The Nancy Guthrie Investigation — What the Silence Is Actually Telling Us

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2:03Let's move over to another case that obviously we've been talking about quite a bit. There's not a ton of things that are new in this, but there's still a lot of questions that are coming in. We are damn near 50 days now, no suspect name of the Nancy Guthrie disappearance. No arrests. The doorbell footage of the masked man at her front door is still the only image investigators have publicly released. New camera footage recovered, apparently this week, from her property, apparently shows not much. Listeners, the guys have been sending in questions about this all week, so you want to try and get to some of those. If you got some in the live while we're doing this, please drop them and we will try to get to them. If there's anything that stands out, you want to jump in here that you're seeing in the comments. We'll read them very well because they're over there. I got them right next to me too. You got them too. Okay. Let's start with this first one, because it's driving me insane investigators are now specifically asking neighbors about January 11th and January 24th, both weekends, both weeks before she was taken.

3:05Robin, if the FBI is zeroing in on those specific dates, what does that tell you about what they think happened? Because that sounds like they're building a surveillance timeline on a suspect. What do you make that they're zeroing in at least asking questions of residents of specific dates? Yeah. I literally covered this this morning, so I've been doing even more research, you know, me and my crazy research. So in, here's the numbers, in roughly 70 to 80% of home invasion cases, the residents have been staked out in advance. And typically what they're staking out is security systems. Okay. So let's do our thought experiment. In those cases where they got new still images of that video, I think of that same person it looks like just minus the gun and the holster on those dates, again, looking very casual, front door, moving around, no sense of urgency, and most notably, no reaction. So I said to myself, place myself in a situation, if anyone else that's listening to an inwatching,

4:11if you have a ring cam or an S cam or something, what typically happens is someone's on your front step? It goes off. You hear the chime inside. And when you hear that, what you'd expect to see, because we have kids that run across our driveway in the middle of the night or something like that, they're playing, and when they hear it, you see a reaction. When we have an animal in my driveway that triggers it, they stop and they hear a reaction. So what we didn't see from this guy was a reaction to a chime, something going off. So what perpetrators will do is they're going to stake out locations and tests for security systems. So I think they are then zeroing in on recamiston in neighborhood because his behavior says he's done this before. A lot of people have said it looks like he's done it before. As anyone else seen behavior like this on the ring cams, on the Ness cams, anywhere within like one to 300 mile radius, because this is going to be a repeated pattern of them testiness. It happens all time. The other thing too, we only know what we're being presented in the public.

5:12And so all my observations on my theories, whether it was targeted for Nancy or targeted for something, an object in that house, comes from what's being presented to the audience, you know, us in general public. But when you analyze everything, typically when you're staking out and testing, pre-entry testing, pre-all these things, it looks like they're testing location. If it's targeted for robbery, they test locations. If it's targeted for individual, they're staking out individuals. Now, she was definitely doing a pattern. She did go to dinner at her daughter's and son-in-law's house every Saturday. So that is very, very consistent. Are you for burglars? I know some people have said why not go and go into this house of its burglary when she wasn't home and at these things. The stats on this say they will, even though the house might be empty during the day when she's out at a family of friends, if it's daylight during that time period, they're always,

6:16not always typically burglars, about 80% of time are going to go at late hours after night when they're short of not being observed by neighbors, by other ring cams, things like that. That pattern, if that's what you're doing, and the other thing too, that was a new kind of new that we haven't talked about too much, and that is a share of who went to a crazy share of who's now under trying to get recalled. And you did a good piece on Subsec on that, the likelihood is a little slow. It's so slim, yeah. But I analyzed his statement because we're, his statement about, I don't, I didn't have the exact language, but I looked it up. The statement about saying for the public to be on alert that there's still a threat out there. His actual language he used was language that used if they suspect it as a burglary, not as an abduction. I compared it to Elizabeth Smart's things. There was like three or four other cases where I looked at a share of language where they put a warning out to the public.

7:16His was not congruent with the language put out if he believes it was an abduction. So 80%. And so again, I'm just looking at data points of what we're looking at, which is interesting. And that kind of leads us to the next question. The sheriff had said that the suspect could absolutely strike again. And then his own department puts out a statement saying there's no updated public safety risk in the same week. Context is important. And I think because we go into the statement of he could absolutely strike again, that's going to be colored by what you view, what each individual views as the goal of this person, porch guy, was he there to abduct? If you're seeing that and you think, oh, he was there to abduct her, he could absolutely strike again. You're taking that and going, oh, he could absolutely kidnap someone again and take them. Or he could absolutely go burglary somebody's home and hope to God that it doesn't turn out again where somebody has to go missing.

8:20With that being said, if someone, if this is their lifestyle, if this is their MO, this is how they provide in in their own minds for their family or themselves by, if it is a burglar stealing, and then something happened and they had to get rid of the evidence being Nancy, what are the, I don't know, there are odds or stats on this, but what do you think about the idea that they're, they might be back out there burglarizing homes again. I mean, just because this one went wrong and it hasn't been solved and maybe the body is gone and they'll never be found. Does that make them take a step back and go, I'm done burglarizing homes. That one really got me and we had to get rid of a body. When I'm going to do anymore, I'm going to go work at the pomada. I don't think that that is necessarily how that sort of brain functions, but what do you think the stats are, the odds are that this person, if this was a burglary gone wrong

9:21and Nancy somehow got mixed into it, Nancy's gone now that they're not already back out there doing their burglar thing. It really depends on what the intent was. If their intent to burglarize was because they have a certain need, they need to satisfy their, in their lives for some monetary gain for something and that needs been met, then there's no need to burglarize again and the risk outweighed the reward. Remember, fears are greatest motivator and if they fear more than they crave, then they're not going to do it anytime soon, depending if they're addicted to it or not, because that plays into it as well, obviously, and just think of in terms of, because you brought it up in the word, the sheriff did about threats and having abductions again. If she was a targeted abduction for Nancy herself, well, there's no other Nancy's out there, so where's the threat? If it was for retribution against Nancy or Savannah in some way and she's out of the picture, so where's the threat? Again, no leakage in any other ways

10:21on that. So if we have a targeted burglary, could this individual potentially definitely a burglar again because they have in the past? Yes, and also think about this too. If it was targeted for abduction of Nancy, particularly, why do you look so fluid like he's done this before? There's only one Nancy. The things kind of fall apart in these things, again, not conclusive, but you just look at the data that we're seeing. That's why the language, the behaviors, again, I am completely on board with that house was targeted for something inside. Just what that is is whether it's biological human being or an object is what the debate is up for, but I really don't think it matters at this point. We still need to find both. I'm still optimistic on this and believe it or not, just because they're now able to check a lot of other things for behaviors that match us because if we go along the theory that he's done this before, there's going to be other people that are checking their cameras and saying, again, within a radius of a couple hundred miles, I would think you're going to

11:26get something. As Jennifer Kaufend after put up two, their signs that they put up the billboards go all the way to Houston as well. I think that circle that they're looking at is pretty large, because again, this is a community with really spread out houses. There was, she brought up, there was one other abduction in that area that was north of it, I thought. I guess my question on the billboards is this, because Houston's a long ways away from what she was. What sort of thinking goes into that choice to buy billboards? I mean, the FBI costs money to buy billboards. You know, you don't bet, I just don't go to the billboard company. Hey, where the FBI, we'd like to take some billboards out here. You go, they're free. No, it costs thousands of dollars for a billboard. There's a lot of money that's coming out of somebody's budget to put these things up, especially in a city like Houston. They're going to be very expensive. They're hitting a lot of eyeballs. You're talking sometimes tens of thousands of dollars for a single billboard. So who's making the choice as to where these billboards go? And why is there some information on

12:32the back end here? Because we've been talking about Houston being very heavily bombarded with these billboards other than it has a fairly similar demographic makeup of population as to where Nancy is at. Why Houston? Is there something back behind the scenes that the FBI is basing this on? Or or is it is it clout? Is it let's we don't have anything. So we want, you know, the public to be on our side. So let's make it really look like we're really involved in this and then we don't have anything to go on. So all we can do is kind of put this out there not to say that they're not working this. But when you don't have anything and you want the public trust on you, you know, you're going to have to grandstand a little bit and let them see we're caring. We're caring at the very least we're asking for your help with all these billboards. I mean, what is the thought process there that that Houston is lined with Nancy Guthrie billboards? Boy, you'd really love to think that law enforcement is putting all the thought that you just did into it, aren't you? You know, but

13:36having been in it for so long, do they get a good deal? Yeah, you know, me, I'm the glass hat full of most things I will see. But when it comes to decision-making processes, both of individual morons like this guy that broke into the house and did whatever he did inside Nancy's house or law enforcement at large, I tend to go on, people tend to take the easiest answer first. And so I'm on the fact that, you know, well, again, thought I have no idea. They could have been completely strategic in what they're doing and they had a great team come together and said, here's the most effective place to put this together. Or you had someone on the inside, hey, we got to get a lot of bank for a buck. What's the greatest advertising company we could have to get as much billboards up for the cheapest price we can? That's going to give us a positive image in the public that we're doing something. I've seen that second answer more than I've ever seen the first answer. Because so then you got to look at reps. So let's look at this, Tony, let's look at reps. How often has this department or law enforcement in general in this area ever

14:40put up billboards for a missing person? If they don't have a rep, you know, like repetitions having done it before and this is their first rep, they're going to learn on this one if it was effective or not effective and it's the first time they're doing it, they're going to go, what's the biggest bank for our buck for investing in this kind of advertising and marketing? Yeah. And why is the picture of Nancy on the billboard? I mean, we know what Nancy looks like. Why is the perpetrator not up there? Why don't we have a close-up of what we have? I know there's like not great image. There is a close-up with a mass. You can see why the hell is him and his image not on the billboard? I mean, again, it kind of goes back to the planning of this billboard. Was that one? Yeah. I mean, who made the decision of putting Nancy's face on the billboard? Nancy's missing. I mean, I get it like when a missing person's case and this kind of is that, but it's more so let's figure out the perpetrator at this point. So these billboards went out. Why are we not looking for that? Well, and I get it maybe just because, you know, it grabs your attention, you know, because you see Nancy Guthrie and so it might be recognition. It's kind of like, you

15:43know, throwing the word sex up and then saying, you know, then by actually putting the advertising with it. Do that. Put the perpetrator's name up, put perpetrator, Nancy Guthrie in one side and just the word sex and then the word and then the iphone number and see what happens. Like suddenly they get flooded with more tips. Yeah, I'm, you know, given given the pattern behavior we saw, I have seen so far though, with messaging, since billboards are another form of messaging, I'm tend to be a little cynical on the thought process that we're not. Yeah, that's a good one right there. That's a very good one right there. But again, the choice and the ability to control where they go. That's always, I mean, you know, we're, how, I mean, and I apologize, I normally look everything up. I have not looked up ever since cough and deferred brought up the billboard issue. I hadn't looked up how billboards location are doing. I mean, I've seen, you know, missing people billboards before. That's not really a new thing. I guess the curiosity for me is the choosing of the spot locations. Yeah, I'm like, why? And they're not cheap. And it's not, and then the billboard

16:44companies don't do this for free. So yeah, I just, that I'm curious. I love to know the top person. So here's another level of, I love doing the, you know, how to, how to sausage is made kind of moments behind the scenes. And so billboards aren't cheap. Okay. So maybe, you know, my favorite word maybe. So in a world where social media, marketing and selling ad space as, as all our streaming services are more and more inundated with ad space, you know, things like billboards are getting pushed to the way side a little bit more. And so there's also a potentiality that a billboard company that has seen a drop in revenue might use this as a bolster to say, hey, look at our billboards up here on to other potential marketers saying, listen, you know, we'll give, we'll give the law enforcement guys a break so people can see how affected the billboards are as well. Yeah, I mean, I'm guessing they probably got a good price. I bought billboards before. When I own an ad agency. And I know how the process works. They're not cheap. I bought them for the

17:47government before I as an ad agency. More data points on time. Yeah. And yeah, I mean, I've worked, I think it actually was the FBI was doing some work for a long time ago. It was a recruitment campaign. If I remember right, this was long time ago. And I mean, you get like a lower rate sometimes, you know, when it's something of that nature, almost like political rate, but yeah, but it's still they don't do it for free. And a good point there too. Someone might have sponsored them, you know, by creative on geography. Maybe how? I mean, it's the FBI's billboard. I don't see the I don't even I don't even know the path to how that would even work. I mean, I mean, it was the FBI's bill. I don't know. I mean, I guess anything is possible because the FBI does not accept charity in that way. I mean, I remember during 9-11 in New York, people wanted to donate even just food, water, sandwiches to us. I mean, like we didn't have cell phones during 9-11. And so people wanted to donate like cell service and cell phones so we could use them during the

18:50course of investigation. We turned it all down NYPD took it all. But we had to turn everything down. We weren't allowed to take anything. Oh, can we look at it as a bribe? I mean, and if someone had I mean, like there are certainly good hearted, wonderful people who just want to help. And here, take what I got. You guys deserve it. You need it. But then you can also have nefarious people using that as an end to I there. I saw the locally here. Currently, the TSA is it's a nightmare in most places. And I saw our local airport here. There was actually and then I don't know what the status of this is, but they were asking for donations to help feed the TSA people. Sounds lovely, but it's actually against the law to to give donations even in this sense to especially for someone in that sort of capacity. You know, because it could be it could be used as a bribe for the wrong people in the wrong place. I know we're going to far down a rabbit hole in this one. But again, 9-11 in New York City, they would actually have the phase that people

19:54would set up for law enforcement. And everyone at every single agency in the world that was part of part of 9-11 in New York City went through these buffet. They're beautiful set up by Salvation Army and everything. Everyone except us. You got to stand outside watching everyone get fed as we were just covered and muck. Yeah. That's good stuff. That's interesting. Yeah. So that's yeah, obviously not a whole lot new here on this case. All right. Still far more questions than answers. You know, here's the whole movement though. I think I think the I think them recam have seen on those dates and checking ring cams for those dates and stuff. I think that's an interesting movement. It is your thoughts in the comments section on Substack in YouTube. Be sure to weigh in and we'll continue the conversation over there. Want more on this case and others? Then press subscribe now and don't miss a moment of true crime coverage from Tony Brusky and the Hidden Killers podcast. Some days you want a little extra oomph to your usual look,

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