Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are looming, can the relationship ever recover?

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1:01This is a CBC podcast. The clock ticks down to Canada's retaliatory tariffs. The trade war hits hard in Michigan and Donald Trump threatens to upend global trade once again. It's Friday, September 4th. I'm JP Tasker. The Power and Politics podcast starts now. The countdown is on to Canada's tit for tat retaliation against 50% U.S. tariffs. Counter-teriffs on billions of dollars of U.S. goods are set to take effect at 12-1 AM Eastern on Tuesday. Caught up in this escalating Canada U.S. trade war is Michigan, a state that will feel the pain of those retaliatory tariffs. It's also a key battleground in November's midterm elections. This week, CBC's Catherine Tunney traveled to that battleground spate and spoke to the Democratic candidate in a key Senate race about the impact Canada's retaliation will have. Here is some of that exclusive interview.

2:02You know, when you look at the broad swath of trade deals, not just with Canada, but generally, we lost a lot of really important industry in our state in particular. So there's an opportunity for very targeted tariffs to create manufacturing opportunities and jobs, but this approach is just going to kill more jobs and it's going to kill jobs on both sides of the border. It does not make sense. People are going to have to start feeling the pinch because of these stupid tariffs. I'd rather us not be here. And so as people start feeling that pinch, right, you know what my opponent said? He said, well, the shoe is going to pinch sometimes as if like to justify it. That's crazy. So I think it's just going to get worse because people haven't even felt the consequences of the retaliation yet. We appreciate you guys being good neighbors. I played the cross, which happens to be your national sport and also played hockey growing up. I remember fondly traveling to Canada when I was a kid in hockey tournaments and such. And look, I hope that once Trump is gone and we defeat my groggers, that we can get

3:05back to being great neighbors and sharing a great border because, you know, Gordy, how really was the thing. He was an amazing red wing who came to us from Canada. We appreciate that. CBC's Catherine Tunney has more on how Michiganders are experiencing this trade war in this file from Detroit. We're here on the Michigan side of the Gordy How Bridge, an obvious sign of our interconnected economies. This is the heart of America's auto industry. Michigan is also a state where businesses and people have been some of the hardest hit by tariffs. And with Canada planning to hit back next week, most Americans we spoke to are bracing for even more pain. It's not doing anybody here in Michigan any good. It's making it worse. It's not good for Canada. It's not good for us. It's just no good. Michigan is a hotly contested race for November's midterms. The Republicans have a chance to flip the open Senate seat red. The Democrat is bringing Canada and tariff struggles into the campaign.

4:06Michiganers have been struck by yet another disastrous Trump policy. The expansion of a trade war with Canada. Now we're here in Michigan. We all know Canadians. Canadians are like the only people in the world who are going to preemptively apologize for something they didn't even do. So if you're starting a trade war with Canada, it's because you're the... The Republican has remained more muted on the issue. The Canadians have not been good partners on this. I think they think that the Republicans are going to lose in the midterms and then that the Democrats are going to open up the borders again and absolutely undercut the people who build cars and car parts right here in Michigan. We visited the industrial city of Flint and its surrounding area to ask Americans if the trade war with Canada will sway their vote. I have not made up my mind yet because things are changing daily. I mean, if anything, it made it stronger that never will like vote Republican. When I do vote, I vote Republican.

5:07I think Trump's doing a good enough job right now. These in Poland suggest most Americans aren't happy with Trump's handling of the trade war. Poles also suggest the two men running for senate are neck and neck, making it unclear if people's views about the Canada-US trade war will influence them at the ballot box. But people are clearly talking about it here. Catherine Toney, CBT News, Detroit, Michigan. For more on how the trade war could impact politics south of the border, I'm joined now by former US ambassador to Canada. And importantly for this conversation, former Michigan governor James Blanchard. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for coming on. Thank you for having me. So late last year you said US relations with Canada are the worst in modern history. A lot has happened since you said that in December 2025. What's your assessment of the relationship now as the trade war and Trump's tons escalate? Well, I think it's really worse. And unfortunately every day I can get that way if we don't watch it.

