Analyzing Packers Player Props!!!

0:00Music Welcome in everyone to another edition of the Packet A podcast. Thank you for joining us on another marvelous Monday and There's several times that I make this comment throughout the season, but it is a particularly marvelous Monday because it's the very last Monday before the start of the NFL season. Your marvelous Monday crew is here with you as usual, Dan Connick and Monty Moore and Camille Davis. Guys, how are you enjoying the very last week of nothing to do? No, no, no pre scheduled anything on on your weekend, the last football free weekend before the slog begins.

1:05It's actually kind of an interesting one because we still have the badgers that are playing tonight as we're recording this. We get to watch football. Yeah, we get to watch a football game at Lambo on a Sunday. So this is like a it's a very much like a warm up. See, and for me, I am not I don't really watch college football too much. And if I did, I would not be watching to root on the badgers. I can tell you that which always surprises people because I'm very anti like Wisconsin badgers. I went to market. So I just got a thing about Wisconsin, even though we don't have a football team in market. It doesn't matter. It's still Wisconsin. I'm not here for that. Interested. Hope they lose every game, which I know will hurt my like my rating amongst most people when they hear that, but I got to live my own personal truth. But I'm excited. It should be a beautiful day today, you know, holiday weekend. So I'm just going to enjoy it spend some time with family, see some friends because once the season starts. It's tough to get out. It's tough to get out.

2:13Yeah, this is so this is not only this the last weekend with no NFL football for me, but it's the last weekend before my son's soccer season starts. And I found out last week that his very first game is smack in the middle of Packers Vikings week one. Of course. And I'm like does nobody have a calendar who's scheduled this. I'm like, so thankfully, like thankfully my dad is coming up and I'm I'm expect because he's I'm I'm coaching. So I'm going to be like on the field. So I'm going to be like kind of just like scoop like you know running on the sidelines. Everyone's on like score score. Yeah, like you got to give me something. So yeah, I it's a you know for any of any of the parents out there. I think, you know, you can you can have you can relate to that pain of, you know, like sports going on at the let me ask you let's before we jump into our stuff today, because this is this brought up something that I just thought about.

3:21Did you guys growing up when you played sports, did you have a sport that directly conflicted with watching NFL football ever. No, I was thankfully I didn't either. No, I was like softball and volleyball like in middle school and whatnot. And that that had no no effect on this. Okay, seventh and eighth grade I played on our golf team at school and they always played games Sunday, Monday's afternoon in the fall. And so you always had to have a parent walk around with you and luckily we had one dad that had a like a small portable radio. And so we could listen to whatever. Whatever, whatever game was whatever game was like on Westwood one or whatever we could just listen to the game while we were trying to trying to golf. So some of the worst golf scores I've ever put up in my in my life. But you know, thankfully that is a problem now is we have NFL football back and we get the schedule our lives around NFL football once again.

4:29So as we get ready for the start of the season, want to take a look at some of the interesting player props from around from around the league. Well, not around the league packers related, but you know, from different different areas, different sports books, whatever. We made our own bold predictions before the season started, which if any, if any sportsbook got wind that we would be willing to bet on on those, I think they would gladly take take our money. Based on based on what we threw out each year, but let's look at some some player props here for for the packers. A lot of over unders odds on a couple different things and just kind of see see where we all stand. So let's, I mean, let's start. So let's start really easy with with Jordan love and most of these come from a fan duel and right now, fan duel has Jordan love over under for the season for yards past at 3,700 and a half.

5:51How do you guys feel about that 3,700 and a half. I think I'm leaving one my team going over with that. I mean, we've everything we've kind of heard is, you know, he's taking more command of the offense. I mean, some call plays in the second half of the last preseason game. Like he, this is, if there's, if there's a year where they're going to kind of just like give him the keys. I mean, obviously with the running back situation being in flux, like we have no idea what the running game is going to look like. I think they're going to they have to lean on him now and this not to say, you know, they're going to, you know, this isn't going to look like one of the McCarthy teams where they just like decide to never run the ball. They're not they're not going to abandon it, but the wide receiver group now is everyone has a defined role like we've talked about before. Like Tucker craft is back. We know like the offense is going to run through him as much as possible. So yeah, I think he's going to be, I think they're going to be throwing the ball a lot more than they have the last couple of years. So I'm going over.

