Inside The Data: What Does A Projection Model Forecast For The Eagles In 2026?

0:00Hello, everyone. Welcome to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds. I'm Jeff Mosher. And of course, we have Sam Finkel with us and listen. We are just now a couple of days away from the Eagles opening up their season against the Washington commanders at the link and what Sam did was he wanted to confuse everybody by throwing some strange models. I'm throwing some strange model at them. No, just kidding, Sam. What we're going to get into is statistical analytical data that projects the record for the Eagles and also win probability against all their opponents, along with some other things that we'll get into in the podcast. And this is going to require Sam from you. So we're going to get into a bit of an explanation on what is called the Monte Carlo simulation model, the number of simulations. And then of course, why probability might change from one opponent to another, even if it's the same opponent in a different week. So what was your impetus behind doing this specific project?

1:13I wanted to know. I went through a couple ideas and I kind of settled on just I've always wanted to map out how like assimilated run through the season a bunch of times based on certain win probabilities and kind of see how it does. This admittedly, this is the first time I've ever built one of these models. So this is going to be kind of fun to talk about. I do know about them obviously, but I just I think it's fun to actually build. Sure. So explain your process. First of all, explain itself, the Monte Carlo simulation model and explain the process that you went through to come up with win probability against all the opponents and for the season. Yeah. So essentially, it's just like running through some sort of it's getting the expected value out of basically random samples. It takes a subset of samples and it tried it averages them to get the expected value. That's essentially what it is. So this one I essentially use the Eagle season and I did a thousand times random sample thousand times and average amount.

2:21So first I gave the Eagles and each of their opponents a strength rating based on the betting market projections, which all have the Eagles around 10 and a half wins. So I will display that later. It'll it'll make sense, but this kind of gave an estimate how good each team would be on a neutral field. So that's kind of the baseline there. And then for every game I compared the Eagles rating with their opponents rating and adjusted what for whether it was home away or a neutral site. And that produced a projected point spread. And then I converted that by multiplying it by a multiplier to get a win probability. Instead of simply saying that the Eagles will win a game. So like when you'll see the model there's for game week one, there's a 71.4% win probability against the commanders. It just means that like seven out of every 10 simulations. That's kind of how it came up. And then I simulated the entire season a thousand times using those game by game probabilities. And that allows us to see the Eagles average projected record.

3:27The records occur, which ones occur most frequently and the probability that they reach each benchmark. I have a couple on there like 10 plus 11 plus 12 plus, et cetera. And right now the model projects 10.5 wins. Oh, you're getting you're getting ahead here. I just wanted to understand. I like you're saving the good stuff for later. But I think it's important to say it now because for one reason, okay, one reason I think it's important. And again, I will get into that. But the reason I think it's important is because that is what the market says, right? But it's really important to caveat that it agrees with the model and the only and the model is certainly influencing it. But based on the end, it can be somewhat circular as I'm saying is because I used as an input that 10.5 number and then adjusted it for each matchup. So it kind of it's biased by that model. That's that's the reason I think it's really important to say now. But the model still supports that 10.5 is a fair starting point. So it's like a market calibrated baseline that essentially started with.

4:31And from that baseline, the math, doing the season a thousand times and after converting each of their opponent scores, it still ends up about where the market is, which is the only reason I thought it was important to kind of bring up now. Okay, makes sense. We're where are because we like to be objective with everything we do. Where are the flaws in the model besides the obvious like if you lose your starting quarterback for 16 games or season, you know, that's going to impact your your win projection for sure. But other, any other areas that the model has flowed? Yeah, I mean, there's a couple ways that that's a really big one. There's certain things like, you know, especially later in the season, they bench players, weather is not affected in this at all. That's a big one and it's hard to project this far out. I would say again, the fact that I used, you know, the projected win loss and strength the schedule from big. I really debated using last year's win loss record. But again, it's just too hard to attribute, especially when there's coaching changes.

