CFB Thursday/Friday Bets & 32 in 32: LA Rams

0:00this is believed one network every topic everywhere. Look for these better days. It is Thursday September 3rd. I'm Scott Sidenburg. Here's what you need to know to make today a better day week one of the college football season kicks off tonight. We will get some best bet and leans and also see what the trench report has in store for us. AJ Hoffman joined me on this episode of better day presented by the football team. I have a hand-drawn AJ before we get into the games for tonight's slate we have 10 games on the slate for tonight at the FBS level. How do you handle week zero teams? So the teams that played in week zero, and now they're playing opponents here in week one that have not played a game yet. I know there are certain games that have two teams that already played a game. Like you know you're gonna get what Hawaii and you and teams and now look at their week one matchups. I know that the common thought is,

1:03if they played in week zero, it's some kind of an advantage. I'm not sure I see it that way. I think it's anything preseason, it's good to have more time to hold the cards to your vest and not show exactly what your offense is gonna do. It gives the other team some film to look at. So while a lot of people think, oh, it's great that they've got a game under their belt already, they know what it's like to be out there and be hitting. I think I'd rather be on the other side and sort of know what you've put on the table so far. Especially, some of these games, like when you see a team play a middle of nowhere you, you're not necessarily gonna see all their best stuff. I mean, there's some people who have made a judgment on USC based on the second half of that game, which was like third string USC players out there. I don't know what you can really take away from that. But I do think that it's an advantage if you've been able to see your opponent play. If your opponent has film and you don't, I don't see how there can't be an advantage.

2:03I would take that over the guys who have already felt what it's like to be out there on the field this year. Yeah, it's interesting. I did see a good tweet from our friend Jared Smith who was just documenting, it's funny, because I'll mention the Jared's Weat, but then I also bring up something else. You'll see conflicting reports, right? About some people will say, well, week zero teams against teams that haven't played have this record. And then you'll see one that says, hey, if you go back a certain time, you'll see week zero teams have a worse record against it. But Jared pointed out that since 2023, teams that play in week zero and then are favored the next week against the team playing their first game, eight and oh straight up, six and two against the spread covering by an average of almost 10 points. Now it's just the last three seasons, right? Of a team that hasn't 2023, right? But does that interest you at all?

3:04When you see a team that played in week zero and then is now favored here in week number one against somebody that's not playing their first, that someone that is playing their first game? I guess I'm kind of the opposite. Like I said, I would rather have the points in the film. And the other thing is, you gotta remember that every time you play a football game, your body deteriorates, you lose a guy, somebody's ankle gets stepped on, whatever it is. And I think there is also a mental thing of like you're fired up for the first game of the season. Like any sport you play, the first game of the season just feels special. Like there's an added motivation, you wanna go out there and start one and oh, I kinda dig it. So I'm looking at that and I say that and a little bit later on in the program, when I give you a best bet, it's gonna be a team that played in week zero, although we played it at an FPS level and we didn't know what it was. And they're not favored, so. They're not favored. It's, you know, maybe I'm talking

4:04out of two sides of my mouth here, but yeah, generally I prefer the team that's just, that's gotten to sit back and watch. Yeah, only two teams would qualify for that favorite role this week and that would be USC and Memphis and the Memphis one's interesting because boy, if we see in the market, just steam that number up with how good Margaret Stokes looked in their first game against UNLV, we'll talk about that more coming up a little bit later on this afternoon on the Better Day football show with myself Steve Fesik and Joshua Nunn live streaming at 11 a.m. Pacific time. That is 2 p.m. Eastern time up on YouTube, on the Better Day YouTube channel. Make sure you're subscribed there and on Twitter at Better Under Score Day. Make sure you are following us on Twitter as well. All right, AJ, let's get to the games tonight and let's talk about, let's talk about some of the nationally televised games in the bigger games first. We'll start with the first game of the night and that is on the big 10 network where Rutgers hosts UMass, congratulations to the Scarlet Knights who are named,

5:04they're doing Lana Gring, long girl green as their starting quarterback. They're 29 and a half point favorites tonight over UMass total of 51 and a half. Anytime I see a Rutgers game with a total this high AJ, it just makes me want to go under, but is that the case you think this year for this year a Scarlet Knight squad? Yeah, this is a boy, you got to be a diehard to want to sit down and watch this game quite frankly. You got to, you're a fan, but man, if you're not, this is going to be a tough watch. No, I generally, I'm kind of the same as you, especially when UMass is pretty dreadful. I mean, their own 12 last year was about as disastrous over years they could go. But then you start thinking, well, does that mean there's value on them as 30 point dogs or whatever it is? It's a, it's a, it's one of those tough things to ask because I, I mean, Rutgers didn't average 30 points of game last year. Yeah, it just, doesn't this feel like,

