UPDATE: Russian tankers to Cuba. Is it enough to prevent Cuba takeover?

0:00All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the situation in Cuba. We had massive blackouts a couple of days ago. We have Trump saying that he's going to take Cuba, and we also have Russia now sending a couple of tankers full of oil and gas to Cuba as well. And we have a defiant DS who is saying that Trump is not going to just walk in here and take Cuba, but the blockade continues. And the troubles are great for Cuba. And all of this is happening at a time when we have two wars going on, one in Ukraine and the one in the Middle East. So what's happening with Cuba? Exactly. I'm going to say that I think we have been well ahead of pretty much every other comment commentaries about this when the American siege of Venezuela began. We said that ultimately it's always, it's going to be about Cuba.

1:03Rubio is basically running the policy. His little difficulty winning Trump over to this. Trump has always been very willing to go after leftist governments that last in America and to pursue them. We know that he doesn't like them. Rubio has never had any real trouble getting Trump on site. So the idea was stop exports of oil from Venezuela, use that to impose an embargo on Cuba and oil blockade of Cuba because Cuba got its oil from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Mexico and try and use that to coerce regime change in Cuba itself, which is clearly the policy. I mean, when they say they want the president to leave, they're really looking to achieve this regime change. If you look at the various demands that they're making fundamental reforms or changes,

2:06they always call them reforms, but basically the privatization of the entire Cuban economy and the return basically of the Cuban community, the Cuban exiles in Florida, I mean, it is the reversal of everything that has happened in Cuba since Fidel Castro took power in 1959. And Cuba let itself be placed in this position. It could over many years have diversified its oil supplies. It had, as I remember, regular visits from Russia, especially, Cuba was one of the very first countries Putin visited after he became president of Russia back in 1990, I remember. There's been many delegations there, the Russians have floated all kinds of plans for economic

3:09cooperation with Cuba. There's been discussions about the Russians restarting work on the nuclear power station that the Soviet Union was building in Cuba. There was suggestions that the Russians would help to build a metro in Havana, which could certainly do with the metro by all accounts. The Cubans never showed any interest in any of these projects, which always in the end, as a result, went nowhere. Cuba preferred to stick with Venezuela, because the government in Venezuela was extremely loyal to Cuba. And as we know, Maduro had a Cuban bodyguard, and now, of course, when the Americans did impose this blockade, the Cubans from themselves where they were. Now, very reluctantly, I get the sense they've had to turn to the Russians, and the Russians are sending tankers to Cuba. So we have a big Russian tanker with 730,000 barrels of oil.

4:15And we also have another ship, which is called Carrying Natural Gas. If they reach Cuba, if in other words, if the Americans don't try and prevent them from reaching Cuba, that's about 10-day supply. That's all it is. It's about 10-day supply at normal rates. You can spin it out longer if you husband it. This can only work if the Cubans finally commit to a long-term relationship with the Russians. That will, of course, come at a significant economic and political price. There is also the question about whether the Americans are going to allow these Russian tankers to reach Cuba at all. For the moment, they don't see to be taking any steps to stop them.

5:17And of course, the US is now very involved in the Middle East. And it may be that there would be worries that if you started acting against Russian tankers with oil in the high seas, that could also create a further problem in global energy markets, which might be something that this administration and this time would prefer to avoid. But the point is this, ultimately, if the oil gets to Cuba, if the oil from Russia gets to Cuba, if the natural gas from Russia gets to Cuba, the Cuban leadership then has to make a decision. Do they persist in their policy of negotiating with the United States? Do they use, in other words, these oil deliveries and gas deliveries from Russia, which apparently come for free, by the way? Do they use them simply in order to buy themselves more time and more leverage to try to negotiate

6:25a better deal with the Americans, which would be, in my opinion, a fatal mistake because Rubio and the people in charge in Washington will never ease off on their demands. Or do they instead return to the old relationship with the Russians, which the Russians are offering, which, of course, will come with a turn price? What would be the price? Right. Well, the Russians would certainly want also radical changes in the way the Cuban economy is run. They would want partial privatizations of their own in the Cuban economy. They would want the Russians invested heavily, Russia investing itself in the Cuban economy. The Russians talked at one time of using Cuba as a forward station for Russian companies seeking to promote exports and business contacts in the rest of Latin America.

