NFL Week 1 PLAYER PROPS - Picks and Bets

0:00Welcome to the Take the Points NFL Player Prop Show. We are back and I am so excited. I am Eric Cohen. Very glad to be joined by the great C&J. The best prop better in my opinion on the planet. Prop stars. And of course the Hall of Famer. The fantasy Hall of Famer. The genius as we all look at him. The great. Dave Richard. Uncle Dave. Great to be on with you once again. I know we did our preview show. But glad to share the screen with you. It's always an honor. How excited are you? It's back. Your crazy season is here. What does a week look like for you? Oh, we can't talk about the week for me. It's a long week, you see. But I can tell you that it's been an even longer year. And I remember how I started this show last year with a donut. And I was pissed.

1:00And I ended our shows on a decent run. And I realized during those shows and that went through the Super Bowl that unders were the play. And I know that people don't like taking unders. Overs are more fun. I'm doing nothing but unders. And I'm going to try and do it all year long. And we're going to start today. We'll see how it goes. Yeah. For coming from me today, you see. Now wait a second, Uncle Dave. Prop me is the one who always told me it's an under until it's an over. So a prop you would have to agree with Uncle Dave, right? To an extent, I feel like you need to be fluid when it comes to play a props. And it's a constantly evolving market. And I wouldn't suggest being married to any singular trend. So while unders historically have performed better than the Overs, and I do think oftentimes the sharper side does tend to be under category, that being said, the market again is constantly evolving. So like if we're looking at the landscape right now, a lot of these numbers are depressed.

2:02And I think there's actually quite a bit of value on the Overs. So that being said, be fluid. So. Right. So let me just correct my point here, you see. I'm not saying that Overs are a bad bet. In fact, there were a couple of Overs that I liked and I even thought about giving up. This is half stick, but also half, okay, this worked for me. And I want to go with what's working for me. And that's taking under. So I had to look far and wide to find unders that I liked a lot this week. And I did what I always tend to do. Gravitay toward the superstars, the players we know, and the most easiest stats that you can look at today. Propy. I just think that's an excellent point that Dave made. Oftentimes when people are in slums, when I'm in a slum personally, I often suggest to people to go with what you know. And that kind of means hone in on the category where you've had the most success for me. It's unders, Dave, it's been unders for him as well. And then whether it's QB props, rushing props, attempts props, and just kind of make things

3:03easy. Just take things one better at a time. So I would implore Dave to do exactly what he's doing. And he's adopting that philosophy throughout the duration of the season. And I think we'll have good results. But I also have to apologize. I also have to apologize because I did not want to start this show with the idea of talking about slumps. We haven't made a bet yet. It's week one. Well, no one's slumping. I mean, for crying out loud, Sia took the 49ers on the money line yesterday. Well, I want to talk about Sia for a second before we get going with our picks. See, you're on a heater that's unlike any heater in terms of NFL props that we've seen in a long time. I feel like in basketball, they say you see the hoop is bigger when you're on fire. Is that you right now pick an NFL props? It does feel like that. We'll see about this weekend. But for people who are fans of this show last year, I hit my last 13 in a row. I hit 13 out of 14 on sports line. But the one that I lost was actually not on this show. It was on like an HQ segment on a Saturday.

4:04So I went 13 for 13 over my last 13. And then I opened the season. If you follow me on sports line, three for three. So I've won 16 of my last 17 NFL player props. But here's the thing. We know the slumps coming at some point. It comes for everybody. It came for me in the middle, or sort of slightly to the beginning to middle of last year as well. And I think you just have to be really careful. And I do think this isn't like an advice column. Like we kind of started like slumps and unders and like, okay, let's like bring everybody up a little bit. With all of that said, you do have to pick what you're comfortable with. And I'm comfortable in certain markets. I'm comfortable with certain things. And that's where you're going to excel ultimately. So we'll see how the year goes. Yeah, I'm just on probably the best run I've ever been on from a NFL player props standpoint. Keep it going. And when it comes to slumps, this guy knows it with my dating life. So yeah, let's find more positivity starting today and prop it's time for wide receiver props. And let's start with your guy, Parker Washington, which way do you lean this week? Yeah, if you've been following my off season content, extremely bullish on Parker Washington

5:09and coming right out the gate, I'm going to back him. I think this is ultimately going to be viewed as a discounted line going over 51 and a half receiving yards for Parker Washington, who I think is firmly entrenched as Trevor Lawrence's top target. I think Parker Washington is going to function as the primary target for Trevor Lawrence. Pick up where he left off at the end of last season. He was really that wide receiver one in this Jaguars passing offense that made some big strides. And I think that's going to continue to be the case in this Liam Cohen offense, the slot role, which is Parker Washington's is extremely valuable in a Liam Cohen offense. I've talked about this before. This dates back to Cooper Cups, his store at 2K season Chris Godwin when he was second in fantasy points per game. That was playing the slot role in a Liam Cohen offense. Now this is Parker Washington's job. I just again, heading into heading into his. He's yet to get a big NFL contract.

6:10His third season in the NFL is a former six round pick. I just think every arrow that could possibly be pointing up for Parker Washington is pointing up for him. So I think he's headed for a very big game and season and yeah, love me some Parker Washington. So so Uncle Dave, when it comes to Parker Washington, a lot of people are on the bandwagon. I know we talked about it a little bit on our preview show last week. Are you as bullish on Parker Washington or at least as close as propious? Been that way since the end of last season. It just made the most sense that he evolved his game evolved last year. There was a point in the middle of the year is that game against LA, the Jaguars came back from that trip and they intended to give Travis Hunter a bigger role in that offense and Hunter got hurt in practice. Parker Washington stepped up and we all saw what happened after that. I had the chance to watch him practice against Tampa. He had some amazing moments against the Bucks defense in that game.

7:12A Bucks defense that was getting to Trevor Lawrence, by the way. And for this matchup against Cleveland, you look at the Browns and they're going to have a different defensive scheme that they've had the past few years. Jim Schwartz is out. They're going to be more zone based. They've got excellent outside corners. It's that slot corner and it's the interior of the field that I think will be wide open and that's where Parker Washington is going to work. We love this play from Prop Sewy. Absolutely. And I would also offer playing out of the slot at the most advantageous position as far as wide receivers are concerned. The most difficult for defenses to guard as well. Parker Washington built like an NFL running back as well. Yards after the catchability is extremely impressive. This guy was a full time slot player at Penn State. So this is a position that is Taylor fit for Parker Washington. And yeah, I think if he stays healthy, he's going to have north of 1300 yards a season. Wow. That's quite an expectation. See, as far as your first pick goes, I really, really like this.

