Follow The Money | March 25, 2026 | Hour 2

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1:10Freight rail keeps America moving. Learn more at AAR dot org slash America's engine. Welcome in. We're live in Vegas, circa resort, a casino, Mitch Moss along with Mike, so much Paulies out for the day and follow the money is brought to by Prophet X. Right now you can compete to become the king of March and win free trips up to $10,000. Download the prophet X app and use the code V. Sin M M as I stated first hour of the show my favorite way to bed baseball has turned into the most wins in a given month. That market and it's available typically at three different books as that's all I'm aware of anyway draft King ceasers and circle will put them up. I'll explain more than that coming up here in a minute, but we go out to the progressive guest line now because a guy who is dynamite and breaking this stuff down a guy that I talk to every month before we actually make bets in this market now going back a good couple of years is Chris Bellm sports better who lives in the Midwest and he joins the program now. Chris, thanks for the time today. How are you buddy.

2:22Yeah, doing well, Mitch, appreciate you having me on happy to talk about this. This has been successful over the years, but I want to begin with this like and you tweeted out the numbers as well that you put together I just quote tweeted it as well. You're on X at Bellm Chris BELM Chris, where does your monthly handicap or projections really start with this market Chris. Yeah, so like you mentioned, this is something that's really taken off the last couple years. You know, I've really talked about it, especially last year. It's just a fun fun way to bet baseball futures and you're not tying up your money for a full season necessarily. And it started about a year and a half ago talking with the buddy where we're looking at this market. We wanted to bet this on a regular basis and find a way that we could project the expected win totals for each team each month and try to find value. So we we simplified some things we developed. There was three different criteria. So let's look at every teams expected win percentage. So we use win totals that are for the regular season.

3:34So look at circle. Okay, you you have expected win total for the regular season. You take that win percentage for that team. You plug that in that state of set number one. You basically use those win totals as well for the opponents that they are playing any given month. So you kind of have a blended average for opponents win percentage for the full month for your second data set. And then for the third, it's just total games played that's obviously going to have a factor into how many games you can win in any given month. You take those three together and that's going to generate the total projected wins for for every team that way. And then you can really just start value hunting basically going down the board and seeing who might pop. Now with this first month, we obviously have a little less information than when we get further along into the season. Are you basically coming up with the win percentages based off of the win totals that are set by the books are you coming up using last seasons win percentage a mixture of both your own secret flavor.

4:38How are you getting to these win numbers for each of these teams? Trying to keep it as simple as possible out of the gate, right. There's a lot of unknowns, a lot of variables, especially early on. So just using the books win totals, plugging that in and that's going to kind of apply the formula now. As we get one month under about two, three, four, it's going to change a little bit. We're going to use actual records. And in way out a little bit, even after the first month, I'm still going to use part of the preseason, you know, going into the season projected win totals. But then start weighing in the actual records for when you're using that team itself and the opponents averages. Okay, so this is going to be typically what you're going to see when you put the stuff out, right. The team projected to win the most games will be the Los Angeles Dodgers, probably every single month when you put the numbers together, they're going to be the team at the top. You project them for a little bit more than 20 wins in March and April. However, they are three to one at Bull Draft Kings and Caesars.

5:41Circa is not posted yet. They're going to do that later on. And it's going to be for April only. I would say that if you have blindly bet the Dodgers over the last three years to win this market, you are down probably quite a few units. Would you agree with that? I would agree with that. And it's, it's the baseball version of Scotty Sheffler. I feel like this is, you got to know what you're getting into. Yeah, you're probably feel comfortable with the Dodgers winning most games. But I like to basically get into the double digit odds teams when looking at this market. It's interesting. The volatility in this market is crazy. Last year, there were six months. Obviously that this market was open. Nine different teams, either one at outright or tied. Nine different teams. There were no repeat winners last year. That I thought was, you know, pretty interesting. And I think you and I even joke to the start of last year, like we might need a without Dodgers market for this to even like consider betting this. Because they were going to win 115, 120 games, right? Just did not happen. They did. He did the very first month with the Metz and they did not win another month, the rest of the way.

6:50Now, you mentioned there's this is available limited number of books. So Caesar's draft Kings and circa. And you can mention dead heat a couple times there. What is the rules differences that we see from each of these books? And how does that affect where you want to be able to bet some of these teams? Yeah, super important to know to know the House rules. So circa does have a tiebreaker. It is least losses. So at least games played. If if there is a dead heat or if there is a tie and then run differential. If if that first tie breaker did not settle it. The other books. They do have the dead heat rules. We're just putting that. So if if you have a similar number at circa and draft Kings or Caesars, you just need to understand how many games that teams playing. Would you win the tie breaker? In most cases at circa, then you probably want to bet there. If not, you want to look otherwise. Yeah. So here's the example, right? And you have this in your chart as well. I go down the projected wins. And you have Milwaukee middle of the pack at like 16.11 this year.