5:32And it's giving a lot of credit to the betting markets, which I don't typically love to do. Yeah, that's fair. So I do want to, like, which is why I thought that 10 and a half was really important to say in the beginning, because that is a huge flaw with this because it's reliant on that assumption. Also, it only has a certain number of assumptions, right? It has, you know, I didn't use that many variables. I could have used a bunch of variables. But it doesn't have that many variables. So, and there are so many variables in the game of football. So I think that that's a really, you know, anything that you can think of that affects a football game that day, that week. Yeah. Break out player, right? I mean, you can't break out player. It could have a huge like a Jackson Smith and jigba last year for the Seahawks. We knew he was a first round pick and was a good player. But, you know, it almost 1700 and almost 1800 yards himself. Right. So those are some things that are probably difficult to be predictive with with some of the modeling when you're just talking about overall team success, because individual breakouts can influence hugely.

6:39And it's a great success. Quarterbacks, especially regression. Right. Same point. Same point. Yeah. Okay. Good stuff. We'll bring up the charts in a second. It was one other question. Oh, yes. So like when you run these models a thousand times for you, you're obviously not using an advocates. We're in the world of computers. How long does all that take? It didn't take me that long because it there's a computer program. You just ran a generator. Okay. Basically great stuff. So fantastic. All right. I will bring up all the hard work that you have done here in street for so our friends on YouTube can follow along. That is not one. I will say I apologize for, you know, saying the conclusion this early for their listeners, but there's more excited stuff. Oh, there's. Yeah. Absolutely. Okay. I just think it's important to caveat model flaws, etc. So for sure. For sure. All right. So we're going to try to shrink this to get to the whole schedule on one screen. Right.

7:44So I want to call those simulation model. Why is it called that, by the way? That I'm not 100% sure. I remember it's actually so funny. My dad gave me his textbooks from when he was in college. And I remember he is a statistics textbook and that was one of the first models I ever read about. So I always wanted to do one. And I'm really glad I got to apply it here. So as well as our week. So you have each opponent by week where the game is being played. And in the right column is the win probability that you have color coded. I do have dark green, light green, red, and do you want to go with like beige for the yellow? How do you see that? Yeah, it's yellow. And then there's orange one as well. Oh, yeah. So how did you decide which colors were going to do to signify what? Yeah, I mean anything under 50% was going to be red. Anything in the 50% to, you know, 59.9% is going to be orange.

8:52Anything in the 60% is going to be yellow. Anything over like 70% is green. And then anything that was like close to 80 or higher. I wanted to do darker green. I probably should have kept the cardinals game. The lighter green, but I just I wanted to highlight it. So I kept it. Gotcha. So basically anything yellowish to green to dark green is an assumed win for the Eagles, right? Yeah, the probability for sure. Right. According to the computers, we'll say according to the computer. Yeah, four five six. And then so that would be the eight, not like you said, well, I believe there's 11 of those games that in general have that color, right? Right. And then there's the four reds that will get into in a second. The one orange. That's five. That's a that's a 55% or right, which is close and my missing one, one, two, three, so it's also I'm sorry. So there must be. The cold one is blue. No, that's a green. It's green. Yeah. Green dark green. I guess there were 12 then between. That would make sense. Yeah, yeah, 12 and then the okay, then the five were under 50%. Okay, or 55% and under I should say fall is the season where everyone gets busier, more calls, more customers, more chances for something to slip through the cracks and staying ahead means having the right system, not just working harder.

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12:34I like how you did that there. Let's go through them really quickly. But my first question would be, OK, why would the model say that the Eagles are 71% chance to win on Sunday week one against the commanders. However, when they meet in a week, it's down to 60% chance. That's an 11% drop. I understand that it's at Washington, right? And you did say home road will factor in. But what else would lead for that to be an 11% difference? That is the largest factor in there. It certainly is because again, I didn't use that many variables. So that it's pretty easy to determine where the swings come from. And it really just factored in that home way split. And that's that's a big part of it. So week one week two commanders then at Titans, they have a 71% win probability against the commanders, only a 66% win against the Titans. I would have I think that I would even think that the market, the models would think the commanders were better than the Titans this year.

