Ep. 4150 The GOP Just FLIPPED Their FIRST SEAT Before the MIDTERMS!!!'

0:00The Liberal Globalist Order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age. On Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-vinylization of conservative civilization. This is Turley Talks. We've got some breaking news here. We haven't even gotten to a single election day ballot count yet. The Republican Party has already flipped the first seat of the entire 2026 midterm cycle. This could absolutely blow you away. A state supreme court and a state Democrats of control for a generation just handed the GOP a free seat and it happened because the Democrat Party couldn't even follow its own election laws. It's just too good. It all comes on the heels of a bombshell Harvard Harris poll showing the Democrats losing the midterms. We've got the latest on the insane ruling from the Missouri Supreme Court that just upended

1:02their redistricting map for now and why even the legacy media is beginning to realize that it looks increasingly like the Democrats are about to blow the midterms. You are not going to want to miss this. Greetings everyone. It is livestream Friday. I am your host Dr. Steve Rebater, Professor. Here to help you make sense of the madness. We're breaking news and analysis. You're not going to get anywhere else you know to do. Make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button. As always our super chats are up. So feel free to send in your comments and questions throughout the broadcast. It will be my privilege, my honor to answer them right here on this livestream. Also a quick programming. Now what do you think of my new shirt here? Let me see how I get up. Siv Cosm right over the last few weeks. I've told you about my latest book, Siv Cosm, what it's all about. As you can see it right here displayed so faithfully. Why I wrote it. And what we're going to build together starting September 8th during my master class on this

2:04book. This shirt that I've got on here. It's not for sale. It's not merch. It's exclusive to those who signed up for the complete bundle. And we shipped it to my founding class this week. I just got mine along with the signed hardcover of my brand new book, Siv Cosm, God's algorithms and the rise of a civilizational cause democracy. Plus a few more goodies. So for the next 24 hours, I'm making it easy. Code, Turley 30. That's Turley 30. Get to $30 off. Siv Cosm essential or the complete bundle. Tomorrow that offer is gone. That's it because we're starting on Tuesday. And so this is your shot at being here for it. My first session starts Tuesday night, 7pm online. I want you there. It's live. You can ask your questions and the like. You don't even have to have read the book. I'm going to walk you through the book and this amazing civilizational cause democracy that is emerging through the MAGA movement but also through what China is doing, Russia's

3:07doing, India's doing, the Middle East and the like. So scan the QR code below to register and I can't wait to see you there. Where's that QR code? There it is. I love that QR code. Can't wait to see you guys there and you get a cool t shirt to my to boot. All right. Let's dive right in here. Yeah. So it really just happened. The GOP just picked up its first seat of the midterms. Thanks to colossal Democrat incompetence colliding head on with the rule of law. So here's what happened. This is a state representative seat. But I think it is a harbinger of what's to come for Congress as a whole. So in New Mexico's House of Representatives, the Democrat running in their district for race, was a first term Democrat represented by the name of Joseph Hernandez. He had to withdraw from the race back on August 25th. It's about 70 days out from the midterms after there were reports surfacing about an alleged

4:09alcohol related incident in a Chicago hotel during a legislative Congress. I'm not getting into details there. But the problem here is that New Mexico law says that a political party can only fill a vacancy created by a withdrawal. If that vacancy happens at least 90 days before the general election. So this withdrawal happened 70 days before the day. So that's after the 90 day cutoff. Now the Democrats didn't care. Like they never care. They don't care about the law, the rule of law. They only care about power. So they put another Democrat in his place, even though the deadline to fill the vacancy had already passed. So New Mexico Republicans to their credit took it to court. And the courts said that because Hernandez pulled out too late, the Democrat party never actually had the legal authority to replace him. And then it went to the new Mexico Supreme Court.

5:10And in a four to one decision, as of yesterday, they upheld that exact reasoning. And even their Democrat to her credit, even their Democrat secretary of state sided with the county clerks on this. He actually asked the Supreme Court to settle the dispute before the September 4th ballot certification deadline. So this isn't some partisan Republican judge cooking up a technicality. This is New Mexico's own top Democrat election official agreeing that state law simply does not allow what her own party tried to do. So bottom line, the District 4 Republican is running unopposed. It's just effectively picked up the first seat of the 2026 midterms. It's a seat that has been Democrat held. And because of the Democrats screw up thinking they were above the law, they just got themselves barred from the ballot so that this Republican, her name is Heather Ellison. She's a Navajo educator with 35 years serving children and families in that community.

6:12She's now the only candidate on the ballot. The Republicans have effectively flipped a Democrat held seat in the New Mexico state house. This is a chamber, the Democrats have run for years. And Republicans just picked off a seat before election day due to sheer Democrat mismanagement of their own candidate recruitment. It's a small story with a very big signal because it shows a Democrat party in disarray and exactly the moment it needs its bench to be strongest heading into the midterms at the beginning of September. Now the reason why I think that this could indeed be a harbinger of what's to come for Congress in November is that this seat pick up comes on the heels of that massive midterm bombshell that just dropped the other day. And that's coming from Harvard Harris, one of the single most accurate polling outlets

7:12out there in their latest generic ballot poll, which has likely voters, which party they plan to vote for in the midterms. Republicans for the first time in over a year are now ahead, 51 to 49. Republicans up by two at the very start of September, right, right where you want to be ahead. This is where the race really begins, particularly after Labor Day and the starting gun hit and Republicans were ahead. And remember, this is exactly the point in the calendar when Republican voters historically start tuning back in to politics after a little summer reprieve as a Republican families take their summer vacations and check back into politics come Labor Day. Whereas the polling all summer tends to artificially skew towards Democrats. That's the so-called summer response bias for context back in March.

8:14Harvard Harris had Democrats up by four points among likely voters by July. That Democrat lead had shrunk to two points. And now in this late August survey, this is August 28 to 30. It's flipped to the Republicans plus two. This is a full six point swing in the Republicans direction in just five months. And it's the very first time any pollster has shown Republicans ahead among likely voters, by the way, since October of 2025. Now if you want a sense of who we're dealing with here in terms of Harvard Harris, terms of their polling track record, here's Harvard Harris's numbers going into the 2018 midterms. So the Harris you're seeing there on the left, that's not Kamala, okay, that's Harvard here, that's a polling outlet. And take a look at their numbers going in from especially from August 822 to 823.

9:18Democrats plus eight, then their next one a month later in September 2627. Democrats plus nine, a few days later. Democrats plus eight. And they're October, the final October, one Democrats plus nine. So Harvard Harris going into the 2018 midterms from late August all the way into November, they pulled the generic ballot at Democrats at plus eight or nine. As it turns out, the Democrats won the midterms by a margin of drum roll plus eight. And Harris was dead on as they normally are for midterms. They're a very good, very accurate polling outlet. By contrast, if you want to see the nonsense that's out there in the polling, this is what we got from Reuters' Ipsauce just weeks before November 2024. This was in September. They were actually telling us that Kamala Harris was going to win by seven points.

10:23Again, these are the same polling outlets that are telling us that Trump is down in the low 30s and the like. They're just left wing propaganda outlets who've been proven wrong time and time again. Whereas Harvard Harris has proven their bonafides time and time again. They are a legit polling outlet and they're showing the Republicans right now with an unprecedented lead going into the midterms. Now, here's another fun fact for you. So this is from Quantis Insights again, and not one of the most accurate pollsters of 2024. They have some stats here. The RCP generic ballot right now is D plus 5.7. Democrat plus 5.7. So that's the real clear politics aggregated average of all the polls out there, the good, the bad and the ugly and the Democrats right now, even with all the ugly for us, that is the propaganda polls. And with all of that, they're only at a plus 5.7.

11:25What Quantis notes here is that if you look back at the last six elections, Republicans beat the final average in five of the past six elections. And this is because polls are always, always, always skewed to the left. The polling industry is a left wing industry. It's an industry dominated by liberals and polling analyst Patrick Rufini recently looked at over 3300 polls across the last four election cycles and found that polls on average overestimate Democrats by four points. And during the summer months, specifically, that error rate jumps up to nearly six points. So remember, it's called the summer response wise, legacy media knows it. The legacy media knows there is a summer response bias in favor of the Democrats, but they don't tell you because it's all propaganda. But regardless, if we apply those historical errors in just the past midterms, what that

12:30means is that the Democrats plus 5.7 actually drops into a Democrat plus 4.9. If you just average out how the Republicans overperform midterm numbers, right? That's just using the average Republican overperformance in midterms. It drops to Democrat 3.9 plus 3.9 using all six elections and D plus 2.9 using presidential years. So the Democrats still lead, but far more narrowly, if the historical polling bias persists this year. And according to Harvard Harris, it most certainly is persisting. Harvard Harris actually has, by contrast to all these other polls, Republicans in the lead by two. It's an R plus 2 right now. Now, again, I don't want you to lose sight of how unprecedented this is. We have to remember that the party in the White House, and I'm always going to qualify

13:30this because we have to make sure, right? It's the stockdale principle. You want to take a very sober assessment of the dire nature you're in and at the same time never lose hope that you are going to prevail. It's the arrogant principle, right? When they were defending the keep with the writers of Rohan, it's like you never lose hope. I know all the odds are stacked against this, but we never lose hope. That's how we win. So we always have to remember in terms of the dire element of this is that the party in power, that's the party that's in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms. It happened to Republicans in a big way back in 2018. It happened to Reagan in 2026, right? Frankly, there have only been three exceptions to that rule over the past 100 years or so,

14:301934, 1998, 2002. There's the only times the party in power actually gains seats. So Democrats going into the cycle should, by the historical pattern alone, be sitting comfortably ahead by six, seven, eight, nine points. And instead, they're either up by three or four, or they're actually behind as per this Harvard Harris polling. So that's nothing short of a stunning reversal, the normal midterm dynamic. Again, we're already seeing this in the seat projections. Cook political report has the Republicans forecasted right now as we speak to win more safe seats than Democrats, 209 seats to Democrats, 205 with 21 toss ups. Republicans also have a huge money advantage over the Democrats. They have about a half a billion dollars more money to spend all put all together, including Elon now is coming in and dumping a few hundred million in the races.

