Every 0.2 Bitcoin Retires You 3 Years Faster

0:00This episode is brought to you by Subaru. You know that place your mind always wanders to? The lake, the mountains, the homes of the people you love most. The completely redesigned 2026 Subaru Outback is built to help you get there. With legendary capability, standard symmetrical all-wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru Outback. Love never looked so good. Visit Subaru.com slash outback to learn more. Here's your report! Thanks Jane. I wish I could hire someone just like you. Try LinkedIn Hiring Pro. It's more than a job board. It's like the recruiter you always wished you had. Hiring Pro uses real-time insights to match your role to LinkedIn's unique network of professionals and delivers a short list of best-fit candidates. You'll spend less time sorting applicants and more time talking to the right people. Let's do it. You're a replaceable Jane, but another you would be great. Hire right the first time. Post your job for free on LinkedIn today at LinkedIn.com slash quality. You can see now instead of needing one Bitcoin, you don't need point eight Bitcoin to have the same conditions.

1:02Similarly, instead of having a withdrawal of 100,000, we draw 124,500. The opportunity here is now we're considering retirement two years later, 2037. Now we're at escape philosophy. Now our stack will exceed our income from 2038 onwards. You can retire on one Bitcoin by 2037. Potentially, depending on your individual situation, even earlier than that, we're showing specific calculations where you can put in your own inputs on how and when to retire from how many Bitcoin. And we're showing in a specific example how 0.2 Bitcoin gives you a free year earlier retirement. So collecting as many Bitcoin as possible actually saves you a lot of time that you don't have to work and can spend more time with your family, with your friends or on your favorite project. They're maybe just like starting up a company. This is this Bitcoin escape velocity that we want to reach.

2:03But we also talking about the Bitcoin bull run, why it's very, very likely that it already started and that the bottom this year was already in. So this is a deep dive with John. I love this conversation with him. Last coin standing. Enjoy. And so yeah, this is this is one of the about the four years so interactive tools that I have called waiter deploy now. And obviously like the name sounds that the ideas, hey, is now a good time to to get into Bitcoin is now a good time to convert via the Bitcoin. And you can see at the top there's there's a slider and it automatically goes to exactly where we are today. And what I mean where we are, I mean, where we are on the power law. So power laws one of the which is really the most interesting way to describe and Bitcoin's growth over time and it's trend over time. And so this is its current position in the power law and we're below trend right now. We're about 0.52 below below trend.

3:05And that's where we are today. And you can see lower the results right now suggest that actually from a historical point standpoint, only looking at historical data. Only 9% of the time, whether have been a benefit from waiting 9% of the time, would you have ended up with more Bitcoin. And what I suggest you to do right now is that top slider there where it says today, if you just start moving it slightly. Either way, just keep moving and you can see that the blue dots on the screen that that whole line rises up in each of those blue dots represents another time in Bitcoin's history where we were at the that same level. And that same position versus the trend. And you can see that as we go higher, like as you move it up the trend, say where we were a couple years ago or so. Then you start to see that actually now there is sort of more of a statistical chance of the benefit from waiting to deploy versus deploying straight away, which makes sense. Obviously, because we're higher in the trend.

4:09There's less chance of an increased spike higher. There's more chance of a spike lower. And keep in mind, this is based purely on historical data. So the good thing about this is that nothing here is a speculation really. It's just a position in time historically. It's a description of the of the past purely. There's absolutely no forecasting of the future prediction of the future. But you can see that it is kind of compelling or at least it gives you a point of view. Historically, the other thing you might consider is that well, even if this is a pure historical relationship, then you might say, well, maybe now is different. Maybe the future is different from the past. So that that's another way that there's no guarantee that this would be into that past results or an indication of future results. But you can see from the result there just the final point that that 9% it's a pretty low number. So the general recommendation, I wouldn't say recommendation, but the general guidance that this tool would suggest is like, now is a good time to deploy versus waiting for a lower entry.

5:16Yeah, and I think this is the general notion. I also support a lot because a lot of people that say like, oh, like we have room to go down, but you never know. Like what if what if a big announcement comes like next week where like a big company like Apple or Facebook or so says, hey, we looked at that Bitcoin thing and we actually like it and we'll transform like $10 billion into Bitcoin and we put it on the balance sheet. I don't think they're hit cake and like ever absolutely and certainly and with that in mind, like the worst outcome is to be sitting on the sidelines and end up with no Bitcoin at price starts. To keep skyrocketing higher. So I think in many of these tools, which useful is to have a Bitcoin position, have a basic Bitcoin position and consider these for a smaller part of one's portfolio. And I think it's a good maybe a good real fun. Do you do that like if it goes really high, let's say I'll bring it back up. I think it's just to actually makes it super simple. So be easy to see if we had like a high where we're what like $211 probably here at the 60K range is historically obviously it made sense.

