Yen Surges 1.5% as BOJ Hike Bets Build

0:00Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the monomarket where every day we discuss all things to do with the markets. That is the crypto market, the stock market and any other market where we make some or a lot of money getting into the show today looking forward to discussing a lot of the activity. There are some interesting things going on. I have got legendary and Hershey in the co-seats with me today. We are ready to get into them just to remind our friends before we do nothing. We say on this show it is financial advice. The market is very risky. We don't know anything for sure. The third of September, the yen has surged 1.5% as the B.O.J. hike that is built. We have seen one yen intervention already that was at least part of the kickoff in this surge in risk assets as people think that this is going to continue to devalue the dollar.

1:10We will break this down in further detail here. Then we will switch it to more crypto information. The second Robin Hood chain token listed on Robin Hood, which is pretty huge, we will get into that as well. Then we will talk Trump considering declaring their wrong wall over as bonds are continuing to be elevated. We will get into all those things during the course of today's show. In other headlines, we have the news that ADP perils are weaker than expected in August. We also have the news that memecoin and equity antics enter the NASDAQ as microcap mushroom seller farmme surges 350%. I have a feeling that then went on to collapse. This is an interesting thing happening at the moment on Robin Hood where these meme coins are being paired with equity stocks on chain causing a little bit of mania.

2:14The company's co-founder Fred Esom is seeking control of at least three Venezuelan oil fields, a pretty wild career switch. If you ask me, Hype Strat digital asset treasure company filed an AK after printing $1 billion worth of shares and it's now seeking authorization to issue up to $2.5 billion more. One of the few digital asset treasure companies that is doing well and looking healthy because they chose a good asset to buy at a good price that is hyper liquid. The 30-year treasury yields has traded above 5% for 56 trading days so far in 2026. The longest streak in any year since 2006. I will talk about those yields. In the final headline, $400 billion of standard charted launch is institutional spot crypto trading in the UAE on the more institutional side. The Robin Hood meme coin artificial in new temporarily broke $300 million market cap and flipped cash cap to become the number one Robin Hood chain meme by market cap.

3:23Fortunately, I hold both but not enough of the former. In video now accounts for 8% of the S&P, 500 market cap pretty interesting data point. Finally, stock market is now at a 33 on the fair greed index. It's the most fearful level in two months which is pretty interesting given the word just 2% away from all time highs. Getting into the price action to get up to speed with everything else you need to know on the price side. Bitcoin is sitting just up a percent to 77.7. The price is up to 2.4. The hype is up to 81. It's up to 2% to 100. That's on the crypto majors. The cash up 5% to 835. All of these are kind of range bound at the moment. It seems a little bit of a ceiling on some of the assets they can't push past. And then they're just kind of range bound as Robin Hood chain goes crazy. Those are the crypto majors but oil is also up another 3% to 92.

4:26In videos also up 3% to 224. It's just a green day across the board. Micro on up 3% silver up 3%. I think gold moved 2.5% as well back to 4.4. So what business gold had dipping beneath 4.3 K yesterday. I thought that was a clear bid as we saw that yesterday but I didn't get around to pressing the button. So I was busy pumps up 5% at 4.4 bill cash cut up a percent to 260 male. As you mentioned some of the other stuff on Robin Hood we're going to do a bit more dedicated segment. Dells up 5% to 4.85 until up a percent to 89. So that is that is the what's going on across the board on in crypto and in the main markets today. I'm going to pause there for a second to catch up with the boys see what we're thinking coming over to you here. So that's the update for now. What's catching your attention here?

5:28I mean obviously Ponds but we're going to talk about that. I have another 40 on on the day. The other things that I'm looking at is S&P is having a green day again close up almost half percent yesterday. And what I'm really curious about because it is a more significant holding of mine is what apples going to do with the next week or so. We have Wednesday is it September 9th when they will have new iPhone lineup they will have the foldable iPhone which is the one which I'm going to get. But apparently it's going to be pressed anywhere between two to two and a half grand which is going to make it more expensive than Samsung's foldables which probably is going to translate anywhere to 2500 600 if not more euro. With all the taxes and everything we like to add on top here. So I'm but they do expect another 14 bill or so from foldable sales is the first time they're entering the foldable market. So I'm quite curious to see what Apple will do next week is flat on the day. It has been an interesting buy for me it's also has been a topic of discussion on the show when it comes to their strategy to all things they I

6:39are holding a bit back and not doing that cap X raised which others are doing. But what we're also expecting with the new I was upgrade then is a proper Siri AI integration where Siri actually is becoming screen aware this time for real. Siri is going to see what's on you. Well this time might be different I hope that this time might be different. But embarrassing but in all seriousness if it's not different this time and now you really have the expectations and we've seen the demo and we've seen Siri being aware what you're looking at the screen and acting on them. Then I think Apple is going to have a bit of a sell off even even though it might only be a short term one but the stock market will react I think if if Siri is not delivering on that end. I think it's a good point I actually love for them to not deliver and for it to be bad because then the market can get disappointed and then it will just think then it will start looking forward again will and ask question or what if they do fix it then it will actually be worth

