Prop Points | September 10, 2026

0:00This is prop points on Vsyn, these sports betting network. Now here's your host, the guru himself, John Hansen. Good afternoon, what's going on? Welcome to a Thursday edition of prop points here on Vsyn. I'm John Hansen of fantasypoints.com. The program is, as always, produced by Mr. Michael Cohen, another big program for forthcoming. Obviously, takeaways from last night's game. It was pretty underwhelming. We'll break it down. We'll talk injuries as well, critical updates on Samuel Darnold and Juan Arthur Brown, aka, aka Brown. We'll also peep out the injury report that first came up for the Sunday games. And not the Monday games yet, the Sunday games only. We'll take a look at the notable statuses in terms of DNP, did not practice, and all that good stuff.

1:00Then we'll get right into the data for the Rams, 49ers at Rams over there in Australia. Plenty of data points here. And thank God, after last night, we're going to get Kyle Shanahan against Sean McVeigh. It is a little weird that it's across the world. But watching that game last night, I was certainly pining for those two dudes and their elite offenses. Speaking of elite, the Grindr Tom Braille joins us per usual on a game day. We are in agreement on one prop for tonight's game for sure. And as we know, that's about 70% when the Grindr and I agree on props. And speaking of props, I will pop out my top props for 49ers Rams at the end of the program, along with a Thursday night special. Make sure you download the prop points podcast, Apple Spotify, or wherever you get your pods. Well, it wasn't a very good night, but just so you know,

2:01if you've never watched this show, I am a process guy, you know, a more of an NFL guy, breaking it all down. So I approached these games and these props basically from a football perspective first and foremost. And you know, for example, the Ramondra Stevenson love, we just missed it 57.5, but all of my points of contention held up. I did, we put out a video where I'm like, he's going to get 15, go get 20. If the game is close, dude got 18. You got to give credit to Seattle's defense. They were unbelievable. No doubt about it. Ramondra did look a little sluggish, but then he started getting going a little bit. Some of the analysis points that I pointed out did did kind of play out. We did win the one of the leans on the receiving, but the offensive line wasn't that great. I saw a stat where I can't be true. I mean, the Ramondra had like literally like one yard blocked the whole game

3:01before contact. Like that's pretty crazy. I don't know if that's accurate or not, but it was a tough go for Ramondra. Obviously it was a tough go for Drake May. By the way, not for nothing, but if Drake May doesn't throw that egregious touchdown, we're likely going to overtime. And I would argue that Ramondra would have hit. Can't complain though. It was four quarters and we just missed it by what? Like six yards. What else happened here in this game? Well, obviously, one or the brown. We'll talk about that. We also just missed the, the special, I believe. Well, actually, no. I was thinking about another play I had before he got hurt was we just missed a lean. That he may have hit if he didn't get hurt. It was like 27 and a half yards in the first half, 28 and a half something like that. And he got 26 and looked the lone win. I mean, barely it's unbelievable. We were correct. The grinder was on this as well. Tom Braley. We were correct that to Mario Douglas would get targets.

4:01He did. He tied for the lead team in targets. And we did get this right. But again, it's like pulling teeth over here. Dude is average average four yards per reception. You feel pretty good in a fantasy world. If you have Ramondra, but it's pretty clear they need the juice of Trevian Henderson. And Drake May needs to, I don't know, go back to the drawing board. It's pretty fair. Based on the Super Bowl and this here game to question Drake May going forward. You know, if you draft a Malik Willis, you might be starting Malik Willis here and there over a Drake May. If May continues this trend and if the matchup is tougher on going forward and all that. But we all know that Drake May and the Patriots had a very good schedule last year. Obviously the other problem at last night's game in addition to being, you know, Super Bowl rematch, you know, great defense involved. We lost on one side, the number one receiver. Hey, I could argue too that the Ramondra prop would have hit if AJ Brown was out there the whole game.