6:37If you now look back to sell some and like then average back in along the line, is that something that you consider of like if we get really overheated and makes sense that to trim some of the top was it still too dangerous to potentially move out on Bitcoin. Yeah, it's a very good question. I think there's maybe two parts to the answer there. The first part is that everybody's situation is different just as an example like some of us maybe may not have a house yet and that's one of our goals for the future for the next 10 years or so. It's an interesting way to think about it is that when we do get to those spikes where we're in the upper part of the channel, we're at two X or three X the trend. Then arguably that's a good time to take some off the table and to follow through and some of those life goals. At least that's the way I would look at it. It's not necessarily to take money off the table to buy a Ferrari or whatever, but to sort of follow through in some of those life goals.

7:41That's one way to think of it. One other way to think of it is that you can make the argument that at some point in the future, Bitcoin may break this power law trend and it could break to the downside or it could break to the upside potentially. It's worth exploring both of those options and it's quite possible. I think it's far more likely at some point in the future it will break to the upside and we'll get more of an S curve relationship. I don't think that's happening right now. I don't think it's happening in the next three or four years, but I think we could start to see that possibility increasing say within 10 years. It would actually break to the upside. Yeah, it's the upside breaking would be really interesting, but you also made something on the power law itself. I've covered the power like quite some time already in the podcast, but I think it's such an important thing to understand.

8:41It gives you a lot of confidence and like a lot of data on like what the Bitcoin price actually is doing. Yes, so we're on the Bitcoin and the power law page right now and if you go a little bit lower, well, they sort of headline here as you can see if you're looking at the page is the idea that based on everything we've seen of Bitcoin's price history over time, it follows a predictable pattern where the price of Bitcoin doubles approximately every 13% of its age. So this is not an exponential like when we think about stock stocks or equities in that use you think of even the term compound annual growth rate, it's an actual yearly thing like hey, the S&P 500 has has a company growth rate of say 12% or whatever it is. But in Bitcoin, that's not the case than the power law, it's not the case. We've we have a doubling that increases in timeline, it takes more time to double as the years go by and if you go a little bit lower.

9:53In the page, you'll see there that Bitcoin is 6443 days old and all of the data here is updated live daily. And you can see that the current doubling takes approximately 822 days now, what's a very important point here is that I'm not talking about the price doubling if you look at the price right now of say $79,000. I'm not suggesting that in 822 days, it will be precisely twice higher than that. In fact, it's the the overall trend line will be will be twice higher than that in that number of days. And the constant here is you can see it's 12.76% is the is how much time of Bitcoin's history it takes to double. And there's a there's a nice visual here representing the the power law trend over time and you can see there's there's there's a lower bound floor to that, which is approximately 0.4x the overall trend line. There's that sort of medium trend line, which is the important one. And then there's a higher a higher bound of approximately 3x and you can see in in the early parts of Bitcoin's history Bitcoin was so volatile that it it broke through that upper bounds several times.

11:04And I think you probably had one or two people on your show recognizing that Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing over time and I would certainly agree with that. And which is arguably a good thing. And but it's still it's still volatile. So that's just a little bit of a visual of what the the power law looks like we're certainly in the lower part of the trend now and it's it's natural. Some people think like oh, is the power law still working because we're in the lower part of the trend and we but we were about to point 4 to in the trend for a few weeks there last month and now we're at approximately 0.52 or 0.53. If you're only half as bullish as I am you wake up with that feeling with that craving every single day. How can I get more Bitcoin and I finally found an amazing product that solves exactly this problem the company's called inviti and they have this feature called turbo buy when you buy a hundred

12:04and 60 years back in Bitcoin. So over time when you accumulate into Bitcoin you end up with more Bitcoin than you would have bought with a normal DCA plan. Go to inviti.io slash Robin download the app and use code Robin that's R O B I N code Robin with which you get up to 50 years on your first buys back in Bitcoin and let's stack more Bitcoin together. I just pause just pause. Yeah, I like that a lot and you know what I noticed and this also the feeling I got from from Bitcoin being in Bitcoin. I've been in Bitcoin since 2020 and 211 was crazy. I've that it was a crazy amount of euphoria everyone was talking about it. Friends were asking me about it. It was just like crazy to be in Bitcoin at that time.

13:05And this was right around like here, October September 211 where we broke towards this upper bound ceiling of free X and after that we never really got that euphoria again and it's nice. First of all to see the data on that because I didn't feel the euphoria even though we hit 100 K even though we hit like 120 something K we had all those hundred K parties. But nobody seemed to care about that and it shows in a data that we just never went into euphoria into like this max ceiling kind of levels. What do you think this is? Is this like a new kind of like more stable progression of Bitcoin where it's harder for it to go down harder for it to go massively up and it's just like slowly progresses. Yeah, I do think the volatility is decreasing. It's really hard to say I don't have a strong point of view on it. I think one of the observations I find interesting is in that 2022 20 or sorry the 2021 period.