6:05doesn't this feel like 38 nothing, 42 nothing at the most, right? Like I think under is just the way to go tonight. Yeah, I think so too. I think UMass generally has a hard time scoring. I think Rutgers doesn't score a whole lot either. To me, this is probably like a, you know, a 28, 30 to nothing game. And if you, if you get one score out of UMass, I feel like it's almost impossible for them not to cover. I think they feel guilty in this game. If they score just one touchdown. So under and the dog, are my leans in this one? No, I mean, those are always correlated, right? Favorite and so on over on theirs and dogs. The nationally syndicated game tonight, nationally televised on ESPN, Colorado against Georgia Tech, where the yellow jacket's up on Fandals six and a half point favorites and a total of 50 and a half. What do you think happens tonight at Bobby Dodd Stadium? Man, I, I, I like Tech here. I think the numbers just right too. And it's, it's a little scary because I feel like I'm,

7:08I'm, I'm kind of surprised that there hasn't been more tech money coming in. But Dion could happen later today. Dion's got basically a brand new team. Yeah. And you're talking about starting, you know, six or seven transfers on offense. Every starter on defense is new. So I mean, you're out of your, your, your 22 starters, you got 18 new guys. That's pretty wild. And on the other side, you know, even though Georgia Tech's replacing an offensive coordinator, and they brought in some transfers their own. I mean, it's night and day on, on continuity there. I like their defense. They, they, they're returning a lot of production on, on defense. And they added some stuff from the portal. I'm not sure how, how quick this, this offense is going to, going to take form, but Georgia Tech did get one of the top backs in the portal in Justice Haynes. I think he's going to give him an instant boost on offense. And Colorado was so bad against the run last year. But again, all new defense. So how do you, how do you determine that?

8:10I like Tech. I'm not looking to play it anything over seven. But, but while it's six and a half, I, that's, that's the way I would go. What do you think about the total 51 and a half? I think, I think over. I do think that we're going to see, I think, again, with a brand new defense out there for the first time. Yeah, I, you know, 11 guys who have never played together. I mean, even, I don't care how much you've practiced. There's going to be some, some issues out there. There's going to be some communication issues. I think we see, we see quite a few points. I would agree. I think that might be my favorite lean for tonight is just the over, by the way, 50 and a half up on Fandall. Let's talk about some ranked teams in action tonight. Number 25, Missouri is a 54 and a half point favorite over Arkansas. Pine Bluff. This is one where, uh, Mizzouza 54 and a half point favorite with a total of 61 and a half. So you're asking yourself does Arkansas Pine Bluff score or do they not score? And then you have number 21 Utah, a 35 and a half point favorite at home against Idaho with a total of 57 and a half.

9:14And it is the first game for the youths in the post Kyle Wittingham era. They're in Salt Lake City. How do you think this team looks this year? Well, I'll, I'll start with the Missouri thing, uh, just because you mentioned them. And I, I'm kind of curious about their offense. That it's going to be a brand new offense. But, uh, Missouri is, you know, that's a, it's a big number when you consider what's going on next week for, for Missouri. And Missouri is a team with higher expectations than I think maybe they should have. Uh, they had a good recruiting class. I don't know how important recruiting classes are anymore. Uh, it's more about how do you do in the portal than you're recruiting? Uh, you're like, because how often do freshmen really have a major impact at this point? Yeah. But while Kansas isn't great, Missouri, Kansas is a massive rivalry game. It's on the road. It's a game that I would have imagined. Mizzou has circled, uh, as a statement game. So I don't know how much they're going to be willing to show against Arkansas, Pine Bluff.

10:15I, I lean the under in this game, which, I guess, I mean, it's when you, you basically gave the math for us. It makes me want to lean to Arkansas, Pine Bluff. I mean, Arkansas Pine Bluffs dreadful. They, they, they are going to, they're going to look like they don't belong on the field with this Missouri team. And they probably don't, but there's no reason in my mind for Missouri to show a whole lot here. With a rivalry game coming up next week against Kansas. So I'm just curious. If the line, if you are a dog of, let's say, 50 or more, right? And the total is what's the number we want to give out here? So what I say, this one is at, uh, where are we, uh, for 61 and a half? Let's call it, I guess we'll call it 62. Right. I'll just give that number here. Uh, we'll say total is, um, we'll call greater than 60, but less than 62. I don't know. Um, let's see how you do. And then we're threading the needle here. Okay. But get this. All right. We're threading the needle.

