[FULL EPISODE] 2026 NFL Season BOLD Calls!

0:00We've got our take-can as loaded and ready. Absolutely dominant on deep routes, absolutely dominant on short routes. We've got our back-backed excellent separation against mancovers. This is reception, reception, that preserves. Yo, what's cracking everybody? James Go, Matt Harmon here with you. Your list of reception, perception, the- Oh. Okay, today it's one of my favorite episodes of the year because today is the bold predictions episode, Matt Harmon. Matt, we've got five bold predictions here. I've seen some of yours. You've seen some of mine and yeah, man, I'm going to say we're pushing the boundaries of logical here and I like it. You know me. I love this kind of stuff. Yeah, I'm looking at yours right now. There's a couple of years that are pretty spicy. So yeah, I can't wait to get into it. All right, man, should we just get going here? You want to hit me with your first bold prediction?

1:00Yeah, first bold prediction here for me was kind of teasing this one on the car cast yesterday or two days ago, was it the actual, was it the live stream draft show that we did where you were in your car? Either way, I was teasing this one a little bit. Zay flowers leads the NFL in receiving yards this season. That would be a pretty big jump for him. He's been incredibly productive over the course of his NFL career. I think he's 11th in yards since he entered the NFL. So he's been really productive receiver in terms of him taking this next step though. The more and more I've thought about this Raven's team, number one, I'm really excited about Declan Doyle's offense. I actually think the more you kind of picture Lamar Jackson's strengths as a player where he's really, I mean, this is honestly at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of his career, he was kind of a guy that was like a little bit pan for

2:03his work outside the numbers. You know, like that was this, oh, he's really good throwing over the middle, but he's not that great pushing the ball deep and outside the numbers, which is funny because like now nobody really wants to push the ball deep and outside the numbers on go outs and things of that nature. We want to be attacking over the middle of the field. Last Lamar Jackson's strength, strength as a passer is pushing it over the middle, which is obviously what they're going to want to do in this Declan Doyle offense, which is going to feel very similar to what they did in Chicago last year. So I think Lamar fits really well in that. He has some kind of, he actually does have at least last year and maybe even the last couple of years has some troubling splits between when he's using play action and when he's not using play action. He's going to be using play action a ton in this offense. So this is kind of a little bit of Lamar Jackson, you know, prediction that I think he features offense really well. But again, the more I've looked at this receiving room, yeah, I think Jacobi Lane's going to play a role. I'm into him being like kind of a sacrificial ex-receiver. You know, we'll see about Rashad Baytman. Obviously we've got off field concerns there.

3:04We have no idea. And he's not been like a consistently targeted player, even when he's been available and been separating in the NFL. So I mean, that just kind of is what it is. Ultimately, the tight end room. I think they are going to try to play a good bit of 12 and 13 personnel, you know, but I don't know that anybody there is going to be a real target commander like Mark Andrews. The reports out of training camp on Mark Andrews haven't been glowing by any means. Matthew Hibner, their fourth round rookie tight ends been getting some pop, but against fourth round rookie tight end Durham. Smith is obviously more of an inline guy who they brought over from Chicago. It's like, how is they flowers not going to run into a 30% target share with this team? You know, that's what happens when you play a lot of heavy personnel overall. So flowers to me, I think is, you know, just set up to get a ton of volume. I think this offense is going to be good. And I think Zay flowers is really, really good who's kind of a guy that's ready to take that fourth year leap after seeing kind of, you know, three straight seasons of really good zone success rate and reception perception. He took a step forward with the 75% success rate versus press last year.

4:07You say he's going to lead the NFL in receiving. What does that number look like? What's the, what is that? 1700 yards. What did what did JSN have last year? I think he led 1700. No. Yeah. Last year JSN had 17, well, I'm going to go ahead 17, 15. JSN 17, 93. So yeah, I mean, is he have like a 17 yard season in him? I think that's certainly possible. You go back to 2024, 1708 is, is Jamar chase led the NFL in receiving yards. You go back to 2023. We had 17, 99 with Tyree Kill. I mean, 17, 99. Obviously, that's aggressive for Jackson Smith and Jigba. I see for JSN did it last year. That's aggressive for Zay flowers, but I do think it's possible. I mean, that like Tyree Kill doing that in that offense. I mean, obviously Tyree Kill's at this point, you know, towards Zay flowers has been. He's not Tyree Kill necessarily, but you know, there's some notes in the player comparison

5:09tool that you would look at and say, hey, you could have a Tyree Kill type of impact. On this Ravens offense, which I mean, I'm taking the March Jackson over to a tongue of Iowa. I'm taking. No, right. When Doyle can be maybe in the Mike McDaniel tears a play car, I will see. So yeah, ultimately, I just think he set up really well to have like an explosive yardage season. And it's like easier to make the yardage prediction with him, obviously, than the touchdown prediction. Okay. I will see your Zay flowers. I will raise you. You say about 1700 yards. I'll try to raise you about 200 here. Yeah. I want to say, I'm on Ross Saint Brown gets to 2000 yards here and just cracks it open. Look, I'm on Rob Saint Brown has been one of the most consistent players in the NFL. I love the fact that he has expanded his usage and role in the NFL as well. We know him as one of the hardest workers in the NFL. And really Matt, I think really what it comes down to for me is when I analyze the Detroit lines, dude, their defense is absolute trash. Yeah. The defense is so bad.