7:46something again and then it will go up on the expectation that they're going to fix it in the future. This is one of the funny things about Apple they just never have figured out the AI Siri thing and but it just never matters like Tim Cook has been there for how long going down as one of the best CEOs of all time taking over Steve Jobs adding I think some insane number to the market cap and it doesn't know how to do AI at all but it didn't matter in the end for Apple and just just imagine what they would do if they did figure it out so you can always leave that question open ended and when they do because eventually someone will integrate with them to make it seamless then it should be a lot more valuable. It's so interesting that they're still getting away with the incremental improvements we have the airport's max right and I upgraded to the second gen which is absurd because it's basically almost the same. Yes, it has the gen one has the H1 the Jane to has the H2 chip in it's supposed to sound a bit better doesn't really make that big of a difference but the significant differences with the gen 2 you can now plug in your SPC cable and connect via usbc and you can listen like while you charge.

8:55At which you couldn't do with the gen one it's absurd that you pay six hundred dollars for headphones and you pay another six hundred so you can listen to music via cable which should be a standard thing for something that has a USB C port but they're getting away with with these incremental upgrades and apparently there's enough people buying that either way. Indeed I like that idea actually so okay so this is going to release on Wednesday let's keep an eye out on that to see where the stock price goes on that day. All right checking with Hershey in a second just checking with the chat first as well doubly to a good morning wanted to GDWP morning to tone world Mufasa Corona in the chat English coming in saying maybe they can't push past this range because maybe we're still in a macro downtrend Bitcoin has still put in a lower high there is no confirmation of a reversal why would you talk like that English why would you talk like that that is not what we want to talk about. And look realistically I mean I think we have more or less flipped flipped bullish here it would be very very surprising to me if we if we kind of reversed all of this in some capacity and if we did I'd be a significant bidder now even if we're going to go lower I just think I almost can't even contemplate it I can't even articulate the scenario where we would go lower than I'm going to do that.

10:20The scenario where we would go lower than where we were because if you go through the events which happened which when we were at the bottom we refuse to go lower than it kind of makes no sense for us to go much more lower and Hershey curious for your thought here on that do you think we're in this kind of you know do you think we're not necessarily out of the words how you seeing things how you feeling how you doing since first time. We've had you back on for a while as well. Yeah yeah it's been a hilarious time to take a two week break and I was also in in Portugal and Spain or last six days trying really hard not to be on my phone all the time. And yeah I think that when you see coins like we'll talk about later going over 500 million imponds over 300 million in AI artificial you knew clearly that's not you know bear market behavior and people are just ready to bid stuff there was a lot of 64 million dollar pre sale for an NFT mint or not pre sale but capital committed last week like those are things that we've been waiting for for a year now so.

11:30I do know how you know it when you go a year from being in bull market territory you both forget how to believe again but you also forget how nasty the shakeouts can be even when we are in bull territories so yes you know like even in the best conditions even when we think back to the heyday of 2021 or 2023 we had these massive wicks that you know completely liquidate people's portfolios left everyone feeling like how are they so dumb not to not to see it coming so. We should we should be aware that that's coming but but for me i'm still risk on. And finally I was underperforming my phone account underperforming the Robinhood on chain season until last week where i'm finally starting to to see some out performance which is great but maybe is a concerning sign that I was the underperforming lagger that's now finally making some money so. So you know I think that's always something you got to be aware of in yourself but but overall i'm allocated and optimistic.

12:31Interesting interesting interesting yeah I think. Yeah this is an interesting spot if you haven't hit anything yeah right like I think one thing that has happened even including to myself right like I was in ponds for example i missed it. So I think that's the big move up because I rotated out of that one at just the exact exact wrong time and I think the over rotation will kill a lot of people obviously i've done well on a bunch of other other things but the over rotation and the speed of it now and the way that things are just ripping in your face or like every other day at different out like even in the same way I think it's really hard if you're going to if you're going to start chasing a bunch of stuff like you I think you were talking about I think we you in the a icon her she like how long did you need to sit in that and not and stick to it before what was it was it a 10 x in the end of five x 20.

13:36Yeah I guess we can touch on a more interesting ideas but I'll go over it a bit right now I was actually just reviewing it this morning so I was in it at I bought it first at seven mil market cap which would have been you know this is for people getting concerts is the AI token which is paired with Nvidia. Artificial in you so the moment that all of the fees or a good percentage of the fees excuse me from the long got xyz ecosystem got reverted towards the AI dog when that became the central part of the ecosystem not just its own token that's when I immediately started being interested. And that's when I bought it around seven mil market cap with pretty low size I then sold down like 30% at five mil market cap so I could right now be extremely mad looking at that 35 x that I missed out on but I kept paying attention to it kept you know just kind of reading the tea leaves and then I bought back in at 45 mil market cap with enough size to basically be the same as if I had held from that five mil original smaller entries you know I four x the size four x higher.

