DWCS Week 5 Betting Guide (Sean Shelby Algorithm) | MMA Gambling Podcast (Ep.1166)

0:00They won 166th edition of the MMGM link podcast on this fourth skittling podcast network is brought to you by the SGPN app. Get all of our picks and podcasts for free with the SGPN app. Hi, hi, hi, a whole degenerino's. Oh, yes, I'm back. Dead serious 69 Jeff Fox is back. The MMGM link podcast, this fourth skittling podcast network dedicated everyone who missed me. We had too many comments for me to even to single out one person. We had one hater who who did not miss me for so long. The episodes that's fine. I will not mention your name here. I almost gave him an episode about you. Oh, God. I assumed you would. That's standing up. You're really used to seeing him. And thank you, Gumby for following on the four. And thank you all of you for having make those episodes blow up, which I don't know how

1:02to feel. I'm kind of kind of conflicted. It's great that we're getting lots of views and traffic and listens. What does that say about me? But I know I said it off there, but I'm going to I'm going to put my hypothesis here too. I think it's because so many people were commenting that they missed you that it blew up the algorithm, you know, so that's actually a little bit of reverse psychology here. You take things away and they want it more. That's true. It is true. But I'm back. Sorry. The ladies are happy. I'm back. I'm sure the one female of you that we have, but some of you are not as happy because Gumby runs a far more professional show than I do, but that's okay. We're going to have a fun time regardless. We got some content mysteries coming up as we do this time of year. This will be marked halfway after the show. We will be halfway through the content mysteries. It continues to give it and take it the way I see Gumby last week was a take it the way week, but you had a dog. So you probably broke even are close. I was pretty close to breaking even and also I will just say to I really believe I should have come out on top there.

2:03The other fight Hunter Smith versus Adam Livingston went to split decision. I thought it was pretty clearly Hunter Smith decision in coming. I mean, he was on the gas the whole time. I don't think Smith's punches did more damage other than Hunter Smith clearly got like loads of scar tissue on his face. And ultimately it might have cost him because like the fact that he was leaking a little bit right next to his eye was enough for I think to sway at least one of those judges for around. Especially because the craziest part is I thought he clearly one round two in that fight. And three was maybe a toss up. I'm like off he loses this fight is because they scored three for Livingston and I don't agree, but like I could see how they got there. Every judge gave three to Hunter Smith and somehow two judges gave round two to Adam Livingston which I did not think he would be drawing dead there in the third round. Although I guess Adam Livingston's corner did but did you catch Adam Livingston's call

3:04out after that? No, I didn't. After back pedaling for 15 minutes, he really, really believes he should be the opener for the pay-per-view in MSG coming up. He does spin a lot. So that's something. Yeah, I guess he's really like spinning. It was just, you know, and I don't mean to detract from Adam Livingston because like I said, I like Adam Livingston and I also think he's a wildly exciting fighter and that was maybe the worst performance I've ever seen in his whole life. And maybe it's because Hunter Smith's dangerous, but like I can't imagine like coming off of the spinning back elbow KO and like all the fun stuff he's done, he had that performance and he was like, man, they're gonna love it. You know what I mean? It was just like a, it was a weird tone to strike right after, you know, what should have seemed like he knew was like maybe not his best showing. Yeah, but these days, if you win, you get a contract. So, which is not entirely true. Not entirely true. Almost is almost entirely true, but tell Abe Alcagear that fact.

4:08Yeah, that's the thing, though. It's, yeah. And when he does decide not to give someone contract, it's a headscratch, I don't know. They want cheap labor and this is the thing. I don't know. The Alcagear one wasn't a headscratcher. I said ahead of time that was not a contender series level fight and he watched and he said it wasn't a, like I think he nailed that one. Yeah. There were other ones he said like weird things about, but that one he got right, I think. We've seen, unfortunately, we've seen quite a few non-contenders series level fights this season. So, but I guess when you don't pay a lot and fighters can get paid more in bigger promotions and not have to jump through hoops, our commissaries that they're gonna do that. I think this week's crop before we actually dive into it. A couple of fun ones there. We've got two late replacements which can be kind of hit or miss and actually on this episode, I think one is hit and one is miss. Very exciting for one late replacement. And I actually have a theory on why it took them to be a late replacement and all that kind of stuff.

