CFB Week 1 Recap & 32 in 32: New England Patriots

0:00this is believed one network every topic everywhere. Look for these better days. It is Monday September 7th. I'm Scott Saddenberg. Here's what you need to know to make today a better day. The first full weekend of the college football season wraps up with a Monday night labor day game tonight. We'll talk about the marquee games that we saw yesterday, improved tonight's game. Plus week of the NFL season kicks off on Wednesday with the Super Bowl rematch. We wrap up our 32 in 32 NFL team previews with two more teams this week. Today's team, the New England Patriots on this episode of Better Day presented by Fandall. We start in college football where yesterday we had three standalone games, two neutral site games and the Apple Cup played in week number one Washington did the game. We had two

1:01games in the state, but they did not cover. They get the win 24 to 10 Notre Dame one and covered took care of Wisconsin 4113 a game that was played at Lambo Field and then Louisville Ole Miss was arguably the most exciting game of the weekend. It was the only top 25 matchup that we had over the weekend and Ole Miss with a last second game. There were 16 points scored in the first half. It was a 10 to 6 lead for Ole Miss at the end of the first half. The second half was a completely different story as we had 63 points scored in the second half. The second half went over the full game total by itself and it was like really quickly the way it happened. This game was trending under the entire way and then all of a sudden in like a couple of minutes the under was completely dead as both these teams had quick touchdowns. It was 17 to 16 in

2:04the third quarter when Ole Miss scored on a 62 yard touchdown pass and then just what 16 seconds later, Louisville scored in an on 62 yard touchdown pass and then it was Ole Miss racking up back to back touchdowns taking a 38-24 lead. Louisville cut it to 38-31 and then with about a minute 30 remaining Lincoln Kindholz runs in the game tying touchdown and Ole Miss got the ball next and they milked the clock out, gotten to field goal range, 48 yard field goal for the game winner 41-38, your final. So Louisville now gets added to the list of top 25 teams that did not cover here in week number one. Now why is that list important? Well, I've been giving out this trend all over Twitter. Make sure you guys are following the better day Twitter account because I'll be tweeting out. A bunch of good trends and some trench report teasers. We'll talk about the trench report here in just a moment. But I sent this

3:04tweet out the other day since the start of the 2021 season. College football teams that do not cover in week number one, how do they do in week number two? Well, guess what? They also don't cover in week number two. Since 2021, top 25 teams that don't cover in week one go 16, 29 and one against the spread in week number two. When those teams are favored in week number two, 13, 25 and one against the spread. What this kind of signals to me is that there's an overreaction to these teams not covering in week number one. Week one to week two in both college football and the NFL, I think is a great opportunity to fade the recency bias because we only have one data point to go off of with these teams, right? Just one game. And I know college football sometimes a little different if you have two games like with Florida

4:04State, we have an extra game. So this is week one, but they played already. But you get the point. We only have one data set on these teams. So it's natural for the betting market and the public to overreact to what we see in week number one. And there's different ways that you can overreact. If a team looks really good, then you back them the following week. If a team looks really bad, then you fade them the following week. Those are kind of the natural ways to overreact to just week one. But another way is to assume the bounce back. And how many times do we hear this conversation happening like especially like in NFL circles? Oh, well, the Baltimore Ravens lost in week one. They're not going to lose in week two. They're not going to start Owen to or what was it a couple of years ago? The Bengals aren't going to start Owen three. So clearly, after losing the first two games, we're going to back them in week three, right? So there's that idea where the betting public just has an opinion because they believe that a team is too good to

5:06not cover or too good to not win. And what happens early on with the top 25 in college football is that the people voting for this honestly don't they don't know how good these teams are. You know, we have our projections and we think we know what the teams are going to look like. But until we actually see them play, we don't really know how good they're going to be. Like for instance, Michigan has does watching them play on Saturday and they really lost that game. Let's be honest, I ran it about it enough over the weekend. I'm done with it. But we all know what happened. Michigan and Western Michigan. Michigan does not deserve to be a top 25 team. They are not a top 25 team end of discussion. Anybody that votes them into the top 25 this coming week should have their vote taken away. They are not a top 25 team. At least they certainly did not look like it in week number one. But this is the thing. That little number next to the team's name influences the market. People think that that team is good. And so if that team did not cover in week