14:43And bought in around 45 mil and now I'm still holding and I think it's around 280 something like that at present so so yeah that's my first like good win on the Robinhood chain but but yeah like until five days ago I was break even so it has been even though there's just crazy money being made left and right you just have to like stay vigilant and and just take your spot when it comes because I at the 45 mil market cap I was buying. I was buying. I was buying a top right. Yeah yeah. Of course but look I the reason why I love this story and yeah maybe you're going to talk it maybe you could think maybe later in the show talks us about why you're still holding and explain the trade idea why you think you're still in but the reason why I think that story super helpful right now is that as you say people will think the money's being left made left right center which is true that is true right now. But also you've got to keep in your in the foreground that okay look one week ago you're breaking even it's going to it's going to happen in this market where you go through a period where you are under pulling the market you know the right things that's okay and I think one of the things that happens is people will either chop themselves up or

15:58um you know yes lots of money's being made also lots of money's being lost realistically so for example for me yesterday I'm like oh great cash cards up huge and cash guys one of my larger meme coin positions first and that in a hundred a mill in fact I honestly like really early then sold it and then got back into the hundred added more 200 and I just feel like I want to sit in this. And so you know it's gone up to 280 or something it went up to 280 yesterday maybe even touched 300 and so okay great this specific position is up like 30% in a day and there's like oh my other large position and some down 30% in a day wonderful like you're you again completely offset so this is what I mean like it can look like people's portfolios or when people talk about things like oh if someone tells you about a five X they're in. People just aren't talking about the times when they've lost the same exact same amount on the six other things and so yes there's a lot of opportunity at the moment that it's just I like the story that you told because like look.

17:08It was just break even was just break even last week it's fine the right position came you took advantage now you can talk talk a bit more about that next next position. It is helpful. Yeah it's the guy with the pickaxe you know going through the tunnel with the diamonds right ahead but I will say that you know the cautionary tale that maybe you guys have already flagged in the last week or so is the reports have come out on FOMO right and there's let's say 500,000 active wallets whether or not some a lot of those are farming etc but 5% are even any profit of the 500,000 wallets and then if you look at who has inside information who is bundling things whatever who knows how small that number is so literally if you have a green PNL any kind in your FOMO wallet for an example you're the top 5% of which is kind of similar to sports gambling numbers right so it definitely is it is no easy feat to be even in the green. Great even when it feels like it. I think it was even more crazy on that on that standard was has been shared is that it's only 27 people with a PNL above 10k and at the same time there's 16,000 people who are done more than 10k.

18:21I mean Rahim made the point that obviously if you like withdraw a plus 10k balance to another wallet because you don't want to keep it on FOMO anymore that might not show there anymore in that top bracket but still it's a handful of people who are a significant amount because even in those 5% most people are anywhere between one and a hundred dollars. Yeah really really helpful to get a handle on that just going through the chat here English clarifying I don't think we go lower but I think we can revisit it low 60s looks interesting if 71 doesn't hold yeah maybe if the momentum stalls out. Yeah maybe people think that coins value now there's lack of momentum that once you've got to this level seems pretty attached to it like a magnet those just my read on it at the moment. Yeah maybe we were a visitor I just think too many people would be are hoping for that scenario and would be buying hand over fist if we were to go down there again given the previous action or the support that we found in that region so I'm open to it.

19:27Let's see if we could get there unreal saying the English is sideline I don't I wonder if he is I don't know English are you sideline at the moment that could explain a lot. I don't know how is the energy's are but you're going not sure how it is actually says just don't look at the down positions yeah if one can feel good about themselves when they're up but. As long as you don't consider the money that you've lost elsewhere there will be to say gamblers only speak of wins the faster loves gold still I mean nominating gold taking some profits and sticking in gold I've actually done that a bunch this cycle already I'm doing two things taking profits and sticking it in gold sticking it in Bitcoin sticking it in Z cash sticking it in hype just and then it just depends on where I feel like I've allocated most at the moment and then tables will come. They'll come a point in the cycle where I want to go into stables but actually my primary thing right now it would be if I if I wanted to be safe i'm completely happy we're just going into gold as well for now with us is saying yeah XAUT is his stable alright that's that for now.

20:42I'm almost to be able to answer the question but the ability to I'm almost out of all is it to take profits i'm still interested in it long term but now it has corrected more than 67 65 ish percent or so. As I said on the show yesterday like super happy to take profits aggressively more into stablecoins and don't do the DCing like take a big profit out keep a smaller moon back watch it if I'm interested in Dree by and simplify things. I know what I'm maybe this is just like some more context before we get into the main stuff today maybe this will end horribly for me i'm just i'm definitely in the camper the moment and again I don't know maybe I go through different phases this changes week to week i'm in the camper buying hold at the moment i'm definitely in the camper buying hold at the moment especially with NFTs I don't know how I've my it's interesting to note like I'm not going to be able to do it. It's interesting to note like my biggest I think my best things so far have been nft so I'm still holding four quadrons which I bought a few hundred bucks each I think they've fallen from their high they went to nine k each maybe they're five and a half now or six k each so that's a pretty good win but I'm just holding all of them.