7:31And what it could see, the attractions. But of course, the other thing that the Russians would undoubtedly want is that they would want a major slice of Cuba's tourism industry, which is very big and very attractive and probably very attractive to many middle-class and wealthier Russians. They would want a big slice of Cuba's luxury goods industry. It's wrong, it's cigars, those kinds of things. I should say that during the period of the Soviet Union, Cuba got economic aid from Russia from the Soviet Union. Mostly for free, they did not export high-end cigars to the Soviet Union, for example. They exported it all to the West. The current leadership in Moscow, much more hard-nosed, they will not allow that. They will want a Cuba that becomes much more tightly integrated into the Russian and

8:33ultimately breaks the economic system. And that would lose Cuba, a lot of its room for political maneuver, but it would perhaps enable Cuba to preserve some of the social achievements of the Castro Revolution, its health service, its education system, that kind of thing. Well, with the United States to allow this. Well, I'm not sure that they will. I mean... I mean... And my follow-up question is, why not stop the ships if you're in the United States? I mean, Russia is not going to do anything if you stop the ships. Well, that's most likely Russia will not do anything, I don't say they're not, but most likely. Well, they have gone to the point of actually sending the ships. And at a time when there is now a crisis in the global energy markets, the Russians do have significantly more leverage. So Trump, apparently one of the things he talked about in the conversation he had with Putin

9:41about a week ago, was that he wanted Russian help to try and stabilize global energy markets. And if the US is interfering in this sort of way with Russian oil traffic, it may be that the Russians will prove less accommodating there. So we don't know what the Russians are going to do. The thing is they have gone as far as this. They sent a tanker, they sent two tankers, one with oil, one with natural gas. So far the United States has not imposed a formal military blockade of Cuba in the way that JFK did during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. There's no word yet from the United States that they're thinking of doing that. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Perhaps at this moment in time Donald Trump was more important things to worry about.

10:42I mean, I think it's simple. I think this time around, they'll let the ships pass most likely because it's like you said, it's 10, 15 days. So they're probably saying whatever, let these ships pass Cuba, Cuba gets another two weeks. Yeah. But I can't imagine Trump allowing consistent oil and gas to arrive to Cuba. I cannot see the Trump administration, Rubio, forget Trump, Rubio is writing the show. I cannot see Rubio allowing that. Quite likely. I mean, I don't push back against that at all. I think the sooner or later, maybe the United States will say that further imports of oil from Russia to Cuba are desolate. Yeah. I mean, that would be, that would, by the way, be the final, I think if we get into that kind of situation, then I think that's the final end of any possibility of a relationship between Russia and Cuba and Russia and the United States.

11:43Well, the Russians have today announced that the trilaterals negotiations are indefinitely are indefinitely and ended. But they're keeping the US Russia intact. They're keeping Dmitriy Afran. But that, the Russians could argue to themselves, mainly more legitimately, gives them a certain leverage. But the point is this. I'm not, it's not a question here. What does the Russians intend or even what do the Americans intend? The immediate, more pressing, more urgent questions, what do the Cubans themselves intend? Are they simply going to take this oil and this gas that the Russians are giving them free as a humanitarian gesture, simply in order to buy themselves time, in order to negotiate a better deal with the Americans, or will they actually rethink their entire political

12:45strategy of the last 20 years and adjust their policies? This is what I think they're going to do based on everything they've done up to now. I think they're going to use this as buying themselves a little bit more time, thinking that it gives them a little bit more leverage and trying to negotiate, continue to negotiate in the way that they have been doing with the Americans. And the result is that the Russian Walls oil deliveries will stop because the Russians have no interest in sending oil for free to Cuba if all Cuba is going to do is agree a deal with the Americans. Why would the Russians want to do that? In which case, Rubio and Trump don't need to impose an oil blockade because it becomes unnecessary. I just wonder from the Cuban side, their thinking is even if we enter into an agreement

