Weekly Wrap: Retaliation upon retaliation as Canada-U.S. trade war intensifies

0:00Hi, this is Dave Roberts. Heading into summer without a medical emergency kit, that's a risk. Summer colds can linger and getting sick on vacation can derail everything. That's why everyone needs a medical emergency kit. It includes doctor prescribed medications to treat common and serious illnesses. So if you wake up sick, at home or on the road, you already have what you need. It's like having an urgent care and pharmacy at home. Say $45 with code blue at urgentcarekit.com slash blue urgent care kit.com slash blue. This is a CBC podcast. Hey, it's Peter in for David today. We're back with our weekly wrap panel with a new pod for you every Saturday. And we've got lots to talk about it after the rise and fall of Canada's trade talks. This week kicked off with an escalation from the US.

1:00I would they not have our liquor on the shelves? I mean, could you be more disrespectful? Promping a warning from the Prime Minister that tough times are ahead. And the premieres deliver elbows up messages of their own. Trump doesn't want to have a moosehead green or a crafty radler. Well, we're going to throw our own kitchen parties and stock ourselves with them. As Canada considers its response conservative leader, Pierre Pauliev, went south to speak directly to the American people. My mission here is to fight for my country, not to score political points domestically. Let's get to it. Rachel Seagal is a former director of policy in the Harper government. Zane Velji is a former strategist for the Alberta NDP. And Laura D'Angelo was an advisor to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. All right, guys, let's dig in. The trade war escalated to say the least this week with the US banned the import of most Canadian booze, some motorcycles, dairy products included.

2:01It also slapped tariffs on more Canadian goods as the Prime Minister and his cabinet met in BAMF to consider its response. We heard members of the Trump administration doubling down on their position. It's an incredibly intertwined relationship, which is why in the very near term, so many governors are concerned, they'd like to see some progress. Why would they not have our liquor on the shelves? I mean, could you be more disrespectful? And you can't insult President Trump and get away with it. So what's going to happen is they're going to have to make the right deal with America. And they're going to have to start trading us with disrespect, but of course we're talking. And you are talking. President Trump is the deal maker in chief, right? There's no time that he won't take a focal. That's US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik speaking there on NBC. Zayn, I'll start with you. What do you make of these kinds of comments coming from the Commerce Secretary? And earlier this week, we had Greer rejecting the notion this is even a trade war saying Canada's unhinged by calling it such a thing. If we're unhinged, they're misaligned.

3:01They are not on the same page. They're not even on the same team. There is so much cover your own behind as you can hear from each one of these different spokespeople. All psychophantically talking about Trump at the end of the day and how amazing he is. But let's be clear, these guys, these folks do not necessarily have a game plan. They got outflanked by Carney, a country one 10th their size on a communications war. They were flat-footed in America. In America, Canada is very popular. Even in Republican states, our position is abundantly crystal clear for people to understand. Collectively, including with our opposition leaders, we've made a very compelling case to Canadians, sure. But to Americans as well, this is a country that has economic might behind it. And always will, they will always be bigger than us. But as it relates to the acute situation right now, they can go down the track of import bans, etc. But as it relates to getting a better story out, they're not winning at this moment. And so then it's up to Canada collectively, not just the Carney government, to take advantage of the fact that we are currently ahead on the narrative war

4:05and turn that into real results or a de-escalation in certain cases for the benefit of the Canadian public. Earn your Farm D in as little as 33 months with West Coast University's hybrid program, no bachelor's degree required. Eligible transfer credits may be accepted. West Coast University, as real as it gets, visit West Coast University.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. Hi, this is Dave Roberts. Heading into summer without a medical emergency kit, that's a risk. Summer colds can linger and getting sick on vacation can derail everything. That's why everyone needs a medical emergency kit. It includes doctor prescribed medications to treat common and serious illnesses. So if you wake up sick, at home or on the road, you already have what you need. It's like having an urgent care and pharmacy at home. Say $45 with code blue at urgentcarekit.com. Slash blue. Urgentcarekit.com. Slash blue. Rachel, the Prime Minister said this week he's in touch with the President. There's pressure building from Democrats to be certain, but also a lot of Republicans raising alarm this week.

