the yards after contact perspective last year odd for a back whose back obviously if you get touched and then you make a speed play then you can end up with the good yards after contact depending on if there are a couple of those plays in the season but ETN one of these guys with a high stuff rate and is just very poor before contact that's also again not what you're looking for from a speed back profile they need to be able to make a decent chunk of their living

1:33:03and that's what we're looking for. So I'm going to ask that with the sort of under the radar signing of JK Dobbins that you mentioned and that one is interesting because the Broncos are evidently disappointed enough in our guy or certainly my guy RJ Harvey to reportedly have been interested in the best backs like that's heartbreaking to me. And that's because RJ Harvey's evasion rate last year good not great his after contact numbers certainly fine where he really struggled was before contact being able to avoid that initial wave and the contrast there he averages 1.1 yards before contact JK Dobbins 1.9 JK Dobbins average five yards per carry last

1:34:03season right and that's with great numbers both before and after contact we know he's not the same sort of big play back that he might have been before all of the injuries but he's still probably one of the top five backs in all of football in the tight area around the line of scrimmage his stuff rate last year just 14% I mean JK Dobbins is quietly and again you say quietly the whole problem is he's always hurt but he's one of the very best backs in the NFL it's problematic for Harvey it's problematic for the Broncos that he won't stay healthy but I mean certainly if you've got those two guys you're pretty well said if you assume that you're going to have them which at the running back position or any position is always tough. I mean they do they also spend around to draft capital I'm like Marvin Mims I never use him. Harvey could be a bit player a

1:35:03role player and in a Sean Peyton offense that does that to players um but Dobbins yeah it's important to remember back obviously not that player any more but remember back to what he was coming out of Ohio say the guy I know you really like this a prospect was a very fun prospect he was a really dynamic and then he just had injury after injury and so now we think about him as this like old banged up player but if you can get back healthy enough and you have that kind of a ceiling to your talent even if you're not hitting that ceiling probably still a better running back than RJ Harvey if RJ Harvey does have real limitations you know I mean it wouldn't be weird for for Jacob Adams to just be a better player so that's yeah concerning free agency reactions that's kind of where I'll stone those names at you it's just some little blurbs things that I've started to compile haven't gotten this piece done or anything but

1:36:03the ETN one as I worked through it I mean they finished 28th and scoring last year the Saints even though Killamore I think did fine right late in the season they had three games where they hit 24 more points in the final five weeks and I think they're very into the year that was three of only four games all year where they scored more than 21 points and again like I said they were still 28th in scoring with a few decent games late in the year a lot of the games that Chuck started they were scoring 17 points and stuff like that I'm worried that they're going to finish in the same range in scoring next year that there's not going to be a ton of touchdowns in this and a little bit of a veteran running back you know he's not getting any younger needs a lot of volume in a non elite offense there's going to be a lot of plays so he will probably get a lot of plays Killamore is an interesting coach as you referenced

1:37:03last year 1399 yards from Scrimmage for ETN that was the third time he hit at least that number first two years of his career was over 1400 in four years I mean obviously missed the rookie season with the last two years of his career and he's been a lot of years now 2022 through 2025 he's been a 1400 yard back three of the four years I mean I think he's a guy who can compile actually and do well and and put all that up but you're talking about a non elite offense it's what I wrote at the end of my little blurbous it's probably somewhat comparable to decent results like James Connor seasons and Arizona after he came up with a question the ceiling justifying the risk inherent in drafting him in an offense like that yeah the Dobbins one as you noted interesting what do you think about Malik Willis as it relates to HN we talked about Willis he's only made six career starts he's

1:38:04never heard more than 23 passes in a game he's going to do more than that as a clear starter I thought it was interesting that there was a $2.5 million which is a lot more palatable it's also a lot more where I thought he should be viewed as a guy who has never had the volume to justify being and every down sort of drop back quarterback it's it's basically the cost of living adjustment to Justin fields two year 40 million that he got to be the jets quarterback where it was creating this other tier of starting quarterback contract you don't have to pay 30 50 million whatever it is you're paying more than back up money but 22.5 million a year is not a massive number from Malik Willis his cap hit this year actually very low saw somebody joke about two was cap it versus Willis's on their 2026 books it's like 70 million for two