5:09We'll talk about that. And then there's a, you know, a couple other fighters I'm excited about. We got a return because of course we do. That's what contender series does now. They bring people back who either lost or won unimpressively. You know, we got some big dudes who doesn't, who doesn't love a big dude fight. Yeah. We got midaways in light heavyweight. You know that that's gonna be good. So, yeah, I kind of like this card at least. You know, I think I said it about, you know, episode four, comparative to episode three. The match is better in these last two episodes even if maybe the talent level isn't, you know, the aggregate higher. Yeah, don't get me wrong. I think it's a bad way to judge talent and to some people do a C, but it is a fight and challenge. Watching the buddy on it. Yeah, it's very fun. I just think it's stupid to, and it's something gained it really based on it off of like what he sees that night too. Well, he says that though. He's like, I only care about what I see. And then like the first thing out of his mouth is he came in here as a two to one underdog. And I'm like, so not bad.

6:09He's like, Betty, Betty lines, Betty lines age and what do you see in the case? So not, so not based on what you see. Right? That's all that based on it. It's true. All right. It doesn't matter what Dana thinks. We're going to watch. We're going to, we're going to bet on it. After I tell you a couple of things, it's good things. So free roll of football contest is a back. So you can pick every game against the spread for a chance to win up to a $4,000. That's US money. So as people in Canada, that's worth even more. And today it's for scammingpogas.com slash free at roll. And this is an important one.

7:11We're going to be able to pick and fight a breakdown starting with flywitz, which is never bad thing. We can start. We can end. We can have flywitz all in the middle to fight with that. Curtin Loud from the states, Christian Natividad, a kind of famous in the MMA world. Last name, I guess? Household. Household name in if you're sickles, I guess, a 355 minutes rounds 125, you know. All right. Natividad is the Hawaiian punch. And I know three knockouts is he's taken his fight on short notice. We have two of those this week is gummy. All of his fights are taking place in the LFA. So he is fought at a high level. He's fight up the way class 135. Loud is 7-1-1-4 knockouts, three submissions. He's been spending once. He owes his rounds for sure. Natividad owes his finishes. Loud, two straight wins, both the submission. He's not lost to fights in March of 2024. He was a regional champ. He is fought at 130 and 135. He's four years younger than Natividad, four inch a taller, four inch reach advantage. So triple four is there. Much bigger, much younger. No odds because the books are cowardly. One here with gummy says before they set their line.

8:12So go ahead. Yes, we've talked about and two, and the Christian Natividad before he's been on my podcast. He's the guy who I think two things have gone against him. And the reason that he hasn't already been on the contender series or stuff is that they called him one time and asked him if he wanted to be on the ultimate fighter. I believe he was a finalist or at least like his management was in talks for him to be on the season that Joseph Morales won. And he turned it down saying he'd like to be on contender series instead. I think you have to help that against him for a while. Because then he didn't immediately wind up like contender series afterwards. I think he was seven to know when coming off seven straight LFA wins, which is kind of crazy when you consider it. He's picked up two more here and again wasn't going to be on contender series. And I think the other reason other than that they seem to like not like that he was maybe shunning their first offer. If he does have a lot of decisions on his record, right? Like it's not a finish heavy record. And it does seem like the longer and longer contender series kicks around.

9:12It's like basically a scam through tapology for Sean Shelby to try to figure out who's got the most finishes in the smallest number of fights, right? Like that seems to be what they like. And in submissions probably don't even count towards that too as long as they know. It's true. But I think I think he has to uncover the algorithm right there. Yeah. Knockout finishes. Sean Shelby is a tapology. Yeah. So, you know, I think that's gone against the Tiffy dot and it's a shame because I think he should be the clear favorite in this fight. Now, I don't know about the short notice piece of it all. If anything, I think maybe it just brings him closer to even. Maybe I'll say like maybe negative one fifty five on Christian the Tiffy dot. I do think he's going to be the favorite despite the height to reach the age. All those things you mentioned. Man, I just think he's a way better fighter than Colton Loud. Colton Loud, you know, he is rangel. He likes to throw that little kick up the middle. He's a guy who his best use of his range is a kick up the middle.

