MLB Opening Day Player Props 3/26/26 – Bets, Player Props and Predictions | The Propcast (Ep. 436)

0:00cut is the premier peer-to-peer betting platform allowing you to bet sports against anyone, even me Sean second the money green cut is the ultimate put your money where your mouth is platform plus cut has just added casino games. That's right. Blackjack slots and more best part is cut is available in 40 plus states. Get cut in the app store or go to play.cut.com use promo code sgpn to receive a 20% deposit bonus. That's cut promo code sgpn. Put your money where your mouth is on cut. The prop cast on the sports game podcast network is brought to you by calcium, a real money predicting sports cost available in every state, 10 bucks for free. When you sign up with the code sgpn that's calcium promo code sgpn. and welcome everyone to the prop cast here on the sports game podcast. Now we're currently

1:00Thursday morning, March 26th, around 11 am each from time. I'm Roscarra Shull joined again members. We're going to break down the first day of the baseball season for a bunch of teams, technically not opening day because the Yankees did play yesterday, but it's opening day if we're keeping it real here. Either way though, we're going to be doing baseball only for today. So keep that in mind, but either way, Adam, how's it going with you? What's up? It's good. We can get going. This feels weird, man. I think we're on opposite sides and we use it. No, we are. Yeah, cool. That meals much better. All right. I'm good, man. And I know you got another show that you got to do. So let's, let's get this going and do some damage here. Before we get into that, though, we do have to victory lap the first game of the season because we won basically everything in that game. So we did. We were, we were like, look, Trevor, Trevor, Trevor, uh, Trent Christian opened with that K, like if we were trying to go over the acts of bets, for the bets that were tracked, we did. I mean, stand at a couple of hits. That's fine. I mean,

2:01Bailey gave these out. We gave those out two days ago. Yeah, Bailey was terrible. That was plus money for no hits. We had no home run in the game of plus 450 or 50. It was overall very good episode on Vison with you. I gave out the Yankees game under eight and a half and the close seven ended seven, I think. So overall, once again, a good no, uh, so I mean, but with web outside of that bad ending, he was actually fine. Like people are going to look at this and think he did, he was terrible. But like they didn't, Yankees didn't score any runs after the fifth. Well, he got drafted. So the bullpen was good. I wouldn't say it. Right. But the thing is what I'm saying is is that he had the blow up second. Yeah. Uh, third, uh, third. He had a blow up ending. But otherwise, like it, like, I think it was back in. I think it was the second and the third or the worst. Yeah. Like stuck like, but it wasn't, um, it wasn't like a shell. It wasn't nearly, it was because it was a barrage of, uh, basically hits and stuff like that. And so like, uh, I'm not high on Logan web overall just for some other hard hit metrics. But like, I wouldn't,

3:03people are going to look at that and they're going to think, oh, my God, he stinks or something like that. Who are I doing that? But like, it wasn't, it wasn't as bad as it is. It was literally the damage was within. He just, that second time through the order, he just got like, I don't know if he was tipping or what, but like, I mean, he might not have been like, I always think when people are tipping, but it's not, he wasn't probably tipping. He just didn't do well. It's all contact. He always gives up a lot of hits anyway. But just hit, hit, hit, hit, hit, hit. And the bottom of that order just constantly got on base. And that's what happened. But it wasn't like, like the Yankees didn't have, they were bombing off of them every single game. Oh, nobody had a home run on the entire game. Right. Exactly. So there you go. Judge had a terrible game. Yeah, strike out four times in a row to start the game. But either way point is the Yankees had a nice win. We had a very nice day. I'll try to keep rolling here for opening day. Four get into our actual props though for opening day baseball's officially back. So once again, check out the podcast either YouTube Spotify Apple sports the show. But don't forget to leave a rating interview on Spotify Apple. Don't forget to like, subscribe to the MLB Gaming podcast on YouTube. And I know, of course,

4:07the podcast as well. You're here for once again, we do baseball on the MLB Gaming podcast. So check that out as well. Anyway, moving on into the actual props that we have for opening day. Adam, what's going to be your first prop for the show? First one, we are going to go with is we close the season with this a lot last year. You know what it is? It's going to be Mr. James Wood piece of candy two Ks even money. We just got to do it, man. His like you and I have him for big things this year, but it doesn't look like things really corrected themselves since spring training. He was terrible spring trainer. Did he had six hits in 50 at bats at a K rate of 37%. This is a no brainer for us. We're taking this believe it. And it's also and also even worse against lefties. Matt Boyd is starting. So yeah, not going to dance around this one. If you know, you know, and you followed us and you just know, till we see otherwise two Ks with zero lineup