22:00And the organ or which we bought a point one to and I added at around point one six point one seven I think and now up to point three to today. I'm holding all of them go like 24 25 of those and I think. I just think I think maybe her she I don't know if I've spoken to you about this before whether we it's been one of your strategies not trading on price trading on time. Like where are we in the market to decide when selling and you take the prices given to in that time when you notice a particular kind of mania or you notice I don't know this is this particular assets road map and we've got to this part of the road map and whatever the prices at that road map I think that's the right time to de risk or whatever do you think about that at all like do you have price targets for example for some of these things that you're that you're holding or you thinking in terms of time as well. Well I'd say that one of my biggest leaks that I'm trying to continue to work on is my price targets have always been too high.

23:04You know like even last year I'll always be like oh you know I'll sell soul when it gets just like I'll be like I'll sell 25% of soul when it gets to 750 you know and then like all except 50% of 1k right like that's kind of where I'll write all those targets and you know like Trump launches. Trump coin and souls at 300 dollars and I'm like well it's still 2x from my you know my first self-harket so got to keep holding so I need to work on that a bit but in terms of like the meme coins you know and for instance AI which is which is now like you know one of my bigger positions. When I was kind of reflecting on some of my earlier wins last cycle around like with and fart coin. Those had pretty obvious tops of with getting listed on coin base and filling the wick at $4 I didn't really pay attention to that one unfortunately and I you know I sold still up like a really big multiple but definitely not the top with even gave us 2 wicks up to $4 and still didn't get sold in. Farcoin win Melania and Trump launch you know and farcoin was a 2.6 billion that was pretty obvious top for all memes I took 25% off there like basically right at the top and that's probably the only time I ever really sold the top of something and so reflecting on that you know Robin on Robinhood artificial you knew has flipped cash cat it's not even listed on Robinhood yet.

24:27So like it hasn't even been listed yet so for me it seems silly to be telling something if it's flipped a coin and it hasn't even listed for it. Key question though this is for both of you and I think it's going to be really helpful for the people who are tuning in today. It seems like from the way that you were talking there that the listing is this big event in the past in the past the listing was the big event the listing was the thing that. Pricot enabled access to more buyers the exchange people who had never had access to that particular coin because it was on chain. Do you think this is that is the same in this cycle where there's a hell of a lot of activity on chain and you have these apps consumer facing apps mainstream apps like FOMA. Who are attracting retail directly and these people and these people can trade these meme coins directly with Apple pay.

25:30Access it straight away. And so does the listing still have the same. Significance it does it still mark the top in the way that it used to even just talking about this out loud and I don't know the answer but. It's making me think that it doesn't. What do you think. I don't think it matters that much anymore. I think it's now exciting because there's new listings on a new platform from a crypto perspective all stuff getting listed on Robinhood and the first couple of times is narrative and now there's millions of people on Robinhood waiting to buy. And artificial you know ones it is to be listed upon now is listed but that novelty factor will wear off and then in big throughout the cycle yeah sure it's going to be individual listings which which which are going to pump the token but I don't think that it can sustain that excitement for an entire cycle and it's become less and less relevant.

26:34Hershey do you think it what happens is the previous. Thing where okay fine it can't keep them momentum but I mean they would literally mark the top for these things last time. Do you think that's still the case now do you think the mark the systems evolved. I mean I think one of the X factors is that now we're talking about Rob like when Robinhood last cycle listed like pop cat and I can't remember who else it was maybe far quite I can't remember but it was almost after things that top it was kind of irrelevant I still think that the 30 million users of Robinhoods. Trad platform are not all you know there's not 30 million users on Robinhood wallet on chain right now there's not 30 million people on phone so like Robinhoods retail platform that is an X factor that I think that's why we're still in the early innings of really even understanding how maybe the backpack that could have for Robinhood chain assets. But in general I think that that yeah that it could be different.

27:39We'll just have to see it just so early like like these things got listed on Coinbase when it was like pop cat was at 1.5 billion and you know far coins the 26 billion and pet pay was at 11 billion that's when these things were getting listed like. Everything's at 400 mil right now like it's just quite it's just what early in the and Bitcoin at 77 right yeah yeah it coins on 125k like like I don't know if the bull has started yet but we are in it is the first inning where the game hasn't started like literally you know in terms of the overall cycle I don't know if it's a bad chain assets but yeah that's where that's that's kind of where I'm leaning towards as well and like this point that English is making. Saying cash got went to 30 mil before the listing then shot to 150 I think it did dip down after that went back down to 100 whatever this is my point it had the listing kind of energetic move higher it dip down then it kind of consolidated and was ready to move higher again has moved 200 consolidate around there has moved one leg higher again so for me now like I agree with everything that's been said in a few minutes.

28:50The previous cycle you see a listing of something and you're like right okay this is I'm out like that's taking it as far as it needs to go I don't know what more is left to the trade I can exit happily here who knows what the risk reward now is much lower but now I don't I don't think the listing means the risk orders bad now it just means okay it's a cool thing we've opened this up there's a lot of things that I can't do it. Time left and so if the thing that you the that you hold is good and that you like it then let's see how how the listing just kind of interact with the on chain activity and let's see if we can go higher like I just I don't think it's a cell well it might be a seldom use event in the short term but I by no means think it that means it's over is my point as you want to say something yeah yeah the last thing about that I don't want to be giving Robinhood chain and Vlad the too much credit this early but the only other thing that just alarm bell that goes off in my head is just coin base previous sexes that were listing coins they were not listening to what people were saying they were not doing it the right times they were picking the worst times the listings they're picking the worst times the tree about stuff they weren't you know when base what was having its moment they weren't listing good base coins with utility that people are interested in.

