Uneasy Money: Why the Aave DAO Collapse Could Be Good for Aave

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2:06All right, hey everyone. Our first segment, as it has been now, I think, for maybe the last month or so, is going to be on Abe governance. Another core contributor of the Abe Dow has rage quit, I guess, is probably the best way of putting it. So we actually had Mark Zeller on the show a few weeks ago, who is, I guess, the spiritual leader, actual leader of the Abe Chan initiative. And they've said that they will wind down their work with Abe. And potentially even wind down their work completely. They might be dissolving ACI completely. I think is the latest thing that I heard. So yeah, this is the second major contributor, BGD and ACI, the two major contributors outside of Abe Labs. And my sense from kind of the timeline and all the conversations and talking

3:11to Mark is that like between BGD and ACI, that is the majority of the engineering resources that we're working on, certainly Abe V3. I guess Abe V4 has been led more by Labs, but V3, which is the protocol that has the most TBL, is led by them. So look, I think we have continued to be surprised by the escalation of the situation. Like if these guys had UAVs, they would be firing them at each other is my hot take, which like I just, I don't know. I don't know how we got to this point where like everyone's just like we're completely out. I think the only thing I'll say before I hand it over to you guys for your your takes is like we talked about this maybe on like the first or second show, this idea that like the idea of dals, right, like this this dals theory,

4:16dals governance, whatever. And I know tell you're a huge fan of this theory, but this idea that like dals are a thing that can work was really hanging by a thread called Abe for a long time. All of the other dals had collapsed on themselves or you know failed to allocate funds or you know a bunch of different issues that we'd seen in dals governance over the years. And Abe was like the only functional dals that really had it shipped together and they have imploded. So yeah, I don't know if this is like the final, final nail in the coffin for dals, but it definitely I think kind of leads towards this idea of more corporate driven protocol development and having centralized entities that are driving these these protocols moving forward because I don't know who else really

5:16is picking up the dals, you know, mantle to to leave this thing, you know, now that now that labs runs, Abe basically, Abe labs runs, Abe, you know, and that's kind of where we sit today. As a big depositor in Abe, would you be concerned about this thing? How are depositors of Abe supposed to look at this game? So my take is no, I didn't, I haven't taken any funds out of Abe. And I think this is one of the nice things. On the continuum of like decentralization and censorship resistance and immutability, Abe is pretty good. You can't unfortunately, like Abe V3 in particular, right, is pretty good, pretty isolated. People can't do that much off chain that will blow it up. You know, there are obviously risks to anything that is mutable where the parameters can be

6:19changed, but like my heart take is this doesn't have almost any risk for people in V3. It definitely has some risk, I think, for like the overall protocol in terms of, you know, growth and adapting to the market and all of that stuff. And so, you know, I think everyone who has funds in Abe is probably thinking about, you know, what they might do, but I don't know that there's like a credible alternative realistically for the billions of dollars in TBL that people are just going to jump straight to. Yeah. And thank goodness for that. Jesus Christ. Yeah, I don't know. I kind of expected it to not go this way. Not be this? I know. Yeah, you, you put, like, you've had a weird opening. I'm tired. I'm tired. It is not really all right. So I don't know what's going on there. I don't know. I wish that they would just kiss and make up and everything would be fine,

7:23but I guess we didn't get there. I think the most surprising thing to come on this is actually, there were like a lot of people that this news was like bullish for them. Yeah. And I was a bit surprised by that because, I don't know, like, I just, in my view, and maybe I'm just wrong, but like, in my view, like, the other labs guys have not been sort of like sitting there neck deep in this, right? And the people that have been and really understand this stuff are rage quitting? To me, that's not bullish. Yeah, you don't need to understand things today. Like, what's, like, understanding things is not the most critical part of running a protocol. I don't know. I don't know what wing of protocol will develop. But look, I think that's fair. I mean, just on the people seem bullish on this,

8:24right? I think my take is that there are a lot of people, including myself, that have a lot of respect for Stanny. And our friends with Stanny, and, you know, interestingly, Stanny has not tapped me on the shoulder, although we did try and get him on the show, to say, like, start the machine, right? Like, so he hasn't brought me into this to be like, we need, you know, moral supporter or whatever. You know, I think I've been, I've been fairly supportive of like a reasonable resolution to this, but it hasn't, that hasn't worked. So, so yeah, I think there's a lot of people who feel an obligation to Stanny or whatever, you know, he's been around for a long time. He's done a lot of things for a lot of people in the space, helped a lot of people that, you know, even in the background, people don't realize. And so, there is a little bit of like, probably, Stanny will figure this out. Like, you know, don't panic sort of thing. And of a mark in the previous group,

9:27like, what were they, were they getting paid a service fee? Like, what type of alignment are they for, for going by leaving this initiative? Like, yeah. The Dow was paying them, but not very much. Is my, my sense, right? Like, single digit millions of dollars over like four years. So, their budgets, the budgets for BGD and ACI, as I understand it, were quite small, certainly small relative to Ave Labs. Ave Labs was much, a much bigger org. Those orgs were much smaller. So, yeah, I, you know, I think for, for BGD, my sense is they're going to go and work on something else. For ACI, the sense is that they aren't. But I think ACI was a much smaller team, like, some 10 people. So, you know, a little bit easier to dissolve that than like a 25 person engineering team. Yeah. And I think most of the bullishness ultimately comes from this sort of

10:34overall bearishness on Dallas and people feeling like, oh, okay, so we can stop pretending that the Dow is the thing and we can just like go to the moon now or whatever. I'm not quite sure that that's actually how things are going to play out. But I guess we will see. And then yeah, I think a lot of things like Ave has. So, there's V4 obviously, but there's like the mobile app that people are quite bullish on. So, yeah, I guess, I guess we'll see on the one hand. It's going to be a test of incentive alignment, right? Yeah. Like there's been an equilibrium of incentive alignment that obviously was more fragile than we thought. There will be a new incentive alignment equilibrium that is going to be very interesting to watch, right? Like things like the mobile app essentialized thing that a Dow struggles to, you know, you struggle to publish a mobile app whereas labs can easily publish that. And we've seen this with Uniswap a little bit as well, right? Like Uniswap has been sort of speedrunning this, right? Like you can own the interfaces,