8:14And I believe somebody in the comments did as well. Devon Bayley is the number two receiver to start the season for the New Orleans Saints. It's a potential shootout game against Detroit. Which way are you leaning? For the record, I think it was Romeo Dobbs, Stan. That's his handle that liked that. He must have seen the early edge morning show. And I got to say, it's a tough time to be that handle right now. Is it not? I mean, especially if you're a Patriots fan and a Romeo Dobbs fan, just it wasn't great. But let's move on. Devon Bayley, you know, it's funny because Eric David, who was watching the morning show and watches this show as well, he's like, hey, this, this Devon Bayley play, it's kind of, you know, an obscure player. It reminded him of the Xavier LeGet play that I think I let off week one, which didn't come to fruition, by the way. And I get that. And he said, well, what's the difference between that and this? And the main difference is, is Bryce Young to be honest with you. But the reason I like his over receiving yards, 38 and a half might be at 39 and a half. Now it's 38 and a half this morning. I think you can still catch that. But either way, this is a guy who, when he was healthy last year, post-resheed, she

9:17he'd trade. He became the wide receiver too. I mean, you could make the argument that tight end, John Johnson is actually the wide receiver too, but he's a tight end. And I think in a negative game script, we're going to see Devon Bayley get the targets he got again when he was healthy. It's only a four game sample size. He had 26 targets over those four games and he hit this number in three out of four. One, he barely hit. One, he barely missed and two, he blew out of the water. So I think in Detroit, optimal game conditions, optimal game script. I think we're going to see Devon Bayley not featured, but get enough work to perhaps sail over this line. I think latering this play actually makes some sense. It is a little speculative. But again, in this type of game script, with this type of receiver, 65, 44, 740, I think he can get behind this Detroit secondary, which in my opinion is not very good. Our guy, Danny Brasco in the chat, excellent handicap, or make sure to ask him any questions while he's here. Danny, glad to have you here. Hey, Uncle Dave, we have a question from Brock in the chat. Any love for the rookie wide receivers of the Saints? We know Jordan Tyson is out on IR, Bryce Lance.

10:19There were no props available that I saw for him this week. They weren't sportsbooks. Didn't have it. Any thoughts on those guys going forward? No, I don't think that there's... Are you talking for fantasy or for props? For props. I mean, Lance right now. So, yeah. And Barry and Brasco might be a guy. Those props will come out probably right before kickoff. No, I mean, if you're looking at that, you're kind of rummaging through the trash. I think that Bayley makes a lot of sense. Here's an interesting note. You know how many pre-season snaps, Crystal Lava, I had this year? Zero. Do you know how many Tyler Schuck had this year? Zero. Do you guess on how many Joanne Johnson had this year? I'm going to guess zero. Okay, so those are three players. We know for sure that those are starters in the New Orleans Saints offense, protected from playing in pre-season games. Devon Bayley, how many do you think he had? A couple, maybe. No, zero. Wow. He's a starter. He's going to play. This number seems high on the surface.

11:22It's a red flag line. They're trying to get you to take the under. Listen, when C is on a heater, he's, I mean, let's see, you're on an unbelievable generational heater. We'll call it blind follow, blind tail. Devon Bayley, for that. For that. See, uh, proper, you're always on a heater. You're just a generational player. I call you the Michael Jordan of prop betting. So tell us about another one of your favorite players this year, Colston, Loveland. Yeah, also back in Colston, Loveland this week, going over 15 and a half, receiving yards versus a Panthers team. Very good match up for Colston, Loveland. The Panthers gave up top 10 production and multiple categories, two opposing tight ends last season. And I look for Colston, Loveland to really benefit in the Chicago offense. Caleb Williams heading into year two, this Ben Johnson offense. I think Colston, Loveland is going to be his primary target. I'm also very bullish on Luther, Burton, Roma, Dune, Zay. His status up in the air if he if he does suit up, not sure he's going to be at a hundred percent.

12:27Roma, Dune, Zay really struggled to get on the same page, especially down the stretch last year, whereas Colston, Loveland was the opposite as the season progressed. We saw really flashes of what made Colston, Loveland, in my opinion, look like one of the best pass catching tight ends as a rookie, which is extremely rare. Many tight ends have trouble adjusting to the NFL. Wasn't the case with Colston, Loveland, down the stretch over the final four games. This guy was averaging 12 targets over seven receptions of game. 90 plus yards was a major factor in the red zone. Two massive playoff performances as well. So I think this Chicago team is going to throw the football a lot. I think Caleb Williams is going to make a big jump in year three. This guy's improved year in and year out dating back to USC. I think this offense is going to come a lot more naturally to him. I think you're one of the bedjons and the offense.

13:27You're learning a lot of verbiage. Now I think we're going to see really the fruits of that year in year two. And I think Colston Loveland is an excellent spot to have a big, big week one performance and really be that primary target for him. This guy looks already to me like one of the best move tight ends in the NFL. He's a very good blocker as well. So he stays on the field. So I think Colston Loveland's headed for eight to ten targets on a weekly basis. And I think he has massive upside. And if Roman Dunes a sits, that's even more targets are likely to be funneled to him. A propi our first propiism of the year, massive upside. Mark that one down. Ben, we got to put that one in there. The propi dictionary massive upside. See, I'm not sure if this next guy has massive upside. I like Michael Wilson this year in Arizona. I have some bets on him to get a thousand yards. But it's still Marvin Harrison is the number one guy in Arizona. So what do we do with him this week in a potential shootout game against the Chargers?

14:29Yeah, I like Michael Wilson a lot too. But I don't like him quite as much when Marvin Harrison's on the field. I don't get a lot of those games where he's shining. I think Dave brought this up when I was given out the Marvin Harrison year long prop. A lot of those games where he's shining. I think he's going to shine with Marvin Harrison on the field. But a lot of it was without Marvin Harrison. Now you put Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson on the field with Jacobi Berset. And all the sudden that target share really spikes for Marvin Harrison at least versus Michael Wilson. So I'm going to take his over 47 and half receiving yards. And honestly, if I didn't make this play in a likely negative game script with the wide receiver one, it would almost be hypocritical to my year long bet because my whole premise of the year long bet, which was over 824 and a half receiving yards, which some people got at 800 flat, was that, hey, he's a much better receiver than people think that he got to 885 his rookie year that injuries held him back last year. Also, some bad play admittedly. But more importantly, Arizona is going to be playing with a negative game script and a quarterback that slings it at least for most of the season as long as Jacobi Berset is starting. And I think that's what we have here. The charges are going to be able to move the ball very easily against the Arizona Cornels through the run, prop coming later, and through the pass.

15:32Now what does that mean for Arizona? They're going to be playing catch up and at some point they're going to have to sling it. And I think Marvin Harrison, Traymick, Brian and Michael Wilson will all get the fruits of that. But I also think Marvin Harrison is going to be featured early in the season. I think he's going to have a bigger target share than Michael Wilson. Maybe not Traymick, Brian. And I think this number is just too low. Give me the over 47 and a half receiving yards. How high would you play it up to, see ya? I guess I would play it up to 49 and a half, but I'm not even sure it's ever going to get there because the here's the thing. And here's why I took the over on the year long. The stock is so low for Marvin Harrison. People are going to need to see it before this line is going to go up. So maybe he has a spike game this week. Maybe he has a spike game next week. All the sudden we're flirting with 56 and a half instead of 47, 48, 49 and a half. But again, this week, I don't think it gets much past 48 now. All right, Poppy. Let's talk about the Buccaneers. Now I asked Uncle Dave before the show. I said, Uncle Dave, I have a key fantasy question. Jalen Coker for the Panthers or Chris Godwin from the Buccaneers.

16:32And Uncle Dave gave me a thorough explanation and told me why to start Chris Godwin. And so of course, you listen to the fantasy Hall of Famer. Of course. But Poppy, a guy that I'm not sure about because he's got a, he's got a bad toe. Is a mecca of Buka. Does that mean we're fading in this week? We are not fading a mecca of Buka. I'm extremely bullish on a mecca of Buka. Admittedly, there's a little speculation regarding if mecca Buka is aft full health. But all things considered, he's practicing in full. He also got an entire month off to rest his toe. And I think it's important to remember that Imecca Buka over the first half of the season last year was projected for a 13-year, 100-yard season out the gate. He was extremely impressive over the first eight games. His production significantly cooled off in the second half of the year. I think a lot of that can be attributed to both the, the bucks past catchers getting healthier. A couple with a Buka experiencing numerous injuries and also Baker Mayfields play completely plummeted.