6:08The tragedy is that lately things have gotten lost in the idea that our relationship is simply a commercial relationship. And they forget that we were allies in World War I and World War II. We were founders of the United Nations, NATO, and Noret. We worked together and everything from space station to alien smuggling to obviously trade and cultural issues, tourism. We are a partnership that works. We were the envy of the world. We have been. The whole world is wondering what's going on now with the relationship and why is Mr. Trump so aggravated about Canada all the time. But from Franklin Roosevelt down, every president right through Joe Biden said, I would stand really with a few minute minor squabbles, great relations with Canada and there's no reason not to have that again.

7:09But it's going to take a different president and a lot of time to restore the trust that we need between ourselves. As a former governor of Michigan and ambassador to this country, as you say, you really know the ties that bind our country better than most people on either side of the border. Now we have these 50% Trump tariffs that are already in effect. Canada is imposing its own retaliatory tariffs next week. What could these actions do to the trading relationship? Are you fearful that this could be permanent in terms of the breakage between our two countries? No, I think we need each other. And it isn't just energy where we are actually somewhat dependent on Canada. This is everything. We need each other with auto's, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture. It'll have to get repaired. I think the sooner we get back to negotiating the renewal of the US, Mexico, Canada, free trade agreement, better off it will be. The one thing that I want to underscore though, and I think you will understand this in

8:11many of your viewers, it's very easy to start a war, much tougher to end. And that's true whether we're talking about Mr. Trump with Iran or Vietnam or a trade war. And so I think we ought to be very careful not to escalate it because ultimately there's going to have to be negotiation and we're going to have to work things out whether we like it or not. I think Americans have to understand that Canada is more than a commercial partner here. You are a fundamental and best ally and partner we've ever had with any other country, period, my entire life time. Too many people have worked hard to cement these relations and build the bonds to let one man or one administration put it a sunder. That's my message. And I'm telling you at least 80% of America believes the Canada is our best friend, ally and partner and they are disgusted with the idea of even a simple thing is renaming Lake Ontario.

9:12Do you think it's appropriate for Canada to retaliate against the United States, talking about escalating wars and how they're difficult to stop? Do you think it's the right decision for the Prime Minister to go down that road because we've heard from U.S. trade representative James and Greer. He's already warning that the Trump administration will hit back and punish the Canadian economy more than he already has if we do put these countermeasures in place. Do you think it's wise to go tit for tat? Well, I don't want to be giving advice to Prime Minister Karni but he's very popular in the United States. People like having a grown up in power. So I don't want to be giving him advice or second guessing him. I just think the sooner we get back to the bargaining table the better. And I don't believe in escalation but I'm not going to blame Mr. Karni for doing what's necessary to protect Canada's interests. You mentioned the unpopularity of these Trump tariffs.

10:12This is obviously an election year in the United States. The midterms are coming up. How do you think this trade dispute will factor into those crucial ratios that are going to decide this election, especially in border states like yours? What are you hearing from candidates there in Michigan about this? Well, first of all, the Democrats are beating up on the tariffs and Trump. It's going to help the Democrats a lot. The Republicans who have been siding with Trump, the Republican candidates have all of sudden begun to back away and say, well, we've accomplished what we've wanted to do. So I would say the candidates in Michigan, which has more to gain and more to lose in any state, really any state, the candidates here are all opposing the tariffs. The Republicans just very so recently, Democrats have been opposing them all along. Almost all of our businesses, not just auto but our farmers, small business. Everybody here opposes the tariffs to Canada and from Canada and the trade war that Donald

11:15Trump started. They don't understand why is it that Russia is our friend and Canada is our enemy. And I say my friends, anyone that can't get along with Canada and the Pope has a problem here. This is crazy stuff. I don't think anyway. So all the candidates are starting to hide behind, they like Canada now. But the Republicans are caught on this one because the prices are up. These tariffs raise prices on consumers and businesses. It's really clear and that cost of living is a big issue. I think on both sides of the border. Yeah, there's at least one Republican speaking out about these tariffs. As you say, some of them are now coming around to it. One is really quite public about it. That's Susan Collins in Maine, the Senator who's running for re-election. She says these tariffs are terrible for her state. The Trump administration doesn't seem to care at this point that this is a problem for some members of the president's own party. What do you make of the president's political strategy here, leaving some of his own people

12:17out to dry, given that so many of these states are so interconnected with Canada? Yeah, I don't think he cares. I know he can't run again. He knows his pool is his approval rating is in the tank. I don't think he's worrying about, I don't think he cares about protecting the members of his party and the elections. I think a lot of them are big enough to see that. Susan Collins happens to be one of the smarter ones and she's a survivor. Watching her is a good indication of what the others are going to end up doing. Yeah, I mean, look, several months ago, the Senate and the House of Representatives in a bipartisan fashion passed a resolution opposing Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada. If they had that vote now, there would even be more people voting for that resolution supporting Canada. And that's something I want to remind our friends north of the border that our leaders, with the exception of a couple of people in the White House, do not support this policy.