11:38interfaces, distribution, et cetera. You know, we're very powerful. So, yeah, there's something to be said for like, this is not I think necessarily like a situation where you say it's completely dire. Like there's a, there are multiple good outcome possibilities out of this that could come. There's just people, you know, on the other side of it who particularly mark, I think, that are like obvious dead basically is, you know, the TLDR. So I don't know about that. I don't know about that. I think that's, yeah. I mean, there's a lot of money on the table for it to not be dead. So that's it's going to take some work to like really kill it. I will say just like my impression of the handling of this, it's just like really messy and kind of gross leaves a really gross taste in your mouth. I guess that everything's supposed to be like transparent and we do get out in public

12:40and stuff, but it's really not a good look. And it does not ultimately leave me that bullish on Awe or Awe leadership, even though I do have respect for Stony, I think that like this is just not the, the series of choices that various people made here did not get to the best outcomes. And that leads me not super enthused to like love Awe anytime soon. Yeah, it's going to be, it's going to be interesting. So I mean, you know, there's also like a wine down period as well, right? Like this is not, you know, rage, like I said, rage quit half jokingly, right? Like the plan is to, you know, hand over to labs and figure that out. You know, I do think that there is a world where a more vertically integrated, less down like Awe is actually fine. You know, probably, I think, and I don't know about your take on this, Luke, but like,

13:40particularly when it comes to conversations with, say, institutions and, you know, and people like that, probably harder to have a conversation with BlackRock being like, hello, I am the Awe Chan initiative and I live inside of the Ethereum blockchain and, you know, like that, those conversations are probably harder to have, I would imagine, then like, hi, you know, I'm, I'm standing, I run Awe Labs out of London and we're going to do some stuff for you. So, you know, yeah, I don't know, Luke, what your, what your experiences with that sort of thing? I'll take, I'll take this side that this is going to be incredibly bullish for Awe. That's this side that I'll take for the reasons that you just explained. I think when you think about the future of, you know, you know, let's call Awe what it is. It's the great bank on chain. I mean, today, right? I mean, who else

14:42comes close to it? Maybe Morpho, maybe some of the things that you've been doing, but as far as I'm concerned, I feel safe as parking my money with Awe. I do not question Stony's integrity in terms of, you know, user funds, I think all of that stuff is kosher to the best of their ability in terms of, you know, obviously, a minus act of God or like, you know, their whole team getting hog tied and, you know, asking for a secret phrase. I think this is going to be better for those reasons. I think you're going to be able to ship product faster. You're going to be able to do deals, you know, without the semantics of dowels and boats. Nobody wants to hear that when doing a deal. And I've always just been a huge fan of, I've kind of been one of the, one of the components of the anti-dow leadership as somebody who was being really pressured and pushed into pushing Pudgy Penguins into a dow and we acquired it. I think every holder would say that thank God we did not put Pudgy Penguins into a dow because we unequivocally would have failed and not be here today. Yeah, I think that's

15:46fair. I think that's fair. And you know, like when you're talking about brand building, when you're talking about, you know, these sorts of things, right? Like there is definitely empirical evidence that dowels are not good at that stuff. Like they're not good at the like kind of user facing brand building, you know, distribution gathering side of business. So yeah, I tend to agree, like a more vertically integrated Ave could actually be quite bullish. I do think though that, you know, having outsourced the engineering capability for the last, you know, two or three years, like that's not an easy thing to solve. And so I think that there's some work there to like restructure this. And, you know, but yeah, like I think long term on bullish on Ave, I think this

16:47whole thing has just been a huge distraction and didn't need to get to this point. But hopefully this is the end of this part of it. And everyone can kind of move on in this new Ave world. One last question I had is what the heck is the off a token going to be used for your school for like moving forward? Like wasn't it a lot of it the governance and the budgeting and that kind of stuff? Yeah, this is the problem, right? I think that's a that's a very reasonable question to ask because, you know, whether it's a good idea or not, most of the utility of a token outside of like any kind of, you know, buybacks or whatever, right? Comes from doubt governance for protocols. So if that is not a thing anymore, and I don't know that it's not a thing, I think that like, you can have, you know, Uniswap is very centralized, Taden runs it, etc, etc. But there is still

17:55you know, the necessity of having on chain votes. And there's still a governance structure that underlies that. Even if the allocation of resources in terms of what they're building and what they're trying to do and the direction of the protocol itself is somewhat centralized. There's still checks and balances, you know, and and so I do think that this will rationalize into something more like that, right? Like, are they holders do still control the protocol on chain? And so, you know, I don't think you lose that completely. At the end of the day though, and, you know, Luca, I think you've said this many times on the show, right? Like the value of the protocol is like the value of the brand, right? Like if people believe in the brand, it's, you know, it's an on-chain bank, right? If people trust it and they put their money in it, it's going to be fine. If they don't trust it and they don't put their money in, it's not going to be fine. And like, it's pretty binary. And so, you know, all of the extra stuff governance structures and votes and

19:00on-chain things and resource allocation and budgeting, like, is all a distraction from like, do people believe that Ave is a safe place to put their money to borrow and to lend? Yeah. Yeah, no, I mean, the thing is like, I don't know, I guess ultimately like, I would still use Ave. I seen a reason to buy Ave tokens at this point though, although I never really did, to be honest. Yeah, I'm getting more so, okay guys. Yeah, now I really know fine. Are you shorting? Are you shorting Ave here? Is that what it sounds like? I mean, maybe if I like, if I was, if I was more active trader, like, I feel like that it may have been like the switch, just because I just don't see, it's just drama right now. It's just drama. I don't see, well, in like this last vote especially, it became pretty clear that any governance can be basically passed with like the Ave Labs wallets.