5:05I think he would have been, you know, Brown would have started making a few more plays. The offense would have moved the ball a little bit better and all that. And that probably would have helped out Ramondra, but we also had no idea that Sam Darnold would go down. Not that we were in on anything. We did lean AJ Barnard. That didn't work out. J.S.N. was unbelievable though. Just incredible 11 targets eight grabs for 122. I ended up drafting J.S.N. all over the place left and right. Ironically, even though Drake May wasn't on my target list, I actually drafted Drake May quite a bit. And that didn't go well, but every time I did, it seems like I also drafted Jackson Smith and Jigba. Yeah, not much else to take out of the game other than our guide Jadarian Price. Now, he only got the 10 carers, but man, he looked good. So I feel pretty good about my rookie of the year pick in the preseason for Jadarian Price. I also feel pretty good about the prop that I had with Jadarian.

6:05And I think it was like 745 or 49.5 yards. I feel pretty good due to average 5.2 yards per carry. George Alani was a little bit more involved in the running game than we thought. Thank God it into the George Alani receiving prop. That looked pretty good, but again, disrupted when you get a quarterback change in the game. Not the greatest start, but I do think that, you know, these, this game tonight, by the way, last time the Niners and Rams played on a nationally televised standalone game. It was Thursday night football fairly early in the season last year. And we were undefeated on those props. I think it was 7 and 0. Maybe even been 8 and 0. So we're, we're feeling good. I am about tonight's game. Otherwise, let's take a look. AJ Brown again could be a high ankle sprain. That is very problematic. I do wonder if the Patriots regret moving on from K-Shaw and booty. And it's Matt Collins time, baby. If AJ Brown is out, I think I might just maybe for spite because as I always call him,

7:09he's annoyingly good. He's not a guy that we're going to kind of hang our hat on and play the props. Although we did a couple of times last year and they hit. I may just go over on Matt Collins every week because this guy is just, he just runs like eight yards turns around and there's the ball. Mr. Zone beater and then Sammy Dornold undergoing an MRI on the hip this morning. The team doctors are still reviewing it, but it did look like per all the reports and the reporting that he quote unquote dodged a bullet. Brock Bowers though did not. This was this really set shock waves throughout the fantasy and betting industry. If you will, the community just I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it where you have a high end player like this. Presumably healthy, coming off an injury, looking at a big contract by the way, new offensive coordinator who's actually good and maybe at least a slight upgrade. A quarterback probably more than slight and well, it's all kind of going to be a moot point early in the season as Brock Bowers expected to miss a game or two.

8:13George Kille removed from the injury report. He will play tonight against LA, which is very, very good news. Now let's take a look. Some of the more notable injuries here for the Sunday games bears at Panthers, Roma Dunes, a that leg injury suffered about a week ago. That's a little concerning Aussie, Trapillo, who is technically there left tackle, but he's hurt, but you know, he's coming back a little quicker than people think. So that's a good sign. He may not play this week for the Panthers. Jonathan Brooks still limited still a little bit of soreness there, lower body leg soreness. So that's not great. Bill's Texans, nothing of note here, type practice. Not sure what's up with that. These Norealian Saints, Lions, nothing big going on here. I don't think you should be starting out of the Camara, who's limited in practice. And Oscar Delp, the rookie out of Georgia, has been out of practice still early in the week. But you want Johnson looking good, by the way, in that game.