13:20They want to work with Canada. They appreciate Canada. And as soon as these other candidates get on the line here with us, the better off we're all going to be. So the battle is down here. This is our problem. We've made it your problem and it'll have to get worked out. They're going to have to sit down and negotiate. And yes, politics is part of it. I think the Democrats are going to have a big victory in November. That will help. But I don't think the president cares about his party. He cares about himself. Let's leave it there. Richard, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, appreciate you making time for this country. Sir, thank you. Thanks. Ontario's Queens Park remains unchanged after last night's buy elections. Premier Doug Ford's progressive concertos held onto the two seats they had up for grabs in Hamilton East, Stony Creek, and the conservative stronghold riding of York Simcoe, whereas the new Democratic party kept it seat in Scarborough, Southwest. Canada's trade war with the U.S. loomed over the buy elections with PC Canada saying it was a big issue for voters.

14:25As we continue to enter into uncertain times with our largest trading partner to the sell, it became more and more apparent. People are feeling incredible anxiety. They're feeling some real fear. What does the future hold? And it became very, very apparent that somebody like Premier Ford is really best suited. As the champion of Ontario. We're going to continue to fight. We're going to fight against Donald Trump. We're going to make sure that we protect people's jobs, protect their communities, and protect them. For more on last night's buy elections, Marwitz Styles is the Ontario NDP leader and she joins me now. Nice to see you. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, great to be here. So you retained one seat but fell short in two of the other buy elections last night, including one in Hamilton, which is historically friendly territory for the new Democrats. What do you think the message was from voters last night for the Ontario NDP? Well we held the seat that we went into these buy elections with.

15:25We came close. Our amazing candidate in Hamilton East, Tony Creek, Manique Taylor, who was elected for 14 years previously in the Hamilton area, came within seven points of winning that election from the conservatives. And certainly, what we were hearing at the doorstep from many people in Hamilton East, Tony Creek, and in Scarborough, Southwest was that people were looking for a change. That we came a little short in the Hamilton by-election. But I think part of the story there was the Ontario Liberal Party was a quite distant third and may have handed the conservatives and duck forward a win last night. Yeah, I think that's the problem, right? There are folks who are looking for change, but there's vote splitting going on right now. And that's effectively guaranteeing the results that we saw last night. You and the Liberals are dividing sort of the anti-Ford vote, if you will. And I guess as long as that's happening, some analysts say the premier is just going to cruise to victory again and again and again. What do you say to that? Is there any talk of an alliance with the provincial Liberals to try and stop the PCs?

16:28Okay, it was pretty clear from the results last night and we've seen this pretty consistently that really we're the only ones with the NDP, the only party that has the ground game to defeat conservatives. We've seen that again and again. And I think that it's becoming even more clear that the next election is going to be about the Ontario NDP up against the duck forward conservatives. And I do want to say, you know, for us without question, you know, this was a, we were really excited about holding the seat in Scarborough Southwest. We know that the conservatives went hard trying to win that seat and take that away from us last night. But people in the community are struggling. And that's what we're seeing all across Ontario. The Ontarians lost 18,000 jobs just last month alone. And people are really struggling here. And you know, certainly in the last year and a half since the last election, Doug Ford has not lived up to the promises that he made to help protect us from tariffs, to help, you know, save Ontario jobs.

17:30And life has just become more and more unaffordable for Ontarians. And that is definitely what we were hearing on the doorsteps in these violations. And you mentioned tariffs. Of course, the premier's political brand is so closely tied to this trade war. The public sort of knows him for talking tough, telling the president to kiss his ass, calling Trump a loser, the king of bankruptcies. That sort of rhetoric really seems to be resonating with voters in the moment that we're in right now, given how angry folks are. How do you counter what seems like a winning style? Well, I, you know, I'm not so sure that it's working for them quite as much as people think. And I know you see the polls and everything. But, you know, I see what's going on with people in their communities on the doorstep. And I got to tell you, people are really frustrated. You know, it's easy to go out there and throw insults around. It was a lot harder to deliver actual results for people. And the last election, which was like a year and a half ago, that, that election was called a couple of years early by Mr. Ford, ostensibly, to give him a mandate to move forward on a whole bunch of pushback against Trump's tariffs.

