Carney says he still regularly talks to Trump

0:00Hey, I'm Vanessa, and I'm a producer on Q with Tom Power. We connect you with artists who've lived extraordinary lives and have some pretty interesting things to say about being human. Take the violinist Vijay Gupta. He was this child prodigy who played Carnegie Hall when he was eight. But then he started asking himself, is being great at something worth it if you can't do it with joy? I really love this episode, I think you will too. It's on Q with Tom Power, wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC podcast. Prime Minister Mark Carney and his cabinet consider candidates next steps in the escalating trade war, New Brunswick announces its own retaliatory measures against the U.S. and President Donald Trump tries to win back voters with cold hard cash. It's Thursday, September 10th. I'm Peter Armstrong. The Power and Politics podcast starts now. We're looking closely at the measures that the Americans have just recently announced.

1:13I would note that some of them are swapping some tariffs for other tariffs, so the aggregate's not there. We fully recognize that for individual companies and in individual sectors, these are significant, and there's a response there. I would also recognize that in the context of other things that the U.S. administration has done, other measures U.S. administration has done, that these are relatively modest measures. We take that into context, and we also take into context, and I will have to leave after I finish this. These few sentences, we take into context that the biggest impact we can have here in Canada is to focus on what we can control, building at home, diversifying abroad, and delivering for Canadians. And that's what the cabinet is meeting on now, and that's what we're going to focus on, and we'll have a chance to draw that out in more detail. So thank you all for coming. And thank you, Mr. Boku. Thank you.

2:13Thank you. All right. That was Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking to reporters in Banffell, Alberta, where he has convened his cabinet in a pretty important time. There's an awful lot going on. The trade file, of course, there is the upcoming investment summit that starts Monday night in Toronto, Tuesday is the big day for that, and then of course a visit by Ukraine's president. In talking about that, just a quick summary of his main points is that they are going through the American counter-terrorist, the retaliation to Canada's retaliation to the American retaliation, and says they're reviewing it, but that for the most part, the way he called it in French was a gesta modest gesture, modest changes to the terraforgeme. So it doesn't sound necessarily like there will be further retaliation, and that would be good news if this escalatory cycle were in was able to stop there. On the investment summit, he sort of reiterated his pitch on why Canada is a place to invest in right now, in spite of the uncertainties caused by the trade war, and what Canada

3:16has to offer, the Canada has with the world once, and that it is a stable place. That, those two big issues are obviously not just for cabinet and not just for the country, but for the primers as well. New Brunswick, as an example, is taking big steps to curb the impact of the U.S. tariffs. They announced new measures to promote buying Canadian, including banning U.S. contracts over $5 million, looking into restricting, fishing, hunting, and mining access to Canadian citizens, and asking New Brunswick liquor to prioritize Canadian products. This all comes in response to the latest round of U.S. tariffs. Susan Holt is the premier of New Brunswick. It's great to see you. Thanks for doing this. There's been an escalation to our escalation. The retaliatory cycle is deepening. What's the latest you've heard from the feds as far as a response from Canada? Well, what we are privileged to have is a prime minister who actually engages with previous on a regular basis about this.

4:17What we hear from the prime minister is that we're backing ourselves and we're focused on what makes Canada a new Brunswick strong. Until such a time as we have negotiating partners that will negotiate in good faith and with seriousness about the opportunities between our donations and economies. We're doing things like the Canada Investment Summit next week that's going to see folks from around the world who want what New Brunswick has to offer, what Canada has to offer, coming to partner with us and invest in us. And we're looking after New Brunswick businesses and Canadian businesses throughout this tariff uncertainty and the trade war that we're in. I have some questions and I have the pitch-doc in front of me of the investment summit. But before I get there, I do want to ask about what New Brunswick is doing. Because part of what the Americans are upset about is that we've taken these actions and that that's banned American products from the shelves in Canada in New Brunswick. You're taking new steps to prohibit the procurement of US goods and services or contracts

