Thursday NHL Player Props 4/16/26 – Bets, Player Props and Predictions | The Propcast (Ep. 451)

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1:00Thursday afternoon April 16th right to PMB's for time. I'm Rose Scamaret. Sean wants to join by Rosebury together going to break down in the hockey place that we have for the final day. I'll be right to work season. Adam, how's it going with you? What's up? It's going to be just lost that under in that Nats game that was cruising until now. Uh, yeah, I saw that there were four runs that were scored via error and four runs. Yeah, but they matched four. There was an error in a while pitch. And then I saw Pittsburgh just, I think they scored eight runs combined in the fifth end. Yeah, I think they just, well, they're, they're, they're in still in the fifth. No, I'm saying, but it was zero, zero, I'm during the fifth end. And now, yeah, it was zero. Yeah, it was zero, zero, zero, going into the fifth and then this. Yeah. So there you go. But either way, once again, interesting start to the baseball slate. But Adam, we're not here to talk about baseball, final day of the hockey season. So we're back on hockey. You excited? I am. But just I thought, I guess when you and I thought about this, we didn't look at the schedule and it's kind of an underwhelming slate. It's like all the West teams. So, um,

2:03we're just fine. Just I think you and I agree that the West is a little mid. Yes, we'll see how Vegas looks for the playoffs, but they're starting to get back in the form. But what a, what a, what a mega trash division. I forgot the fact that they won the division. I think it was hilarious. Oh, yeah, the entire Pacific was a disaster the entire season, but a nice job by Vegas to get the job done there. But anything else you want to mention for hockey before getting to our place? No, I'm good. Let's jump into it. Cool. So before getting to any of our actual plays for hockey, a reminder that you can check out the NBA Gowing Podcast because the playoffs are here. Perfect times subscribe to the NBA Gowing Podcast. Check it out on YouTube, check it out on Spotify or Apple. Once again, like subscribe on YouTube with your rating and review on Spotify or Apple and a reminder as well. Check it out on the SGPN app. So moving on into the actual games that we have for the hockey slate for Thursday. Adam, what's going to be your first prop for the show? So sorry, my dog is down here too. Okay, so first one for the show. I talked

3:08about like, you know, how many of these are like loving, loving. So Troy Terry and I'm over 2.5 shots on goal minus 110. He's been on a heater. He's averaging 4.2 shots on goal on his last five games. It's like nearly double that line. And last five games, he's had been huge on volume 7.2 individual course. He scored 2.4 individual high danger score. He's on the first line. He's on the power play. Shot volume is all there. He should be able to pretty easily get through this. And Anna Heim has like, you know, they are, they're in there in the wildcard. They have third, well, they're third division. And they can move up to second with a win or regulation lost by the oiler. So they do have incentive to keep going. So let me take Troy Terry to continue to do what he's been doing with over 2.5 shots on goal minus 110. Yeah, moving on to my first play.

4:13I have nothing, nothing else like that. You're just like, yeah, he did. I mean, it's the final day of the regular season. So nobody really knows. But yeah, I like Terry. Terry has been actively. Nine shots on goal against against this. This should be a dead Nashville team, by the way. Like this team should be dead because they had us. They literally gave up. They could have gotten into the playoffs. They made a really close just to not make it at the end. Just to not make it. Well, that's going to segue though into my first play because I have a play in the same game. And it is on that dead Nashville team because I have the under on a certain player. I have Eric Halla. I got his under one and a half shots on goal at minus 130. He said, a less than two shots on goal on the end of the last 11. As you mentioned before, Nashville, I'd be dead as well. So they might roll over in this game in general. He's also had less than four shot attempts in six of his last eight games. So the volume has not really been there recently for Halla. And on top of that, he's a third line center who is not on the first line power play unit. I think as you said before, we might see an on fire. So maybe Terry does get

5:15involved, but I think Nashville's going to roll over in this game. So give me a third line center who's not on the first line power play unit to do basically nothing in this game. Give me Eric Halla. I'm going to go with his under one, half shots on goal at minus 130. Cool. Yeah. I'm going to go with, um, can we ready to go for mine? Yeah, if you want to. Cool. Fire away. Fire away. Alex Nidzilek Kovic. Nidzilek Kovic. What's that? Nidzilek Kovic. Nidzilek Kovic. Under 23 and a half saves. Um, so it's under his average. Uh, and this is, um, he's going against the jet. The jets are jets are definitely dead. Uh, like jet, like jets are out. Their season's over. He's been under this six of his last 10. Um, uh, and, you know, he obviously went over against the jets all the other times that he played them, but, uh, I like this as an under I don't really see the jets kind of generating a lot of shot quality here.