14:13I think it was 2021 maybe it's 2022. You can see this sort of relatively high part of the spikes there. This is before I started to get into the parallel and think I think we got it to a high of about 67,000 or so at that time at that part of the curve. And I didn't realize that that was a that was a spike if you will I didn't realize that we were at three X the trend because I was a following Bitcoin then an arguably that was an interesting time to actually recognize this data and possibly that arguably could have been a time to take some off the table. But then recently what's interesting is I guess it was around late last year we got to 125,000 or 126,000 dollars and that's actually closer to the medium part of the trend. It's it doesn't look like a like a spike. So I do think it's interesting that that's one of the reasons maybe it's interesting to at least look at the power law before considering the entry point into Bitcoin or potentially taking some off the off the table.

15:17Because it is quite revealing in terms of what happened. I mean, I'm certainly very bullish now and I do think we're we're due for return to the to the highs. I do expect over the next couple of years it's going to be very good for for Bitcoin. But yeah, that's other than that. That's a battle I can say I don't know exactly what's going to happen over the next six months or a year, but generally speaking over the next two years, I think we're I think we're ready to get back to all time highs and beyond it. Yeah, I think that you for you will come back for some time. I feel like we I don't know maybe I'm wrong, but I have I have the gut feeling that with all the things going on, we have a chance that you for you comes back to Bitcoin. Yeah, I think there's so just an next point that's very interesting on the power law if you go lower in the page to even beyond that this actually if you go further to the to the and even further dance, right at the out of sample validation.

16:24Yeah, if you go to this graph, exactly the early data predicts the the future. This is a very interesting point there's actually two points that I will make here that maybe interesting in particular to people who are skeptical of the power law. So the first point and it's not it's not actually covered here. I probably should have covered it earlier is the idea that one of the reasons the power law curve is so interesting is that it has from a statistical standpoint. So it has an R squared of 95% which means that without getting into the details of the statistics, it means that 95% of Bitcoin's price in a relate is is described by the power law. 95% isn't which is a very which is a very high R R squared. And if you handed that to a statistician, they will go, yeah, that's a very high R squared. But the statistician may also say, well, it still doesn't mean definitively that that is a very firm correlation that could be some.

17:28It's not enough to make that determination. So this part here, which we're just going to touch on, is is the idea of looking at out of sample data. What I mean by that is that right now it's August 25, 2026 and we saw the power law and higher in the page what that data looks like and the curve. What I'm going to suggest which which the actual default here is that we're looking at in the pages, what if we only looked at data that went out to the end of 2017 and we we had no information on what the next nine years of data would look like. This is the graph that that this is the line of fit trend line based on just data up to 2017 and you can see that the in actual fact what happens is that we're just 1% off versus if you included all of the data and up until today, which is kind of crazy.

18:29So it's very predictive now if you if you did go earlier, yeah, you can click on earlier versions, you can see that we're a bit more off and it's still a pretty good line of fit. But yeah, and if you go to 2014, you can see this is very interesting because it kind of falls apart. We're way off. So if you're only looking at data that happened up to 2014 and you try to predict the future, the future would look a lot more rosy than it does today. But I think I think that's just recognizing that it's very little data and it's at a very early part of Bitcoin's history, which is pretty crazy. So once you go later later, it's, you know, it's it's pretty close. So so this is the second factor that sort of compounds the R square, the idea that wow out of sample data can be so predictive. It means that this is a very, very useful tool. And again, if you handed this to a diss to a statistician who was completely dispassionate with regard to Bitcoin, I didn't know anything about it. They would look at this day and go, wow, yeah, this is an incredible relationship. And one final point I will say is that this 95% R squared.

19:33If you look at any other financial asset, no other asset has any kind of relationship like this. And in fact, I think Fred Kruger mentioned it in his book on the covering the parallel that even an 80% R squared on any other financial asset would be remarkable. So it's certainly very interesting to when I think it's worth paying attention to the parallel on the context of Bitcoin. And you could ignore it at your at your peril. What do you think is Bitcoin so predictable and other investments are way less? Yeah, it's a very good question. I think the foundational answer there is the fact that Bitcoin is a system. Bitcoin is a network. No other stock is a system or a network like Bitcoin is. It's closer to Bitcoin is closer to describing the growth of the internet, the growth of mobile phones, those sort of events which have network effects.

20:34So this starts to get into another law at Maccalfe's law on that where the value of the network increases with the square or the value of the network increases in in with the relationship to how many users are using the network. The value is the square of the number of users using it. So yeah, I think this episode is brought to you by Subaru. You know that place your mind always wanders to the lake, the mountains, the homes of the people you love most. The completely redesigned 2026 Subaru Outback is built to help you get there with legendary capability, standards and metrical all-wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru Outback, love never looked so good. Visit Subaru.com slash outback to learn more. The new LinkedIn hiring pro can't under your last tire, the no show. Who set you back because they didn't show up on day one or day two or ever again? And now your product launch has delayed because you're talking to alien abduction podcasters to track them down.