6:06number one, whether they lost the game outright or they just didn't cover, there's just a natural reaction from the market that, okay, clearly they have to cover in week number two. Clearly there's going to be a bounce back or a correction from that team. And looking at these numbers and again, 16, 29 and 1 against the spread and 13, 25 and 1 against the spread if they're favored. That shows me that maybe there's a market over reaction or more likely market inflation on these teams because it's baked into the price that there's this assumption of a bounce back. And maybe the public comes in and the sports books are going to make you pay attacks for wanting to back these teams assuming the bounce back in week number two. Now, yeah, you can throw out some of the teams that were 50 point favorites, 40 point favorites, right? And

7:06not look at those teams as teams that failed to cover in week number one. And that's why, you know, we want to fade them week number two. Maybe you only look at the closer games or the teams that underperformed. Like maybe you only look at Oregon who didn't cover against Boise State or Washington who didn't cover against Oregon state in excuse me in a against Washington state in kind of close games. But like saying Tennessee six to nine and that like changes our opinion on on Tennessee it doesn't. Okay. But here are the teams that did not cover in the top 25 in week number one. And we should be on the lookout here in week number two. Oregon, Indiana, Houston, Missouri, Texas, tech, Tennessee, Michigan. And then yesterday it was Washington and Ole Miss because Louisville covered as the six and a half point duck. I would tell you right now, uh Oregon laying 22 and a half on the road in still water against

8:06an O and one Oklahoma state team that did not look good in their first game. That might be a dangerous spot. Oklahoma state might be the play with that many points in that game. We've already seen the line steam on Michigan Oklahoma. Michigan obviously was the disaster should have lost to western Michigan. Uh and they were one and a half point in the league's in that game in the look ahead line. Now Oklahoma up on Fandall is a six point favorite. So they were one and a half point favorite. Now they are a six point favorite as there has been a clear reaction or over reaction if you will to the Michigan performance. Um maybe I mean I don't I'm not betting Michigan. I just can't I thought price on there would look terrible his mechanics are terrible. Um I wouldn't be surprised if there's a possible quarterback change and maybe Tommy will be the one who's going to get the ball. So I'm not going to get the ball. I'm not going to get the ball. I'm not going to be

9:06getting over at some point here in Ann Arbor for Kyle Wittingham. But seeing the market move that much, it almost really begs you to take Michigan plus the points. It's very rare that Michigan is that big of a dog. Um at home. It's only happened 14 times going back to 1995 in the database. And uh most of the time it's against Ohio and the Texas Texas Tech. Um Texas Tech. Um and Texas Tech teams that did not cover Washington laying 26 and a half at home against Utah State. I don't know if I want to back Utah State, but that could be something to take a look at. Tennessee is laying 13 and a half at Georgia Tech. But I talked about Tennessee is kind of not being that team because we shouldn't really change our opinion just because they, you know, the 33 to 10 was the final and this week they have to go to Corvallis to play a tough night game at Oregon State. And we've seen teams have a difficult time playing the late game there in

10:07Corvallis. What was it? Was it last year when I think Houston went there and had to come back and force over time and and one and over time? Maybe Texas Tech could be on eating I'm not saying upset alert, but they're laying 26 and a half points at Oregon State. I think it's a very saddening day. Maybe that's one where we kind of look towards the beavers. We'll have more college football conversation coming up a little bit later on this week, but a very, very interesting week one weekend yesterday was very, very interesting watching those games play out and we have one more game tonight to wrap up week number one of the college football season and speaking of an over six-year-old school state SMU up on Fandall a two and a half point favorite to tonight total of 53 and a half. I would lay the two and a half with SMU. And the reason being is Florida state allowed New Mexico state to