11:16Like I said, because we have to have a total that is above 60, but less than 62. In fact, you know what? I'm going to lower that threshold because again, we're threading the needle too much. So I'll say you're a 50 point or at least dog. And the total is, uh, let's see. No, I actually like the other way better. Let's let's spread the needle. Okay. Numbers came out better. Um, get this. You are 0 and 6 against the spread. Oh boy. Yeah. I mean, every nation's every game has gone over. So let's see, 2024, a 70, nothing win for Arkansas over the same Arkansas Pine Bluff team. Uh, you, you had 2023. 72 to 10 LSU overgrabbling. 66 to three Alabama over Western Carolina in 2019. 77 to six Florida state over, has that Delaware state.

12:16I don't even know. Uh, 70 to six BYU over Wagner. Oh my God. Uh, 66 to three Troy over. Is that Savannah state? I don't even know. I was 2013. Uh, if it, it looks like these whole blowouts hold on. Let's try it. Yeah, let's see if it's, uh, what you've said is enough. I'm staying away from the game. I've got no business betting this game. No interest in watching it. Wait, Abby, clearly this is a game where Mizzou can name their number. But like I said, I don't really see much motivation for them to do it with Kansas on deck. I would just be wary of back in the, uh, back in the Tigers here. There you go. All right. Let's talk about Utah. Yeah, this, this is my best bet. And I'm going to be on Idaho here. Uh, Idaho did play a game last week. A, a, a lost, uh, kind of a heartbreaker against Cal Poly. Uh, but this was a, uh, an Iowa team or Idaho team started that, that was a playoff team last year. They got four to their five offensive line starters coming back last season. They, they've got like, you know, a total of, you know, 80 something starts between them.

13:17Uh, and this is one of the, you know, while I say how I say recruiting doesn't matter for, for some of these big time programs for a place like Idaho recruiting really matters. And they got the highest rank recruiting class in their history. Uh, and the second best 2025 class in the FCS period, they brought in 17 three star guys, which for at FCS school, you know, that's, that's a, that's a big deal. Uh, and Idaho, one of three FCS teams to have multiple wins over FBS teams in the last through, uh, two years. They beat Nevada, 33 to six in 2023. They beat Wyoming 17 13 in 2024. And you mentioned with Utah brand new coaching staff. Uh, they, there's a lot that they're going to have to plug in and, and figure out as this thing goes on. And I, I, I always, when you're playing, you know, uh, an FCS school, I always say, okay, what do you have on deck? Well, Utah's got Arkansas on deck, an SEC program on deck that's a big game ahead of them.

14:19Uh, so what's the, what is the purpose for them to run it up? Once Utah dealt with the last couple of years, injuries, why would you want to have your starters out any more than the necessary when you're a team that's kind of been snakebitten, uh, by losing key guys over the last couple of years. I think Utah wants to get in there and get the job done. I think Idaho can hang long enough to keep this close. That'll be my best bet on Idaho. The Vandals, AJ Houghbind going with the Idaho Vandals tonight plus 34 and a half current number up on FANDOL. Total for that game is 50. I feel like duck. I feel like, uh, I'm, I'm dumpster diving. Yeah. It's good. We're feeling where you find the edges. Uh, here you go. Um, and let's talk about a game that's coming up tomorrow because I do think it's interesting because both teams played in week zero, AJ and that San Jose State and Eastern Michigan up on FANDOL right now. We're seeing Eastern Michigan as a three point favorite, right, with a total of 56 and

15:21a half. And I updated the college football trench report for this week with I didn't want to give like just the 2026 data off of one game as the end all be all. So I blended it. So if you go up on better day.com and you go to the college football trench report, you will see projection written to most teams names. And then you'll see like a 50% mark with a one game note, meaning that we're blending the data from game number one for these teams 50% with the preseason projection numbers. But based on that blend right now, I have Eastern Michigan with a trench advantage, uh, with, you know, the largest trench advantage being in Eastern Michigan's past blocking, uh, and their run defense, not enough to play a rushing prop on them, but with the trench advantage with a home advantage with a team coming from the West Coast after playing kind of an uphill fast paced type game against USC last week, I think laying the