5:22in New Brunswick. That's an estimated $5 million value. Are you worried that these actions that you're taking might bring yet more consequences for New Brunswickers? Well, we've got to look after ourselves. When we have the president of the United States attacking New Brunswick businesses with tariffs, 50% tariffs, so with the complete ban of importation of Canadian products like our beer and other alcohol products, then we have to make sure that we are doing everything we can to support New Brunswick businesses and support Canadian businesses. So that's why we've directed all public institutions in New Brunswick to really look at their supply chains, look at their procurement and make sure that wherever possible we are buying Canadian and buying New Brunswick because at a time like this we've got to show up for New Brunswick businesses and Canadian businesses, so that's what we're doing in New Brunswick. So there's the procurement side of it. We're also reading there's some restrictions of moose and salmon hunting, some mining claims will be restricted to just Canadian citizens.

6:22What's the move there and what's the message to a lot of Americans just across the border? I've come up done a lot of work done a lot of recreational hunting and fishing in New Brunswick as well. Yeah, we do know, I mean, and you would know Peter, New Brunswick's an incredible place for outdoors women and men who love the salmon fishing that we have here, the incredible moose hunt that we have here, and we also have natural resources, particularly mineral resources that are more valuable than ever and that the world is interested in. We're seeing things like up in the Bathurst mining camp, the new acquisition by Canadian Copper of the opportunity at Caribou Mine, they're getting that back into development. We're seeing Lake George now being pursued with a new partnership with Agnico Eagle. So we have natural resources that are of value to our allies around the world and their attracting investment from folks around the world. We want to make sure that New Brunswick's natural resources are being used for the benefit of

7:25New Brunswickers and with our allies and partners that we can do good business with. So we're evaluating whether we can put the legislative mechanisms in place that ensure that New Brunswickers and Canadians have first access to our incredible natural resources here in our province. Okay, speaking of those natural resources, they are on full display in this pitch book that the feds have put together for the investment summit. It technically starts Monday night, but the real business is going to come down on Tuesday. I see a lot of New Brunswick in here. I see some energy projects, the LePro project. How big an opportunity is the Tuesday conference and the prospect of all that investment money for the province of New Brunswick? It's a significant opportunity for New Brunswick because as I mentioned, we have what the world wants and now is our chance to put it on full display to potential investors and partners from the rest of Canada and from some of our allies and partners around the world.

8:27Getting investment from those partners into some projects that New Brunswick really wants to get done helps make it more affordable for us, helps make sure that we have what we need to move these projects as quickly as we'd like to. So this is a great opportunity. I'm really pleased that the Prime Minister has been able to attract the kind of capital that we're looking for. New Brunswick's bringing in some really strong projects that have attracted a lot of interest from that capital. So I'm ready to go out on Monday and Tuesday and to showcase all the opportunities that New Brunswick has to address some of the world's mineral needs, energy needs in a way that means good paying jobs for New Brunswickers, the kind of economic activity that is going to help us invest in the healthcare that every New Brunswicker deserves. It's a really great opportunity for us and we have a ton of projects to show off next week. There are a ton of projects. There's the

9:28tungsten mine, there's LePro, there's any fuels project, there's a data center. How does it work? Will you be in the room pitching the investment funds? Are you partnering with some of the businesses? I think there have been some concerns that not enough of the businesses that might actually run these are involved in the pitching process. Who's there with you and how do you envision this unfolding? Yeah, those are great questions because this has been evolving but they also are keeping it really tight. So, premieres will be there. Premiers are allowed to bring a plus one and then the lead investors, the CEOs will be there. We will also have all of our project proponents. So, any of the businesses or entities like NB Power or others that are involved in the projects that are in the pitch book, they'll be around so that we can make those connections. We're hosting a New Brunswick Reception on Tuesday night. Make sure that we can match make and get those connections happening between our project proponents and the investors in the room. But I am ready to pitch