11:07pass all over them last week. That was what was concerning to me in reviewing that game. 272 passing yards for New Mexico state against the state. That's a lot. And if you look at the defensive side of the ball, what was it? Three sacks, okay, for Florida state. So they got after the quarterback just a little bit, but still tray head and 26 of 42, 272 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Kevin Jennings and SMU should be able to throw all over this Florida state team tonight. And I think that's going to be the difference in tonight's game is the passing game of SMU against Florida state. Taking a look at the trench report up on BetterDay.com, which had a very, very successful week one in college football. Looking at tonight's

12:07matchup between Florida state and SMU, the biggest edge in the game SMU does have a sizeable edge in the trenches, but the edge in the trenches is a very good edge in the game. So if SMU is passing blocking, holds up, and they give Jennings plenty of time to pass the football, I think there might be a play on Jennings to go over passing yardage. I think they're just, I mean, there's just a play on SMU to be honest with you for tonight's game. So SMU minus two and a half. Maybe it's a Jennings passing yardage prop, but the first one is one and a half minus one forty to the over. I don't hate going over one and a half passing touchdowns at minus one forty passing yards is two sixty four and a half. And again, I think it's a number that he could eclipse given that Florida state allowed a tray head of New Mexico state to pass for 272 yards. So I would lean towards both of those

13:07overs with Kevin Jennings and SMU minus two and a half and a half. So I would lean towards the top of the state. Alright, let's get into our 32 in 32 NFL team preview of the New England Patriots. We have two teams left in our 32 teams in 32 shows. They are the Super Bowl participants who will face off in a suitable rematch coming up on Wednesday. Patriots and the Seahawks. We do the Patriots today. We'll do the Seahawks coming up tomorrow to wrap this thing up Patriots with a half minus one thirty five to the over and to break down the Patriots yesterday on my visa show on live bet Sunday. I had the opportunity to speak to my good friend Christopher Price who covers the Patriots for the Boston Globe. We talked about the injury report that came out yesterday and we talked about my concerns about the preseason lack of snaps for Drake May and other quarterbacks that we like to fade in week number one.

14:07And that's where I think the focus is on the issue. I don't know, Mike. Here's my conversation with Christopher Price of the Boston Globe from yesterday's live bet Sunday show on Vison. I saw a little bit of news today with the Patriots releasing their injury report. Traveys on Henderson didn't practice. What's the latest here going into Wednesday's game. Yeah, he took a spill on the practice field on August 24th and he hasn't been around since then. that it is said not as serious as people are expecting it to be at least right now. And a lot of ways a lot of people I think are looking at this precautionary thing, just you want to get them as fresh as possible for the preseason opener. I also think too, Scottie, I think this is really important. When you talk about the Patriots this year, we're going to have to get comfortable with the fact that some guys are going to mispractice as late in the week because Brable is doing this load management thing with a lot of guys because he's worried about the depth on the roster. Guys like AJ Brown, guys like Morgan Moses, guys who've been around for a little bit.

15:08So I think this also might fall into that umbrella, but it's going to be interesting to see what happens if he doesn't go. It's going to be a reminder of Stevenson show, basically if he doesn't show. So speaking of that load management idea, Drake May did not play in the preseason, Chris. And it's one of the things that I look for when I'm going to prepare my week one analysis. Is I like to fade quarterbacks that did not play in the preseason in week number one. Now are there outliers? Sure, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen combined for 81 points last year. Okay, but they're also veterans that might not need any preseason time. What went into the decision to not play Drake May at all this preseason? They had a couple of really spirited joint practices. They had one workout with the Indianapolis Colts. They had a pair of workouts with the Eagles and those practices really showed my Brable that he's good to go for the regular season. I think it's a little surprising. And again, I think it kind of falls into that load management stuff. You want to kind of guard guys against themselves for lack of a better term. But yeah, I think he's good to go.