1:39:04and like 8 million for Willis I kind of like him there I'm not I was not very into Jalen Waddle because you already have the I think there's very few times I'm ever going to use this phrase but the best ability is availability phrase that people I mean Jalen Waddle misses games he misses time during games he misses routes that's a problem I was already kind of concerned about that now you bring in a quarterback who yeah he's going to throw more than 23 passes in some of these pushed down total pass volume it's going to negatively impact route volume and those things he's while probably will have a splash moments working off the run game and some of that stuff I think there could be potential for that dynamic efficiency duo a bit like DJ more in Justin Fields in that year in Chicago together but I don't I will not be drafting a lot of Jalen Waddle the reason I think Willis could be interesting to be interesting for fantasy first of all with the mobility for him

1:40:04the passing volume is going to be great enough to really have a huge shelling so it's more of a you know do we get a good enough cost on this but I think he can be really good for Devon Hian because I think his dynamism is probably most beneficial to his team's running back and I mean Hian's going to lose a massive amount of receiving volume this was a guy that was at the very top of the league in receiving volume when you had two who basically is just releasing the passes a lot of Devon Hian targets and now you're going to a mobile quarterback who's going to hold the ball and not throw the running backs a lot it's going to be a massive shift in his receiving volume but as long as that's factored into pricing which it may not be Devon Hian is an explosive playrunner and I think you may get that element of it really shining through if they design an interesting enough offense around Willis do you feel like Devon Hian could be a 1,500 yard rusher? Yeah there's no limit really for

1:41:06Hian he's that good but I think this more or less immense what we talked about on the show recently that if you end up with Malik Willis there it kills you and moves you into more of a third round type of back similar to what it did with Breeze Hall but you have two questions here right one is is there any way for this to work in reality for the dolphins and it doesn't seem to me like there probably is because you have a player who's still essentially a developmental quarter back certainly from a passing perspective who's being dropped into a catastrophically bad roster that just doesn't work right I mean you need to have elite quarterbacks in order to carry my amg is going to be dealing with the second question then would be like in the league Willis be exciting from a fantasy perspective

1:42:06and I don't think that we know the answer to that either because he's played in so few games but if you do look at a couple of these games the two sort of at the end of this most recent year and the two at the beginning of the previous season you do see both rushing EP numbers that are in that five range you also see a couple of massive overperformance games now anytime you're talking about tiny samples there's the danger of being like oh well if you just throw in a few games that are like this every time then you're going to be fine but it is the case that when we look at the rushing EP numbers for the quarterbacks a season ago we had Josh Allen at 5.7 Jane Daniels and Justin Fields just below that everyone else significantly below that of that group Fields perhaps surprisingly to all the people who don't like it not granted

1:43:06but Fields dark and Allen are the ones that also delivered some fantasy points over expectation it is kind of tricky for a QB who has this background almost has to have again EP numbers in that five point per game range and probably at least has the potential to be in that one and a half to three fantasy points over expected you're building in such a good baseline for him that when we talk about a fantasy perspective and I think it's especially fun if you do have a couple of you talked about what it does to his weapons in the case and made the case for Justin Fields last year with Wilson and Breeze Hall and I didn't really pan out but if you have some decent players around you just saw the offensive side again you overall roster catastrophically bad but that you're probably

1:44:06in this fantasy range just in terms of what the expected points end up being where you can be viable now again whether you really are someone in the fantasy is going to depend on the format and also depend ultimately at least a bit on that price what do you think about so I wasn't all that excited about Isaiah like Lee to the Giants I think you're going to get multiple tight ends I thought Theo Johnson was interesting last year and Jackson dark kind of liked him Johnson made some interesting plays like after the target efficiency downfield target volume guy is rookie season two years ago was very very low in targets per out it improved last year and he was making some decent plays some decent efficiency so I don't think Theo Johnson is just going to completely go away but obviously likely gets a pretty decent deal but it's not like a massive deal

1:45:06I think it was three years 40 million or something it's like a rotational move guide like they've done with the Ravens in John Harbaugh's new situation new team new offense naggy's offense whatever you want to call it so I don't think likely is the guy that I'm going to be going nuts about as it relates to that any of the other guys interesting to you I want to hear about two of the Vikings that you'd be kind of bullish on it it sounded like you were still somewhat bullish on and I think we just kind of move past I didn't get a chance to ask you about that because I think I'm pretty like skeptical about two going forward I think I'm pretty concerned about I feel like Mike McDaniel was about as good as he could have hoped for in terms of designing an offense around some of his limitations and as you move forward