13:43So I assume that that's six point differential isn't bigger because it's in natural. Yeah, that again, the home way split is probably overexaggerated in this model. But again, it's only because I didn't use that many variables. So it's one of it. There's a reason that this wing would be there. It would be interesting if I flipped it. I wonder how would it would be? Sure. Probably almost 80% against the Titans. I imagine. Right. Okay. So as we move on, it's not great. With the models say about the week three week four stretch at Chicago, followed by the Rams week four. I think Chicago is the Monday night game. I know it's a night game. Right? Yeah. Yeah. Follow by. By the way, does that the shortened week or days of rest? Is that factor all it into? It's just all potentially factoring into the betting markets. How they? It's probably factored into the betting markets. One would implicit in the model.

14:43But I really didn't use that many variables just because I wanted to get something out that's pretty easy and digestible. But yeah, I mean, it probably will affect. I mean, definitively will affect. You know, the performance of the players, but it's not it's implicit in the model because it's in the wind totals, but it's not actually a variable in the model itself. Right. So interestingly, the models have the egos of two and oh, but then two and two theoretically after four games with losses to the bears and the Rams. And then they don't have a predicted under 50% or even under 55% until we get to week 12. So that's that's it's like kind of a rough start, but then a nice smooth sailing there in the middle theoretically. I mean in one. In if you ran this in the 1000 times, it happens in the, you know, the attributed percentage of times. Right. I mean, you did run this 1000 times. I did. I did run like the. The numbers of wherever curious about we just pull a random sample. Oh, like you mean example for you mean like the Rams like how many of the 1000.

15:44Yeah, so if you want to like 972 they start off they win the first game, lose the second, win the third, lose the fourth, lose the fifth win. That's a pretty bad model. They only had eight wins in that model, but still I mean that I have the actual numbers. If you want to pick a random number, I wouldn't even know where to start. I almost said you you pick one that you found was interesting. I mean there there was one model. I mean when we ran it the 13th time, the Eagle start out 123456 and L. Uh huh. Uh they lost the seventh game against the Cowboys. Uh huh. They won the eighth and then they kept going alternating and then they finished off the season. So I mean, it finished 13 wins on the season. It's one of the better model 13, I mean simulation 13 produced 13 total wins.

16:47Oh, no, there's a bunch. I mean it ranges pretty heavily. I mean, I think I have the when we go lower in the chart, it'll it'll say, but I think the most wins I had on there was 16. Oh my god. And it happened 0.1% of the time. Okay. And the lowest I think I had was four wins. Uh huh. And that also happened 0.1% of the time. Interesting. All right. Then I'm really interested to get to that part where we say what the models say about their likeliest. Uh number of wins. Yeah. We already kind of covered that a little bit. Well, because that's what the Monte Carlo is good at, right? It takes what you're expected value is, right? I mean, it it models at the 1000 times and then averages the outcomes. That's that's really what the model does. Right. All right. As they get into the second part of their schedule, weeks 5 6, 7, 8, Jags in London, then the Panthers, then the Cowboys at home, both of those at home and then at the commanders again crazy how they finished off the commanders in the first day weeks when they didn't even play them until week, what 16 last year.

17:55The models all look good in those now the Panthers one is a little more lopsided over 70% Jags Cowboys commanders all around 60% which why you have a little you don't have that green. You have that like a light that light yellow color because those are kind of coin 60% is not exactly like a commanding convincing percentage. Exactly. It's all within that coin flip range. They have a lot of coin clips, which is right. You know, this the models come out weird. The simulations itself run that come out a little bit weird sometimes. Sure. All right. That home game, by the way, just to as to go off our last conversation, there are 61% win probability against the Cowboys in Philly. So you can imagine what it would be like as we get a little lower when it's in Dallas, it's going to change because we've seen already that's a big difference here in the win probability comes out. All right, then then it's kind of a weird take your pick right from 9 10 11 12 and 13 you got home versus giants home versus Steelers at the Cowboys at the Cardinals home versus Colts and we have literally every single color option here in there.