6:58Yeah, I'm with you on that one, Monty, especially with the status of the wide receiver or the running back room. I'm some question marks there and hearing that number, I had to just kind of look at how many yards Jordan has thrown for. He's played 15 games the last two seasons here. And looking at his first year starting, that's when he crossed the 4,000 yard. He hasn't since then like he's been around 3300 yards the last two seasons. So I would think with what we talked about with the running back room, with what we've heard Matt LaFour reference as Monty was saying about Jordan, I'm having so much control over the offense now. I would imagine that his raw just passing yards would go up this year, even without the running back room thing, but those two things together. So I would imagine that over. Yeah, I think the only thing that I think gives me pause with any of this number is, because everything gets said is, I think spot on and I think it's the prevailing thought of

8:06Packer fans, Packer media, national media, that this is going to be a much more Jordan love focused offense moving forward. I think my only caveat to that is this those every all of that makes sense. If the Packers offense is successful, right? And that includes that means like Jordan love stays healthy. The offensive line plays better than they did last year, right? And so I think I think it's all it all leans that way and it should. But I think my only caveat to that is saying like, okay, it's not just necessarily a bet on the style of the Packers are going to want to play on offense. So bet on, are they going to be able to do it successfully based on yeah, multiple, multiple, I mean actors, all the stuff we just talked about is rendered completely in it like useless if the offensive line isn't playing up to par.

9:17Like they have to be better than they were last year and that's realistically a big question mark, both in terms of performance and health at this point. So it's definitely a definitely a wild card. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, okay, sticking with Jordan love here. And this this one I don't I don't have I don't have the numbers like Camille you you you should probably be able to fact check me here. I don't know what he's thrown for the past several years, but this one seems low to me his passing touchdowns total for the year. Set it 26 and a half. Am I crazy that that just seems low? That's about what he had last year to be fair. I think I think it might have been 26. 23, 23, 23 last year, 25, the year before and 32 in that first year starting. I think it's only 23. Yeah, I would agree it does feel low, but when you hear the last couple of years, it's right in line.

10:24But if we're going yeah, I mean if we're going over on yards and one of the reasons being you know the running game like I'm going to go over on touchdowns because Josh Jacobs got so many, you know, three, five yard touchdowns, they don't really throw the ball down there in the deep red zone. And now I think they're going to have to start doing a little bit more. So I'll go over on that too. So then the question thinking about that is where else will the touchdowns come from. Do we foresee this being a situation where they end up in a lot of situations at the goal line where they're just unable to, you know, actually get the ball in throwing it so they have to rely on the running aim a little bit more. And you said 26 and a half is where it's at. I think that one actually might take the under touchdowns are just so. They can be fluky in a way where it's like you just never for sure. Yeah, like you never know exactly where they're coming from. But if I go the under, then that means I'm thinking that the run game's going to just get a lot of.

11:29I shouldn't say a lot, but they're going to get their fair share of touchdowns there too. Actually, you know what? I'm going to go with the over if Jordan love is actually healthy for the entire regular season. I think that's an important. Oh yeah, I'm assuming health on these as well. Yeah, like if he's healthy for all 17 and he plays in all 17 maybe 16 because the last game doesn't matter. Quote unquote, give me the over in that situation. But if Jordan loves playing, you know, 13, 14, 15 games, then the under looks a little bit more appealing, I think. Yeah, for sure. And something else that I think. To keep in to keep in like the back of your head here is. I wonder. I wonder how much any of this has changed. Like when when these odds sort of came out has there been changes. And I hate to I hate to talk about this sort of thing in this in this context, but that Josh Jacobs.

12:34Initial court hearing has been was moved up greatly. I think it's now in two weeks maybe or actually I think it's this week. I think September 10th. Yeah. And so there's a there's a there's a likelihood that his situation at least has more clarity moving forward much sooner than the Packers were ever expecting. And I just have a feeling I even because this is this is the frustrating thing about Malif or sometimes even if Jordan comes out. And this is a Jordan love lead offense. The first let's say six to eight weeks right and things are things are really working well. When Josh Jacobs if if Josh Jacobs becomes available to play this year. I have a feeling that Matt LaFlor at some point will try to force feed Josh Jacobs and could disrupt any sort of offensive.