6:10They are going to be caught up in a lot, a lot of shootouts. Their schedule is incredibly light this year. If you're looking for a late round quarterback, I think Jared Goff might be my favorite one. So I'm on Ross Saint Brown bold prediction. 2000 yards for I'm on raw. And you know, it's funny. I don't feel as if like if he gets to 2000, this is a bold prediction. But if he gets to 2000, people be like, Oh, yeah, I'm on Ross Saint Brown for whatever reason because he has just been so incredibly consistent. I mean, he has a 1400 yard season. He's got a 1500 yard season. He's been incredibly consistent. And yet people don't really put him in that like insane statistical tier of like the Jamar Chases and the Justin Jefferson's of the world. I like I'm on Ross Saint Brown. He's just an incredibly good player playing in a good offense, in a good ecosystem attached

7:12to a really bad defense with a really light schedule. I don't know, man, like I'm on Ross Saint Browns to me seems set up to have a really incredible season this year. Yeah. The current NFL record in terms of season yardage is 1964 by former Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. Yeah. Lion and lion here at one and two in your scenario, Cooper Cup is number two, 1947, Julio Jones, 1871, Antonio Brown, 1834 in terms of receiving yardages. Yeah. So I mean, look, that would be an incredible season by Amon Ross Saint Brown. I love the part of your prediction that you mentioned. No, maybe people don't, this would maybe finally allow people to kind of group. I'm on Ross Saint Brown to where I really think he deserves to be grouped. I have a video coming out on the YouTube channel. I think it should be out early next week pretty much making this case about Amon Ross Saint Brown that like we're at a stage where and maybe some of this is just like small sentiment. I have no idea, but you still feel like you see people kind of, I don't know, caveat him

8:14as a top receiver and all that stuff. And like looking at his, well, number one, looking at just his reception, perception, profiles kind of like, I don't know that we really should be doing that anymore. Is he the guy that you want to, in a hypothetical scenario, run a go route as an extra receiver and wind down the football field? No, but pretty much everything else. Hell yeah, I want him to do it. And by the way, guys, like I think if you look at his production since he became a full-time starter in 2022, we're talking about like a Hall of Fame resume. 457 catches since then, which leads the NFL 5,340 yards, which is fourth among wide receivers in that span. He's third in touchdowns with 39. You want to look at like the fancy boy stats. He's seventh in yards per route. Run he's third in first downs per route. He's second in successful targets per route. Like they don't, when they give out the busts and can't and they don't grade it on the

9:15hypothetical scenario of the go route against press man coverage as the extra receiver. They give it to these guys who have bonkers production. And I mean, St. Brown already has bonkers production. And if you put him in the category that you have him, obviously 2,000 yards, like yeah, now I think people would start to kind of come around to the point I make in that video, which is described as the channel. Make sure you watch it when it comes out. I mean, yeah, he looks like a guy that's on path to a Hall of Fame candidacy at this point. Yeah, 2,000 yards were pretty much like now everybody's saying cemented up, but we were saying what we were saying in first for the right. All right. There you go. So yes, bold prediction. I'm on rock. It's a 2k here. All right. Hit me with your second one, pal. All right. Second one here. We'll stick it like this guy's going to have an awesome season. Nico Collins is the wide receiver one overall in fantasy football this season. Nico Collins still goes kind of in the back half of the second round in fantasy drafts. And I think we've kind of talked around the some of the issues this early, some of the

10:16issues that people have with him. One, injuries and you know, what can you say? What can you say about that, right? Like what can you say about the fact that he gets banged up? It is the reality of the situation. He does have to say on the football field for this to happen. But when he's on the football field, I really don't see any hesitation for projecting him this year. I'm not quite sure I get it. Like he's second in yards per routes since he became since C. J. Star. I was drafted in 2023. I think that's important to say since C. J. Star was drafted in 2023 because whenever I put this like stat out that he's second in the NFL in yards per hour on people like, God, we just got to get him a quarterback. Like, who do you think has been the quarterback this whole time? It's not like three Davis Mills games that people obsess over are the ones pushing up the production here. No, it's with it's with C. J. Star out as the quarterback. Obviously, then in isolation, he's, you know, he's even better than that. He's the seventh percentile success rate versus press, 90 second percentile success rate versus man last year. He's one of the true elite, elite press man coverage beaters. And as a pure X receiver, 83rd percentile success rate versus zone, which it's really

11:22hard to be that X receiver and be a consistent over 80 percent success rate versus zone player. But Nico Collins has done it pretty consistently here the last couple of years. And like I mentioned, 89.5% of his snaps as the on ball player last year in our game. RP, we haven't talked about the K. Sean Booty profile, which is, which went up yesterday, excuse me, Monday. God, I have no idea what date is it went up on Monday. There are four players in RP history that have taken 90 plus percent of their snaps outside and on the ball. Two of them were New England Patriots last year, Kyle Williams and K. Sean Booty. So look, while I know, at least I've heard that the Texans don't want to put a lot more in terms of like playing other other positions on Nico Collins's plate. If we just get like him 10% fewer snaps at the X receiver spot because we brought in a sacrificial X here in K. Sean Booty, who I actually think could play better as a receiver anyways, but still like we sometimes sacrifice him at that extra receiver position.

12:23That's how Nico Collins really, really goes to the moon this upcoming season. So I just feel like an also, by the way, last point of this again, when we're talking about, the whole fantasy community has been obsessed with it. Who's going to be the next Jackson Smith and Jigba, right? Who's going to be a really talented player who gets a little bit of a role change, but also plays on a team with all these heavy personnel packages. I know that Nico Collins isn't like fit the, you know, Lad Maconkey bucket or even this A-flowers bucket because he's a little bit farther along in his career, but he has a lot of those peripherals kind of coming this year because I think the Texans after drafting Marlin Klein, adding Foster, Marot and Free Agency, they're going to play a lot more heavy personnel packages. So I feel like Nico Collins is another one of these guys that could get like 30% of his team's targets simply due to a little bit of a role tweak. Dude, I like it. I like it a lot. I'd love to see it. I'm going to stay in the great state of Texas. I will go to Dallas and I think Dak Prescott will have a career year. I'm going to go say Bolt prediction, Dak Prescott gets to 5,000 passing yards here.