5:10And starting to say they're concerned about the path the President and the administration has gone down. Do you think there's a path back to the negotiating table in this moment now? Well, I would hope so. And like you said, we do know now that Carney and Trump have been talking, which gives us hope that eventually those conversations will lead back to the negotiating table. But for me, this has been such an interesting week in terms of that Republican question. You have to remember, Republicans met all through the week at the Republican Convention. This was an important moment for Donald Trump to really rally that base at a time when he's sitting at around 30% of support. We saw some interesting announcements, like the $5,000 to every adult if they win the midterm elections. I mean, this is a, this is a President who is floundering within his own base.

6:10Of course, there are still some that will be next to him till the end. I saw a few Republicans being interviewed talking about how he's protecting them against Canada. I just think that that script is flipping a little bit. And so we can't discredit the politics happening in the United States. And also the politics happening around Trump and his own supporters when we look at the bigger picture in terms of Canada's leverage and our ability to get back to the negotiating table. Laura, I mean, on the one hand, I see the tweets and I see the threats and I see what Latinx saying. But on the other hand, I look at the American response to the counter-terrorist was a lot more modest to use the word of the Prime Minister than we had expected. Like, is there sort of a stealth de-escalation happening here? And if so, is that a window to try to carve our way back to the table or are we just going to end up where we started or where we ended up at the end of August?

7:10I love your optimism, Peter. I don't think it's a stealth de-escalation. I think the reality of the trade war and the tariffs and the banned products is coming home to roost. I mean, just look at some of the items on the list that Trump removed from the list, like toilet paper. Americans don't want to be paying astronomical amounts of money for toilet paper. And so I'm not sure that it's a window for negotiation. So much as it is, the realities of the trade war are coming home to roost for Trump because of what Zane and Rachel were outlining. Canada is winning the communications war right now. And if you spend time on Instagram, like, I'm sure my panelists and I do as millennials, you will see American influencers saying things like, this is Tara free. Don't worry, this one doesn't have the extra cost. This isn't on the banned list. Americans are understanding what is happening and they are placing the blame where it belongs, with Donald Trump and the Republicans and they are starting to spin.

8:11And so I do think it's good that the Prime Minister and Donald Trump are talking. It certainly seems like they are talking, the Prime Minister has said as much. But I don't think that means we're getting any closer to a deal when we're also seen rhetoric like we're seen from Howard Lutnik. Yeah, I mean, I hear you and I'm going to move on because I think we could sort of go around in circles on this for days. In fact, we probably have. But some of Canada's premieres, we're pretty quick to come up with their own responses to the escalation of the trade war. If Trump doesn't want to have a moosehead green or a crisp pompous crafty radler, well, we're going to throw our own kitchen parties and stock ourselves with them. Standing up for Canada means that we have to be prepared to withstand pain that comes with it. Welcome to BC Canada. Strong, proud and never the 51st state. Sorry. Rachel, I had that exact same jacket. What did you think? Did you like that one?

9:16Well, I don't know when the premier is bringing in a parody rapper and wearing a lumberjack jacket, you know, things are not going well. It was frankly embarrassing. I think here in British Columbia specifically where we have seen over 24 stream mills close in the time that David EB has been premier of this province, which equates to over 15,000 forestry jobs in the region. I think this was a missed mark for our premier. I would have liked to have seen him come out and do something like Susan Holt in New Brunswick who put out a list of measures that New Brunswick will be implementing instead of a weird sign that says never the 51st state sorry. I don't think talking to a lot of British Columbians that that hit the mark. We're also in a weird political time out here. And so the premier is obviously positioning a potential election call around the tariff question out here. But I think that they tried something campaign style and it really fell flat, especially that very unfortunate jacket.