30:15Robinhood is showing that they're listing things at the right time when the momentum is there they're not waiting till waiting till the top to list stuff to get to get involved so I just think so far Robinhood is putting on a I mean they're putting on a show in terms of execution and we have like there's a chart showing the L2 revenue and how fast we can look at later that Robinhood chain has gotten to but anyway I just think Robinhood is putting on a clinic right now. Yeah okay well what we as you said we're going to double click on Robinhood more because clearly that's what we need to do. I think it's more more to do with current market cap. Yeah and also to be fair these macro conditions I've said is we're going to get into the headlines now and I know people will probably want us to focus on the coins and talk about. Which is the next coin to get to go to 100 mil or whatever which ones the next thing and our portfolios and stuff we will have we will have all those conversations but.

31:18I just I don't think it should ever be lost on people why we are here and two things the end intervention and the treasury buybacks like that is what has ignited the move higher in crypto and so. I'm a maybe I've just become more and more of a macro investor and I find that stuff interesting and I just think it's super helpful to layer in that context on top of our investing ideas we just have to have to stay on top of. The macro because that that's what caused the move like that is 100% what caused the move people didn't decide that Bitcoin was digital gold suddenly they needed to see the treasury. Act in the way they did and they needed to see. Yeah they needed to see those interventions to decide that okay maybe we need more crypto than we had before so none of this would be possible had it not been for those things and so our first headline today leaving into ledges segment is to do with what's going on with the yen because there's some pretty interesting moves there and so ledges will maybe take us through what we need to know here and what the implications are.

32:24Yeah absolutely what has happened is i'm going to bring up the chart in a second as well that the yen is now on the strongest level that it had seen in a month to 156. For US dollar it wasn't 160 which kind of raised speculations that there was let's bring the chart up here that there was another intervention by the US the first time reported about that was back before at the start of August 3rd of August was when we said hey the US has intervened they propped up the yen that back then was an extraordinary thing hasn't happened in a decade. And we also sit back on the show in August that if they do it one time is going to be an expectation that they're going to do it more than just one time is going to be an expectation that they will want to keep. The yen propped up and this is not exactly the speculation which we are seeing that after the yen had crossed 160 that they might have been an intervention again and what we can also see when it comes to the Japanese rate like set of things is let's bring it up here.

33:52That's almost a given if you look at polymarket that there's going to be a rate hike 25 bips in September it's trading at 98% chance if you then look forward into October it's only a 10% chance they're going to see back to back rate hikes and that is aligned with what B.O.J. with the Bank of Japan Portman but said. The rates are possible but it is not set in stone by any means and I think all of that is obviously important because we have said and discussed multiple times on the show that you have the yen carried trade you have that cheap money that is being borrowed against globally and as part of. What do you want to call it global strategy it has not also become fair game for him and for the US to intervene in the end price and I think the important thing here was to also remember that when they did that for the first time in a decade back the start of August and they didn't sell dollars for that they sold yours to have the money to buy in and prop that up and questions going to be.

35:14If this is going to happen again because there's now many things we're going to talk about some of them towards the end of the show as part of the last headline that are all putting additional pressure and anxiety and what already is an extremely high level in the both 10 and 30 year US treasure yields and that is now another thing that adds pressure to that and where we have seen the end bounce back on that speculated intervention and. Interesting amazing summary I think this is is it right to think then ledge that the thinking here is that it's just we're on a path towards further intervention and that continues the devaluation of the dollar. Probably, yeah. Let's also bring up the Dixie. I think we haven't looked at the Dixie in a long time. Either just give me one second to get that chart up as well.

36:18There we go. Just to remind the Dixies, the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. You can see a big move on the one day. Dixies down almost half a percent down for you Bips, which is a very significant move for that index. It's not an index that is moving a lot. Let's just say it on the month. Yeah. On the month you can see that we had hit almost 100 at some point, but we are now down to 99.1. And even if you look at that on the one year, that is a significant move down, which we've seen, which we've seen. It isn't a significant move down, but I guess one of my thoughts here is that it's not. Okay. What's this timeframe? That's five days. Yeah. That's hope days. So you can see that. Five days. But yesterday, maybe six months, just show six months. Yeah. Like on a medium timeframe, it's not that. No, but for one day move it's a lot.