19:10So that really becomes a whereas week weeks one through four, you know, it looks a little bit more cut and dried per percentages weeks five six seven eighth same thing you're feeling good about the at least being favored in every game based on the percentages. Then 9 10 11 12 13 it's like it's a whole different world there. Yeah, absolutely. Any one of those percentages that really stick out or jumped out to you? Well, I think week 13 against the Cardinals is interesting because it's in a way game and yet they're still the highest projections. So I just just shows that the markets are not very favorable to the Cardinals this year, which is particularly shocking, but right. Just a home game that game might be closer to like 90%. Easily could of the for sure. I will say that the Eagles strike the schedule at least based on last season is 16.

20:12So I just I think that's worth saying just at this point just because it's interesting to see if the how this model would have affected other teams, you know, I think the Cowboys have a tougher schedule. I remember correctly when I was looking at it. So I mean, and I think the NFC East has around that range around like I think 12 to 20 something. So yeah, yeah, you know, the Cowboys kind of got hurt in a weird way because of their second place schedule. Some would argue that their second place schedule is tougher than the Eagles first place schedule because teams like the Ravens last year, right, finished in second place. I think the bills finishing second to the Patriots who finished second in the NFC North. It was the it was the Bears wanted was it the Packers. I think it was the Packers. Yeah, I think it was the Packers, so it's just never an easy opponent by any stretch, right. And the the Rams finished second in the NFC West if I'm not mistaken to the sea.

21:12So yeah, you have a lot of second place teams there that's like, oh man, that's those are not easy teams right there at all, at all. All right, as we go into the bottom part of the schedule, Colts, week 14, Seahawks, week 15, Texans 16 at Niners at giant 17 18. It looks like the models are saying, I'm surprised the models give them such an edge over the Colts at 71%. I thought that would be something in the 60s a little higher than I thought Sam. Yeah, me too. I wonder what the wind total is projected for the Colts. I have to raw data somewhere, but sure. Culture around 7.5. Just seven and a half wins. Okay, so all right. I mean, I that that's fair. So if you if the models say the Colts are only a 7.5 win team and it's in Philly, you could see why it would be a 71% winning percentage. Niners at Niners under 50%. We know that's always a that's a tough road trip. It's a good team.

22:15What is the Niners win projected total for the market? Let's take a look. I'm going to guess nine and a half. You should be a betting man. It's exactly that. Texans 60. Texans is well, it's at home, right? So obviously if that game at that, these are one of the beige games or the light yellow games where the home roads puts really matter because if it was in Houston, it would probably be a red game for the Eagles. 100% would be. Yeah. Right. Let's put the Texans win total. I would say. I'm going to be a living in a half. Night and a half. Wow. Okay. I guess I'm not a betting man. Well, I mean stick with the NFC. You'll be all right. Yeah. I guess so. And then of course the season ends at the Giants. That's going to be a fascinating. I really do think it's going to be an interesting game. I'm going to hover around the 500 mark for a lot of the year and just be decent enough so that maybe week 18 for them could be in a wildcard birth.

23:26Yeah. You know, like they might be a game out or a game, but they need two other teams to lose also. You know, I can see the race for the seventh seed has been pretty interesting for the last three years. Yeah. I mean, their win total projection is also is seven and a half. Right. So I mean, it's not terribly far off, but I don't know. I think the thing is, I think if it's going to be a team from the NFC East that's not the Eagles like in that spot, I don't think it's the Giants. I feel more comfortable saying it's the Cowboys. I would agree. I would agree. It's more likely the Cowboys. All right. So who among the Eagles opponents does have the highest projected win total. And why is it the Rams? Well, I mean, the, the, the, the, the, the, the second highest behind the Rams. Well, the Rams are at 11 and a half. And you think about it. I mean, they have made some huge acquisitions and unretirements on that defensive line.

24:27And they're, they're pretty exciting teams. So I think that's a big part of it. Who is the second highest? That's a good question. On the Eagle schedule, I would think by this chart, it would be the Bears or the, well, maybe the, maybe the Niners. So, so the Bears Cowboys, Niners and Texans are all tied. I wonder if it's the former Super Bowl champions. Oh, yeah, it makes sense. Yeah. See you. Okay. Yeah. Makes a lot of sense. All right. Good stuff. Let us go on to some of the other things that you put together that are really fascinating. We've got the model summary, right, which tells us expected wins and losses, which we covered a little bit. And then also probability of each number of wins. I love this. This is great. Let's go with the left side. Would explain the left side here. Yeah, I mean, the expected wins is that expected value that the model projected, right?