16:27points here with Eastern Michigan might be a play. Well, I'm just going to look at the over. Uh, I think San Jose State built a little bit of confidence last week, uh, at least on the off and side of the ball. And we all know USC's got their problems on defense. But the fact that San Jose State was able to, to, to score kind of at will in the second half of that game. And I mean, how different is, I mean, would you, I would imagine USC's second third string is, is probably better than Eastern Michigan starters on defense. Yeah, of course. But also, but also what was the motivation in an empty stadium on a hot day when you're already winning the game, you know, no, no, no doubt. I mean, I, I think you're right there. But again, I do think San Jose State probably found some confidence that they wouldn't have had otherwise. And I think San Jose State is, you know, one thing I know about, uh, Kenya, Montelolo, although, AJ, come on, get it right. You've done it a bit in time, Jordy. One thing I know about him is, is he's coached a lot of teams that, uh, did, did not have high expectations and he's good at getting the most out of a little.

17:31And I, I think that's what he's doing again here in San Jose State. I think Eastern Michigan wins, but I don't want to play Eastern Michigan as a favorite, especially more than a fuel goal. If the, if the number ever come down somehow below three, uh, I could find myself interested in them. I think that's the over in this game. I think both teams find some success offensively. And it wouldn't surprise me if San Jose states in this thing at the end. All right. Well, that wrap up our, uh, college football coverage here for week one. Again, more college football talk will come your way later this afternoon on the better day football show live streaming on the better day Twitter page and up on YouTube on the better day YouTube page. Make sure you subscribe there to PM Eastern 11 a.m. Pacific will get some plays from Joshua none in the college football world. We'll also talk about what Steve Fesick has already released as far as his college football bets are concerned. Okay, AJ, let's get to our 32 in 32 team preview of today's team. A team that needs no introduction because they are your super bowl favorites.

18:33The Los Angeles Rams are today's team in our 32 in 32 NFL team preview. The Super Bowl favorite at plus 500 up on Fandall with a season win total of a whopping a whopping 11 and a half minus 130 to the over. You would think if the team is a minus 500 favorite AJ as the shortest odds on the board to win the Super Bowl, they would have a win total higher than 11 and a half, but it goes to show you how difficult that division is and the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are in that division. But still, you're not a minus 500, excuse me, a plus 500 short shot favorite between the Super Bowl. If you're not expected to be the one seed in the NFC. So how do you handle this Rams team from a betting perspective in the futures market? Well, I mean, first of all, I've gotten no interest in betting them to win a Super Bowl. They're an older team. I mean, there's obviously, you know, Matt Stafford is one of the elder statesman in a league.

19:36So I mean, generally is stay healthy. He was the MVP last year, AJ. Yeah, in a year, and remember coming into that season, people were like, I don't know if he's going to be able to play his back, saw messed up and then he just shows up and has an MVP year. But he is an older guy. I mean, Aaron Donald, everybody's excited about Aaron Donald. I am too. But Aaron Donald hadn't played in a couple years. He's an older guy. Pukinakua, what, I mean, is, are we certain that Pukinakua is going to play all 17 games? He's got some weird off the field stuff happening this off season. I think the Rams are justifiably the favorite to win the Super Bowl. But I just don't think five to one is any value just because, like you said, they play in a division where, I mean, there might be three of the five best teams in the NFC in that division. If San Francisco finds a way to stay healthy, ever. And you have, I mean, I love Mike McDonald. This is by far the best coaching division in the NFL. When you look at McDonald, Shanahan and Sean McVey, I think this is, there's just brilliance

20:43all over that thing. So I think that there's a, there's the talent justifies them being where they are as the top team in the market. But the talent is going to play a bunch of other talent throughout the season. And that's why I think you see that win total a lot lower than you typically see the favorite in the NFL having a win total. So I'd be more interested in the win total over than I would in the five to one. The five to one just doesn't interest me. I just think that you're going to find better value on the board. I think Seattle is probably better value, although I'm not really into them either. So I think that the, and I think Fesicle tell you, Super Bowl futures, you're paying, there's so much. Yeah. There's so much big on those things. It's hard to find any real value in. But I do think the win total for the Rams at 11, that feels like it's an over for me or nothing. I can't imagine this being a 10 and 17 with the talent they've got barring a Matt Stafford injury. Do they win the division?

21:43It's minus 105. I'll go yes. I'll say yes. I mean, they've got, they could have easily won it last year. You know, probably should have won it last year. Well, I'll have two point conversion changed everything. I'll say in the fact that they get a second play schedule now, instead of a first play schedule, probably helps them some. But that division is just, it's so fascinating to me. I don't have a great feel for who the best team is in it. I think any of those three teams in the right season could pull off some magic. But yeah, I think if I had to play gun to my head, yes or no, I'd say yes, Rams win the division. Well, I gave out the best bet involving the Rams earlier this week. So I'll just repeat some of my reasoning for that. And that is a week, week four game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles. And this bet is only, well, it's not only available. The game is up on other books. But the bet that I recommended was only available at Caesars because that's where they had the line for week number four, the Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles.