13:41Production through the air that's been kind of developed. So that's another kind of just wrinkled that I think it's so in and there's like now that the Packers could have clarity on the Josh Jacobs situation much sooner. Like you said, Camille, the running game. Do we get into more of those situations and then also does the running game the running back situation change for the Packers where they all of a sudden now are more inclined to go back to going, you know, 52, 48 split run pass in offense all of a sudden, you know, at certain point this season. I'm still going to take the over on this just because I think I still think regardless of what happens with Jacobs, I think I think they have really developed the trust with Jordan love this season. I think that they move forward with it and I think he's going to find some real number wide success behind it. But yeah, just another thing to kind of keep keeping the back of your mind there. Interestingly enough, also you can't find any Josh Jacobs lines on any sports book.

14:49You want to write that's the right. That's right. Yeah. All right. All right. Let's. So I found I found two. Two players on the offense that did have official lines from fan dual Christian Watson and Tucker craft, which makes sense. Two biggest offensive weapons. So let's let's look at these two together since we're looking at receiving yards for both of these players. So the fan dual line for Christian watching for Watson for the season is 825 and a half receiving yards. Tucker craft is at 750 and a half. So in a sense, cut it down, cut it kind of down the middle. They're they're they're anticipating both of these players probably getting about 800 yards.

15:50Yeah. For the season. Yeah, average, like average it out. You kind of like look at it that way. So 800, which I think two years ago was one of my bold predictions was like two players hit 800 literally 800 yards. Yeah, receiving. So 825 for Watson 750 for craft. Where do you guys fall? I think I'm under on Watson and over on craft. I was going to go the opposite. Oh, what are you the opposite? Let's talk this through. Yeah. Okay. So part of this is like we know Watson's like their big play guy, right? But he's he's developed as more into more of he's more than just a their deep ball guy now, but he's their best option when it comes to getting the ball down field still. But now that he can run that more complete route tree and he's got like a lot of trust between him and Jordan.

16:50I just feel like those bigger plays will lend itself to that yardage more and craft. My my pick for craft an interesting prop would be I want to see I'd love him like an over under and like his number of receptions because I think he's going to have a ton of catches. But maybe not necessarily those that like big play yardage. So that that's kind of my justification. I still think craft is going to be option one a if Christian is, you know, option one like flip flop whichever you think whichever one of those guys you think is going to be the focus. But that's just kind of the way that I look at it. Okay. That makes sense. I was looking at it more so of like with the why receiver room itself. We know that there was a lot of conversation over the summer about them getting a little bit more streamlined with the room, making roles more clear more established. And I think we know what to expect from Christian Watson the season again for Christian. And it's how many years you can be able to play this year because he hasn't even crossed 700 receiving yards and his career in a single season.

17:57And large part because of injuries affecting him, which has been an unfortunate part of his career so far. So if he's healthy, the sky should be the limit for him and he's able to clear that easily. But I think with the injury history plus. I think Matthew golden is in store for for quite a year. And again, we still don't quite know how like the number one option will shake out. I will lean more towards you, Monty and think that that would be Tucker craft of all the different options that they have on this team as like who will get the ball most frequently. And because of that, it makes me think like, okay, well, if he's going to be getting the ball more frequently and we know Tucker craft is a yak monster. Like he is somebody I could see definitely hitting the over on his yardage while Christian Watson could be around it, but probably what most likely be under it. Yeah, I think I think the Tucker craft one is is low in my opinion, at least I maybe not low, but it's it's very achievable.

19:05Just because I want to I want to look up exactly what he did last year here because he was so he gets hurt. What three quarters basically three quarters of the way through the same. He only played eight games last year and had almost 500 receiving yards. Yeah, he was he was like leading the season. 2024 he had something. Yeah. Yeah, the year before he had 707 yards, he was on pace for one of the one of the best seasons as for a tight end impact or history. So I understand like you, you're kind of you're kind of saying, okay, is he going to be able to replicate that, but I mean it's 750 yards. In this offense, I just I feel like the way I feel like it's it's achievable for both of these guys basically kind of like both using bits of what you guys said Christian Watson.