9:15Nothing of note for the Detroit Lions, Browns Jaguars will be checking in on a couple of injuries. Malik Collins limited. So I would imagine he'd go for the Browns on that D line and Tevin Jenkins, the guard limited. He'll probably go. I don't really feel warm and fuzzy about Quinch on Judkins, by the way. Jags, what are we out here? Oh, Browns and Jags. Yeah, LaQuin Allen did not practice. So that could bowed well for Baytial Tutan. Jacobi Myers is limited. Bucks, Bengals, Ameka Obuka did have a full practice. Jalen McMillan is still a little limited. Sean Tucker, the number three running back did not did not practice. And Rubin Bain, he looks like he's going to be a player based on the preseason out of the U. He's been limited. Bengals, Jamar Chase, full practice. That's good to Higginsville practice. Falcon Steelers for the Falcons, Michael Pentax, full practice. But it's going to be two of, but maybe it's Pentax next week. Zachariah Branch, the rookie I do like him long term. He's been limited for the Steelers, the Joey Porter contract situation, hold out, hold in, whatever you want to call it.

10:21Jet's Titans, good news for Breeze Hall with that groin, full practice. So that is good. Kenyne Sadeek, limited. No one's starting Kenyne Sadeek in week one. Ravens, cold, safe. Flowers been limited. Obviously, Alec Pierce has been limited. Cargs, Jags, Jeremiah, love, limited. Josh Shwett out of practice. We'll see what's up with that. Chargers, Khalil Mac out of practice. We'll check in on that. Commanders, Eagles, Jacori Kroski, Merritt, limited. Kalevan Chase on. That's not good. Jonathan Grinard for the Philly Birds. Obviously Brock Bowers for the dolphins, Packers, Vikings, nothing of note there. And Malik neighbors, a full practice. I think we're all caught up. We'll talk data points on the other side. But first, if you think you're better than the experts, now is your chance to prove it. Edgeboost Average Joe Contest puts you in the same pick and format as a circuit Friday football invitational. The one the pros plays top average Joe earns a spot in next year's circuit invitational field free to play edge boost offering its customers a $1,000 deposit.

11:25If you finish first for the weekend, if you don't have an edge boost account, you can sign up at edge boost.io with the promo code V. Make sure your account is funded with at least a hundred bucks. Ender the contest today at V. S. dot com slash Joe data points coming at you next for tonight's game on prop points. You're watching prop points with the guru John Hansen on V. S. Welcome back to this Thursday edition of prop points here on V. S. I'm John Hansen of fantasy points dot com not off to the greatest start missed out on two and one last night with

12:26the Ramanjray coming five six yards short but buck up a little camper because the Rams and the 49th. Thank God for the galics. The shana hands and the McVeys will actually get some offensive production. Although it is all the way across the world. So that is a little weird, especially with LA. I mean, I think they just landed. No, I'm kidding there, but obviously we all know that situation. But as I mentioned last year or last segment. Last year in this actual matchup on a Thursday and a football game. We did go seven and oh and we actually hit the special. Jake Tonjes anytime touchdown at plus four hundred. So extremely profitable last year in this matchup. And I have four props that I'm going to officially make here to try and you know, beef up that record right out of the gate along with a couple of leans. Let's take a look at the quarterbacks here Brock Purdy.

13:26The total here is 242.5 that is minus 112 1.5 passing touchdowns at plus 101. I and T I did actually want to go with the with an interception. But the odds are so poor and minus 154. Why? Because Brock Purdy the Rams deployed cover three and cover four at a 57% clip in two games against the Irish last year. Brock Purdy actually had a three to nine touchdown to interception ratio. But otherwise the numbers were pretty good. 8.26. So I think that's why P A course Purdy didn't play in this matchup and McCorkl Jones 3 42 slash two passing and 3 19 slash three. There's another gala individual. I guess. So feeling pretty good about that. But I'm not going to be in on anything with Purdy.

14:27We do have a lot of questions Stafford. So by the way, you know, the the total is about 48 spread L A by 3.5. But we have a great data tool over at fantasy points data and it's a significant edge in a lot of ways for the L A Rams pocket protection. So every personal deep passing beating zone coverage. There's a lot of positives here for the L A Rams. So you can understand why Stafford's line is what it is 263.5 at minus 112. It's a good schematic matchup for Stafford. The Niners run cover three cover four at a 61% clip in the two games against L A last year and Stafford was good. So it's 0.23 YPA pretty good pass or rating there. And a 15 to three touchdown interception or ratio. He crushed him.

