Sep 09 | Closing Market Report

0:00From the Land to Grand University and Urbana Champagne, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the 9th day of September 2026. I'm Extensions Tut Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets and the pre-report estimates for USDA's crop reduction figures with Greg Johnson at TGM, right here in Champagne County, then we'll turn our attention to the state of the beef industry in the United States. And as we wrap up our time together, we'll talk about the weather forecast too in the Americas from South America, Argentina, Brazil, all the way into Canada, the United States as well. We'll do that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday afternoon addition of the closing market report. From Illinois Public Medium, it is public radio for the farming world online at www.ilag.org. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WRL by University of Illinois Extension.

1:00In Chicago, December corn finished 5 and 3-quarters lower at $5.27, 3-quarters of a cent of bush old, a march at $5.43, a quarter down 5 and 3-quarters in May, 5 and a half lower at $5.51 on the settlement price. November, soybeans, $13.9 and a half, a bushel, $6.3, a quarter lower, January 1325 at a quarter down, $6.3, a quarter as well. Bean meal futures, $1.80, higher the bean oil down, $0.14, wheat futures in the December, soft red down, $18.25, $7.28, $3.25, the hard red, at $8.06, and a quarter 12, and 3-quarters of a cent lower, live cattle down $1.17, a half, feeders up, $37.5, and hogs, $1.17.5 lower. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's total grain marketing here in Champaign County, the elevator system. Now, joins us to talk about the marketplaces we had barreling towards Friday and the 11am central time, USDA report. We have numbers from Bloomberg and from Reuters and from Stonex.

2:03Both Reuters and Bloomberg were below the 180.7 that USDA delivered in August for the average Corn yield. Stonex was above that number. What are you thinking about all of them? Yeah, it kind of feels like the consensus of traders and analysts going into the report on Friday is that Corn yield may be lowered by about two bushels to the acre. Soybeans may be not quite a half a bush, all three tens to half a bush, so the weather to finish the crop was not quite as ideal as what we were hoping for. I think in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, maybe the crop maintains. I don't think we see a big drop in those individual states, but the Dakotas in Minnesota, they really turned off hot and dry in August and it feels like that's where we'll see the yield drop come out of that extreme north, northwest part of the Midwest. That's what traders are expecting. I always

3:05remind people that yield is one component of this production number. The other is acres and USDA last year increased corn acres in both the August and September report. So far this year, they did increase the acres again in the August report. Will they do that again in September? I guess we'll find out on Friday, but that's something to keep in mind is that it's all about production, whether they find it in the in the yield or in the acres, it all adds up to production. So traders are, I think, looking for a slightly smaller production number on both corn and soybeans. And so that's keeping people friendly a little bit, keeping farmers from selling too much. On the flip side, we are at almost three year highs in soybeans. We are at three year highs in corn. So these are good prices. The question is, will we see even better prices post-harvest? Just on the acreage, it's important to remember that USDA and its March in June numbers is

4:06primarily using surveys of farmers. First of what they expected, they were going to plant June of what they have planted and what they may or may not yet plant still. And then in August, they've already begun to get some of the FSA numbers in and that's when they started to really to begin. And just the last couple of years to change the numbers, those continue to come in, of course, and they adjust them and can. Prior to this, it was generally October before we got any changes in the acreage figures. They're just coming sooner now than they have. And they're based on data coming in from FSA and what farmers have actually put into the ground. Now, tell me about this week so far. Greg, as it's related to price, it appears that they're still worried, not so much about weather, but what's happening in the Middle East, but almost marking time before this USDA report on Friday. Exactly. Yeah, the reports going to take center stage on Friday.

