Nick Wright’s BEST NFC over/unders PREDICTIONS + Los Angeles Clippers CRUSHED by NBA penalties

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer. It's one of the many new drinks out now. Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire? Try them all only at McDonald's. College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the Sullivan-Verbal College football show. Ty Hildembrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week we preview the games that matter in the story lines that are going to ignite your group chat. And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again. Listen to the Solid Verbal College football show on the I Heart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league.

1:01I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcasts on the I Heart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Bobby Beones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle. Every Wednesday, on our podcast, lots to say with me, Bobby Beones, and Matt Castle. You're in training camp, and the rookie quarterback has one good throwing session in front of the media. Suddenly, everybody online says he should start over your week one. How do you handle this? You just go back out to practice the next day and wait for him to mess up. Listen to lots to say with Bobby Beones and Matt Castle on the I Heart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, man. Watch right in the great episode 497.

2:01This episode of Watch Right in the Great is presented to you by our friends at Boost Mobile. And we have a new, very important sponsor that we will discuss in just a moment. But the only thing more important than our new sponsor is the return of Demons A, who had a bit of a summer break, but turned to leave. Plus, this is real adulthood stuff of like, oh man, my soon to be one year old is now in daycare. Both parents are back at work. Oh wait, she got sick because every little kid or baby gets sick because of daycare because kids are sick. And then because of that, she can't go to daycare anymore. But we both have jobs. What do we do? And so, it's just the job. I will say we got a lot of support around us. We got through. We were able to job the baby off for a couple of days. Couldn't take any more days off, but we got through it.

3:01Right. No. And so that's the, but this is, you know, this is kind of, you know, the different steps, you know, of life and evolution as a parent. And it also, it is a reminder of how tough that can be for folks out there, young parents out there who don't live around any family. Yeah. And it's like, what are we going to, like, what are we going to do? Like someone's going to, you're going to use your own sick days on your kid sick days. But then when you actually get sick, you got to go to work like that stuff is real life stuff and it can be, can be like legitimately hard. Luckily, a beautiful baby Myla's mom's family is at least in the general vicinity of where you guys are. Or else, you know, beautiful baby Myla's father's family, most notably father's mother was going to fly to Los Angeles. Which is itching to do anyway. But it's great to have you back. Good to see you. You look wonderful. Wonderful. And we are coming up on a couple show milestones as Thursday show a week from today, the which will be us reacting to Ram C Hawk.

4:14I'm sorry, that's not accurate. C.O.X Patriots. I knew it was the Super Bowl rematch. And so I thought about the real Super Bowl, which was Ram C.O.X. We'll be reacting to next Thursday morning to see ox Patriots and that will be episode 500. Because today's 497 Fridays will be 498 Tuesdays 499 episode 500 will be on Thursday to start. God, I don't know our fifth football season, sixth football season together doing the show. So that's exciting. We are also, I think like 3200 people away on YouTube from a quarter of a million YouTube subscribers. And so that'll be a nice milestone when we hit that as well. They won't send you a plaque for that one, but it's still pretty cool. A quarter of a million. So all that happening. Also real quick before we get to the show, I would like to give, and you can help us get there by the way by subscribing to the show on YouTube spots. I would like to give a congratulations if I may to someone who's never been on the show, but is someone who my very first ever audition on air on

5:28edition audition at Fox Sports and call it gosh November of 2015 was sitting across the table from this guy Peter Schrager with a new show on ESPN starting I think next week. Shout out to Schrager very happy for me deserves it. He's awesome with and I love Shrakes. I think everybody loves Shrakes with that said I do have to read you guys something about how this show was described because I am while I'm very happy for Shrakes. I am, you know, I think considering I can't believe I can't find this right now. I'm not going to say I'm considering a lawsuit, but I, you know, I've alerted my attorneys because this is how if I can find it gosh darn it.

6:29I should have had this up before. Here it is found it from Ryan Glass-speagles sports media reporter. Believe the new Shrager show is going to be indicative of the post debate here at ESPN, the goal being chemistry and fun not trying to win the argument. Hey, I fucking admit it that guys. That's my for that's first things first. That's our thing. Just so everybody knows I don't do I get do do me bro. I was get royalties on it chemistry fun not trying to win arguments. I tell you this much you bring out some trumpets on that new show Shrakes. I'm storming the castle like that's our thing. And by the way, I'm all for trying to win the argument. I wanted the show to be competitive sports debate. I was told that wasn't going to work had to be a fun hang now everyone's trying to do a fun hang. That's our thing. I'm telling you right now that's our thing.

7:31But congratulations. I'm happy for it sincerely. He's a great dude and is awesome at what he does. All right straight to voice mail brought to you by boost mobile. Stan Cronkey is going to buy the angels. So now he owns the Rams the nuggets the avalanche arsenal the rapids and MLS the mammoth in the national lacrosse league. And so that's why Daniel he didn't have the money for Peyton Watson. Sorry he's got to buy the angels already marano out. US open is going on. I'm yet I was supposed to go last night. Demons a car in town. I was supposed to meet him there. I couldn't go. Carm did how everything are dear friend Mark Carmen from Chicago does great media on CHU and Chicago. He did however leave the US open come to dinner with your mom and I sleep on the couch just like the old days. Before he got out of town and I'll be at the US open on Saturday will be the first day I go and Chris fallen roast less.

8:31Recouping on a yacht which was a pretty cool video and a pretty nice yacht and nice little retirement for them. Look at that. That is that's a lead. All right. We have a ton to get to today or NFC over unders. I want to revisit just quickly a bit of a Josh Allen discussion and we have huge clippers news obviously before we do any of that and announcement. As you can see in the top right hand note right hand corner of the screen. See the polymarket logo our new predictions market sponsor is polymarket now. Let me say this I am. I have real connect connection to polymarket in multiple ways way number one. I have been a long time partner with splash sports you guys from and their survivor contest you guys remember last year we had the what's right survivor league on splash sports they're not running that back this year only because they're putting all of their not all of it but most of their attention to.

