Trump’s $5K Dividend?

0:00Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Modern Market where we discuss all things to do with the market. That is the crypto market, the equity market, the metals market and any other market where we can make some or a lot of money. We hope for today's show I am joined by legendary and Hershey in the co-host seat with me. We're ready to get into it, just a reminder of friends before we do. Nothing that we say on this show is financial advice. The market is very, very risky. We don't know anything for sure. So please, proceed the caution and exercise your own judgment. Join also with us at the top of the show. Got GGWP in the chat. You hit the port, Corona, DaBleto, Rocky, Rocky. In early, absolutely, I'd love to see you've got a lot to talk about today. Let's get into a market. Headlines for your Thursday, the 10th of September. Today, we're going to get into Trump. Promising 5K stimulus checks if Republicans win the midterms,

1:02not at all sure what's going on here, not at all sure what is going on in the United States of America as they approach midterms. We'll talk about what the core details are there and some commentary around it. I think these are going to get really wild going into midterms. You have to layer midterms over your market analysis. I think there's going to be crazy stuff that happens in Q4. This is a preposterous thing. We'll talk about it, but I just think we're going to have to get used to things getting more preposterous, to be honest. We'll also talk PPI data, dropping today while rate hike fears, Lune. We've got PPI today, CPI tomorrow, realistically, he's a bit too big, important numbers that are going to come. We'll just touch on them because they're so important ahead of Worsh's FOMC meeting next week. We've got to keep an eye on inflation.

2:02Then finally, legendary gets his segment on Apple, iPhone, Duo. One of legendary's largest single stock holdings will learn if he's bullish or bearish on the new iPhone. In other headlines, we have the news that President Trump says the US is not looking for a deal with Iran at the moment. Oil prices are continuing to rise, crude oil and track for its eighth straight green day. It's the longest winning streak in three years. SK Heinex, the memory trades actually back. SK Heinex soars to a new all-time hype, interesting to know. Not people's attention's gone elsewhere. So it's quite good to see. Uniswap holder revenue hits $5 million a week up from 500,000 a week just nine months ago. So seeing real big Uniswap revenue growth. US bank launches USBDC, stablecoin on Stellar. Chesa says third party security breached led to fishing emails from their legitimate domain. This is truly outrageous for the self-custody party of those in crypto who

3:11believe in self-custody, who believe in holding your own assets. It just makes it very, very difficult when these key tools that you use to do that continuously let you down in some capacity. So that is not good. We hope people have not been too bad be affected. Hunter Biden's laptop token crashed 99% on the launch day. What a surprise. Good to see that go down very fast. I don't know if you guys saw. If you were a newsletter subscriber to Hunter Biden's newsletter, you've got a token allocation and people were selling, was it 40k or 400k? I think about over 40,000 dollars per subscriber. That's how much tokens they received. Pretty outrageous to be honest. Then Stonk has flipped Ponds in 24 hour revenue, getting to the price action just to give you what is going on there. We have starting with the top with Bitcoin as always. We have, let me just get it up properly. Got Bitcoin

4:16down a percent to 77. Still very much in range, although I'm noticing people getting increasingly nervous. ETH is down a percent to 2460. Still looking fine to me. HIGHPED down a few percent to 82, as well. ZCASH down just a percent strongest of the majors in my opinion at the moment. 1,224 ZCASH. Oil is up as we said. WTI is up to 95 now and Brent is up a percent to 99. Pumps down 10 percent. Gosh. Back down to 3.9 Bill. I'm glad I got out of my over lengthy, lengthy long. We spoke about it in depth yesterday. I feel really good about that now to get out of it, break even after doubling down on it. It'll be forced to double down on it at around 3.8 or 3.7 when it crashed down there the other day. Soul is down 2 percent to 100. SK HIGHNICS as we said at 190. Space X down 3 percent to 146. Pons

5:17down 28 percent. Wow. That's crashed even more. Right now, ledger, I don't know if you want to bring Pons up just for a second. Okay. That's going down. So that's even, okay. So all morning, that's gone down pretty aggressively. So down 28 percent in the last 24 hours. Pons being the biggest revenue generating launch pad on Robinhood. I doubt that's going to be good for everyone's Robinhood bags. So that's unfortunate if the leader gets hit like that. Soul is down to 65. Gold is down half percent to 4.380. I really want to get some more gold with 4,000. In the 4,300s, I'm happy. I think I'm going to start to accumulate more in my opinion. VVVV is down 10 percent to 23. Obviously, I had a 40 percent move up yesterday. So it's fine to cool down a little bit. Near is down 4 percent to $2.40. Light is down 12 percent to 450. Micro

6:18back above 1,000 up a percent and half. So the memory trades back. Everything in crypto is red. Not ideal way to start the day if you have completely gone back into crypto. But look, let's stop there. Take stock and then we'll get into the headlines and general discussion as well. Ledge coming to you first. How are things and catching your attention? Crypto seems to be red. Memory trade seems to be back. What's your thought? Bleakly. Honestly, I'm really have missed the SK high x went to another all-time high despite the fact that I am holding SK high x. So once again, I am in this position. Maybe that's more in general thought than on SK high x specifically where now that I got back into the trenches and into the meme coin trading all of those fun things, I realized how hard it is to keep your attention span across especially different asset classes. And literally hold significantly more money in SK