37:19Yeah. Almost half a percent is a lot. Yeah. Okay. I'm just trying to see that see a bigger, bigger trend here. It's not like the dollars getting smashed across the board. I think one of the things to note, for example, is that like UK guilt, for example, we just ripped through another number as well. Like very enough, the dollar and the US have these debt issues. But I think part of the problem, or maybe it's part of the problem, part of the not the solution, but one aspect that's not that bad is that it's a relative problem as well, right? Like, okay, fine. The US has about a lot of debt. Is the UK situation any better? Is the French situation any better? Not really. Like everyone is really, really screwed here at the moment, because this, you know, fine. Alright, people don't want US treasuries. What do they want UK treasuries? No. So this is one of the issues, I think, which I guess will, like,

38:19just be, will be working through. And which is why I think when everyone's always talking about the dollar getting devalued, you would think when you look at the Dixie, maybe it's going to be further down, right? But it's, it's not on a kind of longer timeframe. Everyone has significant issues. So, okay, that's that. That's super helpful. I'm going to talk a little bit about bonds a little bit after. See what's going on there. Hashi, should we go to back to Robin Hood and touch in on what, some of the data points coming out. I think you've got some charts you wanted to show us why this is particularly exciting. Any ideas that you have coming off of this data? Yeah. So, I mean, right here, this is showing the L2 gross profit for the last four years. So this is coming off of pawns being listed, then hitting all time highs in revenue

39:20and daily volume, basically, you know, every week for the last couple of months. And so Robin Hood is the yellow, if I don't know if you can zoom in at all, but Robin Hood is the yellow at the far end of that bar. And so you see that like they have just taken off and not looked back. And it's just clear that a new player has involved and has has arrived. And as I said before, they're just doing things not differently, but they're just moving at a speed and with kind of a touch on on community polls that I don't think we've seen before. So we'll see how it continues to evolve. But you look at Robin Hood's stock as well being up at least it was up pre-market before. And it's clear that this is going to be a really massive part of their business enterprise moving forward. And so they're going to be prioritizing this. And so we're still only what I think two months into them having launch.

40:21And so it's in my opinion, still the place to be continuing to put focus. And I feel like tons of smart people that we all follow are echoing that. And I know that when you look at the on-chain UPNL, a lot of these people holding these tokens, it is monstrous and the liquidity is not that high. So I do think that caution is needed from here on out, but optimistic caution. And I can get into how I've played similar trades and how you have the stomach volatility, especially in these extremely speculative bets. But but yeah, Robin Hood chain is really showing that it's here to stay. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, really interesting data points coming out here. As you said, the the amount that they're making per day. I saw an interesting point being made yesterday. We talked about hood as a stock for quite some time before we took the couple of week break.

41:23I think hoods moved up to maybe one 10 now, but it went up as high as 120 ish at the back end of last year. Anything in the 100 region, you're going to be doing pretty well like this. This data is going to come through. I think they're making something insane per day, right? Letters just print money because they just have to pay such a small amount across to the people. So provide it like I don't know where the fees go. It's built up for arbitration rights. So maybe arbitra will take a little bit, maybe a little bit goes back to eith or something minuscule. And then you keep all of the margin for yourself. And so this won't show up in kind of company data for some time bearing mind is the humongous company. So it's not going to be, you know, I don't think it's going to move the needle in a humongous way for them. So if it continues like this, it would be pretty damn meaningful to be able to print this much money on in an area where the margins are so good.

42:24I certainly think this is going to impact. Sorry for cutting off is going to impact the stock price positively because we've seen it with the last quarterly earnings where hood reported down. The crypto business did slow down and was slower as slower as expected. And despite not being the biggest part of the business, the stock price reacted quite sensitive to that because they were expecting crypto growth. So if that is back on the table for the next quarterly earnings, I do think that this is going to help hood as a stock a lot. Yeah, I'm very open to that. I think hood always does well when crypto does well, but they've got enough other things going on to mean that, OK, if crypto does does worse than you need it. Hashtag, do you think about much on the stock side? Because the thing for me is like, I wonder, should I just own hype or should I own hood? Do I need to own both? Is it in essence the same bet? Like you're kind of betting that trading continues more people trade in the future?

43:24Both are great products, both are great teams. Do I need to hold both? I've never felt like I've dabbled in what I mean, I used to have a huge high position. And now, I guess the question I'm thinking of when it comes to allocating, I'm currently allocated to hype in a medium sized way. And I was with her and I kind of messed around with a position a little bit over traded it a little bit and I didn't feel like I needed to hold it. Do I need to hold hood and hype? Should I just do one? Like how do you think about that? I think it's a great question and something that I'm currently thinking through myself just as someone who's so crypto native and was effectively only allocated to the crypto markets for most of my investing career and now trying to sharpen both tools and one point I actually wanted to bring up earlier that stood out to me around the fear of read index on stocks being quite a low level at 33.

44:24I'm personally quite sideline on stocks much more allocated crypto and has felt like I didn't want to buy into these, you know, these tops to these very high allocated highly allocated sectors already. But I don't feel great about being mostly in cash in my stock portfolio and seeing a few agreed index at the lowest levels in two months and everyone worried about rate heights that might not happen because maybe they're not able to do that even if they want to. So so I'm interested in you know where you guys are thinking about allocating stock market wise and crypto the kind of upside and the momentum is a little more clear. And so my inclination is always then to go look at stocks and think oh well I understand how to value Robinhood I understand how to value circle and then just continue to concentrate my portfolio more and more into one sector and right. And that's the question right yeah because it's like well what's the point in I get in some ways diversifying out of you then just go make the same bets like betting more people are trading.