9:37Their big survivor contest that has a guaranteed prize pool of 21 million dollars. So in theory if there's one winner it's a thousand bucks an entry so it ain't cheap but if there's one winner they walk away with 21 million bucks if there's seven winners they each get three million bucks you guys can do the math there. Polymark or splash sports is partnered with polymarket um so that's super cool because I've been partnered with splash sports for a very long time. I love those guys TJ and those guys they do an awesome job and they are coming to become the biggest survivor you know low cow in the world and the 21 million survivor guarantee helps in that. So that's super sick as far as my connection polymarket second connection one of my buddies who I I haven't played cards with them because he plays in the biggest games in the world but I had dinner with him. I've hung with him he is friends with a lot of my friends I have called card games that he was playing in was one of the early investors in polymarket and one of the reasons I think he went from elite high stakes poker player to just general super rich guy was because he was an early investment in polymarket.

10:56So shout out to my buddy who was early on that and then last but not least and this is the part that's important for you guys because I think there's a little confusion on people like how do predictions markets work. You guys have heard me talk for years I call it like my you know sports betting or whatever consortium the group chat that I'm in that trades futures. You guys have heard me talk about how you know we would for years you know it and I got maybe I don't want to I don't want them any gaming commission to come after me on this but I think this is all above board it's all but we for years dating back to pre-COVID all of us would text each other like hey I'm eight bid on this and these teams their futures super bowl winner NBA. And whatever would trade like stocks that is exactly the business model the prediction markets have and so I say that to say this I think for some of you who have just now become familiar with what would be considered more traditional sports betting don't understand the similarities or differences between that and the prediction markets.

12:19I think I would do my best to be your translator on that and to explain it but there are new predictions market sponsor to Polly market they also by the way we are going to on this show talk about the for the prediction stuff purely in the sports realm I know that there's a lot of things on the prediction markets people can predict I also know people you know different people at very different opinions on how they feel about that. We are doing purely the sports piece of it and I'm super excited about it the only negative piece was you know I did check the day of the sports Emmys what first things first when the sports Emmy was trading at and we were a big favorite and it really made me think we were going to win it and then we didn't so that one was a bit of an oak you don't but that's not their fault. Let's do it. It took almost a year but we finally have a adjudication on the Clippers and Kauai.

13:21Nearly a year from Kauai in the Clipper situation the verdict is out there will lose five first round picks bomber will be fine 30 million and suspended for a year and Kauai has to pay back 700,000 but his contract will not be avoided. I think that they got this right. Yeah. I do think the NBA got it right even if it took a long time. I think that so let me let me wrap it fire my takes here. I think that's the reason for most credit where it's due. Pablo and his team deserve massive massive credit for this. They legitimate this was real journalism where they were they they discovered a real scandal and had their reporting on it. It's up enough that it forced the NBA's hand to look into it and now it has far reaching implications on the sport on one of the richest people in the world and Steve Balmer on the Clippers obviously and that's because of the work.

14:36Pablo and his team at his pod, Pablo Tory finds out deserves that is you know first and foremost people had asked me previously why I wasn't talking about this as much and the answer was it just to be totally transparent. I hadn't I was not as interested in the machinations of the story as some people were and because of that I hadn't spent time you know reviewing all of the stuff Pablo put out listening to all the episodes and I kind of felt like I will you know let's see how this plays out and you know that way in at that point. It has now played out and from the NBA's own investigation corroborating all of the things Pablo had been I don't even know if the legend is the right word. They hit the Clippers with about the harshest punishment any teams ever been hit with so there is that piece of it.

15:38Back in the day demands a long before shoot this was around the time you were born maybe right or yeah late 90s. The Minnesota timber wolves. Engaged in salary cap circumvention via Joe Smith the details on that I don't remember exactly but it was essentially I think take this under market deal right now when we don't have cap space and then we will we will sign you to an above market deal when we do have cap space or when we have your bird rights that way we can keep you. Joe Smith's agent didn't want to take it on a handshake deal so they made the timber wolves put that agreement in writing. Wow the two agents then I don't know if the two I don't know if it was a divorce proceeding or the agent split up there was some split I don't know if it was marriage or business but whatever it is.

16:44That in the court fight over I think the agent splitting up and who is owed what commission this document got produced of the temporal of like putting in writing we're going to circumvent the salary cap. At the NBA killed the NBA took away five first round picks they then ended up giving eventually two of them back but the reason I mentioned that is a lot of people feel like that was domino one two Kevin Garnett eventually becoming a Celtic because the timber wolves were not ever able to put a great team around KG and so they kept losing in round one they were never able to and they had no way to greatly improve the roster and so he ends up ultimately leaving. I think that is what we're about to see for the Los Angeles Clippers who are about to enter a decade long winter to not to have your first round pick stripped in 29 30 31 and 32.

18:01There's five of them so it's also 33 I guess or it's either 28 is it 28 through 32 or 29 through 33 regardless and I know they do have some picks coming back for the quiet trade but guys don't hit free agency anymore. The way you acquire talent is either by trading your first round picks for established players or drafting players in the first round the Clippers now can't do this or Keaton Wagler is like you got to be kidding me this is the I just got drafted by the same fifth overall and now that he should be punished for that he should be able to be dispersed to a random team. Oh that the mission I mean it's brutal it's just it's just brutal and it is Clippers man it is the NBA making clear that hey we understand to me my read on it is the NBA is saying we understand there might be some gray area stuff with sponsors that a lot of teams do.