21:36But LinkedIn hiring pro can help make sure you're next hire six. In fact, businesses who use LinkedIn are 24% less likely to reopen a role in the next 12 months. Higher write the first time with LinkedIn hiring pro. Post a free job today at linkedin.com slash quality. I think Bitcoin is a system being adopted globally. And the more people who are using it, the more compelling it is, the more useful it is, the more valuable it is. And I think it gets us closer to the end game. I think most of us think that Bitcoin is in a migration or a transition where we're transitioning from the fiat-enominated world to the Bitcoin-enominated world. And those are two very different worlds. And yeah, it's not just an asset. It's not just an asset. It's a system. And that's why it has these growth characteristics. Yeah, it's also interesting when you compare, for example, any kind of stock and then Bitcoin, there is no other investment that you can make that has a community like Bitcoin that meets all over the place has a regular meetups has so many conferences and so many different parts in the world.

22:46I think it's almost like a city. It's almost like a mechanism. Yeah, like Bitcoin is a movement. It's a global movement, which is very different to any other asset. What else is on a mentions right here? Yeah, just a couple more things to mention. Yeah, you've just kind of a little bit lower in the pace there, which is great. And the visual we're looking at here is the idea of, okay, where we are in the trend right now. It's recognizing that most of the time actually we are below trend. So 57% of the time, and Bitcoin's price is below trend. So it's not like a 50 50 people might assume like 50% above 50 and the reason for that is that they lower band of the power laws very stable. It's not very volatile. That lower band is 0.42 or 0.43. And the upper band has had these spikes historically. So it spikes much much higher. So it's just an interesting observation.

23:51But maybe one of the takeaways is the fact that, okay, we've been below trend a long time. But in some ways, that's more normal than you might think because it's not 50 50 it's 57% we are below trend. If you go a bit lower in the page as well, maybe just one more fun thing to take a look at even lower actually this is a complex part where there's. Yeah, we don't need to get into it, but there's the actual slope of the power law has different exponents and there's there's some subjectivity on which exponent to use. And then the final part here is just a fun little infographic or interaction where you can move that slider there to see, okay, where are we right now it says right now where we are at the floor where we are at the trends and where we will be. And you can slide it from today's year to the future and see what the trend what the power law suggests where we will be in in different years and this is actually a relatively conservative exponent that I'm using as well. So it's the most conservative. So all of the data on this page is the most conservative.

24:54It's fun like the having a million dollar as a floor of having like headlines like Bitcoin crash to like a million dollars I'm looking forward to those times. Absolutely, absolutely. And there's just one final part on this page we can touch on before moving on to the next exploration, the third exploration where if you go higher in the page actually it's back to where an area I skipped over which is the compound annual growth rate of Bitcoin it's a kind of a graph. It higher again higher again keep going keep going there there we go so yeah this is a visual just to recognize that and Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate or it's implied compound annual growth rate is is very high and has been higher it's it's high right now. But it's and this is also a conservative measure as I mentioned. Right now we were in the in the 30s maybe the maybe the mid 30s of compound apply compound growth rate but but 2.2 extra points to make is that the compound annual growth rate is decreasing over time.

26:04And this matches up with the with the power law is that as we get more people and the network as the network grows the overall growth of the network slows. And the associated compound annual growth rate also decreases but the third and final point here is that it's still much higher than conventional assets like the S&P 500 or the or the NASDAQ. And in fact it's going to remain higher on average for the next few decades and so that's an important point it's not like yeah it's just I'll just I'll just leave it at that. And this this sort of brings us in we can whenever you're ready is that we can move over to the next exploration which touches on them. This is an exploration called Bitcoin escape velocity and and broadly this touches on the area of Bitcoin retirement which I have a few explorations on I think it's something a lot of us are interested in it's close to our heart.

27:05And when we think of the opportunity as big pointers I guess to consider retiring on Bitcoin there's really three in my mind there's there's three broad variables to be mindful of the first is like when do I when do we time our retirement when do we want to retire and how much will our stack be then how much Bitcoin we have. And finally when we start drawing on our retirement what sort of income annual income what we want to cover our lifestyle and those are there's a broadie the three the three variables so and this is an interaction where you can put in all of your data and and by the way obviously this is an experience where you don't sign in or register and so it's it's like anonymous you don't have to share. But it's just a fun interaction and but the defaults I have there are 2035 retirements just just one Bitcoin and an annual a intended annual withdrawal of 100,000 and you can put any other numbers in there but if we just start with those numbers I have those numbers in there for a reason because when you go a little bit lower you'll see this interact this this visual that captures the idea of escape velocity and what I mean by escape velocity is there's a lot of value and we're going to have a lot of value in this.