20:07He says he's probably going to get less receptions, but more yards Tucker craft will get more receptions, but less yards, but then again, like it's craft has a way of creating his own yards afterwards. True. I mean, I have to go, I have to go over on on both of these. I feel like, Monti, you mentioned the the receptions side of things. So for Christian Watson. Draft Kings has total receptions for the year at 51 and a half. Okay. And then Tucker craft the only the only place you could get an odd is price picks. They have it at 52 and a half. So I mean basically dead on dead on the same. Even split, which makes which like exactly almost kind of makes sense. Like they're both they're both probably going to get they're expected to get roughly around the same number of of catches Christian Watson's going to get more yards out of those big explosive explosive place.

21:17So now for both of them. Oh, interesting. Okay, the. Fan dual number for total touchdowns in the year for both of them is actually the exact same. They have it at five and a half. Over under. For okay for both of them. Which and I just have I have Tucker craft numbers up already. He's he hit seven in 2024 and six last year before the injury. So again, it's it's it's now like you start to you start to wonder the the touchdown side of things. So if we're expecting a lot of touchdowns coming from Jordan love. Okay, it probably makes more sense that they will hit this they will hit these overs. But as you guys have kind of pointed. Matthew Golden is primed not just because of who he is, but because of what the packers really like out of him. To have a really prominent role in this offense. So how much how much is there to go to go around how many touchdowns is John Smith going to catch this year, you know, like there's there's there's other people that are going to that you know it's not just going to be the three wide receivers and Tucker craft catching touchdowns. So yeah, but I still think five and a half for both very achievable.

22:42Yeah. Okay, so a couple here now this this one I wanted and it makes sense nobody really has any player odds like prop prop odds for micaparsons at this point right. It makes sense. He's not even sure when he's coming back at this point. So to try and put some sort of odds out there for micaparsons is is tough. But I did want to bring up a couple here that like basically like awards or milestones for for micaparsons. And so this one I'll start with here come back player of the year. I think correct me if I'm wrong micaparsons and Tucker craft have a fairly equal shot at being come back player of the year for the packers at least.

23:51Yeah, I was gonna say overall this is almost a home's award already. It's right. Yeah, unless unless he is unless he is dead average league wise. Yeah, they will give this to back to the homes. Yeah, yeah. But still you can get odds at plus 4,000 at bandal for micaparsons as come back player of the year. Tucker craft is going off at plus 25 hundred. Which I guess makes sense, but I just I wonder like I think when micaparsons comes back he's going to blow the doors off of off of everything even even if he's only playing three quarters of the season. So bet against micaparsons at your own at your own peril. Yeah, it doesn't feel like a smart thing, especially with everything that we've been hearing him talk about to about what he's looking for when he gets ready and he's like, don't worry about me like y'all be worried about whoever it is that I'm on a field against because I have so much pent up frustration to get out like I have been like.

25:02It's like a dog on a leash to a certain degree worth like just let me off of this leash and wait till you see what happens and I know you never really know what guys are going to look like post injury. But I have a lot of faith that micaparsons is going to come back looking fantastic because of the care he puts in his body and the drive and the will and termination that he has with everything that he attacks. Here's a question since we're talking about come back player of the year. This come back player of the year only means coming back from an injury right I think they've changed it now to that I do believe you have to be coming off an injury okay because I was like you know Aaron Donald is probably going to do some things that people are going to be like well like he's coming back from. From something else defensive player of the year you can get plus 8000 for for micaparsons which last year he got he got votes for.

26:14He did defensive player of the year and he's the only first team all pro I believe. I think he did if micaparsons if miles Garrett doesn't have the best season for a past rusher in the history of the entire league. It's probably a much closer race in my opinion even with the injury so if miles Garrett can you know repeat history two years two years in a row then it might be a moot point but. Okay I think that's all that's all the player props that I could I could find for us for our players this year I think it makes sense that. Vegas kind of starts to go this way with everything we looked at but man I don't know if you are if you are a betting man and you live inside you know the. State state lines of.