10:13But we've also seen like somebody catches kicks before and run him down into a takedown. And he kind of didn't look great on the mat. Like he looks really good when he's the one, you know, on top and initiating the takedowns and hitting the daurus jokes. He's got back to back daurus jokes when he's on the feet. But like if you look at his loss, like somebody caught his kick and just like kind of ran him down and kept him down. And then ultimately he winds up being the one getting daurus joke in that fight. So it's like he's really good at being the hammer when it comes to grappling. Not so good at being the nail. And I think he's going to be the nail here because Christian the Tiffy dot when he gets in down at like a clinch grappling situation, he's like a dog on a bone. Like this guy just goes and gets it. And that's crazy because like right, his nickname is the Hawaiian punch and he does swing it. And he can hit and I especially like, you know, I was just talking about Colton Louds kick up the middle. Christian the Tiffy Dodds rear leg kick in the way that he delivers it to the body. I mean, I know he's a shorter guy, but that thing is devastating. Like he really hits people hard with that kick. And so like for Colton Loud, like I think he's maybe like one caught kick away from just

11:17getting grinded into the ground and maybe really make a joke. You know, ground and pound for Christian the Tiffy Dodd there too. And on the feet like, yeah, he sharp. He's good, but like I also don't know that he's good enough that it's going to stop Christian the Tiffy Dodd from biting down on the mouthpiece and just getting nasty because that's what Christian the Tiffy Dodd does. He's shorter than a lot of guys at flyweight, even though he's a flyweight. He's five four. It's not like he's towering over anybody in this division with, you know, a couple of small exceptions. He's used to biting down and getting into range and just like letting it fly. And like sometimes when he mixes it up after a while and the other guy's starting to get reckless, that's when he changes level. So I think he can do all of that here against Colton Loud. I kind of expect him to be faster, better grappler, definitely better control if he stays on top. And you know, like the range might be a problem, but like I don't know how much of a problem it'll be, especially because like loud might even be hesitant to throw those kicks being that like there's a chance the Tiffy Dodd catches them and makes them pay. Right.

12:18Okay. So the Tiffy Dodd is he play you said it was like negative one 55 somewhere around there. I think the late notice might help us keep that number low. You know, he is undefeated though. So there's a piece of that that worries me. Topologist say 88% for him. Yeah, that's kind of. That's kind of. That's it. Yeah. For sure. And all right. As like I said, the finish finish thing for getting yourself on to condennesaries is real. As you'll hear as I go through each of these fighters, you may wonder how did this guy make condennesaries? It's like like in the main event, for instance, there's like the one guy has like barely any resume. I'm not good reason why both those guys are in there. We'll talk. All right. All right. Next fight coming up one ill one. That's right. It's ill right? One ill one. Yes. He's from South Korea. Apollo gomes from a Brazil. They're fighting at an away three five rounds. Duce the Guara got a war is a gomes. Is he gomes are Gomez? You're not top your head. I think it's going to respect. Gomes is 12 and two with one no contest.

13:19Five knockers four submissions. He's been submitted twice. He's won three straight. He's not lost since July 2024. So he's gone three and oh and five and one with one no contest over his last seven. He went on one with one no contest in LFA. He's fought at 125 one 45 one 55. He went one and all in pro karate. He's five years younger than one. Quan pretty boy. Got a war versus pretty by I know who I would take in a nickname fight. Fourteen and six for quan. Twelve knockers one submission. Like I said finishes. So we're not going three times submit twice. He oses rounds. Oh one of the service because who got him? He fought in our basketball fight. Do you remember that? Hmm. I remember basketball fight. I can't remember why it was a basketball fight though. That was because it was one on one. Right up ahead. It was a gum be joke. That's why I don't want to be it. Right. It was a gum be joke. He has lost two straight fights both to get TK out before that he had one three straight. Usually you'll see guys coming in off back to back loss. He's not one if I had to this January 2024 9 and five in one championship.

14:22That's the reason why he's in this in the contender series. That's a big promotion world. He's got five at one forty five one fifty five twenty fourteen for all of me. The bill for quan. Twitch is taller than goams an inch of reach of an inch. Yeah. Should quan be the welcome back? You know I remember not really liking quan in the lead up and I remember taking one deas in that fight. Especially because remember I took a lot of heat for for doubt in the Napoleon fighter that just came up. I took a lot of heat for doubting one illquan. He has got a big following in South Korea South Korea shows out for one illquan. They showed up in our comments last time. Although that one served me well. Whereas the ribbon didn't one did not so much. But I watch back one illquan when he fought one deas and I'm like I don't remember liking him this much and maybe it's that I didn't really like his one Fc fights and then I like watched him play one deas and I'm like you know I don't know necessarily that he's winning because he had like a moment where like it was pretty much a 50-50 fight on the