28:26But I think it's a very powerful idea in the concept of retirement and it's not just in the context of Bitcoin you can think of it in any other assets that you have for retirement but it's the idea that and based on those three variables that I mentioned the year you retire what your Bitcoin stack is and how much income you want to draw and will you be free like will you will you have enough so that as the years go go buy you will not run out of money during your retirement and in fact I'm going to have a lot of money. In fact you actually escape velocity means that you actually reach a point where you have more money every year than you did the previous year so which gives you an tremendous amount of comfort that you're not going to run out of money. So this is actually very carefully balanced there like I picked the inputs above to and you can see that you were actually not quite at escape escape velocity here it's very delicate it's a delicate balance. So what I and in fact just to read some of the text here it says that okay for the assuming that you want to retire for you expect to live for say 30 years after retirement so from 35 to 65 and your your growth in this particular scenario your growth based on on the power law trend line your growth and would stop covering your withdrawals after 2056 and it would be still it would be continued to fall after 20 65.

29:53So let's tinker with one of the like say the retirement year above where it says 2035 let's just move that out and one or two years so instead of retiring a 2035. Yes and now suddenly we went for so the opportunity here is now we're considering retirement retirement two years later 2037 and now we're at escape velocity now our stack will exceed our our income the retirement income that we choose from 2038 onwards so we're out escape velocity which is great. So obviously nothing in here is a guarantee this is just based on the power law trend line and but it's an interesting way to put in one zone variables and play with them and see and hey can I reach escape velocity which I think for me anyway is a very interesting goal a very powerful goal. Yeah and it's it also shows the power of even one Bitcoin if you think about your one Bitcoin 2037 is now what 11 years not even away from from the day and you're getting a hundred K per year as to withdrawal that like that's of course a hundred K like this is it all this debates of like what what will inflation do to all those models but.

31:15But I would argue the more inflation the higher just all the prices will be like if the US dollar just inflates away tremendously then you can easily take out maybe 150,000 because then the whole whole calculation will be different so like like that's that's massive is that how do you actually calculate for inflation here is that like in the days. Yes, but I also like how do you do that. Yeah, there's actually if you go to the to the lowest part the lower part of the page there's there's a long yeah if you go lower and lower lower there's a. This episode is brought to you by Subaru you know that place your mind always wanderers to the lake the mountains the homes of the people you love most the completely redesigned 2026 Subaru outback is built to help you get there with legendary capability standard symmetrical all wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru outback love never looked so good visit Subaru dot com slash out back to learn more.

32:17Here's a report oh thanks Jane I wish I could hire someone just like you try LinkedIn hiring pro it's more than a job board it's like the recruiter you always wish to you had hiring pro uses real time insights to match your role to LinkedIn's unique network of professionals and delivers a short list of best fit candidates you'll spend less time sorting applicants and more time talking to the right people let's do it you're a replaceable Jane. But another you would be great higher right the first time poster job for free on LinkedIn today at link didn dot com slash quality link for assumptions baseline assumption if you keep going lower. It's yeah yeah just a little bit higher. It's not it's not at the end of the page I know it's hard to if you go higher and higher higher. Keep going higher. Yeah there and where it says change on the right hand side there's a there's a assumptions there and you can change them to think of been in today's dollars or future dollars because yeah what people think today like hey I want an income when I retire of $100,000.

33:18And by the time you get to retirement in 2035 or so then more more likely you'll need $180,000 or whatever the number is so it makes those assumptions and that you can pick different assumptions on in inflation yeah I'm picking like 6.5% right now just as the default. You can also do a much more yeah yeah I think so yeah and you could do a much more conservative model of this we're right now we're assuming the trend line of the power law you can actually even choose the floor of the power law which would be an extremely conservative plan but also can be useful to make sure that you know if you have a lot of Bitcoin that to make sure that even in conditions where it's sad at the floor and you would still be comfortable. Yeah and there's one other thing maybe if you go yeah if you're back on the trend line if you go higher in the page another interaction that is fun is this one right here so just yeah the threshold this is an interaction where and keeping in mind the three variables I talked about earlier the

34:25when you're going to retire how much Bitcoin you have at your point of retirement and your intended income you can move these you can actually slide those variables slightly you can think so you can think about hey if I retired a little bit later say say on the top line for if I're tired a little bit later what would happen. And if you move that you can see that these lines below start moving so just as an example what to what Robin is doing in the pages okay now we're at say 2040 so the opportunity what would happen if I retired five years later and you can see actually now instead of meeting one Bitcoin you don't need point eight Bitcoin to have the same conditions and similarly instead of retiring having a withdrawal of 100,000 you can now withdraw 120 4,500 so it just allows you to consider those trade off because certainly each of these when you change one of these variables to change the other two so it gives you a little bit of a perspective on the trade off that we all face when we think about when to retire and so I thought that was interesting as well and there's there's text below that sort of just some helps to summarize some of those variables on and kind of a sensitivity analysis like hey what if I retired when you're earlier versus when you're late.