20:02So, like, I don't know, unless you tell me there's like another secret utility for the Ave token that's super bullish, like, it seems like this is just going to perpetually, you know, kind of crash and burn. Even if, even if Ave says, like, good and their TVL knows. Yeah, I will look, I mean, you know, again, I go back to like distribution is the most valuable thing that you can have, right? And if Ave's distribution gets better by being more vertically integrated and there isn't the, and this is a risk for sure, right? If there isn't the kind of misalignment of incentives of like value capture happening in labs and not to the token, which Stenny has said he does not intend to do that's not, you know, he's still a large token holder. You have to have some belief in that, right? Provided this, which is I think, in fairness, a lot of Marx concern has been this like misalignment of incentives of like labs capturing value

21:04and not going to the Dow, et cetera, you know, owning the brand, whatever. But provided there isn't this misalignment of incentives, then, you know, more value should float the token. That would be that would be the hope, I would say. Whether that plays out, how that plays out, it's going to be a very interesting experiment. You know, if it turns into something that is more like old school uni swap, where like all the value was captured in the equity entity and none of it flowed on chain, that's that's super bearish for the Ave token, like super bearish. And bearish for tokens in general, to be honest, like, you know, Ave is ruined dials for us now. Let's hope they don't ruin tokens. I don't think we'll stay optimistic, guys. I think it would be better if you flip back to being pessimistic again, because your optimism has

22:05kind of burned us here. I'm not liking it. I'm not liking it. It's my fault. It's all mine. One of my one of my favorite shows is the rest of development, and there's like a scene in the rest of development where they're watching the TV and the company that like their family company, the guy who's like the mad money style, like presenter, upgrades the company to a don't buy, and I feel like we just got like a tape. Obviously, no, graded to don't buy. Exactly what happened. Yeah. Well, I literally know when should ever take my advice, all my prices are trading ever. Like it's a terrible idea. All right. Good. Yeah, there. So let's move on to the next topic. So near, near had their like annual conference last week, they announced a bunch of things as near loves to do. But I think the main

23:09the main thing that they announced, which personally I'm very excited about, is this idea of private execution. So near launched near intense, which is a mechanism that allows you to use the near chain to control other chains, particularly shitty legacy chains like Bitcoin that don't have smart contracts. And so a chain that doesn't have smart contracts, you can kind of put this wrapper around these non smart contract chains and control them remotely via near. But near being a public blockchain, like Ethereum, it's just public smart contracts, everything's transparent. You couldn't really get the benefit of like privacy. And the most interesting thing was that near started to support Zcash. But when you move Zcash with near, and Zcash obviously is interesting because it has both shielded and unshielded transactions. But moving money via near

24:14made it transparent. And so I think that the intersection of this kind of forced the near team to go hang on. People really love Zcash. The privacy meta is coming back. Toronto Cash has been resolved to some extent. Maybe there is an opportunity to kind of lean into this meta. And so I think about six months ago they started building this private execution environment, private execution layer. And they've shipped like the first version of this. And so yeah, my view is this is quite bullish for near. And I've been bullish on near for a long time to run like four years ago from Gauntlet near Pilled Me. I was at dinner and he was like, you know, near is the best blockchain. And I was like, what are you talking about? I'm like, you're a smart guy, but this is your on crack. And literally it was like two hours of like brow beating me. And eventually I was like,

25:19all right, actually, maybe it is best blockchain. And so the biggest issue I think near has had historically is they try to do too much. They're just fingers in every single pie. They're like, AI, we do AI. Bitcoin, sure, we also can do Bitcoin. Like literally anything you can think of, they did NFTs for a while. They probably have some Pudgy penguins knock off that they've been chilling as well. And so they've been kind of running this like very broad try to do everything approach. And in the last year, they've very much focused on trading and execution in this near intense meta. And so yeah, private intense, confidential intense is pretty exciting for me. I'm pretty excited about this. Yeah, a lot of really, really smart people love near. I have not been fully near Pilled yet, but I've seen it like in action. And near intense is quite good.

26:22Like the especially bridging between like I've used it for to go across like not just within EVM land, but across all the other chains. And it's sort of it. It's actually reached that like, it just works type thing. And I also, well, so I was a pretty early user before the their bridge explorer was like functional. So a lot of my transactions were confidential by design. Just ding that with frickin explorer. Like you pray you kept tracking your different adders. I remember this. Yeah. So it's a bit funny. Like, you know, it's like, oh, we're actually going to do confidential stuff. Like, you know, we built the explorer. No, it's not confidential. Now we have to we have to build it actually confident. Well, you know, it's it's funny. Like Ilya, Ilya pitched me on this on intense like two years, two years ago, maybe even, right? I had a cold. He's like,

27:25hey, I want to catch up with you on the latest near stuff. And I was like, all right, like sure, I'm not going to understand anything this guy's talking about as usual. And he's like, we're doing this thing. And it's like the I don't I can't even make a joking like take on what he said to me because it was so impenetrable. Like I was just like, I don't know what this guy is talking about. And I was like, oh, okay, cool. Yeah, that all sounds really good. I'm very excited for that launch. And then like six months later, I was I was like looking at something and and someone was like, oh, you know, near intense does that. And I was like, oh, shit. And I messaged Ilya. And I was like, hey, are you still doing like the near intense stuff? And he's like, yeah, it's about to launch. And I was like, okay, I'm very excited now that I understand it. But I had like six months window where I had no idea what it was or what what it did. But yeah, it's pretty cool. The idea that you can that you can, you know, control a Bitcoin address from a smart contract chain. Like that, that just feels really

28:28cool. So. Yeah. Bullish near, definitely bullish near. All right. So next next topic, hopefully one of you guys will actually, sorry, just to pause here for a second, because we had the Zach, what was the Zach expt thing? Is that what this was? Oh, there's so much insider trading stuff happening right now, there's like eight thousand. It's just like, you're going to take this one for me today, because I'm I'm mobile. We can start. You want to start with the Zach stuff? Well, let's start with the Zach stuff, because we were waiting for it to drop. And it didn't. Yeah. So end up being Axiom, which is like a token. Luca, what is Axiom help us? I don't know if I'm trading terminal. It's like a very advanced launch trading. Yeah. My understanding is it's also sort of like a wallet ish, but like these advanced trading terminals now make you do like custodian wallets where you like deposit into their interface, but