15:24feet in the first round. He did give him a take down so I was probably enough to sway the judges. But then he was like looking pretty good in the second round too. Again I thought it was like kind of a 50-50 fight. I really like the boxing. He uses a really long jab mixes it up really well. He's got good head movement. Ultimately like he got caught with a spinning back elbow and like do you ever really judge anybody's talent based on being caught by a spinning back elbow I do. And like leading up to that he looked really good. I also like kind of like the way that he reacted to the second take down attempt from Wantiez. It's got really low really really pushed his head down. Did the smart things circle the way. Like you know he gave up some take downs but like ultimately he reacts very well to them. Jumpes a lot quickly. Quick with the hands. And then I watch Apollo goms who I do think is going to be the favorite here. How much so probably not much because you know I'm losing to an arrow will definitely hurt but the one FC backing will probably keep it close. I'll say like this one might even be closer like negative 140 plus 120 on Juan.

16:28And like goms is a little bit more of a rock and sock inside you know sits way down on his punches looking to unload on something huge. And like you know and Juan's been knocked out twice in a row so like maybe people think this is a third one's on the way but also like I wasn't really impressed with like goms ability to find that range and land his strikes like he's kind of more of a buck shot approach where he's going to keep loading up on those until somebody accidentally walks into one. And I even went back and I watched his last loss which was to Leo Alva share who is pretty terrible striker if I'm being frank you know he's a good grappler but a pretty terrible striker. And early in that fight Alva share just decides like I'm going to box him up and get in his face. And he just like marches forward and goms looks like really confused about how to deal with that. And I'm like man if Alva Jair striking is going to give you trouble, Juan is going to blow you out of the water. So I'm going to go underdog here. I'm going to give Juan Eau Juan his flowers. Hopefully this South Korean contingency doesn't get on me this time hopefully hopefully they're in our corner.

17:30I know one that will say LFG to this that would be our. Yeah let's go John. All right. He's got Juan. All right. Let's tell you about Clutch Parlaise. A gum he was telling you about this wall as a way. He hit some winners on there not surprisingly I've been using Clutch Parlaise to make my recommendations in place as well. So let's tell you all about it. We're brought to you by Clutch Parlaise. That's why I'm telling you about it. Clutch Parlaise has you covered with data back predictions. Predictions are updated live during the games which lots of fun. That also means you get updated on it's the every pitch basket in possession. The best sports books to place their highest edge place. Keep eating against others and weekly monthly and all time profit leader boards. Most importantly Clutch Parlaise is easy to use with a simple and clean dashboard. I can vouch for that. Clutch Parlaise is the one stop shot for research and plus EV opportunities. Gummies are going to give you another win right now. Look they gave us 40% edge on UMass over Rutgers UMass first win in 16 games. It's been a year and a half since they picked up a dub.

18:30Clutch Parlaise was on it and tonight they're on the Padres money line over the Yankees 22%. They're not as confident as they were in UMass but they are feeling good about the Padres tonight. So we're going to ride with them. Let's take the Padres over the Yankees. All right. The best part you get one month free over at Clutch Parlaise with our promo code sgpm. So clutchparlaise.com promo code sgpm and unlog who wants to be a millionaire this football season. I do download unlog and jump into keep your million. You can start with a million bucks and head your bets across 20 player projections questions by splitting your cash and higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the wing side but if you hit zero you are out. Make it through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever is left in bonus funds. Remember I actually got me get the people play. Yeah. So you can't use this one in your million dollar contest here because that's football specific but if you're playing pick them or maybe champions or something like that.

19:32How much you check out Chris sale against the Phillies tonight. It's Chris sale versus Chris Sanchez. It is an absolute showdown but I'm going to take the higher than on Chris sale straight outs. Last time out you had 11 against the Dodgers. You're going to think about a big number again here. I remember football contest training involves risks including total loss and positions, contents for emotional and not a recommendation to trade for motion issue by affiliate terms apply. That's the tease and cease. All right. Here's another thing for you with on a dog new customers and select states can now get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds. Remember the code on a dog promo code MMA SGP and so MMA SGP and is the promo code to use there. The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our 32 NFL team previews and of course your chance to win $8,000 NFL future with. Let's go back to the meta apex.