7:18high x than I'm trading meme coins with. And I don't know that this is all time high because trading memes is so time and mine is so time consuming. And this is weird and that's reinforcing what I said with taking profits that I'm going to simplify and try to remove as much of the mental load that I can. Like x staying to stable is taking profits aggressively. Don't think too much about other things because it is absolutely it is obscene. I have to say that it is obscene that I'm up so much on SK high x in absolute numbers compared to the meme coin trading size and position. And I did not know that. That should not be the case. I completely completely agree. This is one of the things I was sharing on the telegram earlier today. People were just chatting earlier in the day. I was just like, I don't know what the risk reward is here guys. I think when you're in crypto you're always going to dabble at the bottom end of the curve. It's fun. It's exciting. You catch some stuff. I think you

8:19have to have a certain amount that you're going to want to play in that arena. But the risk reward when there's no moat for these things. This is the thing. There's no moat. Pump just launched their stock meme stock pad tokens as well. So you can launch those through them now. It doesn't appear to me to be any moat for anything in the meme universe at the moment. And so as you said, you have to be so locked in and give so much tension. And then if I reflect over the last few weeks, I'm up huge on ZCash. Not huge on anything else. Up huge on ZCash. And in addition, and this is kind of interesting and maybe we'll get some of the old NFT guys excited. Up big on ZCash. And up big on Argonauts. And up big on Quotrons. Because there's a moat there. Quotrons are the NFTs of Inc slash Kraken and they're doing stuff in that arena equals a moat.

9:24Argonauts is the best one of one of the best artists in this space that one of the ones that is enjoyed the most. And so there's a moat there. Everything else has no moat and you have to switch from one thing to another thing in order to stay alive. And I think people are getting chopped up and it's hurting people. Hershey, what do you think about this? So that was the idea I was sharing. It was like, look, I don't know if any of this stuff's got a moat. And I don't know the risk of water. If all the gains are happening in other stuff, I'm not winning so big in this stuff. I'm winning and then I'm giving it back and then I'm winning and then I'm giving it back. This other stuff I'm winning and keeping it. So what's the point? Yeah, I think that is totally valid. I think the point is that in this frenzy of everyone staring one way while another thing moves the other way. Like you can really zig while the people's ag and that's that's where the opportunity comes and everyone just being so caught up in what's right in front of their face. That there's always asymmetric opportunity. So for

10:27instance, like Rahim catching in our chat, catching stonk at 15 or 20 mil and now it's a 200. Well, I could hold my hand up and be like, I was just obsessing over the pawns chart and thinking about how did I not buy this at 30 mil and now it's at 900 mil when the Salona competitor was just sitting with no volume at between 11 and 20 mil for like six or seven days. And that you could have been pretty comfy just like buying into being like, you know, if it goes down it goes down. But I know that like if attention comes over here, there's real asymmetric, you know, 10x opportunity. So that's the reason to play in these spaces and I think the issue is that some of us probably feel like we're not actually doing that and we're just kind of aping into the stuff that's already up at 200 mil and then like it goes down 30% and you're wondering, do I really want to hold this for a billion? Is that really coming and that's where you start to realize the RR is not really there. And I think that's what you're alluding to. And I think you know to Legendary's point, I think

11:29people know that something is going wrong when you don't know what's going on in your pocket. Like there's too many things happening that you actually don't know. Like am I up today? Am I down today? I don't know. Like that's not a strategy anymore. That's like being completely over exposed or over allocated too many things. I wouldn't necessarily say I'm in the camp. You know, there are some traders that go very extreme is like, why would I allocate? Why would I allocate to anything that is not my best idea? Right? This is I think Jess's idea of like, look, I'm just going to basically full-port everything and it's going to go into the best thing that I believe in. Why would I allocate to my second best idea? Or my third best idea? I'm not in that camp. I don't think I don't know that I would still be here if I definitely did that. Maybe I would, I'm not sure. Maybe it'd be better. Maybe I should do some analysis. Like if you

12:30had done that in each cycle, maybe I should do that. Actually, now that I'm talking about it, I'll add. I think the argument works within specific asset classes. It's more about you want to diversify between AI stocks and crypto, but I think in crypto specifically, maybe it does make sense. Right? If you think Z cash is the play, if you think it's hype is the play, you don't need to diversify out of it within that because everything kind of is a little bit more correlated. So I think diversifying across sectors but maybe not within a specific market, that could be the thing to reflect on, maybe. Yeah, maybe. Interesting. All right. Well, we're going to think about that. Leeds, did you want to close out on any reflections on the portfolio at the moment? I know you've been trading a little bit more on the meme side. Any further reflections as you kind of looked at SK Hynix today and the stocks versus crypto? I think that this barbell that I mentioned before,

13:33ultra-risk on on the crypto side, be more conservative on the stock side, and then maybe even be as conservative as consolidating this, the Hynix and other positions that I have into just buying more of the index more of the old country world. Because it takes so much attention also on the stock side to find these good trades and ultimately I think that it is almost impossible to outperform the index performance over like a multi-deck period. So then go back to the roots and now that there is a market to be having, there is money to be made in the trenches to that instead. And I think even on the further reflection, I'm feeling quite reflective today. We talked about when it comes to the show, right? We said last cycles, we just did the same bull in bear, worked through the show. Now we're like, okay, maybe slow a bit down in the bear market, keep the energy for the bull then or for whatever seasonality don't even need to be a bull market. But I think that also allows you to keep your energy fresh because this time I noticed it took me way longer to get back into the mindset of what I'm actually really good at. I'd like being excited about the trend and