18:32And we didn't see anything happen. I mean, really, the proof is in the pudding. There have been no results. This is a premier who just recently in the last few months gave a $60 million contract to an American company, Staples, to deliver school supplies, a soul source contract for our education workers. And that company is jacking up the prices right now, taking advantage of Canadians. We've seen this from this government over and over again. And in fact, Mr. Ford has been hiding from the media, hiding from recalling the legislature because he knows that Ontarians at the price that people are paying for the fact that he has failed to deliver on those promises he made just a year and a half ago, that the price people are paying is a really steep one. You mentioned the Staples deal, but there are also new subway cars for the Ontario line that are, I think, are being manufactured in Maryland. If I have that right, as you've put it, as you've pointed out, as well, a major American firm is building a new hospital in Mississauga, or at least partly going to be building that

19:37new huge infrastructure project, do you think the province should cut off all American procurement entirely, including firms that have Canadian employees here in this province? I think every single contract needs to be reviewed. I think all of those recent contracts should be cancelled. I think that there's no excuse for the Canadian or, in this case, Ontario government to be purchasing any services or supplies from the US companies at all right now. And I think it's inexcusable. And I mean, many Ontarians weren't even aware of this until this elections were called. So excuse me. So I am actually asking the Premier to recall the legislature. He's refusing to do so. We want him to ban those contracts. We want him to cancel those contracts. We want stronger procurement language. And we want relief packages for Ontarians. So right now we're struggling many Ontarians taking on multiple jobs if they can find one, struggling to put food on the table, let alone pay rent or mortgage. This has to stop. I'll just point out that the government has said that Staples Canada won that contract

20:40through a fair process via supply Ontario and that Staples was offering half the price of the next competing bitter. Do you think that there is, this could potentially be an issue because we know the Americans have raised procurement policies in the tariff negotiations. They are concerned with provinces blocking off American firms from bidding for government work here in this country. I mean, taking a more radical approach that frankly could make the Prime Minister's job harder. Our negotiators could have a tough time getting a deal with the Americans if we kind of go with the nuclear option and block them entirely from bidding on stuff in this country. Well, look, first of all, those are our Canadian Ontario taxpayer dollars. And so the very least we can do is say, look, make the same decision that every Ontario right now is making in their own lives to choose to buy Ontario, to choose to buy Canadian. That's what people expect us to do and we should be doing that right now. I do believe very much in a united strong Canada approach.

21:41And I do worry, and as I think many Ontarians have, that some of Doug Ford's free financing on various issues and in various ways has not necessarily helped us at the negotiating table. We need a united Canada approach headed up by the Prime Minister. Doug Ford likes to throw around a lot of insults. He likes to go on US television. He likes to block Ontario and Canadian media at his press conferences. He does want to be answerable to the people here in Ontario. And they're feeling that. And again, I can't stress enough that it is Ontarians here in regular people in the province of Ontario. And so, anyways, that are feeling the impact of terrorists, but certainly also of this government's failure to deliver the kinds of services that they need. I mean, my goodness, I wish the premier would just get in his own lane occasionally and actually address the issues that Ontarians are grappling with. Like, if a premier is responsible for anything, surely it's delivering basics like health care, a strong education for our children, a more affordable life. And I'll tell you, we've brought forward in the NDP, Ontario NDP official opposition.

22:45We've brought forward motions to have the government for example, cancel the tax on all groceries just like what can you did in Manitoba. And this government, this premier has voted against that. So he's taken opportunities to do the right thing and he's just shrugged them off. And meanwhile, regular people are really suffering while his friends and insiders actually are making a lot of money off these deals. All right, let's leave it there. Margaret Styles, Ontario NDP leader, appreciate you making time. Thank you. Peter. In a few weeks, Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting a major summit to encourage foreign investment here at home. Chief Economist from TD Bank say this could help trigger what they are calling a Canadian investment super cycle. TD says if investors focus on five key sectors, oil, minerals and resources, transportation, defense, and AI, it could kickstart an investment boom of some $1.7 trillion. So over the next decade and beyond.