13:25Look, again, when we start talking about defenses, you know, I don't think Dallas's defense is very good. Not the worst in the league, but I just don't think they're very good. And Dak Prescott, man, I just, he is set up to have a fantastic season. You're talking about your number two of George Pickens here in this offense, CD Lamb. I think just needs to stay healthy. I mean, that's the thing that's kind of sort of underreported in this Dallas offense, right? Like they had an awesome offense last year and they're arguably their best receiver. CD Lamb was hurt for about half that year, right? Like so I just feel like, man, listen, if you get a healthy season at a CD Lamb and, uh, and Dak and George Pickens, this is an offense that could absolutely go ballistic. So I'm going to say Bolt prediction, Dak Prescott, 5,000 passing yards. There have been 14 seasons where a quarterback has thrown for 5,000 plus yards. By the way, Drew breeze has one, two, three, four, five of them.

14:29Of course he does. By the way, then he's 16th, uh, it with 4,952. So he almost had another one, uh, there on his resume. Yeah. I think this is definitely in play for Dak Prescott. The only thing I would say is, uh, maybe I'm going to want up your Bolt prediction here on this one because I actually think their defense, uh, is going to be good enough. I mean, the bar to clear for being better than what they were last year is, you know, nothing because I think that might be the worst past defense. Now I've been doing reception perceptions since 2014. I think that might be the worst past defense I've ever watched with Dallas Cowboys last year. So like they're already this great offense, totally agree with all of your notes there. I think the defense will be better, uh, this year, which again, low bar to clear action could be pretty much like league average based on kind of my projections this year. So if that's the case, the offense, I totally agree with you is going to absolutely cook. CD lamb. You know, it's been talked out of the Cowboys camp like, oh, maybe George Pickett is going to be the number one this year in CD lamb's going to be the number two. I'm I, I think really the take that there is just like they have the best receiver duo

15:31in the NFL. There's no question about it. I put out there to route success rate charts next to each other on Twitter. It's just, it's just the, the colors, whatever. But zero red routes between the two of them. I think they are probably the only receiver duo that did that last year. Just a couple of studs. The run game, I think it's going to be good. The offense line is awesome. Clay Natems is a dude Brian Shottenheim really took me by surprise last year. I think the Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl this year. They're my, they're, they're my Super Bowl pick for the 2026 NFL seasons. So not, they're not, that was not one of the ones I have on my sheet. But we did file our Super Bowl predictions for you. Let's go. I picked, let's go. Let's pick. Jack Press got to win the MVP this year. So I'm with you. I'm with you on the thought process. Not to one up your bold prediction, but I, but yeah, I think no five thousand yards, but one ring for Jack Press got how about that? One up at all day long. By the way, Dak Press got has a 4,900 yard season. He's got a 4,500 yard, he's got 2, 4,500 yard seasons as well.

16:31So yeah, man, 5,000 yards for, for Dak Press got my goodness gracious. Super Bowl, Super Bowl for the debt. Let's go. You couldn't say that out loud. I've been sitting on that one. I just filed it on Monday in the, in the, in the Google sheet. Haven't told anybody. Haven't told any of my friends or Cowboys fans. Yo, that is awesome. Yeah. Sleeve leaving that one out there. Yes. Super prediction. 226. I will say this. Look, I know they have a lot of scar tissue in the playoffs, but that being said, it's teams like that that again have struggled through the playoffs and, and they, they can lean on a little bit of experience. Whether that experiences could or bad yet to be determined here, but I just, it is those kind of teams that do break through. But yeah, I'm, I'm curious, man, that would be good. They got to stay. Do you know, obviously, do you know one of the reasons I really buy it is, I think Brian Shottenheimer is like the type of guy to get them through that scar tissue. I was just so impressed and I, you know, things I've heard, I'll just,

17:34people I've talked to, I was obviously impressed with them schematically. And I really think the blend between Shottenheimer and, and Clayton Adams was really good in the run in the past game. And then also the other part of this too is just like Brian Shottenheimer was the guy that just could like handle the personalities. Like between whether it's George Pickens or Jerry Jones or, you know, the Cowboys media, like I think he did a really good job with that too. So I think a guy that can like, whether the storm or that trauma, I'm buying the Brian Shottenheimer experience. So yeah, Cowboys Super Bowl in 2026 wasn't one of the ones I planned on on Korken here, but since you brought that up, I'm guessing. What could go wrong? Dallas, trusting the Dallas Cowboys. In the year in the 2000s, right? Like that's not been a good bet. That's not been a good bet since I was like a kid, but here we are. Drink up, baby. Fantasy football happy hour is here to get you wins and have some laughs. Matthew Berry here and my podcast, Fantasy Football Happy Hour, has the sleepers bust and start

18:34to advice you need to win your league. We're diving into the tape. We're crunching the numbers to bring you sleepers. Bust weekly start, sit advice, whether you're defending a title or desperately avoiding last place, I've got you covered every single weekday. The bar is open. It's Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry, wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, my next one is another receiver. One actually went all receivers on this one. Marvin Harrison, Jr., 1100 yards this season. March to 1100. Let's go. That's right. I went back to, you know, one of your old playbooks here. March to 1100 for Marvin Harrison, Jr. Oh, yeah. Man, it is tough. Obviously, this is why it's a bold prediction. It's tough to get there from a math perspective. It's tough to get there from just what's going to happen in the ecosystem. But it is part of that why I'm so excited about this team. Everybody knows I'm Cardinals curious. Check out the YouTube video if you haven't already. It's just like this offense, the more I look at it, the more I think about Michael Floor,