5:09protection for Mr. James Wood even money. Yeah. And boy, it was very good last year. Of course, he's a lefty. So it should be a tough match up there for wood. I'm going to stay in the same game. In fact, the same lineup because I'm going to go with another guy who is terrible in spring training. A lot of nationals guys, we're not good in spring training, but I'm I am going to go for a defensive specialist. I am going to go with Jacob Young. I'm going to take his no hits at plus 105. In general, not a very good hitter. I think that we all know he's known for his goal glove basically in center. But either way, he had one hit in 16 spring training play appearances. A last season despite being a righty, he was worse against lefties. He had a 225 batting average against lefties and boy, at home last year and really was really good. 89 and two thirds earnings pitched only 67 hits allowed. Pretty decent splits home in a way. And the fact is, he's at home young despite being a righty was worse against lefties. I know that handy graph said that he was going to be batting relatively early in the lineup. I'm not sure if I actually

6:10agree with that. I think he might actually be buried at the back end of this lineup. So we'll see where he actually bats officially for this game. But either way, the point is he might better early, might that late, but he stinks. I think that he's going to struggle in this game as well. Pulse money. I think it's a great price. Give me the Jacob Young no hits at plus 105. He was lucky. He was on my lap. I think what I want to do is I'll just show everybody exactly why you're doing this play because you as a man of leisure don't always like to don't always like to reveal your secrets. But as we see on handy grass. So hey, you guys have spring training metrics. All you got to do is look at, hey, who has a really low bat from spring training and doesn't have any hits? And who do we see right here? It's Jacob Young. It's Jacob Young. So yeah, this is I love this play. In fact, I woke up this morning. I hadn't looked at your play. I see a Joe already saying woodcays are back. I woke up this morning and I texted that to you. And then I saw your plays and I was like,

7:14oh my god, I love this. We're so married. Yeah, I went out of my way to deep dive handicrafts last night to find. Yeah, it's easy platform. And we are very lucky to have a boss who's like, yeah, a promoter product that doesn't make me any money, but helps everybody out. Yeah, so they're very lucky that we have Sean, you know, Peter Joseph Green. I was wondering you make them a middle man and Ryan, Ryan, Zion, Kramer. Yeah, something like that. But either way, once again, we're going to fade a couple of nationals to start the show. Look at possible. You're wrong. I'm moving on into your neck. They are short on that money line on them. It's short. On who the Cubs are the nationals? The nationals is only plus one eighty eight. Well, you thought she had been more? Yeah. I really don't know an opening day if any team should be laying like 250. It's kind of the question there. Agreed. I agree. But it feels short, right? I actually don't know. On the MLB show, I didn't want the cut. I basically picked the nationals out of the fault for price. But of course, I didn't debt it. But I thought one eighty five on an opening day price was insane. Yeah. So we'll see. But either way, moving on to your second prop,

8:19what do you like? We're going to go with Nick Pavetta under 15 and a half outs. I like, I'm just going to show everybody my work here while we do this. Nick Pavetta under 15 and a half outs. He had arm fatigue early in spring training. He had 71 pitches in his last start in spring training and went for innings, but he's kind of labored. I don't want for that. I don't want a guy going past the fifth. It's just a flag for me. Also, while I'm not always high on a Detroit offense, I don't. Detroit is I think has more than capable hitters across the board on that. And you know, we could look at them on spring training. Yeah, this team actually didn't hit hit pretty well on spring training as you click there. San Diego has also been known to heavily involve their bolt pen and a bunch of games. Yeah, exactly. They're not going to be afraid to do that. But you could just look at the stats and stuff on this here. I think under I think having this over the key number is pretty good number for us. So giving Nick Pavetta under 15 and a half outs. I think I got it at minus 105. Good price overall. Yeah. And Pavetta we know can also get chilled, which

9:21is always a possibility. He can. I like Pavetta, but he's also he's also coming off like a career year and everything. You know, yeah, there's a lot of reasons to not jump back in this. Definitely true. But I can get behind that before we're getting to the other props that we have for the show or a reminder that you should check out our sponsor, Kalshi, real late prediction market available for every state, use it for baseball as well. Comes the training options for your favorite sports and reminder new customers get 10 bucks on the side of the code SGPM. This Kalshi promo code SGPM. We're also brought to you by McFantasy or a reminder that they've been covered for pick and entries from with every single sport. We'll give that an entry at the end of the show, increase payout to recently, two big entries in on 3.5 X, three big entries are now 6.5 X, and if we're new to the platform, play five bucks to 50 bucks for our funds. If you're a new customer, you sign up at our McFantasy with the promo code SGPM. Cut as the premier appeared up here betting platform allowing you to bet sports against anyone, even me Sean second the money green. Cut is the ultimate put your money where your mouth is platform plus cut has