6:20Like I said, cross 33 starts. He's on, he's, uh, he's averaging 23 per game. So he would need to do exactly what he's been doing in competitive games for this to happen. He faces 30 shots of the game, uh, but it's safe percentage is also not that great. So even if stuff happens, I think it kind of gets by, um, flat. He doesn't have like a hot street conflation. Nine goals against his last three games. The teams are converting when they're able to do it, but in general, this should be a, uh, should be an easy game with the jets. I just don't like the, the jets are, uh, been banged up all year. Quite a fall from last year where they were just so hot out of the gate and, um, today ended up with the president's trophy. I can't remember. Did they last year? Yeah. Oh, let me just quickly. I think you did. When it, when it pegged did, I thought yeah, the jets. That's yeah. No, no, I'm saying I thought when it pegged did. You then had one 16. Yeah. So, and then that was the story one for most of the season. This year was how you the president's trophy and I are dead last in the lane. Well, because they got heard out of the game. They, they, they ran hot. Correct. But that was the only talking point that people

7:22had for the jets for about three months. Yeah. Anyway, I don't expect a lot of life out of this team. So give me this under 23 and a half saves. Yeah. I guess one question that I forgot to ask before we started the show was for the final day of the regular season or I guess even for the last couple of games where teams were dead. Did any advice when it comes to either fading or betting on the teams that were eliminated already. There are a couple games that matter and then I wouldn't touch the ones that don't. Okay. From a side total perspective. But I know you were experimenting. For example, you said in the gelcovitch for the under saves. That's been something that we talked about the other day too. It wasn't just this game. No, no, no, he's had it as a trend. So it's not that game. It's I don't expect an increase in volume from an already low shooting jets team when his average is what he has right now. Yeah. No, no, I get that. But I guess I was just wondering. We're going to be of course betting responsibly on the final day of the season

8:25anyway. But I guess I was wondering if you had any overall tips for people who wanted to bet the NHL in the final day of the season. Don't do it. Just like just just I mean, there's only you don't have a lot of options, man. There's only five games that are all west they're all western conference games. And most of these don't matter. Three of it. Yeah, like there are some really don't matter. So yeah, I mean, I have an angle on one that does matter, but we'll get to it. Yeah, we'll get to I love one that is well for again that actually matters. But yeah, I think the advice I would give is kind of similar to the NBA when it comes to these garbage games except of course the NBA. You see a lot of scrubs. You get more playing time and you can go for a lot more exotic stats. I mean, hockey doesn't work that way because you still have lower scoring games obviously by comparison to the NBA. So chasing random guys to get a bunch of stats is definitely not the approach for hockey. But do you think a decent portion of these eliminated teams packing in?

9:27It's not that they pack it in. It's that you're going to probably get younger guys that they're putting in there and the ice times probably going to go down from the alphas. Yeah, that makes sense. So that that's the big thing on some of this. This is and you know, it you could tell who's going for certain co-coffield had eight shots on goal the other night because he's clearly going for that goal, which we I think that's the last point I was going to make is that I feel like if you were going to go for certain players positively, it might be like NFL week 18 now where you're just looking at the incentives trying to see who's actually trying to put it on first. Yeah, and like they gave it to him, but he didn't even play the entire third period. Yeah, but the point is you have some players as Adam is mentioning like McMahon who's going for 30 goals in a season. So I'll give some personal milestones that some people are trying to go for. But besides that, I think most people just want the season and so there you go. Before we get into the other props that we have for the Thursday card reminder that we were brought to by our sponsor, which is

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11:36Welcome back everyone to the prop cast finished going through for skull props for the final dandering more season for the NHL time to move on into my second play for the show. For this one, I am going to go to a game that actually matters between the oilors and the conunds. Oilors are trying to stay in possession of the two seed in the Pacific division. So of course, winning is going to help them clinch that. They can't catch Vegas for the one that only they can still get the two in the Pacific. But either way for this one, they play Vancouver who knows been better lately. They have one three in a row. However, when no Vancouver stinks, they have the fewest points in the entire league. And I am thinking, McDavid to have a great game. McDavid, by the way, is over one and a half points in this game. Is minus 190? So they're picking McDavid to go potentially nuclear in this matchup. Instead, I'm going to pivot the special teams. I'll go with McDavid power play point at minus 110.