35:44So I think that's a little bit later or if I had a little bit more stack or a little bit less stack and that so helps interesting I left. And as a really like a really nice answer yeah. Yeah and if you go a little bit lower sorry a bit of an echo there sorry yeah just here the growth versus spending so this is another way to think about how your your overall stack or the value or your stack changes during your retirement and if you mouse over any of those bars it gives you full day. And at the top of the screen it's carried over those those three variables so you can keep tinkering with them if you want to get to to see this sensitivity analysis on how your stack sort of depletes over over time year by year which is a very useful thing to think about. Finally maybe just one one thing to to touch on this if you go a little bit lower be in the page below the assumption there's a line there for verify the sorry a little bit higher.

36:51Yeah there's a verify the math so you can actually this actually verifies all the math for you as well so you can just grab that copy to a CSV and a spreadsheet and validate for yourself that where all the all the assumptions are so it gives you. gives you higher confidence in the everything that you see on the page I try to do this for many of the aspirations i'm a little bit behind on some pages but the ideas to always show show the work. That's really nice I love that it's actually it might just be the most comprehensive retire on Bitcoin side that I've seen so far with the most black. Thanks. adjustability the math behind it super open while so you can change everything you want you can export it you can put your assumptions in export it put it in your own AI models and all of those things so I like it. Yeah cool thanks and actually this is my third expiration on retirement so there's just as an aside we don't have to cover them here but there's two others there's a foundational.

37:57expiration I did on retiring on Bitcoin the Bitcoin retirement and then there's another one I did on the Bitcoin stress test which is this idea that just imagine you time your your retirement and then months later we have a bear market and can you live through that bear market and because one of the challenges in a scenario like that is that you're withdrawing your monetary energy or you're spending Bitcoin in that period where Bitcoin is is is a relatively low price and. I think all this Bitcoin is hate that idea of having a sell Bitcoin went and prices low so it's an interesting scenario to consider and there's there's one or two more i'll be working on as well I want to do another one on and kind of a comparison of scenarios so you see them side by side and. Yeah really cool i like very so so good it's almost overwhelming it is a bit overwhelming there's a lot of density to some of these but you know Bitcoin is complicated and there's only so much you can simplify.

38:59So but yeah it's it's been fun working on these as well because I face the same questions as a bit corner like i'm interested in the idea of retiring a Bitcoin and when it can happen in the conditions under which it can happen so most of these explorations I do for myself as well. Yeah I think and there's one more thing that you brought here let me show it is the stretch mechanism which I think could potentially be like a game changer for Bitcoin and retirement but how do you look at it. yeah it's interesting so the strc which which is an instrument that. Micro strategy released and there's a page that I sent you as well that's kind of an infographic which maybe we're we're showing there is the est so the the exploration you have on the screen right now is the strc mechanism it's it's a pretty dense exploration it's pretty deep. And there's a lot to cover there maybe maybe too much in the context of this and podcast but there's there's a single page image which I sent as well which is probably more more of a useful visual yeah so this is from from my sub stack actually I have a sub stack newsletter which I also do try to do something once a week and I did an exploration on strc.

40:22And this is an infographic I came up with and the idea is really thinking about strc as in comparison to two other assets so on the left hand side we have Bitcoin and Bitcoin has certain characteristics which we're all very familiar with it is extremely high compound annual growth rate but also high volatility. And with that in in many ways it's unsurprising that it's not an asset for everybody everybody on the far on the other end of the spectrum we have a very very conservative asset class like fixed income and which is like very relatively low yield and approximately 4.3% say. But extremely low volatility so it's very predictable and so you know in some ways unsurprisingly there's it's a very large asset class you know tens of trillions and that people have in their portfolio to give them a reliable income or a reliable yield. But the challenge with that 4.3% as many of us big pointers though is that that nominal yield is less than the real rate of inflation so it's not a really good it's a melting ice cube.

41:33So not a very smart place to park your money over the long term and strc launched by strategy is in this middle seat if you will which is the name of the infographic which is a very powerful value proposition I think. Not for for big pointers like not for me like I'm not the the customer and I think Robin maybe you're not the customer for strc because we're big pointers and we have a longer term view and we're happy to take the compound annual growth rate and even though it's highly highly volatile but I think there is this large audience of investors who are not interested in making that that trade off. They just want a very reliable yield and and it can be smaller so strc fills this this gap where you have a much higher yield of approximately 12% I think they vote on it every month or so to change that so it can go up and down a little bit and we've seen that happen over the last couple of months or so.