17:36But now Mike Evans has vacated that offense. I think a mecca of Buka is going to function as Baker's primary target. Baker being healthy, coming off of a big contract extension here. I look at this matchup against Cincinnati. This has the highest projected total on the slate this week. So in my opinion, we're getting a significantly discounted line here for a wide receiver one. And again, that projects to be extremely high scoring. So I always talk about getting cheap pieces in these shootouts. This is a prime example of that in my opinion. I think a Buka is very likely to be fully healthy. I don't think they would be risking him here in week one if that wasn't the case. I think he got some time off to rest. And again, I think if we see a healthy A Buka, this guy was on a historic run early. A lot of that, I mean, not a lot of that. Some of that I think can be attributed to good variance. But this guy was averaging close to 80 plus receiving yards over the first nine weeks of the season.

18:37And so this is an exceptional prospect. So again, very bullish year two last season. The Cincinnati Bengals gave up 2500 yards after the catch. That is not that's not an error. That is a real stat. I think this Bengals defense likely improves some. But still major question marks all over the place, particularly in the back end in my opinion. So I think this is a great matchup for a Buka. If he's healthy, this will ultimately go down as a huge discount for him. Even in his rookie season, he was topping 63 and a half receiving yards by like week five. So I'm willing to roll the dice here on a Buka getting a big discount in week one. What is a brilliant matchup? Uncle Dave, what do you make of a Buka? This is a guy that cost me a nice wager to get a thousand yards. He was trending so well at over 600 yards in his first, what nine games? Less than 300 yards combined over his last eight games. Now he starts the season and he's hurt.

19:38Are you with Propy or against him this week? Can I be somewhere in the middle because I don't like being against Propy. That's usually a rest of the P for disaster. I'd stay away. If I had to take a lean, I would say that he would go over, but I would not take over 59 and a half. We don't know how healthy is. It's great that he's practicing. He did not practice for like a month. So there are going to be some questions about whether or not he's got to knock some rust off. They're obviously going to do that on the fly. I would guess that we're going to get home on this one, but it's not going to happen until the fourth quarter. Completely agree that the game should be high scoring. I give Cincinnati's defense a lot more credit than Propy does last year, total disaster. This off season, they made some pretty big changes up front. I think that's going to make a difference. They're not going to be the bottom of the barrel as far as defense goes. They're going to be in middle of the pack, but they evolved a cornerback who was really good last year in DJ Turner. I know he's not at 100%.

20:39But he makes me a little bit nervous because I could absolutely see him shadowing a mecca of Buka. Combine that with the fact that Baker may feel does have other targets to throw to. So even in a high scoring game, there is a chance that a mecca of Buka won't have 100 yards in a touchdown. And I don't think anybody's expecting that and Propy's not saying that. But I do think that there is some downside here. And I would probably just stay away if I had my drivers. Just to clarify, his line is 51 and a half, not 59 and a half. Correct. Correct. Yes. Oh, I know. But I wouldn't surprise me if we go into the fourth quarter and he's got four catches for 35 yards. I would also have work kind of sweating this one out, but he gets there. Chris Godwin's best days are long behind him. Kate Oton has not been able to draw targets with a healthy receiving core. Jalen McMillan has been a complete mix back. I think a Buka is far in the way the most talented receiver on this box roster. And I think he's going to function as a primary target for Baker may feel terrible.

21:40You absolutely will not get an argument from me on any of those points. It should also be noted that Jalen McMillan is doubtful for this game. So that's one less downfield threat that Tampa has. And that might actually help a Buka. In fact, that would probably put me over the top on taking over at 51 and a half. But if it's too much higher, if it's higher than that, I think I'd get really cold feet. And I already have cold feet as it is. I will also push back on Chris Godwin and Kate Oton not having anything left in the tank. I think we'll see those guys be serviceable. And maybe in the case of Godwin, good for Tampa Bay for at least the first half of the year. I think a lot of that's going to be in the short area though. I think Godwin and Oton probably in the short area, I think a Buka is going to be all over the field. With that said, I just kind of want to put this disclaimer out for any of these picks and any of these teams. There's a lot of teams that are walking into situations, especially on the road like Tampa Bay. And by the way, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati are two of the teams I'm highest on this year among maybe one or two other teams. They happen to be playing each other. But you can have a Buka not get there this week.

22:41And it might not mean much as it relates to next week. So I don't I just want to put the disclaimer out there to not overreact to what happens this week because a lot of these guys who didn't get a lot of preseason or who might be coming off injuries. And I'm not I'm not isolating a Buka necessarily or might not have the best matchup or situation. I think could be really good in the coming weeks to just keep that in mind. The other thing I want to bring up because of the injuries. Can he gain well out of the backfield might get a lot of receptions in this game and a lot of receiving yards, especially if some of these guys end up being out or hurt like the JL and Macmillan's. I understand they're completely different position, but look at those two before we get the final injury report. Hey, Uncle Dave, I want to ask you something and I know it's kind of off topic. You were talking about probably talking about this high total game here in Cincinnati between Tampa Bay and since and the Bengals. The problem that I have is the last three opening weeks for Joe Burrow have been dreadful. I mean, he's going for less than 400 yards passing over those three years in week one. What does that Matt? Do you factor that in when you do you say just Joe Burrow gets up to a slow start because of no preseason or how do you factor that in?

23:46Well, I believe he did play in the preseason and I believe he's healthy and that is a huge difference to where he's been the previous three years. And so with that being the case, I'm I'm on board with burrow as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks you could start and that's like me saying that the sky is going to be blue tomorrow. So yeah, slow start and that's a hell of a stat. You see 400 yards under that and three games combined combined. I'm not worried about it. I actually think the weak I think tap is defense is better than I thought it would be, but their secondary is especially a weak point. I think burrow can take advantage. I just want to say that even if he didn't play in the preseason, I would factor that in exactly 0%. It's a thing. We have to work on the premise that sometimes people are learning from these mistakes and these mishaps as well. And this is Joe Burrow we're talking about just saying. We have a couple guys in the chat. We have our Romeo Dobbs guy and we have Jacob Crater who like Garrett Wilson. So I want to talk about Garrett Wilson here. I am playing his over 60 and a half receiving yards minus 111.

24:49It should be a target monster for Gina Smith who kind of locks in on that on that number one primary receiver. Now he had Wilson had 70 or more yards in four of his last five last year for he got hurt and remember he had Justin Fields throwing to him. And Justin Fields is a passing quarterback is not Gina Smith. I mean, neither amazing options, but Gina Smith is a much better thrower in the NFL than Justin Fields is. Last year, Garrett Wilson had a 31% target share in the first six weeks. Then he got hurt. Then you know, that was the end of Garrett Wilson. And then he got a lot in week one, the Titan secondary. It's okay. And it's rebuilt. It's good. It's not great. It should be a competitive game. I think Garrett Wilson gets ten or more targets this week. Gets peppered with him. And I think goes over 60 and a half receiving yards. So glad that a few of you in the chat are with me on that. Propy, your thoughts on Garrett Wilson. Are you a fan or are you not a fan this year? I'm a fan of Garrett Wilson this year. I think he was a good value in fantasy and best ball.