20:41We have got three fights left. We are third from the top middle weights. Martin and Kozak he is from the Slovak Republic. Christian Eccles from the United States as it's said the fight in that middleweight one eighty five. We'll tell you about the vanilla gorilla. Oh boy. Gumby another vanilla gorilla. We've definitely talked about it before. I thought so. All right. So this isn't a brand new one for us, which is good. I don't want to discover new vanilla gorillas. We have enough. Vanilla gorillas eight and four two knockout six missions. He's been knocked out three times to make it once. Perfect fighter for chemistry is right. He owns his rounds. He's taking this fight on short notice. I know how he got it. He finishes people. He's one four or five. TK win in his last belt. He was a regional champ. He's a regional and bell tore. RIP. He's fired at two or five and heavyweight. Kozak CEO if you wonder why that nickname is is CEO. Check out the top turtle and may podcast this depends on week year. Let's come to it the week of first week of September. Gumby had him on six and no for Kozak four knockout two

21:41submissions. He owns his rounds. He's a regional champ. You spied at a hundred and one a pound. He's four years of England. Eccles six inches taller. Yeah. So you know, obviously the size of the big piece. So before we get too deep into this breakdown, if you're on topology right now, Jeff, I got to import you. Have you seen Christian Eccles is college stat on on. Is there a college where he went to college? Yeah, he is his the school of hard knocks or Sean. Yeah, Sean Shelby sign me. Yes. Yes. So that's probably why he did you see his white side? I'll be in vanity search. Let me see. Sean Shelby vanity searches that improves that. So he went college went to a Sean Shelby sign me. Let me see. Fighting out of Alabama. foundational style of the mix up. Interesting. That's not as good as Bobby Green when his was described as Hood, but it's still a just. Yeah, it's good. Anyway, you know, as much as Eccles is a good entertainer,

22:42he doesn't belong in a Nintendo series. You know, he's one fight removed from losing a girl. I'm go catch really. I guess no shame in that, although Goat Coach really has picked up a loss. And Goat Coach really is actually fighting Jack Kong, Dean Oberon, Cage Titan soon. Cool. I almost rather that fight be here. Either of those guys being this fight instead of Eccles, although Kong is coming off some surgery and stuff. So maybe, maybe not him, but. Yeah, Eccles is like, like if you look at his style, super short for being a middleweight, you know, like not a big guy. Still like really stocky. I don't know how he ever went up to heavyweight or lay heavyweight, but like really stocky for middleweight. But like for some reason, his standup is still like mostly led by him liking to throw head kicks. You know, like that's not a good plan. And you know, you can wrestle a little bit. His wrestling skills are definitely there. But like, you know, when it comes to Martin Kozak, this guy is very fun to watch. On the feet, good from range. A little bit more like a karate taekwondo, ask stands, he throws kicks to the body that are stabbing in a way that like,

23:47you know, his last fight he ended that way, but he uses something almost all of his fights. But the one he ended, he, it the second the toes hit that dude's body, he just crumbles. Incredible kicks to the body. And like I said, with like a pointed toe, like he's really digging in on those. His hands are good too. You know, he's great from range. And then we've seen little bits and pieces of his grappling that like aren't awful. You know, somebody shot in out of take down. He actually wound up reversing the position wound up on top. Some like arm triangle set up, some green-naked choke stuff. Like he's got good top pressure. And I really expect him to use that here. I expected mostly to just like stuff, you know, sprawl and brawl. It is what I'm expecting out of Kozak. And with how much reach and how much length he has here, I don't even think he's ever going to be like close enough to get in danger. So you know, look for him to just like, piece up the body of echoes and just like looking to find his spot. Once he finds it, this is over. All right. The play is, you give us a line here for a negative 500, negative 600, kind of one of those situations. We've had some very wide lines this year, have we not?