15:34That's important because one study found that the congressional candidate, this is not presidential candidate, these are congressional candidates. The congressional candidate that has the most money wins 90% of the time. So if you just target all that money, literally over a billion dollars right now and the GOP war chest, particularly with Trump's MAGA Inc. You pump all that money in the 9, 10, 11 of the most winnable 21 toss ups. We got this. I mean, there's no way, again, statistically. It's very interesting because you've got the statistic of the candidate, the congressional candidate spends the most amount of money wins 90% of the time, but the party in power loses seats 90% of the time. So there is a tension there that we're going to have to see how it gets worked out. But given that redistricting now has made most seats a lock and has really just has given

16:38us the lowest amount of toss up seats ever. I don't know if that passed as precedent anymore. Now in terms of the party in power losing seats, all of that said we have got to talk about what just happened in freaking misery. I'm before I even get into what I'm sure you guys have heard what happened. If not, I'll let you in on it. And don't worry. I'm going to show you exactly why. But that said, especially in light of what Indiana just did and screwing us over with voting against their map, the Indiana Senate Republicans. Seven of the eight, of course, have been voted out of out of their own state legislature since. But I will never understand Midwest Republicans. I'm sorry, I will never understand you guys. I love you. I think you know some of the nicest people I've ever met in my life.

17:39But we're just going to have to call the Midwest the land of beef and rhinos. It's the land of cows and rhinos. I mean, if ever there were a party, addicted to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it is Midwestern Republicans. If you haven't heard the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously, I want to underscore that. I want to underline that unanimously blocked the state's GOP drawn congressional map from being used in the November midterms, even though the primaries have already been held. They already have candidates. They already have primaries. They already have the mail and ballots ready to go. The map is a done deal. Let's go. The state legislature, which has the sole plenary authority over elections in district drawing overwhelmingly approved it months ago. I thought it was last year, a fire call in 2025.

18:42It's a seven to one GOP redistricted map designed to add a mega friendly seat and dismantle the ridiculous Kansas City gerrymandered a Democrat seat that's kept a Democrat in there for years. That's gone. It passed the Missouri House 90 to 65. It was signed by the governor. Again, I think it was last year of fire, of course, certainly months ago. And literally just weeks before the midterm, after the primaries, the Missouri Supreme Court has the arrogance to think it could just step in and say, no, no, by judicial fiat, no. Like keep in mind, I know it's good to upset you. And it should keep in mind, this is a Republican dominated state Supreme Court. No, they don't have, they don't have, they're not partisan themselves, but they've been appointed

19:44by Republican, or this Republican dominated state, Missouri. This Republican dominated state Supreme Court just voted unanimously to toss that map into the trash. So basically what happened, if you don't know the background to this, is that a far left group called people not politicians, they should just call themselves what they are, you know, commies without a conscience or something like that. They're not people with not politicians. They're left wing lunatics. They gathered more than 300,000 signatures to force a statewide vote on the Trump back map, even although it had already been signed into law. And the Missouri Secretary of State, Denny Hoskins, the court claims, wrongly rejected that

20:44citizen referendum campaign against the map. And so the state Supreme Court said that the map can't go into effect until you have that referendum vote. Now, I mean, make no mistake. Of course, the referendum will pass. Missouri is a deep red state, but it would be obviously too late for the midter. In fact, it would appear on the November 3rd ballot, even though the primaries have already been held for the new map. I mean, if ever there were an example of how these courts have just, in a sense, sort of outlived their purpose, it's this, I'm not saying we don't need courts obviously, but this is, this is really nothing more than a bunch of judicial narcissists who've completely lost perspective of reality, if anything, if anything, they could have ruled, look, you have to have this referendum because we have the numbers. But obviously because already the campaigns underway, the primaries are done, it was signed

21:50into law. You're going to have to wait till 2028 to vote on it. That I could see, but this ruling is insane. So yes, yes, it looks like the Supreme Court is going to have to once again get involved with one of these rogue state Supreme courts, Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, has already filed an emergency stay at the state Supreme Court. That's what she has to do. That's the required first step before rushing an appeal to the US Supreme Court after, of course, Missouri's that same high court, Missouri's high court, toss the congressional map, Hanaway along with pretty much every other Republican in Missouri state legislatures calling this ruling absolutely insane. It's unprecedented. No American court has ever thrown out a congressional map after it was signed into law and after

22:50primaries were already held under it. Missouri's August primary used the new map and candidates already won their nominations. We are in the very thick of the election right now. And of course, she just, she warned it's just absolutely unprecedented decision that's plunged the state into a full fledged constitutional crisis. It threatens to completely disenfranchise every Missouri voter by forcing a switch back to the old map from November to what we need new primaries now just weeks before the election. What about the previous, what about the people who voted for this particular candidate or that particular, what about those, those campaign? So obviously the Supreme Court is going to have to once again step in and fix the mess of these lower court. Now I think we've got this. I think the Supreme Court is going to overturn this. There is precedent for that. It's known as the Purcell principle. It's from Purcell versus Gonzales.

23:51It's from back in 2006. And it's a very simple practical ruling. It holds that courts can't change election rules to close an election because it risks confusing voters disenfranchising both voters and candidates who'd already been campaigning and spending money for months prior to the ruling. And then it would just disrupt the very administration and flow of the election. Not to mention it's, you know, it protects against, it protects against the courts interfering in our elections, partisan lay. Missouri already ran its August primary under the seven to one GOP map. So switching back to the old 2022 lines for November would create exactly the kind of last minute judicial disruption that Purcell ruled against voters, choose nominees under one map and changing it now would obviously disenfranchise or confuse them.

24:53So this timing problem gives the US Supreme Court strong legal grounds to step in and block the Missouri Supreme Court's ruling effectively reinstating the seven to one map for the general election on Purcell grounds. But that said, I mean, these state Supreme courts are just, you know, forgive my rant, but they're just out of control. I reminded me of the Colorado, the factless, pathetic Colorado state Supreme Court was at a four to three ruling where, where a back in 2024, they had the gall to remove Trump's name from the ballot because they claimed he committed a crime that he didn't commit that no, no court had ever convict him up, convicted him of insurrection. I mean, it was a patently unconstitutional rule. It was blatant judicial election interference. Courts don't get to decide who gets on the ballot provided like the New Mexico, so provided

25:54the party or the candy meets all the deadline specified by law, by their own laws ironically. This is a Democrat law, in the case of the New Mexico. But I think this is all for naught. I think the Supreme Court is going to rule in favor of the new map. I think they'll see through the shenanigans of this left wing referendum and restore the new Missouri map for November. And so then that raises the question, what are we seeing in terms of these competitive races? We mentioned there's about 21 of them, at least as far as Cook political report is concerned. Are there any trends that suggest what the final outcome will indeed be in November? That is exactly what we're about to find out. But first gang, if you are just joining us or super chats are up, so feel free to send in your comments, your questions, it'll be my honor, my glory to answer them right here on this slide. So I still have Erdogan resonating through my mind here. Also, you know, if you love books like my new Civ calls in book, if you love books and

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30:09know, you look at those those propaganda polls. I want you to remember what you're about to hear because we're going to forget the polls and we're going to think simply about math. Okay, nice objective, factual numerators. The Democrats need to net four seats to get control of the Senate. Right now the Democrats have 47 seats. They would have to knock off four Republicans to get the majority at 51. And if it's at 50, 50 if they get three seats, we add the majority with vice president JD Vance is the tie breaking vote. Here's the fundamental math problem. 20 of the 22 GOP seats, 20 of the 22 GOP seats that are up are in states, Trump won by double digits.

31:11Now again, we can use a little past as precedent here. Historically, it is virtually unheard of for a state to vote for a presidential candidate by double digits. Only to then turn around and vote for the other party in the Senate contest two years later. Just simply doesn't happen. You do have some ticket splitting, but that's only within single digit victories. Like what we saw for example in Arizona or what we saw in Michigan or Wisconsin. You will see some split tickets in a particular election, but we have never seen or I should say rarely and I'm talking even more rare than winning midterms when you're in power. A state vote for their presidential candidate by double digits and then vote for the other party in the Senate two years later. Pigs fly before that happens.