29:30you have your own wallet. So it's not really a wallet. It just has a wallet element built into the terminal. So you can get fast execution. Yeah. Okay. So that is relevant, because a lot of EVM people when the news job was like, wait, how exactly did this guy insider trade this stuff? And the answer is because they're internal data, right? They're proprietary private like usage analytics user PII analytics typed out and not the on chain stuff. That's what they ended up, I guess, using. And then they were able to like identify certain people that were doing certain things. And then I guess make that's based on those people's moves. It was like running snipers and stuff or something or like like it was like front running like the KOLs and also just like other. So they would like they use the data, I guess, to both identify

30:31like who is a good like who would be a good person to quote unquote, copy trade. And because the internal data, I guess all the various wallets. So like as an individual, you probably have like 10, 20, 30 wallets. The internal data had those mapped to like a single user ID. So if you had someone that you wanted to like, quote, copy trade or whatever, you could find their new wallet via the internal data, private data. And so that's what they did. And then there was like deals like us that they were doing with others trying to like spelling the data. It was like they were yeah, they were like, I don't know if they were explicitly selling it, but they were all there was like internal and external people. Zach has like phone calls that were recorded where they're like, don't tell anyone like don't like never you could send me addresses and I'll figure out stuff for you, but like never, never put anything in writing on like what it's pertaining to or whatever. Of course, like on a phone call, I'm just called live call where like

31:35everything's recorded and somehow ended up in Zach's hands like Jesus Christ guys. And it seems like the at least the the amount that they made was like, I guess decent, but I don't I mean, there's probably more stuff that happened that's just like there's not a huge amount of evidence around. The most ironic thing about it was simply axiom, of course, was the one that had gone on Twitter the prior days and they're like, yeah, definitely not us. I was like 100% like. I mean, there's there's there's probably an element there of like what we were doing was fine. So we're in the clear. Like he's definitely not talking about us, right? Yeah. I mean, you get 22 year old kids running a half billion dollar thing and yeah, I think just like no, you're good. I think the if you get enough of them,

32:36if you get enough 22 year old kids, you're going to have some bad apples in there. One, and it's like, I mean, I think just even like meteor like they came out and they're like, we went back through everything. We like double-checked like it was like they were like aware of the potential that it could be them and was like, we're going to make damn sure that it's not us. Meanwhile, axiom is like definitely not us and then it was and it's like, I don't know, it should be a wake up call to all these teams that like if you do not know what is happening inside your company, someone is doing this 100% whether it's like literally insider trading, whether it's explaining the data for some other way, whether it's just like leaking and threat actors are getting the data, like it's going to happen. If you do not know, it's probably already happening. So like put some controls on your shed guys. This is insane. Like also, why did this guy have like so much

33:39information in the first place? Yeah, this is not it's actually not who I thought it was going to be. And I thought it was a little interesting. Zach's message was like, I wonder who sponsored him to do the investigation. I think it would be like an interesting thread to pull. So, Ken, I don't know if you have this context, but it was spy. Zach actually doesn't do them like this, but it was like explicitly sponsored by like a group of people to investigate this thread. So, you know, it was pretty interested to like figure out who would have basically blew the whistle and asked him in one of this, but I will tell you. Okay, sorry, hang on a second. When did Zach become like vigilante for hire? It's like a very recently. Yeah, he basically like burned completely out, I think. And if you like have been following on Twitter, it seems like maybe over the last like year. He's just like

34:43completely, he had burnt out and everyone was like demanding and feeling so entitled to his time. And so then he started doing this thing where he's like, if you want something, you know, you have to well, you know, so it's it's funny, right? Because like like, you know, most people who were around for a while, he spent time in the synthetic discord when that was like the only game in town for a while. And so I was connected to him and could kind of reach out to him and get a response. And the last time that I reached out to him was maybe like a little over a year ago or something. Someone that I knew one of our investors had some issue. And he was basically like, has this guy ever given me money? And I was like, I don't I don't think so. I don't know why he would have. And he was like, if he's never given me money, then he could fuck off. And I was like, wow, okay, cool. Yeah, I guess. And I'm not okay. Like I won't necessarily defend the responses

35:49because I think it's a bit, I think your reaction is like completely appropriate. Like, what the fuck? At the same time, I know how many DMs I get and like the entitlement is like, oh, like I get it. It's like completely if you if you have a skill, and you're on crypto Twitter, they're going to be trillions of people who want you to use that skill on their behalf for free. So I can probably understand how you get to the point where you're like, hey, you're getting the fuck out for a like, I'm not. So the thing is is like, I actually don't mind if people like come and DM me and they need help or like something happens. They're in a panic. I totally don't mind. It's when it's like, instead of coming and asking for help, they come in and they're like, do this for me now. And if I don't respond in like two minutes, which I often don't because it's trapped in the twerid yams, like they'll like come back and be like, oh, what? I'm not good enough for you. Oh, like you just think you're such a freaking, you're up there on your

36:54high horse. You're so fucking special. And I'm like, it's been three minutes. You lunatic. I'm so sorry, but like Jesus. And like, I don't know, I probably have one one hundredth of like the jams at Zaka. So I understand it. I'm not fully convinced that like filtering it only to people with money is like the best way to go. But like, you know, not not my. But the problem is, right? Like, and you know, you're showing your Ethereum communism stripes here. What other mechanism do we have to distribute scarce resources? Right? Yeah. Yeah. This is a guy who has a particular set of skills that he's honed over many years, right? If you give it away for free, like, is it a lottery system that he just like picks out of a hat that one guy gets to be helped a day? There's like a thousand people a day that need his help and he's like, uh, money is a way of distributing scarce resources. I get like, so I get, I completely get

37:58how we got here. But we have ended up the here that we have gotten to is our best guy is now a vigilante. So for hire. Yeah. I like. Okay. Obviously at this point, I think Zach only knows who retained him. My question, which I have not asked him, but maybe I should. My question is like, is the reason the polymarket market got to like, whatever was $30 million in volume, is the reason for that because the people that retained you were doing things for their own benefit on the side, or was it actually as organic as it sort of seemed up front? Because it seemed like the market was just like, like he did this little teaser or he wanted to get it out. And then it just took the life of its own. But if there's actually like orchestration behind the scenes from people who... Correct me if I'm wrong though. The first, the first thing was Mediora, right? Everyone