19:22But you guys directly with multiple sponsors telling them whatever you whatever the sponsor pays Kauai we the Clippers will pay you dollar for dollar on the back end to make you net neutral financially to funnel money to Kauai slash uncle Dennis is something that if you do it that blatantly we're not talking about hiring. Jalen Brunson's dad to be one of your assistant coaches in hopes of when he gets to free agency signing him we are talking about black and white taking money from your left pocket handing it to someone so you can then put it in Kauai liners right pocket and saying it didn't come from me that's not going to happen. This is the closest thing we've seen to Montsay to the again another thing you're not that familiar with I would imagine back in the 80s southern Methodist University SMU was paying players a lot of listen a lot of teams were paying players but SMU got hammered for it and their penalty from the NCAA was the death penalty the penalty was you can't play football there anymore.

20:39And they just they just dated it I think it was the three years they weren't allowed to play football there but it took them 15 years to recover from it may be longer. I don't say this with exaggeration. I mean they can fight them in court but the players are so I think one of the reasons the NBA owned they didn't avoid guise contract they didn't suspend guise and they find him 700 grand so he's big winner in this he got millions of dollars he or his uncle or both of them again I'm an uncle Dennis is suspended for five years which what does that mean he's suspended for the rest of the quiet career and maybe I'm wrong but I only think that's not going to be a good thing. There's any other NBA guys that are super interested in doing business have an uncle business Dennis represent him I don't think he has any other nephews in the league so there's an uncle Dennis you're out of here. Why you're not suspended contract not voided kick us back 700 grand of the millions extra you got and we'll keep it moving I think one of the reasons the NBA did this is because they wanted the players association not to fight this and the player association has already agreed to it so bombers of the league imposed it the player association agreed to it so

22:05bombers only recourse is the actual courts like going to I don't know if it's federal court Los Angeles you know whatever so I don't think there's a real way to wiggle this out now the guys were the 150 billion so you know he can throw resources at it and I do think that for him the 30 million is the least important of the punishments and the 30 million literally if you have 150 billion in the bank or 100 if you're worth a 150 billion a 30 million dollar fines the same as if you're worth 100 grand a $20 fine like a little annoying but it's not a big deal. And so but the fact that his team won't be able to compete and he won't be able to go to games or be involved for a year has got to kill him. I mean he's like the number one. What he does I feel like the clippers in shambles.

23:06Well that then brings me he certainly will spend money built a cool arena. That brings me to my biggest takeaway before we move on. And this is where I really really demand that we have an accurate recounting of the summer of 2019. Because the summer of 2019, Kauai Leonard coming off his championship in Toronto. Could have gone to the Lakers, could have gone to the clippers, could have stayed in Toronto at all these options. It would appear Uncle Dennis was really leveraging that decision financially on Kauai's behalf. Kauai also leveraged it as far as you want me to sign with you clippers you have to get Paul George.

24:08I will not sign without you getting Paul George, which allowed the thunder to squeeze the clippers in a way we haven't seen a team get squeezed before or after. And it was Kauai and Paul George are going to be the best to own basketball. New balance ran the new king of LA discussion all of the sports TV shows and pundits were discussing how Kauai and Paul George were the best duo not only in the league, but the best duo of course in Los Angeles. Kauai might be the best player in the league and that they were the team to beat. We now have the final accounting of the Kauai Leonard Paul George clippers era. And what they got was three series victories, one conference finals appearance.

25:11And what it cost them to monse was ten first round picks and Shay Gilges Alexander. For Kauai Leonard and Paul George you traded away ten first round picks. And Shay Gilges Alexander it is unequivocally undeniably and without a close second the single worst large scale transaction in the history of the sport. And you traded away ten first round picks and a two time MVP to make one conference finals and have your team wanted in high insight. Sure, it is unfortunate, but again, and this is where Kauai who all of a sudden, you know, is you know trying to up his media availability and likability.

26:25Kauai Leonard that summer either directly or people acting on his behalf squeezed the life out of the Los Angeles clippers. And now the clippers didn't have to do it. The clippers are grown folks making their own decisions, but Kauai and his representatives we now have confirmed essentially said to the clippers in order for me to come play for you. You have to trade everything it takes to get Paul George and you have to break all of the salary cap rules. That's what I'm worth. The clippers did it and what they got in return for that was doing the math here.

27:30A grand total of 35 playoff games played by Kauai Leonard. A high watermark for Kauai individually of being up three one in round two his first year there before a total and utter collapse and making a single conference finals and that happening the year Kauai got hurt and round two. It's just a catastrophe the likes of which we've never seen and I am not exaggerating when I say I it is a sequence of events that the Los Angeles clippers at the earliest possible date will recover from.

28:35At best 10 years from now 10 years from now feel sick for their fans poor clipper Darryl. Billy Crystal and the like but man oh man it's just unbelievable. Before we get to Josh Allen and before we get to our NFC over under is let me remind you guys boost mobile is proving that you don't have to overpay for great wireless unlike the savings with the $25 a month forever unlimited plan it's a permanent price with no contracts and no price like so you keep your phone and your number but you save up to $600 a year compared to the major carriers. Stop over paying and switch to a fair price at boost mobile dot com today based on average annual single line payment of AT&T Verizon and T mobile customers compared to 12 months on the boost mobile unlimited plan as of January 2026 for full offer details visit boost mobile dot com.

29:43Meet the Red Bull Dragonberry Emergizer it's one of the many new drinks out now who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire try them all only at my dogs. You know the feeling you make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room groans because they wanted that player or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start in right before he goes off in prime time. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football. I'm JJ Zacharyson host of the late round fantasy football podcast before your draft are players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. We've got data driven analysis historical trends in the strategies that separate winners from the rest and your dominance doesn't stop with the draft all season long we have our 15 transactions 10 trends sleepers and the mail back. Data driven quick hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

30:53I'm Britt Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama if you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score that's exactly why we created NFL Pro. We use exclusive next gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories matchups and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box war to uncover the numbers the tendencies and details that help explain what actually happened on the field fires it out but flat the bark Lee could beat one man spins past another. And don't worry this isn't just a show for stats experts we use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan can't get enough analysis our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork how a matchup was won or what most fans missed on Sunday NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else listen to NFL pro on the iHeart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

32:11All right, Demandze let's talk a little Josh Allen before we get to everything else please. So it seems like folks think that Josh Allen's the best NFL player in the league it seems like you have some. Number one all the lists. So what's your what's your ball there. So it's not even so I'm going to do this quickly. Because I it's very it's very matter of fact and very simple and I this is and as very often has been the case with the Josh Allen discourse or the with my Josh Allen opinions it is less about Josh Allen and more about the discourse surrounding Josh Allen that I find madman. Because you can't turn on TV the last few weeks without seeing the question of have the bills done enough for Josh Allen that you know he's done enough to win a Super Bowl and he's been a passive observer to the end of their seasons and all of this.