32:11So what that means is that the Democrats really in the end only have two viable targets and they turn out to be Maine where Susan Collins is an incredibly frustratingly persistent Republican in a blue state. And North Carolina where the repulsive rhino, Tom Tillis is mercifully retiring because he was about to get Liz Cheney in his own primary. So he's a coward. So he ran away. He MTG'd. So forget all the nonsense you're hearing about, you know, Telecrepo in Texas. Forget it. It's not going to happen. Forget all. We're in the hard way, right? Back in November 2025. We learned the hard way in New Jersey and Virginia that voter registration advantages are an absolute bitch. You can you can you can look at all the momentum we were getting with the mail in ballots,

33:12you know, with with the Republican candidate. Well, primarily obviously in New Jersey, not so much Virginia, but you could look at all of that advantage that was going on and then all of a sudden Democrats by the mass came in and started voting on election day. And that's just because there are more Democrats and Republicans in Jersey and Virginia. There's just no way around that. So the voter registration is a bit voted. That's why we're about to look at Seth Keshall's analysis. That's why he uses voter registration data as his basis for forecasting elections. Not polls because voter registration data is pure math if you could get out the vote. And you know, you don't have to get out the vote a lot. If you have these double digit voter registration leads that all of like Texas and Ohio and Alaska and Iowa have Alaska even with their stupid.

34:16They're up ranked choice voting still. You just don't have to worry about it. So just forget it. If past is precedent, Democrats aren't winning any of those seats. The most the Democrats can hope for is to pick up of two seats, Maine and North Carolina. Meanwhile at the same time, they're finding themselves having to defend three of their own seats that they should have been safe. They should because of incompetency in particular Michigan because they haven't elected a Republican Senator since 1994 since Spencer Abraham and and same with New Hampshire. All three of those states now they're fighting for their lives. They're going to require a lot of money. They're going to require a lot of resources just to defend those seats that Republican C is viable pickups, especially Michigan and New Hampshire. And that's going to deplete the other races. So at this point, I see North Carolina and Roy Cooper there as really the only viable

35:18pick up for the Democrats. I just think Susan Collins is too strong of a candidate to strong of an incumbent. She brings back too much pork to Maine. I don't think they're going to want to get rid of her for some left wing creep. And I see microaggers and microaggers in Michigan, Sanu, in New Hampshire as having a real bona fide chance of two pickups for Republicans. They may actually end up gaining there, therefore a seat in the Senate. They lose one, but pick up two. Pretty impressive. But in the Senate, as we stand, the Senate is gone for the Democrat. Don't even give it a second thought. Again, if anything changes, I'll let you know. But like I said, pigs are going to have to be flying before and it's just it's it's not remotely in the math for them and Democrats themselves are admitting that. Now as far as the House is concerned, our good friend election analyst Seth Caschel, he

36:19has a very good breakdown of what he's looking at starting now in the beginning of September moving into November 3rd. Remember Seth is one of the best election forecasters out there's been on the show a number of time. I'm very excited to see he's being touted a lot of late by Newt Gingrich. Newt found his work and he was very impressed withcess uncanny ability to accurately forecast elections based on voter registration trends rather than on polls. Again, really based on math as opposed to just these incredibly moving dynamic, well half the time, propagandistic tools. You could subscribe to his sub stack at Captain Kay's Corner. I'm a subscriber. I love it. You get a lot of our I know a lot of you guys out there are our subscribers. Seth's core framework for the midterms is very simple. There are two races. Okay. Very simple. Again, one of the things is when you're getting start getting nervous with all the polling

37:22out there with all the Fox News crap that you're seeing. Gosh, talking about Fox News, Maria and all the I don't know what's going on with that organization. Talk about a media outlet that continues to just shoot itself in the foot regardless. I'm not going to get on my another rant, but there are two types of races out there that Seth points out this again, this is these are your fixed points to keep you sane. There are races that have already been decided. There's no way around. Okay. Then voter registration is a bitch. There's nothing you can do when Republicans outnumber Democrats, two to one Democrat candidate ain't winning. It's just that simple, especially the lot of money is being poured in that vice versa. If it's like in Baltimore, right? I remember being in bold. I remember my first time I voted in Baltimore 1996. I voted for Pap Buchanan in the Republican primary 1996. I went to Innit Pratt Library to go and vote.

38:29They asked for my name. I was back in 96 and I just remember they asked for my name. I gave my name and she got the lady sitting at the table. It was this big, huge three ring binder of pages. It looked like a phone book page. She flipping through. She gets the tease. She said, I don't see your name. I said, no, I'm Steve Tervy. I'm sorry, there's no Tervy. I take out my card and my voter ID and I showed her and I kid you not. This lady went, oh, you're a Republican. She reached over and she took out this little tin can, this three by five tin can, opened it up and fiddled through the three by five cards. She said, oh, here you are. That's when I realized, wow, why am I even here? I be voter registration's a bitch. There's no way around it.

39:29This makes sense. You could throw out a lot of the polls when it comes to 90% of these races. There are races that are already decided. There are races that have Republicans with that big mass of three ring binder voter registration, Democrats in that little tin can, right? And there are races that are genuinely competitive and can be won by either side. So that's what Cook has at about 21. In the decided category, Keshall pointed seats like Georgia's 11th district, that'll go Republican 100%. Certainly, you don't have to worry about it. Massachusetts 4th district. It's going to go Democrat 100% certainly, no way around it, right? Any Baltimore district, 100% Democrat, no way around it. And he's been writing about these safe seats now for really most of the year. There's no mystery there.

40:30The competitive categories where the real analysis lives, races like Arizona's first congressional district, Virginia's second congressional district, which Seth expects to come really down to a photo finish in the end. Like I said earlier, there's really only about 21, 22 races or so that are true toss-ups right now. And for these races, Seth is saying that he's going to have much greater granular detail right down to which specific demographics and which regions of the district will swing the decisive votes. So specifically, he references Pennsylvania Republican Scott Perry's defensive Pennsylvania 10. That's a perfect example of a race where that district level demographic modeling is going to matter enormously. And that Pennsylvania piece is actually critical for understanding the house majority

41:31fight overall. So he's going to find some races that appear to be barometers, right? Like I'm arguing this new Mexico house flip is a is a as a harbinger of what appears to be coming here. Democrats are in disarray. Republicans are ready to rock here. Pennsylvania, and this is the key. And this is how we're going to flesh out what's happening over the next couple of months. Pennsylvania starts sending out mail-in ballots within the next two weeks. Oh, by the way, fun fact. Here's another harbinger. You ready? The very first mail-in ballot just got sent out. The very first mail-in ballot for the midterms just got sent out. I think as of yesterday, I forget when it's within the last 24, 48 hours. In the state of Florida, and it went to a Republican voter. So we're looking at harbingers right now, right? Or potential harbingers.

42:32So Pennsylvania starts sending out mail-in ballots within the next two weeks. Unfortunately, Florida isn't a harbinger. Florida went solid red in 2018, even when the rest of the country went blue. So unfortunately, we can't use that. But we can use Pennsylvania as some kind of bell weather for the houses a whole. Once those ballots go out, we're going to start getting real data on how three absolutely critical Republican held seats will break. You might want to write these down because we're going to be talking about them for the next two months. Pennsylvania 7, Pennsylvania 8, Pennsylvania 10. Again, these are bellweathers. These are districts that are pretty evenly matched as it were in terms of registration and Republican Democrat. And we're going to get a sense of where the electorate is going with Pennsylvania 7,

43:328, and 10. These are the three seats that Seth is calling critical for Republican defense of the House majority, meaning if the GOP can hold that trio and we'll know that based on the trends that we're seeing with the mail-in ballots, their path to keeping the house gets dramatically easier. So what that means is that we're going to know more over the next few weeks based on mail-in ballot return results targeting very specific districts, these swing districts. And we'll know more then on how well the Republicans are doing overall. We'll treat those districts. Again, it's an analysis point, but we'll treat those districts as bellweathers, as barbingers for what's happening in the midterms as a whole. Seth also draws a really interesting lesson from 2024 and he explains that as that election

44:33season rolled on, it became more and more obvious that President Trump was just going to absolutely crush it. And it was largely because Trump's campaign successfully pushed early and mail-in voting. It's very important early and mail-in voting is very important because it built Republican advantages in states like Arizona and North Carolina long before election day. And it left Kamala Harris without the firewall that she needed in Pennsylvania. We knew it. I mean, we knew it ahead of time if you're on this channel and if not, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button. But if you were with us, you know, we said Trump's got Pennsylvania. And if he's got Pennsylvania's got Michigan and Wisconsin, there's what he doesn't even need Michigan and Wisconsin. He's already got his 270. But where Pennsylvania goes, Michigan, Wisconsin tend to go and unfortunately, don't track their mail-in ballots by party. Where's Pennsylvania does? So we have real strong data in Pennsylvania as our bellweather in terms of those three

45:39or four districts, as our bellweather for the country as a whole. So Seth is going to be applying the same data driven evolving as it was the mail-in ballots come in approached 2026 watching the mail-in ballot data as it rolls in state by state, rather than locking in predictions too early based on polling that's been so ridiculously inaccurate of late and only getting worse. It's just been horrific. So that's how we're going to do it here on this channel. We're going to go into this midterm countdown following SES analysis in particular and others. You know, we try to draw in a number of data analysts and see what we can find as the most accurate picture of what to expect in 2026. Again, I love Seth. Not only was he one of the most accurate forecasters in 2024, as Newt Gingrich, who won, who's himself a veteran of winning elections like in 1994.

