Sep 08 | Closing Market Report

0:00From the land to Grand Thea University, in Urbana, Champagne, Illinois, this is the closing market reported is the 8th day of September, 2026. I'm Extensions Tundleysen. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloom at TotalFarmMarketing.com. We'll hear from Add Us in Agricultural Economist at the University of Minnesota, and along the way, update you on the administration's policies related to beef and beef imports, and how some producers, ranchers, are impacted by that. Their feelings as they look towards Washington DC, and then we'll turn our attention as well. To the weather forecast, Don Day is here. He's with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and we'll do that all on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois, public medium. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at willag.org. Todd Gleason's services are made available to W.I.L.L. by University of Illinois Extension. A December corn for the day settled at $5.33.5,

1:03down 3.25 cents, marty at $5.49, 3.25 lower, and the May contract also down 3.25. It settled at $5.56, and a half November, New Crop Soybeans, $13.16, and a quarter, up 6.5 cents, January 1332, 7 higher, and the Marchup 8, and a quarter cents at $13.38.5 for the soybeans being mealed, down $4.90 at $3.43.30, the bean oil at $70.22, a $3.33 higher, weed futures, soft red, and the December at $7.47. A gain of $13.00, the hard-read at $8.19 in December at $16.00, and 3.25 cents, a live cattle futures in Chicago, $4.00.7.5 cents, a feeders up $5.30 in lean hogs, $1.95 higher crude oil at $92.92, a barrel, a $1.45.00. Naomi Bloom from Total Farm Marketing now joins us to take a look at what's happened after the three-day weekend,

2:05Labor Day. Naomi, thanks for being with us. Hope you had a great weekend. Thank you for having me. It was a nice work-at-home weekend. Got a lot of stuff done. Be too. I love working in the yard sometimes, and it was really good, whether it was great over the weekend. And given it was a three-day weekend, not much changed, frankly, in Chicago. Tell me about the trade for today. Yeah, some quiet two-sided trade action for corn and soybeans. Wheat up stronger on the overnight and was able to finish the day with some double-digit gains, as still more concerns about what's happening with the Black Sea region. But one thing to kind of take note of is that corn futures today close below both the five intending moving averages. So they are needing some fresh bullish news soon, or we might see a simple pullback on corn prices similar to what we did a couple weeks ago. The beans just continue to teeter-totter on the sideways little shuffle here,

3:06waiting for some fresh news as well. And we probably don't get much for fresh news until Friday's Wazzie Report. What are the expectations there? Well, we are seeing some pre-report estimates of lower-ending stocks, lower yield numbers. It looks like one pre-report estimate for yield for corn is coming out near like the 176 half area for soybean yield. Maybe real close to the last USDA number, potentially a little bit smaller. The question though is going to be, is that information already priced into the market? Ever since we had the pro farmer crop tour, grain prices had surged higher, expecting lower production. So is the USDA going to just echo what we already have been trading in? Or are they going to give us anything over the top bullish? Will they do something where they just do a modest reduction and don't give us any new bullish information like we're hoping for?

4:07So just something to be aware of, you know, would be, you know, a little bit more of a good deal of that. We are going to see $6 corn. And it could happen, but it's going to take some even lower yield numbers from the USDA. In my opinion, yield would have to come in near 175 in order for corn to take that next leg higher in the short term. Again, otherwise we might see a pullback. Dece corn today finishing $5.33 half, $3.25. If the market does a simple 50% correction from the three-week rally we had, down near the $5 area. So there is still some price value to protect and just be ready for any scenario to unfold as this week goes on. Have you heard any very, very early yields from producers who have been in the fields? Near St. John Missouri, I heard a producer tell me it was just average, like on a five-year average, definitely some parts of this field that were below expectations, some a little bit surprising.

5:08A farmer in Northwest Iowa who was doing silage told me that it was coming in at $2.25 last year it was running near $2.50 when you do the appraisal for yield adjustment there. So not as good as last year, but definitely not terrible. So that's again, part of that yield reduction that maybe we're already seeing and expecting. And the question is, is it going to be priced into the market already or not? Not as good as last year. When it was the best year we've ever had is an interesting function. So we'll see how as more producers get into the field through the month of September how things turn. And what of course, USDA will have to say this will be their first crop production report that includes some on-the-ground numbers, meaning they were in the fields taking counts as of September the first. And that should be, give us a better idea, potentially, particularly as far along as I think this crop might be at this point.

6:08What else are you watching in the marketplace at this time, whether that be in the livestock, the outside markets, or if you want to return to the Black Sea area and what's happening there? Yeah, so two things keeping an eye on. So the cattle prices for live cattle and feeder cattle had been trading in a very cautious two weeks sideways trading pattern, but today we're able to break through some short-term resistance. And we saw a technical buying with live cattle and feeder cattle gaining some ground today. Again, mostly technical buying there. We're waiting for some confirmation of additional news as far as we're cash would trade this week. But box-be values today were a little bit stronger, so that was supportive. And then over in the crude oil complex, of course the continued escalation in the Middle East keeping crude oil prices a little bit higher. Nearby October crude oil trading, they're 92 half up about a buck, so we're not seeing any relief there yet. So again, keep an eye on Middle East prices, keep an eye on Middle East war, crude oil prices.