23:46For more on this, Derek Burlton is the deputy chief economist with TD Bank and co-author of this report. Any joins me now. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for coming on. Thank you very much. So you have a new report out and one of the highlights is this line at least for me. If Canadian policy makers play their cards right, the country could be propelled into an investment, super cycle lasting for a decade or longer. What sort of cards should Ottawa play to make this happen? Well, there's no silver bullet. We often hear about things that need to be done. The push needs to be on competitiveness, improving competitiveness. It needs to be on bolt policies, perhaps taking on a little bit more risk in terms of, looking at the tax system, looking at regulation, skills of workers. So I think that's really the cards that needs to play. There are a lot of levers that can pull, but it's got to go boldly. In terms of realizing and some of these investment opportunities that are before the country. You projected at the high end economic investments worth 1.5 to 1.7 trillion

24:51could materialize over the longer term if we make some of those meaningful policy changes. What sort of projects are we talking about here? Which sectors are poised for growth? Well, we looked at five sectors in our analysis and we went through and looked at publicly available information on projects that are out there. It can be at the Federal Project Office on provincial sites. These are projects that are out there and tallied them up. And you get a pretty big number, something like a trillion. Now, the upper end number use site includes the promise if you can get a lot of these projects underway. Create that private ecosystem through policy changes as we just talked about. That you could see an even higher potential. But those five sectors, I think, are certainly sectors that the Federal Government has been touting where Canada has a lot of opportunities. They're in energy and critical minerals, defense, AI, and infrastructure. So these are five key drivers right now where there's a lot of focus in terms of opportunity

25:54for Canada. A lot of things that the world needs Canada can produce. So those are kind of the areas that we do see the biggest opportunities in. Yeah, as you say, energy and resources, potentially major drivers here. How much of Canada's economic future growth really depends on those two sectors in particular. And is there not a risk really associated with those because those industries, frankly, have been a bit politicized in the past? Yeah, I mean, these two areas do account for a disproportionate share energy in particular with talk of a pipeline out west is a huge project alone. And you've got power projects and energy within the resource aside minerals, gold, and the likes. So yeah, I mean, these are things that Canada does have a comparative advantage on and has, and as you point out, some of the projects getting them done in the past have run up against political roadblocks. We're going to need to be mindful of some of these constraints and work around them, things like getting the involvement and

26:58participation of indigenous and making sure we do clear a lot of the hurdles. But the good news is that we have seen it done in the past. And I think as long as we really focus on working around some of the past issues, a lot of these projects could very well see the light of day. As you well know, the last decade or so has been marked by poor GDP per capita growth, right? Kind of a sluggish economy, high population growth are really to blame for that. Do these new investments have the potential to make us collectively richer? Can we reverse some of the trends that we've been seeing over the last 10 years or so? Yeah, and that's the big upside. I mean, investment isn't necessarily a cure all, but it's certainly if you can see investment flow in both domestic source and from abroad, a part of the investment summit upcoming in Canada, it will invite a lot of international investors and that investment, which a lot of it is very labor intensive. You think about all the construction jobs required, the skills involved, the trades,

28:01and eventually when they see the light of day, the innovation to kind of keep the ball rolling. A lot of job opportunities as well. So we do see the potential if the trillion odd, we can work towards and even maybe see some spin-off other investments. As investment can be get investment, if we can get the early projects done, then yeah, it can flow through a higher standard of living and higher incomes. I think one of the numbers we do site in the report that kind of got some attention, a 12,000 per person increase in income level over the next 10 plus years could be generated if the investment does bear fruit and we see some of the growth flow through to the job market and the broader economy. That's a big number. Many Canadians of course are feeling anxious about the economy right now, given what we're going through with the trade war. This report suggests, though, you know, all is not lost just because of what we're going through with the Americans. How does that factor into this report that you've put out? How does that trade dispute kind of color

29:04what you're thinking about? Is there the potential for this dispute to actually spur, you know, this investment super cycle that you're talking about? Yeah, I mean, this is a very long term analysis. Now, given that we do, we've mapped out the investment projects through the next 10 plus years and you do get initial spurred in projects, some of them already are underway. You have some that are on the table, but we see the prospect of rotating waves over the long run. But yeah, I think the trade dispute certainly hopefully cooler minds will prevail going forward between the US and Canada, but to your point, you know, it can also be a catalyst. You know, things like defense is one area that we cite as seeing a structural impetus with all the government spending, not only in Canada, but globally on defense and Canada looking to carve out supply chain opportunities at home on it. Certainly that some of the trade issues can be a bit of a catalyst on that front and Canada as well as being viewed as kind of a trusted, you know, nation that's open