5:08After that, we go back to talking about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Reports this morning were that Ukraine bombed one of the Russian-Green ports and according to infrared satellite photos, there were fires. So it sounds like they made a hit and that may curtail grain exports out of that port for some time. So that continues to be something to keep an eye on. The big news probably, you know, at some point in time, will be the wildcard in this whole thing. And I think we've talked about this several times is China. According to my numbers, China bought some more beans. This morning, another flash sale was reported to China. That puts them, according to my calculations, that almost 50% bought of the 25 million metric tons that they supposedly agreed to buy from the US. So they're on the right path. They're on the path of buying that 25 million. The question is,

6:08will they buy less than 25 million? Will they start slowing up or will they buy more than 25 million? Or will they buy exactly 25 million? And then the follow-up question is corn. Will China buy corn? They're according to this agreement per Trump. China has committed to spend $17 billion worth of money on US commodities other than soybeans. And if any of that is corn, with a lower yield and increased demand because of the situation in the Middle East and the Black Sea, that could be the next impetus for higher corn prices. But Trump and G meet supposedly in late September if that doesn't get pushed back. So maybe we'll have some more details here at the end of the month, but that's certainly worth keeping an eye on. September 23, 4 and 5, you are talking about marketing year numbers, so for new crop corn and soybeans? Correct. That's exactly what we're talking about. Okay. Now, what do you think producers should do other than to go out and take some counts and

7:11look to see when they're going to harvest? Well, I think it boils down to percentages here. It feels to me like there's just as much upside from these prices as downside, with the wild card being China. So if you've got inside information on whether China is going to buy or not, that would tell you whether to hold or to sell. But really, if you're less than 25% sold, what's wrong with getting a little bit more corn sold and more bean sold at three year high prices? If you're already half sold, I think you can afford to be patient and see this thing play out. We may sell off a little bit into harvest. We may see a little harvest pressure as we get into the harvest and farmers rewarding this rally. But again, if China shows up, we can make that up in one day. So I think at all boils down to percentages, the bottom line is I think we can make money even with the higher input costs. And so the whole idea of marketing is not to predict the high of the market or the low of the market.

8:12The idea is to lock in profits. And if you can lock in profits, there's nothing wrong with locking in some profits on some of your bushels. I know it's very early, but have you been listening or hearing anything out of South America as it's related to the number of acres that Brazil might put into the ground, whether they will make expansion this year and how soon they might decide that they can really begin to run the planters. That's an excellent question. I have not heard any thing yet early on. We had heard that acres were actually might be flat for the first time in 15, 20 years that Brazil may not expand their soybean acreage, even though there's millions of acres that could be brought into production. But that was back when the prices weren't near as high. Now that we've had this rally, I would certainly expect Brazil to increase acres, maybe another million, a half more acres than what they planted last year as a response to $13 prices. I haven't seen anything in print or any surveys out of South America, out of Brazil or Argentina,

9:17but common sense and the law of supply and demand would say Brazilian farmers should be more willing to grow some more acres at $13 and they were at $11. Hey, thank you much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week. Hey, thanks Todd. Here, welcome Greg Johnson is with TGM Now Stone Acts. By the way, has released its estimate of the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops. The numbers are based on a survey of the company's customers and carried out by the De Boine Office, says researcher Mike Castle. I do think it's kind of worth pointing out. I know it's not necessarily what folks want to hear, but it is, you know, pretty solid historically speaking. Obviously, last year was a good example of that. That first print at 188, everyone kind of got upset, freaked out about that and then USDA came in above that at 188. It ended up at 186.0 and then USDA's final was 186.5. So it does have a good track record. This year, the Stone Acts put the corn yield at 148.8 in August. Its September estimate has dropped and that number is now 182.9,

10:21which is still two bushels better than the USDA's current estimate. The company has the Illinois corn crop at 212 bushels to the acre, Indiana 203 and Iowa at 214. USDA's next crop production report, of course, is due Friday at 11am. The agency currently has the US CornCrop Pag at 180.7. Again, the Stone Acts number 182.9 pre-report Bloomberg at 178.1 on the average and Reuters at 178.2. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media online on demand at wilag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. Now, up next, we'll hear a portion of an interview that our colleague Caesar Delgado from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting did with Extension Beef Specialist Travis Matier, he'd asked Travis about the US Mexico border plant closures in the United States

11:29meat packing plants that is and where we might be in the primary beef cycle. I think it's obviously sending a signal. We understand that we're in the part of the cattle cycle where we do have lower numbers. And so we have reduced fed cattle numbers. We've seen the Mexican border closure that probably is exacerbated that situation. And so the signal was sent. The packing sector is consolidating and shutting some of these plants down because of the reduction in numbers of head available. We're feeding these cattle to all time heavy weights. So beef production and the pounds of beef were able to kind of compensate by taking these cattle to heavier weights. And that's happening. But as far as just sheer number, there are less cattle to be bid on. If we remember back during COVID, though, the packer is making a tremendous margin on these fed cattle.

