DolphinsTalk The Aqua Line Week 1 College Picks | Best Bets and Locks

0:00This is Belie, one network, every topic, everywhere. Welcome to the 2026 season premiere of the DolphinsTalk.com gambling corner. College football is back and more importantly, welcome to the 2026 season premiere of the DolphinsTalk.com gambling corner. Now in many years past, it has been strictly an article based prediction for me. I usually did the DolphinsTalk.com gambling corner on dolphinstalk.com. Now we're incorporating this show each and every week to bring you my favorite picks for the games. Now with the NFL still not in action, we are going to focus on four games on the college football slate. Now let's make this clear. The off season is over. The excuses have been prepared.

1:01The spreadsheets have been ignored and those gambling counts while they're about to get a serious workout because we're going to be making a ton of picks on the gambling corner. Now I got four plays this week, four plays for Saturday and four opportunities and we're not going to play it safe and we're here to find the numbers that make us say, you know what? I like that number. Inter guards of spreads, the overunders. That's what we're really looking at. Now before we get started, let's get the responsible gambling disclaimer out of the way. These are picks, not promises and we're making educated guesses and I'm looking for value. We're trying to beat the number but this is college football. The ball bounce is funny. The officials, they get involved. Quarterback pass goes directly into the hands of lineback for absolutely no reason whatsoever and somehow a 17 point favor can turn into a fourth quarter sweat. That's college football. All in all, we're going to be putting four tickets on the board so let's get into it with

2:07my four plays for this first opening weekend on the dolphins talk dot com gambling corner. We're going to start first in Morgantown, West Virginia, West Virginia is hosting coastal Carolina and the mountaineers are laying 21 points. Now if you look back in 2025, the 2025 season, West Virginia was abysmal. They were four and eight. So you're probably wondering Tom, why the hell are you looking to have West Virginia cover a huge spread in their opening game at home looking to cover 21 points? Well, three touchdowns, but it is Morgantown, West Virginia, after all for a new kickoff and I'm perfectly comfortable laying that spread and here's why this is a completely different team for West Virginia coming into 2026. Retrogarie is his back. Michael Hawking's junior is taking over a quarterback and that's the name you really should keep your eye on when you're looking at West Virginia and who they are playing

3:09each week. Now the other big piece for West Virginia is Cam Cook returning to anchor what should be a very physical West Virginia rushing attack. That's right. They are going to look to pound the rock and coastal Carolina is probably not going to be ready for what's about to happen to them. The combination of Hawkins and Cook is really what you should be paying attention to and both can make some serious plays with their legs. When you combine that with the running game led by Cook, you've got a recipe for a team that can control the line of scrimmage. Coastal Carolina isn't coming into this thing in the intention of just being somebody's victim. You're not going to lay down, right? These guys are playing for their futures in the NFL and they're going to put their best effort on the field. It's just not going to be enough because coastal wants to turn it into a track me and that's not going to be the case with West Virginia who wants to pound the football.

4:10Here's what I need from West Virginia and it's very simple. They need to start fast. They can't let coastal Carolina hang around. They can't let them give any, they can't give them any confidence and they need to get the running game going early with Cam Cook and Hawkins Jr. needs to make plays with his legs to really get Coastal Carolina on their heels. You got to make Coastal pay from behind. If West Virginia goes up 14 nothing, it's going to start to turn into a blow. If it gets to halftime, it's 28, 10 West Virginia. We're talking and we're feeling good about this big spread for the mountain years. The biggest danger here is that West Virginia just wasn't good enough last year and we don't know what they are going to look like this year but Coastal Carolina is not a team that they should be worried about and that's why I'm not worried about this big spread. Rich Rodriguez will put his foot on the gas. West Virginia needs to make a statement out of the gate and that is why West Virginia

5:10is going to win and they're going to be starting strong here in 2026. Give me the mountain years laying the points in Morgantown. Now we're going to move on to pick two and now we're moving from West Virginia and we're moving to Austin, Texas where Texas is hosting Texas State and I love a high scoring game and folks I'm not touching the spread. It's 29 and a half, teetering towards 30 and a half in this game but I'm shopping for the points and I really love where the points are right now 59 and a half. So I'm taking the over in this game and here's why Texas ranked number five. Archmaning is sitting at quarterback and I know there's been a ridiculous amount of hype surrounding Archmaning. Obviously here at Dolphins Talk we've already started the March for Arch but you know what at some point the hype has to become production. Archmaning did not have a good season last year. Later part of the season he definitely looked more the part but the early part of the

6:11season he struggled mightily but now with experience Archmaning has a lot to prove and this is a very good first game for him to get off and running and what Manning produced last season he needs to amplify that. He threw for over 3100 yards, he had 26 touchdown passes and he had 10 rushing touchdowns. That's a big piece for Archmaning is his rushing aspect and that's the quarterback who could put points on the board in multiple ways and you'd like to see that. But here's where this gets interesting. Texas State is not a team that has just you know it's not a cupcake team. Texas State has some good talent to players on there and they can score. Brad Jackson is back. They have offensive weapons and they're not walking in an Austin thing in well I hope we don't lose by 50 right. They're going to take their shots. They're going to have their opportunities and when you're really looking at something in in regards of over under you're looking for the favorite Texas and you're looking at