25:51So yeah, I'm bullish on Garrett Wilson. His ability to command targets is elite. And yeah, I think this is, I'd make the number of 63 and a half. So not I kind of don't have a strong opinion this week, but I'm very bullish on his long term outlook. So we're going to switch to running back props. And I have a strong opinion on this player and see a year. I mean, you're seeing the hoop. I mean, you're seeing a figure. O'Marie and Hampton against this dreadful cardinals defense. We know Larry, Larry Hurtsin's talked about Lad Maconkey who's a great bet this week. I think the chargers are going to score close to 40. But O'Marie and Hampton could have a monster week. Tell us why you like him. Yeah, I mean, it's just such a good matchup. And somebody can update me on Keaton Mitchell. I know he was limited at practice all week. And so maybe he got a full practice in, but he certainly hasn't been around for the last couple of weeks with, I guess it's a, it's a soft tissue hamstring injury. With all that said, I think that kind of helps the case for O'Marie and Hampton,

26:52whether Keaton Mitchell is healthy or not. And against this Arizona Cardinals Rush defense or just their defense in general. I mean, I really see the game plan being O'Marie and Hampton just bludgeoning this team behind relatively healthy offensive line. We know they have the tackles. We know they have already sustained injuries in the preseason. But O'Marie and Hampton is the one. And even if there's a one be there with Keaton Mitchell, I think the way this game is going to go, especially with the positive game script is that they're just going to feed O'Marie and Hampton, which is by the way, why I liked his rushing attempts over 15 and a half as well. And frankly, I expected his rushing attempts to be in the 16 and a half range. But again, Keaton Mitchell made complicate that either way. I think we're going to see O'Marie and Hampton get to 70 yards. And so I like this number 65 now. I don't have a Friday update Thursday, limited hamstring. I think he'll end up playing, but I think he's not going to play it on. And the last thing I'll say is we all respect Mike McDaniel. We all know he's going to pull out all the stops. He's not going to do that week one when he doesn't have to against Arizona. This could be a very simplified, very just like kind of boring game plan, frankly.

27:54And I like the game environment for a lot of players in this game, which is why you've heard two props from me here. I don't want to give an underplay. And then probably I'm going to circle back to you because I was so excited when I saw C is running back play that I missed a wide receiver play of a guy that I really like is for a futures go. But I want to give a pick that I thought you would be proud of me for you always taught me unders or the way to go. So I'm giving an under and I figured it was in honor of you. I didn't realize it would be an honor of Dave today. How about a Quincha Judkins under 58 and a half rushing yards. So it's pretty simple formula for the Jaguars this week to stack the box and make the Sean Watson beat him because the Sean Watson is at this point in his career till proven otherwise. Not a very good NFL quarterback Brown's offensive line rebuilt but still stinks. And I don't think Gameflow is going to be in Judkins favor. I don't see him getting more than let's say 15 carries this week. And I'm not sure that he can average four yards per carry running behind this poor unit last year. Judkins had the fourth fewest yards per before contact per attempt. So basically the defenders were getting to him before he was going forward here basically.

29:02I'm not sure the Brown's offensive line. It's going to do him any favors in this match. So I'm rolling with that under 58 and a half. Proper. Do you commend me for once in my life taking an under. I like the under look. Yeah, Jacksonville's defense was very good last season. I think they made overperformed a little bit. But yeah, I think it's a tough matchup for Judkins. So yeah, I think it's good look. You see. Uncle Dave, we're going to segue back to wide receivers because I was so excited as I said to the C is prop that I missed one. I want to ask you before profit gets to his last one, the Tennessee wide receiver situation. You bring in one Dale Robinson from the Giants, obviously Brian Daybowl is is offensive coordinator former head coach in New York. Then you draft carnal tape fourth overall. Then you've still got guys like I'll manner and Calvin Ridley. What do you make sense of that wide receiver situation in Tennessee? I think one Dale is going to be the slot guy and he might end up getting the most targets this week. He's an easy layup option for cam warden lean on against the Jets.

30:07And I'm not 100% sure what to expect from this Jets defense. They've really retooled it there. And Aaron Glenn has not necessarily made grand details about what he intends to do. But don't really feel good about carnal tape after what we saw in the preseason. And really it's it's what we saw from cam warden the preseason. Now what we saw from carnal tape. I would imagine that one Dale will get the most catches one of one Dale tape Ridley will get the most yardage. I'd be shocked if any of them had more than 55 yards in the game. This is really an offense that you want to try and avoid at least for now. Even though they've got a match up this week that is potentially winnable. They're not going to have a lot of these over the course of the year. Prop. Yeah, through some darts. You know, I love those milestone props where you throw some darts 1000 yards 750 yards for the season 1000 yards for the season on one Dale Robinson. I don't feel as good after listening to what Dave just said, but you feel good about his prop this week against the Jets. I do. Yeah, Wondale Robinson became the shortest wide receiver in NFL history to have 1000 plus yards last year.

31:14And then he signed a four year contract for nearly $80 million to go over to Tennessee where he's following Brian Dable who was the new Titans offensive coordinator. Wondale Robinson being very familiar with Brian Dable. This will be his fourth year being paired with Brian Dable. And he's going to be in a very fantasy friendly position operating out of the slot where Wondale really thrives. He expanded his route three last season though. He was running more vertical routes, which ultimately I think makes it more difficult to defend. But yeah, he excels in the short and intermediate portions of the field. He's really going to be that safety blanket for cam ward. And I think cam ward's going to lean on him heavily here. I also think it's pretty good matchup against a Jets secondary ranked in the bottom 10 and by PFF heading into this season. So yeah, I look for early on cam ward to make some safe and reliable throws.

32:14And I think a lot of those are going to be funneled to Wondale Robinson who again is very comfortable in this Brian Dable system. So yeah, I think 41 and a half receiving yard will ultimately be viewed as a discount. I think as the season progresses, this will kick up closer to 50. So I'm in the back Wondale week one to come out the gate pretty hot. But again, 41 is not an insurmountable total by any stretch of the imagination. You can get there on low volume. So yeah, I like the spot for Wondale. What about catches, prop me for Wondale? I mean, that's a guy, you know, we could see three yard catch, four yard catch with Kim. Do you have any lean as to his catch total if I'm throwing together some car lays and want to want to put some things together? Yeah, it's four and a half. I prefer the yards here just in comparison to five catches, four and a half being significant steeper. Price points. So I do like the receptions, but I think I'll get enough volume here. And again, I think is Routri expanded to the point where he's capable of getting a couple of chunk plays throughout this game as well.

33:16One thing I want to point out, EC is especially with Wondale because I really like Wondale, especially in games where there's going to be a negative game script, which is going to be often with the Titans, not necessarily week one. I really like that receptions play probably the yards too, but I do think he's just going to be a comfy target. Maybe in garbage time. I think the Titans are going to be bad again. And I think they're going to lose this game to the jets. And I also wanted to add in breeze hall over Russia temps. The numbers really high 16 and half. You can get it at 15 and a half in some places, but you have to pay like minus 135 juice. I could take the rushing yards for breeze hall as well. I don't know how efficient he's going to be on the road. It's about 65 and a half rushing yards there, but I would look to breeze hall's rushing attempts because I think the jets are going to stay in this game. I think they're probably win this game. I think they could win this game just on their defense and running the ball. I think they're going to protect Geno Smith on the road. I think we're going to see some good stuff from breeze hall maybe all year, but in week one as well. Two things. Number one, definitely love the idea of breeze hall on this game. Number two, the Angela Ponds is one of the rookie cornerbacks that the jets drafted and I watched him win a national championship against my my hurricanes.