15:28It's seven touchdown passes in the two games and he threw for two or three 89 and 280. So Stafford should have a pretty good showing here tonight next up here. Let's take a look at the receiving props. 91.5 is the number at minus 114 cover three cover four at that 61% clip. He averages does Puka massive number 4.32 yards per round run. He had 10 grabs for 85 and a touchdown in the first matchup five for 64 with a tuddy. So he's looking pretty darn good. Devante Adams. I call it a solid schematic matchup with the cover three in the cover four. He's at 1.88 yards per round run, which is not beating the world here, but it's solid. He does have an advantage data wise in terms of. San Fran zone looks. They're two high looks also in the slot and in nickel and against the blitz. So there's a number of positives here.

16:30And to that point, Adams got five for 88. We we like them for over four and a half catches in the. The previous matchup I was talking about and he hit it five for 88 and six for 77 with a tuddy in the two games. You should see a lot of Lenore who's good. But I think it's a solid enough match up here for Devante Adams. Next up, it's Mike Evans big Mike 49.5 is a doable number pretty low in minus 113.5 grabs. That's even better. But the odds are pretty tough here. It might as well. 42 good schematic matchup against cover three and cover four, which they run at a 57% clip. He averages 2.41 yards per round run. Here's the problem. The the Rams added Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson in the offseason. I do think Evans is a good bet to see a lot of McDuffie. Although I don't think it'll be a shadow situation.

17:56The rookie don't know what to do with the rookie. I'm not sure how Kyle Shanahan will handle him, but he did look really good in the preseason pretty decent number here 35.5 at minus 109. He should see a lot of Jalen Watson though. And he's good. The former chief corner. Georgie Kittle 34.5. That's low. The L.A. was a little stingy against the position, but Kittle in his lone game had nine grabs for 84 and a touch. Debo Samuel, I'm going to call this a mediocre schematic matchup. It's 29.5 at minus 113 against the cover three and the cover four. He's at a 1.59 yards per round run. He should see a good amount of presuming he'll line up mostly in the slot against Quentin Lake. The veteran nickel back and he's good. Give up only 0.23 fantasy points per round run. Pretty good number there. Terrence Ferguson. I'm going to call this a mediocre matchup. By the way, mediocre means average. It's not good. It's not bad. Everyone assumes mediocre means terrible, but no, it's actually mediocre. It's average.

19:17Cover three and the cover four that the Niners run at 61% clip in this matchup last year. He's it's serviceable 1.71 yards per round run, but he only had this is Terrence Ferguson a 21 yard reception and a 32 yard grab. I remember we I believe we took the over on Ferguson in the second one and he got it on that 32 yard grab, but I'm probably not going to be messing around with him because Colby Parkinson. Remains and that is we're going to call that a medium schematic matchup for him 19.5 Tyler Higby 14. Actually, this has been bet up. I don't know what I mean, I don't know how that happens, but it's been bet up to 17.5 at minus 109. I'm going to call that a medium schematic matchup. He could do some damage here against the two high looks and it could do some damage in line. Kyron Williams 11.5. We do show San Fran with advantage versus Kyron in the zone receiving game and they played zone at 79% of the time. Don't know what to do with the Marcus Robinson. He is certainly just a backup 11.5. We did hit that Robinson prop last year, but he was subit in for somebody probably playing the stripling role. And then finally our rushing props McCaffrey.