14:35thinking, oh, people are playing more with stocks on chain, with stocks, with quadrons, with all of these things and not be the mid-curving boomer who says, why the hell do I need this? Can't I just buy the Apple stock? Can I just buy in video instead? And maybe that is because you have this full on attention through the bulls, through the bear market and you need to take a step back from that to be able to come back at it with a fresh mind. One thing I like that you said is about this just consolidating. Like even amongst the good stuff that you have, if you have big gains quickly, unless it's like a winner that you believe in for the rest of the cycle, I definitely think I'm a big believer in just like taking it off, consolidating into something which is a more secure, more sound. I think it was flood who shared the other day. It was like the only reason I'd never really thought about this before but I maybe noticed that a lot of people were kind of trading very low-cap things. The only reason to trade the low-cap stuff is to have enough capital to then

15:43start allocating to the big stuff. Whereas I think what people do is they are trading the low-caps to make it. Like they're trying to hold the low-cap from 200k to maybe this will be the one that goes to a billion. Maybe this will be the one that goes 500 million and your chances are are just bad. What you want to do if you're going to be in the bottom in that early-early stage coin formation, capital formation and figuring out how valuable the token is is you want to keep making your fast multiples, book it into e, book it into bitcoin, book it into gold, book it into dollars, book it into something solid so that or book it into hype because you're a long-term believer in hype and you think hype is going to 3x. As I said for me I'm turning profits at the early stage of the cycle and might be into Zcash. If Ponds go so I've gotten really late to Ponds for example and I went to X. When Ponds is that 700-800 million I don't know how much

16:46how it's going to go. I don't need it so I just booked it into eith and now I'm going to see where I want to put it whether I buy more Zcash, whether I buy some gold and that's how you accumulate because now I've gone into the risky thing. I use the risky thing to up the capital amount and now I'm out of the risky thing as well so I don't have to worry about it all the time. So anyway that's some thinking there. Checking in with the chat morning to Urban Shepherd. Haven't seen that name. I don't think before. Welcome to the show. Morning to Funke. Haven't seen that name before either. Just joking. See you on the time, Funke. Good to see you. Morning to YG Drops. Been a while. Good to see you. Diableto says whatever happened to that $2,000 stimulus check everyone was getting before. Yeah I don't know. We'll get into the $5,000 check now. There's obviously a bit of inflation with the stimulus checks that people are supposed to be receiving. Morning to local Mocha. Morning to Oxy. Also, Edgott, we know liquidity so they couldn't sell so Americans have

17:53to pay ordinary income taxes. I think this is in relation to the Hunter Biden coin. That's no good. Morning to Zama. Hoping for a good PPI. I think we're going to have to have a good PPI. Otherwise they're going to have to hike rakes and they don't want to do that. Morning to Unicorn. Dev. Morning to. Okay, it's NDB. I get it. Morning to Nickel. Good to see. Good to see. All right. Look, so we've got a bunch of good stuff to talk about today. We're going to get into the, I think which news are we going to get into first here? We're going to get into Trump promising five-minute research. Yes. So Hershey, this is you. You're going to tell us about the inflation and how the 2K, once upon a time, doing this checks and now become 5K. What do we need to know here? What's your kind of takeaways from this kind of statement from the president of the United States? As an American, is there any view that you have that's for us to like layer on

18:58and look at the midterms in November that we should be taking into account? What do you need to know? You're making a personal call me out as an American. I like it. As an American living abroad. Yes. So this was at the first midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday, Republican Party convention. And Trump said that every adult American citizen would receive a $5,000 Trump dividend if Republicans held both the House and the Senate with the sole condition that the money would be spent domestically. So keeping those dollars buying American goods. And then I think very quickly Vance followed up saying, well, you know, wealthy Americans should be excluded and tariff revenue is how will fund this. But when you look at the reality of it being 1.2 trillion plus dollars in spending, I don't think the tariff revenue really is going to line up with that. So a lot of the takes are right along the side of mine where this is clearly just, you know, blatant bribery or an attempt to that I doubt anyone's really going to fall for with dollar printing already all time highs adding

20:04another 1.27 trillion while on polymarket the odds of a rate hike are 54%. Just doesn't make any sense. And we had some good commentary from Peter Schiff, which is the next tweet we have where he's just basically saying, you know, this is blatant. And he couldn't believe that Besson who was on stage also was sitting there, you know, applauding and essentially looking like he was backing this. So yeah, I don't think that this even has any realm of possibility of going through, but I think you're right that coming in the midterms, it's going to get a bit a bit crazy in terms of what's said. I just think I think a lot has been a lot has been normalized now with the kind of standard of, did you say behavior of the standard of

21:05the standard of communication between it both like domestically, internationally. I definitely think things are becoming more and more ludicrous from the United States aside. And increasingly aggressive to former allies, increasingly aggressive internally as well, just to each other. I think that's something that people have noted for a long time as well, right? Like the divide between the Democrats and the Republicans seems to be getting harsher. And so yeah, I really think we're going to see some nonsensical stuff as we move through. I just wonder whether anyone will know that it's nonsense anymore because there's so much nonsense all the time.