30:08to trade globally. And that's another thing that I think kind of can stand out as well. So, you know, if anything, I think it just increases the need for governments really to use the areas under control under its their control to really spur investment going forward. So, yeah, the trade issue is certainly in the media right now, but this I think long-term narrative that we cite is still stands regardless. I'll see you with there Derek Burleton, Deputy Chief Economist at TD Bank. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for coming on. Thanks very much. Under strain from a drawn out trade war, Canada's economy takes another hit. The country lost 42,000 jobs last month. This comes as trade tensions between Canada and the United States continue to escalate and hire tariffs threaten a wide range of industries. Speaking of the US, hiring was unexpectedly strong in August with 162,000 jobs added. This Rosie Jobs report has the US President

31:09once again calling for the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates going so far as to issue this threat. Lower the rate or I'll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit. That of course would include Canada. The power panel is here to talk about this. Cameron Ahmed was head of communications to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Laura Stone is a reporter in the Globe and Mail's Queens Park Bureau and Rachel Siegel is a former director of policy in the Harper government. Nice to see you all on this Friday. Thanks for being here. So, Cameron 42,000 jobs lost in August a lot worse than what economists were expecting. Actually, they were predicting a gain of 15,000 jobs, although the unemployment rate stayed the same. So, that's perhaps a bit of good news. What's your read on these numbers from Statistics Canada? Well, there was also a strong report in July. So, I think it sort of offsets the bad news from today, but no government ever wants to have to face news like this, especially when there are lots of other challenges that the country's facing,

32:10and you who talked about some of them just before we came on. I think what this reflects is a broader trend where the government is facing headwinds and we have an ongoing trade war with the United States where there are entire industries and parts of the country that are struggling and Canadians are struggling with affordability problems that have been going on for months and in fact for years. But the question is whether these difficult jobs numbers get worse or if they can stabilize them. And I think one thing that the Prime Minister is going to keep trying to demonstrate is that he can bring investment into the country that he can move the focus away from the obsession with the trade war with the United States since there doesn't seem to be a solution around the corner and keep growing foreign direct investment from other countries, bringing opportunities with businesses from around the world and trying to translate that into something positive, hopefully for the next few months. Yeah, Laura, as Cameron just said, I mean, this speaks to just

33:10how volatile the trade war is because we actually had a hot streak as of late, the economy had 181,000 jobs from April through July and then you get these numbers in August that are not great at all. Businesses just don't know which way to turn right now given the uncertainty with the US, right? I mean, I think these job numbers are more concerning in the context of what Canada is about to face. I mean, we're going into next week with the Canada's countertails being put in place. We expect the US to retaliate in some way and things could get very, very ugly. And so I think while you're seeing Canadian public opinion generally side with the Prime Minister and the Liberal Government on the approach that he's taken with the US administration, there's, it seems to be a wide support and backing for Canada pulling out of the talks. I don't think we've seen yet the consequences of that, the full consequences of that. And so I think what we saw today with the

34:12job numbers is just sort of a taste of what we may see in the coming months. And I think that's where it gets a little more frightening for some of those key industries, it's particularly in Ontario and Quebec. And so we'll see what the US decides to do next week or in the coming weeks. But I think, I think the government could argue this is a one-off in terms of the trend that we've seen with job numbers generally across the country. I think it's more concerning and there has to be more strategy thought towards the long-term plan when you're looking at the current trade war with the United States. Yeah Rachel, I mean the trade war is what the government is blaming this on. A spokesperson for the Finance Minister texts to me this morning saying the looming tear of deadline drove this decline. So they are trying to get out in front of this and say don't play us, don't play us here in the Prime Minister's office, the Finance Minister's office in Ottawa. This is Donald Trump. That's why we're seeing a $42,000, $42,000 jobs loss last month. They're