7:10And then we have some just economic news coming out this week with consumer price index. So we'll be keeping an eye on inflation numbers as well. Hey, thanks much. We appreciate it. Thank you. That's Naomi Bloom. She is with TotalFarmMarketing.com. Thursday of this week, indicator, the Illinois soybean association will be putting on a field day. The important part for us here on campus is that there will be two agricultural professors from crop sciences there to talk about soybeans and corn. And one of them will talk about fertility. That's John Jones, the other about entomology that would be Nick Cider. You can join them online. You can join them in the field there. It's a day long event. Go to the Illinois soybean association and check out their field day indicator. If you can't find it, visit our website and scroll down to the calendar. There is a link inside that field crop day on Thursday of this week.

8:13Of course, I'll be there and report back to you from that field day as well on Thursday. One quick ag news item for the day last Friday, President Trump surrounded by beef producers in the Oval Office set of the already announced 90 days suspension of tariffs on some 300,000 metric tons of imported beef from countries, including Brazil and Argentina, that they, the beef producers, all wanted it and lower prices. This is actually the second fall in a row. The president has managed to make beef producers unhappy by further opening the US market to foreign beef in hopes of lowering consumer prices. You can't drive consumer price down while inspiring the producers to stay in business. It just doesn't work that way.

9:13That's John O'Day from a Facebook post he made this morning. He's a beef producer in southwestern Nebraska. A hand has about 2000 head of cattle on his property right now. He's vocal on Facebook and has some pretty strong thoughts about the administration's plans to grow the cattle industry in the United States. He gave me permission to share his thoughts. He had a good friend of mine sent me a simple yet profound message. He said, what kind of person decides to enter into a business or expand a business in hopes that they can drive their income down. That's essentially what the government is saying. You're going to get into the cow business so you can make less money. We want to expand your business so you can make less money. The administration says the imported beef is to be sold at a 25% discount compared to market prices. There aren't any details on how that's supposed to happen. However, this all comes after another oval office meeting.

10:23It took place with one of the co-owners of JBS, the world's largest meat packer. A subsidiary of that company, Pogom's Pride, was reportedly the largest donor to President Trump's second inauguration. The ranchers were in the oval office to watch the president sign a series of executive orders aimed at placating their concerns over the beef imports. Those orders, among other things, aimed to reduce the market dominance of the four largest meat processors. JBS is an example by allowing farmers and ranchers to process package and sell their meat directly to consumers across state lines. I'm wondering, after this three-day weekend, whether things have changed, I doubt it. Maybe you could tell me, let's start with the crop, other than spring wheat to the North probably, if you even, for the most part.

11:39Whether things have really changed in wheat at this point. The spring wheat crop is essentially well in the harvest now. It's in the wrap-up phase and it'll be a decent crop in Minnesota in North Dakota. I'm going back four years ago when the Russia-Ukraine War first broke out and the wheat market really took off at that time. I recall the market's soaring spring wheat prices, soft wheat prices, they're all moving high. I have a discussion with one of the biggest exporters of wheat. Big grain go out based up here in the US. He's amazed at the rally and the market and that. He says, the funny thing is though, we haven't sold any more wheat. I mean, it's like, would they have problems in Russia and Ukraine? They're not moving wheat.

12:43And the idea, of course, is the people, the countries that would buy wheat from those countries, got to come somewhere else. And that's us or Canada. And he's just like, you know, we just really don't have any export sales to talk about that are extraordinary or new. And I feel like the same things happening now. We're getting hell of a run up. A lot of anticipation of new business coming our way. And yet here, I'll look at the Wazdu report. I wonder if they even change wheat exports. We'll look. We'll look. That's my thought on wheat. We'll find out Friday just to follow up. It appears to me and I saw the data on this just this morning that the United States wheat from the exportable places out of the golfing particular is still higher price than almost every else across the planet. If we want to sustain the higher price, we've got to start selling something. So that's my that's my thought on wheat.

13:45Well, if you want to sustain the higher price, you have to start selling somewhere. I want to talk about this rally that we have had in soybeans and corn both. Heading into harvest season. What are your thoughts? Well, my first thought is a condition to talk. I believe the last time we talked was the first week in August. And I had just completed the week before three different forays and the different parts of Minnesota and my goodness, we had a beautiful crop. And I believe my bold prediction is that we would revisit the June lows come harvest, which was in order to 20, 30 cents lower in corn and maybe 40 or 50 cents lower in soybeans. And Todd, a man is rarely that wrong. What's not harvest yet? Rarely that wrong. And we had an incredible August. I mean, I think we talked just about on the lot loads for August.