16:09I think they got in a lot of really good work, a lot of simulated game conditions. They got a chance to look at a lot of guys in the preseason that maybe wouldn't necessarily get a run in the preseason. It's not just Drake May. There's a handful of Patriots on both sides of the ball who did not take a single snap in the preseason. So I think it's going to be fascinating to see, but I think holding the lead is going to work out for knowing it's going to work out for me in the long run. But there's a little bit of concern, I guess for me, Chris, because when you bring in a new number one wide receiver in AJ Brown, right? A guy who, you know, he commands the ball. He rightfully so should get the football. He's in dynamic target and frable. Obviously familiar with him from the days in Tennessee. But I feel like I need to see live game action for my quarterback and number one wide receiver to get into a rhythm. Am I wrong to be hesitant that to like in week one? I don't know if the connections going to be like as strong as it's going to be later in the season. So maybe it's like an under on AJ Brown props in week number one. Am I wrong to want to fade that?

17:10There is a legitimate sense of. Tennis is about this, this connection in particular. I do think that I will say this that over the course of the summer and over the course of training camp. I don't know if it's just because he had a couple more weeks with him because they acquired him in the infre agency. But the made dobs connection has been very impressive. I will I will buy in on your thoughts about AJ Brown about being cautious on him early, at least from a pure numbers perspective. I still think he's going to have an impact on Wednesday night. But I think from a pure number from a statistical standpoint, I think you're better off going with Romeo dobs, at least in the early going because he has been absolutely dynamite. When working with Drake, may again, and he's joined practices over the course of training camp over the course of OTA. He has a little bit more of a body of work with a quarterback. So I think that's really going to kind of show on Wednesday night. Chris, what's going to look different in this game from what we saw a couple of months ago in the Super Bowl? I think the passing game is far superior to one that left the field at the end of Super Bowl 60.

18:13We mentioned Romeo dobs. I think it's been absolutely tremendous. I think also too, you know, you want to talk about a reminder, Steven's reminder, Steven says, he has to be the first danger running back since James White to go for, I think it's 30 plus catches four years in a row. He's a talented pair of hands out of the backfield. I think he's the guy you want to look for on Wednesday. Also, obviously, EJ Brown, again, I don't think the numbers are going to be, you know, are going to necessarily blow you away right out of the gate. But I think he's going to be a long term impact kind of a guy. Just the passing game, the way it operates, the crispness of it, it's been very, very impressive over the course of the spring in the summer. And so look, if they're able to keep those five offensive linemen completely healthy and will come a coming back off of the knee injury that really dogs him really led in a lot of ways to his poor performance in the Super Bowl. That group is pretty good. And if they can hold up long enough to be able to give Drake me time to operate, I think that's going to be the biggest thing. The passing game. It took a quantum leap forward this off season with the addition of guys like with the addition of guys like Brown and dobs.

19:16And I think that's really going to bear out over the course of the regular season. Interesting. What has been the conversation about, you know, from a defensive perspective preparing for this Seahawks team. I know Sam Darnel didn't play as well in the preseason, neither did Jadarian Price. The star running back from Notre Dame, who is taking over for Kenneth Walker. So it's going to be a little bit of a different look from an offensive perspective from the Seahawks, then what the Pat saw in the Super Bowl a couple of months ago. So what's been the conversation about how to defend Seattle in this game? There's a lot of uncertainty within the offensive coordinator. Obviously, you know, you still have some elements in place. Sam Darnel, JSN, but there's a new running back. You know, they really had their problems with Kenneth Walker and the Super Bowl. And I so I think if you're a patriot, say, and you feel relatively good about swapping him out for rookie, you buying a pretty good offensive line like that. But again, there's a real sense of uncertainty unknown here. Just because, you know, you're stepping into week one, you don't know what you don't know about your own team until. You know, the real game start, but there's also again, there's that change when it comes to Seattle's offensive coordinator things are going to be a little bit different, not dramatically different, but things are going to be a little bit different.