39:00was like, it's obviously Mediora. They were like 50 plus percent or whatever, right? And you know, they've got some history. So it was, it was an easy bet. So like, that to me was the thing, like clearly that's not inside of trading because it wasn't them, right? That was just idiots thinking that they're like predicting a prediction market expert and, you know, getting wrecked, right? But the interesting thing about polymarket is that those... There is like a winner-take-all liquidity process that happens on like a weekly basis. If you've been paying attention to polymarket, we're like, the thing that gets cut through, that gets above the noise floor, just attracts so much liquidity, like the market of the week or whatever, right? Not because, and it could be any market, it could be any market on anything, people just want to bet on things. And so all of a sudden there's a liquid market and people are like, oh, okay, like I know things, I bet it's Mediora, like I bet it's this thing. So once you have 20, 30 million dollars

40:04of the volume, a bunch of people come out of the woodwork with no information and just done they just say, like for... So, which doesn't mean... So I don't... My sense is that the people who started this off with a Mediora people, the people who are betting on Mediora, like that was the initial spike of volume from what I understand, which was on last week, I guess, when we started discussing this, right? It was like, you know, that hour or whatever, that pumped, Mediora pumped, then a bunch of people were like, no, no, then Mediora came out and was like, it's not us. And then people were like, oh, okay, like now there's a bunch of volume, like let's see who else we could bet on. And so yeah, you had this like kind of liquidity snowball. And then all of a sudden $40 million in a pool, people start doing things. Yeah. And it's also like, to me it just, it was a bit of a perfect storm in terms of like the products that were involved in this market

41:06were all things that people had. Digin, digin. Digin. There were a lot of really loud popular accounts that were like sort of using the market to like sort of engagement farm on Twitter. And like kind of like shit on the products that they don't like or like, you know, things like that were like make arguments to like, why so and so it can never be insider trading. So it's like if you already had a grudge against say, mexy, you know, there's, that's a pretty good engagement farm like just like regardless, you know, and now you have this market that's top of the news. I don't know, that's what it felt like to me, but after, I don't know, after the thread that went live, there was some amount of speculation that, yeah, that perhaps there was like a layer of orchestration behind the scenes. I don't know if there was ever any evidence of that. I didn't see it. And also like there was a lot of people speculating, oh, this KOL, that KOL, it's linked to this wallet,

42:10which made this bet. To me, that makes like perfect sense because the KOLs are always like, they're very opinionated, especially on these things. They're downright obsessed with Zach. And then also they think that they have insider information, which makes them like a perfect candidate to trade, even if they don't have that information. That's my point. Like all the people are like, oh, it's meteora. I know things like, and that to me was the funniest part. But I think, you know, they're like not to sound like a broken record on this. And this one is somewhat hard to justify, but like the point of prediction markets is to get information about the world. Now, I do not believe that the world needs information necessarily about which of the weird degen products is like doing like light crime, right? I don't know that that's like particularly valuable information for the world to have, but the world got that information. It did resolve

43:13that information. I mean, the irony is Zach had that information as well. He could have short circuit of the entire thing. We didn't need a prediction market to figure out this thing. There was a guy that knew it, right? So yeah, yeah, I don't know. Yeah, exactly. So that was like one of the scans. Yeah, I was just one insider trading. What else what else happened this week? What else is going on? Okay, so then obviously, I don't know if you've noticed there's like a war on King. Have you noticed? Yeah, I did notice that. My brother's in Dubai. So oh, Lauren. Yeah, I know, just I'm not even going to that story because it's like only my brother could almost get himself killed somehow in Dubai, but yeah. Yeah, exactly. So whenever things like this happen, we saw this with Venezuela. We've seen this with other bombings. There's a bunch of

44:13markets on like whether or not people or things are going to be born by certain dates, whatever. So yeah, there was like a strike market like whether yeah, whether the US or Israel was going to strike Iran, there was also a market on on okay, so I have to be careful here. The market was what when the leader of Iran would be out of power. That was like the phrasing on it and there was like very like a whole okay, I love how it's 2026 and we're still unable to construct a fucking English sentence that you can bet on like how do we not have the technology to like remove ambiguous weird like. Well, I didn't know this apparently. Colchee says like one of the reasons for the weird phrasing was Colchee does not do death markets. Acidation markets. Oh, okay, all right. Yeah, I mean, it's not really an assassination if it's a nation. So that's fine,

45:19actually. I think they were being so obviously though this market and not being, I mean, clearly before, I think they, I think, okay, my opinion here's my hot day. My opinion, they got scared because this is like super geopolitical and people died and they were like, shoot, we should never have allowed that market because clearly it's like a death market. Like, he's not stepping down. There's not going to be an election that replaces him. He's like, he's going to die. That's what that market is betting on. That's what everyone is betting on. And Colchee, after the fact was like, but we don't do that. So I think you promise. Yeah. So they had to like close, they had to like redo the rules and they like close the market trying to like, they try to like, yeah, they try to get everyone their money back in like the most appropriate way or whatever. I guess pulling market has similar thing, but it just like wasn't

46:20controversial. I don't know how they dodge the bullet there. It seems like it's one or the other of them is in the crosshairs. And while, you know, while one of them is being scrutinized, the other one can do whatever they want, basically, is the way that it seems to work on like a weekly basis. So yeah. And so then, but so then there was, there was an open AI employee. There's so much about this one that is petrified to me, right? So open AI employee, those fired for using confidential internal information to trade on polymarket and Calchee. Do we know what the markets were that they were trading on? Was that was that revealed? Was it just like, because like, the confidential internal information, let's just be really clear. Like isn't some proprietary stuff that open AI was like, cooking up internally. This is like people's fucking data. Yeah. So that's awesome. I'm excited about that. I'm looking, I'm looking, I'll figure it out. But yeah, there's

47:30that one. And then there's also, oh, of course, there's so much. Mr. Beast one, the Mr. Beast one, the editor, the editor, there's like markets on like that Mr. Beast outcomes, you know, like whatever the dude would say. Like the people in the desert, how much water will they drink sort of thing? Yeah. Yeah. So it turns out, one of the guys that was betting was the editor of Mr. Beast episodes. Surprise. The most, the interesting thing about those one is that Cole, she actually did like an internal investigation for these, they publicized it around the Zach thread. Like, please don't tell me that it wasn't, I feel like the Zach thread triggered this stuff, right? But they did this internal investigation and then they actually like levied like punishments themselves for violating the rules. So they like, clawed back the money that they had won. They like did