46:41But he also, I just love his methodology because he doesn't rely on all this ridiculous up and down polling that shows Tala Crepo beating Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton is already won three landslide statewide races this Texas attorney general. He will easily win the US Senate. And there is no universe where Michigan is competitive from Michigan that hasn't voted for a Democrat or a Republican center since 1994. That's actually competitive. Mike Rogers may win there, but the Republican is getting slaughtered and Texas, there's no world where it can because Texas always votes to the right of Michigan. I mean, this isn't hard. Again, voter registration is a bitch. And voter registration doesn't appear in polls. So we're going to keep our eyes very much fixed on the mail-in ballot data as it comes in. We know where the GOB has to be in relation to Democrats with past elections is our standard measure. And we'll have a very good sense, I believe, of how many of these toss-up seats will be

47:42winning going into November. That's the best. I think most accurate way of gauging precisely where we are in these midterms. So make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button for daily updates on the state of play in these toss-up seats. And it'll be an honor and a privilege to fight and charge into November together. All right, over to you. Our super chats are still up to fire away with any questions or comments you have. I'll be more than happy to answer them right here on this livestream. Also, hey, happy September summer is officially, I believe, behind us, right? And before we charge in the fall, I want you to ask yourself seriously a very honest question. What did the money sitting in your bank account actually earn this summer? Right? Go ahead and check. You may not like it. For most Americans, it's probably about 1%. While groceries, gas, insurance, they all kept climbing, which means every month your

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49:45So next Tuesday, September 8th, 8 PM Eastern 5 PM Pacific, my good friend Jay is hosting a free live masterclass. And he's going to buy a real tax lien live right in front of you on the call. Start to finish nothing edited. He's going to show you exactly how to do it. Nothing hidden. We're heading into the final stretch of the year. The holidays are coming. Prices aren't coming down and the folks with everything parked on Wall Street are bracing for whatever the market decides to do next. No market timing, no tenants, no rehabs, no leverage, just a couple of spare hours a week. That's it. This happens once live in real time Tuesday, September 8th. There's no replay of what that of that live purchase when it's done. It's done. And I don't know when Jay is going to do this again. So go to turleyclass.com. Again, this is your year gang. Go to turleyclass.com to lock in your spot. That's turleyclass.com door just text, turley at 72,000 that's 7200 or even easier just

50:52scan that really cool QR code on the screen. Tap send and you're in again next Tuesday September 8th, 8 PM Eastern 5 PM Pacific, register now at turleyclass.com text, turley to 72,000 or scan the QR code to save. Your spot. All right, Josh, what do we got? What do we got? Johnny the WizKid, big, big paragraph. I have a Muslim friend and we have some tips. I would assume so over various things. I'm hoping you can clear up. She believes we're bombing Iranian citizens instead of terrorists. She believes threats are free speech because they didn't do anything. Even Kamenis she believes they hate us because they didn't even Kamenis. She believes they hate us because we're taking their oil. She doesn't know Trump's deeper plan on how this is more than just oil, the death of America chance didn't post threats and I don't know what she expects that we do nothing, makes

51:56no sense. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be able to clear up anything, Johnny. I mean, we all have what are called plausibility structures. Our standards of evaluation that enable us to make sense of things. Now, a democratic republic is based on the fact that we can share Kamen plausibility standards but that generally comes from a common religious tradition because religion provides the very foundation. It's technically known as the sacred for that which is considered absolute and unquestionable. Hey, Josh, keep that up there so I can, yeah, there so I can reference it. Awesome. So anyway, in many ways over the last few decades we've lost it, I think it's coming back. That's part of what I argue in Siv Khazam that we're seeing a return of religion and religious renewal of the world's never seen before actually. Scholars are talking about that, particularly sociologists are talking about that.

52:59So it is coming back. And in the meantime, you just may have different plausibility structures. So I tend to try to find, I like the way you kind of ended it. I try to find ways of that kind of transcend the plausibility structures, the specificity, the plausibility structures. So here's something I would say, don't you think it would have been more prudent to have chanted death to America after you got the nuclear weapon? You know, just throw it in your court. Let's just be, I mean, let's just be practical. Let's just be rational. Everything you say may be right, but I mean, just think practically speaking, okay? We got nukes. They don't. They're chanting death to America, death to Israel, blah, blah, blah. You're sitting there going and then they're trying to develop a nuclear weapon and you're

54:00like, hell no. And you have the capacity to make sure they won't ever get it. You can blow them to smithereens. They're never going to get it. Again, whether it's right or wrong, they're relevant. Don't you think it would have been better to chant death to America before the nukes? Now that, of course, they can't because part of the legitimacy of that regime was to present itself as God's ordained. And this is what she's not telling you. They presented themselves as God's ordained instrument. What is it? The 11th mom's ordained instrument to come in in his place and push back against and even ultimately defeat the anti well, the anti they would call them the anti Messiah. I guess because they do believe Jesus is the Messiah. But this evil satanic force of the West. And then whatever they have to do to push back and defeat it, they will do.

55:03And part of that ended up becoming getting hold of the nukes. So death to America was part of their legitimacy, chance. That was literally their political platform. And I'm sorry. I would just simply say to her, I'm sorry. You know, you better be able to fight back if you're going to do that. If you think if you're claiming, if you're claimed to legitimacy, that your God's instrument to defeat the great Satan, you better be able to show it. And obviously they can't. And everything she's saying, it sounds to me as an admission that that claim to legitimacy was all a lie. That's what it sounds to me that what she's ultimately saying. That claim to legitimacy is a total and complete lie. They were not God's ordained instrument to destroy the great Satan. America is kicking their ass. I mean, embarrassingly so for all the world to see.

56:07And so all the others ones, you know, it's like they're bombing citizens instead of terrorists. So she's admitting there are terrorists there. That's at least a step. But all of that is just inconsequential to me. In the end, there'd be no bombings if they weren't chanting death to America and trying to get a nuke. It's just that simple. In human condition, good to hear from you. Why is Spamberg not held accountable for taking down the last Confederate statues in Virginia last week? Didn't Trump make it a violation to analyze or destroy any historical statue or is removal just a loophole? Thank yeah, it's a good question. I would assume removal is a loophole. I thought it was federal property, federal statues. I don't think this is federal. I think it's a state monument. Look, there's no stopping this right now. Cultural Marxist states are going to go cultural Marxist.

57:08They are going to fulfill their job descriptions. It's one of the reason why you're seeing this massive left UG migration crisis as it were, not crisis, obviously. But it's one of the reasons why we're winning post 2030 census is just red states are places where people are fleeing. It was COVID in 2020 and now it's cultural Marxism. They've had it. They don't want this woke nonsense at all. So they're leaving California, they're leaving Minnesota, they're leaving Jersey, they're leaving Virginia and Virginia's losing population by leaps and bounds. Trump does his job rightly. Novo can, nova can, Northern Virginia can see a massive plunge in their population because the administrative state and deep state have been so gutted. And then that's where all the blue voting is really concentrated in as well as enrichment and so on. So, no, she's a scum.

58:11She's just going to, she's going to fulfill the job description of socialist scum and she's going to reinvent history in accordance with this new ethno nationalist left BLM and LaRaza and the third worldism that's animating the left today. Ironically, as soon as they get real power they'll get rid of her real quick, real fast. So she's, she's a dead woman walking in one way or the other. So it's upsetting, it's terrible. But right now it seems to me that the Trump administration is very much focused on mass deportations, particularly out of blue states. We've been seeing it with New York and Operation Rotten Apple. Saw it in Minneapolis. It's happening at record numbers under Tom Homan. I'm glad he replaced Christy Nome. She was, she was the head of the deportation operation. Now it's Tom Homan. Of course, now it's Mark Wayne Mullin at DHS.

59:14But he's doing it much better. She liked the cameras. She thought it was a boost to the base. Homan thinks, yeah, it's a boost to the base, but it's also a boost to the lunatics as well. So, and it can end up causing people who are squeamish about it to side with the lunatics. So he goes very quiet, very inconspicuous, does the job before any of the lunatics can show up, deports all, I mean, we're talking 50,000 a month. And so the ideas get rid of, as drain the blue states of their population, both in terms of conservatives leaving and going and bolstering red states and then getting rid of their illegal population, getting rid of the illegal populations, whatever remains in red states, because we've seen a lot in Texas, obviously. And then secure the new map of 2030, where red states get 14 to 16 new electoral votes

1:00:19and seats in Congress. The blue states lose those. And then we forever box them out of both congressional power and federal or executive power because of the electoral college. That's what he's going for. And if you're going to have some left wing lunatics in the process, take down some Confederate statues in their own blue states, Trump isn't going to take you on with that. He's defunding, it looks like he's going to be removing the tax exempt status of universities that don't comply. It's about time, I think, that don't comply with the anti-discrimination laws, the reverse anti-discrimination. And it's about time, because I think universities are the true sleeper cells. So he's very locked in on what he's doing here. And I just think, you know, yes, unfortunately, their days are over, but unfortunately, it

1:01:22just comes down to a question of how much, how much damage do they inflict in the meantime? Raktor, I got to Steve Anzu, I thought of all the BS of Democrats are going to win in November. And Red Eagle must be doing shrooms saying the hob goblin is going to win in Arizona. I live here. And the demo rat plantation is hated in most America, Picani, good. So believe the USAID shutdown DNC broke is signaling a red tsunami. Your thoughts, well, I love, again, I love your optimism. I know, again, I don't know if there's going to be a red tsunami. I don't know. It's just where I would temper you on that is that we're dealing with, it seems like it seems to me an unavoidable refractory period. And a refractory period is after a party wins a presidential election, massive presidential election, like we did in 2024, a very, a, a, a significant, a minority, but it's portion