7:53But if you like Milwaukee dead, the most wins by the end of April. They only play 30 games, right? A bunch of other teams play 31 or 32. And the Padres also play only 30 games. If you're going to bet either one of those teams and you have access to circa. I think you have to bet about circa because that's again, the tiebreaker is going to come into play and least amount of games played is going to be the edge. So you probably you really want to have more games to win this thing, but not when that's the tie breaker, especially if you like them a lot. 100% in vice versa. You might want to bet at another at a different book. If they have more games play than the other because you're least likely to win that tie breaker at circa potentially. So you just got to know and it's going to be number dependent to the right. So, you know, you might be paying a price to get you know 30 to one compared to 40 to one on a certain team. And you just got to kind of play that out based on the based on the house rules. Now, I am not someone who is like before, sorry. Yeah, go ahead finish your thought.

8:53Yeah, so I like to kind of like I said value hunt once we have all these numbers. It's an original reference point, right? So a lot of times what you have in these these projections is Dodgers always number one and then a huge lump of teams that are all within about one to two wins of each other. Whenever you shop around and look at these, you know, odds for all these books, you might see these teams that are within the same group that are 15 to one, 20 to one and then all of a sudden ones right in the middle at 40 to one. And it's not necessarily an auto bed, but it's something you want to take a closer look at to see, okay. What does our schedule look like? Are there any injuries that I need to be aware of, home away splits, potentially, and just kind of, you know, take a take a deeper dive. That was that was perfect because I was going to ask you about some of the odds splits that we're going to play. I'm not someone who played this much last year and what jumps out to me immediately are looking at the bets and the braves who were currently third and fourth for this specific month.

9:56And you've got them, you know, one book we're looking at five to one on the on the bets. They're 11 to one on draft Kings. If you talk about the braves, they're plus 650 at draft Kings, but 14 to one at Caesars. Is it common to see that big of a gap between books? Is that is that mainly I'm assuming it's because they've taken like that specific book took money on the team. So they adjusted the pricing. But are you do you see that large of gaps even further into the season? They're definitely can be especially the openers. You know, it's it's important to kind of look at that. I feel like by by the time it's this market's closed each month, they're a little closer to each other. But these openers can be can be pretty far off. I will it will make a note though at draft Kings, I believe they posted it for April only. So that could play a role in why these numbers are a little bit different than Caesars where Caesars is offering March plus April. Okay, very good. Chris Balmar guest most wins in a given month beginning again pay attention because March and April can be a little bit dicey with the rules there.

10:57So having said all of that. Who have you landed on so far to actually win this bet? Yeah, so I made a short list because there's there's a lot of teams that that I was really looking at here, but it's the Baltimore Orioles at 40 to one at Caesars. There's still up 35 to one that's moved a little bit, but I like that. A lot of teams that are projected right around their same win total is kind of what I said earlier where you've got 15, 20 to one that are very similar to the Orioles projected win total. I like the top of that lineup quite a bit with the with the addition of Alonzo, the rotation. No ace that really pops out to me necessarily, but I think they've got a good starting five that to give them a chance to win every night. They've got 18 of those 31 games at home, three of those 13 road games are against the white socks. So I kind of take my chances with that with that number on the Orioles.

12:00Yeah, it's interesting to Orioles 16 to one on draft Kings 35 as you mentioned on Caesars. So another pretty big gap there. How many teams do you usually bet a month? Yeah, it's a good question. I try three is the max. I don't even want to get there necessarily, but three would be the max try to try to get try to get one or two usually each month that pop out. Yeah, very good. And then hopefully you're at least alive toward the end of the month and you can you can have some fun with with maybe some catching. Okay, are you going to tweet out your projections at the end of every month? Yeah, that's the plan. Yeah, we'll do this. We'll do this every month throughout the season for sure as long as you get your bets in first. Then you can tweet about make sure you follow Chris on X. He's at Belm Chris BELM Chris. That was awesome, man. Thanks so much for the time today. Thanks a lot. He joined us on the progressive guest line might palm next. He loves Betty Major League Baseball. We'll get to tonight's live lifter and his future bets for the 2026 season coming up next.

13:07Hey, let me get your attention real quick podcast listeners. It's March, which means the madness is officially upon us and the folks at Vison have gone crazy with this one. For $29.99 you get unlimited access to Vison Pro through May 1st. I'm talking picks throughout the tournament public betting data for every single game sharp tools, projections, articles and more, which means every day you wait is an opportunity missed. Just click the link in the description to get started. It's March, baby. Now back to the show. Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability. We're going into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I force max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving.

14:09Tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit Toyota dot com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. Few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports and nothing brings us together quite like team USA at the Olympic winter games from NBC Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across community and peacock. Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America, sharing every moment with millions when team USA steps onto the world stage. We're not just watching. We're cheering together this winter. We're all on the same team. Comcast proud partner of team USA. This is follow the money on visa. I fun spot there with Chris Bell, talking about the most wins major league baseball in a given month, Mitch Moss along with Mike Sommatch in for Pauli Howard today.

