Revisiting the Oil Shock from Iran, Hyperliquid’s Edge, and U.S. Inflation Risks

In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the move in oil matters for markets, inflation expectations, and the Fed. We discuss how a headline-sensitive geopolitical risk premium has made oil the key macro transmission channel again, why the duration of any supply disruption matters, and what that could mean for bitcoin if this evolves from a short-lived shock into a longer war of attrition. We also explore why crypto-native venues like Hyperliquid have benefited from weekend price discovery in oil and other macro assets, and why we think open interest matters more than raw volume when judging the durability of Hyperliquid’s moat. Finally, we lay out the key BTC levels and trading scenarios for the week ahead: why $73K remains the pivotal breakout zone, how negative gamma around $75K could accelerate a move toward $80K if reclaimed, and why we continue to favor trading the reaction at key levels rather than blindly front-running moves.

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