27:16Where you know wherever things are you go to the potawatomi casino. I'm in client to lay money on a lot of that hitting I'm very I think it's just I'm very I'm very optimistic about what this offense can produce yeah I am to and. We go into the every season with a certain level of optimism of just like yeah this is going to be the year where this happens or man Jordan love is so close to breaking out but like it feels like now especially with. So much of the media attention all the packers kind of be like we don't really know what to make of them at this point they we've been high on our name really. Lift up to it it is what it is at this point with the packers I think like now could be the perfect season the perfect time for this team to actually start to hit some of those projections that they had in years past where it finally all comes together for them so I'm with you on that. Yeah I mean there's. This is obviously a big year for so many players that have that have been the core of this team you know since 2023 so a lot of these guys are in their escalator years and they're you know now they're they're no longer the youngest team in the league they've a lot of young veteran players now in that sense so.

28:28It's kind of like you're we're tempted to take all these overs and assume the progression a because we're fans would be just because that's kind of the way that they've been setting up this team to perform. Yeah one last one for you here guys as we we are recording Sunday morning so Notre Dame Wisconsin at Lambo has not happened yet. The official line for that game tonight from Fandule is Wisconsin plus 20 and a half. Spread so the question yes yes as a as a reminder Western Michigan was a 29 and a half point to Michigan was constant which is a big 10 team is a 20 and a half point. Call it a home I know they're not Notre Dame is officially the home team for this right because of the way.

29:32I'm pretty sure Notre Dame is considered the home team for this because Wisconsin got to be the home team when they played at was it rigley they played at. I think so technically I believe so technically Wisconsin is a 20 and a half point road dog. But does was I'm not even asked about winning does Wisconsin cover 20 and a half against Notre Dame. Oh man I don't know what I'm going to say so I'm going to say it. You know what I hope I honestly I don't think so like I mean I don't touch down that's three. I enjoy watching college football to be fair but I don't follow it like super closely and now it's even harder because guys are on a team for like six weeks and playing somewhere else but. I feel like the badgers the last couple years have been stuck in this state of.

30:33We might be pretty good and then they just completely don't follow through so that's like a believe it when I see it type deal so but yeah you're right three touchdowns is quite a bit. I'm going to know I got it through some pessimism i've been too optimistic today. Come to my side you'll convince me to embrace the negativity. Yeah as as a as a Ohio State fan this one is this one is very this one is very nice for me because like Matty said you get to watch Lambo field on a Sunday night. And I would be happy with both teams losing so whatever happens is is gravy for me at this point yeah that first week it i'm the same way Matty it's like Ohio State opened with ball state and i'm like good this is a time I can get to learn all the names of these new players because I don't know half of them and they're all going to play against ball state so I can I can actually learn the players that are going to play on this on this team.

31:38I did look up the Wisconsin starting quarterback is Colton Joseph which might be the widest quarterback name I've ever heard. Colton Joseph Wisconsin quarterback feels like it feels like a made up name from like draft day or something yeah like well you know. Star quarterback Colton Joseph out of Wisconsin it just it feels they they they marry too well to make sense so we'll see how Colton does I guess so today I think if it was if it was anything more than 21. Then I would start to question because like 20 and a half that's so if they win by 21 a three touchdown score they cover the they cover the spread. That's very easy to do that the numbers wise to six wise it just makes sense so yeah I don't think Wisconsin covers this.

32:45The spread which is crazy to say because I know maybe maybe they'll maybe they'll need an extra second put on at lambow to for a game when it will marry. To save their season we'll see but that is going to do it for us on the pack of eight podcast thank you for listening each and every week we will have new episodes the rest of this week on the audio side in the YouTube side as well with Andy new episodes every single day so make sure you check all of that out at Pack of the podcast is where you can follow all of our all of our stuff all of our content all three of us are on social media as well at Pack of Day podcast or all three of us are on social media. I'm on blue sky at Dan of the man oh guys working people follow you think if I'm on blue sky as well I'm on Twitter at for turgison F.E.R.D. to our G.S.O.N. I am also on blue sky Twitter Instagram threads all the spots Camille Monet C.A.M. I.L.O.E. M.O.N. A.E.

33:49perfect we will see you back again next week when we'll be breaking down Packers Vikings week one until then as always stay safe and go packo go packo