22:08We're just seeing Oxey saying in the commentary, my aunt who shared AI Slup fake news will absolutely believe this and vote conservative because she thinks she's going to get five grand. Why do you drop saying crime is legal now? Debito says it would be bribery if he wasn't lying about it. There will be no stimulus. Yeah, I just don't get it. I mean, is there any perspective from the state? I mean, I know you're not in the States now, but I mean, I talk with family members all the time. People are just like I was talking my grandma who lives in Washington DC yesterday and she just couldn't believe she's talking about all this stuff. Like Trump wants to tear the Kennedy Center down. He wants to rename this in that. I think the sentiment is just that everything that was the institution of the US, everything that was named the way it was, is being uprooted. I think there's an exhaustion of just the consistent,

23:11you know, onslaught of these headlines of Kennedy Center reading by Trump, you know, this new lake is now the Trump lake. Oh, by the way, a trillion dollars is getting handed out. It's kind of hard to tell. Well, it's just another thing that's showing the fall of democracy in the US. So that's kind of the general vibe as people are just they don't know what to do and they're just tired of hearing ridiculous headlines every day. Yeah, it's it's it's worrying to be honest. I do think it just seems to be in line with the kind of general shift away from the US, which made the US kind of instigating a little bit themselves, having so so so aggressive towards former allies as well. Like you have the kind of the thing going on now as well. We're now America's got tariffs against Canada and cancassia is responded with tariffs against the states as well. And it's just it's a lot to it's a lot to handle, I think.

24:23And with the Iran thing still going on and all prices this high, it just it's not a I just think it's going to get more crazy as the year goes on. That's my main view. Let's what what do you think coming into this? I agree it's going to get more crazy and what I also did in the meantime is to see what happened to the $2,000 Stimmy the Terry Free fund check as was mentioned in the YouTube comments as well. And there where's the 2K check we basically have the status that there is no there is no update on it. And there's no federal Terry Free fund check that has been approved. There's no payment date. The IRS has not scheduled any new nationwide stimulus payments as well. But if you look at the at the Google searches for that and to Google search analytics, people are still searching for

25:26quite a lot like my two case to me coming. Went away to case to me coming in as you said the situation is hitting now there's a five case to me. It feels quite weird and especially as a lot of that is blending in with with with the I with fake news with all of that happening. I think it's going to be common that's again one more general thought more and more hard with like ordinary people distinguish what is real and what's not. And I saw in yesterday's in Apple's keynote yesterday that they will now have a feature on their iPhone to basically that you know if a photo that you have with it you get is the I generated on that which is super helpful because it becomes just so prevalent. And what I have started to see more and more if you look at the Google search you Google you get a gem in overview of what Gemini is thinking and hallucinating on that quite a lot as well. And then you see people discussing stuff on X and just screech

26:27screenshotting a gem in the overview on a topic and presenting that as if it were a matter of fact. So I feel like that a lot of these companies that have devices out there that you use daily like Apple, like Samsung, like whatever like your MacBook or laptop will have to have in build systems to help distinguish are you looking at AI content or not. And in that vein typically like to criticize the European Union for being like so over bearing with regulatory stuff that I think that this AI directive that they have where now you have to disclose if stuff is AI generated, if you have a video of people who look real like the Higgs field type of video and post that as an ad as a content creator whatever that you have to disclose this is I generate especially like advertising as a business. So I do think that this is helpful to a certain extent. Yeah. Did you see, I said just yesterday or the day before, actually I don't know if you saw this

27:31maybe led you can pull it up. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund decided to sell a ton of U.S. Treasuries. Can you see if you can pull that up? Let's just want to make sure people know about sovereign one thing that people tend to know about the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is that it is one of the most successful sovereign wealth funds. Admittedly it is a smaller country, Norway is a pretty small country so it doesn't, no it doesn't maybe have some of the challenges that bigger places have and I believe if my data is correct that they manage to pay for 110% or so they basically their whole social security program in Norway is paid for by its sovereign wealth fund which I think is actually one of the justifications for why the United States will

28:32have a sovereign wealth fund coming is my understanding. I think they've kind of touched on that as a concept anyway and why they'll just this be why actually the markets more broadly will just continue to rip over time and pick it well the market's rip anyway but you might as well have a sovereign wealth fund that's participating in the thing rather than being in debt all the time. You might as well just go right with the market. Sorry Leic, can you say what is the story? Exactly so it isn't true trillion the fund is true trillion now and they are holding within the benchmark bond index 70% in US treasuries and now they are suggesting to cut the down to 50% and that would mean cutting nearly $8 billion worth of US treasuries they are holding until the 2015 billions worth of US treasuries as per end of June data so they would if that proposal goes through sell 80 bill worth of US treasuries. Well I also remember there was this

29:37article like about a month ago where the CEO of the wealth fund came out saying that in the market collapse the wealth fund might take really bad losses and might even disappear altogether. I don't know if you ever recover that. It's like we are with statement where he said oh like in a big market turned down this whole wealth fund could completely collapse. I don't really know and now they're selling these US treasuries kind of interesting after that statement if they're like taking profit I guess out of the US. I don't know I just think a lot of people will want to I mean a lot of places have been diversifying out. I mean we've spoken about a variety of the reasons why people are diversifying away from the US but I think at least one of the main kickoffs for all of this was the asset seizures when it came to Russia. Maybe this was around COVID or just before just after the UK actually back then in particular was super aggressive against Russian

30:37actors and they were seizing kind of UK assets and bank freezing bank accounts and isn't that. You're not going to be able to do that anymore and you would be crazy if you know it kind of makes complete sense that people would want to diversify away now over time because why should you have this stuff frozen to be honest whether you're up to good stuff or bad stuff you don't want to be left you don't want to be left to the under the judgment of a foreign a foreign court if you are if you want to be sovereign in any way so you know Russia I guess a diverse way China diversifying away if America keeps attacking all of their allies the allies will diversify away so this is the reality of the situation and I think actually the more the