34:20He's actually a great corner, even though he's a little undersized. He's not going to play. And that means that a guy named Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is going to take over as the starting nickel for the New York Jets should open the door for Wondale Robinson. Brownlee was not great last year. I think Wondale could actually have a better than expected game. Maybe some of you is even good enough to be like a number three receiver in full PPR and fantasy. So I like the look here from from up props. You know, you had to bring up Indiana and you see our producer Ben in the chat. He just can't help himself. Come on. I mean, they want a title. I get it. But on this week's college football show Indiana is my team to fade the rest of the year. You know the schedule to joke speaking of a joke, Dave Miami schedule. Give me a break. I mean, can you play any real themes here? The raddlers were playing their second game in five days in Miami's home stadium. I think that that was a huge advantage for them. And we agreed to shorten the game. That was an advantage for them.

35:23They finished the game on a seven or run. 77 to seven. It's not fair. You can't have that. Okay. Now it's time to move on to get going. Probably you guys say more. Go for it. Just while we're on the subject of rushing props. I did want to talk about one guy that I'm taking a close look at and I've been monitoring as the weakest progressed here. I like a lot. I'm very bullish on as far as the seasons concerned. That's Chase Brown. I do like this match up for Chase Brown. Last year, the Bengals ran 120 plays under center. That was by far the fewest in the league by a massive margin. I think the league average is somewhere between 220 and 240. So it's not unrealistic to expect a big jump. I think that'll directly correlate and Chase Brown having more rushing opportunities and having more success with the Bengals being less one dimensional and having a more balanced offense. I think the defense is David. As mentioned, that will also attribute to them being more balanced offensively, but I like Chase Brown props quite a bit this week.

36:30Bit of a difficult match up against the Bucks, but the Bucks were down the stretch for a favorable match up. They're more healthy heading into the season with Vita Vea playing, but I do like Chase Brown quite a bit this week. As Ben just said in the chat, we will get to your prop questions after we do our quarterbacks and our best bets. And now it's time for the Uncle Dave portion of the program. We're on to quarterbacks and I'm going to guess they're not very many overs. And let's start. Let me just talk to talk to you about the Browns and the Jaguars. Let's start with Trevor Lawrence. Now, Gameflow should probably not be in Trevor Lawrence's favor in terms of a high scoring back and forth game. So what do we do with them, Dave? You're going to take the other on his completions under 20 and a half completions minus one nineteen. And I initially started considering the under on his pass attempts. I pivoted to this because Cleveland's defensive backs are still good enough to make plays on the ball. Maybe they can erase a couple of completions.

37:31Lawrence is under this total intent of 17 games last year. Those were games where he didn't leave early. Of those ten eight were wins. I think they're going to beat the Browns. I think they're going to handle the Browns. I think we're going to see them run the ball a lot in the second half, which will take past attempts off of Trevor Lawrence anyway. But I think the completions is actually a sharper number and it's at lower juice. The Cleveland offense is really going to be what puts the Browns in bad shape. Not just this game, but pretty much every game don't have high expectations for them. We already talked about Quinshaw and Junkins and why he's someone to potentially fade. I just don't love the offense. And I think they'll turn the ball over enough to make it easy for Jacksville to put points on the board. Trevor will have a good game. You're going to start him in fantasy. I just don't think he's going to have to throw the ball a ton. I'm more comfortable taking under 20 and a half completions than I am the past attempts number, which is last I saw 32 and a half. All right. See, we've got Lou in the chat and Eric in the chat say, this is your favorite quarterback this year. Do you agree with Dave on playing the under 20 and a half completions?

38:33Yeah, I like this play quite a bit, especially if the Browns are who we think they are behind to Sean Watson. I could be a negative game script. It could be Trevor just kind of addition it to Chris Rodriguez and Bischel Tuten pretty much for the second half. So I'm and also Trevor's not, you know, the most accurate quarterback in the world. I'm not trying to really go there too hard on Trevor. But yeah, I think this is a I would actually prefer the completions under versus the attempts. Broppy, let's talk about your play speaking of attempts Kyler Murray makes his Vikings debut against my Packers who I am not bullish on this year as we talked about in the preview show last week. Do we think it's going to be a firefight here? Are we just going to have touchdowns galore or is this going to be one of those slow plotting running games? What do you make Kyler Murray this week? Yeah, I think it's a sharp look to fade in going under 32 and a half passing attempts, which is available. I'm also comfortable playing this at 31 and a half passing attempts.

39:33I like this for a variety of reasons, first and foremost, Green Bay being a significant run funnel both historically. The short term that's always been the case with the screen Bay defense over the last couple of years last last year they were the third biggest run funnel in the NFL. I think that's likely going to be a conservative game plan and a game that projects to be competitive with Kevin O'Connell and Kyler Murray debuting under center. I think the reports were largely mixed regarding Kyler Murray throughout the off season. I just don't think that they want to overly expose Kyler Murray. I also think if you look at his personal track record, he averages significantly fewer pass attempts in wins compared to losses. I don't think you want Kyler Murray dropping back 35 plus times over the course of a game. So look at this matchup again, Green Bay being a significant run funnel, making his first start under center.

40:33I don't think Kevin O'Connell wants to really have Kyler Murray throwing the ball 40 plus time this game projects to be very competitive. So I like fading Kyler Murray. I look at the completions as well, but I think the attempts certainly provide the most value here as far as I'm concerned. This is one of my favorite looks on the board this week. And we love hearing that one of your favorite looks. That's another one in the proper dictionary. See what do you make Kyler Murray this week? I really like this play. I think this is a really interesting game because I'm not exactly sure what we're going to see from the Green Bay offense, not just from the running back position, but just with Jordan Love and the air attack with different wide receivers to throw to at least maybe a more condensed wide receiver group to throw to. The Kyler Murray thing is really interesting. I agree. I think it could be a big Jordan Mason game. I think they're going to again probably try to protect Kyler Murray to the extent they can not really have him air it out in this game. So I think this is a really good look. Uncle Dave, let's stick with passing attempts. Now this is something that I never played until you introduced me to this category a few years ago. Now it's kind of like this is kind of fun to project it. You have an under with Aaron Rogers. Now we know that two and a tug of a Lola is out. We have Cooper Rush starting for the Falcons. It's not great.

41:52I think we're going to see a lot of running from the Steelers with the Rico Dattled Jalen Warren to head monster. I'm guessing you're in agreement with me. Yeah, I mean, you're basically making the argument for me. So I appreciate you doing my work for me. Of course, it's a it's a new offense for the Steelers. It's not new for Aaron Rogers. He's worked with Mike McCarthy before, though it's been a long time. I'm thinking they're going to aim to be conservative, slow-ish paced, not necessarily getting the ball moving and playing with up tempo. That should be easy for the Steelers to do against Atlanta, who I think has the worst pass rush in the league for now. They're going to get one of their young pass rushers back at the midpoint in the season. But for now, it's bad. And I think that front seven can be beat up pretty badly by the run. And that just means that there's going to be less work for Rogers to do. It is a cherry on top that Cooper rush is going to start for the Falcons. It would have been okay if it were to a tongue of ILOA. I would have actually been maybe a shade nervous. That Atlanta would have kept up in this game if it were Michael Penex because he's a little bit more of a gunslinger. And I'm not saying Aaron Rogers is going to do nothing in the game. I'm saying he's not going to have to do a lot in this game.