24:49After we've gone to air. Yeah. This one should be one of those wide ones, I believe. Boo. All right. Anyhow, we got a big winners. That's the job. All right. Come in event. Well, it's weights. Isaac Amorano from the United States. Hejanado, a junior from Abrazale. You know, because I said hejanado and not Reginado. He's the beast this junior fella. 11-1, 4-0 goes 5 submissions. He's never been finished. He always rounds still. He's won 5 straight, 2 straight via finish. He's not lost to fights as March 2023, 5-1 in LFB. So he's found at a high level for basically half his career, exactly half his career. He's found it 185, 1-0 in pro kickboxing, 2 years younger, and then Marano. Primetime, Marano is 8-0, 5-0 out. It's taking this fight on a short notice. He's on 3 straight via TKO. All his fights are taking place in theory. So he's fought at a fairly high level as well. 1-0 in pro grappling and inched out in junior. Yeah, I forgot Marano was a short notice fighter on this one, too. I don't know what that'll do to the line.

25:50I had penciled in Marano at negative 125, but I did forget that he was late replacement. This might be a pick him. Let's say pick him on this one name. And I'm going to be in on Marano. Originally, I was going to be in on him as a slight favor. So if he gets down into that underdog range, I'm definitely in on him. And the reason's pretty simple. I think Hedgin Aldo Jr's striking defense is pretty good. He rolls with punches as well. So even when people are connecting on him, he's doing pretty good of like staying out of trouble. It's got some decent head movement. The only time that really lags behind is when he starts to get excited that he might be landing. And then he's kind of there to be countered. And that's true of a lot of regional guys when they're getting ready to bite down and try to put this one away. Sometimes they forget that they might get put away. He does wrestle pretty well. Like I like his double leg. The entry smart, he changes levels and gets to the hips. He just doesn't control on the mat all that well. Like it seems like everybody he's fought is gets right back up to their feet when they fight him.

26:51And when you look at Marano, like, first of all, I'm not so worried about the grappling defense because it's held up against pretty damn good grapplers. Like I think Marano is straight to schedule. His low key very impressive for a regional guy. He's friend. So by the way, you might remember, fought three and never once was finished. His only other finish was a doctor stop that you do to a cut in a five round fight. Other than that, Gary and Weeks has never been finished which includes a fight with Ian Gary. But it dies in Marano who finished the guy. It did so pretty infatically if I might add. He also fought Sam Kilmer who recently fought for the Fury title. Stuff to take down as Kilmer, which are pretty impressive, although he gave one up early. And so like I like his grappling defense and how it should hold up against Hedginaldo Jr. And then on the feet, I just kind of like the way that he snipes his particularly from his South Post Dance because he does switch. But from the South Post Dance, the way he snipes with a straight when somebody overextends themselves.

27:52As I mentioned, Reginaldo Jr. might do that. So like I like that counter. I also like that he really frustrates his opponent. A lot like throwing that, throws that like a bleak kick, repeated lead to the front knee. And he does that usually from his South Post Dance. He doesn't do it too much from the orthodox. But I think he can frustrate Hedginaldo Jr. into overthrowing and then counter him, which I think is big. And I also think a big piece of this fight could be the cardio. Because Isaac Marano despite wrestling for large swats of time, looks really good in light rounds. And Hedginaldo Jr., you know, like I noted, seems like in just about all this fight feco deep, he looks kind of toast in the third round. All right, unfortunately, the line of the frustrated. Sorry, were you guys, I think you cut out. No, I wasn't. You're cutting out. You cut out, sir. But yeah, so yeah, I kind of expect Marano anyway to frustrate him with the kicks, force him to overextend in snite. And if that doesn't work anyway, I think he'll just tire about anyway.

28:53So there's multiple paths here for Marano. Now you're done. I'm done. Six. This wasn't a problem when there was only one of them. No, I know. It's true. You just had some picture in my place, like a carboat kind of, 60% I'm Marano. So maybe won't be a pick them or maybe topologists are just smarter than then bookmakers. He's undefeated too, right? Like there's another undefeated. That's another one of your things. That's the topologist. Topology of his own. He's undefeated. Topology undefeated. Go up, undefeated. All right, one more play it to go. Let's talk about Cauchy first. So we're brought to you by Cauchy. On Cauchy you can treat spreads, money lines, totals, futures and much more. Cauchy is great prices for college and profile. You can trade almost anything on Cauchy and they're available in a ton of states, T's and C's terms conditions do apply. Gumby, you have a play on Cauchy for us too. Yeah, I've been waiting a lot about futures. And actually if you go back just a couple of weeks, I wrote about MLB playoff futures. I said, hey, you should get in on the diamond backs when in one of those wild card spots