25:29And then the expected losses is just, you know, the subtraction from the actual games. This is pretty easy. But basically what it's saying is that out of it averaged all the outcomes of the 1000 and the average expected the expected wins is 10 and a half, which again is what was projected by most of the betting platforms anyway. And then what's interesting is the most common record for them was 11 and 6. So out of all of them, that's the most frequent, the mode. That's what comes out with the expected value is lower than that. But the most frequent one was 11 and 6. Hey, it makes sense. Adam and I, you know, we did our projections the other day and we tried to, you know, give our guesses. And I think he, I came at, I kept saying, I'm stuck between 11 and 12 wins and, you know, so 11 and 6 and 12 and 5. And that's kind of where I see it. And again, there are some biases in the model that we already talked about that are definitely impact this number. But I do think it's a reasonable, you know, model modeling of this.

26:35What I think is interesting though is those these benchmarks that I created, which are like the chance of 10 plus wins, the chance of 11 plus wins, chances 12. Yeah. And so they, when you look at 10 plus, it gives it almost a 70% probability based on those probabilities that we had above and based on when it ran it the 1000 times the 11 plus it goes down to about 51%. Right. And then when you drop it drops even more than it goes to 30% and then it goes to 15% of 13. But if you were to look at it differently, you would say the models say they have a 45% chance of winning at least 12 games, right? A 45% chance of winning. No, I can't do it that way. So I was sort of combining the percentage of winning 12 or more games at 31% and the percentage of winning 13 or more at 50% and adding them together thinking that you could then say, you got a 45.

27:35But I don't know if it works that way. No, unfortunately, but I do think this. I mean, you might have the information in front of you. I don't know how many teams have a 15.7% chance of winning 13 or more games. That's very fair. Yeah. I would say that they're on this model for teams. Sorry, I interrupt you. Yeah, no, it's okay. I was just saying I didn't run this model for other teams, but I can't imagine it would be that many agreed. Well, I think obviously it goes about saying it's obvious, but it is good to know if you're worried about doom and gloom according to your your models projections, the Eagles winning four or three or fewer games is at 0.0% four or fewer 0.1% and five or fewer at 0.8%. So if you're worried about the Eagles having a year like the commanders had last year, it would be one of the most unpredictable phenomenon ever. Yes. Yeah. Based on this model itself and based on all the markets and everything, it's almost it would be a crazy scenario. It's unlikely, very, very unlikely.

28:47Contastrophe must have to happen. Sure. And so what do you see as their biggest win probability here? Yeah, I think it's between 10 and 11, right? So I mean, 11 was the was the modes that's at a 20.2%. But I think easy, you can see between 10 and 11 seems to be kind of the big split. I could see it. Honestly, anywhere from 9 to 12 is reasonable. I do think 10 or 11 makes the most sense to me. Got it. Awesome. And for those who really have big, big expectations of an undefeated season, 0.0% chance the Eagles are doing that and just a 0.1% chance of winning 16 or more. Hey, though, there is a 4.2% chance of 14 or more wins. That's true. That's true. The way the way the way I know Eagles fans in the way I've seen some predictions, I think they there would be more if you pulled like 1000 Eagles fans and ask them what the record is, you'd get more than 4.2% saying 14 or more wins. I suspect that I suspect that too. But again, models don't play football, right? They're just a good approximation, but they don't play football like that has to be said to.