12:37He's had five power play points over the past six games. He's also been great against Vancouver historically. He's had at least one power play point in four was last five against Vancouver. And special teams, it's definitely a mismatch. Edmonton number one power play in the league. Same story basically every year. Vancouver second to last and penalty kill percentage. I think McDavid puts on a show once again, over one and a half points is minus 190. I believe him to score a goal in this game was like minus 135. But instead of taking that and get minus 110 for a great power play to capitalize on a very bad penalty kill. And if they score on the power play, you know that McDavid is most likely involved. So based on that, I'll go for the angle of Edmonton in an important game for seating, potentially laying it on at this bad Vancouver team. I'll go with McDavid power play point at minus 110. That's my second play for the show. Oilers also have stuff to play for because they can clinch the second two seed spot.

13:38The two seed spot. Not the two seed. It's the second spot in the division. It's second spot in the division. Yes. Yeah. Pacific two seed. Yes. Right. Yeah. Pacific two. It's such a dumb way that they do the whole thing because like they're basically this is why you get the so why you get the kings and the abs and the kings and the oilers everywhere. Yeah. I hate the divisional format now. I prefer one through eight, obviously. They overthought it. They over conversation. They overthought it over and changed something. That's the joke though. Did you see who the you see who the payments are playing in the Eastern Conference in the first round? Is that a trick question? Can I just tell me who they're playing? When the flyers. Yeah. You know, the seedings of both those teams if they win one through eight. What would they bet? It would be the seven versus the eight in the first round of the playoffs. Wild. Seven versus the eight. That's what Pittsburgh and Philly is right now in the East. But you know, divisional breakdown. You got the two versus the three in the of course metro. But yes, if it was one through eight old format, it is the seven seed versus the eight. It's just silly. Like it's just the problem I have with all of it is that it's very silly to do it within the division because you guarantee

14:42that people are going to play the division again in the second round. So like that was my whole cap on why I don't like the Minnesota wild. When everyone said, oh, they acquired Quinn Hughes because what you're basically saying is are the wild better than both the abs and the stars and you and I would absolutely say maybe they beat one of those teams. Yeah. Now you basically are automatically having to play both exactly back, which is just a death sentence. Yeah. Like it's just impossible. So, but look to your point. Yeah. That's a terrible number. Adam on the David two from that. I just bet him for MVP. I would bet him. If you're going to take, if you're trying to chase the McDavid to 50, just take his shorter MVP odds to be totally honest. He didn't put the team on his back in that way. And then in that 50 would be a nice stamp on that. I do agree with you. That's got I think the power plays the right way to do it. Vancouver's also locked into the worst record and the top odds to get the to win the gap. Well, they won for in a row, but they've still given up like

15:44they still they're locked they're locked into the worst record. They might just roll over completely in the scam. Yeah. But no, so I do agree. Powerpoint points is a really good one. We would probably do a playoff special, right? We can if you want to if we have the time. We'll figure it out. Yeah, we'll figure it out. I can tell everybody right now that there's one bet that I know that we are going to have out there that we I can give it out to shake it out to people right now. Well, we already have the Kings to lose in the first round. That was what a beautiful back seven months ago. Seven months ago, but what a bit. What a bit. Flyers to win flyers to lose the first game and win the series five to one on DK. It's a great price. I mean, if you're picking up to be a long series, which we think it probably will be, I think that definitely getting creative with the game one combo markets, probably a good approach. Yeah. So there you go. But anyway, I mean, David, well, the powerpoint point was cheaper than the other options and Vancouver's penalty kill is atrocious. So that's kind of why I ended up going with that instead of moving on into your third play. What do you like? Third play that I like is let me pull it up. Sorry,