33:16And you know I've been on the record I think he's one of the three best players in the sport I've been on the record I think eventually he will likely win a Super Bowl I've been on the record about his ability to strike fear in the heart of the opponent being unlike almost any other player in the league all of that I think is just objectively true. But what gets lost and what I'm so surprised by and what it's lost in the sauce of all of this is that each of the last four years when the bill season comes to an end. In that game that it in that ends it.

34:20The quarterback on the other side of the field thoroughly outplayed Josh and his own mistakes or shortcomings in those season ending losses are briefly for a few days in the public eye. At the forefront of why the bills weren't able to get over the hump and then by the time we get to the lead up to the following season we've papered over all of it and it's a what was Josh Allen why won't the bills do more. And so and I'll go through those quickly in a moment but the up the piece demands a of him being the almost at this point universally considered best player in the sport. The question that I would ask is has there ever been another time where a guy who was just majority opinion best player in the league was a player who had never let his team to the number one seed never let his team forget to a super bowl win.

35:46Say all those are team accomplishments. Okay individually did not have the most MVP's of any active player didn't have the second most MVP's of any active player didn't have the third most MVP's of any active player was not the defending league MVP meeting. Okay he doesn't have the most he's coming off his best year had never been the number one see I'm sorry had never been first team all pro at any point of his career was there ever another time in and by the way in the most recent game he played and for turnovers in a playoff game including one of the most cartoonish ones anyone's ever seen has has that resume ever been the resident. This is a may of best player in the league when his contemporaries are there is Matt Stafford a champion the defending league MVP the first team all pro quarterback coming off his best year ever another another contemporary Lamar Jackson who is led his team to the number one seed twice who while also has not been to a super bowl has been league MVP two times to Josh is one and first team all pro three times to Josh is in.

37:04And then of course Patrick Mahomes who I understand is yesterday's news but is played Josh Allen the playoffs four times outplayed him all four of those times has been first team all pro twice league MVP twice and instead of going to zero super rules and winning zero super rules has gone to five and one three I'm just not familiar with that happening. And then I would ask the audience this because I know Nick's just a dater unless you're driving your car right now close your eyes and tell me what comes to mind when I say this picture Josh Allen's greatest win in the NFL you thought of a fucking loss. That's what you thought of you thought of the 13 seconds game okay take that away do it again what's his signature win what is it beating Trevor last year in Jacksonville in round one is it the regular season victory over the chiefs when he ran you know and ended their undefeated season what is it.

38:29And so we haven't been to a super bowl we haven't been the number one seed we haven't been first team all pro we we don't have a signature moment Joe Burles got a signature moment. Jalen hurts as a signature moment my homes has 10 signature moments. Now Lamar might not have one I don't know if Lamar as a signature win Lamar stats though or so I popping but he did and his personal accolades and then there is this and then we will move on post 13 seconds game. In the games that have ended Josh's season he stood across the field from Joe burrow at home as a favorite in the snow. Through for zero touchdowns one pick at a 68 rating while burrow through for two touchdowns no picks out of 102 rating and he got blown out to in their season.

39:40The very next year stood across the field from Patrick LaHombs at home as a favorite for that shaky nobody believed in him chiefs team. He threw for 186 yards one touchdown no picks had an 86 rating while Patrick had completed 80% of his passes for 215 yards two touchdowns no picks of 131 rating and they lost. Got thoroughly outplayed then the next year had to go to Kansas City and in this game he played really well actually despite the fact he fumbled the ball three times and unfortunately for him Patrick played you know just about perfectly accounting for three touchdowns no picks.

40:43He was playing for three touchdowns a one 12 rating to Josh's two total touchdowns and a 105 rating but had the ball in his hands down three three and a half minutes left and they gained 17 yards and their season ended. In last year stood across the field from bone X with everything in front of him being able to go to New England to go to the Super Bowl a team you had just beaten in New England a few weeks prior and turn the ball over four times. That's four straight years that when your season is ended the other teams star or in bone X is case young quarterback I'll play you. But I'm I it feels at times like I'm the only person that remembers any of that.

41:48All right demands a let's go to our picks you were not here for Tuesday so the go over my you know I picked all 16 teams but there were only eight teams that I felt strongly enough that I said I want to bet him recap it to the audience and then I'm going to get your take on these four we do the NFC. So I love Baltimore you got brought to more evens over 11 and a half wins secondly you have Texans over nine and a half wins the Jags over eight and a half wins and the chiefs over 10 and a half and for our unders you got the before we get to the others yeah hold on before we get to the unders your thoughts the one of the overs do like the most and like the least. I can't find one that I dislike but obviously I like the rate the Ravens over but the one that I feel the most strongly about would be Houston maybe Jacksonville secondarily but yeah I'm a little bit the most

42:49squeamish on my chiefs get into 11 wins I understand that yes but it's still like I don't how to hate it either okay but yes yes under you got jets under five and a half bangles under 10 and a half Steelers under eight and a half and then get the chargers under 10 and a half the bangles I love you there I did. Oh you agree 100% okay so those so and if you want to hear my full rationale and everything for any of these you can you know just check out Tuesday's pod we did it you know deep there so as always just so everybody knows the plan here is just I will go through all 16 NFC teams I will tell you which way I'm leaning on their over under and I'll tell you which ones I'm comfortable actually betting or the you know actually that I'm going to put money on and so and then tomorrow show Friday show will do our playoff in out division winner predictions super bowl