1:02:34of its voters go into apathy. It just happens. It's just the nature of the beast. You can yell and scream against it all you want, but they, they, they, they hit into apathy, they won the White House and they don't care about any two-not-a-politics. They do. And they don't, they don't vote in the midterms. They don't show up. Whereas the other party, the party that laws has been frothing at the bit to get to the midterms to get their revenge. So you almost always see whatever party has been locked out of power from the White House. They will always be a plus party. So in this case, it would be Democrat at least plus three plus four plus five. Now the fact that Harvard Harris is seeing a Republican plus two is astonishing. So we're going to keep it our eye on that. We'll have a few more polls before November from Harvard Harris to gauge that. But that's pretty astonishing. If it's Republican plus two, you got it. You got your, your red tsunami. It's going to happen. Just likely it's going to be a Democrat plus two plus three, which is not enough for

1:03:39them to take the house. It will not be a red tsunami, but it's not going to be enough Democrat votes to get them past two, 18. Certainly not get the Senate in that case. Yeah, I'm definitely keeping an eye on Mandy Biggs. He's down about five. Again, it's the polling. It's the polling accurate. We have to see. Just ready go. Jack is hedging his bets. He's been trying to be very, very. He saw a huge red wave in 2022, as all pollsters did in fairness, that just didn't happen. And we found out because of the low to no prop voters that didn't show up. So I think he's just being more careful right now. Things will tighten up, the polls will tighten up, and then the predictions will tighten up as we get closer to November. But I'm with you. I think Katie Hobbes has to go. Brian, my dear friend, I heard yesterday that the Trump administration appealed the

1:04:41rogue judge blocking the post office rule at Scotus. Haven't mail in balance begun going out already. Is so even a national emergency order help. Yeah, I think it will help for. It's a great question. Yes, they started the we have one in your backyard in Florida started to go out to Republicans, lovely. But no, I think so. I think the national emergency could could do it. Again, we'll have to see over the next couple of weeks. It's still early. So there are some states, a couple of state handfuls states are sending it out in the next couple of weeks, Pennsylvania, your old stomping grounds being one of them. But it is still early. We still have a few weeks to go. And so yeah, I'm watching to baited breath and waiting to see what Trump's going to do. In terms of what is going to take matters in his own hands. Or whether, whether Supreme Court's going to step in or whether Trump thinks it's strong

1:05:43enough. Again, he's got data we simply don't have. That's what we always have to remember. And no one wants this election more secure than Trump. Rita, why are the Senate runners so against the say back? Are they really questionable? Are there really questionable things in there that are we're not aware of? And is there any way to change the Senate? Run as minds about it? Should we just forget it? Great. All right, great question, Rita. Well, I mean, I'll just be straight with you. Right? Again, it's the stockdale principle. We have to be honest with the dire nature of what we're dealing with. The vast majority of Republican senators are not MAGA. They hate MAGA. They despise MAGA. They hate you. They hate Trump. There's just no way around that. And the MAGA movement is an executive movement. It is an article two movement. It is a presidential movement because it is fundamentally about Trump.

1:06:46So all these break off Tucker, Alex Jonesy kind of, podcasters are just kind of living in a virtual reality, quite literally. They're trying to pretend that Trump betrayed America first. When America first is Trump, whether we like it or not, you could say that's dangerous. What I've seen the libertarian folk do that all the time. You're putting all your hopes in one man. It's no, I'm just describing what it is. Trump is the mythic figure that is saving our republic right now. And then there is an entire Republican party emerging around him with his endorsements. And the last ones who are going to get incorporated in this remade Republican party, Trump and party is the Senate. They're the last ones because they're up for reelection. So the least. So how so go first, how so become much more MAGA as we're finding.

1:07:50It's already happening. We're getting rid of the riff rap that we're obstructing the agenda. And increasingly, we're getting rid of the riff rap that we're obstructing the agenda. We got rid of Bill Cassidy and Louisiana. Got rid of John Cornyn in Texas. We're just getting rid of those idiots. And we're putting in true strong MAGA Republicans in deep red states in the Senate. So until that process is complete, it's going to take a generation. It's going to take a while. The Senate is always going to be obstructionist. It's always. That's why we have to focus primarily on the White House and executive power in the meantime. So that's why I've said I think Trump should just declare a national emergency and be done with it. And again, challenge the courts to overturn it. He can turn around and appeal to 1983 Supreme Court precedent. Now, you can't overturn a national emergency. You don't get to overturn anymore than you can tell me whether we can go to war with Iran or not.

1:08:52Only Congress can do that. And then Congress needs two thirds vote. Good luck on getting that. So I just think until then, we're going to have to rely on good old fashioned arm twisting to get the Senate Republicans to cooperate. Because they hate MAGA, they don't think there's cheating. And some of them like Lee Simmerkowski rely on cheating to win with the rank choice voting, which is just a blatantly corrupt form of it. It enables a legitimate loser to win. So all of that said, I think, soon can twist a couple of more arms. I think Susan Collins said she's, she's, she's a girl. And that's pretty much it. That's all we needed was Susan Collins. Now we're at 50 and then you just have to attach it. The, the save act to reconciliation bill that only requires 50 votes plus the tie breaking vote from JD Vance.

1:09:59And, and that's where Susan Collins, by the way, has been waffling. She's like, oh, but that's against parliamentary rules and, and then the parliamentarian does come in and say, that's, you don't get to do that. But she's a not an elected bureaucrat and she should be fired. And John Thune can fire her. So that's a Trump wants hardball and we're just going to see if Thune can play it. MAGA 24-ever, Dr. Steve, since Trump, the Republicans have so much money and Elon, it's going to contribute even more. Whether it be a focus on getting conservative judges in district attorneys. Oh, that's a great question. I don't know. I have not come across any of that in, in this election. I think this election really is about holding as much as we get holding the Senate first and foremost because we should be able to and then trying to hold the House against precedent. I just think that, that's the priority. Just so that the president's agenda can continue to at least in some way, shape or form,

1:11:05get legislative support. It's just, it's a nightmare with the Senate being in such political paralysis as it is. But that's a very good question. I haven't caught up with that, to be honest with you. But when I'm seeing right now, it's primarily congressional. That's the emphasis where the money's going. Vils, Vyn, Jager, off topic. But could you play Gothic Jam sometime from your album, Solid Air Gloria, for way back in 98, saw you on the 700 Club video. Would be great back music for the end of your podcast. Well, there you go. Maybe we need to do that. Josh put a note there or maybe we need to do bringing Gothic Jam. But it's a good tune. It's a really good tune. It's an old bluegrass tune. I can't even remember the actual bluegrass tune in the jam to it. That's in the major key that I turned into a minor key and made it, found it sounded more like medieval music in a way.

1:12:06So that's where the term Gothic Jam comes from. Thanks, Phil. We'll see what we can do there. Texas, on the shock. Could you hear from you what did the polls look like in 2022? I remember that even the Dems were bracing themselves for Red Sinami. And then it turned out to be a ripet. That's exactly right. That's why again, we have to be very, very careful with the polling. So that's why I showed the precedent that Harvard Harris has. Harvard Harris tends to nail the polling pretty well. But that's why Seth Kachel doesn't even rely on polls at all. He looks at voter registration trends and he looks in mail-in ballot trends. So he's looking at real numbers. He's looking at real voters, real numbers, not some abstraction. 2022, the polls were off. 2024, the polls were off. You could be assured, 2026, the polls are off. So I ignore all of the anti-Trump polling out there. I ignore, oh, he's down in the 30s.

1:13:08He's the lowest. The MSNBC. They're just there to give MSNBC talking points. That's it. That's all they are. I ignore the Talarico polls, the Tala Frico polls completely. They're just there to give a money in the end to justify donors who are generally politically stupid to write them big, big checks. So it's a business. It's an industry. I ignore vast majority of it. But I do zero in on quantum, quantum insights. I do zero in on inside of manage. I do zero in on Atlas Intel, on Harvard Harris. Those are historically very accurate polls. Willow to happy Labor Day. That's true. A happy Labor Day to everyone out there. How has information in the Clancy trial been allowed to leak from the jury even if it may not be factual? Isn't that illegal or at least unethical? Thank you, Will. Oh, I think so.

1:14:10I think so. I mean, this whole this whole Clancy trial has just been an absolute, I mean, yes. An answer to your question is yes. And I don't know what's going on. I think the, I think the, my name'sake Jonathan Terrell. I think the jury should have been sequestered. They shouldn't have been subject to all the, just be blunt, all the shit online. And on all the MSNBC nonsense that you're seeing here. But, you know, I have to tell you, I think this is probably the most devastating blow to feminism that we have ever seen since feminism began. If, if Amber heard blew apart me too, if Amber heard right during the Johnny Depp trials, if she killed the me too movement, then I think Clancy is killing feminism.