15:10This is follow the money on visa and these sports betting network. It is Wednesdays with the Maestro as Mike Palm, the VP of this great property joined us now in studio. How are you, pal? Oh, Mitch, hello, Mike. How are you guys doing? Doing well, doing well. You guys have not posted the most wins yet. I talked to Chris Bennett last night slash today. And he is going to post. I think later on this week, at least for April. He told me that he's going to have the most wins for April available. Yeah, he'll have it available. I think you'll have it available by the weekend. It's been a growing market as you will know you love the dabble in it. Do you? I'm not that smart. I don't have the kind of time on my hands that you folks do that can really analyze everybody schedules and spin rates and the launch angles and the X-Fib and the bad bit and all this nonsense. If I had more time, maybe I could. I'm behind on my baseball research too. I don't know. I mean, I should have been ahead of it means it's probably going to be the last season for a while, but I'm going to have to learn as we go here.

16:13Okay, so we get going tonight, Mike. We've got baseball officially first pitch tonight. Would San Francisco and the New York Yankees here? Do you have anything in this game? Are you just going to enjoy it and watch this one? I'm going to I will enjoy watching this one in and out between some hockey action tonight. Oh, between the two games that are on the schedule. Yeah, they did a great job. They did a great job stepping aside for a step. There was a good night last night. I have to tell you it was an entertaining night of hockey. That Ben Cooper Anaheim game was a terrific wild open game if you enjoy offensive hockey, but yes, we're coming down to the last 10, 12 games in the NHL match. So there's a lot to be decided here. And I know a couple teams that needed wins last night in the East didn't get them. But for the most part, when you talk about playing, the tanking theory in the NBA, it's pretty much held through the season in the NHL. So just look out for the teams that need to win versus the teams who need to get draft position. Can I get you to dive into some prop markets this year? For example, like tonight, would you look at Logan Webb with a strikeout? You look at him with the outs prop tonight, Mike.

17:18How about total pitches? Do they offer that? Is that it? Is that it? Can you get that? I would love I would go for outs for Logan Webb. I have to tell you, I will bring this up at some later time, Mitch, when we can delve into this, but the top scouts and one top scout and executive from each major league team was asked to rate. It's a compilation poll of who are the aces in major league baseball. And so my friend challenged me how many guesses would it take for me to get the top 10 aces? And I said, I can do it in under 14 and a half guesses was my, my bet like bit of note on name that tune. I didn't make it. It took me 16 guesses 16 guesses. Logan Webb was solidly, I believe number seven on this list. When you think about an ace, right? You think about a guy that's going to eat up a bunch of innings for your team too and go out there and go up against the number one starter for the most. And I think Logan Webb does define that now my friend Amal Shaw, who I co hosted a show with on this network for 19 months, used to call Logan Webb a nine high flush. It's a very good hand, but it gets beat by better.

18:24So, but he does fit the definition. I said, I needed one clue on this list. I said, how many Dodgers are there two or three? And the answer was two. And so I guessed Yamamoto and snout. No, no, did not make the top 10. Yamamoto was fourth and Otani was nine, Otani made it is one of the time he would make it because of because of the, you know, is he going to pitch isn't he and how many starts and innings is he going to throw. He made it is number nine. That surprise you might get that that shocking to me. Yep. I'm surprised that Otani showed up on that list. Was there anyone else that surprised you when you were going through these guesses that was on the top 10. No, Zach Wheeler was a surprise for me. He wasn't in the top 10. And I am not, you know, it's go schoolable schemes right off the bat. Right. So I agree with that. I would have had Christopher Sanchez was fifth. There wasn't, there wasn't any really surprises. So for me, I'm not a max freed guy. I would not put max freed in my top 10. I think max freed came in sixth. So he, to me, freed is overrated. But it's an interesting list of what scouts thing. And the ground was still in the top 10 at number 10. It took me a while to get there as well.

19:37Crochet number three. Crochet ended up third. I would go Yamamoto three. Okay. Sanchez for crochet five. If if I was doing that list. That's the only thing I quibble with the top five. I reverse the order a little bit. All right. Well, you have a great saying on this network. You like to see cases. Would you qualify Otani as a fake case? I think Otani's I don't know what we've seen yet of Otani. I don't know that we have a big enough body of I want to see Otani pitch more. To be honest with you, for what I want to see out of the Dodgers, it's Otani pitch more. Now I was one of the critics and people called me an Otani denier when I said Salvi Perez should have won the MVP in the American what year was that of 24 20, whatever. Because I said every start they put Otani up on a Tuesday night against the Omaha storm chasers. It seemed like he was pitching against the Royals triple A team every night, right? And we've seen and starts he had when he was with the angels and Yankee Stadium. He was awful under the spotlight and a big city in that. I think his stuff is outstanding. Obviously was great in the World Baseball Classic last time out when he struck out trout and I would like to see Otani pitch more.