45:24Just some additional context from oxy they've hired some this is on Robinhood they've hired some excellent folks for their digital assets team. I think that's making a huge difference this is their 14th 100 million dollar revenue line. And remember we've spoken a lot about the Trump accounts. I think Dell did like an adrop to the Trump accounts yesterday is like a couple hundred bucks is pretty cool remember all of that is being brought to the American public via Robinhood that is pretty awesome pretty awesome to be custodying and sorting out. To have the responsibility to deliver all of these stocks to the people for the next what decade forever like it's built on top of Robinhood that's pretty unbelievable moat they're not going to be changing the Trump accounts between companies every now and again right so more I talk about that out loud maybe it's a similar bit but as you said that there's other lines to their business even the Trump accounts alone the fact that that's going to be a lot of money. The fact that that's only just started is that fully priced in people fully realize the significance of everyone needing to sign up for a Robinhood account and having all of this money custody with them over all of this time the decades.

46:38I don't know. Well, you've just gone. Yeah, well short term the thing that I'm thinking about that couldn't almost couldn't be priced in is and maybe I'm underestimating the ability of just trad fi analysts there's no way people understand how hot Robin and chain has gone in the last like three weeks outside of people who are literally buying stuff and seeing it going. You know instantly up so so in my mind even in the short term for their revenue reporting etc like do trad fi analysts really understand like how much revenues being generated how much activities happen not happening on chain that that to me feels like the most obvious under price thing that there were just so much more aware of. Sounds like we're talking ourselves into some hurt here letter you holding hood at the moment. No, no. How are you getting persuaded at all? I like I like hooded up 23% of the month we just had a chart up but I also like exactly to follow that thinking that I don't want to double down the same exposure which I have in the street and just replicated stocks that rather have my stocks more on the apple side on the robotics side other other things that are going to be.

47:51Yeah, it's fair this is a thing where you've got to make a decision like do you want your whole thing to be correlated and keep taking the bet or I mean maybe what you would do is if you are so bullish on her do you take some of your crypto. Capture and then go stick it in Robinhood instead right that would be the way to do it like and then you keep your stock capital for your the S&P which you have been doing successfully for a period of time. Here is he saying yes, I think this is to do with is it being priced in it is priced in everything is priced in everything that you have ever imagined for the stock someone else is imagined already and therefore it is priced in is the is the general take I think. Okay, that's that let's just hit the final headline today before maybe some final reflections. And obviously saying I think Robinhood is just a different beast stock wise it is I think but. Of course, it's hard to hard to find the capital to allocate to I'm kind of in a similar boat to Lerge if I'm going to do stocks I don't really want to triple down on crypto exposure in that respect but look let's let's get to the final final headline today one is just talk a little bit about Trump.

49:07Considering declaring the Iran war over as bonds rally what you can see in this image being shared by Felix from block works is that the US government 10 year bonds have pushed beyond I think it was 4.8% and you can see this chart going back to the back end of 2025 when they were as low as 3.9. I had thought I think this is the 10 year well this is the 10 year but I thought that 4.2 seemed to be a number that was religiously defended before and it when it got to that region around 4.2 4.3 there seemed to be some kind of chatter that would always come through to try to force it down. Obviously they've lost control of that level and it looks like now there's a new level emerging around 4.7 4.8 that could be becoming the new normal obviously if the war concludes then the expectation would be inflation could fall or price could come down inflation could fall.

50:19Which would mean that maybe the debt I mean the debts never going to get under control I think people have completely lost control of that but at least the narrative would be some of these pressures would ease up which would mean maybe bonds can come down there would be no need for rate hikes if this stuff can cool off a little bit. So that's what people are considering at the moment and so this is what is specifically been reported by the Wall Street Journal yesterday the jump is privately discussed with senior aides whether to declare the war the run over with US official sank he favors it while hexeth quietly extends Middle East to deployments in a sign the conflict could run until 2027. The same report produced two opposing headlines within two hours though so that's something to note one reading the was over one reading the work stands and the 10 year closed at 4.77% on the breakout regardless so.

51:25So clearly this is really important and influential for everyone at the moment this is why best and has been doing the treasury buybacks they're trying to contain the long end in particular the 30 year breaking out. But it looks like and they they try to indicate that they'll do whatever it takes right first I think they said to bill they want to throw into it then it was for bill I don't even know if these numbers are right because they keep increasing it then they then they kind of indicated well we will bid as much as we need because the first two statements didn't make any impact on the market because it's just not enough. And in the meantime you know oil still went another 3% higher today so with no real conclusion in sight it doesn't look like this jaw boning from Trump is working maybe it did previously is not working at the moment I think they're going to need to come out with a full on.