10:23On the other side of the country's aim, I spoke with New Brunswick, New Brunswick's premier Susan Holt yesterday. And she's come up with these, she's looking at least into banning Americans from hunting and fishing access. What kind of response might that elicit among Americans? The premieres have a massive wee wide berths just like the prime minister does right now. And I think you're seeing different premieres try to take different advantage of it. Some symbolism, some policies, some on protectionism. They got to be careful here because I think Karnie sent a good track here, which is we are Canadians are going to stand up for ourselves. We're not in it to harm Americans. As soon as we start looking like we are in it to be punitive to Americans, then I think we cross over even inadvertently to a line of looking like we're the aggressor rather than we're the stand alone like defender aggressively defending versus, you know, even neatly attacking. And I think that's where some of our Holt least be careful. I think the majority of our policies on procurements on by Canada, on the entrepreneurial sort of system of our province. I think those are all great.

11:29But I think the overall sort of policy that I keep in mind is we cannot be punitive to Americans because I think then it starts crossing over from the political administration into the people. And then I think we start losing that support. All Canada really has going for us outside of a few court industries that were, you know, not putting on the table just yet, giving, you know, stopping access to the Americans is narrative. And if we lose narrative in this country and outside, then then the game can significantly change from where it is right now. Laura, what are your concerns about the game significantly changing from where it is now? Right now, my biggest concern is the divide and conquer strategy that Donald Trump and his administration have used since the beginning of the trade war, frankly. And I think that some of the Prime Minister's comments over the past week, you know, clearly indicate both through subtle messaging and direct messaging to premieres that as a country, we have to stand strong. Canadians are very united in their support of Canada and Prime Minister Karni and fighting in the trade war.

12:31But the administration, down south, has been very smart in dividing up the country and leaving, you know, particularly premier Smith and premier Mo, relatively unharmed. And now we're in a world where we have premieres like Holt and Ebi and Ford coming out very strongly letting their citizens feel like they're part of the fight showing them what they're going to do. And the risk is very high right now that Canada ends up divided or at least around that federation table that premieres are divided. And I think that that is another spot where to Zane's point, it could be a huge weak point for us in the long run. I'm looking at my phone to see if one of my tree planting buddies has sent me a picture of me wearing my lumberjack jacket like David Ebi did. And in absence of one of those arriving, when it does, I'll put it up, I promise. And not to make too much light of it, but like, is there a risk in, and Zane, I'll stick with you on this, is there a risk in overdoing the sort of theatrical part of dressing up and trying to be the guy who defends these industries?

13:41You saw the way Jean-Cretien's speech was really embraced and he didn't overdo it. He just said it like it wasn't moved on. There's two types of risk. Number one is the risk that Rachel outlined, which is that you come across looking either silly, foolish, etc. I think Ebi will clean that up, I'm not too worried, but there is that risk. I'm not going to undermine it, Rachel's correct. The other risk, I think, is more important. In the evenings and even the residents, if you're in province for giving you a wide birth, so if you're not going to use that time to do something meaningful, the opportunity cost risk, where you could have done something policy wise, you could have pushed procurement, people are giving you a wide birth across the board, do something with it rather than just symbolically acting like you're doing something that I think is even a greater risk. People will look at your resume and your accomplishments and they'll say, we had this extended period where we would have let you do anything in this province and what did you do? That's right, I think every single pre-marine needs to be careful about right now. It's very attractive to be on an 80, 20, 90, 10 wedge issue, but you've got to use that political capital, spend it in this time, not just trying to earn morsels of it so that it goes from 90 to 92 and you feel good about yourself.

14:53Right, I don't know Rachel if that's actually the over 10 window, but whatever the window is, it's open right now for new political ideas. Well, I think, I want to touch on what you were saying here about Jean-Credd Chen because I think that he hit the nail on the head today. And a day that we, as Canadians, should internalize because it is a day of reflection on the relationship between Canada and the US. And I totally agree with Zayn. I mean, that line is very thin when it comes to overdoing it versus doing it. But again, you know, just going back to where we juxtapose a 92 year old former prime minister who gives this very lovely speech, talking about the actual relationship his experience dealing with the United States on 9-11 to a premier who's standing in a lumberjack jacket and has hired a rapper to entertain the crowd on the same issue. And so I just think that there are not only regional differences, but leadership differences.