13:47with Russia and with China, if the United States decides to restrict parts of that agreement or to restrict completely that agreement, Russia and China are not going to push back against the United States. I wonder if that's what they're thinking. So it's almost useless to even go down that path because Russia and China are not going to push back against the United States. Well against that, they have the evidence of the fact that there are two ships now steaming towards Cuba, one with oil and one with gas. So it's not as if the Russians have done nothing. There's also reports that both the Russians and the Chinese have been sending solar panels about battery-powered things and all of those things to Cuba as well, which is to some extent mitigating the crisis. I suspect that there is an intense debate about all of this going on in Cuba. But to be honest and to be frank, I've never got the impression at any time over the last

14:5020 plus years that the Cubans have had any real interest in resuming the relationship with Russia. I've never really sensed it. They've had opportunities to do this. They've been offered this time and again. The Russians did some work helping to restore Cuba's railway network. They did some work with restoration of one of the big civic buildings in Havana. But the relationship has never developed in the way it could have done. The Cubans have never shown any real interest in it. And I don't think it's because they don't think that the Russians will push back or because the Chinese will push back. It's because I don't think they want to do it. I think they feel that ultimately making these deals with the Russians will put them back in the Russians pocket and they don't want to be there. And I think it's as simple as that.

15:51I suspect that by now, by the way, Cuba has evolved very considerably from what it was like in the heyday of Fidel Castro's time in the 70s. And 80s, I suspect that there are many, many economic and financial lobbies in Cuba itself who want to preserve the tourist flow from North America, from Europe, who want to maintain the flow of cigars and run to all of these European countries. They don't want to jeopardize all of that by getting back into an old relationship with the Russians, which has basically lost its relevance as far as they could set to the Cuba that exists today. No doubt. If you're the Cuban leadership, you're probably thinking in terms of proximity, geography, as well. And perhaps you just say, you know what, it's time to figure out something with the United

16:58States. It makes sense. I mean, you know, it is what it is. Trump applied the pressure. And you applied the blockade, which is illegal, but he did it, not that international law matters. But now Cuba is going to have to make a decision. It seems. And okay, they're going to have another two weeks to make that decision, but they're going to have to make that. Give it. Okay. Give it two months. No, I agree. It's too much. Still. They're going to have to make a decision sooner or later. The point is, and here we come back again, the Cuban decisions, they depended on Venezuela. If they wanted to make a deal with the United States, if that was the objective, if they looked at the geography, and they said that ultimately we have to repair relations with the United States. And this should have been our priority. They should have started on that process also long ago. They could have done that in Biden's time. They took the first step in a barmer's time, but they never did any of these things.

18:02They depended entirely and disastrously on Venezuela and the relationship there. And I'm going to make a simple guess. I think all sorts of people in Cuba also probably had personal interests in preserving the relationship with Venezuela, and they didn't want to jeopardize it. So this is now where they are. They are where they are. They have to make a choice. It's, it's, it's, it's why everything you've said, they still have to make a choice. Who do they go with now? Rubios has said he's implacable. The Russians are coming with the same offers. They've been consistently making for at least the last 20 years. Ever since Putin became president again, by the way, whether the Cubans are interested in them anyway, regardless of whatever geo-strategic pressure they have, I'm very, very much down, but that is the reality.

19:05Yes, where I was, where I was getting to is, okay, like Venezuela, they made many, many errors perhaps in trying to integrate over the past 10 years more with, with bricks. You can argue, maybe they should have integrated more with Brazil. Maybe you can argue that Brazil should have done more. Maybe bricks should have done more. Okay, but we are where we are. The point that I was going to make on geography. All they should have pursued, when they were in a much stronger position, a better relationship with the US, which is always an option. However, I mean, you know, there have been times when the US has been implacably hostile as it is now, but there have been other times also. When it was different, they could have worked with more people on the left of the Democratic Party, when the Democrats were in the ascendancy, but they never did. They were content with a relationship they had with Venezuela.