19:36the more I think about the more I think about Nathaniel Hackett, like knowing his role with this team. I keep coming back to this point where people are just like, oh, man, Nathaniel Hackett, he's this big, boogie man. And I agree. Like he was not cut out to be a head coach. I don't even think he was cut out to be a play calling offensive coordinator. But I love this quote that he gave at the press conference, where people were kind of dunking on him for this. But I think it actually makes a lot of sense, where he talked about, they asked him, what's your duties as the non-play calling offensive coordinator? And he just said, hey, I'm here and hang out, whatever. He was joking about that, but then goes into, yeah, I'm here to support Mike. And if he needs something from me, great. But if he doesn't, I'm just going to stay quiet on game day. But I'm just here to support him on game day, as well as putting together the offense during the week. But yeah, that's what he did for his brother, Matt LaFour, and that offense cooked. And I don't think that the Cardinals offense is going to cook necessarily with Jacobi Reset, slightly different quarterback situation. Jacobi Reset, maybe late season Carson Beck, and Aaron Rogers, obviously. But nevertheless, I do think Marvin Harrison is set up to be well

20:42deployed in this offense. I'm still a Marvin Harrison Jr. believer. So give me 1100 yards, bold prediction for Marvin Harrison Jr. And I'm still obviously excited about Michael Wilson, Tramick, Brydon, all these guys. I love that part of your analysis includes that Nathaniel Hackett will actually do nothing. So that's good. To lay the fear when he's called upon he can do something. But for the most part, he's just he's just hanging out. Listen, everybody, everybody has been in that position in their lives when they go one step too far, right? Like I think I'm pretty good at what I do right now. But you know, if you asked me to host college game day or something, I'd be like, well, I'm probably not going to be very good at that, you know, but get me back in my little podcast box with my routes. You know, then I think I'm doing, I think I'm doing all right. Basically with my routes, I think I could, I think I could do that, you know, but if I got promoted into some, I don't know, hosting sports center is something I probably wouldn't be as good at that. I probably would get fired like Nathaniel Hackett got fired. So everybody's sometimes in

21:44that situation. So yeah, please no one reach out to me to host college game day. I know that that was that people were looking forward to that. No, no, thank you. Okay, that was on deck, but you blew it. Okay, I blew it. Oh, well, you blew it. Oh, well, that's okay. I'm going to go a double combo here. I'm going to go to the chargers. I'm going to say Lad's going to get 15 through the air and oh, Marion's going to get 15 on the ground, not 15 total 15 on the ground. So he's going to have a really special season. Lad's going to have a special season. I'm hoping and when we when we think about Mike McDaniel, too, again, when you think about what he did there in Miami, it was highly concentrated, you know, and the way that this offense is set up from a talent perspective, it looks like it could be highly concentrated here as well. So I'm really looking forward to Lad Mekonky being the true number one. Keenan Allen is no longer there. There's no competition for targets there. And the tight end room is really interesting. I know there's been

22:47a ton of talk of like, okay, well, Mike McDaniel loves to throw the tight end and I get it and I agree except for the fact that I just don't know if they've got a guy that's like, do they have a dude who can just be a target sponge? I don't know if they've got that guy. Like I don't think they fully trust a rendez-gadston. David and Joku is a little longer in the tooth and Charlie Colar is a blocking tight end. So I think the tight ends in aggregate will get targets. I just don't think there's a guy there that's like, all right, we have to feed this guy the rock. And that's another area of the field where I again, I just think Lad Mekonky could could truly eat. Again, he's an underrated speed receiver. He can he's got a sub 44440. I think he can get down field too. There's just a lot to like about Lad Mekonky in this offense. I'm going to again, bold prediction. I think he really breaks through classic year three breakthrough for Lad Mekonky 1500 yards through the air. Amari on Hampton. You know what? This is like a three-part bold because

23:50Matt, I have been I have been extolling the virtues of outside run success rates. And by the way, if you want to find some of that data on the site, ReceptionProception.com, I am huge on this. And the more I look into it, the more it is true. Every single time I see a guy who can really get outside and run. Those are the guys that really break through. And Mike McDaniel is known as an outside zone run schema, right? You get his run scheme with a guy like Omarion Hampton who through the charting has proven that he can really get outside. To me, I just I it's like yards per route run has become this like again, very much like leaned upon stat for wide receivers. I think outside run success rates for me is like that stat for running back. Yeah. Yeah. I like it. We need a stat like that for running backs. Because there is I sometimes I feel like I end up sound like a yards per route run hater. Because I think it is two people are too zealous

24:55about it. But it is a really predictive stat. And I think it gets you into the ballpark. Running back it's hard to get into the ballpark with a stat. You know, I end up using like yards after contact or this down the other. So we need it. We need a stat like that for the running reposition. So I dig it. Yeah. Omarion Hampton is such an interesting player. I feel like I feel like I'm going to get four weeks into the season and think like, oh god, I just didn't draft enough. I'm already in Hampton. I just didn't draft for Maureen Hampton. Because and I'll tell you why I feel this way, James, and you're making me nervous about it is that when I've been in the second round of some of my fantasy drafts, you know, sometimes this guy, it's not like a choice between these two players where I pick him over the other. But I do think like when I look at the second round holistically in fantasy drafts, I think why am I drafting Omarion Hampton, hoping he becomes Derek Henry when I can just draft Derek Henry. You know, and I think there's been like no drop off in Derek Henry's game. And the Ravens also believe that too. It's not like they did anything to be like, oh boy, we got to have some Derek Henry