43:01So put me down for the under. I got it at 31 and a half. I would play it down to 29 and a half. It's my favorite proper the week. Favorite proper week. Go ahead, see ya. Okay. First of all, I love this one as well. And I love this market, passing attempts, completions. I think this is a great market to exploit. We did it a lot last year as well. My corollary to that. And I want to ask Dave what he thinks here. Because there's a very confusing running back situation with the Steelers in terms of who's going to get the lion's share? Could be 50-50. I don't know. That's what it's projected to be. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dattle. I kind of like taking both of their rush attempts over one is 11 and a half in Rico's case. The other 10 and a half in Jaylen Warren's case. I like Rico's a little bit better even though he's not listed as the RB one day. What are your thoughts there? Because if this game goes like I think it will because I do think they can run on this Atlanta Falcons front. And I think they're going to be playing from the lead. I think both guys can get there. I think so too. And there could be an opportunity in the fourth quarter where they're both sitting and somebody else is getting the reps. So you have to worry about that. But I don't mind the idea of playing both overs and hoping that they both come in.

44:04It's certainly going to be game script dependent. If you're asking me which one I would take, it would actually be Dattle over Jaylen Warren. The two of them were very comparable in rushing and receiving efficiency. And that's notable because I think a lot of people look at Jaylen Warren and they say, this dude's an awesome pass catcher. And he is. So is Rico Dattle. The one difference that I found between them statistically was who played better inside the five? Who had the better success rate inside the five? And Rico Dattle blew Jaylen Warren away. It doesn't mean that Jaylen Warren isn't going to get carries inside the five. But if I'm thinking like Mike McCarthy's thinking and that's a big if Rico Dattle will be in there and he could get a few extra punches into the end zone in this game. Robbie would also offer both Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers historically have played at one of the slowest paces in the NFL. So I also think that works in days favor here. A match made in heaven once again to watch a Mike McCarthy elderly Aaron Rogers duo. Just what we all want, especially for fantasy football.

45:10I don't know if that's heaven out of that's heaven. It's definitely not, but that's a euphemism there. All right, damn, I'm going to stick with you. You have a prop going against C is commanders. What are we doing with Jaylen hurts this week? It's against C is commanders and with proper rules, Eagles. I'm going to take the under on Jaylen hurts his past attempts. I got it at 29 and a half minus 125. A little juicy. I know the Eagles will want to unveil their new offense and put the ball in the air a little bit more. And I'm kind of excited to see what they do moving to this green Bay West Coasty type of offense, but the one thing that they absolutely are going to do, especially while they're offensive lines healthy. Well, say Juan Barkley's healthy is run the damn ball. And you know what else they're going to do. They're going to have Jaylen hurts run the ball as well. And I think that that's something that we've heard about in the news. I think we're going to see it in this game. I love sunny styles for Washington. God, I'm on one of my dynasty teams. Think he's going to be a stud. He is surrounded by a lot of mediocrity, especially on the defensive line for the commanders. And so I see that Philly offensive line. I see the commanders front seven and outside of styles. I would imagine that the Eagles are going to try and run the ball and not put too much on the play of Jaylen hurts and I don't think they have to because I think they're going to be able to control the game with the run.

46:29And then come away winning this game. Commanders may be keeping it close enough, but not enough for them to put Jaylen hurts in the position where he's going to throw the ball 30 plus times. I will take the under and I would consider it at under 28 and a half also. See, Rick and the chat. I got I will do questions later, but this is a good one. Jayden Daniel's interception as a lock. He says we know that Eagles have a great secondary. What do you say? Well, so for me, it's very rare for me to bet on an interception prop. I just think there's just too much variance in those. But yeah, this one does seem like the Washington's probably going to have to push the ball down the field, force the ball down the field against the good defense. I could see one or two getting away from Jayden Daniel. So I don't hate it. It's just not something I would bet. This is also a team in the commanders that has a new offense and they're moving to a West Coast offense. And it's something very different from what Jayden Daniels has done not just in the NFL, but even in his days at LSU. It's just not the same thing. So I expect there to be some bumps along the way. This is not the right defense for him to debut against because they can get after him. They do have a ballhawking secondary.

47:35I especially don't like it. If Jonathan Bernard suits up for the Eagles, and I'm still looking for an update on that. I think there's a chance he plays. If he plays that makes it worse for Jay Nails, if he doesn't, still not great. But I definitely stayed away from the unders on Jay and Daniels because I think he will end up throwing a decent amount in this game. So I think that's a very good copy. Oppine on your Eagles. I think there's a massive mismatch in this game that Dave highlighted and that's Washington's offensive line versus the Philly Front 7. By all accounts, this commander's offensive line might be the lead worse. So I think the Eagles have a dominant front 7 and they're particularly strong up front in the middle. This could be a really rough game for the Washington offense. Let me give you guys one of my favorite props this week. I think it is a steal. We'll see if you guys agree. Malik Willis over 39 and a half rushing yards for the awful Miami dolphins because they're going to be the worst team in the league. But in six career starts, Willis is over this line in five of them only missing his first ever start in 2022 against the Texans. So we'll forgive him for that.

48:43He's had 40 43 73 41 and 60 in those games. But just look at last year when he played for Green Bay came on in relief of Jordan love against Chicago on December 20th 10 carries 44 yards and half the game. The next week against Baltimore when Green Bay was in chase mode nine rushes for 60 yards. And while the Raiders defense has been upgraded from last season, Miami's receiving core is not that. I do like Chris Bell. I'm going to say that. And I think there's a piece is Caleb Douglas fine. But look for Willis to talk it and run at least six times, which seems to be the floor in his previous starts. I think he tops 45 rushing yards. And I am all over this prop this week. Uncle Dave, are you with me for or against Malik Willis is rushing yards. I think you can help but before it, I think it's going to be a humongous part of what the dolphins do. I think they're going to try and control the clock as best as they can with the run game. And I actually think that Malik will is a halfway decent, thrower and he knows how to do the RPO game as well as the zone read game.

49:43Definitely comes into effect here in this matchup against the Raiders. You just have to hope that they don't fall behind early in this game. I think it helps that powers doesn't play for that to happen. This could be an ugly game, certainly not one that people outside of Vegas in Miami and honestly even in Miami aren't looking forward to seeing. But I do think Malik Willis can get out there and do what he does best and one of those things certainly is running the ball. It is time for our best bet of the week before we get to your questions in the chat. Our best bets. See, I talked about this one earlier when you brought it up. I was so excited. I jumped the gun to mention O'Marion Hampton. Tell us about him. Yeah, O'Marion Hampton over 65 and a half rushing yards. This just is a volume play and a game script play for me and a bad defense that he's going up against in the Arizona Cardinals. So I think we're going to see 15. Actually, I think we're going to see closer to 16 or 17 carries, which is why I leaned to his over Russia temps. But I think he's going to have his way with this Arizona defense over the course of 15 or 16, 17, maybe Russia temps. I think he gets to 70 yards. Probably gets in the end zone as well.

50:47Again, I don't think Mike McDaniel is going to pull out all the stops against this Arizona defense. He doesn't have to give the ball to O'Marion Hampton behind a relatively healthy offensive line and let him do work. See, I'm going to take it a step further. I think O'Marion Hampton gets closer to 100 yards and 65. What do you think about that? Sure. Listen, I think the sky's the limit. I think this is a really interesting game on a lot of different fronts and a lot of people like the chargers and they like the chargers not because of their defense necessarily. They like the chargers because of the offensive line. Mike McDaniel, the quarterback, but specifically the running game. So I don't hate it at all. I like the chargers to win the AFC. Yeah, I'm probably crazy, but I'll stick with it. Uncle Dave, you mentioned your favorite prop of the week is something with Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, Aaron Rodgers and the under. But if you want to talk about the chargers, I got one for you. That's here. Justin Herbert under 21 and a half rushing yards. Oh, it's tough to envision a game script where he's going to be pressured and scrambling and nearly all of his rushing yards last year.