43:54match up all of that stuff like that we do historically Dumanze is going to give some of his I think today and tomorrow but we've done the AFC it is now time for the NFC Dumanze we will start with the NFC's so first off we got the cowboys they're set their total Senate 9 1 1 2 9 and a half worms this is not one that will be putting any money on because the other piece of it in your Tuesday show my general rule was I went through and I picked all 272 games saw what that ended up being Teams record wise then did any you know gave it another look another look and then finalized What I had the final NFL standings being and if a team If what I had them projected to do was more than a game and a half different than What there was a game and a half or more I should say different than what they're

44:58predicted win total was those are the ones that I said I wanted to actually you know put an investment on The cowboys I have going nine and eight they're totals nine and a half so I am by the slightest of margins and under But it would not be something that I would put money on Here's what I like and don't like the monze Obviously love the offense. I thought shot in Heimer last year did a really good job as a rookie head coach So I like that piece of it. I do think they improved defensively The other draft when in Williams being there a full year. I like all of that However, I don't know that I think they're gonna have a consistent running game I don't know that I think pickings is going to be able to duplicate his damn near 1500 yards from last year and I don't know if the defense is going to take the type of leap People expect it to take you add to that that they play

46:01Road games, Demons a against Philly, Houston the Rams the Seahawks and the Packers and Then also have home games against Philly obviously Jacksonville the Niners the Bucks the Ravens That is ten Really tough games Like just really tough games. So I I think nine and eight feels about right there are trendy Super Bowl pick And I don't think that's a crazy take, but I am Staying away on that. I'm a slight under and all these you you know you chime in on any if you feel strongly about anything In any way chime in if not we'll go on to the next team. Yeah, I would agree I wouldn't bet the overall under there. I'm not comfortable on each side there The Giants is total seven and a half wins So I think that's Just about right again. I would lean under I have them going seven and ten I

47:07What you like about the Giants they probably Upgraded significantly at head coach they definitely have an excellent offensive or I'm sorry defensive line neighbors coming back Dart in year two you like those things But aside from the defensive line everything I said there are also real question marks Maybe John Harboss a huge upgraded head coach and Maybe this is his heat Carol with the Raiders here where it's like oh man He's he's he's done neighbors that knee injury took forever to get back from what is he gonna look like? You just heard concerning reports about right post surgery and all that with him dart Does he have the maturity level to stay healthy and I know that sounds harsh, but like his Hit the reason he's been in the blue tent and half of the games he's played some of that stylistically from him

48:08So all of that is concerning you do like that Some up you know they have home games against Their division teams, but then outside of the division their home games are Jacksonville and San Francisco tough But then Arizona Tennessee Cleveland and New Orleans so you have four of Certainly Arizona Tennessee Cleveland three kind of layoff But the away games are brutal At Detroit at Seattle at the Rams at Houston plus at the Colton or division games So I think seven wins feels right for the New York Giants. That's where I land with them Can't have scatable and darn on the same team in my opinion and hope for success But you got the Eagles set at 10 and a half wins. I totally agree. Demons a I totally agree with you See can't that is that's like one of your first actual like old man takes, but it's correct

49:09You like you the It's just a little too Bro it's to yeah, and It just and now listening to the hard law Get them in line, but I but and I you could do it if they were you're running back and you're tight end Yeah, but not if it's you're running back in quarterback at least that's how I feel all right next Eagles are set at 10 and a half wins Yeah, so Set all summer The Eagles are a team that I could see going 14 and three and Having the number one seed and a team that I could see going seven and ten and finishing near the bot, you know firing the coach I know it'll shock the audience I landed with the former rather than the latter I Love the Eagles over. I haven't going 13 and 4 Now

50:10There are allegations out there that I am simply Trying to butter up the city of Philadelphia because I'm going to be spending so much time there come the NBA season What I would say to those allegations is They're not entirely false Did I look at the Eagles through Slightly rose colored glasses because I expect to spend so much time in Philadelphia over the next six months possibly Maybe did those rose colored glasses simply make you know turn to new did they What's the opposite of rose colored glasses like dingy dirty glasses had I been looking at the Eagles through Anti rose colored glasses because I find Seriani so irritating and because their fans are so rude to me in person So maybe the rose colored glasses just canceled that out now. I'm seeing clearly possibly I don't know

51:10Here's what I do expect I think AJ Brown is a bit of addition by subtraction I think Jalen Hertz for all of his you know fair Holes to poke at him as a passer Has been at his best when he's been doubted. I think Jalen Carter could be the defensive player of the year this year And even though they lost a couple pieces I love the defense and the young secondary getting older in Vic, Fange, Jose scheme and I think sake one could have a bit of a bounce back year for all of those reasons I Think Philly could be a monster Philly 13 and 4 I'm an over there. Are you shocked that that's my take Not shocked. I do think that Philly's offense will take a little bit of a leap or a new a new angle this year So and obviously they have the roster so I wouldn't go under But yeah, I think I think that's fair and at last point. Sorry. I

52:12Also think they are most likely of any team in the league to make a major midseason acquisition Because I think they know this is Lane Johnson's probably his last year a lot of that salary cap You know kind of put it on the credit card stuff is coming due soon So they might really go for it this year. So that's another reason I like them. All right last team in the division Commanders are set at seven and a half wins So I love This under oh I have the commanders coming in at let me hold on let me did I have him five and twelve or six and eleven either way the I am Very skeptical of the commanders. Let me see what what I had them land at I had the commanders at five and twelve so My reasoning for that is I Think the offensive line