20:39This has been bet up to 59.5. L.A. gave up the fifth fewest adjusted yards before contact the 11th fewest rushing yards per game and CMC only average 2.7 yards per carry. So not feeling warm and fuzzy there. Kyron Williams 55.5 at minus 108. San Fran did give up the ninth most adjusted yards before contact. So he did have a pretty solid showing in this game last year. 28 for 132. Blake Korm added 69 yards rushing his line is 45.5. I'm probably going to let that go. And that's it. I think we're all caught up here in terms of all the data points that I wanted to get to. Yeah, Brock, Brock, Purtie at 18.5, at minus 110. It's he is he is using the legs a little bit more and he probably will be on the run a little bit. But I'd like with quarterback rushing props. I think it would be who us to give it a game here like Jake May last night. We saw it went well, but give it a game here in week one to see what we see. And when we return, we'll see what the grinder sees our guy Tom Braille on the other side.

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23:17On V. Son. I'm John Hansen without any further ado directly to the progress of guest line Tom Braille writer co owner over at fantasy points.com on the X machine at Tom Braille and the new betting package over at fantasy points.com featuring the grinder and others, including yours truly. You can get 70% off with that promo code grinder. Look at this guy. He's got promo codes named after his nickname. Tom, how you feeling? I'm feeling pretty good after last night, a good start to know. DiMario Douglas. I was on that scent that he was going to play a lot more than anticipated. It was like polling teeth. He needed five receptions to get over its total, but he was definitely very involved and looks like he's going to be very involved moving forward and also got George Hollani under his yards. Little directionally I was kind of wrong on that one. I thought price and manual Wilson would get a lot of touches, but I was also very right. The George Hollani stinks and he's not good at football and he can't gain a lot of yards whenever he touches the ball.

24:30So I don't know what Seattle is doing. The new coordinator wasting so many touches on George Hollani, but hopefully we don't have to see a whole lot of him moving 40. He stinks. And if the props are still going to be like in the 35 to 40 yard range in the future, I'll probably take some more unders on George Hollani because he's just not very good at football. Yeah, and I noticed with DiMario prop Douglas that it looked really good. So I piggybacked off of that and got that barely and barely have piggybacked. Yeah, barely. I mean like pull it. Freak and teeth. That's the best way to say it, but dude average four yards of catch. I mean, come on. Yeah, but you also he was up over like 15 yards or catch last year. So very different. But we go. Hey, we took all five to get there, but we got a lot of things. We'll do that. We'll take it. It's certainly not going to complain about a win. But but you're picking back in a little bit on Christian McCabby. Now this almost seems too good to be true.

25:32You got it at minus one or two at Fandall CMC over 4.5 receptions. As I've mentioned, all the dude did was catch eight balls in both game last year total 16 on 19 targets. So what are you seeing with Christian McCaffrey tonight? Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of the same things that you are or fantasy points data loves him. We haven't projected for up over five receptions 5.2 receptions and go back and look through the games last year. 19 games last year, he got to five receptions or more in 15 of the 19. So up over 75% of the time, he got to five receptions. And I'm also looking Mike Evans, George Kittle, kind of limited pre seasons, both, you know, I'm excited for Mike Evans this year. I think people have kind of undersold him if he's able to stay, stay healthy. George Kittle coming back from the keyless. We'll see how much he's out there, but maybe both of those guys are on a little bit of a snap count whenever, you know, the both of them are off of the field.

26:40I think Brock party is going to probably turn his eyes to Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. So like him in that scenario. And I just don't see them having a ton of success running the ball in this match up. So I think they're going to be kind of forced to throw. And maybe forced to get creative in the passing game, maybe swing passes out to the flat. We saw a bunch of those last night in the Seattle Seahawks and in New England Patriots game with both backs. So I think we could see those type of plays some screenplays. So I see CMC being very involved. And look at who's behind him. It's Kaylen Black Jordan James, basically two rookies Jordan James barely played last season. And I think the 49ers going to view this game as a big game. This is one that they want to win. They maybe can get the the Rams while they're a little bit vulnerable. This isn't the fully formed Rams that we're going to see probably later in the season.