31:41more concerning thing for the world as we knew it which I think people were generally happy with people accepted America as the de facto global power Europe as it's very very strong ally maybe Britain with an even closer place there is that I think this type of economic warfare via tariffs with allies non allies alike it's just pushing everyone into the arms of China that's my observation and the way that I've observed that personally is with the cars like Europe is getting flooded with Chinese cars right now and there would have been one point in time and I think there was a point in time for example in the UK where we said no we can't have Huawei tech doing our broadband because we don't trust it we don't want like Chinese technology to be that close to us and for that important tech but we just want to keep them in an arms like cars are pretty important too

32:46maybe maybe not the same as broadband but I think the fact that they're being it's being welcomed in so much nor can compete with them they're clearly happy to have them I think that everyone's kind of getting pushed into the direction of China and he thoughts I mean the only thing I would say on that that I feel like my commission is gaining on is that if we look five years from now back I think we're going to regret not having exposure to Chinese equities and I don't know in what way we do that or or what that looks like but it's just so like we're talking about this massive movement that's happening and you look at the valuations you look at the way that you know the IPOs in China etc have a left value for their people to actually have economic upside I think that it's going to look like a good trade five years from now to be have exposure to Chinese equities. Let's will we write at the top of the year remember at the end

33:54of the year we did love this review and in the end last year gold up from everything right like and actually European equities that performed American equities was that right in the end at the top of this year like looking back at last year even though all markets were obviously up like gold was higher US equities are higher European equities were higher was it in the end the case that European equities actually helped performed US because of the currency stuff potentially at some point they did outperform and I think a lot of that was related to cards to to the euro US dollar but if you look at it over a long period I think that is important mention as well not that it gave the wrong impression on that it's going to be a German website but it doesn't matter because all we want to see is the chart you can see the blue one is the S&P 500 right on is the stocks Europe 600s of the European index and the S&P has an average

35:01growth rate of 11.2% per year stocks Europe stocks stock 600 8% so if we look back last year that was the exception S&P 500 in 2025 did 4% stocks Europe to 600 did 20% but most of the years you will see the S&P being ahead by a good amount but yes last year was an exception where the stocks Europe 600 did significantly up to 1D S&P. Okay very enough I mean I still think you want a very broad exposure to US growth then all of the amazing tech that's going to come out of there I just think in addition to your point about Chinese equities actually in English saying if you're okay investing in Chinese in Chinese equates you are okay with investing without transparency well the numbers aren't lying English in some respects like the one thing that I think is the one thing that I think America is getting wrong right now these these valuations that these

36:05companies coming out they're doing what crypto does like it's a scam it's basically a scam at the highest level these companies are staying private longer than ever VCs are pumping the money into private companies longer and longer the valuations all the all the value gets taken by these these private venture capitalists and then they come to the market right at the end and say now okay you ordinary worker middle class office job or normal person buy this as part of your S&P portfolio 100X up on where I invested in it and I think the I mean the the numbers don't really make sense I don't think so whereas if you want people to participate in wealth generation not just like wealth accumulation over time yeah the Chinese IPOs most recently you actually came out 8x on this IPO price I think Zipu came out did a 4x or 5x or something like that there was one other Chinese

37:06company whereas there's no big multiples to be had on um I don't know maybe it's fine because they're kind of trying to fairly price it but you're getting big wealth generation events from even for participating in an IPO in these countries at the moment so I don't know I'm not next one the IPO stuff but it's just something to note as I've kind of started to look at the Chinese stuff a little more um okay what about uh we've got two more headlines to do today we're going to talk inflation because I think that is at its core for washes FOMC next week and just in general at the moment whether we're going to see hikes or not we're going to talk apples I've heard of but before we do skin to some trade ideas or the positioning conversation because I think crypto is looking a little bit jittery here I think someone in the telegram chat today said

38:07um crypto looks a bit jittery Hershey um where are we on our trade ideas for crypto itself what's the positioning perspective uh and what are you what are you kind of thinking about in the move take us to yeah I mean I definitely feel jittery as well so I can echo that that feeling uh you know after such a big impulse up with Bitcoin moving out of the 60ks and now we're just hanging around in this area it's definitely another one of these like long consolidated shops where feels like you could just bar and retrace but also that is the longer we stay in this kind of consolidation period the more likely is that we could just impulse higher again but so the main drivers within the on-chain ecosystem has you know bin robinhood chain and obviously pawns went from you know zero to close to a billion in very little time and now we see that 40 percent ish pullback that we were looking at a bit earlier yet it's still just generated 1.3

39:11million in revenue uh yesterday right so at a at a price earnings multiple it's still you know undervalue compared to pomp it's still undervalue compared to hype and it's this continual situation of people trying to understand can we really annualize revenue that's come for you know a month and now it's been two months and the longer that it sustains these uh can consists in revenue multiples then um it does start to look undervalue again um so this is kind of the first and major pullback um in the robinhood ecosystem I think pawns kind of losing steam has has had the floor fallout on a lot of other assets within the within the ecosystem um and for me personally I missed the pawns trade um but I've been holding AI artificial enue which is which is you know the the biggest kind of meme stock within the robinhood ecosystem um and its own launch pad uh um or connected to its own launch pad in the long dot xyz uh ecosystem and so in my mind

40:17it's the question of do we think this dip is really going to get bad and it's going to be a 60-70 percent drop um or is this the time to start averaging in holding your positions you're already in etc um personally I'm just holding um you know I bought into AI around 45 million so it's still up a good four five x um and i my experience of previous cycles is just you're going to have to eat through these 50 60 percent drawdowns and just stomach it on the way to to hire um and and yeah I don't know what you guys are thinking about if you're holding or want to allocate now that you see this first big dip um but but that's kind of that's that's where my head is at uh yeah okay yeah good good kind of summary here we are so you're you're in the whole holding holding strong position english saying hey crypto looks jittery could uh because the robinhood memes are down