16:49about this. Let's see. Okay. So the Kings have stuff to play for because they could avoid the ass. They're losing the first round, either way. I don't care. But that being said, Laferia has been on a heater and he's going to continue that heater plus 230 for him to have a anytime goal against Calgary. So like he's been absolutely, like I said, he's been on this heater for this as these goals and two straight games. And against Calgary, he had one about a month ago. I like it. Last five games, individual coursey of 6.2, eight high danger chances, individual high danger chances of 1.6 per game in a game that we know that the Kings need to win. Let's do it. Let's go with Alex, Laferia, anytime goal plus 230, plus 230 is a

17:52blocker. He's got a 72% power play share. Yeah, that which is an insane amount. Yes. For the record, by the way, the Kings winning this game is not actually officially safe. No, no, they need the oilers. They need the oilers to either go to regulation or they need the oilers to lose, but they still have something to play for. Well, to be clear, it's the oilers or the ducts to lose. Yes. There's currently their tide with Anaheim, but they have, they have incentive to continue to play. Yes, but it is not just Edmonton. It's also Anaheim who I bet that could lose. So just keep that in mind. But either way, moving on, I like that, as you mentioned before, I mean, the number speaks to themselves. Plus 230 for a guy scored also in back-to-back games and has got a 72% power play share against the Calgary flames. The flames we know give up a bunch of shots. They stink. They have nothing to play for. I think we're taking this, by the way. We're betting this. I know I gave it out, but like I said, oh, I'm not going to bet everything. I'm going to bet this one. I actually wasn't going to ask about that game. I know that it's a bit tricky to fully dive into

18:54the must-win game scenario, but did we want Kings minus one and a half? I felt like plus 165. Not on the road. Not on the road? I get cold. Just to ask. So moving on to my left. Because also that game is at, it's at, so okay. It's at the same time as Edmonton. It's an hour after the Anaheim game, so they can't score a ball. I don't think you wanted it. I don't think that's the thing about the score. I'd rather go team total. That's fine. Once again, I was just asking for the sake of asking, but either way, moving on to my last play, I am going to go to a game involving Utah as they are taking on St. Louis. For this one, I am going to go with Nick Schmultz. I'm going to take his over two and a half shots on goal at the 1.105. Yeah. I mean, Guy fires the puck and it's a good price. Now he's had at least three shots on goal in six of his last seven. At least three shots on goal in eight of his last ten home games. And on top of that, the volume has definitely been there for the last week or so. He's at seven plus shot attempts in four of his last five. So I like the

19:56actual spot here. I think that once again, Schmultz, the guy who we know is on the aggressive side for this team, especially when it comes to firing the puck on net. Now I do want to point out, by the way, that Utah is in the playoffs already. And they are once again, you're going to argue trying to once again, just keep everybody healthy. So we'll see if Schmultz gets some one-minute workload here. But I do think at the end of the day, the volume and the price peaks for itself at plus money. Like, if it was minus 120, it probably would pass because of potential sitting. But at plus money, I think I had to take it. So I went with Schmultz over two and a half plus one and five. Yep. Let me just, yeah. I mean, seven point two, individual accuracy of his last five. The thing is, is about these guys, it's more going to be, they're not probably, the guys are going to be laying out and probably not going to get super physical to do a lot of type of stuff. But I like it. It's also a young mammoth team. And they're at home,

21:00dude. Is there, they're, they're, they're closing it home, home finale for the wakeover. Home finale for them. Yeah. Yeah. So close money. Give me Schmultz. 66% power play share. He's also getting one point two on the power button. And the, blues are horrific about giving up shots. They've, part of what helped us with snuggie getting there on our, whoever tells us on the 50 points for snuggie, that was dead. Well, they were down like, what, four goals to Pittsburgh and then scored six straight, like the game just went off the rails. Well, he, they've, they've, uh, 15 points for that line in the last like four games. Um, I'm saying with the last game, especially, they had already given up five goals before the team fully went nuclear. Right. But what I'm saying is you and I had a guy who only played 66 games this season. We had for 50 points of plus 150 for the season. And he had, I want to say 38 with 10 games to get something like that. It was, it was clear. Like absolutely new clear. Yeah. Blues games have been pretty entertaining lately, just based on the goal volume and the high danger, chance, et cetera. So yeah,