27:42Everybody knows that the Rams are going to be at the top of the standings. They're the Super Bowl favorites. One of the bigger bigger favorites that we've seen for the Super Bowl in the last decade. So 49ers know if they want to be contenders in the NFC and maybe even win the NFC West. They're going to have to win this game tonight or in the morning as it is over there in Australia. But. So I think that's going to mean a lot of Christian McCaffer out in the field. They're going to get the ball into his hands as much as possible. So I know also kind of works out that they're underdogs in this game. Three and a half point underdogs. If they're trailing in the fourth, third or fourth quarter, he could be out there in passing passing situations quite a bit. So let's let's go with that Christian McCaffer over four and a half. It has been bet up a little bit. I think I saw it's up to like minus 120, but I still like it there. If it gets much higher than it's probably time to back off, but I still think this is a better line for and a half at minus 120. Now you mentioned George Kittle. You mentioned the fact the magnitude of the game like obviously it's week one, but it's a huge game. George Kittle removed from the injury report. He had nine grabs for 84 and a tuddy in his loan game in this matchup. And you know, if he were normal George Kittle, I mean, the line would probably be about 57 58 and a half yet. It's 34.5. Any interest there.

29:10I that is one prop I did look at. I am worried a little bit about the new cornerbacks Trent McDuffy and Jalen Watson. Maybe they take out Mike Evans a little bit Mike Evans could be a little bit rusty too. So I think they're probably going to have more success in the middle of the field, potentially here. George Kittle, it's all it's all going to come down to how many snaps is he going to play is he going to be like 60 to 70% if he does get to that range. I feel pretty good about this prop just a little bit uncertainty there, but we know this, you know, we'll see about that he is coming off in the keyless injuries. So we'll see if he has the same juice after the catch, but he's been one of the most dynamic receivers when the balls in his hands. He's hard to bring down. So I could see him breaking a long player too. And he easily goes over this number. So yeah, this is a number that we would see as you said, it's going to be with Mike Evans and Tonya. It's probably going to be upper 40s, lower 50s and just a couple of weeks. We're getting a nice discounted price this week because of the uncertainty.

30:17But I could certainly see him then wanting to feature him early in the game too. They probably are looking at him all the hard work he put in not even missing a game off an a torn Achilles in January, just a remarkable remarkable recovery. So they might want to pay him off with a couple of looks early in this game to as a little thank you for the rehab that he put in this off season. The Grindertown Brawley on the line with us here on the progressive guest line, writer owner fantasy points calm on the X machine at Tom Brawley. Let's get into a couple of props you like for Sunday. My guy Malik Willis. That was my number one season long future over under total, the rushing total. You like over 37.5. It may have been bet up a little bit even by now. But what do you say there with Malik? Yeah, this is our first spot to really bet Malik Willis as a starter down in Miami. And maybe this line is going to look a little short here in future weeks. This guy is going to run a bunch.

31:22You know, that's part of his game. We've seen it in his limited starts to start his career. And even whenever he came on in relief for Jordan love the past couple of years, past couple of years. So I think we're got he's got a close to a 15% scramble rate. So basically, you know, every time he drops back, there's, you know, one out of every nine times or so, he's probably going to scramble. So we got, you know, opportunities there. But I also think they'll have some design runs for him in the in the playbook, Devon H&N, one of the more dynamic players in the NFL at the running back position, capable of breaking off long runs at any point. Defenses are going to want to focus on him. So any action off of him zone action, RPO action, where there's a keeper with Malik Willis, I think could, you know, potentially go for a nice chunk game for for the dolphins. So, you know, he's done this. He's gotten to eight games where he's gotten 60% of the snaps or more. And he's gotten to 41 or more rushing yards and six of those. So a nice 75% clip. So I'm liking him to make some early noise, not a bad match up here against the Las Vegas Raiders.