29:55and look who is up. It's a diamond back. So yeah, if you still got some value there, go check out what you can get for trading the diamond backs as a possible playoff. All right, trade 25 bucks and get $25 over on Cauchy. If you use our promo code SGPN. So Cauchy is KLSHI and the promo code SGPN. Circa Circa's worth of focus is giving away at least $30 million in prizes for this year's handy capping contest. Sign up in Nevada and play from anywhere. If you're gonna play, you'll need a proxy. So head over to footballcontest.com. Use our promo code SGPN and get $50 off your proxy fees. But TikTok, TikTok. The time is ticking. The season has almost started. So make sure you get in there right away. Made a man. Gumby says there's a reason these guys are in the made a man. So I'll give you the breakdown and then he'll tell you. Arland, Berisha, he is from Albania. Albania, excuse me. He is from Norway. Norway? Oh, let me see. Albanian flag. I think he's Albanian. Yes. He's in Norway.

30:55Yeah. To Albanian parents and now fights out of Albania. Correct. Born in Norway now he is fighting out of Albania. Correct. He's fighting Quentin Paisley from the United States. But he doesn't go by Quentin Paisley. He goes by cheese, right? Is this cheese? No. No, the different cheese. You're thinking of seven cheese hunts. That's next week. Seven cheese hunts. Cheese hunts is a great name. Anyhow, Paisley, three no, three knockouts. There you go. That's why he's in the made event. One of them on LFA. One of them is his grounds. He's a pro boxing, three one in pro grappling, a year younger than Berisha. How's this for Rosme? Five no for Berisha. Four knockouts, one submission, he uses rounds and it's Charlotte and Paisley. That is it. He's not fought on any pro shan you've heard of and not much else to say about him. Didn't he fight for, is the FCC? It's on the back. That doesn't count. That doesn't count as a big professional. FCR. So you even got the name wrong. No, no, FCR is the one in like Europe somewhere. Where's FCR? I don't know, he has fought any spot. Oh no, FCR is the one I'm thinking of.

31:56Isn't that where Curtis Campbell came from and a couple of other dudes who are halfway decent? Anyway, regardless of whether or not that's a good promotion, it's worth noting. These guys look like they have no record at all, right? Like it's three and oh and you said five and oh for Berisha. Yes, correct. So it's worth noting Paisley seven and oh was an amateur. Okay, so he's fought ten times already in his career and Berisha was eight and one is an amateur and went to the IMMAFs where he lost a resueling mega mettoff, who you might remember is now ten you know and probably one of the number one prospects in PFL. He also beat Nell Ariano while he was an amateur who's going to be on Contender Series as well. So like we're talking about despite the fact that the record looks like five and five and oh, he's really 13 and one with only a loss to a PFL guy and a win over a Contender Series guy if you want to count amies. So like he's really racked up a lot of experience and same with Paisley, like he could be ten and oh, if you count some of those amy fights. So there's a reason why the UFC has decided to trust these guys despite their crazy quick

33:00records and also obviously they're both finishers. And if I had to guess here, I'm going to guess Berisha is going to be the favorite, a little bit longer of a record. I know you don't respect the organization he's been in but like I think they are going to be good. I didn't say that. I just said it's not a big organization. And you're proved it by getting the name wrong. So there you go. Yeah, yeah, FCR. Yeah, so I think he's going to be the favorite. My guess is this one will get into the 200. It's probably negative 225, maybe even a little higher than that. And I'm going to pick Berisha. And the real reason why look, Paisley does bring the heat, you know, we've seen him score some early knockouts and clearly he brings it. But like maybe my problem with him is twofold. Number one, when somebody pressures him, he does play a little bit. I think maybe he's not used to being pressured by somebody who has a lot of skills. So even when you see somebody who's maybe doesn't like, I remember we broke down one of his fights or gave him out as a lightning round play for LFA one time. And he fought this like 45 year old dude who was making his pro debut. It was it was a Gracie, but like he was like a bad Gracie.