25:55and sure basically like Derek Henry gets hurt. They're screwed. Your boy Adam Randall, like what's he on IR right now? I think he wants fake IR. Yeah, probably on fake IR. You know, you got justice Hill. You got Rashine Ali. Like they're what was the old quote about like why don't they practice with Jim sword G over Peyton Manning because we don't practice F and we're F without Peyton Manning. The Ravens are F without Derek Henry. So I've ended up with a lot of Derek Henry and not a lot of Omarion Hampton. And I am a little nervous that like I'm going to miss out on the Omarion Hampton big breakout and you're making me feel even more nervous about it right now. Yeah, no, listen, I just think it's a marriage that between Mike McDaniel and Omarion Hampton that I get really, really excited about. So again, an outside run schema getting together with a guy that really knows how to get outside. Man signed me up again, 1500 through the air for Lad 1500 on the ground for a lot with the on the hockey one there. There's no no question about that. I think this guy can go crazy this year. You just got to stay healthy and he's a perfect, perfect fit in that

26:59offense. He's a perfect fit with Justin Herbert. I don't know if I've talked about God, I'm really in losing track of like did I talk about it on this show? Did I talk about as I was reading off the case on booty outside on the line of scrimmage tests. I'm like, did I read that off on Monday? Did I say that on Monday? I have no idea. But I was going to say was I don't know if I said this on this show or not, but actually going back and watching the keen and Alan stuff. It made me even, it made me feel even more confident in my opinion that the idea that keen and Alan mauged Lad Makonky is stupid from last year because like that's a take I see out there from folks. I kind of think I already kind of, so maybe I'm confirming my priors, but I already kind of thought it was stupid. I definitely think it's stupid after watching the film because there's so clearly like even in the offense last year trying to set Lad Makonky up for explosive plays on these big breaking routes, outbreakers, dig routes over the middle of the field. And they just couldn't hold up in protection. So the ball found keen and Alan consistently because he was open to his credit still at this point of square open and just kind of hanging out there on the

28:02third like my buddy Hayden Winks that guy who's compared him to like the old man and the why who would just like would post up dudes, you know, like on the third down marker essentially. That's kind of what you did last year. So you know, there was a lot of that. I think Lad as long as the offense of Lyon can hold up, which are they already deal with injuries centers out for the season. They're still sitting here saying we're not sure who's going to start at left guard. There's a game in like nine days folks. Let's let's go ahead and figure that out. That does make me a little nervous, but as long as the tackles are out there, I think Lad can really go crazy this year. All right. I love it. All right. Hit me. All right. I made this one actually bolder as we were talking because I was looking at the number and thinking, I don't know if this is bold enough, but I wanted to find a take here. I could talk about Jalen Coker, but also not talk down Teter O. Mcmillan. Jalen Coker and Teter O. Mcmillan's end of season yardage has a less than 100 yard gap. So I think that's bold enough based on from a, I mean, listen, from a fantasy football perspective, you know, Teter O. Mcmillan goes in a good range. I like taking T Mac, you know, kind of in that

29:06fourth round, but he is the wide receiver 18 in ADP right now over the last seven days on Yahoo, Jalen Coker is wide receiver 66. So you guys can do the math on the back of your hands there. That's going to go ahead and say there's not going to be a 100 yard gap between the two guys. I'm going to say there is a less than 100 yard gap between these two guys. I think that Teter O. Mcmillan is in set up for a really nice season this year. I think Jalen Coker is set up for a really nice season as well. This to me just looks like one of those teams where there's just not going to be a third pass catcher super involved. You know, the third receiver is Xavier Ligette who has been a little banged up in the off season. There are other receivers on this roster and he's obviously Xavier Ligette. He's been in the consistent player so far. Let's be real. Yeah. I think you could be like a useful number three receiver, you know, at a non embarrassing number three receiver, but that's about the best I can hope for for Ligette based on both his prospect profile. We'll be saw from him early in his career. You look at the rest of the receivers on the roster. It's like John Mechie, Jimmy Horn Jr. who's like a speedy leverage creator that I'd honestly like to see

30:07a little bit more of to get these two guys, you know, favorite will matchups and then Bryson Tremaine who I like me. Some Bryson Tremaine is like a sick pup blocking receiver, but okay, blocking receiver. He's not going to get a lot of targets. I think that Chuba Hubbard is useful in the past game. Jonathan Brooks who may be an explosive element in the past game, but neither of those guys are going to be like Christian McCaffery or Beigeon Robinson and catch a bazillion footballs. The tight end room is kind of a collection of dudes, right? It's Darren Waller, you know, who's maybe your age. Actually, probably he's younger than me. So that was stupid of me to say. Jotavy Sanders, Mitchell Evans, like nobody here that's going to come in a bunch of targets. I feel like these two guys are going to get 50% of the targets. And again, this is nothing negative on Macmillan at all, but I think the talent between the two guys is pretty damn close, even though one was the eighth overall pick and one was a UDFA. I still really love my analogy of, you know, Teterola Macmillan is Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to Jalen Coker. That's where I stand on that one.

31:10Teterola Macmillan averaged about 60 yards per game last year. We're hoping that one goes up because he had just barely over a thousand yards. Jalen Coker played 11 games. It could not crack 400 yards, but in the games that he did play averaged about 36 receiving yards per game. So I don't know, man, we'll see. This one, that one is very cool. You don't like this one at all, basically. Can I, can I, can I make a plea for myself here, though, on this one? Number one, I think that you have to with this Panthers, remember, you got to include the playoff game. It's a game that happened, you know, okay, okay. It's a game that happened. Also with Coker, you know, remember about this time last year, you know, we went from National Jalen Coker day after Adam Thielin was traded to, you know, I was going to throw my phone off the top of the mountain and the Shannon Doe, you know, mountains there on my end of summer trip last year because we got the news that he went on IR with the quad injury. Yeah, he was not, at least from what I have been told,