53:12could could just be a season in therefore So I think that's a problem. I don't love Almost anybody I shouldn't that's too harsh. There is no one on the defense that you know takes your breath away So to speak I think they have fine But below average weapons I There there is just A lot of and I've been that's not even mentioning the jade and health concern stuff which is legit And so you have four games against Dallas and Philly you also are home against Houston the Rams Seattle Those are really tough you go to Jacksonville and San Francisco. I They don't have an overwhelming schedule, but I think that is are they the team that the schedule There's one of these teams the schedule starts brutal. That's right Demand say their first three games. I just pulled it up and then I closed it their first three games

54:18At Philly at Dallas home for Seattle Yeah, like are you start knowing three is Dan Quinn instant hot seat all of that worries me a lot I'm under on the Washington commanders Yeah, I would say that's pretty fair. I don't I don't have any discreet. It's there bombs you out because you like Jane I do like Jane Daniels a lot and I didn't even mention jadans Yeah, and Ellis you that situation, but Yeah, yes, all right, so let's go to the hardest division in the NFL to handicap All right, so we got the NFC North here or oh wait Yeah, yeah, so you got the NFC North here Chicago Bears set it nine and a half wins So I'm kind of breaking my own rules here I am going over and this is where you know

55:22This is me maybe Because it's what I for the NFC North I Maybe shouldn't be having the this be an official pick, but I'm going to because I only have them going to Mons a 10 and 7 and they're so so what did I do? Oh, I think it's because you get a little plus money on the over but regardless I'm going 10 and 7 and this is going to be an official prediction the Bears over nine and a half wins So I understand the concerns about the Bears Too many last second victories Regression as far as turnovers forced by the defense that the fact that the defense as a whole might not be able to get stops those are all very fair concerns The flip side to that however is I Still believe Caleb is going to be a superstar in this league. I believe Ben Johnson even if people find him a little arrogant

56:26is Going to be one of the Consistently regarded as one of the best coaches and one of the best offensive minds those guys in year two together I think get a significant bump and the offense gets much more efficient Colston Loveland in year two another year from Luther or not year two for Colston Yeah, it is your two for Colston Loveland Luther Burton all of that I just really I love the Bears offense Enough to get them to 10 wins. So I say bears over nine and a half. I like the Bears To be back in the playoffs not to win the division but to be back in the playoffs Yeah, I could see this team go into the Super Bowl 100% I am so I'll go over on nine and a half wins I Love that I didn't I my could they will need to Have some young guys on defense take huge leaps if they're gonna go to the Super Bowl

57:31I love all right go ahead Next you got Detroit Lions the Winter Total Senate 10 and a half So this is another one where I guess I didn't follow my own rules because I called this an official prediction But I do only have them winning 11 games, but I am going over I think they bounce back. I think they win their division. I also think they are a Very easy team to discuss in this regard. I think they will lose to the bad quarterbacks they face and I think they will outscore and beat the non bad quarterbacks So I think they are going to have an elite offense slight questions on the offensive line, but Jameer Gibbs I think the fact that Dave Montgomery's not there might actually help them and that's not disrespectful to Montgomery It's only because they will have no choice but to give Jameer Gibbs even more touches. I think that is good A monorossing Brown is obviously a star Jamo Jameson Williams while a bit of a knucklehead will say when he's out there is very very good

58:36I think they're often it's gonna be excellent I think their past defense particularly early in the year is going to be in real trouble Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph still coming off injury Terry and Arnold not on the team anymore And now in the commissioners exemplless for Seattle So I think good quarterbacks particularly until they get branch and Joseph back could cut him up But that's why they got very lucky and how their schedule fell to Monze First five weeks of the year Four of those quarterbacks Tyler Schuck, Geno Smith, Bryce Young and Jacobi Berset Now week two Josh Allen on a Thursday night, you know, he probably carves him, but that's so be it Late in the year, you know, you play both games against Caleb You play is in week six against Jordan Love and then week 18 against Jordan Love You also play Baker and Drake May

59:40But they don't I just gave you if we just go through their quarterbacks they face in order I'll do it real quick Schuck Allen so we're do you know Non-scary scary Schuck Allen, Geno, Bryce, Jacobi. I'll give Jordan Love scary even though I'm a love frightening Tyler Malik Willis Drake May Baker Caleb Hennex Ward Tyler Dart Caleb of Jordan Love so seven games Against what you would consider established quarterbacks 10 games against non-established quarterbacks or bad quarterbacks So I think that the Lions could be a bit of a Paper Tiger in this regard. I think they could have Gaudy offensive stats when that tough division and then get to the postseason and get clipped

1:00:45Because they have to face one of those really good quarterbacks, but there's a regular season question I'm over 10 and a half for them for the regular season. I think I will go under stay away from that one So for the green Bay Packers they technically did finish and last in their division last year Everybody thinks it was the Vikings, but technically it was the Lions at 9 and 8 type of the Vikings go ahead So we got the green Bay Packers at 9 and a half wins So this is this entire division I have the teams in it their Win total within a half game of what's projected packers. I am a slight under this is not an official pick Packers 9 and a half I haven't going 9 and 8 missing the playoffs by a game this one is relatively simple I I

1:01:46Have no reason to trust that defense without Micah and Micah's gonna miss a third of the season maybe more so that's not great I've never loved their group of receivers. They have a bunch of guys Historically now we'll see what Matthew Golden turns into who would be like awesome number threes or Okay number twos, but not the guy the Josh Jacob situations awful and what he's accused of is really really bad But he's on commissioners exemplest so he's gone also since Aaron Rogers left the green Bay Packers demands a No team has benefited from the NFL expanding the playoffs more than the Packers the Packers first year without Rogers they were the seventh seed second year without Rogers they were the seventh seed Last year without Rogers they were the seventh seed. They've been the seven seed. They be Dallas that one year Maybe down a kill when it were yet that that was the time to maybe make six five something