15:58And when it comes to David E.B. specifically this week, I would have liked to have seen that go in a different direction as I think many Canadians, especially Canadians that are getting hit, sorry, British Columbians that are getting hit disproportionately badly by these 232 tariffs, would have liked to have seen more concrete outlines of what David E.B. plans to do in terms of the British community. In terms of the British Columbia question. That segues well to the next segment, which is the prime ministers, sorry, are we going to skip past that? I was going to say that the prime ministers forward guidance message came out at the beginning of this week and really did try to lay out not only what the path forward is, but the fact that there's going to be political pain. There's going to be economic pain. And it's going to be tough and prepping Canadians for understanding that these next, we don't even know how long but say six months are going to be tough. How important is it, Laura, to get out in front of that message?

16:59Oh, it's essential. The prime minister has to get out in front of it. And he has to signal a couple of things. He has to signal, which he's done that he knows this could be very, very hard for Canadians. Things are already hard, right? Gas is already expensive. People are already losing their jobs. Gas isn't $3 a liter yet. And unemployment isn't at 10% yet. And the prime minister has to signal that he knows that's coming. I think the other reason he has to get ahead of it is because right now a lot of the measures the federal government is taking as focused on industries and businesses and making sure that they can weather the storm. He has to signal that he understands this is going to hit individual families and people in probably a very short amount of time. Because he has to signal that they are thinking about that. They're thinking about what is going to happen and what they can do to support Canadians through that. And showing them that he understands how hard it is, but he also understands they want to be part of the fight and arming them with the tools that they need to be able to do that.

17:59All right. I'm going to move ahead to the conservative leader, Pierre Pauli, of course, in the United States this week. He was talking to the American financial networks, CNBC and Fox Business. Was some really interesting messaging, not just ending for back home, but for Americans as well. Take a listen. Well, I'm not going to attack my prime minister on foreign soil. It's just not something I'm going to do. The administration hit us with tariffs first and everything escalated thereafter. And my mission here is to fight for my country not to score political points domestically. Politics ends at the border. Rachel, was this the right move by the conservative leader? It certainly felt like the best day he's had in a while. Oh, yeah. I would say this was a complete win. I mean, obviously no surprise that I'm the one saying this. But sincerely, I think this was a great move for Pierre Pauli. And again, going back to the fact that this was Republican National Convention Week in the United States.

19:02There are more Republican voters tuning in to the news, what's happening in the country this week. And so this was a great time for him to be down in the US. Interestingly, being touted as the conservative leader in Canada and opening that door to a lot of Republicans saying, Hey, here's a conservative guy that's telling me that this is actually really bad for our country. I don't know how much that permeated, but like I said, there is an opening there as Trump continues to decline in the polls as people start to question some of the major decisions that he's made as president to have a conservative leader, whether or not you're from the United States, but specifically from Canada coming and telling them that this is the wrong move. I think in all of his media that he did both, you know, more right leaning media like Fox and more than other media as well, his message was clear that he was there to advocate for Canada. I think he respected the Prime Minister and the role that the Prime Minister is playing in these negotiations very well.

20:07So all in all, I think a win for Pierre Pauli of very specifically this week. And his thing on Fox is really interesting in that he uses a really specific example. He is like the tariffs on aluminum are driving up the cost of the F-150, the most popular pick up trend, the most popular vehicle in the United States for the last 40 years or something. Like a really tangible, like and it was with Ludlow who used to be in the Trump administration, like they're being able to sort of articulate that those specific examples that affect people's lives. I think it's enormously important, especially as we head into the midterms. I will 100% agree with everything Rachel has said. I think Pauli have had a great week. I think this is a great set of media appearances. He has a fruit trader going out there and being like this is against what we even believe people watching. And then and then subsequently also on that that CNBC interview with Andrew Rossurkin, also known as the poor man's Peter Armstrong.