32:14wasn't really himself until like December, you know, of last year. So that's important to, to remember just to caveat the production for these guys. And I'm doing the, I'm totally just doing a random split here. Okay, so I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm narrative scouting on this one. That's fine. You know, maybe just doing this to fit my priors, whatever. But if you go from December on last year, December on last season in terms of the yards per game for these guys, it's still obviously going to favor Tetero McMillan. But it's actually, it does not December on last year, James co 60.8 yards per game, for Jalen Coker, 53.8 for 10. A second, if you include the second number on. So, okay, 30 targets for Coker, 31 from McMillan, 15 for Zay really get like, this is what this team was at the end of last year. I kind of think this is what it's going to look like this year. Okay. Okay, I like it. Well, he's going to have to crack it like be like he was in the playoffs, we had nine receptions for 134 yards last year

33:20against LA. So I don't know, we'll find out, man. I like this is a masterclass in bold prediction folks, by the way, because I, I'm not saying anything negative about McMillan. And I didn't even have to talk about like positivity for the quarterback, because it's just whatever the end of season, yardages, it's going to be less than 100 yard gap. That means I'm not saying, you know, it's going to be good or bad, it just on your yard. Yeah, that's it. We're, we're threatening the yield, dude. I like it. But it's good. Yes, this is surgical, that's surgical right here. Okay, I will go to Houston. And I will say David Montgomery, well, most of our bold predictions are of the positive. This one will be, I have a few negative ones, just to again, balance everything out. David Montgomery under 750 yards total, not rushing total. I think David Montgomery in Houston is going to be an abject disaster. I think we're going to get about halfway through the season and realize that David Montgomery is a washed and be can't run behind a bad offensive line,

34:22which Houston has. So for me, David Montgomery under 750 yards, I think Woody marks, maybe this is like a two-parter, but I think Woody marks ends up being a much better, more productive running back than David Montgomery. Dude, what am I, am I, am I wrong? Like, am I, am I just doing like the whole confirmation bias, but like Woody marks looks good in the preseason running that. He does. I'm going to have you maybe try to trash one of my fantasy moves right now. Last night in the Yahoo fantasy, I was, you know, needed kind of a running back. I took my Washington as my running back, you know, three just to get a little spicy with it. No, that's good. But my running back four, I was sitting there staring between Aaron Jones and Woody marks and I went with Aaron Jones and I was so really, I was embarrassed how torn I was between the two guys. Did I make a mistake in going with Aaron Jones over Woody marks? Because yeah, I kind of like believe that Woody marks

35:22is going to play a role in this backfield. I don't know if it's a mistake. I totally get where the the hesitation comes from because by the way, like there's a pretty decent chance that Aaron Jones actually is the starter there in Minnesota, right? Yeah. It's not like they've like ruled him out. It's not like they're like, oh yeah, he's done. It's not like he's, they're like, hey, he's washed. It's like, yeah, we wish we had a better running back. But Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are going to be fighting for that lead role. So I don't know, man, like I hear where you're going. I just like the upside. I'm always an upside chaser guy. I know you're an upside guy, but yeah. So I'm always going to be chasing that upside. So if I was in your spot, obviously I'm going with Woody marks, but no, I think the value there is about the same because things have to happen for Woody marks to be the lead. Nothing really has to happen for Aaron Jones to be the lead. You know what I mean? Right. Like he just has to be, he, well, yes, which is not going to happen. He has to stay healthy, you know, in age what like 33 season or whatever this is for Aaron Jones.

36:29So yeah, that's the unfortunate part of it. But he still is like a really effective runner. Jordan Mason actually was, and by the way, I like Jordan Mason this year kind of as a late, I don't know how you feel about Jordan Mason, but I do kind of like him as a scramble, or not a scramble, or like a late round pick in fantasy this year, the whole deal. I do like him overall, but he was super efficient last year, but so was Aaron Jones. Like he was pretty effective last year, just on a per carry basis and everything like that. So yeah, I still kind of want to, I believe that Aaron Jones could come out and give me some games this year. But anyways, the point on Woody Marx is that from a, from a Dave Montgomery standpoint, I know you're super skeptical there. Yes, I am incredibly skeptical of David Montgomery. So I don't know. We'll find out. All right. Hit me. Okay. Next one for me and final one, the most boring one. I saved the most boring one for last.

37:33Okay. Romeo Dobbs catches 80 plus passes this season. I am really, honestly, again, to bring up the K-Shambuity and the Kyle Williams profile, I'm really spooked about the Patriots offense a little bit. Not that I think they're going to be bad this year, but just the design of like who is playing the extra seat for spot in this, in this offense. And you know, Romeo Dobbs was an X last year for the, for the Green Bay Packers, but he wasn't necessarily a vertical X. And I think everybody is going to acknowledge Romeo Dobbs is not like really a vertical threat. Yeah, I, I look at the whole just structure of the passing game right now. And every report out of camp is that Romeo Dobbs is going to kind of be like they're, they talk about him more as the slot option versus AJ Brown being the slot option. I would be a little bit shocked. A little bit shocked if we ended up seeing AJ Brown is, you know, in the K-Shambuity Kyle Williams mold of 90% outside on the

38:37Linus Grimage and, you know, 30, 30.4, 34.4% go route percentage for K-Shambuity last year. Oh, God. That was the third highest in any season I have ever charted. Guess who number five was Kyle Williams. Like it is really crazy when you look at just how sacrificial those, maybe Kyle Williams is their sacrificial exes here. I don't know, but it hasn't sounded like he's, you know, a top fully receiver necessarily on the depth chart, although he's balled out in preseason. He's been making some of those sacrifices look pretty good because like he basically just catches a go route bomb every single preseason game. I looked back at this and, you know, I started charting RP in 2014 and, you know, to be frank, there haven't been like a ton of, you know, number like outside receivers to chart in the New England Patriots often. So over that span, I went back to like Chris Hogan who was kind of a 60, 40 outside slot. So I don't know if that