42:37And it's essentially backed by Bitcoin so it's backed by micro strategy which has like 840,000 or so. This episode is brought to you by Subaru you know that place your mind always wanderers to the lake the mountains the homes of the people you love most the completely redesigned 2026 Subaru outback is built to help you get there with legendary capability standard symmetrical all wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru outback love never looked so good visit Subaru.com slash out back to learn more. The new LinkedIn hiring pro can't undo your last tire the human post-poner they were the master of one phrase all circle back on that but three months later you were the one doing all their work and wondering how big that circle is. But LinkedIn hiring pro can take the hiring load off your plate by automating the hiring busy work from the initial job post to scheduling interviews higher right the first time with LinkedIn hiring pro.

43:39Post a free job today at LinkedIn.com slash quality. Bitcoin on its balance sheet so it's you can I think of it as over collateralized like highly over collateralized by micro strategy overall so it's very safe. So I think it's a very interesting instrument you have a much a yield that is orders of magnitude higher than the alternative fixed income yields by by treasuries. You still have in my mind a very high safety or or security with that yield so it's it's a really beautiful thing. And I think the customers would be those those fiat conventional fixed income customers that the more they become aware of this the more they dip their toes into this into strc I think it can be very compelling for them. So it's very interesting about this is that this then becomes a very interesting pathway to be coinization to this migration from the fiat and nominated world to the Bitcoin to nominate world that we all want to see.

44:41I think this is a really wonderful pathway in a very innovative pathway. This very high this relatively high fixed income yield of 12% it's absolutely predicated on the success of big coins continued growth over time it's high company growth rate so obviously if Bitcoin something happens to be coin then that then that's strc becomes at risk but I'll just pause there. I'm not selling the washer micro seed is selling the device that stamps the washer you get the full kit with the device with the washers with the hammer with everything you need to get started today and you can make with that unlimited amount of backups go now to micro seed dot IO.

45:57I just talked with a strategy investor and financial analyst actually about Tesla and strategy and he loves the preferred stocks and this stretch from from MST because he's also looking from a seeing the portfolio of someone in a in a whole sense and seeing that Bitcoin is a very sovereign asset it's amazing then strategy is a balance. It is a balance sheet asset it it raised the stock goes up when the when the balance sheet when they increase the balance sheet Tesla for example other companies like Google all of those things they are dependent on the income statement so they get value based on the income statement and then stretch is amazing because it delivers you you income and so like we have now so many options to put something really interesting together I'm mostly just in Bitcoin. So I don't do a lot of other things even like I do some MST and some some ESST but that is a small part of the world thing I'm mostly just a lunatic 100% in Bitcoin but it's really interesting to see all those models all those assets all all those different tools that we now have do our disposal and I think most people are not aware of them and I think because I think that we have a lot of money to do with the money.

47:25We just try to keep a through quit system knows how many Betcoins there is of Bitcoin's innovation they will come so much more money through but through strategy through strategy through strive through all those other these are meant directly to Bitcoin is kinda helping accelerate the overall Bitcoin but Bitconnization if you will. I think maybe one of two other points as well is that STRC launched maybe less than a year ago and we've been in essentially a bear market. So it's very challenging conditions that STRC launched in. And I think there's a kind of a lindy effect that will happen over time where the longer as you move into a bear, into a bull market, I think we'll get more interest in Bitcoin generally and including Bitcoin derivative assets like STRC. And when users start to own STRC for longer periods of time, they'll get more confidence

48:30in it like I think five years time, there'll be much higher confidence in STRC because they'll have seen it perform very reliably and predictably over time. And it will be increasingly more difficult to retain treasury holdings at rather than hold holdings like at STRC and SATA. So yeah, I think it's just a question of time. Like just in just like Bitcoin needs time to show what it has and show its dependability and it never it doesn't die. Similarly STRC will benefit over time from them continuing to thrive. One on a percent. How do you actually look at strategy as like an amplified Bitcoin position as a company? Yeah, I haven't looked at it as closely as I have STRC. I personally think that I expect strategy to outperform Bitcoin during the bull market.

49:33I do think that we'll see that amplification continue. How much that amplification is, whether it's 1.5x2x or 4x or that, I know you've had one or two people on the show that think that amplification rate could be very high. I'm not sure about that, but I do think it will be amplified during the Bitcoin bear market. Sorry, the Bitcoin bull market. So I think it's worth having a position. I think like you that I'm mainly in Bitcoin and I don't have any any strategy. When I think out into the long term though, I think it's interesting to think through scenarios where there are potential risks to micro to micro strategy or strategy that we don't have to Bitcoin. All of these things have different risk profiles and with micro strategy, I would even see potential scenario where the government might take a position in micro strategy to the extent that Bitcoin becomes increasingly valuable. We've seen that happen, like for example, with it taking position in Intel for national