20:41And he may very well be a top 10 pitcher. Do you think will actually see him pitch more though? I mean, this is a Dodgers team that that doesn't necessarily need to go with a five in rotation doesn't necessarily need to to run him out there consistently. Either win total was a highest 104 earlier during the off seasons 102 and a half right now. There's no one in this division that can really threaten them over 162 game sample size. What's the actual pressure on this Dodgers organization to have them on the mount? No, they just want to get to October. That's all they want to do, right? And if I were them, I'd pitch Yamamoto the least amount I could all year after you used, you used him up. As a Japanese pitcher used to be in a six man rotation. You used him up very hard in October last year. I would just have tried to have Yamamoto for I want all these guys healthy, right? These teams get disinterested too as you see along the way. Look at the Colorado avalanche Mike in a sport we love and hockey. These teams get out to such big leads and they're so good they get disinterested and they're just waiting for the playoffs to get here. Oh, Tony, by the way, in a spring training start 11Ks and 4 plus innings. That's one one good looking example for him anyway, but can he do that? And are they going to put him out there six innings?

21:47Like what's the longest that he's going to last in a game this year? It depends on maybe if he has a no hitter going or something like that, although that doesn't really seem to matter for Davey Roberts. We've seen him. We've seen him pull people with no headers going. I mean, they're the combined no header kings, but we'll see. I mean, he's still he still wants to stress what he can do as an athlete too. Obviously, and that's what makes him this unicorn is the fact that he can do both at such a high level. Yeah, he's mentioned that the most important award for him is a say young that he wants a say young it's going to be tough to win one in the NL with schemes at all who are all inside that that conference there. I do want to bring it back to hockey real quick here, Mike, because I know you're just bursting at the seams to talk about it. And I have been loading up on a specific Eastern conference team. So I want to get your take on this year. I started playing Ottawa at plus 150 to make the playoffs, play them at plus 130 plus 110, play them at 25 to 1, 22 to 1, and just rebound them at 17 to 1 to win the Eastern conference.

22:48Any like they're one of the top teams from a coursey perspective, one of the top teams from a Fenwick perspective. If you go and you look at their struggles this season, it's been when they're they're starting goalie, old mark has been out. Do you have the same love for Ottawa that I kind of developed over this last month and a half or so. So I've had that love for two years, Mike. I've been on this team for two years that this was, you know, this was going to end. This was it's just the way I am on Anaheim. I thought this was the start of their arc this year, and I bet the ducks at three to one to make the playoffs and a hundred to one to win the cup. I never thought coach Q would have them on top of the Pacific this late in the year. I've been on this Ottawa team, Ottawa team, Ottawa team, and we saw them get to the playoffs and and give Toronto a hard time in the first round. I love this Ottawa team and this East. It's wide open, right? It's it's a wide open East. Everybody's bunched up. They're probably going to set the record for the team with the highest point total to not make the playoffs in the history of the NHL. There's probably going to be a team that 98 would set the record. They're it's pacing for 99 doesn't make the playoffs this year. So they got to get in. They've been impressive in these big games against Detroit when they're in head to head competitions with these teams that they're chasing.

23:54And they brought all Mark over to be the number one guy, right? I mean, this was what he was going to be. He was the number one guy was swimming on that record setting team with with Boston when when he when he got injured. All Mark and and didn't know and Montgomery didn't know and they got upset by the Panthers in the first round. This is why you brought him over. He got through all whatever the mental slash and fidelity issues were and moved on here. I think this is a very, very dangerous team. I actually think that Ottawa Columbus and Buffalo are the most dangerous teams to come out of the East. I just don't like the prices. I Caroline is never built to win in the playoffs and I think Tampa Bay might be up against it this year. But for price shots, those are the three teams I like in the East. Very good. Followed the money brought you by Profit X. If you're not on Profit X yet, now is the time. Sign up April 6th. Purchase at least $25 and get a free $25 as well. Then jump into their King of March contest. You could win free trips. Worth up to $5,000 or even $10,000. Just use the code visa and M. Make your first purchase then learn about the contest on their home page and start playing.

24:54No entry fee required hit $1,000 in volume. You're entered them win the $5,000 trip. Hit $10,000 in volume and you're entered for the $10,000 trip. When 10 picks hit the volume and every additional 10 wins get you another entry. Download the Profit X, use the code visa and M. Make your first purchase and take your shot at becoming the King of March. More with the Maestro Mike Palm VP of Circle Las Vegas coming up on follow the money. It's decent. These sports betting network. He'll explain why it helps when announcers know the score and you cannot be serious. Next. This is follow the money on visa. Welcome back. Mitch Moss along with Mike Sommage as we continue here Wednesdays with the Maestro Mike Palm VP of Circle Las Vegas time now for you cannot be serious.