1:02:50Yeah, they have been flying high For not flying high but living off that crushing of Dallas In that playoff game that I remember being so stunned by it that I just kept during the game I just kept betting on Dallas on the money. I was like this won't keep up. I just kept firing Um, I was a disaster, but I'm Packers slight under Packers go nine and eight Yeah, been different there Minnesota Vikings totals that at eight and a half So I'm a slight under I think they go eight and nine I also think that The they could start the year quite well You get a nice First few get Packers bears box not super easy, but then you do get Dolphin Saints cults In a rose that's your first six games. So there is certainly a scenario where they're four and two

1:03:57Kyler's looking good people like see Watch out for the Vikings, but then the Mid part of the schedule at lions home for bills at Packers home for Niners combined with the then what I considered the inevitability of Kyler once we get around week 12 diminishing returns I think there an eight and nine team. I don't expect Brian Flores as defense to be quite as dominant as it was last year I know everyone's analysis is very simple on them They won nine games with Max Brosburn JJ McCarthy. How many games are they gonna win with Kyler Murray? I don't think it works exactly like that. I think the line. I think the NFC North Coast What you like that I like that logic honestly. I like it Everybody does But I have this division Being stair stepped Vikings eight wins Packers nine wins bears 10 wins

1:05:02Lions 11 wins, which means anybody could win it in theory, but it's not official pick, but I am under for the Minnesota Vikings Moving on to the NFC South first we have the Falcons their total Senate seven and a half All right, so Technically, this should be an official pick, but I don't really have real conviction on it I have the Falcons winning nine games Oh Listen Greg Rosenthal who I have massive respect for Thinks the Falcons could end up being one of the worst teams in the league That concerned me a bit the schedule's not crazy easy They still haven't named their starting quarterback There are two big pass rushers One is suspended half the year and the others injured

1:06:06And I haven't winning nine games and My thin thin rationale is I think B. John could be The most impactful running back in football this year I am not out yet on Michael Pinnix entirely I wonder if what Stefansky can get out of Pinnix The end and how you know what Stefansky can do With that teams offense with Drake London and with um Bees John and I did I'm just gonna be totally honest with the audience here. I did a whole thing all summer About how each of the last five years There has been a team in the NFL That has greater than a hundred to one Super Bowl odds that has made the playoffs Those teams There are six teams that fit that description

1:07:07They are The Jets no thanks the dolphins no thanks the Titans no thanks the Browns no thanks the Raiders no thanks and Oh wait hold on one of those the the Cardinals and the Falcons So I I'm in a bit of a rock in a hard place here. We can just move on. I have the Falcons going nine and eight somehow I don't know how but I haven't doing it Fair enough. Oh got the father Panthers. There's one total Senate seven and a half as well This one is an under for me I but again not a I'm not doing an actual pick here the I am going six and eleven I didn't think they were that good last year. I know they ended up winning the division I'm still I don't think Bryce turned a page. I don't love the head coach. I don't love the overall town on the roster

1:08:10I don't love the skill position guys. I don't love the offensive line I think that they are a six-win team and that next year they're looking at a new coach and new quarterback I'm under for the defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers Mm-hmm. Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna lean over there uh Hey, I think Bryce rice believe in um, you got the Saints you root for Bryce. Yeah Yeah, the Rupert I think um, I think you'll surprise some people and they went toe-to-toe with the Rams last year in the playoffs Oh, yeah, they did they got the same in the regular season and then uh, and then all the people like three yeah, it came down to three points maybe uh, you got the Saints set it seven and a half wins Cam Jordan came on first things first and almost swayed me here, but he did not quite do it I have the Saints winning eight games and just missing out on the postseason uh, so so I I

1:09:10lean over it's not a pick Uh, I love cam Jordan Tyson is a big loss for them spend top 10 pick on a wide receiver with injury risks And he doesn't get out of camp healthy that concerns you Tyler Schuck is show just enough to be interesting last year and I do think they should have a good pass rush I don't think I do like the fact that they get home games against In addition to Carolina Cleveland Pittsburgh the Raiders and the Cardinals Along with a road game against the Giants teams. I don't think they're gonna be you know Dominant teams But I think that they win eight games just barely hit the over just barely missed the playoffs So I have the Falcons at nine wins somehow the Panthers at Did I say five or six the Panthers at six the Saints at eight that's not a lot of wins for the division

1:10:10That leaves just the Tampa Bay Buccaneers They're total Demons a is what it said eight and a half got a feeling And which way you're going here. I'm getting back on this the horse Tampa 11 and six Tampa has a great chance of starting the year three and oh now they started last year great and then Absolutely collapse, but they're at Cincinnati in week one Cincinnati starts every year slowly Then home for the Browns then home for the Vikings Acres got a chip on the shoulder this year too Pardon me exactly Baker no contract Motivated angry about what you know that they didn't pay him Ameca Bucca you looked so good the first apple last year then fell apart. I don't know what happened there I think that they are the best team in this division Todd bowls, you know very hot seat baker trying to prove his

1:11:12You know that he deserves one of those top flight contracts I like Tampa a lot to win this division. I like Tampa a lot to win double digit games Tampa 11 and six a steaming over of their Over of their total of eight and a half wins and now What a lot of people consider the best division in football Oh, we got the NFC West cardinals set it three and a half wins It's such a disrespectful number three and a half And then you look at Demise they play This year Two games against the Rams two games against Seattle two games against the Niners were at six of their 17 plus Indalis in Kansas City In Los Angeles for the Chargers were at nine of their games

1:12:13home against Denver The Eagles the Lions were at 12 of their games So they did the schedule They have the hardest schedule in the NFL by a lot They were awful less you're have the hardest schedule So in order is so if you think they're going to go oh and 12 in those games which I do To hit the over They have to go four and one and Home against the Raiders Home against Washington home against the Jets At the Giants at the Saints It's certainly possible And it's not a you know, I'm not betting under three and a half ever But this season at one point I mean and Jeremiah loves already heard I I haven't going three and 14 but I'm staying away from it. All right next You got the Rams set at 11 and a half wins