52:2717th piece deal in order for it to have any impact but then I even when that happens I'm not certain that it can maintain because there is no deal there clearly is no deal at the moment and no one's incentivized to let Trump off the hook here just before midterms so maybe maybe they can come out with a more. Some type of deal that is not really a deal and that could call the market a little bit and get it under control but it's just you know if you want to find out the truth don't look at what Trump's tweeting anymore just look at the bomb market the bomb market is telling you everything that you need to know I think. I think as that dobito says in the comments deciding whether or not to call the war over the war he said is over a thousand times already yep that's a situation wherein right in the market just wouldn't I don't know if it really maybe the stock market kind of the algorithms trading that react immediately but I don't think the bomb market is suggesting that that's what they think is going to happen so let's see let's see that's where we are with that curious for your guys.

53:38Before we start on the results as we come to the conclusion of the shirt today let's first then Hashi midterms getting close up pressure is on we have the end we have the war. We have now a high probability of seeing a rate hike happening and just think that Trump is trying anything to make some of these news go away and have something to come down on the market is and now as we are we are what have been doing the show today he started post it last weekend from the start doing the show today, he started posting just 40 minutes ago, that Syria is pitching itself as an alternative to the straight up for Moosecoding or Washington Post article and saying that this is great news. This is a great thing. I can't pitch to be as there like what does that even mean? Like we are a country with land. Why don't we be the straight up for Moose? Like what does that even mean? Say it again, what did he tweet? They're pitching themselves. He's pitching itself as an alternative to the straight up for Moose. This is great.

54:39That doesn't mean anything. No, it doesn't. But it's, you know, one marker is very a little bit. Straight up for Moosecoding. Straight up for Moosecoding is a straight, it's water. Syria is not water and it's not located where the straight up for Moosecoding. It's great news and you don't see it. I just think, remember that moment, Hershey, like, was it a year ago or something? I don't know how long ago it was now. When that really, obviously, I don't know if she's corrupt or not or whatever, but that person's, it was when the Epsin stuff was going on and things get so farcical and ridiculous and it was when the stock market was at a certain level and they were trying to interrogate her about something. And the way that she just responded was just like, why do you even care about any of this stuff, like the stock markets above this price? And it was like a great top signal at a time because it's like, this is so egregious behavior from a, and I don't know, that person's elected official or an unelected official, but it's just such egregious behavior that it's like, you have to short

55:45this kind of behavior. Like, it's just disgusting to when being asked about like a serious set of events, which is to be like, well, the stock market said this price, like, who cares? It feels like things are so farcical again now where I don't know, something, something needs to break or something needs to happen or the markets need to resolve in a particular direction because things are so ridiculous. One thing I would just know is September the 15th and 16th is the next FOMC meeting, so that's the first meeting back with Walsh after the Jackson Hole event last, maybe a week or so ago. So we're looking ahead of that. Is he going to hike or is he going to keep the same? Or is he going to cut dance again? Hershey, what do you think about this concoction of events? Yeah, I think I saw something interesting. So it's priced at a coin flip right now on Pauli Market for a hike in September and then it's a bit higher for October. It's like in the 60s.

56:47And then there was a poll that was going around that got about 6,000 responses on Fin Twitter that some of the crypto guys were discussing about where I think 65 plus percent thought that there'd be no hike, even though it's 50-50 right now in Pauli Market Odds. You see the sentiment within just general investors being a little or Twitter investors being a bit more convinced, oh there's no way that the heights happen even though it's actually much closer to a coin flip. And so I do think that everyone should be wary. I think it's a time to be wary in terms of your overall portfolio composition but then also be brave in terms of the bets you're taking on chain in these new pools of capital because you definitely don't want to ever be caught without some cash when bond rates are above 4.8 percent and assets are at near all time high but also I think

57:48we've seen over the course of in the last 15 years you can just sit around waiting for something to break while everything goes to X higher and things usually break and then resolve higher. So and often you're not at your seat ready to click bye-bye-bye the moment it happens so I don't know it's hard for me to really like there's so much noise and so much constant signaling going both ways where how do you really do anything but just keep buying assets you think are undervalued in whatever niche you have edge and keep some cash around in case everything breaks or gold or whatever you know that that just seems to be the only way to navigate this in my mind. Yeah I think yeah I definitely lean towards just being allocated now as well and maybe not with everything but you definitely yeah I think that's the right way to to think about it I'm thinking about it kind of similarly to be honest. Any final thoughts as we wrap up?

58:51Nothing nothing to out here. Okay right good show good show guys good show oxy concluding the United States is such an incredible place. United States is amazing I was just in LA last week really really cool cool place great vibe but gosh I think some some work needs to be done with on the in the administrative and legislative arms at the moment. I'm looking forward to see who wins the midterms and then what arguments happen around the debt next year right because in the end it doesn't really matter who has won or lost in the past so this could be it you know people Republicans and Democrats like to go back and forth about the stuff in the end it's not really ever mattered which is unfortunate because it means that the average person doesn't really have an option to vote for responsibility but also I don't think the average person you know

59:55when they tried to deal with it there was a reasonable minority that was kind of revolting against it because it means pain choosing austerity which people hate as well so right good stuff let's let's let's wrap it up here for the day we'll be back same time same place tomorrow looking forward to that have a great day we'll see you back on the other side see you later bye bye