10:31every single one of our projects to each of the investors that New Brunswick has been targeting and that are interested in us to make sure that we can advance these relationships and get access to some of the capital and some of the partnerships that we need to move these projects forward. And, premier, what does success look like? I mean, do we need to walk out of this summit with some firm commitments? Is there a dollar figure? Does it break down? Like, do you have a different level of success than say the feds might have? How do we know if this has worked out? Or will we not know for a year or two when these investments are fully made and actually underway? Yeah, that's a great question, Peter, because you can imagine that when a premier and a CEO sit down to talk, we're not inking out the final details of a contract that requires, you know, the lawyers and some of the other analysts to get involved. So we're looking to build a relationship to establish interest, to secure those partnerships so that we can say, you know what, this is somebody that we want to work with. They align with our values. They're interested in the same things we are.

11:31Then the next step is hopefully a meeting of the people who are going to really work out the deal. But we also want to see quick movements. So this summit should kick off the deal cycle that we should expect and hope to see move quite rapidly so that we can be announcing investment into some of our major projects in 2027. We have this investment summit. We have this trade war that we're in this escalatory cycle in. Is it important enough that once we get through this next week or so, that the premier is in the federal government? Like, do we need a First Minister's conference to try to just sort of get a sense of where we're at? That's a great question. And actually, we are all going to be together. I believe in Ottawa sometime in October. So this prime minister has demonstrated a real priority to getting Team Canada together. Whether it's virtually or whether it's face-to-face, we've had more meetings with this prime minister than I think any premier has seen before. Because of

12:32the seriousness of the situation, because of the benefit of alignment of Team Canada, when we all get together and realize that we can break down inter-provincial trade barriers and ways that we haven't seen before, that we can leverage each other and each other's assets in ways that really strengthen our country. So I think we'll be all together in October. And I imagine we then have our winter FMM coming right after that. All right. New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt, thank you for this. Great to see you. Thanks, Peter. Great to see you too. You heard the premier talk there, but the impact tariffs are having in her province. Well, in the US, Democrats say their states are feeling the economic pain of President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada as well. So much of our states' economies depend on a Canadian consumption. A bourbon is down 85% in Canada, and we've seen lost jobs there. I mean, this is just flat out crazy. All of the economic angst that's being caused here, but this is so deeply cultural and so personal, it is catastrophic with Canada.

13:36There are like serious, I want to be clear, serious economic impacts, serious pocketbook impacts to businesses and communities in the upper part of my state and throughout my state because of these chaotic policies. That as US President Donald Trump makes an expensive promise to Americans ahead of the midterm elections. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. I'm joined now by Chuck Todd, former moderator of NBC's Meet the Press, and now host of the Chuck Todd Cast. Thanks for doing this, man. Appreciate it. I want to start with this promise. 5,000-fuck-incensive. What does it tell you about the place the Republican strategists are in heading into these midterms? Well, I can tell you there's no Republican strategists

14:38that would have suggested the President say that, okay? Because all you see today is a whole bunch of Republican candidates going, well, you got to ask the White House because, of course, Republicans already have control of Congress. In theory, if he wanted to give a $5,000 dividend, he could do it right now. There doesn't seem to be anybody that's introducing that bill in the Republican-controlled House or the Republican-controlled Senate. I think what it tells you is, look, what Donald Trump is very good at is marketing. This is what he's PT Barnum. It is, in 2024, he sort of stumbled into no tax on tips. It was actually a really, he sort of stumbles into it, and Democrats didn't know what to do because it really did. Who lives on a tip economy, working people, right? It's very much so it felt like, oh, it's a benefit to working people

15:39and it seemed to have an impact. So he was looking for something and he just wanted to throw money at it, right? And to, remember in 2020, I say this as if you guys are in 2020, it was the COVID checks, and he promised extra COVID checks. So he does sort of connect elections with money. Now, we have this sort of cliche, a chicken in every pot, right? The type of thing that a populist politician wants to try to promise in order to win votes. But I think what it tells you is they know their record, they don't have a good record to sell, and they know that people are hurting. So promise them some cash when I think a lot of people would say, hey, how about stop the trade war? How about get rid of these tariffs? How about stop the war with Iran and you could lower, you could probably give people that $5,000 in savings just on just with if you just pulled back some of your very anti-growth policies.