51:52And he had almost 500 rushing yards last year were on scramble. So if he's cool in the pocket, that offensive line is the healthiest. It's been in two years. Cardinals defense isn't that great at getting to the quarterback. He's going to be able to pick them apart. And so while my Rodgers prop is definitely my favorite under Herbert under 21 and a half rushing yards minus 11 mind you. So that's pretty decent. I'd like that one a lot too. Herbert will throw well in this game, but it'll run very little fair enough. And I missed that one, but you get two best bets, Uncle Dave. So I like that one. I haven't given it out yet. I'm so excited to give this one out. It's my kicker prop for week one. Propy, I know in the past you've told me that historical data means little from previous years. However, I have a stat for you that I have to differ in the last two seasons. And Texans have scored 23 points against Buffalo and Kaimi Ferra Baron in each of those games has made three field goals and two extra points. So I am playing his over seven and a half kicking points at minus 120.

52:52And I saw this on a sports book yesterday at even money, the better price you can find it. Go with it. I played over eight and a half. I played over nine and a half. That's how confident I am. Ferra Baron in 15 games last season had 48 field goal attempts. Do you really trust that CJ Stroud is going to be able to get it done in the red zone? No, he stalls. That's what the Texans do. And that's why Kaimi Ferra Baron is such a weapon. Now, Propy, you have four picks to choose from of your favorite that we just gave out of our best bets. You have Uncle Dave's Aaron Rogers under passing attempts. You have his under Justin Herbert rushing yards and you have see his over Omerian Hampton rushing yards and my Kami Ferra Baron over in kicking points. Which way do you lean after hearing about fair bears? It's just incredible recent results against the bills. I mean, how can you not make that a multi-unit play that's there we go. One of the best arguments I've heard for a proff and I don't know how long. So yeah, amazing look. You see love the historical data there.

53:57I probably I know when I tried to pull this with you with Derek Henry the other year and I said he owns the Texans or something like that. And you said, what is it matter? What he did five years ago. I can't help it with Kami Ferra Baron. All right. So there we are recapping our favorite props week one Kami Ferra Baron over seven and a half kicking points for me at minus 120. Uncle Dave his favorite Aaron Rogers under 31 and a half passing attempts at minus 102 and for see I love this one. Amari and Hampton over 65 and a half rushing yards at minus 120. Now it's the part of the show where we get you guys involved. We have a bunch of questions in the chat. And so we're going to go rapid fire. See I'm going to start with you because you call my alma mater. The University of Arizona week whenever you can. I'm going to ask you about Teterola Macmillan who came from the University of Arizona over under 60 and a half receiving arts. Oh, that's tough. I would probably take the under there. You know, I actually think Caroline is going to be pretty competitive in this game. I don't think we're going to see as much from the bear's offense like we expect partially because they're on the road here.

55:00I think what that means is that Carolina probably keeps it close to the vest again, probably protects Bryce young and week one hits you with the running back combo. John Brooks is playing. So I think Tedrow could have a good game or Ted row X, he's made could have a good game, but it's just not something I'm interested in taking because I don't know how much work he's going to need to get. I don't think there's going to be some huge negative game script for Carolina. I actually love it. I actually love it. I would take the over. I think Chicago's got some problems on defense. They've got one great corner. They don't usually travel and they're talking about using Macmillan in the slot more. That's a real tough spot for Chicago to be in because their normal slot corner is Kyla Gordon and he's not playing in this game. So they're either going to go with I think it's Cam Lewis or rookie Malik Muhammad in the slot. And I think Tedrow could like dominate those guys and that's an easier throw for Bryce young to make too. So one of my favorite overs this week was and this isn't an official play not putting on the site and I want to get it right.

56:01So I'm scrolling down in my notes to find it, but it's Jalen cocker over 39 and a half yards at minus 115. I kind of look at him through that same lens that I looked at Devon Vela earlier. Kind of an under the radar player. People don't talk about him enough, but he's an important part of what his team does. And so I like that. Coco over. I think he's the one being the Carolina past game. And I think the Panthers win. I know I have it right now on CBS that I've got Chicago winning. I'm changing that I think Carolina wins. I can see it. I like cocker better than Ted row just throwing that out between the two more you have a hate from you see. I mean, you just think you can't help it. Eight my hate my wild cats in all forms. That's okay. I'll forgive you this time. A property. Crispin in the chat. This is a good one who likes bees on Robinson over four and a half get catches it plus 105 with Cooper rush starting. Oh, you're on me. I really like him a lot. Oh, proper. Your voice. Not something I'd rush out to play now. Beige on obviously massive impacts in the passing game as well.

57:09But, you know, four and a half receptions. That's just a big chunk. Likely going to be limited passing volume in this game. I also think it's a game environment where doesn't lend itself to a lot of volumes. So I look for a better game environment personally. If I'm backing even running back a challenge that is be Jean to make a big impact in the receiving game. And then, a kale Davenport in the chat did did my work for me. I was going to ask you about Tyler Algier and he did it here over 28 and a half rushing yards with Jeremiah love a game time decision for the Cardinals. You can take it if you want to for a fraction of a unit, but I don't love it. I don't think he's going to be the one on the field. I think the Cardinals are chasing points late in the game. I think he's got a specific role as a physical grinder. Some of them I work at the goal line. I'd be curious to know what is touchdown prop is in case the Cardinals accidentally get near the goal line in this game against the Chargers. I think they're going to give love plenty of work. And I would imagine that Jeremiah love while he might not be at 100% can still make an impact in the game, both as a Russia and a pass catcher. I don't love the idea of Algier here.

58:21Robbie, do you look good carrying the pizza boxes? We are we are we we overanalyze everything. We're we're overanalyzing Jeremiah love carrying the boxes into an airplane. I kind of feel like this is like a personal feeling. I never talked about this on on fantasy football today. I feel like we overanalyze love when he was playing in the preseason game because he did his damage against the Raiders backups in that first preseason game. And I think people lost sight of that doesn't mean they's a bad player. I think he's going to be an awesome player. I'm just a little bit nervous about expecting too much to soon from him and I'm really nervous trusting in anything Cardinals run game related specifically and that's why I'm kind of nervous about taking an over on out. I wouldn't take the under. I just would not play. I overdrafted Jeremiah love in my big league this year and I'm regretting it already and I already knew his heart so is a mistake but good. I'm a I may be out of contention at the way at the rate I'm going to house out Josh Jacobs by the way.

59:27On go Dave when do we expect to see I probably should ask the attorney see on this one do you expect to see Josh Jacobs play for the Packers this year. I do and you would see on this one but I'm guessing. It's a special fourth coming and it will be in the neighborhood of six to eight games. See what do you make a Josh Jacobs I you're the attorney you you give us the break it down for us. Yeah I to be honest with you I didn't because of the football the last two days I didn't really look at the implications of moving up the court date and his latest plea and all of that. So I'd have to look into that but I I think based on what I do know six to eight games sounds about right to me. All right fair enough property what do you think of Brian Thomas this year that was a question from Drew early in the chat. We know you're big on Parker Washington Brian Thomas 38 and a half receiving arts this week that feels criminally low. It does but just unable to get on the same page for Trevor Lawrence we've seen Parker Washington really emerge as a top target.