22:47The best bet that I gave out was Eagles plus three. And that while you can, other books have a different line, but grab the plus three while you can. And the reason is scheduled dependent AJ went over this earlier this week with Michael Fiddler on Tuesday's episode. But you play the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia to open up the season. I want to talk about the game also just in a minute. Then you come home, you have the Monday night football game against the Giants. So you got the many by you're okay. But then you travel to take on the Broncos at mile high. That's a big game. And then after that, you have to go on the road cross country to play the Philadelphia Eagles in the one o'clock Eastern time start. And that's just a bad situation for any team to be in going from Denver, cross country to now play the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles, by the way, are the number two team in my trench report. So while you have the number one team being the Rams, the number two team is the Philadelphia Eagles. And one team that could really, you know, contend with them, it is going to be the Philadelphia

23:52Eagles. And then there's just the nugget here teams are that are on the road the week after being at Denver since the start of the 2021 season, four and 10 straight up, four, nine and one against the spread. So the best bet involving the Rams is to fade them in week four in Philadelphia against the Eagles. Now on week number one, I think the Rams roll over the 49ers because everything that they're doing with their travel situation, AJ has been tested. They sent people, they sent team people over to Melbourne to test it. They are flying there as late as possible. The 49ers are going to go stay there for a couple of days a week early, get acclimated, not the Rams. Rams are going to stay in LA, fly there at the last possible minute, play the game and get out of Dodge. They've tested it. They did it when they went to London. I know it's different, but they did it when they went to London and they blew out the Jaguars. That's what they're going to do here in Melbourne against the 49ers. And I think that body clock study is going to be the reason why they win in cover.

24:55I mean, amongst other regions, but it's a reason why I like them. Yeah, I generally agree with you on the week one against the 49ers. I think that this team, and although, I mean, who knows, we've never seen a game in Australia before. Crazy things might happen. Balls on a crazy thing. And the ball, the ball, the ball might spin the opposite way. I don't even know. You want, you want to know how to speak Australia? Yeah. Okay. So I'll tell you how to say razor blades in Australia. Okay. I want you to repeat after me. Rise, rise up, up lights, lights. Now say it all together. Rise up lights. That's how you say razor blades. That's how you say razor blades in Australia. Pretty good. No one, I do want to give you a little pushback on the Eagles bet. And I think you brought out some great points. And the Rams, the Rams early season scheduled their travel schedules absurd. The only thing that would make me hesitant on the Eagles is the Eagles are on a short week that week.

25:56They played Monday night football in Chicago on the road. So it feels like any real rest advantage that they would have is kind of negated by that, by playing the Monday night game. And that, that, it, like I would normally say, man, you play in mile high the week before yeah, you're probably going to be at a disadvantage. But I think that full extra day is probably an advantage for the Rams. So maybe it worst it evens out. And you know, I still, I'm not high on the Eagles either. So I'm not in a rush to throw money on the Eagles four weeks into the season. So just a little pushback idea. If I do think you're probably right that the number is not going to be three on game day. Yeah. But, but yeah, I'm, I'm, and if you're, if you're a person who all you care about is getting the right number, which a lot of people are and I don't blame you. But, but from a schedule perspective, I do think that kind of evens a matter a little bit. Well, AJ, next week when we are recording this podcast to air on Thursday, September

26:5710th, we will be talking about the Los Angeles Rams against the San Francisco 49ers currently up on Fandall. The Rams are a three and a half point favorite total of 48 and a half. We will cook up a same game parlay for that game as well. Like we will each end every Thursday night up on Fandall. It's going to be a blast. College football is here already. And next week, we will start to talk about Thursday night football in the NFL as a reminder, the better day football show streaming live today on the better day YouTube and Twitter page 2 p.m. Eastern time. Make sure you catch us there. Interact with us on the show. Leave your comments. Join us in the chat and make sure you download the better day mobile app. Become a better day insider or premium member. Get the trend reports. Premium members get access to all our picks. We already have several that are early out for this weekend as we try and stay ahead of the line moves. So be a part of our journey as well up on better day.com and the better day mobile app for AJ Hoffman. I'm Scott Sidenberg. Here's hope you make today and every day a better day.