16:40Well, that's just it, isn't it? Like if it's the exact policies of this government, whether it's in Iran or on tariffs that are making people uncomfortable, merely pulling back on those, there's like a wave of investment waiting to flood back into the market as soon as we get some certainty whether it's on the energy markets or on the trade front. Do you think any of that is registering and are there factions within the government, the administration, that it feels like they want very different things, don't they? Well, Peter, and I would say this, I mean, look, the fact is there are more Republicans in trouble in these midterm elections because of Trump's policies. And I'll just take you geographically to the middle of our country from Kansas up to Montana. Kansas is never a competitive Senate race. That's a competitive Senate race. Who's their number two trade partner, Canada? In fact, Bombadier, which is of course an airplane manufacturer

17:40that's own, it's a Canadian airplane manufacturer, but they've got a huge factory in Kansas. A giant factory in Kansas. Exactly. And so, you know, that's turned what shouldn't be a red state into suddenly a toss up state. Nebraska, why are Nebraska some of his constituents cattle ranchers, right? The beef industry, he's absolutely in some ways really handicapped those that are in that industry with this trying to do a quick import. He suddenly, he did lower tariffs on ground beef, but from foreign beef, which only hurt the cattle industry, which of course it primarily are in places like Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa. Well, what are those three states have? Senate races that are suddenly in play. So his policies are making it harder for Republicans to hold control of of of Congress. You see it, right? All of a sudden, you're like, wow, Democrats seem to be doing better in places they shouldn't be doing. And it's all connected to one of two things. tariffs,

18:43the price of energy, or, you know, a specific thing like this trade war with Canada. Right. You know, we had those, we played those governors talking off the top about, you know, idiotic, catastrophic, chaotic. And I think a lot of Canadians are holding their breath thinking, boy, if we can just get to the midterms and we can, you know, the Democrats can retake the House and maybe retake the Senate and reset the political dialogue. I'm old enough to remember when Biden took over from Trump the first time. He didn't change a lot of the Trump policies. Are Canadians getting ahead of themselves thinking that Democrats will actually, they're happy to use the trade war as a cultural to hit Trump? But are they actually going to change policies once they get into power? Well, that's a great question because one thing we've learned about tariffs, frankly, in my 40 years of covering politics is it once one is put on that constituency group suddenly cares a lot about it. And there's suddenly, you know, take labor unions in our country. You know, it's usually there's a labor union that is pro-terrafe. You know, it may be a building

19:46trade union, it may be a service union. And they may like that tariff. And right now, these labor unions are swing constituency groups. You know, they don't, they used to more identify with the Democrats, but we've seen particularly with the building trade unions, you know, the steel workers, auto workers, the rank and file lean Republican, even if the leadership leans Democratic. And so that's why a Joe Biden didn't want to do that because some of these tariffs, some of these auto tariffs, they're popular in places like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin. And so you're right. Now, you know, one of the other things that we don't talk enough about is how much our tourism economy has been damaged by the antagonistic relationship with Canada. And I'll give you two examples. I grew up in the state of Florida. You know, we've now, the state of Florida reported two quarters in a row of tourism going down. And there's only one answer for that, right? It's alienating our international friends in particular Canadians. I mean, Canadians, Las Vegas has seen

20:52a huge hit in visits there. And they attribute it to Canadians essentially going, well, I'm not going to America. I'm not going to give, I'm not spending my money in America. And we know the Bahamas has seen a surge of tourists. It's Canadians who normally go to Florida, decided I'll go to a Caribbean country that's not America and spend my dollars there. So we've had, this has been a triple whammy with what he's done here. And it is, it is harmed economies and all sorts of states that are suddenly becoming competitive in this midterm election. I'll tell you this, our voters are getting much better educated about how important these relationships are with Mexico and Canada. There are two biggest trading partners for a reason. And more, there are more working people have make money off of those good trade relationships than any other trade relationship we have in the world. I keep telling people that people saying we don't need Canada or not the Kentucky bourbon makers or the California wine makers or the tourism operators across the United States. But Chuck, we got to leave it there. Big fan really appreciate coming on the show.