20:23And so it's going to be interesting to see if the Patriots can hold up against that. I think the Patriots are really good front 14. They don't have much of a pass rush, but they have an excellent combination on the back end. Gonzalez have admired it's a really good secondary Marcus Jones. So you don't get so much of a pass rush, but I think that that secondary is going to keep him. It's going to keep things competitive on Wednesday night. Let's just say that. No, it's going to be interesting. I tend to believe it's going to be or I think it's going to be a lower scoring game. I'm curious how the offense is luck, especially as I mentioned with both quarterbacks not playing the preseason, but my early lean strong lean is on the under here on Wednesday. And I plus we know the public loves betting overs when it comes to these stand alone prime time games, Chris. Regardless of the outcome here in week number one, it is a difficult opening stretch for the Patriots this year playing against the Steelers in week number two. But then you got Jacksonville who is a playoff team with aspirations this year.

21:23And then you go to Buffalo. So three of the first four games on the road here and your loan home game is against Aaron Rogers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. What's the Patriots record after the first four games this season? I'm going to say two and two. And I will tell you that they will be there and Rogers and the Steelers at home and they're going to, you know what? They're going to go to Buffalo and win. Easy one is to say Jacksonville. I think that's going to be a good game, but I think they're going to go to Buffalo and win this thing. There is a path for this team this year to ten or eleven wins, but that is a holy dependent on them dominating their division. That is to say they need to go five and one or six and oh, if they want to get to ten or eleven wins. And I think that starts with that first regular season game, that first divisional game in Buffalo against the bills. Yeah, a little bit of a respite. Well, then, then just try to avoid the let down against Vegas the next week. Because we know that could happen. And Chris appreciate the time.

22:23As always, my friend, enjoy the game, safe travels to Seattle and we'll catch up with you as we progress throughout the season here. Sounds good. Scottie, take care. We'll talk soon. All right. There was my conversation with my friend Christopher Price from the Boston Globe. That interview took place yesterday on my Vsyn Show live that Sunday. You guys can catch me on Vsyn by the way on Saturday nights, caching out from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. Eastern as I preview all the NFL games for the following Sunday for the next day. And then on Sunday, I'm on live bet Sunday at seven o'clock Eastern times seven to 10 Eastern where I'll break down everything going on during the late game preview Sunday night football, do a whole first half Sunday night football. You know, live game in live in game betting. So that's where I'll be on the weekends this week here on the better day podcast tomorrow. Michael fiddle will join us in his weekly spot. We will wrap up our 32 and 32 team previews with the Seattle Seahawks David Bairman will then join me on Wednesday. We will get a full preview with building building a same game parlay for the Patriots and the Seahawks.

23:26And then on Thursday morning, Mackenzie Rivers is going to join because not in his normal spot on Mondays. Obviously you've been listening to this whole pod. No Mackenzie Mackenzie will be with me on Thursday morning. We will build the same game parlay for Thursday night football between the Rams and Mackenzie's 49ers. So curious to get Max take on that game. And then coming up Thursday afternoon at two o'clock Eastern time, the better day football show live stream where we will recap the first game of the NFL season preview Thursday night football. Talk about the NFL week one card as well as the weekend in college football, myself, Steve Fesick and AJ Hoffman joining us this week to band back together again. So the better day football show streaming live two o'clock Eastern time on Thursday on the better day YouTube page and on Twitter at better underscore day. Myself Steve Fesick, AJ Hoffman will get you ready for week one in the NFL and week two of college football as a reminder, better day insiders have full access to our trench reports and all the data that we have up on better day.

24:33On better day dot com better day premium members get the picks from our network of contributors. The better day mobile app is available on iOS and Android. I'm Scott side in Burke. Here's hoping you make today and every day a better day. You