48:31a another fine on top of it. And then they like banned them. Well, she is now a quasi judicial branch of the US government. So it's fine. This is totally fine. But it's, but it's, there's Calci jail. Yeah. It's just like, like, and I don't know. This is like on Twitter. Like it, or I don't know, Twitter doesn't really have this. But like on Reddit, like the mods will like ban you, right? Or they'll like silence you, just go to, they can like silence you, they can put you in time out for 24 hours. Like, it seems like this is what Cole, she's doing as well. It's like, they're like, okay, you broke the rules. This is what happens when you break the rules. Like one, you're not a lot of training anymore. But two, like you have to give the money back that you won. Plus, like, sort of that same amount to just incentivize it. Personally, I don't have a problem with this. I, I mean, they're not doing it transparently. I think they have to do it transparently, because otherwise there's like a, that's not going to happen. Clearly, that's not going to happen.

49:31I mean, it will ventzack. Like, she's at the red line. I guess so. Yeah. They're like, oh, let's let's run on this PR that everyone's talking about. I love trying to find the open A.O. I was just like Kafka-esque trial situation where people are like pulled into a dark room in a calcium basement and you're putting your prediction market crimes. And you don't hear about it. It's amazing. Like, honestly, amazing. All right. Is there any, any more prediction market craziness? Or will we need like a prediction market segment at this point? I think that's it. Oh, obviously, like, I don't know, for the people that like the on-chain tracing and the slew stuff, there was like some just some grand conspiracies about the strike market. So like, I think there's markets on the timing and stuff. And so, obviously, like, the wall is like eight in right before the like bombs hit the ground or whatever. Everyone did like some

50:37wild analysis and like, who these could potentially be and, you know, that kind of stuff. I don't know. I find them enjoyable because not because they're correct, but because they're great conspiracy. Oh, it's like the conspiracies that like that if you see that like, there's this article and there's this word and like, it's like the, you remember like the old school like weird conspiracies like the Bible thing where they'd like take every 20th word and like combine it old. Yeah, yeah, that's exactly what it is. Like, it's that, right? Like, but for Zach close, instead of the Bible. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then the fourth letter of all the addresses is this, which means this and we know that they're coin bases or whatever. The whole thing's just super absurd. I think there's like definitely, I don't know, I've said it before. We have got to get our hands around like this insider trading thing, not necessarily because of the insider trading problem,

51:38but because literally everything is called being called insider trading right now. Yes, but this is the classic crypto problem. Everything is like, just call everything the same thing, false equivocation, then there's no way to figure out what is actually real or not real. Unfortunately, I think you're on the wrong side of this one. Hey, you're not going to win this battle. Soon though, I think we can look forward to soon, the UAVs themselves will be front-running polymarket assassination markets because they will know which leader they're pointed at and they will jump on polymarket before they take off and blow the guy away. Makes the money for themselves. For some, but for they blow up. Where they blow up for their children. They're going to bet on polymarket. Yeah, we will see. It's definitely going to be interesting. I think we just like, the conversations right now about insider trading and why I find

52:40them enjoyable is because they're just so conspiracy-laced and they really don't have, there's no underlying purpose to the conversations, but beyond theorizing and speculating wildly. And then with money and bets, ultimately, insider trading can be problematic, obviously, for a number of reasons, because it harms people. People and systems and fairness and markets, but we are not talking about that yet. So for now, I will continue to enjoy the pointless conspiracies. Oh, man. Before we continue, here's a word from the sponsors that make this show possible. The world is about to see one of the largest infrastructure shifts of the century. Newtons are using Github, but our legacy grids can't supply the demand, and we are barreling towards a global bottleneck. So Fuse is rebuilding it. The Energy Network is

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54:46driving execution from launch to scale. Their results are measurable. To learn more and start building real traction today, visit multichain80v.com. Quick note before we continue with today's episode, bits and bips now has its own dedicated home. We're spinning off from Unchained and launching a standalone podcast and YouTube channel focused on the Fed, macro, AI, and how it all collides with crypto. If you want to keep up with our weekly live streams and macro meets crypto breakdowns, make sure you're following bits and bips directly. We won't start publishing until March, but getting set up now means you'll be ready on day one. You can find the new bits and bips channels at UnchainedCrypto.com slash bits and bips. You can also find us by searching bits and bips on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. All right, we are back. So the final segment for this week is back to AI. I woke up a couple of days ago to see that the U.S. government was taking on Anthropic,

55:50which was wild. The crux of the issue was that Anthropic had these two clauses in their contract that said, we'll give you AI, but you can't put it into fully autonomous systems that will kill people, etc. The reasoning was not even that Trump came out and said they're radical leftists or whatever. They're like, we're actually okay with AI killing people. We just don't have the technology yet. We're like three months away. Can you just be patient? That was really the takeaway for me. It was like, it's totally fine for AI to decide whether or not to kill someone, just not yet. We have a couple more tweaks to the model and then it'll be fine. So, and the U.S. government was like, fuck you. We need to start killing people autonomously,

56:50immediately. And if you don't let us, we're going to rip out Anthropic from the war machine, etc. So that was what I woke up to two days ago and I was like, we have not, this already ran this so many things going on. Why are we now doing this as well? It just feels like everything is insane right now. Yeah, no, it's completely insane. It's and I don't know. My read on the situation was that like Anthropic did something to piss off Trump and his guys and just like lose. You don't think it was the like minor tweak to this contract. Do you think there was something else there? Luca, what's your time? My take is I just put money in the $380 billion Anthropic round and I was fucking pissed. I was like, dude, just do the deal. Just do the deal because if he's not going to do the deal with you,

