
About this episode
New national polling shows a dramatic shift in voter sentiment toward Donald Trump, including a stunning eight point redo margin and approval ratings in the mid 30s.
In this episode, we break down the NBC News SurveyMonkey redo poll showing Kamala Harris leading Trump by eight points among voters asked how they would vote if the 2024 election were held again. We also examine Reuters Ipsos and AP NORC data placing Trump’s overall approval at 36 to 38 percent, including a sharp drop on immigration. Among key 2024 constituencies like men and Latino voters, cracks are beginning to show.
We discuss the emerging enthusiasm gap heading into the midterms, with 89 percent of Harris voters saying they plan to vote Democratic compared to 83 percent of Trump voters sticking with Republicans. That gap could matter in a close congressional fight. We also talk about real world voter frustration, from healthcare premium spikes to job insecurity and the broader economic squeeze many Americans are feeling.
If approval remains this low into November, history suggests serious danger for the president’s party. But polling momentum only matters if people show up.
Watch the full episode and decide for yourself what these numbers really mean for 2026 and beyond.
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00:00 Trump Polls and Redo Shock
Introduction and setup of new polling data showing a dramatic shift.
00:00:36 Eight Point Redo Margin Explained
NBC News SurveyMonkey poll shows Harris leading by eight in a redo scenario.
00:02:00 Enthusiasm Gap Emerging
89% of Harris voters vs 83% of Trump voters planning to vote in midterms.
00:02:33 Immigration Approval Drops
Reuters Ipsos data shows immigration approval falling to 38%.
00:03:32 Turnout Warning and Overconfidence Risk
Discussion of 2024 turnout failure and why momentum alone is not enough.
00:04:18 Historic 36% Approval Territory
AP NORC poll places Trump at 36%, lowest midterm approval territory in decades.
00:05:00 Economic and Healthcare Pressure
Personal impact of rising healthcare premiums and economic frustration.
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The Dangerous Ones — Trump Polls CRASH as Voters RECONSIDER. Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
But even when you hear those numbers, you go, great, that's fantastic. Now we got to pile on. You know. Yeah. Right? Pile on. Pile on. Pile on. Pile on. Pile on. We don't want a victory. We want a massacre. Yeah. We got Trump whole numbers. Crash. Hey, guys. Hey, guys. Ah. Yeah. You want to hear some new news that isn't about people f***ing. Yeah. Oh, my God. So new polling suggests that there is some real political trouble for Donald Trump. We got a video. Let's play that and then we'll get into the discussion. What are we talking about here? Well, let's just take a look here. OK. Choice for 2024 presidential election. The actual was Donald Trump winning by about a point and a half at rounds to a point. But take a look here in a poll redo between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. In April of 2025, it was within the margin of error, right? Kamala Harris by point. But look at where we are now, according to an NBC News survey monkey poll.
Kamala Harris wins in a redo asking folks, essentially, if you could redo the 2024 election, how would you vote? Do you wins it by get this? Eight points. A massive shift from what we saw back in November of 2024 when Donald Trump won by a point. And I will note that this sample was weighted to the 2024 result in which Donald Trump won by a point. But yet Kamala Harris in this reweight, it's in this weighted sample. Get this. She wins by eight amongst the sample that voted for Trump by one. Wow. OK. So there's more. That's not it. That's just the beginning. Go. Hey. Good news, Nick over here. OK. As CNN's Harry Enten said in that video, Kamala Harris now leads him in a redo poll by eight points, which Enten called a massive shift. There is also an emerging enthusiasm gap about 89% of 2024 Harris voters say they plan to vote Democratic in the midterms.
Hmm. The price is that low. Compared to just 83% of Trump voters who say that they will stick with Republican candidates giving Democrats early momentum in the fight for control of Congress. At the same time, a new Reuters Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval on immigration has fallen to 38%. The lowest since he returned to office. That number was near 50% shortly after he took office again. His support among men who were central to his 2024 win has slipped to 41% on immigration, while approval among women has fallen to 35%. His overall job approval is also sitting at 38% tying the lowest levels of his presidency, signaling growing vulnerability heading into the midterms. We will take you. Hey. Yeah. Oh, it's encouraging to hear men or even like dude. Yeah. Well, and it's, you know, it only takes a sliver,
you know, he only won by 1.5% or whatever it was. Yeah. So, you know, you just need some, you know, a combination of men and Latino voters, you know, peeling off and being like, what the fuck is this? Yeah. And this could be a big year for Democrats. Yeah. Good God. Good. I hope though, you know, when you hear those kinds of numbers, you go like, oh, you know, what worries me is, is, is what happened in the 2024 election where a lot of our side just didn't even turn out. Yeah. Because they're like, we're going to win. It's like, no, we lost. Yeah. You know, so we, even when you hear those numbers, you go, great, that's fantastic. Now we got to pile on. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, right. Pile on. Pile a lot. Pile a lot. We don't want a victory. We want a massacre. Yeah. Yes. And we're going to know you're on. You cannot come back to this fucking neighborhood ever again. Yeah. Exactly. And you're going to need it because, uh, with all this, uh, voter suppression. Yes.
Uh, we're going to have to overwhelm the poll. Overwhelmed the poll. Oh my God. I always got overwhelmed the poll. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I have a few other notes. Please. If you want me to share. Okay. So an AP, uh, Nork poll in early February has Trump at 36% approval. Uh, matching or beating other recent national polls that have him in the mid-30s or very low 40s. USA Today notes that if Trump stays at 36% into November, it would be the lowest presidential approval going into midterms in about seven decades. Holy shit. Which is objectively code red, uh, territory for the president's party. If we can't be a guy or, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, a movement that is, you know, it's massive corruption. Yeah. The most corruption of anything, uh, president ever, probably combined. Um, the, the ice kid knappings, uh, I was just a couple things I was jotting down as you were talking, the Epstein files, which is, uh, and then, uh, obviously, uh, the economy
is in the tank. Ah, it's in the tank. Got to care. Everybody. Uh, it right now is, it's hard to get a job. A.I. is killing, crushing a lot of jobs. Yeah. And you got a lot of calls about people losing their subsidy for their health care. Oh, you're lucky. Yeah. I mean, just what the fuck are people going to do? Yeah, I'm literally saying like, how am I going to pay? I literally just had this conversation. I'm like thinking about how am I going to pay my health insurance next month? You know what I mean? So it's all $1,800 a month increase in literally in benefits. Yeah. You know, so if you know, no increase in benefits. Right. Yeah. Just same benefits. $1,800 a month. For a month. Right. Hey, that'll work. Great. Are you tired of winning? Yeah. I'm so tired of winning. Until next time, be safe. Get into good trouble. Get into fine trouble. Get into fine trouble. And remember, we are all the dangerous ones. We love you guys. Bye. Bye guys. Bye. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
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