14:49I did a low analysis. It'll show up in my farm futures column that'll come out soon. If not out already. I took a look at we had from the start of August to the end of August, the price December corn futures were up almost 14%. That was the biggest August rise I can find in the last 37 years. Now I did find three other years somewhere, 2003, 2011, 2022, the December contracts. And all I did is I said, okay, we've had a huge rise in August. Let's take it to the end of November into harvest all the way through harvest for corn. What the December contract doing those three years in 2003? It got when a nickel higher. I mean, basically unchanged. We didn't the rally didn't keep going 2011.

15:49The market set back a buck 30 of bushel. Now I will say in 2011, we started from a very high level. We were over $7 a bushel in the December contract. And then four years ago, the December 22 contract, 10% rise in the month of August, 4% higher by the end of November. So it's a small sample size. But I guess I'm leaning towards, okay, we're going to settle in and we're going to we're going to work into harvest here. And if you're thinking $7 corn, $8 corn, take a deep breath. Take a deep breath. I don't know if that's going to happen. So I did the same thing on November soybeans. Now the November contract did not rise more than 10% in August. It was only up 8%. But that was the fifth the best year in the last 37 years.

16:49So I looked at four other years 2000, 2003, 2004, 2013. After that big August, August run up, it settled back by the end of October. Anywhere from 50 cents to a buck 10, okay. Again, like 2013 started from a very high level. And then exception here. And it's a year I remember well, 2003, when we had a big August increase and then by the end of October, we were up in our $2. 2003 was an incredible year. I don't think many people know this Todd, but that was by my calculation. I looked at the US yield versus trend in 2003. It's the fifth worst year for US soybean yields since in the last 75 years.

17:55The fifth and that maybe yourself and maybe some year listeners are saying, wait a second, 2003 was not a drought year. Well, we always measured droughts by what it did to the corn market. And of course, corn that year got through the critical development stages and ended up fine. It was sort of a trend line yield, maybe maybe a touch below, but it hurt the corn market and the soybean market because it quit raining in August. So it's a small sample size, but and I don't think we're 2003. I don't believe we're going to fall off on the yields that bad. So take a deep breath and enjoy this rally. Don't hold out for a lot higher in the next couple months. I have been of a mind that part of this rally has been the weather, but the bulk of the rally has been the energy sector wars that are taking place in the Middle East and the Ukraine and Russia.

18:58That puts us at 2022. Plus you have the biofuels expansion, RFS, particularly for soybean oil. And I'm wondering how you put those into context. It's not analogous to those years that just talked about. And that that's always the challenge every year is a little bit different every year has its own story. So that's why grain marketing is not easy. Well, I was looking for an answer. Let's go with grain market. It's not easy. Anything else before I let you go. Oh boy. No, I'm looking at the Minnesota crops. I'm boy a month ago. I just thought we had a shot at setting records in corn and soybean yields again.

19:58As we did last year, but I've paired back those thoughts quite a bit. Thank you much, Ed. Okay. Thank you, Todd. You're so welcome. That's at us at He's an Agricultural Economist at the University of Minnesota and with extension. You, by the way, are listening to the closing market report on this Tuesday afternoon. It comes to you from ill and all public medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at W-I-L-L-A-G-D-O-R-G. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County Illinois Farmer Tim Glickson. Let's take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. We'll stay in the United States today. Don Dei is here with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Finally, some relief from the heat at least in my part of the world. What can you tell me about the growing regions in the United States? Start in the Southwest, please. Well, the Southwest is going to start to see some shower and thunderstorm activity is spreading and getting a little bit more eastward along with very modest heat relief.

21:06We still have a lot of high pressure in the Central United States. So there's nothing really strong coming out of the Northwest United States would have a big drop in temperature. But the way the high pressure pattern is working in the southern U.S. and low pressure in the Pacific Northwest is helping to bring subtropical moisture north and eastward. And that's going to be draping slightly cooler temperatures and showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central and the South here over the next few days. And the corn belt will that rainfall come our way as well and the cooler temperatures. Yes and yes, over the next week, I do see some cooler temperatures again, not dramatically cooler, but enough to take the edge off. And over the next seven days, shower and thunderstorm activity, especially in the Western Central Corn Belt, even parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. And reaving in a start to see some showers and thunderstorms over some areas that haven't had that in a while like Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kansas and into Missouri relief for them. How badly is that rainfall needed?

22:08Well, there's been quite a stretch where there hasn't been any significant precipitation in those areas that is mentioned. The precipitation that's been around in July and into the month of August has been favoring more of the northern I 80 corridor areas and those areas further to the South really could use anything else of interest that you've been watching. Well, I think we continue to see the Pacific Ocean, turn out one hurricane and tropical storm after another. Now a lot of folks might think, well, that's out of sight out of mind. That's too far away. Well, it really isn't. We've seen some of that some tropical moisture like here in the next week or so, getting into the US. And I think there's more of it to come as we go under the rest of the month and in October. Thanks much, done. Thank you. Don De is with day weather. He's in Cheyenne, Wyoming, helped us to wrap up this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to from Illinois, public, medium, online on demand, the WILL AG dot ORG. I'm extensions Todd Gleysen.