41:1950 percent I think that's a good point in that I think someone said that in the chat and I then looked at the main stuff and i was like well because i'm predominantly allocated to z-cash in the moment i looked at z-cash and i'm like it's over 1200 it's fine so yes you you're going to feel more jittery the more you're in assets that you are less confident in i think uh mcael asks in ponds we trust time to dca we've got the chart up in a second so let's talk about that why did you job said robinhood has been a good early indicator for pumps and dumps so far um um let's looking at the ponds chart i spoke about ponds just a second ago um i was in very late it's still too axed i just got rid of it at around 700 800 because i was like look i wanted to take some off earlier this week um what do you think about ponds

42:20probably buying thinking about buying ponds um i like the so what is this drawdown here this is actually a pretty significant drawdown this morning right it's like more than 30 percent so far yeah i mean if you look from altem high we're going from 900 to 500 50 it's like 40 percent or so um it's quite it feels it instinctively feels similar to the stompal backtrade and if i made the argument that if that works out and now you see a bit of an english put it well it creeps to feels jittery because robinhood means that out 50 percent rest is doing quite well if i i think the robinhood season goes on and i think i thought that the stompal back worked so as a trade then i should think that this works as a trade as well so i'm gonna throw some money at it okay i said i also sold say everyone panicked i didn't know has he sold has he sold the whole position no we did yeah how she do you know no i don't know but i did see he was taking profit but i'm

43:27sure someone in here is in the wreck markets um subscription so i'm sure um someone has the cow just update us if he let yourself the hold i mean he had so much so i don't i mean maybe all these red candles i have i mean i would explain i would explain it to be honest um but yeah just we we we we calm verify that at the moment so we don't know um the only the only other piece of color that i would add is just that i never for is that you see this chart and then you have Vlad going to the Goldman Sachs conference yesterday and just you know his entire speech he's just talking about crypto talking about tokenized equities meme fi like he he is clearly making the sobriety for Robinhood moving forward so you see the CEO of Robinhood making that statement and this is what the chart looks like while revenue metrics are still good it i think it adds further to ledges by uh thought just because fun to imagine yeah okay so i i i i take that point but

44:29the the thing i think i shared um in the telegram as well this morning is that i'm just seeing way too many people think that okay so it might be the case that Robinhood's going all in on tokenized equities that could be true does mean all of these tokens are going to a billion so like i think i shared the the specific one i shared as a not as a just as an example of something that people were excited about i'm pretty sure i think the the nude sticker which was paired with snapchat stock people found funny for like six hours it like went up it went down it went up again and then it went down and now it's just not doing anything like it's not going anywhere the the time has the time has gone the everyone has moved on what would it take for these specific um stock memes to all get bit up together at the same time i i don't know you need

45:35you need a ringleader to be going after one stock to get super um excited about it and i just don't think i i can't see all of them going at the same time i think that's the the the challenge that people will find these can't go all at the same time um here we go nickel nickel shared in the chat pond after much liberation i'm sorry to cut most of my position so this week i'm down from three million coins to about three hundred and thirty five gosh so okay maybe so that is uh maybe OS that OSF red candle um i'm saying he sold it OTC uh doubly to coming in with ten dollars ponds to absorb all of the cell pressure from OSF absolutely love it um okay i don't know i mean i i i i don't i'm almost not

46:35disagreeing with the alleged in that it's probably the right time to buy the buy for a bounce but i just i wouldn't be confident in this going like a two x after personally i just thought for for the bouts you just bought yeah i just bought for the bounce could you could you probably gonna forget about could you pull up the i chart just yeah sure do you want me to buy that as well yes there you go just the crazy consolidation between two hundred and three hundred mil just like these wicks just it's been really fun just watching this in my heart racing at the top and bottom of every one of these wicks but um the longer it consolidates above two hundred below three hundred it just looks like it's geared to pop higher on this next leg so i just think this looks this chart looks really strong considering the blood bath that's happening across everything else right now so that's why i i feel confident holding this and even cutting everything else i have that's a little bit more um see that that strategy i don't mind that actually i don't

47:37mind someone actually being confident in one or two things and thinking like okay this is the way i'm gonna play you know you you said you have this this is Vlad is out here pushing Robin Hood tokenized equities you know and this is the way to capture it i just think you know 20 different stock tokens is not the way to play it in my opinion the catching all of them they suddenly rip to 26 mil or 20 mil like them what are you gonna do with that after that um i don't know yeah i feel weirdly more safe right now holding uh zcat at around a hundred mil and ai at around two hundred mil than these ones in the 40 or 50s like the fact that they've become the leader it's it i know it is it has further the fall but it almost feels like it's at least emerge from the other 30 fighting for that next spot to where if things go higher that's where like bigger cap law cater's will go when they go down the risk curve there was go to the number one thing

48:37on people's minds because it just feels slightly more accepted but we'll see how it works out i think we've got a liza in the chat here like you might be buying her bags i don't know if she's sold her position yeah she did an incredible trade on on ponds i don't know if do you risk near the top or not whether she's still in the majority but i'm not sure but now that you're buying had she might as well ride it up with her again um okay so look that's uh that's where we are on some of the robin and stuff personally my view is i think i'm still holding some of this stuff but i don't love it uh on this clear reflection on what i've made most money on in the last month or so z cash not zcat z cash is and and then you ask yourself question what's the point in holding this other stuff if uh z cash is up like 60% or something like that um in the last month plus quadrons and