1:15:14Clancy is killing because she's done more, I mean, I hate, no, no, I'm not going to say, I don't want to be crude here. She's a, she's a more murder and more ways than one. She has, she has killed feminism. And what I mean by that is, look, we'll go with you. And again, this is what's killing wokeness in general, right? But what we saw with Amber heard is, we'll go with you to the extent that you want to clean, clean up the creeps. If there are these Harvey Weinstein's out there and so, and, and who take advantage of you, look, I got a daughter, you know, I've got a, I don't want that to happen to them. I don't want that to happen to the women that I love in my life. And so I'm with you. That's what you want to do. If you want to clean up this nonsense, I'm with you 100%. But me to quickly turned into a two tier double standard, a double standard legal system, where now we can, we can smear men for the mere sport of it.

1:16:24Now, now we get to abuse men. You abused us. And I still remember, what was that actress's name? Alyssa Milano, notice we don't hear from her anymore. She was one of the biggest me to advocates out there. And when she was asked about Brett Kavanaugh, yeah, but you do understand, I mean, what if it turns out that Ford's accusations are lies? You will have destroyed a man's entire career. And Alyssa Milano didn't bat an eye. And she said, it's worth it. Even if innocent people have to be destroyed, it's worth it to rectify all of the abuse that we women have experienced over the centuries. So the moment the world men in particular, but I think even women, so, oh, so this is turning into literally, you know, a blood feud. This is turning into pure raw, you know,

1:17:33gender cleansing as it were. They were done with it. They were done with it. And I think we're seeing the same thing here with the Clancy trial. I think we're seeing, we're seeing feminism in general. It's not even the me too movement. It's women, women, standing with women, postpartial, all this nonsense that she's not to mind. She hasn't even been diagnosed with this stuff, like technically diagnosed with all depression and the life by a psychologist. I think men are recognizing this is turned into feminism is turned into the very same kind of, you know, double standard two-tier legal system that we want nothing to do with. And so men are going to push back against this, like you have never seen before. So I don't know what the, I don't know what the outcome will be. I understand we have one person on that jury who is standing in sanity and the other 11 who've gone nuts and bought into this two-tier system where women are allowed

1:18:41to commit crimes men are not allowed to commit. And that's just we're not going to live in a society like that. Move yourronic, you think Scotus uphold a male law. Why is polling broken? All right. Yeah, I do. I do. Again, you know, we'll see. I mean, I'm reading the analysts here, but I think the, I think Scotus will uphold the standards that the federal government is placing on the use of their agency, the US Postal Service in state elections. Yes, state elections get to decide how they want to do their votes. If if if if California wants to bake corruption into the cake, they can do it at least now unless you have a save act or something like that that forces them to comply with national standards. But if they're going to use a federal agency to do it, the federal agency does that

1:19:45comply with corruption. So the federal agency says you have to hand over your voter registration data and we're going to cross reference it with our own citizenship based data and whatever doesn't match up, they're not getting a ballot in California says, well, we're not going to do that. I think I think the Supreme Court's going to say, well, then you're going to fall victim to the sanction that's entailed in that requirement. Polling is broken because it's left wing. In the end, it's left wing and it's expensive. So I would say ideology and cost. Polling is traditionally like a lot of you know, political political science departments and disciplines. It's left wing. And polling inordinately comes out of universities. You have you have the Quinnipiac polling, for example, from Connecticut University Quinnipiac. So I mean, they come out of universities. They're just left wing in general. They tend to and they tend to inordinately the the demographic that gets

1:20:54pulled is inordinately left wing because they tend to be more cosmopolitan, more urban, rather than rural. Rural voters are harder to get in touch of and they're not it's not there's not a density low-locative density for for where the rural voters are being all spread out. So just both the pollsters and the polling sample skew left. And then it's just if you want a really good poll, it costs a lot of money. It's a lot of work. And when you just when all you're looking for is a quick headline, a snap headline to just bring the talking heads in for an hour and and and meet your quota of advertising revenue. You're not going to you're not going to dump money like that. So that's why. Up shoot, how do I respond to conservatives telling me that I should cut my family from my life because they believe the media refuse to become like the left. Oh my thank

1:21:57you for that G. Boy G. Boy. Because what I would say in the end is I think they're confusing being right with relationships. I think they're confusing being right with relationships. So our lives have multiple levels of meaning. We have an upshed. I know you're a very spiritual man. So I know you appreciate it. Obviously, but I think we all in Aitley have a spiritual sense that we either feed and exercise or we kind of starve. Right. We all have a relational dimension to our lives. Again, that we either feed or starve. We have physical dimensions to our lives that we either you're taking good care of ourselves or we're not taking very good care of

1:22:58ourselves. We have professional dimensions of our life. And we have financial dimensions to our life. And by the way, in that spiritual, that's where I tend to put the aesthetic as well. So art and I see you're from Europe, so the beautiful art museums, the cathedrals, the incredible, comparable music traditions and so the literature tradition, so music, literature, art, architecture, poetry, you name it. I would see as all an extension of the spiritual side of things made, made physical for sure. But we all have different dimensions in our lives. And as part of that, those dimensions, there is lower ones. Those are the five basic, but then there are lower ones. Like, once you know, you're spiritually mature and relationally mature, you have a family and you're healthy physically taking good care of yourself and you've got a good job and you're investing in and you've got good finances. Okay,

1:24:01when now you can become a citizen of the police. So now you have your political dimension of life. And I think everybody should have a political dimension. Most people do, they're just oftentimes not a very good one, not a very thought through one regardless. It's cool. But then you have a political dimension. You can keep going, you know, but I think those sex are pretty pretty much a very full healthy human life. What I would say is I think your friends are confusing the political with the relational. They're different dimensions. Now oftentimes they can overlap. My wife is very conservative. I couldn't even imagine marrying someone who wasn't conservative and living one. And I mean, we love politics. We talk politics all the time in culture and religion and you name it. I couldn't imagine you know, being married to an atheist or something like that.

1:25:09I think that the dimensions of a flourishing human do have priority. So, so I think our relationship with God is first and foremost. That's spiritual dimension. And then our relationship to our loved ones love God, love neighbor, the relational dimensions next. Then I would say probably physical. You know, don't burn yourself. If you put professional first and you can you can physically burn yourself out. But so I'm taking care of your body would be third. And then fourth would be professional finding a vocation where you can flourish in terms of your own unique gifts and talents and then take the money that you're you're getting from that and and pour it into some investments and growing your money, your financial and then becoming a member of the poly. So if you if you lay it out in terms of priority, notice politics is at the bottom.

1:26:13As I'm sure most everybody on this channel would say amen to how how with politics, right? We want politics to be the least intrusive thing in our lives. We want to just live our lives and flourish as humans. So politics is about where as relationship it's at near the top. Actually, if you think spirituality, spirituality is a relationship, right? All of these are relationships in their own sense. But the relationship to family and loved ones is on the top. Who do you want around your deathbed? Who do you want your last hours? The mayor of your city? Somebody from the political realm or do you want your children? You want your loved ones? Who do you want? So I am absolutely committed. So I preach to myself on this. I have I made a very concerted decision a number of years ago that I would never let politics come

1:27:15in the way of me and my loved ones. I never argue politics with family. Never. Now I purposely don't. And and what helps is, and I'll wrap it up here with this, what helps is so if you come across somebody of a left wing persuasion in your family or just a good or a dear friend that you don't want to lose and things like that. If you can learn to hear them, that is discuss it with them from their vantage point, they will love you for that. Because they're probably they probably know you and they probably know you're not coming from that vantage point. So if you do so for me, it's populism. I always come from a populist perspective because populism is about left versus rights about people versus permanent political class. And so like if somebody is talking about

1:28:16Mam Donny with me and they're like, yeah, no, I kind of think he's pretty cool. You know what? I mean, it is real things are really unaffordable and both Republicans and Democrats haven't done anything for us. And I just think this guy's really cool. I can I can talk to that person. Now if you watch my videos, I slam Mam Donny all the time because to me, the bigger picture is not even people versus political class. It's patriots versus communists at this point. It's not left versus rights, patriots versus communists. So and by the way, Tucker appears to be going full communist strangely enough. I just from what I'm seeing of late. I don't know why I'm just adding that in there, but I just thought about him. Some of the comments he's been making of late. So so what I'll do is I'll set that aside. And I'll think I'll start to say talking like, yeah, you know, it's really interesting. I'm really into politics actually. And I found that analysts are saying today that the whole left right divide is collapsing. And it's really the people versus this

1:29:19establishment, this permanent political class. And you will see every leftist you talk to go, yeah, yeah, no, I know. And you know, and so that's why I really like Abdul, you know, what's his name? El Fayed, I'm right. I'm forgetful. I'm forgetting his name off the top of my head. But that's why I really like Mam Donny. That's why I really like Rashida to leave. You know, they're really sticking it to the establishment. It's okay. You can go with them on that. And you can say, and you know what, the establishment should be sticked. You're right. But and then I might even say, but you know, and I'm not trying to be, I'm not trying to be a jerk about this, but you should know that, um, that's the that's the attraction of Trump. It's not just the, shall we say, the left or the liberals that are feeling disenfranchised by the establishment. The right has as well. And then you could even say, and then there's just this interesting kind of like, have you seen what Tucker's been doing of play? Tucker's been having like a lot of like left wing people and and he's he's really interested in

