How Trump is dominating Quebec's election campaign

0:00Frequency podcast network. Stories that matter, podcast that resonate. It was supposed to be an election campaign about holding a third independence referendum. Now it's Canadian independence that's front of mind for voters. President Trump is my principal opponent. Trump's escalating trade war against Canada in the apparent breakdown of negotiations over French language rights have given Quebec premier Christine Feshette the life line she needs. After she took the helm of a party on popular after eight years in power, giving rise to the party Quebec-qua. But even as Feshette tries to put the U.S. President on the October election ballot, Quebec's separatist party is still leading in the polls, keeping alive a high stake sovereignty debate in that province. I'm Karen Siolin and today on the big story I'm speaking with Eric Grenier,

1:03author of the RIT.ca and co-host of the numbers podcast to discuss the Trump effect on Quebec's election campaign and why threat to Canadian sovereignty may not be enough to unite a deeply divided electorate. Eric, welcome to the big story. Thank you so much for making time for the conversation. Happy to be here. The campaign for the October election began just days after the collapse of trade talks. We had the Prime Minister out there telling Canadians, French language rights had become this contentious issue and had contributed to the breakdown of negotiations. How did all of that reshape the election campaign in Quebec? It had a pretty big impact. Heading into the beginning of the election, the Pertzika Biquat was still leading in the polls. They were still very much favored to win the election. The Liberals, the Quebec Liberals who are the opposition party in the province were in second place and the governing CAQ while they had recovered with new leader Christian Feshette who came in earlier this year. They were still

2:08well out of the running in terms of being in contention to win this election. But we did see that over the first few days of the campaign and in the run up to the campaign that there was a bump in support for the CAQ, an increase in support for Christian Feshette as well. We've seen that the last set of polls have put really the PQ in a minority position at the very best and has shown momentum for the CAQ. While we have also indications that Christian Feshette has been getting better personal polling numbers, we've seen that she's trusted a little bit more than the PQ leader, Paul St. Pierre-Plebonne-Donne, to handle the trade fallout from the negotiations with the United States. The PQ is still the fair between the election, but it has made this a race between the PQ and the CAQ and it has changed the conversation in Quebec where it is a lot about the economy, a lot about certainty and what the Pratt path forward will be for the government versus a referendum

3:08on the last eight years of CAQ government. Yeah, what's fascinating to me and hugely ironic is that this was supposed to be a provincial campaign that hinged on holding a third independence referendum and now it's Canadian independence that's front of mind for voters. I mean, that's got to be a huge problem for the PQ, no? Yeah, it is a problem for the PQ in the sense that if this election had been about change primarily, then I think they would have been in a strong position. We've seen polling that suggests that Quebecers really don't want to have another referendum support for sovereignty in the province has dropped to under 30%. So a referendum election on the actual referendum was going to be always a problem for the PQ, it gives them a pretty low ceiling in terms of how much support they can get, but it also does give them a higher floor because sovereignness in the province will see the PQ as their vehicle. So what the PQ was hoping to do during this campaign is to just extract from the issue of an independence referendum and make it just about

4:08the CAQ government. Christian Frescheche came in as premier earlier this year replacing Fonswell De Gaulle, but Fonswell De Gaulle was really, really unpopular. He had dissatisfaction levels that were over 70%, the CAQ was polling in the low teens, they were on track to being completely wiped out. So as long as PQ was able to keep the focus on the CAQ, then Quebecers might have been able to put aside the issue of the referendum long enough for them to win that campaign. But now that it is instead about the future of Quebec's place within Canada in the sense of Canada being a united country faced against the threats of the United States, this has really changed things because now it's not so much about getting rid of the CAQ government, it's about who do Quebecers trust lead the province through this time of uncertainty. And I do have questions about that in a moment, but just to be clear, the Trump effect has put a premier Frescheche party back in contention now then. Yeah, absolutely. A couple of polls have had them only a few points behind. And in leading in some regions of the province, you'd still put the PQ as the favorite to win because they do still

5:11lead in the polls, but it's no longer a situation where it's a certain PQ win. And with the amount of votes that we see that move between the PQ and the CAQ, but also between the CAQ and the Liberals, there doesn't need to be a lot of further change in the polls in the next few weeks to really transform the shape of the race. Premier Frescheche, her path is very similar to that of Prime Minister Carney's. Both parties took over, our party, me, both leaders took over parties that were doomed to electoral catastrophe. They both have the advantage of income and see she now seems kind of poised to benefit from from the escalating trade war with the US. Like, what are your models telling you? And I know you say the PQ is still the favorite to win, but what are your models telling you about perhaps her chances of being able to pull off an upset kind of like Carney did in 2025? There's there pretty well. They're a lot better than they were at the beginning of the year. Let's just put it that way. My my lace projections would give the CQ a roughly one in three chance of