21:07He kind of mentions. He mentions that I'm not going to criticize my prime minister. I think to me that reiteration of that line to essentially say Canada's United, you're not going to see daylight with me. You could if you want to go domestic with you want to see that, but you're not going to see daylight with me around who is to blame for this. And as a fruit trader saying that there's things Pauliev can say in America that even carny is being more of a center right liberal will not be able to effectively communicate because he doesn't have those creds. I think this is a smart move by Pauliev. I think it's something that he hopefully can sustain as being on team Canada. And I think one of the natural ways for him to do that is coming back domestically and participating in the referendum in Alberta. But that's maybe a bit of a side note, but I will agree with everything Rachel's got to put on the table. I watch that show all the time for obvious reasons. Joe Kiernan, who is the real Republican, the Trump supporting Republican on that. He was the one saying, oh, that's classy that you're not going to take a run at the prime minister. He had to have walked out of there pretty happy. Laura, he walked out of there pretty happy.

22:09I'm sure and then found out that Jamil Giovanni was there saying terrible things about him. But every time he gets a good day, somebody's there to just to try to knock him back down. Yeah, and someday he makes it easy, right? This week wasn't one of them, but he does make it easy some days. Listen, I have to agree with you, and Rachel, I don't think you can watch Pierpoli of this week and say that he had a bad week. Obviously he didn't. I do think it's interesting to take a step back and look at the strategy behind it and what was Pierpoli of trying to accomplish. Because I question of what Pierpoli of was trying to do was actually go to the US and advocate for Canada, or if the audience was all of us up here. Because he does have a problem. When you talk about Jamil Giovanni, for example, Peter, you are talking about someone who is out of step with Pierpoli of messaging. He is out of step with most Canadians, and he is dominating the airwaves all the time. This is the first time in a very long time that Pierpoli of has managed to break through the noise of other members of his caucus. Certainly the actual news of the day and actually what is happening.

23:11And he has been desperate to. They have tried everything. They have tried to show us the papers. They have tried to recall parliament. They have tried so many things and it hasn't worked. And so I do think you have to take a step back and say, who is the audience? I think the audience was Canadians to try and see Pierpoli of as a leader. I think it was also quite frankly some of the senior conservative influencers we have seen out being very supportive of the Prime Minister, like Jason Kenney, like Aaron O'Toole. There are many of them. And I think that this was a signal from Pierpoli of that even though he may not be willing at least right now to kick someone like Jamil Giovanni out of caucus, he is on the same side as Canadians. All right. I want to squeeze in everybody's look ahead. You've got 30 seconds each. Laura, you go first. You're looking ahead, I think, to the return of parliament? More specifically. I'm looking ahead next week to the prepositioning that all of the parties are putting out to the return to parliament. Next week is going to be a big news week between the CIS and a number of other things. There's also going to be a lot of little tidbits out there that signal the party's directions, all three of them, well for including the block and DP for parliament the next week.

24:17Yeah, which Zane is your thing. You're looking ahead to the investment conference next week. Yeah, the hype seems to be real. It seems to be energized in the proper way. The timing couldn't be better for the prime minister and his team. The question is, what are the outcomes that we're expecting? Not even talking about down the road. I'm talking about next week. What is the headline that they want? It's unclear if we're looking for a big number, a big set of deals, American deals. I'm very curious just to see where that lands next week. All right. Rachel, I don't know how you jam BC development and some politics into 30 seconds, but I'm going to give you a chance to try. Union of breacy municipalities are holding their annual conference. It's the biggest gathering of politicians in British Columbia every year. Obviously, we're watching the premier and whether he'll call an election. The opposition side changes every day. So this is going to be definitely one to watch and probably some big headlines coming out of it. You did it. You did it. Seconds, there you go. There you go. BC politics never fails to be exciting. Thanks to all. This was great. It's great to have you back.

25:18That's it for today. If you like this episode, please follow the pod and catch our next live show on CBC News Network. We're on weekdays at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. I'm Peter Armstrong. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.