1:30:26in this Michigan race, but actually from from the Democrat side, because he just thinks Trump sold out to the establishment rhinos when it comes to Iran. And you can have conversations that are peaceful and and rich and they owe and every once in a while dropped some pearls of, you know, but that's also why on the right they're going there and show them the right isn't as, as you know, as evil and Nazi like as they claim. But I'm when all said and done, I'll wrap it up, if you could be as I very much appreciate your question, when all said and done, I think they are, they are confusing two priorities in your human flourishing. You have your relational priority, which is right at the top and then you have your political priority and a political priority always takes a back seat to relationship always. You can be right or you can have a relationship

1:31:30and you just have to ask which one is God wants you to have in the end. Rebel contrast the GOP holding a midterm convention to trumpet its wins under Trump and MAGA, while the divided Democrats are trying to stay out of the spotlight. Is there genuinely an enthusiasm gap for November, there was, there was, it was very noticeable, but that's the summer and that's during the summer response bias where the Democrats are overwhelming, they are inordinately represented in the in the poll pools in the in the crosstabs. So yes, right now Republicans look like they're ready to go. Republicans want want to do this. They want to they want to win these midterms and they want to win them for Trump. They know they know Democrats are insane and they they don't want to see Democrats coming to power. Again, I think we're fine in the Senate and the question now is whether we can hold that house and with the enthusiasm gap tightening as we've

1:32:31seen just to double our to single digits, we've got a good chance. Texas on the shock, things like Missouri are annoying, but could we also take this as encouragement that they're so concerned about their chances? They feel they have to so chaos where reposal I love the way you're thinking. That's probably what's going on. Again, these are Republican appointed judges, but but for heaven's sakes, they might as well just be Democrats. And that's it's a problem with the law system as a whole or legal institutions are ridiculously left-wing. It's it's all the DEI, it's all the human resources department that started with Obama. So no, I'm with you. I think you could take it as a as a strange sort of confirmation that we're crushing it. Buck I scruff. You're not wrong about Midwest Republicans. I'm seeing a lot of

1:33:35Amy acted and Sherrod Brown support here in Ohio. Some people don't learn. Yeah, no, I'm with and they're not going to win. Don't worry about it. But I know I'm with you. It's just absurd, but they're also the left is the left is more animated than the right. But like I said, voter registration is a bitch. And there's just if you thought Virginia and New Jersey had an overwhelming partisan advantage on the left, just wait to you see, of course, the Ohio partisan advantage on the right. Your so it is seven. Why can't we just ban Syria as a Sharia law as a cult? Well, you know, so I mean Russia does not not Sharia law. They banned cults. Russia has no problem. They banned the Jehovah's Witnesses. We can't religious freedom. We can't ban it as a cult. But Trump has Trump has expressed his support of banning Sharia law as an

1:34:41expressly theocratic form of government that are constitution in terms of its explicitness rejects. Even although many would call our country a soft theocracy where our foreign policy is run by what what are technically known as Christian Zionists. Christian Zionism is a evangelical theology that sees Israel at the center of God's redemptive activities in the world. And so the being majority evangelical, although Catholics are are catching up. The United States's foreign policy has been inordinately pro-Israel largely because of Christian Zionists. That's a soft theocracy in that sense. That's theology guiding our foreign policy. Yes, I mean, there's some practical geopolitical elements to supporting Israel, but nevertheless, there is also theological elements for even I'm not a Christian Zionist, but that is what is very prominent today. So that's

1:35:47subtle, but an explicit form of religious rule like insharia law. That would be banned. That could easily be banned on the basis of the separation of powers. Roboguy, if the DSA didn't show up, we would have had more trouble. But they're the one thing jeopardizing Democrats. Chances will no doubt be they're undoing. Love your optimism, Roboguy. That's exact and that's awesome. That's exactly what we need to think. You're not alone. That is the thesis of James Carville. James Carville thinks that we are in the process of the Democrats were in the process of beating the Republicans, hands down as could be historic midterm. Like he was wrong just because of all the redistricting. There's just too many solid red districts now. Again, there's only about 21 toss up seats, which means the Democrats ceiling is in the mid-220s. So there's no more 1994's or 2010's

1:36:49or even 2018's at this point. But he believes DSA candidates have destroyed their chances. He said nobody's going to be voting for somebody who thinks that prisons are concentration camps and that we need to abolish ICE and defund the police. No one's going to open up our borders and defund completely defund Israel. No one's going there. Sorry. Except for the radical 20%. But the other 80% the Bill Maher, Maher's the John Federmans, the Van Joneses. I've been very surprised at Van Jones coming out on CNN and just saying, again, why am I forgetting his name? El Sayed, there it is. El Sayed, I knew it was somewhere in there. I do all Sayed is a radical. And he's a nut and he's very dangerous. So you're absolutely right. I think they may be there on doing. Sean Haney, the mask finally comes off like the Carlson is now endorsing radical Democrats.

1:37:54What is his mental challenge? Okay, don't leave the witness. I don't know. I don't know. I've never met Tucker. I know people who know Tucker, but I've never met Tucker. I've talked with some of those who know Tucker. And all I could say is I think the best assessment that I got is he's going through a bit of a spiritual crisis right now. And he believes that now this could be very much a very selfish career move where he's trying to. That's what I think Alex Jones is doing and others are doing. Again, I think I don't know. Don't know these people. I purposely don't know these people. I've had, I've been, I was well, I just say I purposely don't know precisely because I just think the podcast world there aren't a lot of convictions.

1:38:55I think there's just there's a lot of there's business models, but not a lot of convictions. And they're trying to get ahead of the curve of the post Trump mega world. And they think this is it. They think the post Trump mega world is uniting the populace left with the populace right. And my thing is good luck in that when your populace left is third worldest. So Tucker claims that he is a lover of Western civilization, but then he is increasingly siding with a political movement that sees Western civilization as the greatest evil in the planet. Right. So this is what I mean, this isn't about, this isn't about left and right uniting against the establishment, the people versus the establishment. That is populism. That is true. We have had and are going through a populist phase where left and right don't mean as much

1:39:58as people versus permanent political class. It's why the white working class that had always voted Democrat in every election since the 1980s and up defecting over to Trump. And that's how he was able to win states like Ohio and Iowa and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They voted Democrat in every single election, you know, well, Ohio voted Bush, but but also voted Obama twice. They defected because again, they weren't looking at him as a Republican or they were they were seeing him as their man, a pro union man against the establishment pro working class against a an establishment that had abandoned the working class, a liberal globalist establishment. That's certainly operative today as well, but increasingly now with the rise of the DSA, it's not the people versus permanent political class. It's not left versus right. It's increasingly patriots versus communists. It's it's it's pro Americans versus post Americans and Thai Americans.

1:41:04And so I will see what kind of amalgamation he can try to construct, but at this point, these guys don't seem to think they don't seem to realize who who their their bedfellows are about to be. These are third worldists and third worldists start with the premise that Western civilization is the greatest evil on the planet. And you can't be pro America and be anti-West. There's no way around it. Politically incorrect forever, Dr. Steve, I'm in a dark abysmal place right now. My abundance of sarcastic humorous satire is all of a sudden dried up on me. I haven't triggered liberals in a couple of minutes. I think you may just have maybe we've got some of the chat. Maybe you just did politically corrected forever. That's awesome. There I I think you'll snap out of it in the next five minutes. I have a sense you already did.

1:42:09Holloway to nine two three. I don't understand North Carolina voters. Republicans control the legislative lead voter registration to have two US senators to Republican right centers. But Cooper's gonna win the race after a hung western North Carolina to dry after clean. Well, we'll see this is this is you're you're absolutely right. I'm with you. Holloway. This is I'm a little so so the pro populist movement in the Republican Party. I am generally with death. But every once in a while they nominate someone who's just a dud and it looks like might wildly as a dud. I just haven't seen anything from him yet. And you do have to prove your bonafives if you want him to get money. Now he should be able to get it because he was the co chairman of the R&C did a great job in 24 with Laura Trump as the other co chair. But yeah, he's just I and I expect the polls to to to tighten as we get closer. But and for precisely these sort of things Roy

1:43:15Cooper, it's not just that Roy Cooper is going to be a vote for wokeness. He's going to be a vote to impeach. He's going to be a vote at franthe Trump now again, all the anti Trumpers in North Carolina and the Durham triangle and Charlotte and all that. We'll be like yeah, but the vast majority of the state will be like no, get the hell out here. So there's plenty against Roy Cooper they can run. But he's he's a popular governor like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. And that popularity and that name recognition is carrying him through. We'll see if it carries him through the the the finish line. Their Republican gains and voter registration aren't big enough yet. Now when they start hitting gains like nine 10 7 8 9 10 percent then it's over. That's what we're starting to see in Arizona. That's why I still think Andy Biggs has a really good shot there. But they start hitting 8 9 percent which they will which they will in the next 10 years or so.