1:46:06into an NFL that is new more more difficult challenges for quarterbacks you really got to be able to process it can't just be about accuracy and quick throwing you really got to be able to process you really got to be able to understand some of the pre and post snap stuff and then if you can't do that you would like to have some of the mobility and some of the other answers that he doesn't have and so now I'm like to me it feels like a long-term backup I do think he's a really accurate passer but do you think he could be good with the Falcons? How do you think that works? Who do you think starting week one? I think Pentax is probably still starting week one It sounded to me like most of this was about having a viable QB to start the season with Pentax not being ready and when you talk about a backup then to a probably moves at least toward the top of that list

1:47:06one of the things I think is so tricky with Tua is that the situation got so bad in some weird ways you have all of the stuff with Tyree Kill where he's probably the most dynamic player in the NFL in the last say six or seven years certainly someone like a Justin Jefferson might be better overall but he's also unreliable and you get that unreliability manifest as everyone kind of jockeying to be the person who throws the rest of the guys under the bus first so that they're not stuck under the bus themselves I think that even though we have certainly argued in favor with Mike McDaniel and think that it's going to be fantastic for the

1:48:06chargers that he's got to at least take some ownership of the different decisions they made including the decision to sign him to this contract that obviously didn't work out right he thought that he could win with him he thought that if we had to go to somebody else that it would risk what actually did happen I mean that's always the most important thing is that you are hoping that at the very least you avoid the worst case outcome but we continue to see with guys like DeShawn Watson and others that not only you not avoid the worst case scenario but that worst case scenario then does come with the contract ramifications the dolphins lose Tyree Kill you have the inconsistency capability or what have you as availability always cracks in the absence like everyone in the stadium is available then but that's not

1:49:06available are not going to be much for you I would think that's not the best capability that you could have there the dolphins last year ranked 26th in past blocking points earned according to SIS if you have you don't have Tyree Kill and you have an immobile quarter back that is not going to be great the interesting part about everyone souring to the extent that they did not that they go from him being an MVP candidate a few years ago early in the Daniel 10 year to where he's not in the top 15 QBs I mean that part I think is understandable and is fine he's definitely a backup feels a little bit odd and that the biggest question when it came down to the massive contract was whether or not he'd even be available it's the concussions it's not caliber of play

1:50:06when you think about the accuracy that JJ McCarthy had last year which was so far beyond the pale that it makes Zach Wilson look like a Hall of Famer to have the weapons that the Vikings have like a Tua seems like he would be the perfect fit if you're dealing with options that are like Derek Carr to a Kyler Murray because the connection now that we have is that there's it seems to me the assumption that Kyler Murray will be the quarter back next year for the Vikings let's going to work out much better than having JJ McCarthy it probably works out for the Vikings than having say a Sam Darnold but I mean Kyler Murray is bad enough that he was let go of by the Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray was bad enough that he could not find

1:51:06treatment bright and could not find Marvin Harrison we're going to be halfway in the next season and people are going to be like Kyler Murray can't find Justin Jefferson everyone knows that he can't see him I mean Tua would have had to release the ball to get it all the way out to Jordan Addison but as the play was starting but he would have known that the Jordan Addison was there and open I again you're going to get very different strengths and weaknesses and perhaps just being able to keep the play alive but it's weird to me that we are kind of back into the same conversation with Kyler Murray it's better than other things I mean yeah it's better than JJ McCarthy the only thing that having Kyler Murray as your QB would be it seems to me like Kyler Murray is really going for a low end result for the Vikings now again Kyler Murray can be bad and they're going to be a playoff team and exciting right you got Justin Jefferson you've got a good head coach you've got maybe the NFL's best defensive coordinator

1:52:06man you'd love to see them with like Daniel Jones-ish type of play oh Daniel Jones is actually good and in a good situation with good players a good coordinator now they just score every possession does it feel like Kyler Murray can deliver that? I mean the fact that like a Jacoby Brissette was night and day better and better in so many different ways than Kyler Murray and I'd have some concern if I'm Justin Jefferson that Kyler Murray is going to do with his career what he's done to Marvin Harrison it's going to be different because Justin Jefferson is not Marvin Harrison right but there are some real I mean if you're Justin Jefferson you want a pass-oriented Kyby even a mediocre one who is going to get you your stats then have to live with what Kyler Murray is going to do this is going to lead to frustration because the receivers are not going to get their stats I was just looking on Twitter to see if there was anything that we were missing

