Poilievre’s future in focus after byelection results

0:00Let's talk about politics, federal politics specifically, and the conservative party. Lots of people calling these recent bi-elections, there was three of them, all three went liberal. People calling that a shocking, devastating, massive, serious blow to Pierre Poliev and the federal conservatives. What did they do from here? How do they change course? Nelson Weisman is professor emeritus in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and joins me now. Thanks for being here, Nelson. I appreciate your time this morning. Very good, Scott. Do you think that the federal conservatives need a new leader? No. I don't. Okay. And why do you believe that Pierre Poliev is still the person to lead them? The main challenge to the conservatives is that they haven't shown stability.

1:00Look, after every election, and even before an election, they start talking about replacing their leader. Consider this. One of the most successful conservative leaders was John Deven Baker. He ran and lost six consecutive elections before he even got elected. So and the other thing is we're not going to have an election till 2029. We may not have one until 2030. Can't go beyond 2030. Look how far out that is. So all kinds of things change. There are reasons why Pierre Poliev has been bleeding support. And there are reasons in my opinion why he ran the wrong kind of campaign and how some

2:00of his behavior has been since. However, he's not in control of what's going on and what's going on. And because of that, you know, look, people like Karni and Trump are in charge of what's happening in their countries. The leader of the opposition isn't the time. The leader of the opposition gets a lot of attention and a lot of support is when people are uncomfortable or disgusted with the government. We're not at that stage yet because as everybody knows what's happening in our relationship with the United States. And Pierre Poliev isn't in a position to do anything about it. You mentioned that he has been bleeding support and there are reasons for that. What are some of those reasons? Well, there are a lot of nervous nellies in the conservative caucus and in the party

3:02more broadly. They get hung up on the daily polls. They start freaking out. Hey, she we're down. We need a new leader is if that's a magic wand, not necessarily because there isn't an election on the horizon right now. So you just can't act on that. Okay. And then you also mentioned that and I agree with you that the state of the country is based on the current leader that Pierre Poliev isn't involved in these negotiations with Donald Trump. Do you think would be different if he was the leader and was negotiating with Trump? Would we have a trade deal and what do you think that could look like? I don't think any he would have any cards any more than carnitas. I mean, Trump is the actor. All that Canada can do is react. No, I'm not saying that's bad.

4:03Depends how you react. If you're assuming Pierre Poliev would have rolled over, I don't agree. I don't think he would have because he falls to the polls too and he sees that the liberals are very popular. So he's lying low right now and I think that'll continue for a while. Yeah, and I do agree with that. I don't think that he would have done any differently or any better and I do think that to your point, Pierre Poliev would act of course in the best interest of Canadians. I'm not in any way suggesting that he would have done any worse than Mark Carney. I think that you're exactly right. Donald Trump is bullying and Canada has to do what Canada has to do and I'm glad that we're doing that. I suppose that there is this idea and I get what you're saying, right? If we keep changing leaders, nobody ever really gets to sort of set the tone and build

5:06their brand and build something for themselves. What would Pierre Poliev need to do over the next number of years to get support back and to endear himself to Canadians? Well, first let me say what's remarkable in my opinion is how well the conservatives under Poliev did in last year's election. He only had 2% less of the vote than the liberals. What does Pauliev have to do now? I mean right now, there anywhere between 20 and 30% behind the liberals are no anywhere between 10 and 20% behind the liberals. That's huge. That means if we had an election now, the liberals would win. Who knows, maybe 250 of the seats out of the 343. So what does he have to do? In my opinion, hold your fire.

6:07Be constructive when that would be the case. Don't spend your time attacking Karin's personal integrity, which the conservatives have been doing is if he's in on it, he's on the tape because he was present at the Brookfield, yes, Karin is rolling in money and I assure you that going into politics doesn't increase his wealth. He's quite principled and very respected. He's much more respected by Trump than Pauliev is. In fact, Trump at one point during last year's election said, all Pauliev isn't a Maga guy. Whatever the hell that would mean in Canada. And it's because of Karin's credentials. So just stick to making positive contributions in terms of public policy. Online alternatives, things you think might work better.

7:11And actually that used to be the tone in the House of Commons. If you go back, I would say 100 years ago, but everything's changed. People are performing for television or worse, they're performing just to get a one-liner out on some social media channel. And that can work in certain situations, but that isn't the case in Canada now. Where there is a sense of crisis. And the reason you need to be patient is because this will pass one way or another. And two, three years from now, other issues will come back. They'll be at the fore. Affordability, inflation, there might be a recession. People will hang that on the government. So I'm saying don't be like an attack bulldog in the House. It's not the time for that. Nelson Weissman is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Political Science at the University

8:13of Toronto. I really appreciate the measured response. Nelson, thanks so much for being with us this morning. Have a great rest of your morning. You as well, Scott.