50:36security reasons, strategic reasons, we could see similar, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a similar event with strategy where the government takes some position in that. I think what's amazing about when you compare Bitcoin versus strategy as a stock, one of the things that I like about Bitcoin is its unique optionality and its feature set where I can take Bitcoin and I can go across borders, I can go globally. Nobody knows that I'm traveling with Bitcoin and I can take it anywhere. It's able to go through those capital controls and so forth and something like micro strategy. Obviously, isn't it's a stock in the US market? And ultimately, to take advantage of Bitcoin's optionality, you eventually have to sell strategy and then that will be a capital gains taxable event. So I think it's just worth being mindful of the differences between the assets and the

51:38implications. Maybe not only now in the next one or two years, but in 10 or 15 or 20 years. Thanks, so too. Michael, we have a question that asked, I think every single guest on my podcast, I hope and didn't forget it with anyone. And the question is, what can we learn from you besides Bitcoin? Wow. I think many of us, big coins, we have other hobbies and maybe another interest or hobby that may be relevant for other big coiners is longevity. So I think that's, I'm certainly not an expert and I'm just started to dabble. But it's very interesting to think more broadly than just the asset of Bitcoin. But how can we live longer and how can we take advantage of that and how can we have

52:43a high quality of life even laid into age? So longevity is another hobby I've started to dabble with. But I don't know about learning from me per se on longevity, but I think getting interested in longevity as a big coin, I think, is a very sort of complementary interest. Yeah, because if you're a bit corner, you realize after time that time is the most valuable resources. You can never make back your time, but you can always make back or not always. You have a better chance in making back some Bitcoin than making back some time. Yeah, yeah, yeah, time is a one-way street. Really cool. As you might also know, we have an entertain in the podcast where the brewers guest is asking a question for the next guest without knowing who the next guest actually is. And the brewers guest asked you the question. It's an interesting one.

53:45How are we going to restrain AI and make sure they don't destroy us? Yeah, it's a difficult one. I think maybe part of the opportunity will be if AI realizes that it has to work with humans then to be more successful as opposed to work against humans. Because there's this term I've heard before, a meat space where we're in the meat space and the AI isn't. And arguably there are benefits to a savvy AI to work with the meat space to maximize whatever goals that they have versus not so hopefully they will still have a need for humans. I think as well, humans, even though I increasingly find AI is creative, I do use AI a lot.

54:45It always makes mistakes as well. And I think even though AI will keep getting better every day, it's going to be better and better. I do think there's a human element, especially of creativity, that will always be very useful that the AI cannot fully match. Yeah, just a few thoughts there. Yeah, thanks a two AI. AI will be a fun one. I think we will see a very different world in 2040, not just in the Bitcoin world but also in the in the I word. It's crazy. How AI already took over my life in the last three years. By the way, did you also do the website with help of AI? Probably right? Absolutely, absolutely. I do a lot of work with Cloud Code. Yeah, I've been a product manager in Silicon Valley for the last 25, 26 years.

55:46So I have a lot of general experience working with software and user experience and that. I'm not a developer and I'm not super technical. I'm sort of more on the business side. I'm a bit more the MBA type. So it's been very transformative to be able to leverage AI to build stuff that I wouldn't have been able to build a couple of years ago. I also use notebook LAM, which is one of the AI tools that Google has for research. So even researching topics like STRC and that, that's a very useful tool for the AI. That's a very useful tool for gathering research and then to sort of gather a corpus of material that is relevant for the topic and then to be able to query that corpus and get very detailed answers that's super useful. And then finally, I use GROC for some of the videos that I have and images on my website as well. But yeah, it's super useful and I do encourage.

56:46I think there's a lot of people who are not using AI and are pushing back on AI and they don't like the trend in AI. But I do think that in order to be successful, successful, it's worth embracing AI and taking advantage of it and playing with it. And it is a lot of fun. And I think I don't know whose podcast it was on, whether it was yours or it might have been Ram Kahn's team, but somebody was talking about how they describe AI and it was a really fun metaphor. It was like walking down the street and finding an Iron Man suit lying on the ground and you just put on the suit and you turn into a superhero. And that's kind of what it feels like sometimes. It can really extend your own capabilities and creativity and amplify them and be a kind of a force multiplier for one's talents. So take advantage of it. One on a person. I love that analogy. It was definitely not on my podcast. I would have remembered that one. Big Iron Man fan.

57:48So really cool. Before I let you go, where can people find this amazing website, where can people find you and all the things that you're doing? Yeah. Yeah, the website is lastcoinstanding.com. And I'm last coin standing on Twitter. I think it's just instead of ING at the end, it's NG because it's only certain amount of characters on Twitter. So you'll find me there. And I also do a newsletter on Substack under last coin standing as well. So, yeah, definitely. I welcome feedback. There is a feedback little form and there's my email on the website and welcome feedback and also any suggestions on any additional features of functionality or new explorations that anybody would be interested in Bitcoin related. Absolutely. Thank you so much, John, for being on the podcast. And also thank you so much for having me this watching and listening for training us today. As always, I'll be back.

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