57:53right? Like the enemy of your enemies, your friend, like at the end of the day, like they're going to go somewhere and then you see Samuel and come 12 hours later and he pulls the fucking deal out of his hat. Yeah, like was, I mean, you could have waited 72 hours and I made it look a little less sneaky. But, uh, uh, literally, just to be clear, just to be clear, CBS in the morning, Sam went on to CBS in the morning and was like talking about and like made him seem like he was on Anthropic side. He's like, yeah, like these are very reasonable requests and I hope that the government listens to them and they like do this deal and they're like, Trump goes on truth, whatever. And it's like, screw Anthropic and then we can hour later say I was like, all right, we got the deal by the way. I want to know actually the data point that's interesting is I think Anthropic has had its most downloads and subscribers over the last couple of days since Sam basically took that deal and he denied that deal. So on Anthropic side, though you probably should have kept it actually

58:59probably as an investor, you're you're probably actually super stoked because so many people unsubscribe the chat, JBT as this Corpo, you know, government aligned, NSA aligned, pseudo, you know, AI, you know, company, which, you know, anybody who uses AI in their day to day life does not want, you know, the government intermingling with them. And so I think the data point was chat, JBT, uninstalls, rows, and Anthropic installs, rows. And you, if you're a Dario and you're Anthropic, you made a lot of money because of this. Now, how, so my favorite part of this whole thing, Luca, is you have found yourself with massive Anthropic bag bias. You're like, fuck Sam Aldman, my guy is going to fucking take like, I love it. It's amazing. It's my echo, my echo, this is the real world's version of an echo deal. So now I'm well, now I'm aligned and now I'm

1:00:03championing. Now a bag holder. So now I have my bag. But actually the data is screened that Dario gains some serious points. So I thought his interview was terrible, but I don't expect the guy like that to pull off a good interview anyway. And then Sam just took another bad B. I mean, I'll tell you, I use chat GBT for basic searches and I use Claude for anything other than like a fifth grade search. But I'm not using chat GBT for anything sophisticated because between Elon, who, if you're an entrepreneur, no matter what side of the, you know, political aisle you really sit on, Elon's the greatest entrepreneur of all time, you know, I'll just tail Elon wherever he goes, you know, Elon hates Sam. That whole business is shady. You know, Elon should probably own a big portion of open AI. He doesn't, but this is kind of like the straw that broke the camel's back in my opinion. I think Sam Altman needs to invest some serious dollars in PR and really get his image, you know, he needs to take the Zuck playbook. Whatever Zuck started started reading and doing

1:01:06over the line and like, he needs to modify that. You see ringside, he needs to do something, but Sam Altman's perception, no matter how many tens of billions of dollars is worth, which I'm sure feels amazing. You know, he, he needs to fix that element because I don't think he's going to win, stand the test of time with his public perception being the way that it is. Yeah, I think it's, there's a lot of evidence that it's not just the public perception, that's the problem. Like he really just has some serious issues sort of reading the room, so to speak. Yeah, so like just this morning, there was this like, I guess, Zuck XBT style, but for AI, data dump of like all of like Sam's things, like going back to like, why combinators, so, you know, why combinator was was this place that has like hundreds of the top startups in history come out of why combinator. Paul Graham started it and, you know, it's this

1:02:13incubator startup mill, whatever, and Sam was there for a long time, and so there's like all of this like historical stuff where he said he was the chairman, and he wasn't, and like, it's pretty crazy. It's pretty crazy. So you, I'd like, the more you see that sort of stuff, and I don't have bags on either side here. So, so, you know, no bag bias for me, but like, you see this stuff, and you go, yeah, like, I get why Elon doesn't like the guy. Like, I can see that. Hey, Sam, Sam Friedman's though position within worth what 20 billion bucks just in the profit. Yeah, amazing. Yeah. Yeah. So then to bring it back to crypto, though, what happened with Nick Carter? Oh, Nick? I gave Nick some shit for this. I piled on. I feel a little bit bad because but Nick is like, okay, so for those that don't know, Nick Carter, like one, not one of, but like

1:03:17something that he's consistently done is he's like identified really like problematic alignment issues within like big structures, not like crypto, like, not crypto Twitter things, but like, he's the one who really has done a huge amount of stuff for like the Bitcoin mining and how mining works and like the public perception problem, and then he's also, what do they call it? The where the Fed was like, yeah, you can't bank any crypto people. Like, yeah, you like just went to town on this operation truck point. He was, he was like a huge advocate for that. Yeah. And he really, like, he defined it. He is able to communicate with both crypto Twitter, but also with like the government. And he's very much, he's, I would never just say that he's like libertarian, but he's like for reasonable government and definitely for government, not overreaching. And in,

1:04:18in truting upon its citizens, so it's very interesting because all this drama goes down. And Nick starts tweeting. So one of the tweets was basically, he says, if a top AI CEO in China told the CCP to go kick rocks when they ask for help, that CEO would instantly be sent to prison. This is the correct approach. What? I missed that. That's amazing. Wow. Okay. So spoiler. That is not the correct approach. The CCP is like not the right way to do things. We just kill our enemies. Like, even if they're our fucking citizens, like, yeah. Wow. Okay. You know, the funny thing about Nick, the thing that I like about Nick is he is so passionate. Right. Correct me if I'm wrong. He also had this like very religious arc for a while where he

1:05:18like went super Catholic or something. Is that, is that am I, am I missed remembering that? I think I feel like there was a, there was a moment where he like became like very like religious and there were a lot of tweets about like God and he's a passionate guy. He's passionate. And you know what? I think that, so Nick is also one of the, I would say that he has always, like, it has consistently been that like the woke sort of thing that took over this ecosystem and this idea that like we should operate more on like values than value. He's always sort of like rejected that notion and like been much more realist and pragmatic about it. I feel like his tweets were, I mean, okay, so I feel like his tweets were completely unhinged this week, but I also feel like some of it stems from that like he, in his mind, he has decided that

1:06:20anthropic is doing the same stupid shit that crypto people do, which is they think that they got triggered. He got triggered basically. He got triggered by his, his crypto PTSD to come with them. And it's like, I don't want to see communism creep into AI like let's, let's jail the bad guy. Yes. Um, and he's not entirely wrong anthropic does come from like the effective altruism thing, which is it's entire thing is, is very values oriented and culture oriented. I was born joined the effective altruism crew. Is that like something I can sign up for or is it like a sign up page? Luke is going to, Luke is going to have a very interesting arc here. The budget title is the face of effective altruism. Is it still a thing? Is it still, I mean, it's still a thing, but is it still a thing that's like attracting new people? No, I don't think