32:34Definitely keeping an eye on him for fantasy. He could be very intriguing off the waiver wire in the in the future weeks. You also do like Don Tavian wicks. So we won't get into it. But I know you're pretty damn confident in this one. Good vibes all summer for wicks. I'm going to be a little slow out of the gate. Wicks knows the offense fairly well. You ran a similar scheme there in Green Bay with Manion is also a downfield maven. So you like Don Tavian wicks over 27.5 receiving yards. Those are good plays that you're confident in, but they'll be more and you could use that promo code grinder for 70% off the fantasy points betting package featuring Tom Braille and others. Great stuff Tom will talk to you on the other side. But first we will talk about college football and the NFL officially underway. So now it's time to get your ed with decent pro become a decent pro subscriber today updated NFL betting guide post season post preseason updates.

33:34The college football betting guide with previews of all 38 138 FPS teams. Sign up now. You'll get a bunch of stuff decent dot com slash subscribe my official picks on the other side here on prop points. You're watching prop points with the guru John Hansen on V. Send these sports betting network. The final segment of this Thursday edition of prop points here on V. Send it is upon us. I'm John Hansen fantasy points dot com per usual and let's start out with a couple of leans. I'm not giving out as many official plays this year. It's just way too many as I've explained before. But I do know that people like to have a like a multitude of plays. So we'll pop out. I do have four actual props that we'll get to, but I also have a couple of leans and I'm going to look for unders just because why because unders much to my chagrin are much better plays and they win more.

35:00So I am out there hunting and looking for unders and it is a little weird that Tyler Higby's line has has gone up a few yards. Now it's 17.5 it that's a completely. It's kind of a joke of a number. It could be one little screen pass couple of grabs. But overall I think it's probably one of the best unders to take a shot with. I'm looking at this as kind of a medium matchup at best and we all know that Terrence Ferguson is the newer shiny or Tory that they probably want to ramp up his snaps a little bit and not to mention Colby Parkinson. Not to mention the fact that it is actually a very good schematic matchup for the two wide receivers. But yeah, I mean he could do some damage a little bit here with the two high looks and zone. But overall I'd say it's a medium schematic matchup. Just hope he only catches like two balls and they tackle basically doesn't get over to 18 yards 17.5 that's a lean that's an under at minus 111.

36:06And then I do have another under it all ties together with the Christian McCaffrey narrative. This has actually been bet up one yard this morning. But we'll take it. We will go under 59.5 rushing yards for C. M. C. at minus 111 as I've mentioned we've got a great great tool over at fantasy points calm that really pulls all the data together for every player for every week and for every matchup. And I pulled up the Christian McCaffrey one and and it's basically one side is where McCaffrey wins in this matchup the other side is where the defense wins in this matchup. And for this case where L.A. wins they win in a lot of different ways seven in the box 11 personnel. They also win on man gap runs and zone runs which is problematic and it would explain how he only ran for 87 yards in two games in this matchup last year with 32 carries that's only 2.7 yards per carry.

37:14So don't love unders but unders win. So we saw last night Ramandre Stevens income this close I could see McCaffrey doing the same thing or go over by like a yard. But that's that's an under that I'm willing to at least put in on the show here as a lean you know just makes total sense and of course correspondingly we are into McCaffrey in terms of the receiving and that leads us to our we have come an at you we've got a Thursday night special a touchdown prop and four of my top props. You've heard the analytics you've heard the stats now it's time for what you've really been waiting for the gurus top props. Alrighty here we go with Mr. CMC now we were in on this couple of days ago it does seem a little too good to be true in terms of over 4.5 receptions at a minus one 13 but as we've

38:22mentioned feel like I've been saying this a lot my man caught 16 balls last year in that matchup for about 48 and a tuddy that isn't two games of course but looking at that data we just talked about how McCaffrey is on the wrong end of a matchup edge if you will in terms of the running game but in terms of the passing game this is where McCaffrey wins zone receiving and they are zone heavy they run zone it's like 60 or 76% and then also blitz receiving kind of the the hot read guy and they do blitz at a decent percentage we actually pushed out a clip on fantasy points of McCaffrey catching a ball on the outside against the blitz last year so I do feel very good about over 4.5 receptions at minus one 13 and I will double depth because you know the Niners are 3.5 point underdogs again the Rams are looking pretty good you know all the schematics look good for Stafford look really good for Stafford and Puka rock solid for Devante Adams and Kyron Williams so I do expect this one to feature some