22:01once again, give me Schmultz at home in the last game. I'm moving on to miscellaneous, either Pocky or if you want to throw in some baseball or whatever you want to talk about. I like the snuggie goal. Okay. I mean, he's been rolling. He's been rolling. And let me look on handicrafts and found us something. I can't believe we lost that under. By the way, your thoughts on the, uh, the temporary suspense of OV facing Crosby for the final time, just for him to announce two days later, he's probably coming back next season. He's coming back. I always thought I always thought he was coming back. Yeah, a 30-go season. But that was the thing is that Srow intentionally got thrown out of the face-off. So OV could take it against Crosby. And then it's like, yeah, but he's, uh, he's not actually retiring. So that didn't actually matter at all that took it. Sure. Whatever. Let's see what we got here. Well, you're pulling it up. I was looking at some like news and stuff,

23:03but OV is probably coming back next season. So there you go. I think I was coming back next season. Yeah. Well, according to him, it sounds like he's probably going to come back. So there we go. Okay, so let's look at, let's look at a couple guys that could be, so, okay, how about, do we like the, let's see, do the Rangers, I am getting, I'm getting like blown up and I need people to not do it. I'm just looking on team stats. I'm looking at this three o'clock game. So this is exclusive to the show that people are going to get exclusive content, exclusive content. Man, this team does not walk against lefties. Okay, I think maybe we do want a, so I'm looking at walks and things, but you know what, let's do a hit suppressor. Okay. So I like Parker Messick today.

24:09I did too. Yeah, sorry. I'll let you finish your point. Sorry. No, finish what you think. I was going to say my walk on the MLB show today was the Guardians. So yeah, I like the Guardians. We should bet that. I like the Guardians and I like, I like the Guardians and I like Met, I like Met Six over, over his outs. It's at 16 and a half. So there's a lot, today's a weird day because there's a lot of like, I like sides. I don't like as many props. Yeah, also a weird day because you have so many baseball day games, segwaying into hockey games that don't matter. So it's really just a weird day and there's no basketball because there's a day all the thing between the playing games yesterday and Friday. You know what? I don't even like, so I guess yeah, because I like the Guardians. I don't know if I like the Messick outs as much anymore. Let's find, sorry guys, we'll find something. Boy, don't need it if we just like the Guardians. I mean, we just take the money on. I just like the Guardians. Yeah. I mean, we're both not fans of bad. So that's why I think I mean, I can tell you

25:10what else I can tell you. Okay, the no, who do I like to not have a hit? I see Joe mentioning a scar up, but he already, but he already went. Shout out to a scar, by the way, for getting void at yesterday is the only play that I ended up losing. So I'm not losing. The only play I didn't win yesterday is I went 201. So yeah, cool. Shout out to him. How about, um, I don't know, man, this whole thing stinks. Like, I don't know. We can do one. Yeah, I just like the Guardians. I'm not trying not to force anything really, and there's nothing I really love. Yeah, I think I'm on the same page as you, but you have a bunch of stuff today. And it's like, like Vlad single, like Burkami walk. Yeah, once again, we got stuff. I'd say we didn't go overboard. It's like, yeah, it's the fourth game, like fourth game of a lot of

26:12series, you know, yeah. So Guardians, though, I could do the Guardians. I could get into that. I guess one more question. I'll ask you because you said you didn't want the kings because they were on the road for this game. But I didn't want to kings. I don't like to play a puck line on it. No, no, I get it. It is juicy, but I am going to ask, do you have any interest in Edmonton? It's mine is 125, but they're at home against Vancouver. Just ask. No, they probably not, to be honest. I'll just throw on stuff out there. I mean, maybe it's what's their first period team total? That didn't check, but they would have I have to imagine over one and a half would be the only plus money option available for that entire. Yeah, which I which I would that would be into. Yeah, I'd be into them coming out strong at home. Yeah, oh, I'm just quickly see what I can get here. First period puck line. I think draft Kings like pulled both their cocky ones for today. For now, I can check it on a Fandall, give me a second. But that's something