26:03You can't be serious man. You cannot be serious. You know Mitch and Mike a friend asked me a very pertinent question as we were watching the women's tournament this weekend. He said what is harder to stomach in the women's college day? Is it the officiating or the announcing and I told him I really wouldn't want to live on the difference but I think I've concluded that it's the announcing and that's a stretch because have you noticed the amount of replays in these women's games in the Iowa game on Monday. In the Iowa game on Monday against Virginia in the last two minutes of that game and double over through double overtime. They had four reviews of seven minutes or more and three times called flagrant files were not even a fall had been called on the court. I just love the announcement when they lady gets on the microphone and says upgrading from unobserved to flagrant one. It's not as bad as the announcing how about the in that let's go to let's go to the second round game Ole Miss in Minnesota a five four game in Minnesota.

27:06The game is tied at 63 Ole Miss scores the two pointer tied the game at 63 Minnesota calls time out with 3.5 seconds left. Who's doing the game for ESPN. Chris the Blunk is the play by play announcer and Andrea Lloyd is doing caught now Andrea Lloyd is not a young woman she graduated from Texas in 87. She won a national championship under Jody Conrad there I think she played six or seven years professionally and in the WNBA and she was inducted into Hall of Fame. Andrea Lloyd thought that Minnesota was still ahead in this game and Blunk did nothing to dissuade her of that fact if you go on Twitter you can find this whole clip of them talking about how Ole Miss must play the greatest defense of their life. To steal this pass under under in the under by in bounce and then what the free pro percentage was of each Minnesota player on the court because they must immediately foul the game was tied and they went on the whole commercial break thinking that that Minnesota was still ahead me while Minnesota inbounded the ball and scored to win 65 63 and move on.

28:06And now they draw UCLA I think that lines 28 and a half or 29 but this is the problem when you spread out and you have games at so many so many different sites you have to go. Blunk has done games for ESPN and and Westwood won for years but was a pack 12 announcer Andrea Lloyd is it Mount West enough but you don't need to find all these announcers to all these different tournament games and boys this stuff watered down ESPN you cannot be serious. I have to move to the men briefly here. I'm still shocked that I would knock off Florida Mitch I have to watch the game again to really believe what happened here but let's focus on our buddy Creepy Peepy Tom Todd Golden. How about this spring he is he thinks he's the biggest bully on the block he wants to fight coach Cal he's got his starters Mitch his starters were in up 48 against Pravew A&M I'm aware. I'm going to try to fight big McCollum in the first half of that game. Let me tell you some McCollum would kick his backside if that fight ever took place.

29:07Well let's pass forward to the final nine seconds of the game. Florida's up to Iowa inbounding under their own basket 72 70. What is Golden do he goes into a full court press. Iowa breaks it with a pass that Bennett starts their best player breaking towards mid court. He has two options to pass for a lab or a three they hit the three in the corner with four seconds let him Florida takes the time out doesn't even get a shot off and you're defending national champ. And I know both of our future tickets on Florida suddenly up and smoke but wait as Vanessa Williams says let's save the best for last. How about the post game presser let's listen to Todd Golden. We had the two point lead late we wanted to foul him you know forcing to make a couple free throws and then have a chance to have the ball. With a chance to win the game regulation and then if we didn't go to overtime we had a good good feeling that they were going to try to end it and try to walk us off and we just did not execute on the last play.

30:09He wanted to foul up to so that Iowa could make two free throws and then they would have a shot to have the last shot before sending the game to overtime. You won the national title last year you're one of the elite representing defenses in the entire game of comments basketball and against this lonely Iowa team who's played terribly the last two months of the year and just happened to get a clips in team who couldn't hit the broadside of a barn in the first round. You were so scared they were going to walk you off of the three why not just sit back and play half court defense. Why would you want to press you're telling me we're going to press the foul. I don't believe he's that dumb bitch I believe he's lying. I believe Todd Golden is lying to cover up the fact that he made a mistake in pressing Iowa. Todd Golden you cannot be serious and finally by Felicia. Did you listen to the serious cues coach I get it now they were down a hundred and a half I get that. I see fun had doubled up more than double them up at half. They get beat by 40 some points. This is the Syracuse coach Felicia Lajet Jack.

31:12Let's listen to her post game after getting eliminated by Yukon. For us to be what we've done and our body of work to have to come and play the best team in the country. I mean Gina has this thing going and he is I love what he's done. But we I thought deserved a little more respect after being in his business for 37 years and to have to come and be in this particular bracket every freaking year is unacceptable. She's been a college head coach since 2002. I had to go back and do the research because she has to play Yukon every year. She's been a college head coach since 2002 so that's 26 so 25 years. Now they cancel one of the covid so she's had 24 opportunities to play in the NCAA tournament. She coached at Hofstra, Indiana, Buffalo and Syracuse. How many times in those 24 years I'll just let both of you can hazard this guess.