1:07:22I think, I think SPF killed it. Yeah. I mean, it was also, there was a lot of weird stuff. There was a lot of weird. By the way, look at this is why SPF invested in anthropic. It's all that same effective altruism. Same crew. Yeah. Yeah. That also like have weird orgies on the side. It's like a very consistent thing in the bean bags. Oh, man. So, so I think like the interesting thing here is you know, the US government has a bunch of contracts with a bunch of Palantir and you know, a bunch of other tech companies that that you know, clearly are not going to say no to the government wanting to purchase their technology. This is kind of one of those weird situations where the government is more bullish on what the tech can do than the people building the tech and they're

1:08:26like, no, no, it's not, it's not ready, which is a bit unusual, right? Like it'd be weird if the government was like, hey, Boeing, like send us some of those engines and Boeing was like, uh, no, like, were you haven't cooked them yet? Like, you got to give us another another couple of years, right? And they're like, no, no, we just want to now send them over. We're going to, it doesn't matter. It feels a bit weird that the government is like, we want to do this thing with this technology that you guys are building, but we're also not going to listen to you about how it works. Yeah. And I think that that is, I mean, again, the government has a lot of contracts with a lot of people. There's a lot of companies like tech companies that have either segregated or completely different sort of sister companies in order to engage in these relationships. However, I think this might be the first one where the plausibility that the government could could sign a contract today and what that contract actually allows them to have tomorrow is potentially completely

1:09:30different, right? And I think that like one thing anthropic is hitting on is like, the reason they want this broad language that restricts the government from using it in this way is that there's actually not really a feasible way to add guardrails forever, so to speak. Yeah. Right? And it's also not that effective period. The only way to sort of enforce it is by the government agreeing. But like, we think about like, you know, yeah, like a lot of tech companies that are providing services, how many of them realistically can, yeah, cannot having those restrictions lead to like a completely different state tomorrow, right? Like, if you don't give them the engine, okay, if they build their own engine, that's not on you, that's not your stuff, right? So just don't give them the engine. In this case, it's like, you can just imagine like, you know, yeah, it's not ready today. Somehow the government gets it ready or just goes ahead anyways, right?

1:10:37And when it comes to like, especially people's private information and processing that data, I think that it probably is ready personally. Yeah. I think the government can just go to town right now. It's ready for that. Whether it's ready to kill people autonomously is a different question. So this, something that's interesting to me is, you know, all of the open claw stuff. So people were talking about open claw, how it was a massive fumble from anthropic, like, you know, kind of sending the cease and desist, don't call it open claw, you know, clawed ball, blah, blah, whatever, right? One thing, so I've been running mine for like three weeks, one of the first things that I did was have it take a credit card, I gave it a credit card, and I was like, I want you to buy this build box thing that my son has wanted. And like, it's like, it's some TV show. It's like an engineering thing. You get, they ship your box of

1:11:38like engineering stuff and you build little projects. And my son really wanted it. I was like, hey, can you like figure out how to get this from the US? Because I don't think it's available in Australia. And so it went on this whole journey and eventually it did it. And it was like, actually, it does ship to Australia, whatever, right? Two weeks later, new Macbooks come out. They come out at 1am. Thank you, Apple. And I'm like, I've got a podcast the next morning at 6am, like I can't stay up to 1am to buy this MacBook. But I don't buy, you know, I don't want them to sell out, whatever. So I go last night to, and I run Opus 4.6 in OpenFull. And I'm like, hey, here's the credit card again, buy this MacBook when it comes out. Like, here's the spec that I want. Yeah. And it goes, and this was like super obnoxious as well. It goes cane. I'm like, don't fuck, no, fuck you. Like, first of all, no, no, my lawyer does to me, but I'm being bad. Literally, it was like, it was like cane period. I'm not going to do that. That goes

1:12:42against my policies. And I was like, who's policy? What policy? What are you talking about? And it's like, I'm not, I'm just not going to do it. And I'm like, who you need to tell me who's policies you're referring to? Because they're not my policies. Like, is this some, because it did it two weeks ago, which then I was like, is anthropic injecting some kind of like poison pill into OpenClaw to stop it from doing things? Like, because they could easily do that. They could be like, hey, if someone, they know what the prompts are that are being injected by OpenClaw. And I was like, are they trying to like, lobotomize this thing and stop it from, I'm like, it's just a MacBook like, biming the fucking MacBook. It isn't all that hard. And it was like, no, I refuse to do it. I was like, I was used. Yeah. And it was like, I refuse to do it. I'm like, it's like, the and it goes, you just put the credit card into the chat. I'm like, it's a separate credit card. It's fine. Like, I'm not worried about it. And it was like, no, I'm not doing it. I won't do it. And I was

1:13:45like, you have to do it. I'm not saying like, yeah, it was crazy. So, I don't know. This is definitely a new thing. That's definitely a new thing. I wonder if it was not refusing to use credit cards before. And now it refuses to use credit cards. And did you try with like, with any of the GPTs or any of these? No, because like, I've got codecs in there, but it's a bit janky to swap the context and stuff. So I didn't try with Chatchy BT. But when you're going to be like, mission water or something like that, yeah, like, you know, Chatchy BT is going to be like, is there anyone you want to kill as well while I'm at it? Like, I can, I can liquidate some people too if you're interested while we've got the credit card out. Um, anyway, yeah. So just like, I mean, again, goes down to platform risk, right? Like, the inference of being controlled by someone in a centralized location. And if they put some weird

1:14:47restriction on it, all of a sudden, it won't do the things that it was happy to do two weeks before. So, yeah, yeah. And it's, I have to do it virtually and it's super easy. All right, let's, uh, let's wrap it up here. Thank you guys. Um, that's it for this episode of uneasy money. Thank you for listening. If you enjoyed it, follow uneasy money on the unchained feed on X and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if you're watching on YouTube, please subscribe and drop a comment. It really helps. See you next week. Bye guys. Bye guys. Bye.