RP Clips: Romeo Doubs Can Thrive in New England

0:00This is reception, reception, the show. Now, James Cole and Matt Harmon. OK, next one for me in final one. The most boring one. I saved the most boring one for last. Ooh, OK. Romeo Dobbs catches 80 plus passes this season. I am really, honestly, again, to bring up the K-Shombooty and the Kyle Williams profile, I'm really spooked about the Patriots offense a little bit. Not that I think they're going to be bad this year, but just the design of who is playing the extra-seat respawn in this offense? And Romeo Dobbs wasn't X last year for the Green Bay Packers, but he wasn't necessarily a vertical X. And I think everybody is going to acknowledge Romeo Dobbs is not really a vertical threat. Yeah, I look at the whole structure of the passing game right now. And every report out of camp is that Romeo Dobbs is going to kind of be like they're, they talk about him more

1:00as the slot option versus AJ Brown being the slot option. I would be a little bit shocked, a little bit shocked if we ended up seeing AJ Brown is, you know, in the K-Shombooty Kyle Williams mold of 90% outside on the Linus Grimage and, you know, 30.4, 34.4% go route percentage for K-Shombooty last year. Oh, God. That was the third highest in any season. I have ever charted, guess who number five was? Kyle Williams. Like it is really crazy when you look at just how sacrificial those, maybe Kyle Williams is their sacrificial excess here. I don't know, but it hasn't sounded like he's, you know, a top fully receiver necessarily on the depth chart, although he's balled out in preseason. He's been making some of those sacrifices look pretty good because like he basically just catches a go route bomb every single preseason game. I looked back at this and, you know, I started charting RP in 2014 and, you know,

2:01to be frank, there haven't been like a ton of, you know, number like outside receivers to chart in the New England Patriots offense over that span. I went back to like Chris Hogan, who was kind of a 60, 40 outside slot. So I don't know if that really counted. Brandon Cooks was, you know, back in 2017. He was not deployed this way. So that's interesting. But then I looked at, I don't have a data for these guys, but I looked at PFF data. 2021 Nelson Aguilar ran a go route on 34% of his routes that year. 2019 Philip Doris set 33% of his routes that year were go routes. Nelson Aguilar was outside on 92% of his routes in 2021. Like is this just what Josh McDaniels does with his extra receiver? I mean, fairness, he didn't, he didn't really, this is not how Delante Adams was used with the Las Vegas Raiders, but at least some of these examples are interesting to me. And it just makes me a little nervous about, I think AJ Brown. I'm nervous about like does AJ Brown

3:03get stuck in that role? And that to me is more problematic than the any sort of, and obviously I am a little worried about the signs of decline we saw last year. And I think it's going to make it look worse. Like I think that would make it look worse if AJ Brown is in that role. I'm hoping that, and I'm really, you know, I'm hoping that I'm just overthinking it and this is not so static, but let's just say it is. And even if it's not that static, I still think Romeo Dobbs is actually, like nobody cares, nobody's talked about Romeo Dobbs, but I think he's actually set up really well to be the clear cut number two in this offense. Drake Mays, dude, his routes fit, Drake may really well. I think Romeo Dobbs is going to come out here and have a pretty surprising, see I think AJ Brown could still be good, but I think Romeo Dobbs is going to have a pretty surprising season this year. Is there anything in Josh McDaniel's profile that suggests that he can get creative as the season goes along? I don't think so. I think what we see in early season is going to be indicative, a very indicative of what we see late in the season. And the other thing I'll say about Josh McDaniel's too is,

4:05yeah, I just don't know, I don't know how creative he is, you know, and you could make the case that, hey, he just hasn't had a good collection of wide receiver. So what's the point of getting creative with the routes? But more of a reason to be creative. That's also a great point, man. That's also a great point, but I don't know, I know Josh McDaniel's has built his entire career on the bones of New England and Tom Brady and all those things, but I don't know, man, like I said, like him away from Tom Brady, are we that sure that he is a guy? I almost feel like he gets a pass. And I'm not gonna be that guy that just automatically gives Josh McDaniel's a pass. I'm with you. Listen, if he envisions AJ Brown as this go route big body sideline receiver, it's gonna be a problem. And it's also gonna be a problem because he's so dank hardheaded that we could go 10 games into the season