49:41arcanauts so i think like high high quality interesting and if he's with a moat this is what i'm looking for i'm looking for moats but then again that's my style i want to be lazy when it comes to investing i don't want to have to press the buttons every five seconds i want to find something and hold it at least a week at least a few uh ideally months that would be my ideal scenario worse not that's not uh how things go at the moment are you laughing at i'm laughing because you you sound so you sound it so conservative at the start of your sentence and like such a responsible investor and say i want to hold stuff for longer at least a week in this market at least at least um okay all right look let's let's talk about inflation for a little because i think that's one of the key things that is on people's minds um so just for all people to know this is like the key information that you need to know ppi drops this morning uh those numbers

50:42drop this morning cpi drops tomorrow and uh the reason why these inflation numbers are so important is because wash will be having his fomc next week wash will be deciding along with uh the team whether to have no hike or to hike interest rates usually that is that decision is made at least in part based on inflation numbers and so if these inflation numbers are very high typically someone would feel under pressure to control them by either raising rates um and if they were not very high you'd say okay well we're doing fine inflation is not a concern therefore we can stay the same at the moment and not have to uh you know we don't have to take any risks there so i think you know i just wanted to bring that across people's desks so you know

51:44that that's coming in terms of what will actually happen i don't know 100 but it is probably just worth noting in addition that um best-in-s buybacks yesterday ended up being uh six billion and the treasury yield the ten year promptly spiked to 4.85 percent so you know he first came out with two billion dollars of buybacks then raised it to four then said there's going to be six you know the whole point of doing this is to try to curb the steepening yield but the yield is not uh getting curbed it continues to rise which means they're going to need to continue to buy back more so this yield quote yield curve control is going to be inflationary and you just wonder what that means for the uh fmc next week um

52:48tricky tricky situation uh for the fad and bessent both of them uh i don't know if i've entrust these numbers that come out to be honest uh i mean the jobs numbers don't they always release them and then like three months later they always get revised by huge huge amounts so i think the the trust in these numbers has kind of disappeared anyway when someone sells you that inflation is at 3.85 percent why would you believe that anyway everyone knows that it's high you can feel in your life that it's higher than 3.85 percent or whatever number is going to end up being uh and obviously it's supposed to be two which is no it's not been two percent for i think it's like three years someone said it hasn't been two percent so we're a million miles away from where it's supposed to be and well they keep claiming that they are intent on getting it to but there's just no real desire to enact the changes to uh achieve that objective so

53:53let's see we'll see what the numbers come out at today if i had to guess i am guessing that the numbers are okay and if they're if they're okay then they don't hike next week because they say it's okay and if they're not okay i think they still make up an excuse not to hike i just don't think we're going to get a hike personally and i know the favor that polymarket odds have gone the other direction i'm still of the opinion that there will be no hike um i'm not really positioned in a way for that i mean i'm just i'm just holding the core crypto i'm holding all those positions the one thing i do i want to get long gold again so i'm going to you know i'm just shipping this modern market product at the moment i'm going to when i get some time today or tomorrow i'm going to see how much more gold i want to put i might put a big long on gold on with the tight stop loss or something uh for the next week or so there might be the big kind of trade to for me to think about but uh that's it for me there guys any thoughts on inflation

54:58and hike no hike that's that's that's going to drive the market conversation now for the next seven days so what's your view right now if you look at polymarket um over the last day you can see one second and take up the screen share up these expectations haven't really changed anything like we are still at the same chances yesterday which is 48% no change 53% to see a 25-15 increase don't really have any any strong incination which way we lean or what either CPI or PPI will bring nor do i think that it's going to impact my trading for what i want to do with the like on-chain risk on then more conservative stock barbell too much so right now don't i'm not too concerned about these numbers okay great question here from Aksha um actually maybe i'll just pose this to you uh thoughts on oil looking to short anytime soon i do

56:03have a view on this i actually earlier in the week went short oil because i thought that in advance of the FOMC this is how rigged that i think everything is at this point i just think that everyone's manipulating everything and i think i thought that they're going to announce some type of additional ceasefire with Iran that would then bring oil down then they'll be able to say look guys inflation is fine no need to worry about it oils coming down again and now we don't need a hike that's what i thought was going to happen and then oil started ripping um further i got out of that short quite quickly rather than waiting for it to go back to a hundred and then i don't know sometimes i just wonder whether is it worth trading assets that you feel are so manipulated it's like we can't just guessing what the manipulators are doing rather than trading the asset i don't know if you have a few here hergy yeah i mean i don't uh yes short things like oil but i would say that when you look at the other headline we had today of the most green days in a row in three years

57:09and i think you look at it right around a hundred at this statistically range um and all these other data points leading up to you know them wanting to cool fears of hiics it does feel like a perfect time as you said for a little manipulation and um some sort of you were on uh tweet that that sends it back down again i i i think what makes more sense i like it i actually like it yeah i like that yeah and if you're not comfortable shorting you know something that feels manipulator i also think just buying you know like bitcoin probably will go up from this 77 78k range if oil starts falling because there's a ceasefire because so i think like you can also just trade things that maybe are a little more comfortable um because it's pretty obvious if oil starts just cratering bitcoin's going to go back towards a 3k so you know you could long that you could even long that short oil um if you wanted to but then i think yeah you're exposing yourself a bit more yeah uh you don't need to just necessarily short guess all right there's there's other things that will rip uh on on well i don't know if it will anymore because i don't know if the market's take