1:53:06I still call it Twitter to get annoyed you're supposed to call it X at this point or not beyond it because it's a crazy platform but it is where the vast majority of the information is still being broken there's a report that just came out I was trying to see if there's anything that came out that we should address before we get off there's a report that just came out that the box reverse course specifically using those terms reverse course and running back Sean Tucker 3.5 million but it gives them the ability to match any offer sheet from other teams they don't get any compensation if they decline to match but they did at least send some kind of a tender to update our previous discussion doesn't seem like it's not amazing because they get no compensation if they decline to match I mean they just give some a right to match but if some team wants them more than the box want them then he's going to be gone we know that he's only going to get

1:54:06three carries the game the three carries from the one-yard line fantastic but I don't see anything else major as we're recording right now but yeah if Kyler does go to the Vikings that will be a really interesting one to track I was hoping that they would get a clearer profile of the receivers to get in volume Gina Smith was one that got floated and I wasn't excited about he winds up with the Jets who are the other candidates here that I was oh I was except for Derek Carr Derek Carr was the I mean he would have been good for Justin Jefferson's stats yeah Derek Carr gotta play your cards a little bit better like then what's

1:55:06the best signing here as we leave the best signing that's a good one and you gotta give yours too the best signing so far in free agency for for fantasy footballer for well first just quickly probably people don't care maybe they, I mean it's interesting the traffic doffy trade you can use the money in other ways you get the 29th pick you get some other picks the chiefs have said that the position they don't think you should pay for his corner the Rams actually now I believe have a couple of the chiefs corners the Rams defense consistently going into some of the fantasy playoff based games their defense was a problem last year they're

1:56:06you could make the case that these moves have sort of separated the Rams out with the Seahawks as the two best teams in football do you like the chiefs sort of diversifying off of the risk of being all in on McDuffie I believe what was the biggest contract and then yeah, Jalen Watson signed with the Rams as well as you noted so now you have both the chiefs corners going to the Rams but yeah it creates it creates problems in their defense as well I mean they need to draft effectively in those things but yeah to be honest there's as much thought as you did the thing I would like to see we talked about this a little bit the difference between the chiefs defense which is very good and the elite defenses is that they

1:57:06don't create turnovers so I'm hoping that part of the redeployment of resources here is to create some more pass rush sorry I distracted you were going to give me your best but I was trying to look at the terms of the Kenneth Walker one because I do think the Kenneth Walker thing is like there's obvious ways that running back stuff can actually not fit and go south and he's over 25 and he's not always perfectly healthy he's had some little like growing things and different things that have come up and yeah I mean obviously it could end up not working that we've talked about for multiple years now that the chiefs offense is going to elevate the running back ability to get into space particularly around the line of scrimmage and that the chiefs needed to add someone

1:58:06who could make defenses pay one that opportunity was available to them and create at the next level and I think both for Kenneth Walker this is a perfect fit and for the chiefs this is the type of player whose limitations their quarterback and situation and the ways that defenses play them mitigate those limitations to some degree other than like the health stuff that I talked about but the limitations as far as running sideways a little bit or whatever some wasted movement and he is very much a um glasses have full glasses have empty running back where there's there's real strengths and there's real limitations and we are a system that mitigates those limitations and emphasizes or can use those strengths needs those strengths um because of that I just think it's like it doesn't mean he's going to be the best

1:59:06running back in the NFL but I think it's just the best fit I really loved it when I always like when we get the players yeah we are fantasy analysts I want to see I want to see offense I want to see stats you know we always get those things you guys don't even like football if you don't love defensive battles like no I want to see guys in situations in schemes that are maximizing their talent and their ability to the best they can be uh so that everyone thinks they're way more than they are than me and you have to come on here and be like yeah that guy's overvalued now like that's that's what I'd love to see in the NFL because it was such a perfect fit for what he is and what his limitations are as a player he couldn't have landed in a better spot for him uh and for what it means for the chiefs and and how it can open up different things in their offense I don't think it could be a better a better decision for them as far as what their options were available I mean I probably would have preferred them to make the breeze halls trade

2:00:06still last year I still think he's probably a little bit better and more reliable and and something I would be more uh willing to say what his impact on the chiefs offense going back the other direction would be as strong because I do think that's a little bit of the concern with walkers like can he stay healthy enough does he do enough right when it's all said and done to have that impact back on the rest of the chiefs roster on their offense I think probably it won't just be that the chiefs are elevating him but he's able to add to it as well but regardless I think it's going to be a good fit and I think he's going to produce and you know it'll be interesting to to the degree that people probably think he's better than he actually is at this point next year as sort of the the way that I'm saying as long as he stays healthy uh and I think that could be very positive for everyone in the offense it'd be very positive for like a Xavier worthy to to finally start to do some some big stuff at age 22 because again this guy's still super super young