32:16Do you think Yukon and Geno Arena has eliminated Felicia Lajet Jack from the NCAA tournament? I'd say two or three times tops. I'm going to go with one this year. Exactly twice in 24 years. To 2024 she was a six seed. They won their first game and then they met Yukon who was a three and Yukon beat him in the second round. And then this year she was a nine and beat Iowa State and beat Yukon. In 2010, I'm sorry, in 2016 when she was at Buffalo, they got sent to play that she was a 13 and she got sent to Columbus and they got beat by Ohio State. In 2018 she got sent to Tallahassee. They won two games and they got knocked off in the sweet 16 against South Carolina. And then she got sent to Tennessee and got knocked out in 2022. They played them twice in 24 years. She said every year we have to come to Yukon every single year.

33:17Well, if you don't want to play Yukon in the first few rounds, go coach in the big sky. Go coach out. Don't they get it? They only have two regional sites because they can't draw anybody. They play all these first round games on the top four seeds home. They can't draw anybody. They cannot draw anybody. So go play somewhere in the Midwest or out west you won't have to play Yukon until you get to a regional. Felicia legit jack. You cannot be serious. Twice. The way you sent it up, I knew it was not going to be. It wasn't going to be like eight or ten times. There's really two good honorable mentions this week, Mitch. And Carver Hawker and not having air condition. I guess nobody knew about this until there was a heat wave in Iowa and the building was 92 degrees. Well, did you know about it? Of course, they never put it in. They used the building from late October until early March. It's not warm enough in Iowa to have anything. But it was 88 degrees in a record heat wave. And then two days later, when they played the games, it was 40 degrees. And then the other story, I just, I know it was too sensitive to do. But how about the quadruple amputee? Yes.

34:17Cornhole star who commits cold blood and murder. And then he's mad that the two guys in the back seat won't help roll the body out of the car. Because that was the tougher thing to do. That's straight out of a Colombo. That would have been a Colombo at some point. Good list this week. Are you tired of Camper's line about their record? Their juice reel dropped an update that makes that impossible. Connect your sports books directly into juice reel and instantly get in depth and analytics on your own betting plus access to what the very best bettors in the platform have their money on if you're the sharp better. And others follow your bets. You'll get paid for helping the community win. The days of Camper's faking their profits are over, tailed proven winners on juice reel, download it now that's juice like orange juice reel our. on the show that handle was down. for the first one, days of the madness. Horrible. Not in other states and the outposts, as I call, it was okay. But here in Nevada, it was down and a combination, I think, of our bigger players not being here. Even the food and beverage

35:17revenue in stadium swim was up, but the book and then the ballroom here. Galaxy in my ballroom, food and beverage revenue was down year-over, year-round who was down year over year as well. Now, is that a prediction markets influence? Is that the price of oil? I mean, it's $9 for a gallon of gas in some places in California, and flight tickets are ridiculous. I'm not sure what all of it was. I mean, a hotel rate here on Friday night was $7.99. So that also freezes out some of the mid-tier gamblers when the price is that high as well. But it was down, and this is the only state it was down in though. This was the only state it was down in. Let me tell you a little bit about our liabilities in case you were wondering. Did Derek Stevens cover these yesterday? Briefly, none of the big boys, right? You account for Arkansas being our biggest liability, I think. Next after that is Michigan State, second, Purdue, third, St. John's, fourth, and then Yukon, fifth, but quite a bit off. All the other ones are all quarter million or up the first floor. How is it feel to have the Twitter account back?

36:20That's nice. It's nice. We can retweet stuff. People tweeting in about Palm Saturdays on the weekends. At Circa, Maestro? Circa Maestro? Who came up with that? More draft, thanks Mike. More draft props are available for next month's event in the NFL. Mike loves betting the NFL draft. As do I, we'll talk about it coming up. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going, blending rugged muscle with precision engineering, all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I Force Max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power, torque, and towing performance, and the roomy high-tech cabin keeps you connected on the go. Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path. Agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast, and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile.

37:22So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. Here's a shift worth noting. Better health care is care that meets patients where they are. United Health Group is bringing it directly to living rooms. This is a win for patients managing chronic conditions. And here's the interesting thing. By closing those care gaps, administering in-home exams and identifying risks earlier, more diseases can be prevented, and patient outcomes can improve. In 2025 alone, United Health Group Patients received over 19 million home visits. Learn more at unitedhealthgroup.com slash commitment. This is follow the money on V-San. Good day, I'm bored. Here on a Wednesday, Mitch Moss along with Mike Sommich in for Polly Howard today. Polly is out. He is at a pizza expo here in town, which honestly, it has to be worth taking a day off from doing the show, even though it's sweet 16 honestly.