1:13:17I think the Rams win 11 games So I'm a slight under but not a pick Now that might seem a little too skeptical The defense is going to be Unreal That that's lock that in So if the defense is unreal you guys know how I feel about Stafford Have the over here are my concerns for them okay They don't have depth on the offensive line and they're left tackle a laryx jaxon I think is still potentially facing league discipline that's concerning They don't really have depth at wide receiver And one of their wide receivers is one of the oldest guys in the league in Devante Adams And the others puka who as I said on Tuesday show If you if you're a Rams fan and you have Adam Shaftar tweet alerts on and it's mid-November and pukas coming off a great game And you see Shaftar is sent a tweet and the first two words are pukinakua

1:14:21In your gut you're like oh man This might say just one player of the week and this might have the wildest quote that he just gave on some ridiculous pod You're just nervous and So that concerns me Stafford had more touchdown passes last year to monse Then he had the previous two years combined Which is to say The previous two years age 35 and 36 season for Stafford he was good and Scary and a guy you didn't want to play in the playoffs, but wasn't a plus Last year he was a triple plus is he gonna regress a bit I The the schedule is brutal. We are we know the division plus road games against Denver, Philly and Tampa Home games against Dallas the chiefs the chargers buffalo and green bay I think there is a scenario where That you know they start the season off

1:15:25divisional game in Australia Against the Niners if they lose that game We choose the Giants then it's at Denver at Philly home for the bills You know is there a world where this juggernaut unstoppable Rams team starts two and three Maybe so I I've got him winning 11 games. I've got him making the playoffs I've got him being a very scary team, but I I'm an under there. I think you're gonna be in over Um for Rams 12 wins Um, yeah, I just wouldn't bet it. I wouldn't bet that one But okay, so you're staying away miles Garrett was just named NFL Oh, my number just got number one Number one player. Yeah from that player pole that makes sense. I mean he had 23 sex last year So like Josh Allen was number two miles Garrett number one. All right. Go ahead You got San Francisco there's uh win totals 9.5

1:16:25Yeah, I don't love their personnel on defense. I you know, they're asking a lot of DeShawn scribbling on that right wide Rookie DeShawn scribbling for the wide receiver room along with aging Mike Evans Uh, I worry that McCaffrey off the usage he had last year has diminishing returns this year Obviously, I think Shanahan's a great coach, but this is an official pick. I have them going eight and nine So I'm under for the Niners Uh, which then leaves us To the defending Super Bowl champions last but certainly not least the Seattle sea hawks sea hawks total is 10 and a half wins I think Seattle's gonna be the number one seed again I'm going 14 and three. This is a steaming over schedule is not easy But I love the roster. I love the coach. I also think one thing that has not been worked into any sea hawks analysis is this Are we going to get the best version yet of darnled because

1:17:31All of the pressure is the bust label the he's gotten he's now been paid. He's had back-to-back awesome years He just won a Super Bowl the pumpkin mode stuff is gone like does that unlock him To another level. I think Seattle is unbelievable On both sides of the ball. I think there are 14 win team and the number one seed once again. I am over For the Seattle sea hawks go like that a lot. I would go over there You like it a lot. I would go over there. Yeah, I really like what you said about Donald's you know everything's been done pressures off Pressures off he obby, you know he's my talking mess. He's always had The yeah, and he's listen He's always had the pedigree and now he's finally kind of put it together um All right, Demandee you want to tell us I know you have three uh, oh, so full recap for me

1:18:33Uh, if you want to throw him on the screen Daniel the overs. I'm rolling with Over Jacksonville eight and a half Tampa eight and a half Houston nine and a half Chicago nine and a half Detroit ten and a half Seattle ten and a half Can't say ten and a half Philly ten and a half Baltimore eleven and a half Just it just glancing at it. I do have to say I don't love That all I don't have any low number overs makes me a little nervous. I picked all you know high number overs All right, what are my unders The unders I'm rolling with this year jets five and a half Washington seven and a half Pittsburgh eight and a half San Francisco nine and a half since 90 ten and a half and Chargers ten and a half Demandee your three favorite win totals of the year are who? Uh Texans over nine and a half Broncos over nine and a half bangles under ten and a half So we had a couple correctly only one or a couple of the same oh yeah when you did that was the Broncos in there so you at so

1:19:36Uh, your favorite are three that I'm with you on yep So I like that your favorites aren't opposite and there are three that I said I'm official picks for me So that's great um all right, let me remind you guys the NFL seasons about to kick off That's why I want to give a huge shout out of the sponsor of today's show seat geek 35 million download seat geeks The number one rated ticketing at more than 70,000 events listed on seat geek including concert sports festivals and more Baseballs in full swing footballs right around the corner. I literally this morning see if I can pull it up But my Saturday US Open tickets on seat geek. I'm opening to see if it's still up on my screen if I go there Uh, blah blah blah there it is so there it is the Saturday US Open Uh the morning session at ash got those tickets through seat geek you guys know how often I use seat geek And you guys know seat geek has your back each ticket is rated on a scale of one to ten

1:20:37So you know you're getting a good deal look for the green dots green means good red means bad It's very simple every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee and you guys know you can use my code right 10 Wright 10 for 10 percent off your next set of tickets at seat geek that's 10 percent off any tickets with promo code right 10 Make sure you click the link in the description download the app and have the code Automatically added to your account so you can use it later. Thank you to my friends at seat geek all right So here's what we're gonna do Tomorrow's show We've given you our overunders tomorrow's show we are going to give you our division winner picks Our conference winner picks our super bowl picks our make miss playoff picks It will finalize our NF in FL preseason prediction shows For a full week of it and the next week we are in it So huge thank you to boost mobile to seat geek to volume to blue duck and to the new

1:21:42Prediction market of the show our friends at polymarket. We will talk to you guys this time tomorrow. What's right? This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human