1:44:18But it's a slow it's a slow moving train unfortunately. So Texas on La Shaw on a video yesterday I think you kind of all of handedly said Trump may not even care of Democrats to the house. Can you expand on that? Yeah. Has he set things up so that they'll just keep running or have a contingency plan? Yeah. So what what I meant by that I there are a few others talking about this. So right now the house all of the major spending that Trump wanted has been secured up till 2029 if I could even pass that might even be 2032. We're talking homeland security talking ice you name it and that's all because of the big beautiful bill. So he's already won in terms of a spending agenda domestic agenda and the like. Now of course he wants to save act and he wants these other things of bagga enshrined in federal law. And if he loses a house he's not going to get that by by any stretch imagine it and again we're already finding he's he's running

1:45:21on all these roadblocks in the Senate. John Thunes case for like well that just means you got to vote for more Republicans because the Democrats are standing in the way. No John no you have the majority. You can fire the parliamentarian. There's no excuse for you guys not passing the save act but regardless nice spin nice try but yeah so what Trump then with that in mind what Trump has found is even with a relatively bogged down Congress he's able to get so much done through the revivocation of article two powers and what he had to do so he had to destroy the he had to destroy the administrative state. And what is it is it what was the the handy decision I'm trying to remember there was Supreme Court decision that basically gave him complete authority to overhaul the administrative

1:46:21state. Now he's he has unleashed the power of the presidential pen the EO and he's able to pretty much do whatever he wants especially now yeah you'll get a judge here or there but most of his EOs are crushing it and they've gone unchallenged and and and he can also declare national emergencies to get whatever he wants done. So in many respects he doesn't care what the House does or even Congress even both Senate and House does he's got the power of the presidency that he believes will go into 2028 with the JD Vance victory since the Democrats have no bench and also we tend to like having the same party in power to your two administrations in a row. So all of that said he doesn't he doesn't think he needs Congress in order to govern successfully what he needs Congress for is to enshrine his governance into permanent law so it doesn't get overturned if God forbid a Democrat gets

1:47:29an in 2028. Thomas Saviano read the equal politics projected the Democrats to get 219 seats in the House even though the GOP has the registration advantage yet no again I think Jack is very sober in his assessment and what what he is saying there is even if they pull off what is usually the inevitable right which is the party in power lose the seats we only have 218 right so if we lose one seat were done so in 2018 we'd be down 40 seats even if the Democrats pull off what is historically almost inevitable only three exceptions to that still they only walk away with one or two seats that's it that there is going to be no blue way there will be a few contests going their way that flips the House by one two three seats I do I think they're I think they're at a

1:48:38I tend to be I agree with Red Eagle I Jack is his name I tend to agree I think they have a ceiling of about 220 I think Republicans also have a ceiling again the redistricting is working both ways we have to wait to 20 well we have to wait till bunches idiot red state legislatures like Indiana and Ohio and Louisiana get there and their South Carolina get their ass to gear in gear and and give us real maps and get rid of their stupid blues I mean again New England doesn't have a single blue district not one play the same game get rid of every blue district everyone so no I I think until that happens we both have ceilings in the mid to low 20s to 20s and so based on what he's seeing that's that's where we are now if that's where we are right now if that's where we are right now if we're at the beginning of September and the prognosis the

1:49:43projection is 219 for the Democrats we got this we got a real chance of turning that around and picking up picking off that seat and keeping it 218 or ourselves getting it to 19 to 20 so he's I I think that's actually good news Joe and since you brought out the minds of the majority of senate Republicans do you know do they know we despise them and they're a foot right yes they do they don't care they do because though they know how to pander to you during election season but no I'm with you it's it's just they're they're they're beyond horrific they're politicians this is what politicians do it's horrible stuff but I'm with you Joe no they know they know we do not like them and you know they're just trying to write out this mega wave they think it's temporary it's not it's permanent the wave of the future that's why Trump continues to endorse because the more candidates

1:50:45he endorses the more the Republican party as a whole in terms of the politicians have to acquiesce to maggot they have to bend the knee to maggot Yenny Sattucker Yenny Sattucker the remedy is flood local seats with patriots amen amen exactly what we have to do exactly right everybody get involved and and that we'll have Cliff Maloney on in the next couple of weeks he'll be talking about he's a Pennsylvania chase he'll be talking about what you can do if you want to go and volunteer with him to go knock on doors he wants to do hundreds of thousands of those doors to get people to the polls again you're not knocking to convince anybody you're knocking on doors of Republicans who request ballots these are Republicans these are patriots and if you work with Cliff and you get a stipend and all that sort of stuff though it takes care of everything you work with Cliff all you're doing is going to Republican stores and say hey we saw you got a ballot did you fill it out yet have you

1:51:48sent it back yet if you haven't sent it oh yep you already did great we're gonna take your name on the flip if you haven't say can I come back in a couple of days just to make sure everything's okay you know that kind of stuff so this making sure there's low to no prop voters are getting in their ballots early so that are our die hard voters that dominate election day finish the job Thomas Maloney uh Thornton Maloney why does he Thomas there FYI Harvard Harris final poll was Harris plus two yet congressional ballot Democrat plus two on election night 2024 yeah they were off on that one they were all fun 22 by three it but again that fits the pattern that's that's the interesting pattern that Patrick Ruffini came up and found that that polls were generally speaking off by four in favor of Democrats over the last what was it three it was 3600 polls over the last four years or so and then Quannis insight said you know if we factor that in if we factor that

1:52:55in the shift to the left then Democrats really are only up by two or three now if Quannis insights correct here and and they still deferred to Democrats then possibly Republicans are up three or four so that's all that's the game you're playing with polls in the sense you're just constantly trying to you're trying to try you're constantly trying to get the turbulence to steady out around past indicators but very good thank you Thornton for that politically incorrect forever dr. Steve that creep Democrat Terry Sean's was conducting a different of poll survey with Nick Shirley pun and homophone intended poll survey oh gosh I think I get it I'm a little slow at these things

1:53:59the Maria Bartoromo as our next press secretary I've seen that I've seen that that would be very interesting would it not and I believe she's still getting paid from Fox it's kind of like a Tucker situation where they they they take you down they knock you out but you're still getting paid it's a pay to play I guess they call it our pay and play contract Titus Maximus in Texas we call the Comedy Center wannabe telefrico voted for PACs in the primary will vote for me again amen oh he's a good man Ken Pag I was when I was in at Mar-a-Lago he was there he's a great man very very decent modest dude and yeah only a rhino could be dissatisfied with him Max Tien how are we looking over to Oregon Dr. Sarah we still on track to get a Republican governor I have not looked at the polls since my video it's probably about a month ago so I have

1:55:00is it draws and I'm trying to remember dragon I'm gonna have to I have to refresh myself with that to see it's gonna be hard I'm not gonna lie to you it's gonna be very hard again voter registration is a bitch so it's gonna be very very hard to win in an overwhelming overwhelmingly Democrat state and we're talking obviously molten in my county we're not talking about Oregon as a whole Oregon as as geographically is rich dense Republican territory it's it's molten McKowney it's there are a couple of others that if you got rid of them the Republican would win would win by 10 points in every election so but it's it's overcoming Portland that's that's the hard that's the hard ask Ray Ranger Bear it's hard to win when you can't cheat amen amen I like that it's hard to win when you can't cheat yeah if you're a Democrat right amen for that

1:56:00rebel guy with JD Vance nor Trump not endorsing Thune for Senate leader he may be cocky maybe he may be in 2028 and I wouldn't I wouldn't doubt it the Trump has no problem getting right look John Corning was supposed to be Senate leader he was one of the two or three up for for Senate leader position and he just he just got his butt handed to him he lost by 30 points in the last in the last primary ID 3565 I believe the atheist Tucker Carlson's last true thing he said was when he said he was attacked by a demon in the night he's been off ever since as the demon has been in control oh I don't know if he's an atheist I don't I don't want to I don't want to say that um but uh yeah that was an odd thing from to say it was um just the the the um the explicitness of it and uh you know I I certainly believe in demonic warfare and um demonic possession no question I've

1:57:07done videos on it as a matter of fact uh exorcisms have been on the rise uh in the west and um over the last decade or so but yeah there's some something again you can't what he's putting forward right now is is um is is intellectually and coherent you can't be pro america and anti-western and that's what he's doing when he's when he's embracing kind of this islamism I mean even even the islam he's embracing with with the Iranian regime Islam is that uh is going through a bit of a civil war yes there are those who are embracing the third world as them uh zinebrew of the Hudson Institute has been writing about this she's very good yes there are there are the maim donnies and the uh elsayeds and all um who are embracing this third world as a death to the west all that sort of stuff but there's a let me Saudi Arabia UAE Syria and its new

1:58:10administration um Bahrain I mean there's a whole host of islamic uh nations uh that are embracing the west right now and they're embracing the civilizationalist megaism that they're seeing happen and they want to tap into the networked multi polarity that trump is setting up all over the world and taking over the choke points and major energy choke points and the like so so Tucker just giving us he represents a a a a marginal islam for islam as a whole and then that marginal islam is anti west and then he claims to be anti-american he's opposing trump because trump has supposedly betrayed america first you cannot be pro-america and anti-west it's it's an absolutely incoherent view from sector cvz administration executing a belt to ass strategy I when I see when we talk to you politics I see belt I think china right belton road initiative um

1:59:17uh is he uh executing a belt to ass right yes i it sounds like it i mean he knew karni wasn't going to uh cooperate and he's just basically humiliating him in front of the world at this point and that's that gang all right make sure you stick with the channel because i am your back porch professor over the weekend and he breaking news you'd be the first to know and with analysis you're not going to get anywhere else love you guys have a wonderful weekend. God bless thanks so much for listening to this episode of the turley talks podcast don't forget to subscribe leave us a five star review and share this episode with your friends help us defeat the fake news media and rank as the number one news and commentary podcast all over the world come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age