21:53Thank you, Chris. I always feel guilty. I'm sorry, Canada. I'm sorry we're doing this. Well, I'm glad you came on to talk to us. So thanks for this. You got it. All ready. Hey, I'm Vanessa and I'm a producer on Q with Tom Power. We connect you with artists who've lived extraordinary lives and have some pretty interesting things to say about being human. Take the violinist Vijay Gupta. He was this child prodigy who played Carnegie Hall when he was eight. But then he started asking himself, is being great at something worth it if you can't do it with joy? I really love this episode. I think you will too. It's on Q with Tom Power wherever you get your podcasts. Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is ready to get back to trade talks with the US even after some recent insults from officials south of the border. Canada is always ready to strike a fair a fair deal. We believe there's a mutually beneficial deal for Canada and the United States

22:54and our team myself are ready. I speak regularly to the president, President Trump. I spoken in recent days. As the Prime Minister maintains a line of communication to the White House, Premiers manage the impacts of the latest retaliation on their provinces. If Trump doesn't want to have a moosehead green or a crisp pompous crafty red alert, well, we're going to throw our own kitchen parties and stock ourselves with them. Now more than ever, we need to stand up for new Brunswick businesses. Standing up for Canada means that we have to be prepared to withstand pain that comes with it. And we've seen some of that pain with President Trump's latest threats against Canadian products. Well, right on cue, the power panel is here to talk about all this. Cameron Alman was head of communications for former Prime Minister Justin Trito. Peter McKay is a former conservative cabinet minister, Andrew Thompson is a former NDP cabinet minister in Saskatchewan and Shachy Curl is president of the Angus Reed Institute. And boy,

23:57am I glad to see all of you guys on a day like today. Cameron, if I can, let's start with you. Prime Minister Karney was out repeating the need to get a fair deal. Do you expect any more measures to come out of the cabinet meeting? Are we kind of done with the escalation now? I think we all hope we're done. But the Prime Minister is carefully calibrating and I think trying to levy whatever he sees as strategic in response to what the United States is doing. Not just because that's what Canadians would expect. Canadians continue to support the Prime Minister standing up for our economy and pushing back against American measures that hurt us. But to try and demonstrate that we have some leverage and that there is pain that we can inflict as reluctantly as we're doing it in response to the pain that we're being, that is being inflicted upon us by by the Americans. That said, the longer term strategy is not this tit for TAT is not to continue responding with more tariffs and countermeasures. It's diversifying our

24:59economy, attracting investment into the country. That's what the investment summit next week is all about. That's what the visit to Europe is all about. That's what the other trade deals are all about. So he's doing both at the same time. One is short term, one is necessary, and it is unfortunate. The other is repositioning Canada to be much more competitive and less reliant on one single market. Peter, I kind of came into the day thinking maybe more escalation, but certainly we're in this for a pretty long haul. I listened to the Prime Minister talk about he's been going back and forth with the President. We know that James and Greer has been texting with Dominic Leblanc. The US response, he called it a modest change to the terror regime. Is there a window that could actually start talking again? Or is that, are we pushing that off until after the midterms? One would also. I think that the measure to calculated responses and to be clear, they're doing it on both sides of the border. They're hitting certain industries and certain provinces harder. The bigger question and the longer term discussion has to be around how long can we

26:06sustain this if we get to use a boxing analogy trading further blows? We may be able to hang with them in the early rounds, but if this goes 15 rounds, it's a Christmas of the odd. There was going to be massive, massive damage done to the Canadian economy. Paper cuts and pinpricks in their industries and certain states is not equivalent to the absolute amputation that can happen in the auto sector, steal, alone, even what we're seeing now bringing the Quebec dairy industry back into these discussions. How many concessions could we make even in a future discussion? We're in for a real world of pain, but getting back to at least face-to-face discussions has to be very much at the top of the priority for both the President and the Prime Minister, quite frankly. And so, dialogue and knowing that the lines of communication are open, that's a step ahead from where we were last week here. So, some efforts to get back into serious discussions as the Prime