39:39offense and scoring and some point so hopefully they are playing from behind and we get a lot of checked out a lot of swing passes to McCaffrey I mean we're talking Kyle Shanahan he's the goat and it's a big game and he's going to have to get a lot out of McCaffrey because Mike Evans is got a tough matchup there he's likely going to see a lot of Trent McDuffie and of course we don't know exactly how many snaps George Kittle will play so we're going to double dip there on it's so good for him to be able to do that there on CMC but speaking of Kittle I cannot pass it up you know I do like to avoid playing injured guys but you know he is off the injury report and all reports or that George Kittle is you know still moving pretty well still relatively explosive and in such a big game I got to think he's going to be a factor as he was in this matchup last year I'm pretty sure we want to pretty easily a George Kittle prop in this matchup last year he had nine grabs for 84 yards and a touchdown again Evans probably going to have some issues on the outside against those revamp that revamped ram secondary

40:52Desson struggling is just a rookie it's a very good schematic matchup of course two for George Kittle against the cover three in the cover four which they run 57% of the time 2.59 yards per round run LA did give up the eighth fewest receiving yards per game but the 15th most receptions per game but 35 34.5 it just really seems rock solid for me and I'm going to go in on that and what I'm going to do is go in on that and when when and down just go with George because he is the man and then last but not least we did get a Devonte Adams prop right on this show last year it's been a quiet summer for Devonte Adams but I think that's good quiet means no injuries at least no reported injuries and no signs of trouble which to me says okay I know Stafford didn't play in the preseason knew that it's a Devonte but they're out there in practice stacking reps on the heels of a 14 touchdown season we're going to go over 51.5 receiving yards for Devonte Adams at minus 113 rock solid the schematic matchup against the cover three in the cover four which they run at a 61% clip 1.88 yards per round run that is just below

42:11let's say very good but again looking at the data we show Devonte is having an advantage against their zone against their two high looks in the slot in nickel against a blitz so we're looking good here he had five grabs for 88 and 6 for 77 with a touchdown should see a lot of Lenore who is pretty good corner but he is beatable we also are going to pop out a touchdown prop first one of the year and we're going right back to the George Kittle well why well number one he's George Kittle number two he did score in this matchup last year number three those wide outs on the outside do have a tough matchup and then last but not least is a good number George Kittle anytime touchdown at plus 300 that does now lead us to the last order of business here on the program last nights Wednesday night special didn't work out quite frankly we did get one catch from AJ Brown in the first quarter but that was not enough he needed like another 10 11 yards but these are high risk plays and pretty high reward so we'll stick with the CMC receiving narrative

43:29and we'll look at him getting seven or more receptions tonight in the game that is plus 262 if you recall our rule is it's not a special unless it's at least plus 200 he did this last year in both games he had eight grabs in both games so I feel pretty good about that Thursday night special hopefully it is special I am feeling pretty good about these two offenses although we are going to play the game in the first two games although we are in Australia so we are in something of unknown territory but when in doubt trust Sean McVeigh and trust Kyle Shanahan don't go anywhere up next here on Veson it is money moves with stormy Bonnet Toby Bonnet Tony and Jonathan Von Tobel on today's show ESPN Stanford Steve has his best bets for tonight's game and Jeff Erickson has his best player props for week one at four eastern follow the money with Mitch and Paul Lee Howard right here on Veson the sports betting network good luck with all the plays tonight good luck to our plays and we'll catch you at Maniana for another edition of Pop Points right here on Veson