DEEP DIVE: Where did all the apprentices go? We’re about to really need them

0:00This is a Triple J podcast. G'day, it's Dave Markhazy with your Forhax Deep Dive, and this week we're gonna talk tradies and apprentices. Because good news if you're a tradie, experts are saying we're about to experience what they're calling a blue collar gold rush. Yeah, it looks like demand is spiking for skilled workers because there is a whole lot of stuff to build. I'm talking houses, infrastructure for the AI boom, stuff like data centers. But what happens if we actually don't have enough workers to get all this stuff done? There's new research out that shows demand is high for tradies, particularly electricians, you sparkies. But this means that we'll be short tens of thousands of workers over the next few years. And there has been a trade-e shortage for a while. The apprentice dropout rates might have something to do with that. But I can really see why it's really intimidating for apprentices

1:00in their first couple of years to drop out because the culture is so different and the work load you're doing is something you'd never really learn in school too much. So why is this happening exactly? And what can be done to get those numbers up? We just don't have enough employers offering trade apprenticeships at the moment. Employer incentives needs another look at. We're about to dive into all of that soon, but first, Shalala Madora has been looking into this. Lyndon's 22 and recently qualified as an electrician working in the rail industry until he was offered an apprenticeship. He'd always just assumed he'd go to uni. I honestly wanted to study history or something. Really came out of nowhere and also offered to me and I took it. Once he was in the apprenticeship, he realized the doors it could open. I was able to actually obtain my year 12 certificate and do my apprenticeship at the same time. And I thought this was a really great option to find a good, secure job that could last forever in the future. He knows that there'll be demand for sparkies from a bunch of industries. And that really appeals to him. As we're basically going to this green revolution

2:01within Australia and really pushing for renewable, definitely, electricians are going to be in the highest demand for trades and for a really, really long time. Lyndon's onto something. New research out today by the Powering Skills Organization has found that demand for trades, especially electricians, will mean we're short tens of thousands of workers by 2030. What we can see now is that workforce demand has actually increased to up to 72,000 additional energy trades workers. We can see that there's at least 13,000 additional energy trades workers that would be needed. Head of Powering Skills Organization at their Middleton explains where the demand is coming from. We know that data centers have emerged as a significant workforce demand driver. And the housing accord housing demand also is changing the number of trades that are needed. Head of the Electrical Trades Union, Michael Wright, who is also on the board of Powering Skills, says there's a seismic shift happening. We're going through two industrial revolutions at once.

3:02We're changing what powers our grid and simultaneously we're changing what is powered by the grid. He says there's been a shortage for a long time. We've had our temporary shortage of electricians since 1981, but this is about to go critical. So what does it mean for young people who are currently in a trade or considering one? Some in the industry say it could mean more opportunities and more cash. Trades start up founder Tim Cullen posted about it on TikTok. He says Trades will be able to earn more as big infrastructure projects like data centers can mean bigger paychecks. I think it's evidence of the blue collar gold rush that's happening in real time. The country's going through a construction super cycle. But Michael is concerned about what that competition means for smaller, less lucrative projects. We are really worried about it being stripping out of the housing sector in particular, where typically the wages are a bit lower. An auntie is worried about what that competition means for small business owners. Larger, major infrastructure projects which can often pay more, coaching of third and fourth year apprentices

4:03from the small and medium sized businesses who typically have provided the pipeline of apprentices into the system. Michael says there's no shortage of people waiting to take up a trade, but there simply aren't enough avenues to train them. For every apprenticeship that gets advertised with a good union employer, we're seeing ratios of up to 600 applicants per apprenticeship on offer. And completion rates are still pretty low. Fewer than three out of five apprentices finish with a trade skill after six years. Look, I always encourage people to do an apprenticeship if they're thinking about one, but I also don't bullshit them. Michael's not sugarcoding the reality of doing an apprenticeship. First two years in particular are rough. The maths is hard and the wages unless you're on a union job. The wages are pretty abysmal under the award. According to the National Centre for Vocational Education Research, the main reason people drop out of an apprenticeship is because of wages and working conditions. Lyndon's found it tough too. So I can really see why it's really intimidating for apprentices in the first couple of years to drop out

5:05because the culture is so different and the work load you're doing is something you'd never really learn in school too much. But he reckons it's the best thing he's ever done and he's urging other young people to consider getting into a trade. This is a huge demand, I think, it's a great time for any young person interested in starting a trade to get in now. I would highly recommend it. You're listening to Hack on Triple J. Shalala Madoro reporting there and Hack did ask to speak with the skills and training minister. He wasn't available today, but a spokesperson said that the government is targeting investments to make an electrical apprenticeship more attractive to young Australians and grow the workforce. The spokesperson also saying that there has been growth specifically in electrical apprentice completions but there is still more work to be done. Hearing from you on the text line at the moment and there's some mixed kind of responses. Someone says, I just recently finished an apprenticeship after finishing work at an eight year career as an emergency nurse. Another person though saying,