35:15trying to blame Mr. Trump and not any of their own policies to this point. Yeah and JPM, I mean we have to think about it as not just those 42,000 jobs, but those 42,000 Canadians that are now unemployed in this country add to a total of 1.45 million Canadians that have lost jobs in this country. So it's not just the 42,000 and I think that one of the major points that a lot of Canadians are thinking about today and even talking about this with some of my friends is that juxtaposition between the narrative in the United States and the fact that they were able to grow 162,000 jobs while we're losing them. But newspapers using headlines like fresh momentum around hiring in the US market, whereas we are seeing the decline. I think that there is a lot of pressure on Mark Carney to come out of his summit in a couple of weeks with a lot of tangibles, a lot of wins and of course you know the economist you just had on was talking about

36:16competitiveness, bold strategy. I think that that is what Canadians will be looking for coming out of that summit and the fact that those retaliatory tariffs most likely will be in place from Canada to the US, signaling for businesses more uncertainty and signaling for workers that jobs are not stable anymore in this country. So I think there is a lot of pressure on the Prime Minister's office and if we see next month another decline, I'm not sure their line today will stand long term. Yeah, in fairness over the last year, job growth has been quite tepid in the United States and then this month was really a shocker and that's why the stock market was down today because all good news is bad news right now because interest rates could be going up as a result given the hot economy in the US. Speaking of interest rates, Cameron, we saw from the president today that he is threatening to cut off all trade with the whole world if the US Federal Reserve does not slash interest rates. In fact, the opposite of what's likely to come given what I just talked about.

37:20I think I see why the Canadian negotiators have struggled to cut a deal with this administration because the economic eliteracy is quite something to behold especially when it comes from the very top. Yeah, this is what we've been dealing with and here's the thing, Canadians get it. Canadians not only have been following this extremely closely, hence why they continue to support and rally around the government but we've been through this before. We spent four whole years dealing with the exact same type of behavior and insults and back and forth with the administration. Now we deal with an administration that signed a trade agreement with great fanfare that it says is the worst in the world now. So I think Canadians get it and I think there's also an issue with reading too much into a monthly jobs report which of course is important and of course it signals directions that certain industries in the country are going in but we wouldn't be saying the same thing if we were having this conversation a month ago because last month's jobs report was really

38:24strong. What's important to look at is the overall trend line and I think Canadians while yes there are, we talked about a number of difficult undercurrents especially threats facing specific industries in Ontario, Quebec and across the country and people are struggling, people are dealing with affordability and affordability crisis in many respects and a lot of industries are worried about having to lay people off and some already have but what the Prime Minister is focusing on which is something that I think industry, Canadians and investors around the world are really keen on is building stronger links around the world and attracting investment into this country whether it's to build big projects whether it's to take advantage of our highly trained highly educated workforce and that's I think that's the key longer term and just can't forget the fact that we are one of the most exposed, not the most exposed economy to the United States of any country in the world and that's just the reality that we have to contend with so it makes the Prime Minister's work a lot

39:26harder and it makes his diversification strategy that much more important. Laura you mentioned the retaliatory tariffs that are set to take effect next week. Do you think that there can be a deal this weekend because I've been seeing some commentary in the American media saying oh well you know as a deadline approach is maybe the two sides can get together and cut a deal and avoid this escalation. I don't see any sign of that happening in Ottawa in fact I think it's probably the opposite. They're maybe getting further and further apart given some of the rhetoric we're seeing from the White House. I hope not for your sake JP I'm sure you could use a couple days off but no in all seriousness it does not seem like there's much movement on the discussion front a serious negotiations between the two countries and it appears that the United States of anything is just preparing further punishment or retaliation on their side so you know I think it's interesting that the US media would be would be speaking about that and maybe that that is a bit of a signal that the

40:28tide is turning amongst a certain segment of the American public and they're viewing this trade war with the US's closest neighbor and ally as unfavorable to the country and foolish but no it does not seem and you know we've heard from the Prime Minister who has essentially said you know when the US is ready for to take this seriously to speak with us in good faith we'll work here to speak with you but you know just the way that the Prime Minister has been answering questions about it recently this week talking about the cabinet being kind of unaware of the complexities of Canadian politics I don't think he would be speaking so openly about Canada's relationship with the US if there was any serious negotiation going on Rachel things could really turn sour quickly because we know that the US trade representative James and Greer has said if Canada goes ahead with these countermeasures they could hit back and they could start banning Canadian products going into the US does that give