10:25just added casino games. That's right. Blackjack slots and more best part is cut is available in 40 plus states. Get cut in the app store or go to play.cut.com use promo code SGPM to receive a 20 percent deposit bonus. That's cut promo code SGPM. Put your money where your mouth is on cut. Welcome back everyone to the prop cast finish going through a first call props for opening day time to move on into my second play for the show. For this one, I will go with a pitching prop. I'm going to fade Shane Smith. Now Shane Smith's strikeouts were actually pretty good at the end of last year. However, he has been absolutely atrocious in spring training and Milwaukee, even if you're down on this year, they were really good at not striking out last year and you're looking at directional lineup. They were good ones again in spring training with pretty low K rates. Shane Smith though under four and a half strikeouts was only minus 105 and I really do like the price. In spring training, besides the really bad ERA and really bad hard hit rates, etc. 14.4 percent

11:32with rate and a 5.4 percent swinging strike strike. Nobody was like, nobody was fooled by anything that he threw the entire spring training. Last season, the brewers had the last spring rate was even worse. 18 percent. He was awful. The entire spring training, not just the hard hit stuff, but also getting no swinging strikes at all. So you're looking at the brewers last year where the fifth few strikeouts per game. Eight of the nine projected starters for the brewers had K rates below 21 percent in spring training. So once again, you have a K rate guy who just has been underwhelming in spring training. He looks awful. His outs are 15 and a half juice to the under. So he's probably going to need to average a strikeout per inning because I don't see him going more than five. Milwaukee, we know, can be a very, very stingy lineup to deal with and get strikeouts from. It's a low number, but I agree with it and I love the price. Give me Shane Smith under four and a half strikeouts at minus 105.

12:33Love it. There you go. I'm a short list. Yeah. Moving on to your next play. What do you like? All right. So there's a couple plays that I like in this game, but I'm only going to give out one of them. We're going to go with that. So I'm everyone knows you and I are, I could say we and I always know it's you too because I don't know where you're going with this, but yes. Anyway, we're really high on Brendan Donovan this year. Yeah. Just in general, Brendan Donovan. As long as he stays healthy, the guy has a hit leader, uh, ceiling. Uh, he had a really good spring training back at 413 in 57 plate appearances, 46 at bats, uh, tempers up walk rate, uh, really low K rate, uh, in typical Brendan Donovan fashion, his ISO 130 guy is a singles machine. So we're going to take his single. We got it at plus 104, uh, on draft kings. I think it's minus 103. Now it's around even money, but uh, I like him to get a single today. You know, not 10 or Bobby fans at all. Um, he also did not have a great spring training. He had a fit of 495 and

13:35ERA of 6.65 barrel rate was really high. I think he basically plateaued as a starter. That's kind of how I look at him. Yeah. Well, they gave him that extension. I mean, his habits also really high. That extension, I think it's an age well, but the game. I mean, yeah, uh, nothing. It's the guardians, right? I know. Um, that's the money in anybody. No, we do. Well, we do have the guardians for like a, uh, over their win total this month, because like, yeah, there's value on it. Yeah, because they always overachieve anything. Right, right. It doesn't mean we actually like him as the opening day starter. Exactly. I think Gavin Williams should be the opening day starter. Uh, but that being said, uh, yeah, I like Brendan Donovan to have a single, uh, plus 104 might be minus 104 now, but yeah, that one too. Yeah, singles machine. Uh, moving on into my final play. I have another fade. And I'm sure none of you are surprised at Open Day. I have three fades. I'm going to go with a no hits play. Pretty good price. And it's a guy that we know strikes out a ton and it's facing Garrett crochet. It's one can possibly go wrong. Uh, give me, give me a suarez. No hits at plus 125. He was awful. He was also awful in spring training.

14:39Now he had a home run in one of those games in the WBC. Besides that, he didn't really do much in that either, but in spring training, he had a bad bit of 167, a K rate of 29.4 percent, and a WRC plus of 37 in spring training. So he was awful the entire spring training. Not to mention the fact that against lefties last year, despite being a righty, he was really bad. A hundred and eighty one played appearance as a 164 batting average. And crochet last year, we know it was very, very good on the road. It was even better compared to Fenway. 116 innings, only 91 hits allowed a 2.25 ERA. Hidden crochets, tough enough, but suarez at plus 125 for a guy that might break out the sombrero, I think is intriguing, especially when you're looking at his numbers against lefties. He was horrific against lefties last year. Give me suarez. No hits of plus 125. I don't like suarez. I can't believe it was 125 against crochet.

