Unexpected Iran Development, Major Marijuana Shift, Market Surprise | 4/24/26 FIRST LOOK

0:00Good morning everybody, it's Friday, April 24th, 2026, and this is first look. We've got a packed show for you today. Here's what's coming up. Trump says Iran is in chaos, and the U.S. now has total control of the Strait of Hormuz. A major federal move on medical marijuana, what changed and why it matters. And later, the stock market is surging, outperforming historical averages in Trump's second term. Let's get into it. We start overseas where the pressure campaign against Iran appears to be hitting a breaking point. President Trump says Iran is not just struggling economically, it's struggling internally at the highest levels. In a post this week, Trump said Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is, describing a country now divided between hardliners and so-called moderates who were

1:00pulling in different directions. And while that internal chaos plays out, the U.S. is holding the upper hand strategically. Trump made it clear, the United States has total control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical shipping lanes in the world. His message was blunt, no ship is moving through that strait without U.S. approval, and it will stay that way until Iran comes to the table and makes a deal. That's not a small lever, that's the lever when it comes to global energy flow. At the same time Iran's leadership situation is anything but stable. The newly installed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khameini, hasn't been seen publicly since taking power, reportedly after being seriously injured in the strike that killed his father. So what you're looking at now is power concentrated inside the Revolutionary Guard, political figures trying to negotiate with the U.S. and no clear unified leadership direction.

2:03Even the White House acknowledges these divisions are complicating negotiations, and that's part of why the U.S. is maintaining pressure. Bottom line here, Iran is fractured, the U.S. is in control, and the longer this standoff continues, the more leveraged shifts toward Washington. Back here at home, the Trump administration just made a major policy move that's been debated for decades. Medical marijuana is now being reclassified at the federal level, moved from schedule 1 to schedule 3. Now that might sound technical, but it's actually a big shift. Schedule 1 is where drugs like heroin sit, substances with no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse. Schedule 3? That's a completely different category, recognizing legitimate medical use and allowing for more regulated access. So what changes? Researchers will have an easier time studying cannabis, doctors will have clearer guidance,

3:05and licensed medical marijuana businesses will now be able to deduct expenses on their federal taxes for the first time. That last part is huge, it essentially legitimizes an industry that already exists in most of the country. Forty states already have medical marijuana programs, two dozen allow recreational use. The federal government has been behind the curve for years, and this is a step toward catching up. The administration says this is about expanding medical access while still maintaining strong enforcement against dangerous drugs like fentanyl. And they're not stopping here. A broader review is already scheduled for June, which could lead to even more changes down the line. So this isn't the end of the conversation, it's the beginning of a new phase. And finally, let's talk about the economy, because while the headlines often focus on uncertainty, the markets are telling a very different story. The S&P 500 is up 19% since the start of Trump's second term.

4:09That's not just solid, that's significantly above historical averages. To put it in perspective, the average gain under presidents going back to 1961 is about 6%. Even in more recent decades, it's around 15%. So this current run is outperforming by a wide margin. Both the S&P 500 and Mazdaq have hit record highs recently. The Dow even crossed 50,000 for the first time ever earlier this year. And this is all happening despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, tariffs that critics warned would damage the economy and constant predictions of downturn. Instead, investor confidence is climbing. A recent poll found 52% of Americans say now is a good time to invest, including a notable share of Democrats. American markets are also optimistic, giving about a 64% chance the market finishes the year in positive territory.

5:10So while the narrative out there might be mixed, the actual numbers are pretty clear. Markets are strong, confidence is up, and performance is exceeding expectations. That's your first look this Friday, Iran under pressure and showing signs of internal fracture. A major shift in federal marijuana policy and an economy that continues to outperform what the critics predicted will keep tracking all of it. I'm Dave Rubin. Thanks for starting your day with first look. We'll see you next time.