7:14the underdog can the underdog put up enough points to cover the spread. So in a game like this I think Texas is going to win handily. I think they're going to win by 25 plus points. It's up to Texas State to really put up more points right more than what you may expect. If they can go out there and get 10 13 points on the board and Texas is running away with that Texas State is going to put up some garbage time points and that is where the spread is going to over under is really going to come into play. I think in Texas we'll score 40 Texas State hangs a couple touchdowns on the board and suddenly we're sitting there feeling good about it. So in the end give me Texas and Texas State going over 59 and a half and that is pick number two. I'm going to pick number three and we're moving to South Florida. We're heading to Tampa for the new look South Florida bulls taking on Florida International

8:18University and I am a huge fan of you us out this year with Brian Hartline in control. And now South Florida is probably not going to win the game by 40. They're probably not going to pitch a shutout but they should cover over two touchdowns in this game. Here's the big thing. They have to start fast. Brian Hartline coming from Ohio State. They were the busiest team in college football when it came to the transfer portal. They had 41 players. You got it. 41 players transfer to USF to join Brian Hartline. They have a lot of talent now at wide receiver and that's going to be that's going to be big. You and you have that much talent in Florida and national not a big you know they're not a slouch but USF bringing in so many talented players is going to make it hard to think

9:22that they're going to cover 14 and a half. I want the bulls to really take this game and I think they put this game away early in the third quarter and the home field advantage. Home field advantage is going to be very important for USF. I think the fan base is going to be very height with Brian Hartline on the sideline. Pick number three. Take the South Florida bulls minus 14 and a half. And now last but not least. Pick four is the main event. This is the one that I've been waiting to talk to you about but I again I saved the best for last when it comes to these picks. Clemson LSU, a Tiger Stadium and Tom Ernestie is taking Clemson plus 10 and a half. Give me Clemson and here's my question. Why am I getting double digits with Clemson and that's the entire argument. LSU is talented.

10:23They're at home. Len Kiffin is making his debut. Maybe with some NFL players we don't know yet. And I understand why LSU is favored. I think Sam Levit is a really good quarterback and I think he's going to do very good things in Len Kiffin system. But you're telling me I can take Clemson plus 10 and a half with devil Swaney his experience in big games. I like my chances there. Clemson defense also is very capable of keeping the game close. Last season Clemson did finish 30th nationally in scoring defense which is going to play a big factor in this game. When I'm getting double digits that's exactly the type of defense I want. They get better. They got more youthful and they still have some obviously some veteran players in key spots on that defense. Unless remember the last meeting LSU only won that game 17 to 10. That's it. 17 to 10. This isn't a match up where Clemson historically gets run out of the building.

11:27They can play with LSU. This is a big game for Clemson as well. Not just for LSU. And I'm going to take my chances. Now some of you may be thinking the argument against me in this is LSU. He's got the speed. LSU has more talent. LSU has the Sam Levit quarterback. And Lane Kiven is not exactly known for running three yards in a cloud of dust. He's going to be moving the football. He's going to be pushing the ball down the field. So Clemson for me has to do three things really well. They can't turn the ball over. They have to protect it at all costs. They got to stop the explosive plays from LSU. And they have to make LSU earn every single yard. And if they can do that, run business. But this game is tight within one score going into the fourth quarter. That's probably where it's going to finish. Clemson might make a run late. Try to get some points on the board. Maybe LSU kneels it out. I think LSU is going to win the game. But I don't think they're going to cover 10 plus points.

12:29So that is why I like Clemson. To lose the game. But I believe they will score 20 plus points. I don't think LSU is going to score more than 30. So that's where I see it happen. I think 30 to 20 LSU, which means Clemson covers a spread at 10 and a half. And that is the four picks. So there you have it. The first card of the 2026 Dolphinstalk.com gambling corning is officially locked in. We're going to run this back real quick. I love West Virginia lane, the 21 Texas state and Texas over 59 and a half. South Florida minus 14 and a half at home against FIU. And for the main event, one more time, this is a huge game right out of the gate. Clemson plus 10 and a half covering against LSU. Four picks, four numbers, four opportunities to make ourselves look really,

13:29really smart or really, really stupid. And that's the beauty of gambling. And remember, these picks are not promises. But responsibly, don't chase losses and never bet money you can't afford to lose. But if you're asking what Tom Urce is putting on the board tonight, that's my four. So let's get your popcorn ready. Get those beers, cracks or whatever you love to drink. And let's get those apps open. And now speaking of apps, one particular app that I believe you all should use. And if you're watching on YouTube and the lower portion of the screen, this show is sponsored by Kelsey. Kelsey, it's a new football season. It brings some questions who makes the playoffs, who wins their division, who takes the home the title. I'm Kelsey, America's number one prediction market platform lets you trade those predictions

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16:39That will do it for the first week of the Dolphinstalk.com gambling corner. I am your host Tom Ernesty. Thanks, Cashem Tickets. Everyone have a great Saturday and enjoy the games. This episode of the Dolphinstalk.com podcast was brought to you by Keynes Wear. Everyone go to Keyneswear.com for the best and most affordable Miami Dolphins apparel on the internet. They have you covered if you need a Miami Dolphins head hoodie, t-shirt, polo or anything with a Miami Dolphins logo on it for the home office or any type of apparel. They also have stuff for the Miami Hurricanes, the Florida Panthers, the Miami Heat and the Miami Marlins. If you're in South Florida, stop by their shop at 2655 South University Drive in Davy, Florida. Keyneswear has it all. Keyneswear.com, you're one stop shop for all of the best Miami Dolphins apparel on the internet.

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