15:40It's also crochet. Yeah, exactly. This should be like 105 as far as I'm concerned, but there we go. Another hit or fade. I'm going to keep trying to ride the no hits train. Anything else you want to add for a miscellaneous saw that other stuff? I'm not going to do miscellaneous with the animal. I'm trying to install that you and I find. Sorry, miscellaneous on one. Sorry. Yeah, you have a dog pick for this. Let's look based on my dog filter. I gave one out for opening day on the MLB show, which you might approve of. Well, let me see. Let me see if I can pick one. Okay. All right. You can pick one and then guess. We're making good time. So. I can tell you, you know, I really love today. Who? Jake Bowers. Okay. That is not not for it. Not for it. Not for like that's not a home run bet. That's just like I'm just telling you. I mean, he always gets lifted because the he's still in the brewers, right? They're still platoon him. Yeah, he's still in the. He's still platoon him all the time. So we'll see how that

16:41goes. Let me just see. Let me see who I have. And then you can kind of judge with me. But like, I want to see. I'm looking at this. The hint is that he's our boy, but I don't know. I don't know if you'll get it, but that's that's that's a tough one. There are. I'm just looking at who did really well in the spring training and did well recently in spring training. I can't give you another hint because I would give it away. No, no, no, that's totally fine. Is it is it a it is not an expensive home run price? So it's cheap. It's below four to one. Shorter than four to one. Yeah. Correct. Is it is it? Is it a is it a is it Roman Anthony? No, it was junior common error. Yeah, I like it. I don't know. It's on the road. So I'm a little bit. I know. I'm not a liver tore fan. I might. But yeah, it was like 333. I'm like,

17:42yeah, common errors are guy. He's made us enough money for me to back up and opening that. Yeah, he was my he does show up on here. Let me just look at this. He was good in spring training too. Yeah, he was good. Oh, you go figure you're very good in spring training. I know. So, oh, you know, I think I might do. I don't know where you're going with this. Yes, you do. Okay. Okay. Here's my home run pick guys. San Basilio Baltimore. I was going to guess that. Yeah, okay. I mean, you could have. But yeah, let me I got plus 450. Okay. There we go. So San Basilio is who you're going to go with. There we go. If he if he had some bomb, though, we're probably the only people that have given out Basilio home run today. So keep that in mind. Yeah, that's fine. We're going to do a Basilio home run. And then we might as well. I mean, I get I assume, you know, I guess we got to take the. We'll sprinkle on this on his total basis too. Yeah, that works. I see Benedict saying that he literally won't bend anything baseball if you don't tell him to do it.

18:45All right. Well, we have one. Let's get to the recap of what we're on. We'll tell him. So yeah, there you go. Benedict, by the way, was in Vegas. I got to meet him. And then he disappeared on the Friday. And I asked him. He's like, I had no idea you guys went to Westgate. You just said him that it's like, Oh, I thought you like left Vegas. No, but then it actually did get to meet in person, which is pretty cool. So there we go. Uh, anything else you want to mention? Uh, Joe, as I tell you every single time, the wind is completely overrated. It's outside of Chicago. Do you know what? I wasn't going to mention that for wind. I know Bush isn't exactly the best hitter's ballpark become an African. He did that anywhere. It's more of a pain. Yeah. Well, it's more camera. Uh, yeah, I just, I don't know. Like that's not my favorite. And I get it. But it's more of just like, don't let the wind be, don't let, don't care about wind. No, it was mainly me just wanting to take common error again, sleep or tour who I think can get shelter in this game. So it's kind of where I'll go. Do you have solid spring? Yeah, but I know. But by the way, look, look, we, we actually do have common error. You know why? Because we have