1:00:28We've also seen Jacobi Myers is a really reliable target as well so there's just not a lot of targets up for grabs in the Breton Steve strange to so just yeah there's a lot of Iowa pass catchers in Jacksonville's offense. And then Thomas kind of being somewhat of a one dimensional downfield threat right now just makes his stat lines highly volatile so just not an environment game environment necessarily against Cleveland where I'm going to be looking to back. Attack on the corners at the browns have densal grapes remitter corners. Yeah I think that's just going to make it harder this could be a game where Brian Thomas just gets his cardio in. Cardio game that's a James and William special I think maybe not this week. He's not going to have as many of those this year as he had last. Oh that guy is the king of cardio games are you the bullish on J.M.O. are you really. Yeah. Oh my god. He's a guy that lines offense looks to me like it's going to be absolutely prolific from a volume standpoint.

1:01:33I think J.M.O. I'm on Ross St Brown to a lesser extent same Laporta obviously junior Gibbs and Jared golf are just going to just go bonkers both this season this week and just yeah from extremely high on J.M.O. I see a speaking of cardio games here's a guy that has definitely had some of those in his few years in the league. Quentin Johnston and he is is over unders what 42 and a half yards according to Jacob crater minus one 15 where do you stand on him this week. You know if there was a first half line on Quentin Johnston in terms of his receiving yards I probably be more attracted to that because they will get the passing game going early for sure. I just wonder how much work these receivers get throughout the four quarters this line does seem very low and as much as we like Lad McConkey there's a handful of tight ends that they're going to lean on. I do think QJ has definitely stepped it up I would lean to the over here but for me it's just a little too speculative so it would be a stay away. All right Dave last question I'm going to ask from the chat Kyler Murray over 22 and a half rushing yards from our guy Matt.

1:02:36I like the under on Kyler's past attempts so I'm going to take the under on this one too I know that this is part of Kyler's DNA running the ball and I you know what I didn't look at this line before the show and seeing it here now makes me think that this is a red flag because normally I think people would expect way more in terms of rushing from Kyler Murray. This number just seems low and when something's too good to be true it usually is I know that I get pushed back from property every year on this but I it's just one of those core beliefs I have the prop landscape is so massive the books are responsible the odds makers are responsible for putting out literally tens of thousands of lines and a very short period there's going to be so many oversights so I would implore our viewers when things are too good to be true it's not the case. They're usually inefficient or just massive oversights in the prop market having the most inefficiencies because it's the largest landscape by a wide margin.

1:03:36I've got I've got the granard injury update he's not going to play for the Eagles so that actually helps Washington a little bit. Congrats. Yeah. I read that in the joint practices between Baltimore and Washington that their offensive line was not functional like to the point where I looked just completely overmatched I do really worry about that in this match. Even without Jonathan Bernard, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis are an absolute load up front so I think it's a tough match up for the Washington offensive line here. A year ago at this time I'd come back from Chicago's joint practice against Buffalo and their offensive line couldn't even get coordinated enough for snaps at times like they were a total mess and then it up being one of the best offensive lines in the league last year. So just because a line is bad now and I agree with you the commander's offensive line is not a strength but it's not a strength right now.

1:04:39I would not be surprised if we get to the middle of the season and they're an average offensive line. Can I ask Dave a quick question because he's so close to Miami. Dave, when we're talking about the Miami dolphins maybe it's from a fantasy perspective maybe a DFS like low level low price guy we're going to be talking about Malik Willis I might play in this week. We're going to be talking about H&N obviously who's the third guy that we might be talking about in this offense by week four or five. Chris Bell. Yeah. I think he's the rookie from Louisville I know that EC knows all about him. He was awesome at Louisville and he I'm not going to say he looked awesome in the preseason game but I thought that he was showing off some pretty good acceleration towards ACL at Louisville. I think it was in November and came back and worked his way up didn't get on the populace or maybe he didn't they took him off. He's good to go now and I think he's the best receiving talent. Have and just make sense to me that he's going to get some opportunities to attack down field. They'll give him some screens too. He's a big dude and he can when he gets space he can accelerate he's going to be excited.

1:05:45I think we're going to try one thing here on the take the points NFL player prop show we need a parlay and we're all going to contribute to see it give me one player who's going to score a touchdown this Sunday. Oh, like at any time touchdown anytime touchdown. Well, I'm going to make it easy on me. Oh, Marian Hampton. Marian Hampton uncle Dave give me your anytime touchdown player this week. Can I just it can literally be anybody anybody. All right, Jameer Gibbs. Oh, I mean take a prop and give me some because those guys give me chalk. Can you give me some because I got a three to one shot in here. What do you have for me, prop? I love Hampton. But yeah, give me Rico Dattle. Rico Dattle. See, that's my con see that's what I'm talking about. I am going to throw in Jalen cocker. So we're going to I'm going to you might lose. Well, no, we're doing we're doing a four leg parlay. So this if you put Gibbs and Hampton and Dattle and cocker together, that's plus 1687.

1:06:48I'm going to give me post in Loveland instead. You want you want Colston Loveland instead. I'm in there. You see, I mean, so listen, I didn't know this was coming. If you want me to throw an obscure guy, I'll go Ryan Flornoy. I'll give Chris Rodriguez Jr. I mean, guys, this we're going. What are the odds? Are we talking about like 100 to one? Can we do this? This is out of the one if we go with. If we're if we're doing this at. And so if we're going to have a six leg parlay, by the way, if you really want to have fun with this. And you just want to put a buck down. So let's let's recap here. You ready for the we have cocker Hampton Gibbs. Loveland Chris Rodriguez and Rico Dattle. That's a six legged at nearly 129 to one. Pays to what? Just 129. I was going to guess. We're more than that. Yeah. 129 to one. There you go. All right, guys, this is a rich and for a buck on this or what? Well, wait, it was Flornoy in on that. You took it out. Oh, no, Flornoy was not. Sorry, I forgot. No, no, take him out. No, no, take him out.

1:07:48Take him out. We want to win. Yeah. We have a we're going to stick to this starting next week. We're all going to do one at the end of the show. It'll be a four legged and we're going to give it. And we're going to give everybody what they want, which is a four legged parlay at the end of the show. Everyone wants that. Everyone wants that. I think a few people want that. Come on, Chad. Do you want to do a parlay? At a nine. Don't you want to do a parlay? At a nine. So we're giving you parlay pieces. It's just fun. Anytime touched out. It's not a fish. Yeah. Yeah. So at the end of the show next week, we're going to have an official one. This is just kind of a script unscripted thing. Get ready next week. Guys, it's been a great show. You guys in the chat have been on fire. Thank you so much for all of your contributions. Ben behind the scenes. Killer does always the best in the business for Sia and Propy and Uncle Dave. I am EC. And as I always like to say, let's hit a thing. Let's hit a thing. Good luck. Good luck. Sunday, the NFL on CBS is back with an electrifying week one double hitter.

1:08:51The early slate features Josh Allen in the bills taking on CJ Stroud and the Texans in Houston. Then it's a classic NFC North Battle as Jordan Love and the Packers visit the Vikings. It all kicks off at noon Eastern with the NFL today live in Minnesota. See you Sunday with the NFL on CBS and streaming on Paramount Plus.