39:38really counted. Brandon Cooks was, you know, back in 2017. He was not deployed this way. So that's interesting. But then I looked at, and I don't have a data for these guys, but I looked at PFF data. 2021 Nelson Aguilar ran a go route on 34% of his routes that year. 2019 Philip Dorset, 33% of his routes that year were go routes. Nelson Aguilar was outside on 92% of his routes in 2021. Like is this just what Josh McDaniels does with his extra receiver? I mean, in fairness, he didn't, he didn't really, this is not how Dante Adams was used with the Las Vegas Raiders. But at least some of these examples are interesting to me. And it just makes me a little nervous about, I think I'm nervous about like does AJ Brown good stuck in that role? And that to me is more problematic than the any sort of, and obviously I am a little worried about the signs of decline. We saw last year. And I think it's going to make it look worse. Like I think that would make it look worse if AJ Brown is in that role. I'm hoping that, and I'm really, you know, I'm hoping that I'm

40:39just overthinking it. And this is not so static. But let's just say it is. And even if it's not that static, I still think Romeo Dobbs is actually like nobody cares. Nobody's talked about Romeo Dobbs. But I think he's actually set up really well to be the clear cut number two in this offense. Drake may as a dude. His routes fit Drake may really well. I think Romeo Dobbs is going to come out here and have us pretty surprising. See, I think AJ Brown can still be good. But I think Romeo Dobbs going to have a pretty surprising season this year. Is there anything in Josh McDaniels profile that suggests that he can get creative as the season goes along? I don't think so. I think what we see in early season is going to be indicative, very indicative of what we see late in the season. And the other thing I'll say about Josh McDaniels too is, yeah, I just don't know, I don't know how creative he is, you know, and you could make the case that he just hasn't had a good collection of wide receiver. So what's the point of getting creative with the routes? But more of a reason to be creative. That's also a great point, man. That's also a great point. But I don't know, like I know

41:45Josh McDaniels has built his entire career on the bones of New England and Tom Brady and all those things. But I don't know, man, like I said, like him away from Tom Brady, are we that sure that he is a guy like I almost feel like he gets a pass. And I'm not, I'm not going to be that guy that just automatically gives Josh McDaniels a pass. I'm with you. Listen, if he envisions AJ Brown as this go route big body sideline receiver, it's going to be a problem. And it's also going to be a problem because he's so dank hardheaded that we could go 10 games into the season and he won't make a change. The only thing he'll do is say AJ Brown, you got to play better. Like because I've seen that script play out many times with Josh McDaniels. I haven't seen the script play out where he's like, you know what, this isn't working. We got to change things. That part I've never seen from Josh McDaniels. So I'm with you, man. I'm very curious. For me, it's all about where does AJ

42:50Brown line up early on? Because I don't, like I said, I just don't think there's going to be much of a change as the season wears on. Yeah, obviously I do in season charting for the website. I would, I'd read it in pen right now. AJ Brown's getting charted in week one. For sure, just to see like what he move, how he's moving, you know, the success rates and everything, you know, because I'd be totally willing to just kind of say, you know, I was wrong to be worried about AJ Brown signs of decline. If he comes out in week one and looks like himself, but I honestly think the more interesting thing is how he is used because that could lead to just more volatility. And you know, it's just tough sometimes too. Like I think, and by the way, like, you know, however, how are much concerned I have about AJ Brown and some of the dip and success rates? He's still better playing with K-Shombooty, but K-Shombooty is ran like white hot on tight coverage wins from a go-rout perspective. And it helps that Drake may as awesome and could just basically, he's placed in some of those footballs, he might as well just like walked it down the field to him. You know,

43:52that's obviously going to help AJ Brown, even if there's less separation, AJ Brown was still damn good on the contested catches and Drake may as super accurate and really good ball placement on those throws, but you know, sometimes year to year that stuff can be shaky and volatile. Again, honestly, the prediction here more is about, if I'm worried one of the guys is going to be in the, you know, in the vertical extra-sever role, I actually don't think it's going to be Romeo dobs. I think he could actually have some sneaky, this is more of a positive Romeo dobs take than a, sure, maybe a negative, maybe a negative Josh McDaniels take, but I think they could end up being like a positive for Romeo dobs. Can I, can I, the last thing I'll say about this too, the reason I get a little bit worried is that AJ Brown is a gravitational force like quarterbacks clearly have felt the need to throw to AJ Brown. Even when he's not open, it's just like, we got to get AJ Brown the football and Matt, tell me if I'm wrong here, but that obviously was not the case in New England last year where they spread the ball around. Drake may, I don't know

44:54what kind of passer Drake may is when he has a dominant number one wide receiver. Is he going to have the mentality of like, I have to get the ball to AJ Brown or will he let the offense flow? And if AJ Brown is open, we get him, we get him the ball. If he's the first read and he's open, we get him the ball. If he's the second read and he's open, we get him the ball, but otherwise, we're not getting him the ball. What kind of quarterback is Drake may? That's, and again, I think that part of is, is a giant unknown and I'm curious how that might play out in New England too. There's just so many interesting things about this trade, you know, and the reality is that it could just be as simple as AJ Brown's one of the best receivers of this era. He had a hamstring last year that kind of affected his play in the early part of the season and, you know, easy ice, 29 years old. He's got an injury history, but good player, good player, good good receiver, good quarterback Gober. You know, I mean, that's definitely, to say something I'm too old to say. That's definitely one of the possibilities here, but I also

45:58think there's a lot of other potential outcomes here, but yeah, I do think over all Romeo Dobs is just the guy that nobody is talking about. And I think it's really developed into a damn good player last year who can beat man press coverage and win some, like really wins at the top of his routes. And that was kind of what Stefan Diggs was doing last year. I think like, it just to me, it sounds more like if one of those guys is going to be playing in a role that looks similar to what Stefan Diggs was last year is like a short and intermediate chain mover in the intermediate middle of the field, the whole deal. Like I think that's more so what it seems like Romeo Dobs is going to be doing. And I think I could lead to 80 catches this year, just really solid production that nobody sees coming. It would be a great bold prediction because Romeo Dobs has never had 60 receptions. No great. It's a four year career. I'm getting to 80 would be a legitimate bump up for again, over his four year career, he has never had 60 receptions topped out at 59