6:12being able to win the election when if we had talked just a few months ago, it would have been zero. There was no chance they were going to win the election. They now got to close enough that they are within spitting distance of the PQ and with the support the CQ has among older voters, they are more likely to outperform the polls because the parties that get more support from older voters means they get support from people actually go out and vote. So the CQ does have that as an advantage. That is similar to the Mark Carney Liberals where the Liberals, one of the reasons they did so well in the last federal election is that they had support from older Canadians. We're seeing that the same kind of electorate, the same kind of electorate that is concerned about uncertainties, concerned about what this means for the economy. They have been moving back to the CQ primarily away from the Quebec Liberals rather than from the PQ, but in a way that really does give the CQ a chance. One big difference though is that Mark Carney came from outside of the liberal party. He was not a cabinet minister in Justin Trudeau's government. Kostin Fleshet was one of the major cabinet ministers in France where the goes government. So she is still

7:14tired a little bit with the unpopularity with the CQ and that's why during this election they've been styling themselves as L'Équip, Chris Infreschec, so Christine Freschec's team rather than the CQ. They largely tried to avoid mentioning the name of the party and the logo has changed not even have the letter CQ at it. That's interesting. I want to ask you about how she opened the campaign because the headline that was seen across Canada was her saying that President Donald Trump is her real opponent. I wonder more broadly firstly how do most Quebecers feel about that and feel about the Trump administration? Do they agree with that? That it's Donald Trump on the ballot? Well, they certainly don't like Donald Trump. We've seen polling in Quebec and across Canada has support for Donald Trump being extremely, extremely low. That is especially the case in Quebec. Polling that was done after the collapse of the negotiations showed that Quebecers were among the most likely to say that there was the right decision to pull out of that. So there isn't a lot of love for Donald Trump in Quebec.

8:15Whether a lot of voters will say that this is primarily campaign about Donald Trump, that I'm not so sure. I do think that it has helped Christine Freschec, but got to put this in context. When Marc Cerny and Liberals were catching fire with that mood of patriotism in Canada, the Liberals were at 40, 45% support. The best polls for the CQ only have them at around 24 to 27%. So it is still a bit of a hard sell for a lot of Quebecers who have been fed up with the CQ, but with such a divided electorate, it's possible that a party could win the election with 30%. So that kind of message, just appealing to that core of the vote that is going to be primarily concerned with what Donald Trump's threats to Canada mean for the future of the province, for the future of the economy. That is something that can resonate with enough voters to make the difference. I wonder what the implications are for the PQ. They are still eating in the polls, as you say, but they have historically framed the federal government as their main opponent. This is

9:21an institution. They argue that is marginalizing Quebec. Now you have this Prime Minister who's emerged as defender in chief of the French language. How is the PQ walking that tight rope of backing a federal government that public opinion at this time backs, but has also been a traditional adversary? Yeah, it is a very delicate balancing act for the belts to give you what, because they don't like the federal government. They don't like Marc Cerny. They don't and their voter base doesn't like Marc Cerny or the federal government. The PQ is at the moment largely being supported by the sovereignist movement in Quebec, and that is a limit on the party. We've seen when Paul Sanfierre Plemondeau is questioning the version of events from Marc Cerny in terms of how the negotiations fell apart, the role of the French language in those negotiations. He was putting himself up against a politician who is far more popular than him in Quebec. It might be hard to believe, but Marc Cerny, when he's tested and compared to other leaders in Quebec,

10:23is the most popular politician in the province. Paul Sanfierre Plemondeau is not. He does have people who like him quite a bit, but he is a bit more of a polarizing figure that he has some people who like him and a lot of people who don't like him. So if he's trying to convince Quebecers that the person that trusts is not Marc Cerny, it's him. He's up against it because Quebecers are for the moment. They're backing the prime minister in his approach, and we just saw it in a bi-election earlier this week that even in a place like Eschcutimil-a-Fjall, which is in the region where the Perticecabitquois was hoping to do quite well, the Liberals were able to get over 50% of the vote. So the PQ has to be very careful not to be too anti-Autoa because majority of Quebecers right now think the approach has to be a team candidate approach and not a Quebec first approach. In your estimation, given all that you've just laid out, why is the PQ still leading? Well, they're still leading because it is a divided electorate. There are five parties that have a chance of winning seats, and there's not a lot of popularity for any of them. It's largely that

11:24there are groups of Quebecers that are supporting each party, but would not support another party. So the Perticecabitquois is really down to the solid-us-base, and I think that is what is enough to win an election when it's divided like this, but not enough for the PQ to really move ahead. So I think that's why you're still seeing the Perticecabitquois is in a good position. Paul St. Puerre-Plemondon is, you know, he has some charisma. He has some appeal among especially Frank of Phone Quebecers, and there is a lot of discontent with the CQ. So a lot of the anti-CQ vote is happy to go to the PQ. There's a lot of Quebecers who still don't trust the Liberals after the Jean-Sheré years, and they're also seen as a bit of a party that is more Montreal and Anglophone focused. So there's a limit on their growth, and then you have the two other parties Quebec-Sully there, and the conservatives that are kind of seen as too far to either the left or the right for a chunk of those voters. So by the process of elimination, the Perticecabitquois gets the biggest chunk of the vote, but it's not a very big chunk of the vote. Even if they win this election with the current polling that they have, it would be still by the context of past