5:06and he won't make a change. The only thing he'll do is say, AJ Brown, you gotta play better. Like, because I've seen that script play out many times with Josh McDaniel's. I haven't seen the script play out where he's like, you know what, this isn't working. We gotta change things. That part I've never seen from Josh McDaniel. So I'm with you, man, I'm very curious. For me, it's all about where does AJ Brown line up early on? Because I don't, like I said, I just don't think there's gonna be much of a change as the season wears on. Drink up, baby. Fantasy football happy hour is here to get you wins and have some laughs. Matthew Barry here and my podcast, Fantasy Football Happy Hour has the sleepers bust and start to advice you need to win your league. We're diving into the tape, we're crunching the numbers to bring you sleepers bust weekly start to advice, whether you're offending a title or desperately avoiding last place, I've got you covered every single weekday. The bar is open. It's Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Barry, wherever you get your podcasts.

6:07Yeah, obviously I do in season charting for the website. I would, I'd read it in pen right now. AJ Brown's getting charted in week one. For sure, just to see like how he's moving, the success rates and everything. Because I'd be totally willing to just kind of say, I was wrong to be worried about AJ Brown signs a decline if he comes out in week one and looks like himself. But I honestly think the more interesting thing is how he is used because that could lead to just more volatility. And it's just tough sometimes too. Like I think, and by the way, however much concerned I have about AJ Brown in some of the dip in success rates, he's still better player than K-Shombooty. But K-Shombooty is ran like white hot on tight coverage wins from a go-rout perspective. And it helps that Drake May is awesome and could just basically, I mean, he's placing some of those footballs he might as well just like walked it down the field to him. That's obviously going to help AJ Brown. Even if there's less separation, AJ Brown was still damn good on the contested catches

7:07and Drake May is super accurate and really good ball placement on those throws. But sometimes year to year, that stuff can be shaky and volatile. Again, honestly, the prediction here more is about, if I'm worried one of the guys is going to be in the, you know, in the vertical extra-sever role, I actually don't think it's going to be Romeo Dobs. I think he could actually have some sneaky, does this, this is more of a positive Romeo Dobs take than a, sure, maybe a negative, maybe a negative Josh McDaniels take, but I think they could end up being like a positive for Romeo Dobs. Can I, can I, the last thing I'll say about this too, the reason I get a little bit worried is that AJ Brown is a gravitational force. Quarterbacks clearly have felt the need to throw to AJ Brown. Even when he's not open, it's just like, we gotta get AJ Brown, the football. And Matt, tell me if I'm wrong here, but that obviously was not the case in New England last year where they spread the ball around. Drake May, I don't know what kind of passer Drake May is when he has a dominant number one wide receiver,

8:11is he going to have the mentality of like, I have to get the ball to AJ Brown or will he let the offense flow and if AJ Brown is open, we get him, we get him the ball. If he's the first read and he's open, we get him the ball. If he's the second read and he's open, we get him the ball, but otherwise, we're not getting him the ball. What kind of quarterback is Drake May? That's, and again, I think that part of his is a giant unknown and I'm curious how that might play out in New England too. There's just so many interesting things about this trade. And the reality is that it could just be as simple as AJ Brown's one of the best receivers of this era. He had a hamstring last year that kind of affected his play in the early part of the season and easy ice, 29 years old. He's got an injury history, but good player, good player, good receiver, good quarterback, Gober. That's definitely a little to say something I'm too old to say. That's definitely one of the possibilities here. But I also think there's a lot of other potential outcomes here, but yeah, I do think of your overall Romeo dobs

9:12is just the guy that nobody is talking about. And I think it's really developed into a damn good player last year who can beat man press coverage and win some, like really wins at the top of his routes. And that was kind of what Stefan Diggs was doing last year. I think like, it just to me, it sounds more like if one of those guys is going to be playing in a role that looks similar to what Stefan Diggs was last year as like a short and intermediate chain mover in the intermediate middle of the field the whole deal. Like I think that's more so what it seems like Romeo dobs is going to be doing. And I think I could lead to 80 catches this year just really solid production that nobody sees coming. It would be a great bold prediction because Romeo dobs has never had 60 receptions. Oh great. It's a four year career. I'm getting to 80 would be a legitimate bump up for again, over his four year career, he has never had 60 receptions. Topped out at 59 back in 2023.

10:12So again, this would be a true bold prediction and I love it.