27:11Minister himself has said, while simultaneously taking steps to sort of insulate the economy with trading with other countries, obviously expanding those trade relationships, the invests-fests that's happening, looking for ways in which we can find another market for our products. But the big prize in all of this is energy and oil and minerals. That's really what a lot of these countries, and I think we'll talk about that further in terms of the investment summit, but that's what other countries are looking for from Canada. Andrew Peter McKay, they're talked about trading further blows. One of my favorite economists talks about a trade war as one side punching itself in the face, while the other side punches itself in the face, and you just kind of weight each other out and hope that the other will stop before you do, should we be further escalating at this point, or should we take the American response and say, okay, here's a chance to try to take a step back. Yeah, my sense is that the American response was not merely as damaging as it could have been. I mean, they certainly could have gone

28:14further. They obviously opted not to for a number of reasons, and in fact, had to recalibrate what they didn't announce anyway, because they started to realize that the damage it was going to do in a number of swing states, just as your previous guest was talking about. I think it does help right now to wait a little bit, just take the temperature down. The calculation, I think, on the part of both governments is that after the midterms, the Americans are going to want to focus on other things. They've got big pressures, obviously, overseas with Iran. They've got a number of domestic pressures that they can't really easily address if they're fighting a war on multiple fronts. The other piece that I think is important to recognize is that we are getting to the point now where the next stage of escalation will be very damaging for both economies. I don't agree with Peter's view that it's only us who's going to be affected on this. The damage that could be done to the US if we in fact do put X-Bark tariffs on minerals or quotas, or if we put X-Bark tariffs on energy or on agricultural inputs. Those would have huge, huge impacts for the United States. It's already

29:17grappling with a problem that Diesel is hitting $6 a gallon this week. I think that this is a good point for us just to freeze this conversation in with the Americans. Wait for a little bit politically for things to calm down on both sides and figure out what the deal is. That $6 a gallon for Diesel is a remarkable thing. We knew it was coming. It was like $5.95 or $5.96 yesterday. That's never happened. That bleeds into the cost of just about everything. There's no question there is an impact growing in the United States that people are pushing back against. But Shachy, as we, like there's an argument made that just let the damage from these, the booze ban, the tourism ban, the energy problem as a result of the war in Iran, let that play out in the United States and let that change conversation there. But on the other hand, we have people who just had Susan Holton talking about her whole list of further escalations. Is there a risk here that the provinces start to take different measures that can sort of maybe not undermine, but lead to some cracks in the

30:17federal. They're limited, as we all know, in the types of measures that they can take, but the national unity aspect of things is always sort of this undercurrent just below the big smiley where all in this together surface. I just want to come back and also mention lumber. Peter didn't mention lumber, but on a point of regional principle, I feel like I need to say it every time I'm on this panel. So I'm going to do that. But it's, it's a look, how long will the provinces continue to sing in tune and pitch in unison? That's always a big upstanding question. Canadians for their part want their provinces to play nicely for the time being. So, premieres, take heed, keep that in mind. And it's also about finding the sweet spot in terms of when to go back to the negotiating table. Consider that only about a third of Canadians think that Canada's negotiating situation is one that is advantageous. Only about a third say we actually have the upper hand in this.