12:28victories for the PQ, not a very good share of the vote. Not to believe or the point, but all indications are right now then that the electorate is willing to divide the vote in such a way, or to such an extent that the PQ could actually still get elected. Yeah, because there isn't a lot of bend diagrams between all of these other parties, which is also why if it ends up being a minority government in the National Assembly, it's going to be hard for that to last very long. The Perticecabitquois and Quebec-Sully there, which are the two sovereignist parties, they do not get along. The conservatives are seen as a bit too far right for a lot of the more centrist voters. The liberals, as I mentioned, are seen as too much y'all focus for voters in the regions. So it's until we see some big movement, it seems more likely that whoever wins this election would be lucky to get the support of one and three voters. That's very interesting. I was under the impression, I suppose, because maybe the Premier had the income then see that she would be widely considered right now, like the only viable alternative to the PQ banner, but her party is not then best positioned to stop the PQ.

13:33While I think right now in the polls, they have become that party, which is one of the reasons why we've seen some movement towards them. The liberals who have been second in the polls have been dropping back as their voters have been going over the CAQ, especially francophone voters. So I think that if you're a federalist voter in Quebec, or at least a voter who is not interested in independence or sovereignty, the CAQ looks like the best vehicle to block the PQ. And if we see that perception really kind of anchoring itself in the electorate, I think there's a chance for a bit of a bandwagon effect that could help boost the CEQ, but there are still just such a limit. Anglophones in Quebec are not going to support the CAQ based on its French language policies. Conservatives who are very anti-the CEQ government, a France will ago, are probably not going to back this party either. And left wing voters are certainly not going to back the center right CAQ. So it's a very complicated little map and kaleidoscope in Quebec in terms of the politics, which is why it is such a tough election to predict. Do you see Donald Trump remaining the

14:39I suppose the top ballot box issue for the weeks ahead? Unless there's maybe a late September surprise, like how do you see this unfolding? Yeah, the fact that it is a long campaign, it's a 39-day campaign, makes it hard to kind of predict how it's going to unfold. We do know that we're going to have Canada is going to be implementing our retaliatory tariffs soon, and then there might be a round of retaliatory retaliatory tariffs from the United States. So I do think there is the chance that this is a debate that stretches out until the election day. And if that's the case, that's probably going to be good news for Christian Fushette because she is embodying a little bit more that safe haven vote that that CQ is really banking on. And for the Palsy Caby, what the idea of disruption, the idea of a referendum down the line, even if they've promised now to hold it only after Donald Trump's out of the White House, I think does it might spook some voters. So if it does become the issue of the campaign straight through to October 5th, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the reason we see the CQ being reelected. But if it drifts away, then that could be to the benefit of the PQ.

15:44We saw the same kind of thing happen in the last federal election when in the late stages of the campaign, there was less of a focus on Donald Trump. He had been pretty silent when it came to, you know, issues with Canada. And that was when the conservatives started to close the gap in the Liberals. And one of the reasons why the Liberals failed to win a majority last time, even though they have managed to cobble one together since then. I wanted to ask you more broadly about premier Fischatz attempt to put Trump at the center of this race because we just offer instance a liberal sweep in this week's three federal by elections. There are provincial by elections in Ontario on Thursday, as polling shows that premier Doug Ford has gotten this bump from his war of words with Trump. And I just wonder more broadly, are all politicians in Canada right now running against Donald Trump, whether they like it or not? Well, they probably should be. I think that's been the lesson we've seen over the last little while. Doug Ford just last week, there was a new poll that had his approval readings up 12 points and turning around what had been a really

16:44negative cycle of news for him. Mark Carney, as you mentioned, just win the one these big these by-elections, including in Quebec with the huge share of the vote. And I think that Christine Fischatz is hoping she can benefit in the same way. She is still getting better known. She wasn't a well-known cabinet minister when she won the leadership earlier this year. So she still has a lot to prove. Paul St. Pierre Plemondon is running in a second campaign, for example. So there's a bit of an imbalance in terms of the political experience. But for Christine Fischatz, the one thing that can make her party competitive again is if people forget the last eight years, then they think about the next four. And I think that's why she's trying to make this about Donald Trump and not about François Lago, not even about Paul St. Pierre Plemondon because if voters have to choose between Donald Trump and her, they're clearly going to choose her. Eric, really appreciate your analysis today. Thank you for breaking this all down for us. Really appreciate it. All right, thanks for having me. And that was the big story. We'd love to hear your thoughts on this conversation.

17:49Send us an email at helloathobicstoreypodcast.ca. Reach us on Instagram at Frequency Pods or on Blue Sky at the Big Story. If you know someone who might enjoy listening to this episode, be sure to send it to them. You can catch the big story every day on the Seek Wrap or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Karen Seolen. Thanks for listening.