20:07And they thought that they didn't need to change anything. And that's why they are in the position that they're in today. They didn't look far enough down the road. If they'd taken more steps, if they'd diversified their economic context, if they'd developed an economic relationship, an open economic relationship with the Russians. If they'd done all of that in the past, still they would have been in a better position than the one that they're in today. If they'd moved forward into the grip, into the bricks, which by the way they were offered, still they would have been in a better position than they are in today. But they did, they instead were very, very happy, became far too complacent and far too comfortable with the situation that they already had. Now, under pressure, they have to make decisions. And it may be that the inevitable choice is to basically close down the entire Cuban revolution

21:14post-1959, because to be clear, if Ruby and people like that get back into Cuba, then everything that cast her a built up, you did lots of things. He did things that I would not agree with. He did other things like the health system, the education system, which everybody says has worked quite well. But all of those things, all of those things will be set aside and dismantled, probably they will be anyway. Because geography is so significant when covering geopolitics, perhaps the point that I was trying to make is perhaps China and Russia should see what's happening in the region of North America and the Caribbean, and take note of it, Russia, when it comes to Ukraine. But more than that, my point is perhaps China should also take a look at Taiwan, because because the US is obviously making a point here, whether it's Venezuela or whether it's

22:19the Caribbean or even whether it's Cuba or whether it's even Denmark. Greenland. Yeah. Well, there's even an article now in Bloomberg which is saying that the Chinese now are indeed telling themselves that a war over Taiwan is coming and that they need to start to prepare for that war, maybe as early as next year. The China's and Russia's geography is very different from America's. America is it kind of island. It's got the two oceans to the east and the west. It dominates its neighborhood. No country close to the United States can ever hope to rival it in power. In terms of China and Russia, it's much more complicated. I mean, countries like Japan, South Korea, Germany, our substantial powers, even in their current state. And they don't dominate the region around themselves as utterly and as comprehensively as

23:29the United States can dominate the countries that you just named dominate because the United States is in back of them. Well, indeed. You remove the United States from Germany, remove the United States from Japan or remove the United States from South Korea and these countries do not dominate. So, the point is that it's China's neighborhood when dealing with Taiwan, which is China, Taiwan is China. It's not forget that, even recognized by the United States as part as China. It is the United States that is in their neighborhood and the same goes for you create in Russia. It is the United States that is in their neighborhood at the same holds for Iran as well. What are you doing? The United States in our neighborhood. The Middle East in general, where the complaint of the United States with regards to say Russia moving, doing a deal with Cuba, let's say they're putting together a deal. It's the United States that would say, no, no, no, you can't come into our neighborhood.

24:30Yes. Yes. But this is where the not just geography but history plays to the American advantage because America is present in all of these regions as a legacy of its victory in the Second World War. The fact that American troops were in Europe at the end of the Second World War, the fact that American troops were in Japan at the end of the Second World War, that the United States as a result of that was able to develop his vast network of bases. The fact that the United States was able to develop his enormous fleet. Russia and China are not able to draw on those advantages that are the legacy of history. Now of course, over time, perhaps as the balance of power changes, the dynamic changes

25:32too and it becomes more and more difficult for the United States to sustain this global presence and the United States itself starts to feel overextended and there are already people like Elbridge Colby, as we know, who are making precisely those points. But even if you allow for that, Japan is a huge country, it's got 100 million plus people. Germany has what 90 million plus people. Turkey, as we'd had a very big country, is also an ally of the United States as a legacy of that time. It's a country with tens of millions of people. Cuba is very small place. It can't defend itself. It's far away. It's in the Russians of the Chinese could never find the kind of allies in America. America's neighborhood, convincing allies that the Americans for historical reasons have

26:37been able to find in theirs. So this is going to take a very, very long time before it is fully unscrambled. There are no allies there that would do for Cuba what the allies do for the United States against China or for the United States when it comes to Russia. Cuba is a strategic, I mean, this is the other thing. I mean, if you're talking about the Soviet Union, it was a strategic liability. It cost an awful lot of money to keep it going because Cuba never paid back. I mean, it couldn't. It had to be defended, which brought the Soviets to the brink of nuclear war with the United States in 1962. There is, as I've discussed many times, very strong sentimental feelings about Cuba in Russia, less so, I believe, China. But those factors continue to remain in play.

27:39Now to repeat again, if we are looking at a potential future, great power rival for the United States and the Western hemisphere, realistically, it's not going to be China or Russia. It's going to be Brazil, but that is decades away if it ever happens at all. Yeah. All right. We will end it there at TheRan.Logas.com. We're on X-Run, Rumble, we're on Telegram. We are also on Substack and go to the Iran Shop, pick up some merch, 30% off selected items in the Iran Shop. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.