2:01:06Xavier worthy um I guess he'll be age 23 now but he's still 22 right now he's starting to 23 in April like you still have some young players like that with some ceiling you still have a sheet rice you still have you bring back Travis Kelsey who you know last year was left alone enough that he had some some numbers at times his targets per out fell way down but his efficiency per target went up because he was just a secondary receiver when he was left alone throw the ball to him when he's wide open you're probably getting more of that right he's still able to catch the ball he's still a skilled football player certainly at his age so you have a more dynamic running back now you can free up some coverage space for other guys that are maybe limited like Kelsey at this age or like Xavier worthy that they can then use what skills they have to produce I mean I think it just elevates the whole offense I'm going to go with the Homer pick of Kenneth Walker to the Chiefs as well

2:02:06and certainly we've been critical of some of the Chiefs moves at times you look at how you deploy your resources and we know that receivers are going to be more valuable than running backs but you also want to pick your moments in the different markets and you know that in free agency wide receivers are going to be priced if you can get one of the NFL's best backs even at a contract that for a back is pretty healthy then I think that you want to do that and then you can use your picks on more valuable positions the Chiefs will probably go pretty defense heavy again in the draft after losing some of their key pieces that McDuffy trade and what have you it's certainly possible though that they would pick a receiver with one of those first two picks and retain Kelsey but still go with someone like Ely Stowers around pick 40 the pick they have there when you think about Kenneth Walker you think of the fantasy upside then he caught more than four passes per game in 2024

2:03:06if they use him like that it's going to be absolutely off to the racism fantasy and I did get the numbers three years 45 million is sort of I think the max value I've seen 4305 base so there's like probably 2 million incentives there approximately 14.35 million as the annual number which the significance of it is that it becomes the largest free agent contract for a running back in NFL history because the other really big ones that we got in that stretch were all extensions like Todd Gurley and those like you had to pay your guy to retain him and yet I think 3 million per year is not a lot of money to pay a guy that could redefine your offense in certain ways in a league where the cap is like 300 million now and it was like 200 million like five years ago the cap is not just rising every year it's gone up like 50% in like half a decade I don't think people realize that there's contracts

2:04:08as part of why we're getting like shorter and shorter contracts now there's contracts that are in the fourth year of a four year contract that we're signed at a time when the cap was like so like 100 million dollars less almost and so you're yeah I mean 14 million a year yeah it's a non premium position but like that's a raw figure that is not that hard to justify 28.7 guaranteed it's about the 14 over the first two years suggested if they needed to cut him after 2027 probably not a lot of dead money they probably wouldn't be on the hook for the full 45 they'd probably pay 35 over two years or whatever I mean you take that I think you absolutely take that like you said it's it's a lot for a running back and it when you know the different markets we talked about how you have to overpay for a receiver in free agency relative to if you can hit on one on the draft or if you can trade from one that you know is good and then you pay him an extension or something you hit on one on the draft you develop him you're underpaying it

2:05:09relative to out pierces making 30 million a year 28.5 or whatever we said we're talking about Ken Walker making half of that per year because in the at the positions that you don't have to pay as much the non premium positions then go out and pay the top dollar in free agency because again you're going to be paying half of the high end of the market and as Ken Walker a more impactful player for the chiefs next year then I'll appears for the cults I think you can argue that I understand that wider receivers are way more important I think you can argue that Ken Walker a healthy Ken Walker even though he's a running back even though you know positional value is what it is and matters and I know that there's some people that are very extreme on the running backs don't matter side of scale that would be laughing at me for even suggesting this but I don't think Alec Pierce is that clearly a difference making wider receiver again really unimpressive numbers for most of his

2:06:09prospect profile in first two years and in the last two years he's a really a high yards per target efficiency guy the comparable is like a Gabe Davis where like you were really really good per target efficiency but what else do you have now people are like Alec Pierce is a really good blocker and all of these things but yeah I bring up Gabe Davis he obviously signed the big free agent contract with the Jags and I got really excited about that at the time was like hey, it's a real player he's an efficient player this sat in the other thing in a new office the efficiency went completely gone I mean he's very... Kenny Collins is another name that comes to mind like when you pay these vertical down-fueled efficiency players in free agency they've typically not worked Pierce obviously sticking with the same team I would expect him to continue to be good it's a sample size of two names that I just gave that are concerns but yeah just to sort of defend my point that a running back might be more valuable than the most expensive wide receiver contract