34:02And who like clearly only knew how to do Jiu Jitsu and like showed up to fight one time in MMA as like an old man. Rayland might have been Rayland Gracie. But regardless of which Gracie it was, like he came in and like even when Rayland Gracie just blitzed him, like there was that like flailing and pushing away with your fingers that you can tell like he's not used to dealing with that. And that's a problem here against Berisha because Berisha is going to be 20 or 30 times better than anybody's ever fought before. Another guy who is electric on the feet really, really, really dangerous with his kicks, keeps his low, his hands low. I think the speed is going to be astronomically different. I think Berisha is one of the faster 205 prospects you're going to find. And I think that alone with Paisley being a guy who freaks out a little bit when the pressure comes is going to be a problem. I also think there's a lot more swing and miss on Paisley stuff. He's a guy who like will throw a big uppercut and not be really where he needs to be for that uppercut because again, he's never really had to worry about somebody taking advantage

35:05of his mistake. Whereas Berisha looks very composed. It looks like a guy who fought a bunch of fights and IMAF and had to fight some really tough dudes. And the other thing is Berisha looked really good with his submission skills. Somebody shot a take that on him. He went like a palm-to-pom Guillotine action. Went for the Guillotine, kind of had the position, couldn't get his hand underneath. So he went palm-to-pom the finish it, which is like a pretty mature response to that kind of attack. So he's got some grappling chops in there. And when you add into fact that he's so much faster on the feet, I actually would probably not even mind him in a parlay if this gets up to like 300. I think he should be a sizable favorite here against Paisley. And I'm going to take him. All right. So Berisha is the player that's giving a recap. He's got Berisha. He's got Moreno. He's got Kozak. He's got Juan. He has got Natividad. Who would you sign without seeing, actually? Obviously, what they do on Tuesday. Who would you sign just based off of what you've seen so far? I mean, Chris and Natividad should have been in the UFC a long time ago. I don't know if he would have won this season with Joseph Morales because Joseph Morales

36:07showed out in that season. But his style probably would have been the hardest for Joseph Morales to deal with. So automatically, I'd love to see Christian Natividad in the UFC. If we're talking about a ceiling thing like that, Kozak and Berisha are in like kind of terrible divisions and they're kind of fresh in European where we've maybe not seen them tested. I think both of those could be like quick jumps into the defense, especially if both their take down defenses hold up because they are so dangerous on the feet. But if you want to tell me like there's one other guy on the fight card who's like very high in terms of his talent, I kind of like the boxing of Juan Ilquan. I know I doubted him the first time and rightfully so. But his only other losses were the Fabrizio Indrage. Recent losses were to Fabrizio Indrage in one. So he's fought a pretty high level of competition. Like, do you think he's going to impress people with how sharp he is in the feed? So you know, Christian Natividad number one, very clear with a bullet. Juan Ilquan, probably exciting, definitely worth being in the UFC.

37:12Kozak and Berisha just from like being in the stale division. And you know, that other fight with Marino, you know, he could definitely surprise me, but he sort of feels like the number five in terms of my winners. All right. We'll see how it all shakes out for real on Tuesday night. All right. In the meantime, we'll be in the discord sportsgemapogus.com slash discord. You can hit us up on YouTube in the comments there in the comments and Spotify. Hit us up on me or Twitter as GPN MMA. At Camille Grillin at Jeff Fox writer at Jeff Fox writer on Instagram. MoneyMMA.subject.com is my sub sac. Check that out for a lot of statistical based articles as well as my free UFC pick and contest. As we told you during the show, gummies got top title. I'm a hot cast. It's big on continuous rees fighters. I don't know if there's coming week is is it depends when you listen to this. But yeah, after you listen into this in the week that we recorded it, Martin Kozak, the guy who we just talked about is going to be fighting. And actually, you can go back and listen to it again because he's fighting and then we got Zed and Hunt, cheese, Zed and cheese hunt, who's going to be fighting the week after.

38:16And then next week's episode is in a little bit of flux. I've got some interviews that I could probably use. But I interviewed a contender series fighter who now is fighting at No. Che UFC next weekend instead of on contender series. So I might drop that interview anyway. I'm trying to see if he'll pop on for a follow up that we can just maybe amend to the end of the episode. But yeah, so it's going to be up in the air, but there are always good interviews on there. Yes, I agree. Always check out talk turtle. Check us out sportsgamampogus.com. Sportsgamampogus.com slash store. We still have our sale on 25% off, which is a half of the discount football at checkout. We'll get you that sportsgamampogus.com slash patreon for your bonus content. We have a basic week coming up. I think we have six episodes scheduled next week now that I'm on back. So Gummi doesn't have to talk to himself for a for half hour or 45 minutes. So we are going to be busy next week until then the Canadian punch. It's very well as does pretty boy, very lent. Adios.