27:15that I think makes sense. I'm just quickly see what I can get it. Okay, so first period, sorry, it's pulling it up right now. First period oilers over one and a half plus 182. That's pretty nice. What about that's a fantastic or what's their what's their puck line? The first period puck line in the first period oilers minus one and a half is plus 340. Are you serious? Yeah, wait, minus one and a half like what's one and a half in the first period? Yeah, well, let's do minus zero and let's do minus a half a call. We don't need to do we don't need to go overboard. Close 105. Oh, I would take that. Why don't we do that? Oh, I like it. Yeah, let's do that. Okay, let's do the guardians and you're talking crazy with that other one. That was nuts. I thought I'd get one as a swing foot. Your puck line in the mind immediately goes the one and a half. No, I get it. I get it. I just thought it was pretty fun if that maintain just fully jumps on. But yeah, I just take the guards and then let me look at this.

28:20Yeah, first period, first period for them to win the first period, I think, is. All's number five. I mean, sure. Yeah, I like that. Or what's the three-way line? Yeah, plus 105. Let's do it. Cool. Or if you want to once again, the over one and a half goals in the first period, plus 182. So you have a couple of options. Let's go for that. Let's do that puck line. Anything else you want to mention? I want to go through the bracket real quick and just talk about our predictions or do we not care? Well, depends. If you want to do a future episode, then no. Fine. You guys can fucking listen to our futures episode when we do that. Yeah, well, I guess we're doing a future episode then. So yeah, that's fine. Cool. Anyway, before we get into our best bets and of course, $100. Yeah. No. Yeah, our mind are brought to you by response to a rhythm, official data tool for Domain and the NBA, MLB and golf. Check out the house models they have, check out the models you can build. So once again, a couple ways to capitalize on the model building process. Just to look ahead, actually, to some of the other baseball games later on today,

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30:27bonus, that's cut promo code SGP and put your money where your mouth is on cut. Welcome back everyone to the prop cast finish going through all of our props for the final hockey day. Time to move on into the best bets. Adam, what is your best bet for the show? Gotta be this toy Terry over two and a half shots on goal. And what was the price on that again? Minus one ten. Okay, so mine is going to be on Nick Schmultz. I'm going to take his over two and a half shots on goal at plus one oh five. I like the price once again. He's going over in sixth the last seven. The volume's been there at home as well. He's attempted seven plus shots in four the last five. I see a great opportunity and say lose we said before is really bad defensively. Give me Schmultz over two and a half shots on goal at plus one oh five as my best bet for the show. Moving on to underdog Adam, what do you want to do? Let's let's do some of these incentive ones that everybody's been talking about. Yeah, let's do Connor McDavid. Do they have the power

31:30play point? I'm sure they do. So I'm down with that if they have it. Yeah, they have that. Okay, cool. So go with the higher half power play point. Stuart Troy you into Troy Terry shots on goal. Sure. I liked we could do the snuggie goal. You want to do snuggie point to play it safe. Yeah, okay, cool. Okay, Jimmy Snuggler would hire 0.5 points. Troy Terry hire two and a half shots on goal. Connor McDavid hire 0.5 power play points. 5.39 multiplier. Cool. $50 will win you allegedly $269.50. There you go. That's going to wrap it up for the final hockey regular season episode of the season. Our reminder though, before officially in the show, Adam, can you just recap for three plus? Yes. Troy Terry over two and a half shots on goal. He's on Anaheim. I saw somebody in the comments asking about the teams. Alex Laferia anytime goal plus two 30. He is on the

32:34Kings and also named Alex Alex Nigelovich under 20. Nigelkovich. Nigelkovich. Yeah, you're a tennis guy. You probably know all these. I'm used to all the Serbian type. Yeah, all the Serbians. Yeah, that's fine. On your 23 and a half saves. Cool. He's on the sharks. Yes. A former hurricane guy. A four of my three plays. I'm going to go with Eric Hala. I'm going to go with his under one half shots on goal minus 130. Conor McDavid to record a power play point at minus 110 and Nick Schmultz over two and half shots on goal at plus 105. Anyway, let's wrap it up for the show. Back again once again tomorrow for baseball. Till next time, good luck to all of you and all of your bets. Bye, everyone.

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