58:13any of these ceasefires seriously anymore but who knows i actually don't mind the short at 100 because what are you gonna get liquidated at like 115 120 depending on like if you're on 3x leverage or uh for i don't i don't actually know these numbers i'm making it up but say i mean you and you'd be very confident of defending like 120 if you had to go then add more to the short up at 120 so again maybe something crazy happens but uh definitely positionally this is the spot to do it if you want to do it i don't mind that to us yeah quite like it now uh better than when i tried it earlier in the week i was a little bit too early to it um all right let's final headline this is all you uh why don't you tell us why you think the apple duo is should be finding its way into all of our pockets absolutely um so yesterday we had the apple keynote not only introducing the new iPhone duo this foldable iPhone but also the iPhone 18 pro pro max airports five new

59:18uh Apple watch ultra four app which is series 12 uh the new product category that they have is the foldable and i just love to talk about this opening animation real quick and then get in more serious stuff and just love how beautiful that looks if you open it up and it feels like almost a real book how they made that transition work and that definitely call off the attention because all of the tech reviewers that's uh marques all of the other count on x up hosting exactly that animation i know it does nothing for you bi-check i personally love that um a lot uh also as part of that we have seen um some new prices uh iPhone pro max starting at 1300 iPhone 18 pro at 1200 and the iPhone duo while 256 gigs uh storage starting at two grand and if you push that up all the way to two terabytes of storage and you're gonna be at 3.2 um for that three thousand two hundred dollars swallah that is in the us obviously uh these things are way more expensive in europe uh the base model

1:00:24duo is two thousand six hundred euro so yeah for me so just the base model alone in dollar terms is pushing closer towards the three k i don't find these prices outrageous i'm gonna i'm gonna say it here because i feel like the iPhone users are just comparing it to regular iPhones but i'm not looking outside of um the iPhone market samsung obviously is now the company who has had the most foldables they are now at the samsung fold eight and they now have split that into two foldables one which has this iPhone sq i from two sqs um aspect ratio and then the more traditional one which is basically looking like a regular phone and then it's opening up and if you look at their top model that the one terabyte version which is the z fold eight ultra i think is what they call it at the two point seven k so foldables do have a higher price point and i think it's it's good that apple now has this category because um they are so expensive obviously they add more to um the

1:01:27profit share of the company and i looked at the data to find the first uh galaxy fold and the first galaxy fold i was back in 2019 they sold like four hundred to five hundred k units of that and now um what is it seven years later they are selling around nine million foldables in twenty twenty six so while that is only four percent of phones that they're selling they are responsible for almost twelve percent of the entire phone revenue because they are so damn expensive then we're expensive in like three hundred dollar phone shitter they are the most premium phones and apple analysts are forecasting for apple to hit around like six million foldables if the duo does well and it has more impact on their revenue it's a new product category and what i also think as absurd as it sounds so if you look at the max studios and what i look at always is the m5 ultram 256 gigs of RAM the top model that you can buy right now we talked about it when it came out two weeks ago so if you ordered it you would have gotten one

1:02:31in november then it pushed back to December if you order one today here in europe you have to wait until January because people are buying those and if you look back at phones we have this error where you had all the luxury phones the um luxury phone brands that completely disappeared and you simply cannot spend more and if you want to stay in the apple universe you can't spend more like one and a half grand on a phone yes you can top max out storage but nobody does that there's simply not a more expensive phone and they're solving for the problem because you clearly have not like sub segment of customers want to buy that and if you look at reddit everyone's got an iphone now right like everyone has like i guess there's space for it it's premium exactly and they have to same with the apple watch right there's the apple watch um ms but at least get the you know regularly up watch altruis like what one grand and if you get their mess one it's like three grand you can spend more than others but you can't do that on the phone like all you can do is you can buy the newest iphone pro max year if you want to spend more you can't and they're solving that issue

1:03:33and i know it sounds sort of sad to say that and that reminds me of it was a german Bentley CEO back in the day when they announced the Bentley Bentayga which is Bentley's SUV he went to the press conference when interview and said look uh up up to now if you're luxury the consumer all you could do if you wanted an SUV is you could spend like 130 grand you could go back then there was no big mw7 x5 was the like most premium or the the Mercedes the GLC's or GLE's you could not spend more than 130k on an SUV and he let you say now we're solving that problem with the Bentley Bentayga here is an SUV where you can drop 300k on that one that is yeah that is there's a segment of the market and it has a high-profit margin so i think it's good that iphone duo is apple's attempt to capture that interesting okay well uh apple stock looked pretty good

1:04:35in this and i disagree with english by the way in the comments who's saying Steve dropped rolling over his grave seeing an iphone foldable i don't know i keep always referencing like steve dropped it's a completely different company apple now these days and and and you know now we have the new CEO you had him before that for such a while but they did grow that to be the largest company in the world and have that battle with nvidia who's number one who's number two but it did grow into a five trillion company so i don't think that design wise and success wise they're doing that bad because apple gets a lot of like steve jobs would roll in this grave set up a type of criticism they just don't think this is fair or just criticism to be honest. he's defending his bags english don't worry largest single stock holding he'll defend him don't worry about it all right good show guys uh we will be back at the same time same place tomorrow friday to close out the week and uh that's it have a great day thanks to my cohosts

1:05:39legendary and her she for joining me today we're back same time same place tomorrow have all no wonderful day guys see you tomorrow bye bye