31:21The rest are divided between saying the situations between the United States and Canada are fairly even or that Canada has the weaker hand. And then I know a lot of people want to wait and see what happens with the midterms, 41% of Canadians we talk to. And this is also why one of the reasons we shouldn't always do things per public opinion. Because two and five in this country say wait until after the midterms. And then you've got another about 20% who say wait even longer than that, wait until Trump leaves office. I don't know. Yeah, that's a long time. That is, so you know, it's always good to know where you stand with people. It's not necessarily an argument for doing what they say. But what I would say is that there is a window. I don't know the size or the scope or the width of that window. But there is a window wherein the retaliatory tariffs, the countermeasures that we've announced have an opportunity to garner awareness, create more concern and urgency

32:29among Americans, US states, candidates who are running in the midterms. But at the same time, you want to get it done before the United States moves on and leaves us in a period of perpetual limbo. And it's how do you figure out when that sweet spot is? It's hard to know that. But I think that is that's going to be the test of this government is is picking their timing. I want to sort of pivot a little bit. Let's stay on topic with conservative leader Pierre Paulier who's down in the United States in the midst of all this. And he went on the show with CNBC, the financial news channel. Just take a listen to his position and the message that he's sending to Americans. Well, I'm not going to attack my prime minister on foreign soil. It's just not something I'm going to do. The administration hit us with tariffs first and everything escalated thereafter. And my mission here is to fight for my country not to score political points, domestically politics ends at the border. Cameron, I'd like you to pick up on that. It is,

33:36it was a very, I thought he did as well as he's done in immediate appearance in quite a while. How do you think his message, Paulier's message lands south of the border? I think well because he sounds responsible. And I'm glad that's the tone he took. Frankly, anything else, anything even veering into criticism of the prime minister or politics when he's in the United States, especially at this moment in time would have landed terribly back home. And then would have I think made his message diluted his message down south. So I think it was the right tone to take. The reality is he and any opposition leader in this situation, in this position, would be looking for relevance and would be struggling to find the right tone to take and the right message to land. Because the country is rallying behind the prime minister, rallying behind the flag. Everybody's feeling patriotic. Everybody has one outlet for their anger and frustration. And that is the United States president right now. Domestic politics seems to be taking a back seat.

34:40So how can he, how can Pierre Paulier have contributed to the discussion going to the US, standing up for Canada, saying he supports what the government's doing even in broad strokes and trying to raise awareness about the fact that this trade war is not just bad for us, but it's also bad for Americans. It's bad for American businesses. It's bad for American consumers at a time when cost of living crisis is top of mind. At a time when we're heading into midterm elections and there's a lot of pressure on the president to make life more affordable for people, this is the worst thing that can be happening to the US economy. It's to be picking a fight with no end in sight and absolutely no positive outcome for them. So you know that it's a, I think he's taken the right, the right tone and the challenge will be whether he can maintain it. And then what he says when he comes back home, if he's able to maintain that type of message. Peter, this isn't a uniquely weird time with the whole Trump presidency, the trade war, all of it. I think it's been a uniquely weird time to be in opposition later. And I think maybe

35:41Pierre Paulier has struggled to find his exact sort of best role in all of this and where he can be most effective. Is this where he can be most effective and is this kind of the right move for him? I think it is. And I think describing it as refreshing and earnest and patriotic from a Canadian perspective is fair comment. And I think he also took a lane in terms of making the case to Americans, which isn't unusual. We're seeing more and more of this. Pierre Paulier was on the Joe Robins show. I mean, let's not forget Mark Ernie before he was prime minister announced he was running on the John Daley show in the United States. So this has been a bit of a trend for Canadian politicians of late. But back to the central issue, I think Americans hearing directly from on calculated thoughtful voices describing this as painful on both sides of the border and mutual assured destruction. This can only help both, you know, Pierre Paulier politically,

36:45but more importantly, telling Americans in no uncertain terms that we don't want to be in this conflict. We value the relationship. Here we are on the eve of 9-11. I can't help but think it and contemplate what would happen. God forbid if something like 9-11 was to repeat itself. Well, what I think would happen is that Canadians would once again accept people in harm's way with open arms and do what we did in Gander and Halifax and other parts of Canada and welcome Americans into our homes and into our lives. That is an important and powerful message as well that we will get past this. I for one though, don't subscribe to the fact that it's going to be all wrapped up and once we get more democratic senators and congresspersons in the house that's going to fix everything. We've seen the president time and time again go around congress and you know and use this veto, use executive orders. So even if and nobody can really say