19:47silver slugger for him. Yeah. So guys, the machine. So we'll see what happens. But anything else you want to mention or is that it? Nope. Uh, I think I'm good to go. Cool. That's going to wrap it up for our plays and the home runs time to move on into our best bets. And of course, Unirdog, for getting to those things or mind of the Rock 2 by rhythm, official data tool for dominating the madness of college hoops, they also have baseball. So if you want some thoughts on some player props, check out rhythm as well. They can help you with baseball. But a reminder, you want to go premium with your membership, use the code, it's been 25. We down the rhythm app, for nice discount, get a code on for a month at rhythm with the use promo code, it's been 25. So once again, rhythm promo code SGPM25. We're also run by Novik, which is of course America's number one sports position market, get some great prices, lots of juice juice for baseball as well to check it out there down the app. The great sign of the you'll spend five bucks to 50 bucks for the funds. We sign up for the code SGPM. That's Novik promo code SGPM and last but not least, check out merch madness, get nice discount of 15% of everything in the SGPM merch store code

20:52march at checkout. So check out the prop cast merchandise and we'll be gaming podcast merchandise, a lot of stuff there. But once again, use code march to checkout for a nice discount on the SGPM merch store. Cut as the premiere appeared appear betting platform allowing you to bet sports against anyone, even me Sean second the money green cut is the ultimate put your money where your mouth is platform plus cut has just added casino games. That's right. Blackjack slots and more best part is cut is available in 40 plus states. Get cut in the app store or go to play.cut.com use promo code SGPM to receive a 20% deposit bonus. That's cut promo code SGPM. Put your money where your mouth is on cut. Welcome back everyone to the prop cast finished going through our props for the show time to move on into our best bets. Adam what is going to be your best bet for the show? Pizza candy two case. And what's on there? Even money. There you go. James Wood of course

21:55our guide strike out a bunch in that game. For my best bet, it's either going to be swarrows it's going to be swarrows outs or Smith under strikeouts. I mean, the swarrows price is really good but Smith has been so horrific in spring training. I think I'll go swarrows. It's the price. It's 125. He was terrible against left these cliches and nasty. He's going to throw him a bunch of sliders and you're going to see swarrows fall out of his shoes on a couple of those swings. Give me swarrows and no hits of plus 125 as my best bet for the show. Moving on to underdog are we just recycling a couple of plays that we already have? We are. I remember how I said I was going to get a text 10 minutes before the show from somebody about asking me for the place. Yeah. Yeah. I just got that one from Ryan Kramer. We are back. And I said to him, he says Pico Armstrong not real and I said yes and also his mom is the mom and little big league and he's bet his right. It's very true. That's definitely the movie underrated kids. Oh, really good really good movie too. Also, that guy was the wizard in the wizard. California. That guy.

23:04Anyway, let's let's kind of do this. So okay. Do you want to take some stuff from like some like rhythms? Like the best baseball player on that twin steam was the brother. You got to sell this farm, right? Yeah, you got to sell this farm. Okay. So I liked you. Okay, Jacob Young. Yeah. Nothing. Jacob Young, nothing. Correct. Donovan. Yeah. Single. Sure. And rhythm really likes Otani single and I can absolutely get behind that. Sure. Why not? Let's take that too. Cool. Without any boosts. This is a 7 casual 7.08. All right. This is Jacob Young lower 0.5 hits. Shohei Otani higher 0.5 singles, Brendan Donovan higher 0.5 singles. Cool. And that's going to wrap it up for the show. Once again,

24:10we're back to baseball. We're going to back once again tomorrow. So we're going to do the same thing over again tomorrow for baseball. But Adam, before officially on the show, can you just recap or replace one more time? Yeah. Brendan Donovan single. Nick Povetta under 15 and a half outs. And James Wood two case. And for me, give me Jacob Young, no hits plus 105. Shane Smith under 4 net strikeouts at minus 105. And Suarez, no hits at plus 125. I still can't believe that price. Anyway, until next time, good luck to all of you and all of your bets. Bye, everyone. Cut is the premier peer-to-peer betting platform allowing you to bet sports against anyone. Even me, Sean, second the money green. Cut is the ultimate. Put your money where your mouth is platform plus cut has just added casino games. That's right. Blackjack slots and more. Best part is cut is available in 40 plus states. Get cut in the app store or go to play.cut.com.

25:17Use promo code SGPN to receive a 20% deposit bonus. That's cut promo code SGPN. Put your money where your mouth is on cut SGPN is powered by my bookie dot a G bet on anything anywhere anytime at my bookie dot a G and make sure you use that promo code SGPN for 100% bet back bonus up to $500 for new customers. Teas and seas. Do apply but my bookie is great. Easy access. You can get to it anywhere and lightning fast payouts and deposits using that sweet sweet crypto currency. Love using my bookie. The prop builder, second and none live betting in game wagering. It is amazing. Love me some my bookie. Everyone ask me Sean, who's your bookie? My bookie is my bookie. So head over to my bookie dot a G and use that promo code SGPN.