38:24They have some of the best pizza in the entire country there, some of the best pizza makers. You live in Santa Barbara, Mike. How is the pizza in that area? Terrible. It's not great. There's one pizza place that I really like here. There's no really good New York style pizza, which is my favorite kind. And like even if you want to lean to like the Chicago deep dish or the Detroit style pizza, not really anything. So it's just kind of met normal pizza. We need a couple really good pizza restaurants up here. I will give a shout out to one place in Southern California here because when I first moved out here, I didn't think the pizza in Las Vegas was very good either. But in the 25 years I've been here, a lot of pizza makers have come out here because they realize like, hey, it's a booming place. I want to be there. Let's improve the pizza game. So now we have pretty good pizza cross the board here in Las Vegas. And there's a spot multiple locations. It has, it's called Metro Pizza. Well, the guy who is in charge of Metro Pizza is named as John Arena. And then he took somebody under his wing named Chris Decker. Chris Decker was speaking at the Expo again yesterday. He does it every single year. They have since moved into Southern California

39:25and just an unsolicited shout out here. Their place is called Truly Pizza. Truly in Dana Point, California. I'll put it up against almost any place I've been in the entire country. It's that good. They think of everything. You have the Mitch Moss stamp of approval on this. And tell him, I said, hello, by the way, if you go there, you will not be disappointed if you go to Truly Pizza in Dana Point, California. The guy is a genius. And I think he finished top 50 at the international pizza maker convention like in Italy last year. He's that good. So I just, I happen to know the guy he was in Las Vegas for a long time and now he's expanded to Southern California. But you shut out for those of you in that region of the country. I know that we have a lot of pizza snobs in the audience and they can only have, you know, East Coast pizza. I'm telling you, that's a mistake because good pizza exists in a lot of spots across the country. So there's a quick pizza rant, I guess, Mike. I will have to check that out. We're doing a road trip. The wife and I are up the California coast. So I have to see if we're hitting up Dana Point or not and check out Truly.

40:26I love a place called Joe's, which is in Santa Monica, also unsolicited plug. I miss, I used to live like a half block from there. You could get the big New York style pie. It was phenomenal. I want a place like that somewhere up here in Santa Barbara. So if you're looking for a spot to open up a pizza joint and you can make good East Coast pizza, come to Santa Barbara. You got at least one customer. Yeah, and you're going to be a repeat customer for sure. There's nothing more disappointed when you get excited for having a pizza. And either you get it delivered or you go there for a night and you take one bite, you're like, oh my God, it's not good. Are you serious? Okay. All right. You love betting the NFL draft. I love it as well. I think most people kind of do. So now draft kings, they posted more and more props. And one of them is the total number of quarterbacks selected in the first round, which has now moved with the juice. But I think there's a reason why. Now this is getting some steam. Dan Orlowski said this now multiple times on ESPN, including I think it was again, either yesterday or today on get up. And that is now, oh boy, people are hot and heavy

41:28on Bama quarterback, Ty Simpson. I think Ty Simpson is QB1. I think Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in this class. I think when you look at the body of work and what was asked of these two quarterbacks, you have to start with the question, who needed to do more to carry their football team to play well? Ty Simpson, and it's not close between those two quarterbacks. Who took more games over throughout the course of the season? Ty Simpson, it's not even close. And if we're asking like, okay, we're trying to see what you are as a player in college and what you're gonna be asked to do in the NFL and what translates. I start with, what do you do in moments of panic with the football? Because that's really what separates good degree. I would tell you that Ty Simpson is more consistent in that regard. There's not a ton of moments of panic out of Fernando Mendoza and then there's moments when he immediately drops his eyes and becomes a runner. Ty Simpson, more consistent in that. What guy was asked to do more NFL throws? When I say NFL throws, I'm talking 15, 20, 25 yard in routes,

42:30crossing routes, deep corner or sail routes. Ty Simpson, and it's not even close to that regard. All right, so he's by far the best quarterback in the draft, I guess, huh? Yeah, I guess so. I mean, do you see him on McAfee? Cause he didn't, he had a little pushback on that McAfee. We'll just leave it at that. You can find that clip out there on X Forever where you ever want to get it. Look, I disagree with him. I don't, I'm not Ty on Ty Simpson here, but I'm also not a scout. I'm not an evaluator. So I guess you have to decide whether or not you take what he is saying with a grain of salt and if there's a bunch of GMs out there they're starting to buy into the idea that Ty Simpson is a high draft pick, but when we're looking at this from a specific betting market, it's will he go in the first round? Cause we know him and those is going one. And this number is set at one and a half. So the question is, will any other quarterback be drafted somewhere in the first round? Yes, Ty Simpson, the most likely to be the second quarterback, but you do have other quarterbacks that possibly someone could fall in love with during this process.