41:30you any concern any pause about what the government has planned here to hit back at the US knowing that we could actually be paying even higher tariffs as a result of what's about to go down next week of course I think it gives all Canadians and all Canadian businesses pause that that could be the point that we are at in this country and then the flip side of that is what does the government do in order to counter some of that retaliation and that is you know like we were talking about building big things investing in projects putting shovels in the ground and you know we can't build those overnight we I completely understand that but at the same time that is the line that we have heard from this government from day one and now we are at a point where we are seeing job numbers go down we are seeing the instability rising when it comes to our relationship our biggest trading partner we've seen you know the the prime minister trying to expand our global

42:31footprint when it comes to trade with very little few deals in hand and so of course that makes me nervous it makes all Canadians nervous the question the onus is on the government to come out and finally tell us what it is that they're doing to to build within our borders to strengthen our production and to position us more strongly globally not just against the United States. Yeah and fairness some of the data we've seen shows that exports to the US are down quite a bit but the exports to other non-US markets are up also quite a bit this year so some of that pivot is underway now let's talk about what that means though for the US of course we've been discussing the Canada's retaliation will take effect just after midnight on Tuesday and there are some states that are going to really feel the pain one of those is Michigan where the Democratic candidate for the Senate has said that tariffs are a big part of his campaign for a reason have a listen. People don't like paying an extra five thousand six hundred dollars 55% more than the rest

43:33of the country for a vanity trade war that Donald Trump has decided to inflict upon all of us for no clear observable reason. So let's Abdul El Sayed who is running for the Democrats in Michigan Cameron I mean they are making this an issue it is going to be something that Republican candidates are going to have to contend with in the midterms. Exactly that's exactly what we would want to hear from not just politicians in the Democratic Party but in the Republican Party and in business circles and industry circles across the country and in fact it's what we have been hearing we you on this program have interviewed union leaders you've interviewed politicians people from across the US who have talked about the impact that this trade war is having on Americans and that's frankly the best thing that Canada can hope for is that this gets noticed and the impact of this gets noticed at a at a more local level and people start talking about what this means

44:33in terms of increased cost for American consumers for American businesses really across the board and that's sort of the Canada United team Canada strategy that we had in the first round of you know trade negotiations with the US we're employing that again today and so this isn't good news for the president when it translates into people feeling even more pain and even more difficulty in their in their daily lives to just buy basic things and for businesses to operate and for so many of these states Michigan is a great example Canada is their number one customer their number one trading partner they have industries where there's deep integration across the border they even have workers who cross the border on on in both directions and so the you know this tit for tat and back and forth obviously is bad for Canada because we are smaller and you are more exposed to their economy but it's also bad for for American states and for the US economy and that's why it's in the interest of the administration to come to an agreement so we'll see how it plays out over the

45:37next few days and whether they're able to extract some sort of a win but I think they're starting they're going to hear it more and more and the key is whether we hear it from Republicans to and people in Trump's orbit yeah Laura the timing of this trade war is terrible really because of the midterms it's only a few weeks away November the first week I mean I think that that is you know Donald Trump starts listening when he starts losing right and that has kind of been Canada's strategy to to put pressure on the on the US president ideally from within the Republican party but if if the president if the Republicans do poorly in November if there's pressure I mean obviously if if if Democrats win big or if there's pressure from within their Republican party and we've already seen some Republicans sending out messages that are critical of this trade war with Canada talking about the importance of the trading relationship questioning the strategy there I think that is when well I don't know what it takes for the president to start listing but I would assume that that is when you know when you start to feel pressure from within your own

46:42ranks I think that has more of an impact than hearing it from from Democratic rivals but I think when if and when the president starts losing I think that's when the pressure will will really be on Rachel very quick thought 15 seconds we've all been eyeing this American race in November and how it's going to play into these trade talks we didn't actually think that we would get this far in them that it would take this long but now it's it's a piece of leverage that Canada has and so it'll be interesting how this voice in the US continues to grow and how Canada and the people leading our negotiations will leverage the primaries in order to get us the best deal. Well let's leave it there thank you so much to the power panel Cameron Ahmed, Laura Stone and Rachel Siegel nice to see you all thanks for being here that's it for today if you liked this episode please follow the pod and catch our next live show on CBC News Network we're on weekdays at 5 p.m. Eastern I'm JP Tascar thanks for listening

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