6:05I'm a qualified mechanic and it's better off for me to be a delivery driver than to do my trade. The wage just isn't there for four years of education. Look, let's dive into this a bit more now with Ben Barden, who's head of the National Australian Apprenticeships Association. G'day Ben, thank you so much for joining us on Hack. Hi, Dave. How are you? I'm well, I'm wondering what you think of these research that's out today because it doesn't sound like great news that we're more than 70,000 traders sort of what we need to get all this work done in the years ahead. Yeah, and our estimate is actually a little bit higher than that. If you look at the 20 year average, we've had about 2.5% of the workforce in apprenticeships and traineeships. And that would quite to about 370,000 people doing an apprenticeship or traineeship at the moment. But the latest figures show that we're at about 282,000. So substantially below what we need. And primarily that's related to having

7:06enough employers in the system. As Michael and Wright said, there's plenty of interest in doing some of the higher pay trades in particular. But we just don't have enough employers offering trade apprenticeships at the moment. How big of an issue are the apprentice dropout rates as well? Because this is something we've been hearing about for a while, the data telling us that half of all apprentices do end up dropout before, dropping out, sorry, before, finishing. Why is that happening? Well, as a complex set of reasons, and actually the six year picture is a little bit better than that. So the figures that we're looking at at the moment cover that COVID period. And of course, that was highly disruptive restaurants for hairdressers for a whole range of trades. And so a lot of people pause their apprenticeship and then recommence when they were able to get back into it. So you're seeing a bit of that in the figures. But there's always been an issue with completion rates.

8:08It's similar in many respects to university, though. Only about 42% of undergraduates have completed their training within four years. And after six years, it's about 63%. So we're similar to the university sector. It's just under 60%. But there are some things that could be done to improve that still further. This is Huckham Dave Markezi. I'm speaking with Ben Barton from the National Australian Apprenticeships Association. And we're talking about a shortfall in tradies. And the number of tradies we're going to need to get all this work done that's scheduled for the years ahead. We're hearing from you on the text line. Someone says, I'm a carpenter. You want more tradies? Make it easier for small employers to employ apprentices. It's just not affordable. That person's saying another person. I just started an electrical apprenticeship at 35. I'm loving it. But I do see why people drop out. Toxic masculinity, poor management, a lack of care with workplace health and safety and injury.

9:08But the work is great. The lifestyle is world class. That person's saying. And someone else saying, I've been a plumber running my own business for years. It's never been harder. The government is just taxing the hell out of us and making it so hard to run a business these days. It's almost not worth it. Ben, we're also hearing from people who are saying, look, a lot of the work that's being done at the moment, we're relying on workers who are coming from overseas. I'm wondering if that is a concern for you, if you're hearing what the political debate is around migration levels and bringing in people from overseas. And if that's going to affect these numbers, too. Yeah, there's always been an issue with temporary skilled migration and whether that takes particularly training-ship type jobs. When you unpack the overseas migration figures, a lot of people that come here are backpackers and work as part of that visa category. A lot of people are international students and they study universities and come and go.

10:12And so we don't see a high degree of substitution for trade jobs. You can come through if you've done a trade in another country. You can come through trades, recognition, Australia and have your qualification recognized. So that's not such a big factor. But I think there's always a challenge to make sure that there are enough good job opportunities for local kids coming through the education system so that it gives social permission for the levels of migration that we need to grow the economy. Just quickly, Ben, we're running out of time. But what do you think we really need to be prioritising right now to lift those apprenticeship levels and those trade levels? Well, employer incentives need another look at. The governments had a look at it and they've reduced them and from the first of January next year, they're going to reduce it all further. But we're not keeping pace with the growth of the labour force

11:13and I've got deep concerns that we're not keeping pace with the essential skills that we need. So we're going to have to try and provide better support for employers to create those jobs. And that's the cornerstone because there's plenty of interest in taking the jobs up. But we need to better support employers to create the opportunities in the first instance. Yeah, we're hearing from so many people right now, Ben, as you can appreciate a lot of tradeys on the text line, who have their own thoughts and what they think needs to change. Appreciate your time, Ben Barden, from the National Australian Apprenticeships Association. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, thank you. And someone on the text line now saying, I've been a mechanic for seven years. The money is not great for a trade that requires a lot of spend on tools and takes a big toll on the body. Someone else just saying, pay your apprentices better. That's not hard. Someone saying, you know, Tafe took years to finalise my qualification and largely didn't support me throughout my apprenticeship. If you don't want dropouts,

12:13Tafe needs more funding and more teachers. That person saying, someone else, Brisbane is doomed to host the Olympics. There's no way the amount of infrastructure is going to get complete before then. And another person saying, I find it hard to believe that there's a shortage of apprentices when completion in my area is at an all-time high. But I will say that rates and pays are definitely not keeping up with inflation. Another person being an electrician for a long time have had 20 plus apprentices. A big issue is that laws have changed to have one-to-one supervision, which makes it unattractive and expensive to employers. Yeah, how good to hear all of those different perspectives, especially from tradis themselves, people who are maybe in an apprenticeship now or have been in one, decided to give it up because there are a variety of reasons as we heard that people might not finish their apprenticeships. But it's good to check in every now and then and we'll definitely be keeping across this one.

13:15Obviously, data centers, huge talking point at the moment. People are really keen to hear how that's all going to progress. That is all we've got time for on Hack for Now. Please chuck us a like on this podcast, Subscribe, even. That's what you do on a podcast, isn't it? You subscribe. Subscribe to this podcast. Go follow us on socials at TripleJHack on Instagram and TikTok. I'll catch you next time.