43:31I think it's going to be close. I mean, I think that the fact that the Rams traded away, they're pick late in the first round is not a great thing for Ty Simpson, not a great thing for taking the over one and a half here because that was a team late in the first round that it would have made a ton of sense. You would kind of need someone to trade up in my mind up into the first round to go ahead and take him cause I don't think he's going top 20 in this draft, which means that you've has to be someone in that 21 to 32 ranges. There's just not a lot of quarterback needy teams that are drafting inside that range. I would lean toward he ends up in the first round, but I don't have a big time conviction and the price on the nose is significantly higher than the price on the yes currently. You're looking at, you're looking at minus 220 for yes. You're looking at minus or plus 170 for no. I'd rather bet the plus 170 than the minus 220 right now. Yeah. What about the jets? Not at number two overall, but they have another pick in the first round. And I mean, my god, they're going to bring Geno Smith back. Now, maybe you just go through one more year of being a complete train wreck and you say, sorry, season ticket holders, but next year's draft is so much better

44:32and we just can't take a guy in the middle of the first round because we don't know about it. We have no idea he's going to be good or not. Yeah, I think the jets would be one of those teams that like, hey, we've got enough draft capital we could take him. My issue here, like, I guess you have to trust or the jets going to do the smart thing. The smart thing is to wait for it for next year to build up around him to finish off that offensive line to add pieces on the offense and be ready to have your quarterback come in and not ruin them. Like the jets have ruined quarterbacks time after time after time when they draft him because they'd have nothing from a just structural standpoint. I also don't really want to go out and get a rookie quarterback when I have Aaron Glenn as my head coach, like, let's see if he can fix the defense this year and he deserves the opportunity to have a rookie quarterback that has upside before we go out and we spend a first round draft pick on him because you got to think, hey, we've got draft picks that we got because we moved on from sauce gardener last year. I don't want to waste those on a quarterback if the team isn't ready around him and I just don't think this team is ready this year. So I could see the argument as to why the jets

45:32make sense as a landing spot. I think it would be a mistake from a franchise building perspective. Right. I will point out. So, yeah, that juice on the over one and a half quarterbacks did move like 40 cents and I think it was probably because of what McAfee, not McAfee or Lapsky was saying, went from 220 to minus 260 in the first round. Now, when you're betting a draft market, right? Like that, there's no difference between minus 220 and minus 260 if you know the information. Like if you found out that, like let's say you knew somebody inside the jets organization and they said, absolutely, we love the guy, we're taking him 16th here. I'm a man in my word, we're taking him. Well, that, I mean, minus 260 might as well be plus, might as well be 15 to one because if you have the information, lay whatever number that is, it doesn't matter. This is not an event. This is not a basketball game being played tonight on the court where you have your opinion on the game. It's, I have the information, I'm gonna run with it. I'm gonna make that bet. So that's one of the biggest differences between betting an event like the draft and betting like basically any other sporting event, Mike.

46:34Oh, yeah, that's the beauty of this market. It is an information market. Like there is credible information that you can act on and it's irrelevant what the price is. If you are 100% certain, that information's correct. I remember when Jacksonville had the number one overall pick, it was leaked before, who they were going to take. San Francisco with three, that leaked out about an hour before that draft when they took the quarterback from North Dakota, Tray Lance. That was like, it didn't matter what price you got. You knew what was happening and that's one of the reasons that I do like, there's one of the couple reasons I really like the draft markets. First off, if you have someone you trust, if you have good information, you can profits rate off that. Secondly, these numbers bounce a lot. You get plus 170 right now on the know. You might get plus money on the yes one and a half quarterbacks by the time you get to the draft. And all of a sudden, you got plus money on both sides. And it doesn't take a lot of money to move these markets because the limits aren't as high and because they know it's an information market. If you get a big bet, that's gonna scare the books. Yep, you're spot on. Follow the money is brought to you by Profit X. If you're not on Profit X yet, now is the time sign up.

47:35By April 6th, purchase at least $25 and get a free $25 as well then jump into their King of March contest. You could win free trips, worth up to $5,000 or even $10,000. By using the code, Visa and MM make your first purchase. Then learn about the contest on their homepage and start playing. No entry free fee is required. Hit $1,000 in volume. You're entered for the $5,000 trip. Hit $10,000 in volume. And you're in for the $10,000 trip. Win 10 picks, hit the volume. And every additional 10 wins get you another entry. Download Profit X, use the code Visa and MM. Make your first purchase and take your shot at becoming the King of March. Well, to your point, I think of the jets don't take them like at 16 and they don't have to take them. I like your angle. There's no read. Where's he gonna go? Like what's that landing spot? Someone's gotta trade up for him. It was the Rams. The Rams made so much sense with that second pick. Now they don't have? Yep. MLB starts tonight. We'll kick around that game. And some season long vets that we made here as well

48:35and follow the money in its visa. These sports betting network. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going. Blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available iForce Max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power, torque and towing performance and the roomy high-tech cabin keeps you connected on the go. Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path. Agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. Few things are as uplifting as the greatest moments in sports

49:35and nothing brings us together quite like Team USA at the Olympic Winter Games. From NBC Universal's iconic storytelling to the innovative technology across Xfinity and Peacock, Comcast brings the Olympic Games home to America sharing every moment with millions. When Team USA steps onto the world stage, we're not just watching, we're cheering together. This winter, we're all on the same team. Comcast, proud partner of Team USA.