47:01back in 2023. So again, this would be a true bold prediction. And I love it. Okay, I'm going to close out the show here with a couple of negative ones here. I feel like the Debbie Downer of the two of us. Okay, chiefs, I say failed to make the playoffs again, the AFC West is pretty stacked and loaded. They did nothing to address their wide receiver room in any meaningful way. Their quote unquote number one wide receiver was rehabbing in jail. Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a late season ACL. And the questions and the whispers of the game passing by Andy Reed are getting louder by the day. So I will say the chiefs failed to make the playoffs this year. I will in addition to that say green Bay will finish last in the NFC North. And Packer fans are going to get really mad at me for this one. But I think when you trade away the town that you have traded away,

48:02Michael Parsons is again, you know, not going to be available early. And when your passing game is attached to two guys that have had difficulties staying on the football field in Christian Watson and Jade and Reed. Hey, and listen, there is no bigger Jade and Reed fan than this guy right here. I love Jade and Reed. Maybe this guy right here. I don't know. Yeah, either way. This is a pro Jade and Reed podcast. What are you doing here? Yes, you know, but that being said, we have to be honest about the situation. The guy gets hurt. You know, Christian Watson gets hurt a lot. I could see a scenario where and this is where the bull prediction comes in. I could see a scenario where both of those guys miss exorbitant amount of time. And and and LaFlore just you know me. I'm not a big LaFlore guy. I think LaFlore will struggle to figure out ways to get to scheme guys open. And I could see an absolute scenario where Green Bay absolutely falls apart this season. In a lot of

49:06ways, I actually, I don't even know if it helps or hurts Jordan love, but I'm curious to see what how this might impact somebody like Jordan love because I think it's fair to say the football community is unsure of what Jordan love is as a player. Like is this guy actually good? Is he actually a stud? Because I tell you what, there are games where he looks like a top five quarter back in the NFL. And there are other games where you're like, okay, this guy's just been schemeed up his entire career. Like, you know what I mean? So like, I'm I'm I'm very curious to see how this might impact Jordan love. And I think this will be the season where we really truly as a football community figure out. And I do listen, there's a lot of packer fans that are just just going to be irate about this. Like what does Jordan love have to do to prove that he's in a lead quarterback? It's like, I get it. I understand that that narrative is out there. I'm just saying it's it's I think from a football community as a whole. I just I don't know if we figured out what Jordan

50:08love is as a player yet. So this will be the year that we figure out whether it is Jordan love being an absolute stud or not. Yeah, I'm with you on the Chiefs one. I just really their division is so tough. And I'm just not really sure where they are as a team right now. Of course, are the chiefs they could be graded. You know, nobody would be surprised by that. But that's why it's a bold prediction. The packers one is so interesting because their division is also really tough. Like, Lyon's what's funny there actually it's a lot of offense with questionable defense except Minnesota, which might be the opposite of that. I tend to think that the Vikings will end up finishing forward in the packers will be third just because I think this offense could really go crazy. Like I am very much a there's a small movement. You know, it's not as big as the the let Russ cook. But I am there's a little bit of like let love cook going on on the internet right now. I'm definitely in the let love cook like let's see what he's got. And I kind of think him calling plays in the second half of that preseason game was pretty bullish towards that regard. But to your to your point about the receiver room. It is definitely well taken. Jayden Reed played with an injury

51:12played through I mean, you know, it's brutal right like that whole thing. That that played we played with an injury last year and then got hurt and then you know, it's just like a law season for him. Obviously, Christian Watson's had injury problems. The rest of the receivers like even saving on Williams is on IR designated to return. He's not starting the season. Bo Melton is back as a receiver after moon lighting as a cornerback last year. My old friend Skymore is on the roster. I mean, he might be the Christian Watson. Jayden Reed go down to be like Matthew golden and Skymore. Even I'm not even I'm not doing the like the nonsense I do with like John Dotson. We're like, I got the can I don't have the candle lit for Skymore to be honest with you guys. Jay Michael Sturda I mean, rookie classic Packers rookie 6307 out of Florida. Yeah, he's a guy that's on the roster. So it is pretty light in that receiver room right now. They suffer one injury. God forbid too. Love's not going to be doing a lot of cooking, even if they want him to be doing it. Yeah. So

52:16again, bold prediction. Some negative ones there, but that's okay. Well, we got a pretty good show here today. Bold predictions is my favorite episode of the year. How many of these will come true? I'm not sure, but that's the great thing about bold predictions. It kind of sort of I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but hey, listen, nothing but positivity. Nothing but positive upside rule with bold predictions is the the hard and fast rule is if you get it wrong, it's just a bold prediction. Don't worry about it. If you get it even close to right, you don't even have to be very right. You get to take that picture, you're a big boy. Just let's go. Sometimes when you're me, let's go. You say you say on football through one at the Super Bowl last year, the Jackson Smith, the jig was going to leave the NFL receiving arts and you get it right and you get to remind people at least once a month for the rest of eternity. Two hell yeah, let's go. So I don't think I'm going to get any of these ones right, but we'll see. I don't know. I don't know, man. I think I like the Marvin Harrison one. I like the Jalen Coker one now as well. I wasn't in on it, but now

53:17I'm now. You look at the numbers, James. Yes, we have. We have. All right. So there you go. Anyways, great show. As always, go to ReceptionPerception.com to go check out the latest profiles from Matt, myself, and Alfredo Brown. But we got to go from Matt Harmon. I'm James Kelle. We'll see him, but remember, it's never too late to chase your dreams. Peace.