12:33And so I would say as an industry, there's all these ebbs and flows. And so while right now, there's not as much need for the capacity because of the way we are in terms of the cattle supply, with the cow herd numbers being in all time below, we were just getting to the point where we were seeing some profitability in the cow calf sector. And that generally sends, you know, history tells us when we've got profitability in the cow calf sector, our cattle producers are good at adding cows and growing the cow herd back to produce more calves that enter the feedlot. So it is a cycle. We're just in a spot at the cycle where we're at low inventory, low cow herd inventory numbers. And the closer to the Mexican borders really kept the feedlot, or excuse me, the feeder cattle supply to all time lows. And so I wish we didn't have any government intervention.

13:36I wish we'd let the markets work. I wish we'd let the profitability signals to the cow calf producer grow the cow herd and we would come back. I just think there's been some things here in the last, you know, really year and and 16 months that from a policy standpoint is kind of intervened. And so unfortunately, we're just we're dealing with the repercussions of having less cattle around. Hopefully we can grow the cow herd here subtly over the next couple years and bring back some numbers of of had a cattle and grow the beef herd so that we can increase our, you know, our harvest available cattle. That was a portion of an interview that Travis Matier did with Cesar Delgado, a colleague of ours from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting thanks to Travis and to Cesar for making the audio available to us. Travis is an extension beef specialist at the University of Illinois. Let's turn our attention to the global growing regions. Drew Lerner is here to talk

14:50about the weather and weather forecast for each of them. Hi Drew, thank you for being with us. I think we have quite a bit of ground to cover today. We usually do, but I want to stay with the Americas. We'll begin in South America, particularly with Brazil, Mato Grosso, center west, and how things progressed. Last week you told us there were some scattered showers that usually happens as they move from the dry season into a wetter season. They need rainfall in order to have enough moisture to put a crop in the ground. How do you think things are progressing there? Well, they've had a couple of additional vows of scattered showers and thunderstorms in center west Brazil over the past week. Most of it's still been quite erratic, mostly light, but it's pretty unusual to get such a frequency of rain to occur in the first days of September. So this is a positive thing for the farmers there. Maybe not so great for here at home from a

15:52marketing perspective, but the situation is going to continue to be favoring scattered showers. And I know there's been a lot of chatter in the marketplace. Oh, there's going to be trouble in South America this year. And there may well be a little later down the road, but there's certainly looking at it potential here to get into the fields nice and early. And that would be good for both the soybeans and the safrina crops later in 27. The outlook near term though is still erratic for these showers and thunderstorms. So it'll take another week to 10 days to get enough moisture to really start some serious planting, but that planting usually occurs in the second half of September anyway. So the stage is being set for some good progress there. And farther to the south, it's much wetter. And so Paranai, parts of salt, polo, a Paraguay, southern Montagross, who to sow those areas, they have almost too much moisture and frequent rains coming up. So that is always my greatest area of concern. I think that they will have a lot of excess moisture down that

16:56way this season. It will slow them down and just cause problems that they can't overcome, you suppose? I do think I think they're all common spurts. And I think they'll get into the fields and get going pretty good. And then suddenly they'll get hit with a big rain and they'll lose some of the crops or have to plant it again. And I kind of think that'll happen at least once if not twice over the planting season. Turn your attention to the southwestern part of the United States, parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas. What concerns do we have for seeding the wheat crop in those areas? Yeah, it's just been crazy hot. I've been doing this for a long time. In 1980 and I think 2011, where the two years that stand out in the history books is being persistently hot and dry in that area from Kansas to Texas. And we have certainly matched that this year. And again, this past week, since we talked last, I don't think we've had any days that there weren't 100 degree temperatures