2:07:09in free agency here I mean I think there's real downside concern to the Pierce contract that's like the really low end outcome I don't think Colts fan should be like oh my god he's saying he's gonna be the next Gabe Davis or Kenny Gollett I'm not saying that I'm just saying like we just talk about the upside when a guy signs a $30 million deal per year deal that it's just yeah he's gonna be a $30 million per year receiver he's got to justify the contract we just saw get signed let's all talk about how great he is and I do think there's real risk and concern there that he's more just a role player pushed up by market forces and if that's the case I think you can make a case that going out and getting a Ken Walker at the price you paid even if it was the largest for running back contract in free agent history it's a massively different use of resources because of what the running back position is in free agency what the contracts actually are on that stage is emphasized again by the fact that Breeze Hall franchise tag is gonna make 14.3 million approximately right

2:08:09and so you can argue with the running back position whether the control ability is valuable to you or not but you're talking about a one-year deal if they're going to keep him beyond that it's most likely to be even more expensive to them now again you mentioned we would both prefer to have Breeze Hall but probably only by a relatively small margin so again in terms of how the markets work it's just such a fantastic deal and what everyone was saying when they didn't make the trade was that Hall was gonna be a free agent that was a counter that I got some of the listeners pushed back on and they were right about he was gonna be a free agent I was thinking well you're gonna probably be able to tag him or retain him in one way or another but the fact that the Jets tagged him suggests that and the chiefs were able to sign Walker for 14.3 million per year with really probably only two years guaranteed because it's 28.7 total guaranteed money suggests to me that Hall wanted a little bit more in a longer term deal as far as the AAV

2:09:09and they kind of were left no option other than to tag him maybe that's not right maybe they prefer to tag him to only have to guarantee the one year but if you could lock him up for two years at that same number rather than start the escalation of the contract of the tag element of it I think you may just prefer to do that from the team perspective so my point is if the chiefs had traded for Hall they maybe would have had to pay him a little bit more than this and given up the third round pick so maybe in some respects they're like hey if you only think Walker is a little bit worse we saved our draft capital and we signed a somewhat comparable player to a little bit of a better deal to what we would have had to pay Hall maybe the chiefs feel like they were right in all of this in the end that last year wasn't their year to really go for it with the Hall deal and they were still able to get this guy in free agency rather than trade capital for him in season there's a probably an argument for that and in any way

2:10:09as far as the free agency deals go that has been sort of the long term take away from me in terms of team building premium positions where you got to pay a ton of free agency to come out winning in free agency you really want to be able to hit those in the draft you want to draft those with your first round picks or if you trade form yeah go go trade for those premium positions free agency go pay for the best top market deals at the non premium positions go sign a safety for $12 million go sign maybe an off-ball linebacker or something if he's a legit player because the scales for those positions are lower go sign a good tight end or something back I'm actually pretty intrigued by those moves even when they're really expensive for the position as far as cap allocation goes and the fact that they can still be players that add value on the field they're still good football players there's good linebackers that make a difference there's good running backs that make a difference to teams

2:11:09so yeah I think that's a good pick from both of us as far as the best free agent contract is here and then it sounds like if he hits his escalators the washed up 37-year-old Travis Kelsey could still end up being more expensive the kind of walker was to sort of again illustrate the value they're running back markets they're like we don't even know if we want him back but we kind of have to I mean these Taylor Swift's husband at all we kind of have to pay whatever the market was willing to pay him and they're like I mean I was making the walker versus Pierce comparison and saying walkers half the price per year and his walker bigger impact and that's questionable I definitely want walker over Travis Kelsey at this point of their careers for the same money we can just hope that the chiefs have their offense design next year in such a way that Travis Kelsey

2:12:09and Xavier Worthy are never out that'll do it for today's episode stealing bananas I wish I would say go with me it's Ben Gretz you can get the field tipper's pieces and the upcoming free agent reactions over there at stealing signals again that's Ben Gretz.substac.com we'll have to have you guys over at Rotoviz I believe volume two of the guide some Blair and Bruce on back we love you guys talk to you soon has the news been getting you down I'm Megan McCartle and I'm here to help I'm the host of a news show from reasonably optimistic

2:13:09and it's an antidote to the pessimism that's riddling America right now every Wednesday I'm going to talk to people who see a path forward does seem to me that there is some awakening of a desire to act together to solve problems where they are you know I am a believer in America that's worth fighting for join me Wednesdays on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts