Should people be allowed to bet on war?

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to make trades against future events - which can range from when the US and Iran might sign a permanent peace deal and sports results, to whether a politician will mention a certain phrase in a speech. These sites have surged in popularity over the past year, hosting more than $44 billion in trades.

But they bring up all sorts of ethical questions. Not just war profiteering, but also insider trading. Recently a US soldier was arrested for allegedly using classified information to place bets on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro - before it happened. Reports say he won more than $400,000 from these bets.

And there are dozens of lawsuits at the US state level trying to figure out how to regulate these platforms. Minnesota has just become the first state to ban prediction markets.

So, why are people betting on things like the weather, elections and global conflicts - and should it be allowed? The BBC’s Madeline Gerber, who’s based in Washington explains.

Instagram: @bbcwhatintheworld Email: [email protected] WhatsApp: +44 330 12 33 22 6 Presenter: Hannah Gelbart Producers: Julia Ross-Roy, Santiago Vanegas Maldonado and Chelsea Coates Video producer: Baldeep Chahal Editor: Verity Wilde