17:59scattered across that region. Maybe in Kansas, they had a little bit of a relief. But anyway, we are looking at several more days of upper 90 and lower 100 degree readings that'll probably take us a full week down the road. And then we will probably start getting a little bit more serious with some better pooling taking place later in the month. Now showers and thunderstorms are occurring in Kansas and Nebraska and parts of Colorado. And it looks like we're going to push some of that down into Oklahoma briefly, maybe a part of the Texas panhandle. The problem is it's so hot every day that we're revapering the moisture out almost as quickly as we make it rain. So they're not making a lot of progress. But there's at least moisture here that when we do start to cool down, they'll do a little bit better. So not a lot of fieldwork right now, except for in irrigated areas. But the stage will be set for improvement down the road. Row crops are maturing throughout the corn belt. Any concerns across those regions?

18:59Iowa just got clobbered with a couple of big rain events laid in the holiday weekend. Western Iowa saw some impressive one to three inch rains and locally greater amounts. And last night we saw the southern part of Iowa get hit with two to six inch rains with the Devoin area getting some of the greater amounts. So that's just a small part of the corn belt, but a very important one. Obviously, fieldwork is going to be sluggish in that area. We are not done with precipitation in Iowa. And what we're going to do over the next week is probably expand that wetter bias to include areas from eastern Kansas and Missouri through Iowa and parts of western and northern Illinois to Wisconsin and maybe western Michigan. So a large portion of the Midwest is likely to get quite a bit of rain and that's going to slow down the maturation process and perhaps create a bit of concern about harvest progress. I don't think this is going to last too terribly long, but for now that'll be the big concern. We're extraordinary rainfalls in parts

20:06of Illinois and Indiana during the month of August. And it is hard to say that we might want to have a little of that rain once in a while here. Do you see anything in the offing for us? You know, I think that we will see some scattered showers for sure across most of the production area at one time or other over this next 10-day period. So there will be an opportunity for that. I think that it's going to be much more varied once you get out of that corridor I just described. But yeah, I don't see anybody being persistently dry except the parts of the delta and portions of the southern plains. Those areas will continue to have a real tough time getting meaningful moisture. As far as too much moisture is concerned, I really think it's going to be concentrated on that area from Kansas to Wisconsin and parts of Missouri and northwestern Illinois. I don't think there is see too much of a problem elsewhere. Okay, now turn your attention to the Canadian prairies. I hear they may have had some rainfall over the weekend. Yeah, big storm system. It turned out to be much

21:08larger than anticipated. And multiple inches of rain occurred across the scatch one as southern Alberta and portions of Manitoba. And for some areas in Saskatchewan, it was still it was already too wet in the east. The southwest was pretty dry along with southern Alberta and the rain that occurred in those areas has certainly set back fieldwork which was already behind because of the cold wet spring they had. And so there's a lot of chatter out there now about what happens next. Well, the good news for the drier the previous dry by the series in the southwest praise is that the ground will absorb that moisture fairly quickly and they'll get back at it. I don't think there's going to be a lot of problem in Alberta or in southwestern Saskatchewan. But the rest of the Saskatchewan they saw rain totals run from two to six inches there as well and it is going to turn cooler now. Well, the risk of some frosty weather coming up these crops are not mature and between the rain and

22:09the cool weather coming up there's a potential that there's going to be a notable quality decline. And that's the big concern. They've got to have drier weather. It looks like it'll get dry air but it's going to be a slow process that it will take place over the next couple of weeks. So we'll keep an eye on that up there. Okay, thanks much. I appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week. You bet. Drew Learner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. We're online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us. Go to wilag.org. That's willag.org where you'll find our daily programming, the opening market report, closing market report, everything in between along with our weekly commodity week discussion and information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist and the animal scientist right here on the urban champagne campus of the University of Illinois. I'm extensions Todd Gleason.

23:31So