37:47within the certainty what the outcome of the midterms will be, but even if that happens, even if it's a clean sweep for the democrats, I don't think that's the end of the problem. I think, you know, getting back to negotiations is really the only way that we are going to assure some form of not only de-escalation but getting down to the brass tax and negotiating Christmas. And Shachy, I've been thinking about that exact point that Peter just made that a trump that has been wounded in the midterm elections that's angry and lashing out might be a trump that's harder to deal with than the trump we're seeing today. Yeah, perhaps a less stable genius as he likes to call himself, he calls himself a stable step. So it will be destabilizing for him and we've more or less heard exactly those words from many of the surrogates. We've heard it from Ambassador Huxer, we've heard it from others that don't necessarily count on the midterms as this magic one that will erase Canada's problems. Instead think about it as think about the consequences and

38:50the amount of executive power despite all the checks and balances that will be at the president's disposal to continue to make things not great for this country. I just want to come back to Mr. Polly, I agree with Cameron and Peter, I think he had a good day today as opposition leader. We know however that for every good day he has consistency is not necessarily been his strong suit, there are days of unforstairs of lashing out at different factions within the conservative party that lead many of us to sort of shrug and go, what was that about? So yes, more of this please from the opposition leader. And I would point out that any opposition leader would be struggling in a situation like this for relevance, but it's not a reason for the liberals on the other hand to sort of rub their hands together gleefully and go, ha ha, we have nothing to worry about because at the same time Canadians are rallying around this government and the way it's handling the US. They're continuing to put

39:55cost of living, inflation, health care, the overall performance of the economy at the top of their issues list. The US issue is not the number one issue in this country today, it is cost of living in affordability. It continues to be the the the bett-noir that the dogs and haunts every government regardless of stripe. And when Pierre Pollyève is actually on his game talking about those issues domestically, he tends to be able to get more traction. It is a challenging time in terms of all of the headlines and who Canadians are channeling right now is the boogie man, but you know, that those issues are not going away. On the other hand, Mr. Pollyève has had a lot of time as as a leader. He's been there for four years and I look at some of his other ongoing challenges. We put data out today that shows that he continues to really be challenged in terms of how people view him, perceptions issues. He still is a net unfavorable view among every

40:57single age and gender demographic in this country with the exception of 35 to 54 year old men. That's it. That's all he's got. He doesn't have women in any age demographic. He doesn't have younger men. He doesn't have older men. And that has been something that dogs him continuously because of tone. So let's see if he can keep up this tone. Andrew, quick last word do you prefer, take a break? Yeah, look, so I think part of what we're missing here is we're focused way too much on the style of what he delivered today and not on the substance. He actually laid out a very important point of view of where he wants to take things, which is that he's arguing we need to double down on the relationship with the Americans, the fortress Amcam. And this is a notion that was popular. It is certainly popular still in some conservative realms and had a certain amount of cachet a few months ago. But I think what he's actually starting to lay out are a set of markers to compare where Kanye is taking things and the liberals in terms of a new relationship with Europe. This is an issue that I think is going to be the bigger conversation within Canadian politics.

41:59And it's not an entirely bad way for him to start to frame that up. Now, do Canadians currently believe that or do they prefer the approach to Mark Carney suggesting which is the broad diversification, maybe a tighter relationship with Europe, whatever that means? Those are the pieces that need to get sorted out. The other thing he has not addressed that at some point is going to have to be addressed is what are the red lines that a conservative leader, a conservative prime minister, Pauliev, would not move on. He's right now, it got three different conservative premiers arguing, three different positions on the alcohol ban. We have two different very different views in terms of what should be happening on Dairy coming out of the Western conservatives versus those in the Ontario and Quebec. And he's not been able to reconcile this. And I think until he's able to figure out how to bring the conservative party together behind a vision, he's really just addressing the factional in fighting with his own party.

43:01That's it for today. If you like this episode, please follow the pod and catch our next live show on CDC News Network. We're on weekdays at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. I'm Peter Armstrong. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca-slaj-podcasts.