29:55Right. So this is now in bar graph form. Same thing. Yeah, same thing. And it just shows you that the 11 win mark is the highest at close to 20% 10 win mark is right around there at 19% and you know, the 0 win mark. You don't even see any bar because it's 0%. Yeah. Awesome. Hey, family fans, game day is stressful enough parking traffic, long lines. We've all been there. But when it comes to your cannabis, Camden apothecary makes it. Easy. This is the dispensary for sports fans. Just minutes outside of Philly with plenty of free parking. You'll be in and out fast, no hassle, no waiting. And they don't just care about convenience. Camden apothecary is all about the guest experience. Their staff makes sure you feel taken care of every time you walk in. Plus they carry only the best quality cannabis at the fairest prices. So whether you're stocking up for the tailgate, the watch party or celebrating a big win, you know you're getting the good stuff without overpaying. They even show love to the community with specials for fans, students, service members and health care pros. Camden apothecary top quality cannabis, great prices and an experience made for Philly fans 21 and up.

31:14So this is really interesting. Good stuff. I will wonder if people feel validated, feel good, feel bad about a projection of somewhere around 11 wins, you know, 10 to 11 wins. I mean, I think expectations are a little higher. I agree with winning the Super Bowl two years ago, but I also think people realistically understand that there's some newness here, especially with you offense. There's some offensive line health questions and that you don't have to win 13 or more games to be in the Super Bowl, right? Sure helps, but no one was proposing that. What about what was your thought after you finished doing the data here? Yeah, I mean, I just I thought it was reasonable. Like what did you what was your prediction for the Eagles in 2026? I would have thought 12 wins. I would have felt pretty good about that, but I I'm comfortable with this model and the projection, but also understanding that again, it is a circular model, right?

32:20I think it's relying on that 10 and a half win total to some extent. So I do understand Vegas doesn't know everything, but they do know a lot. And that's why they take a lot of money from people either way. I would have probably if I had to guess I would have guessed it would be a little bit on the higher side. And this model, my personal prediction probably will be a little bit higher than the model, but I'm very comfortable with where this model put. Are you are you uncomfortable with a particular own self projection of 13 or more wins? I would be uncomfortable with more than 13. I think 13 is doable. I think the Eagles could easily. I'm not easily they could do that. I think anything over that is unlikely. Yeah, possible, but I'm like possible. It's just it's a big difference because you know 11 to 12 feels like a team that will be in the divisional round if not the conference championship.

33:2013 or more wins feels like a team that should be in the Super Bowl. Right. Like definitely in the conference championship and good shot to be in the Super Bowl. So 100% and the thing is they just they have some tough stretches. I think that that's to me like I think their coin flips they could stack right like if they lose both week three and week four. That doesn't feel great and then that you can lose momentum like there are other factors in there. But if they split the coin like there's there's just a couple really, really tough stretches on the schedule that I just don't see them coming out on skate. I just don't think there's a world where they win those all the games in the top stretches. Right. And it wouldn't be the Eagles without losing a game that they seemingly should win. I think I think to your point weeks five six seven and eight where they have three coin flip games and then I guess a gimmick with the panthers at 71% but Jagg 60% Cal boys 61% and at commanders at 60%

34:22is it going to be very tell tale for this day. I think we'll know a lot and like you said you win more than you lose and if you can if you can quote unquote win one of those projected losses against either the Rams of the Bears but you win like you said you stack some some coin flip games you're good. Yeah, if it's the reverse you're not you're you're really hoping that things pick up in the second half. Absolutely and I just think a lot of this depends on how this new offense operates. Sure. If the defense can perform where they were last year I mean there's a lot of things that there there are things that need to be worked out and you know they really didn't play any obviously any starters in the preseason so I there's going to be a little bit of a slower start potentially I think that that's a fair we talked about it in another episode I've you talked about it you know in separate podcasts it's just it's it'll be interesting. There's a lot of unknowns for sure. All right, this is exciting this this announcement because next week when you hear from Sam and I you're going to have actual real live game data and game data coverage and analytics to go through because we'll be not only will there be one but there will be two inside

35:32the day is next week one is going to recap the season opener against the commanders in the next one will preview their week two game against the Titans so this is it this is the last of the conjecture analytics pods we will have real tangible football to go over with from an analytics level and I'm really excited for it. We do. All right, great for Sam Finkel I'm Jeff Mosher you've been watching inside the data on inside the birds and we will catch you on the next one. you